CNBC Fed Survey, June 14, 2016

FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
These survey results represent the opinions of 41 of the nations top money managers,
investment strategists, and professional economists.
FED SURVEY
They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on June 9-11, 2016. Participants were not required to answer every question.
April 30,
Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.

This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
1. At its June meeting, the Federal Reserve will:

0%
10%
Raise interest rates
0%
Lower interest rates
0%
20%
0%
CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

Page 1 of 34
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
100%
Keep rates unchanged
Don't know/unsure
30%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
(For those answering rates would be kept unchanged at the

June meeting) What is the main reason the Fed will keep
FED SURVEY
rates unchanged
at its June meeting?
0%
20%
30%
40%
50%
April 30, 10%
Weak May jobs
report
50%
Uncertainty
surrounding
Brexit vote
13%
Global growth
concerns
15%
Markets
unprepared for
rate hike
5%
Other
Don't
know/unsure
18%
0%
Other:
Because they will be downgrading

their GDP projections at this meeting
They were never going to anyway
Uncertain about economy's strength
Weak April and May jobs

Page 2 of 34
Were prepping the market for a July

hike prior to the May employment
report
Yellen foot-dragging
60%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
After this months meeting, the Federal Reserve's next

move will most likely be:
FED SURVEY
April 30,
Jan 27
0%
Mar 15
20%
Apr 26
40%
Jun 14
60%
80%
88%
90%
Raise interest rates
94%
95%
10%
Lower interest rates
10%
4%
3%
0%
Move to negative interest rates
0%
0%
0%
3%
Launch new quantitative easing
0%
2%
3%

Page 3 of 34
100%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
When will the Federal Reserve make its next move?
FED SURVEY
AprilMarch
30, 15 Survey
Jan 27 Survey
For
those
who
said:
Raise
interest
rates
(88%)
Lower
interest
rates
(10%)
Move to
negative
interest
rates
(0%)
Launch
new
quant.
easing
(3%)
Average
month:
For
those
who
said:
May
2016
Raise
interest
rates
(90%)
August
2016
Lower
interest
rates
(10%)
--
Move to
negative
interest
rates
(0%)
April
2016
Launch
new
quant.
easing
(0%)
Average
month:
For
those
who
said:
June
2016
Raise
interest
rates
(94%)
October
2016
Lower
interest
rates
(4%)
--
Move to
negative
interest
rates
(0%)
--
Launch
new
quant.
easing
(2%)

Page 4 of 34
April 26 Survey
June 14 Survey
Average
month:
For
those
who
said:
Average
month:
August
2016
Raise
interest
rates
(95%)
Sept
2016
Sept
2016
Lower
interest
rates
(3%)
October
2016
--
Move to
negative
interest
rates
(0%)
--
Dec
2016
Launch
new
quant.
easing
(3%)
March
2017
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
2. How many times will the Federal Reserve hike rates this
year (2016)?
FED SURVEY
5.00
April 30,
4.50
4.00
3.50
2.8
3.00
2.50
2.1
1.9
2.00
1.6
1.5
Apr 26
Jun 14
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Dec 15 '15
Jan 26 '16
Mar 15
Survey Dates

Page 5 of 34
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
3. The current presidential campaign is:

Mar 15
FED SURVEY
Apr 26
Jun 14
April 30,
70%
61%
60%
56%
58%
50%
39%
40%
40%
37%
30%
20%
10%
5%
2%
3%
0%
Positive for the

economic outlook
Negative for the

economic outlook

Page 6 of 34
Having no effect on
the economic outlook
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
4. Which would be the best presidential election outcome

for the economy?
FED SURVEY
A Democrat wins
April 30,
Doesn't matter
A Republican wins
Don't know/unsure
45%
40%
40%
37%
Republican Wins
35%
35%
Doesn't matter
30%
26%
30%
25%
24%
20%
18%
15%
16%
28%
23%
Democrat wins
15%
Don't know/unsure
10%
9%
5%
0%
Mar 15

Page 7 of 34
Apr 26
Jun 14
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
5. Which candidate has best economic policies?

60%
FED SURVEY
April 30,
50%
45%
40%
30%
30%
25%
20%
10%
0%
Clinton

Page 8 of 34
Trump
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
Which candidate would be best for the stock market?
FED SURVEY
60%
April 30,
50%
40%
38%
38%
30%
25%
20%
10%
0%
Clinton

Page 9 of 34
Trump
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
6. Who is most likely to win this year's presidential

election?
FED SURVEY
90%
80%
April 30,
80%
Apr 26
Jun 14
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
13%
15%
10%
7%
5%
0%
Clinton

Page 10 of 34
Trump
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
In the wake of the November presidential election,

protectionist trade policies ...
FED
0% SURVEY
10%
April 30,
Will be
enacted
regardless of
who wins
20%
30%
40%
53%
Will be
enacted only
if Donald
Trump wins
Don't
know/unsure
33%
0%
3%

Page 11 of 34
60%
13%
Won't be
enacted
regardless of
who wins
Will be
enacted only
if Hillary
Clinton wins
50%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
7. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will be on

?
FED SURