Anda di halaman 1dari 17

MC LC

I.

Tnh hung........................................................................................................ 4
1.1.

Bn ting anh .............................................................................................................. 4

1.2.

Bn dch ...................................................................................................................... 5

II. S lc v WBS v thi gian, chi ph c tnh ...................................................... 7


2.1.

Cu trc chia nh cng vic (WBS) ......................................................................... 7

2.1.1.

Khi nim.............................................................................................................. 7

2.1.2.

Tc dng ca WBS i vi d n ......................................................................... 9

2.2.

c tnh thi gian .................................................................................................... 10

2.2.1.

Mt s nguyn tc chung trong c tnh thi gian thc hin d n .................. 10

2.2.2.

Cc phng php c tnh thi gian.................................................................. 11

2.3.

c tnh chi ph ........................................................................................................ 12

2.3.1.

Cc nguyn tc c tnh chi ph ......................................................................... 12

2.3.2.

Cc phng php c tnh chi ph ..................................................................... 12

III. Gii quyt tnh hung ..................................................................................................... 14


3.1.

trng hp ny, bn s lm g nu bn l nh qun l d n? ....................... 14

3.2. Cc nh qun l d n cp trn c ang i ng hng trong vic khai trin


cng vic c tnh?.............................................................................................................. 16
3.3.

Nhng k thut c tnh no nn c s dng trong d n ny? .................... 17

DANH MC HNH
Hinh 1: S cu trc chi nh cng vic (WBS).......................................................................... 8
Hinh 2: iu kin chn c tnh t thi gian v chi ph t trn xung hoc t di ln ................... 14
Hin h 3: c tnh chi ph v thi gian t di ln........................................................................ 15

BNG PHN CNG CNG VIC

H v tn
m Truyn M
L Th M
Nguyn Bnh Phng Tho Nhi
Hong Th Tho
V Minh Th

Nhim v
Trnh by power point
Gii quyt tnh hung s 1
Dch case study v tng hp word
Gii quyt tnh hung s 2
Gii quyt tnh hung s 3

Mc
hon thnh
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

I.

Tnh hung
1.1. Bn ting anh

Estimating Project Times and Costs:


Sharp Printing, AG
Source: E.W. Larson & C.F. Gray, 2011
Three years ago the Sharp Printing (SP) strategic management group set a goal of having a
color laser printer available for the consumer and small business market for less than $200. A
few months later the senior management met off-site to discuss the new product. The results
of this meeting were a set of general technical specifications along with major deliverables, a
product launch date, and a cost estimate based on prior experience.
Shortly afterward, a meeting was arranged for middle management explaining the project
goals, major responsibilities, the project start date, and importance of meeting the product
launch date within the cost estimate. Members of all departments involved attended the
meeting. Excitement was high. Although everyone saw the risks as high, the promised
rewards for the company and the personnel were emblazoned in their minds. A few
participants questioned the legitimacy of the project duration and cost estimates. A couple of
R&D people were worried about the technology required to produce the high-quality product
for less than $200. But given the excitement of the moment, everyone agreed the project was
worth doing and doable. The color laser printer project was to have the highest project priority
in the company.
Lauren was selected to be the project manager. She had 15 years of experience in printer
design and manufacture, which included successful management of several projects related to
printers for commercial markets. Since she was one of those uncomfortable with the project
cost and time estimates, she felt getting good bottom-up time and cost estimates for the
deliverables was her first concern. She quickly had a meeting with the significant stakeholders
to create a WBS identifying the work packages and organizational unit responsible for
implementing the work packages. Lauren stressed she wanted time and cost estimates from
those who would do the work or were the most knowledgeable, if possible. Getting estimates
from more than one source was encouraged. Estimates were due in two weeks.
The compiled estimates were placed in the WBS/OBS. The corresponding cost estimate
seemed to be in error. The cost estimate was $1,250,000 over the senior management
estimate; this represents about a 20 percent overrun! The time estimate from the developed
project network was only four months over the top management time estimate. Another
meeting was scheduled with the significant stakeholders to check the estimates and to
brainstorm for alternative solutions; the cost and time estimates appeared to be reasonable.
Some of the suggestions for the brainstorming session are listed below.
Change scope.
4

Outsource technology design.


Use the priority matrix (found in Chapter 4) to get top management to clarify their
priorities.
Partner with another organization or build a research consortium to share costs and to
share the newly developed technology and production methods.
Cancel the project.
Commission a break-even study for the laser printer.
Very little in the way of concrete savings was identified, although there was consensus that
time could be compressed to the market launch date, but at additional costs.
Lauren met with the marketing (Connor), production (Kim), and design (Gage) managers
who yielded some ideas for cutting costs, but nothing significant enough to have a large
impact. Gage remarked, I wouldnt want to be the one to deliver the message to top
management that their cost estimate is $1,250,000 off! Good luck, Lauren.
1. At this point, what would you do if you were the project manager?
2. Was top management acting correctly in developing an estimate?
3. What estimating techniques should be used for a mission critical project such as this?
1.2. Bn dch

Thi gian v chi ph d ton ca d n


Cng ty Sharp Printing, AG
Ngun: E.W. Larson & C.F. Gray, 2011
Ba nm trc, nhm qun l chin lc ca cng ty Sharp Printing (SP) t ra mc tiu sn
xut ra mt my in mu lasern cho khch hng v doanh nghip nh vi gi r hn 200 la.
Vi thng sau, nhm qun l cp cao tho lun v sn phm mi. Cc kt qu ca cuc hp
l mt tp hp cc thng s k thut ni chung cng vi cc kt qu chnh, ngy ra mt sn
phm v chi ph c tnh da vo kinh nghim trc.
Ngay sau , mt cuc hp c sp xp cho cc nh qun l trung cp gii thch v
mc tiu ca d n, trch nhim chnh, ngy bt u d n v im quan trng ca cuc hp
l ngy ra mt sn phm trong khong chi ph d ton. Thnh vin ca tt c cc ban ngnh
lin quan n tham d cuc hp. Tm l hng phn kh cao. Mc d tt c mi ngi nhn
thy c ri ro cao nhng th lao c ha trao cho cng ty v nhn vin c ra
trong tm tr h. Mt vi ngi hi v tnh hp php ca thi gian d n v chi ph d
ton. Mt vi ngi trong b phn Nghin cu v Pht trin sn phm cm thy lo ngi v
cng ngh sn xut sn phm cht lng cao vi chi ph di 200 . Tuy vy, vi s phn
5

khch thi im hin ti, tt c mi ngi ng d n ny ng thc hin v c th thc


hin c. D n v my in mu laser c u tin hng u trong cng ty.
Lauren c chn lm nh qun l d n. C c 15 nm kinh nghim trong thit k v sn
xut my in trong bao gm vic qun l thnh cng mt d n lin quan n my in cho th
trng thng mi. Bi v c y l mt trong nhng ngi khng hi lng vi thi gian v chi
ph d ton ca d n nn c cm thy rng vic nh gi c c lng chi ph v thi gian
t di ln cho cc kt qu l nhim v u tin ca c. C y nhanh chng m mt cuc
hp vi cc bn lin quan lp ra WBS, xc nh cc gi cng vic v n v t chc chu
trch nhim thc hin cc cng vic . Lauren nhn mnh rng c mun c chi ph v thi
gian c tnh t nhng ngi m nhim cng vic hoc am hiu nht nu c th. Vic thu
thp nhng kt qu c tnh t nhiu ngun c khuyn khch. Cng vic c lng c
thc hin trong 2 tun.
Nhng gi tr c tnh c lp ra da trn WBS/OBS. Nhng dng nh chi ph c tnh
tng ng sai. Chi ph c c tnh vt qu 1,250,000 so vi c tnh ca cc nh
qun l cp cao. iu ny th hin vt qu 20%. Thi gian c tnh t mng li pht
trin d n ch vt qu 4 thng so vi c tnh ca nh qun l cp trn. Mt cuc hp khc
c sp xp vi cc bn lin quan kim tra li cc d ton v suy ngh gii php thay
th; chi ph v thi gian c tnh dng nh hp l. Mt vi ngh c a ra di
y:

Thay i phm vi d n
Thu thit k cng ngh t bn ngoi
S dng ma trn u tin nh qun l cp trn sng lc mc u tin
Kt hp vi nhng t chc khc hoc xy dng mt t hp nghin cu chia s chi
ph v cc cng ngh pht trin cng nh phng php sn xut mi
Hy b d n
a ra nghin cu v im ha vn cho my in mu laser

Rt t gii php tit kim c th c a ra mc d c s nht tr rng c th tung sn


phm ra th trng sm hn nhng cn tng thm cc chi ph.
Lauren gp cc nh qun l tip th (Connor), qun l sn xut (Kim) v qun l thit
k (Gage) nhng ngi a ra tng cho vic ct gim chi ph nhng khng c g
ng k c mt tc ng ln. Gage nhn xt Ti khng mun l ngi cung cp
tin nhn cho nh qun l cp trn rng chi ph c tnh ca h thp hn 1,250,000 !
Chc may mn, Lauren!
Cu hi 1: trng hp ny, bn s lm g nu bn l nh qun l d n?

Cu hi 2: Cc nh qun l d n cp trn c ang i ng hng trong vic khai trin cng


vic c tnh?
Cu hi 3: Nhng k thut c tnh no nn c s dng trong d n ny?
II.

S lc v WBS v thi gian, chi ph c tnh


2.1.Cu trc chia nh cng vic (WBS)
2.1.1. Khi nim

Cu trc chia nh cng vic l qu trnh phn chia lin tc cc u ra v cng vic ca d n
thnh cc thnh phn nh hn c th qun l c. Cu trc chia nh cng vic l s chia nh
lin tc theo cu trc phn r mt cch h thng xut pht t u ra ca d n m i d n
tin hnh nhm t c mc tiu d n v to ra cc u ra cho d n. Cc cp chi tit k
tip nhau ca WBS trnh by cc cng vic ca d n mt cch chi tit hn. p dng cu trc
chia nh cng vic gip cho nh qun l d n bit chc chn rng tt c cc sn phm v
khi lng cng vic c xc nh, gip kt hp d n vi c cu t chc cng ty phn
cng trch nhim thc hin cho tng b phn v c nhn, v thit lp c s cho kim sot
thc hin d n. V c bn, WBS l bn phc tho ton b d n vi cc cp chi tit khc
nhau.
S bn di trnh by nhng cch thc phn nhm ch yu thng c p dng trong
pht trin cu trc chia nh cng vic. WBS bt u cp u tin vi d n l u ra cui
cng. Cc u ra chnh, hoc cc h thng chnh, hoc cc giai on chnh ca d n c xc
nh trc, tip theo cc phn vic nh hn hon thnh cc phn vic ln c xc
nh. Qu trnh chia nh c lp li nh vy cho n khi mc chi tit ca u ra nh n
mc c th qun l c v mt ngi c th chu trch nhim v kt qu thc hin. u ra
nh nht thng c phn chia thnh cc thnh phn nh hn gi l gi cng vic. Gi cng
vic l cp thp nht trong cu trc chia nh cng vic v l cp chi tit m chi ph v
thi gian thc hin cng vic c th c tnh mt ng tin cy v c th qun l c. WBS
cung cp thng tin cc mc chi tit khc nhau dnh cho cc cp qun l khc nhau. Cp
1 v cp 2 trnh by ton b thng tin v mc tiu d n v ph hp cho lnh o cp
cao, cp 3 v 4 cho lnh o cp trung v cp 5 l nhng thng tin rt chi tit ph hp
cho cp qun l thp nht.

Hinh 1: S cu trc chi nh cng vic (WBS)

2.1.2. Tc dng ca WBS i vi d n


WBS xc nh tt c cc yu t ca d n theo mt cu trc nht nh v thit lp nn cc mi
quan h vi u ra cui cng ca d n. Hnh dung d n l mt gi cng vic ln v c
chia nh k tip nhau thanh cc gi cng vic nh hn, nh vy d n chnh l tng hp ca
tt c cc gi cng vic nh chi tit .
-

H tr cho vic nh gi kt qu thc hin v chi ph, tin v cht lng tt c


cc cp qun l trong cng ty trong sut chu k d n.
Cung cp cho nh lnh o thng tin ph hp vi tng cp qun l, v d cp qun l
cao nht quan tm n u ra chnh ca d n, trong khi cp qun l thp nht s
ph trch cc u ra nh v cc gi cng vic.
Khi pht trin WBS, trch nhim thc hin cc hot ng d n c phn cng
cho cc b phn v c nhn trong cng ty khi kt hp WBS vi c cu t chc ca
cng ty (OBS).
Gip cho nh qun l lp k hoch cng tc, iu cng vic v d on ngn sch
do WBS cung cp mt khun kh theo di chi ph v kt qu thc hin bng cch
tng hp chi ph thc t v chi ph k hoch ca cc gi cng vic nh thnh cc yu
t ln hn gip cho vic o lng kt qu thc hin c th theo di theo cp qun l
v theo kt qu u ra.
WBS xc nh cc knh thng tin v h tr trong vic iu phi cc b phn trong d
n do WBS cho bit trch nhim ca c nhn v b phn trong vic thc hin cc phn
cng vic d n.
Mc chi tit nht ca WBS c gi l gi cng vic. Cc gi cng vic l cc
nhim v thc hin trong mt khong thi gian ngn, c im bt u v kt thc, c
s dng ngun lc v tiu hao chi ph. Mi gi cng vic l mt im mt kim sot.
Nh qun l gi cng vic chu trch nhim theo di vic hon thnh gi cng vic
m bo ng tin , ng ngn sch, v p ng cc tiu chun cht lng. Kinh
nghim thc t cho thy mi gi cng vic khng nn ko di qu 10 ngy lm vic
hoc mt k bo co (hoc p dng mt quy tc chung l gi cng vic khng ko di
qu 0.5% hoc 1% tng qu thi gian thc hin d n). Nu mt gi cng vic c thi
gian thc hin di qu 10 ngy lm vic, cn kim tra hoc thit lp cc mc thi gian
gim st trong qu trnh thc hin v d cch 3 hoc 5 ngy tin thc hin v cc
vn pht sinh s sm c pht hin trc khi tr nn qu mun. Mi gi cng vic
trong cu trc WBS cng c lp vi gi cng vic khc ca d n cng tt.
Cn phn bit gia u ra nh nht v gi cng vic. Thng thng u ra nh nht
ca cu trc WBS thng bao gm mt s gi cng vic do hai hoc ba phng ban
chc nng trong cng ty thc hin. V vy cc u ra nh nht khng c thi gian
hon thnh ca t bn thn n, khng tiu dng ngun lc v ti chnh trc tip. Thi
gian thc hin cho mt u ra nh nht c xc nh da trn gi cng vic bt u
9

thc hin u tin v gi cng vic kt thc sau cng v s chnh lnh chnh l thi
gian thc hin ca u ra nh nht . Cc ngun lc v chi ph thc hin u ra
chnh l tng ca cc ngun lc v chi ph ca vic thc hin tt c cc gi cng vic
cu thnh nn u ra nh nht . Cc u ra ln hn s c s dng trong vic gim
st tnh hnh thc hin d n cho nn gi cng vic l n v c s c s dng trong
lp k hoch, iu v kim sot tnh hnh thc hin d n.
Gi cng vic cung cp nhng thng tin sau:
Xc nh ni dung cng vic l g
Xc nh thi gian cn thit hon thnh gi cng vic
Xc nh ngn sch theo thi gian hon thanh gi cng vic
Xc nh cc ngun lc cn thit thc hin gi cng vic
Xc nh mt c nhn ph trch gi cng vic
Xc nh cc im mt kim sot theo di tin thc hin.

Mt u ra nh nht bao gm nhiu gi cng vic v thng do ti thiu hai n v trong


cng ty thc hin. V d u ra bo mch ca a cng yu cu phi thc hin by gi cng
vic v do bn b phn trong cng ty thc hin bao gm b phn thit k, sn xut, kim tra
v phn mm (xem s trn). Cc gi cng vic nm trong giao din gia u ra nh nht
v b phn chc nng ph trch cp qun l thp nht gi l u mi kim sot. Cc u
mi kim sot s c nh m s to ra mt cu trc tng hp thng tin v chi ph, tin
v ngun lc. Mi u mi kim sot l mt im mt qun l v phm vi, chi ph, tin
c tch hp li theo chiu dc kt ni vi cc u ra v theo chiu ngang kt ni vi c cu
t chc d n ng thi so snh vi gi tr to ra nh gi kt qu thc hin. Mt u mi
kim sot (cost account hoc control account) c th bao gm mt hoc nhiu gi cng vic
tuy nhin mt gi cng vic ch kt hp duy nht vi mt u mi kim sot.
2.2.c tnh thi gian
c tnh thi gian thc hin cng vic l qu trnh c tnh cc khong thi gian cn thit
hon thnh cng vic vi mc huy ng ngun lc nht nh.
2.2.1. Mt s nguyn tc chung trong c tnh thi gian thc hin d n
Ngi c tnh am hiu su v hot ng: Nhng ngi tham gia vo c tnh thi gian thc
hin cng vic phi l nhng ngi c kin thc v kinh nghim chuyn su v cng vic.
S dng nhiu ngi cng tham gia c tnh: Mi ngi tham gia c tnh u b nh hng
bi nhng sai lch mang tnh c nhn nht nh cho nn hn ch nhng sai lch ny nn s
dng nhiu ngi cng c tnh cho tng vn . Thng qua s bn bc trao i gia nhng
ngi tham gia s gip hn ch bt s cc oan trong vic a ra nhng con s c tnh m
khng phn nh ng tnh hnh thc t.
10

c tnh trong iu kin bnh thng: iu kin bnh thng v ngun lc huy ng, chuyn
mn, phng php lm vic, cng lm vic, thi gian lm trong ngy trong tun
S dng thng nht v nht qun n v o thi gian trong c tnh thi gian thc hin cc
hot ng.
Cc c tnh l c lp vi nhau: c tnh thi gian thc hin ca mt hot ng c lp vi
cc c tnh thi gian thc hin ca tt c cc hot ng khc
Cc c tnh thi gian thc hin tng hot ng cn cn nhc n tnh ri ro trong vic thc
hin hot ng.
2.2.2. Cc phng php c tnh thi gian
c tnh v nh gi ca cc chuyn gia: Mt phng php c tnh c cho l tin cy nht
chnh l c tnh ca cc chuyn gia c kinh nghim trong vic thc hin cc hot ng cc
d n tng t trc . Cc c tnh ca cc chuyn gia sau c tng hp li thnh c
tnh chung cho tng hot ng.
Phng php tng t hoc da trn tiu chun: Da trn tnh tng t vi d n trc trn
cc kha cnh nh thi hn hon thnh, kinh ph, quy m, mc phc tp, lm c s cho
vic c tnh ngun lc v thi gian thc hin tng hot ng vi s iu chnh ph hp cho
d n mi. Phng php tng t c th p dng cho ton b d n, tng hng mc d n, v
cho tng hot ng c th.
Phng php tham s: Phng php tham s da trn mi quan h thng k trong qu kh
gia cc i lng c tnh cc ngun lc, thi gian v chi ph thc hin hot ng.
Phng php c tnh ba im: c tnh thi gian v chi ph thc hin mt cng vic c th
chnh xc hn nu chng ta tnh n mc ri ro trong vic thc hin cng vic v di
khng chc chn ca thi gian thc hin cng vic. Khi nim c tnh ba im l mt k
thut p dng bt ngun t PERT s dng ba c tnh xc nh gn ng cho thi gian
thc hin mt hot ng.
- Thi gian c kh nng sy ra nht (m). L thi gian thc hin cng vic trong iu
kin bnh thng v phn b cc ngun lc, nng sut lao ng, s mong i v mc
sn sng cho hot ng v cc iu kin thc hin khc.
- Thi gian thc hin trong iu kin tt nht (lc quan - a). l thi gian thc hin cng
vic trong iu kin tt nht c th .
- Thi gian thc hin trong iu kin km thun li nht (bi quan - b) l thi gian thc
hin trong tnh hung kh khn nht .
- Thi gian trung bnh thc hin cng vic tnh c bng cch ly trung bnh c trng
s ca ba c tnh trn theo cng thc sau: t = (a + 4m + b)/6.
Phn tch d phng: c tnh thi gian v ngun lc thc hin cng vic c th bao gm c
thi gian v ngun lc d phng p dng cho mc ri ro trong qu trnh thc hin cng
vic. Thi gian d phng c th xc nh theo mt t l phn trm nht nh ca thi gian
thc hin cng vic hoc theo mt phng php nh lng thng k no .Thi gian d
11

phng c th xc nh cho c d n v cho tng cng vic v phi c ghi chp r rng trong
ti liu v qun l tin d n.Vic c tnh ngun lc v thi gian thc hin d n c th
tin hnh t trn xung (top down) hoc t di ln (bottom up).
- c tnh t trn xung l c tnh tng thi gian thc hin ton b d n do cc
chuyn gia c kinh nghim v cc d n tng t v/hoc do cc nh qun l cp cao
tin hnh a ra c tnh. c tnh t trn xung thng c p dng trong nhng
trng hp, v d nh: d n chin lc quan trng, d n c mc khng chc chn
cao, d n ni b nh, d n c phm vi hay thay i (v d cc d n v pht trin h
thng thng tin).
- c tnh t di ln l xut pht t cc yu t chi tit ca d n nh t cc gi cng
vic trong cu trc chia nh cng vic WBS v cc hot ng trong s mng d n
pht trin t phng php ng gng c tnh cc ngun lc, chi ph, thi gian
thc hin tng hot ng ri tng hp nn thnh c tnh tng ngun lc, chi ph, thi
gian thc hin c d n. c tnh t di ln thng c p dng trong cc trng
hp nh do yu cu ca qun l phi c tnh chi tit, do cc d n k kt hp ng
cn phi c tnh chi tit, do khch hng yu cu phi gii trnh chi tit v thi gian v
chi ph thc hin d n.
2.3.c tnh chi ph
c tnh chi ph l qu trnh d bo v c tnh ngun lc ti chnh thc hin cc hot
ng ca d n.
c tnh chi ph l d bo v c tnh cc ngun lc ti chnh thc hin cc hot ng d
n. c tnh chi ph thng c biu din di n v o tin t (v d ng), t nhin trong
mt s trng hp c th c th dng n v o khc, v d nh ngy cng.
c tnh chi ph phi c iu chnh lin tc trong xut qu trnh thc hin d n phn
nh kp thi nhng thng tin chi tit sn c v d n. Mc chnh xc ca c tnh s c
nng ln khi d n tri qua cc giai on ca chu k sng cho nn c tnh chi ph l mt qu
trnh lp li trong cc giai on thc hin.
2.3.1. Cc nguyn tc c tnh chi ph
Ngi c tnh am hiu su v hot ng.
S dng nhiu ngi cng tham gia c tnh.
c tnh trong iu kin bnh thng.
Cc c tnh l c lp vi nhau.
Cc c tnh chi ph thc hin tng hot ng cn cn nhc n tnh ri ro trong vic thc
hin hot ng.
2.3.2. Cc phng php c tnh chi ph
c tnh da trn nh gi ca cc chuyn gia. Mt phng php c tnh c cho l tin
12

cy nht chnh l c tnh ca cc chuyn gia c kinh nghim trong vic thc hin cc hot
ng cc d n tng t trc . Cc c tnh chi ph ca cc chuyn gia sau c tng
hp li thnh c tnh chung v chi ph cho thc hin tng hot ng.
Phng php tng t hoc da trn tiu chun. Da trn tnh tng t vi d n trc trn
cc kha cnh nh thi hn hon thnh, kinh ph, quy m, mc phc tp, lm c s cho
vic c tnh chi ph thc hin tng hot ng vi s iu chnh ph hp cho d n mi.
Phng php tng t c th p dng cho ton b d n, tng hng mc d n, v cho tng
hot ng c th.
Phng php tham s. Phng php tham s da trn mi quan h thng k trong qu kh
gia cc i lng c tnh chi ph thc hin hot ng.
Phng php c tnh ba im. c tnh chi ph thc hin mt cng vic c th chnh xc
hn nu chng ta tnh n mc ri ro trong vic thc hin cng vic v di khng chc
chn ca chi ph hin cng vic. Khi nim c tnh ba im l mt k thut p dng bt
ngun t PERT s dng ba c tnh xc nh gn ng cho chi ph thc hin mt hot
ng.
- Chi ph c kh nng sy ra nht (Cm). L chi ph thc hin cng vic trong iu kin
bnh thng v phn b cc ngun lc, nng sut lao ng, s mong i v mc
sn sng cho hot ng v cc iu kin thc hin khc.
- Chi ph thc hin trong iu kin tt nht (Co). l chi ph thc hin cng vic trong
iu kin thun li nht
- Chi ph thc hin trong iu kin kh khn nht (Cp) l chi ph thc hin trong tnh
km thun li nht.
- Chi ph trung bnh thc hin cng vic tnh c bng cch ly trung bnh c trng s
ca ba c tnh trn theo cng thc sau: C = (Co + 4Cm + Cp)/6.
Phn tch d phng. c tnh chi ph thc hin cng vic c th bao gm c chi ph d phng
p dng cho mc ri ro trong qu trnh thc hin cng vic. Chi ph d phng c th xc
nh theo mt t l phn trm nht nh ca chi ph thc hin cng vic hoc theo mt phng
php nh lng thng k no . Chi ph d phng c th xc nh cho c d n (d phng
qun l) v cho tng cng vic (d phng ngn sch) v phi c ghi chp r rng trong ti
liu v qun l chi ph d n. Vic c tnh chi ph thc hin d n c th tin hnh t trn
xung (top down)hoc t di ln (bottom up).
- c tnh t trn xung l c tnh tng chi ph thc hin ton b d n do cc chuyn
gia c kinh nghim v cc d n tng t v/hoc do cc nh qun l cp cao tin
hnh a ra c tnh. c tnh t trn xung thng c p dng trong nhng
trng hp, v d nh: d n chin lc quan trng (cc d n nghin cu pht
trin), d n c mc khng chc chn cao, d n nh ni b, d n c phm vi
thng xuyn thay i (v d cc d n v pht trin h thng thng tin).
- c tnh t di ln l xut pht t cc yu t chi tit ca d n nh t cc gi cng
vic trong WBS v cc hot ng trong s mng d n pht trin t phng php
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ng gng c tnh chi ph thc hin tng hot ng ri tng hp nn thnh c


tnh tng chi ph thc hin c d n. c tnh t di ln thng c p dng trong
cc trng hp nh do yu cu ca qun l phi c tnh chi tit, do cc d n k kt
hp ng cn phi c tnh chi tit, do khch hng yu cu phi gii trnh chi tit v
chi ph thc hin d n.
III.

Gii quyt tnh hung


3.1. trng hp ny, bn s lm g nu bn l nh qun l d n?

Da vo cc l thuyt nu trn, nu l mt nh qun l d n th trc ht ta phi xem xt


tnh hung ca d n ny l g? y d n l to ra my in mu vi gi r hn 200 nhng
qu trnh c tnh chi ph v thi gian vi vic s dng c tnh t di ln da trn
WBS/OBS u vt mc c tnh ca cc nh qun l hng u.

Hinh 2: iu kin chn c tnh t thi gian v chi ph t trn xung hoc t di ln
Xt cc iu kin trn, ta thy d n c nhng iu kin cn nm trong c hai phng php c
lng t trn xung v t di ln (quyt nh chin lc, chi ph v thi gian l quan trng,
chc chn khng cao).
V vy, gii php y l ta c th kt hp ng thi thc hin c tnh chi ph v thi gian
t trn xung v c tnh t di ln da trn WBS/OBS. Nhng vic c tnh gia thi gian
v chi ph khng nn i song song nhau. Ta s phn tch c tnh vn thi gian trc. d
n ny, cc nhn vin trong b phn R&D c phn lo lc v k thut sn xut my in t
cht lng cao nhng vi chi ph kh thp (A couple of R&D people were worried about the
technology required to produce the high-quality product for less than $200). Chnh v th, sau
khi gii quyt xong vn thi gian, ta s xem xt li tng nhim v nhm xc nh mi
nhim v s cn chi ph, ngun lc v k nng c th no hon tt. Kt qu ca vic phn
tch ny s th hin nhng i hi v ti chnh v ngun lc m t chc phi p ng cho d
n. Nu nhn vin trong cng ty khng c sn nhng k nng v cng ngh cn thit, cn t
chc o to, tuyn dng ngun lc bn ngoi hoc k hp ng vi mt bn chuyn gia khc
c lp . Tt c iu u phi c th hin trong chi ph d n. Cc bc thc hin cho
c tnh thi gian v chi ph nh sau:
- u tin phi da vo c tnh t trn xung a ra cc c tnh s b.T chc
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mt cuc hp mi n cc nh qun l cp cao v cp trung nh cc nh qun l


c tnh chi ph cho c d n sau phn chia d ton ny mt t l % cho cc thnh
phn cng vic nh hn hoc cc tiu d n cu thnh cng nh chi ph ca cc d n
nh da trn WBS/OBS
Cc c tnh ny sau s c chuyn n cho cc nh qun tr cp thp hn, nhng
ngi ny s tip tc tch nh c tnh ny thnh cc d ton ca cc nhim v c th
v gi cng vic theo t l phn trm no . Tin trnh ny cho n cp thp nht v
n i song song vi quy trnh lp cu trc phn chia cng vic i t cp cng vic cao
nht n cp cng vic thp nht.
Sau ta tin hnh c tnh t di ln : c lng di ln c tnh chi ph v lch
trnh mc gi cng vic ca cu trc chi tit cng vic v sau tng hp cc
con s ny tnh tng s cho d n. c lng di ln l k thut chnh xc nht.
Nu gia cc kin c s khc bit, s c cc cuc tho lun gia cc nh qun tr cp
cao v cp thp. Nu cn thit, nh qun tr d n v cc nh qun tr chc nng c th
tham gia vo cuc tho lun. Cui cng, ngn sch ca cc cng vic c tp hp li
xc nh tng chi ph trc tip ca d n. Cc chi ph gin tip nh chi ph qun tr
chung, d phng, v sau l li nhun s c cng vo hnh thnh ngn sch d
n cui cng.

Hinh 3: c tnh chi ph v thi gian t di ln


Bn cnh , nu kt hp c hai ch c tnh nhng vn cha th p ng yu cu ban u
t ra ca da n l gi chic my in thp hn 200 , ta c th tnh ton thm v thi gian b
vn hoc im ha vn xc nh xem sau bao lu sn phm c ra mt th cng ty s ly
li c vn v tng li nhun. T c th xem xt chc chn v mc kh thi ca d n.

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3.2.Cc nh qun l d n cp trn c ang i ng hng trong vic khai


trin cng vic c tnh?
Cc nh qun l d n cp trn ang i ng hng trong vic khai trin cng vic c tnh.
-

Lauren c chn lm nh qun l d n. C y c 15 nm kinh nghim trong thit k


v sn xut my in bao gm vic qun l thnh cng mt vi d n lin quan n my
in cho th trng thng mi.
Tham kho c s d liu t nhng kinh nghim v cc d n trong lnh vc my in
vo d n mi. S dng cc d liu gip c tnh cc d n trong tng lai v
xc nh chnh xc thi gian cn thit thc hin cng vic thc t. To v s
dng ti liu k hoch, chng hn nh thng s k thut v k hoch d n
C y nhanh chng m mt cuc hp vi c ng quan trng lp ra WBS, xc
nh gi cng vic v n v t chc chu trch nhim thc hin cc cng vic .
Vic lp ra WBS cho php c tnh ngun lc, thi gian v chi ph, cc yu cu
k thut khc mt cch h thng. Phn chia trch nhim thc hin c th v hp
l.
Gi cng vic l cp thp nht trong cu trc chia nh cng vic v l cp
chi tit m chi ph v thi gian thc hin cng vic c th c c tnh mt ng
tin cy v c th qun l c.
Lauren nhn mnh rng c mun c chi ph v thi gian c tnh t nhng ngi m
nhim cng vic hoc am hiu nht nu c th. Vic thu thp nhng kt qu c tnh
t nhiu ngun c khuyn khch..Chi ph c c tnh vt qu 1,250,000
so vi c tnh ca cc nh qun l cp cao. iu ny th hin vt qu 20%. Thi
gian c tnh t mng li pht trin d n ch vt qu 4 thng so vi c tnh ca
nh qun l cp trn.
Xu hng c tnh thng tng thi gian v chi ph c tnh nhm gim ri ro v
m bo cho d n, thng l tng thm trn 20 %. c tnh thi gian v ngun lc
thc hin cng vic c th bao gm c thi gian v ngun lc d phng p dng cho
mc ri ro trong qu trnh thc hin cng vic. Thi gian d phng c th xc
nh theo mt t l phn trm nht nh ca thi gian thc hin cng vic hoc theo
mt phng php nh lng thng k no . Nu ngn sch c xut hoc
lch dng nh khng thc hin cng vic, xut iu chnh ln hoc xung
mt hoc nhiu cc tiu ch xc nh phm vi bn d n: chi ph, tin , cht lng,
v cc tnh nng. C th rt ngn thi gian tung ra sn phm nhng phi tng chi
ph.
Tuy nhin, cc nh qun l cp trn nn
Thc hin c lng t trn xung ( top- down) cho vic c tnh thi gian
Cc d n v my in tng c thc hin trc y. Do thi gian thc hin
d n mi c tnh cht tng t vi d n c. Cu trc phn chia cng vic WBS
c thit lp chi tit vi cc gi cng vic. Do thi gian thc hin d n c
th c c tnh mt cch chnh xc theo mong mun ca c nh qun l cp cao.

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Thc hin vic c lng t di ln cho vic c tnh chi ph


Thc hin vic c lng t di ln (bottom-up estimates): c tnh nhng phn
cng vic ring l, t tnh ton ton b d n. Phng php c tnh ny c tnh
chnh xc cao hn. Tuy nhin n i hi nhiu thi gian hn. Chi ph cng nh
tnh chnh xc ph thuc quy m ca tng cng vic.
3.3.Nhng k thut c tnh no nn c s dng trong d n ny?
C rt nhiu k thut c tnh c th vn dng ty theo yu cu ca tng loi d n c t
ra. C th thy, d n v my in mu laser tuy tng c nh qun l d n Lauren qun l
trc y v thnh cng nhng im mi xut hin trong d n m c c giao l lm sao
gim chi ph my c gi thp hn 200 nhng vn m bo cht lng. V vy, ta khng
th p dng phng php tng t hoc da trn tiu chun hay phng php tham s.
Ngha l da trn tnh tng t ca d n c trc hay mi quan h thng k trong qu kh
gia cc i lng c tnh.
i vi d n ny, ta c th kt hp cc phng php c tnh cn li tng hp ra cc gi
tr c tnh c tin cy cao nht. c tnh v nh gic ca cc chuyn gia l iu c bn
cn thit bi h l nhng ngi c kinh nghim trong vic thc hin cc d n tng t trc
. iu ny s gip cho nh qun l hnh dung s b v mc chi ph cn thit ti thiu v
thi gian c th hon thnh d n. Sau , ta s dng phng php c tnh ba im
phng nhng ri ro c th xy ra lm nh hng tin d n. C th l nh qun l d n s
c c thi gian v chi ph cn thit nu thc hin d n trong iu kin thun li nht, diu
kin bt li nht v iu kin c kh nng xy ra nht. T , ly gi tr trung bnh ca cc
bin s trong cc iu kin c c gi tr tin cy. ng thi, phng php phn tch
d phng l phng php cn c p dng nht tnh ton chnh xc nhng chi ph v thi
gian cho tng gi cng vic c th theo mt t l phn trm nht nh. Phng php ny s
cho nh qun l c nhng con s c th hn i vi tng cng vic nh ni ring (bao gm c
chi ph d tr cho nhng ri ro c th pht sinh) v c d n ni chung.

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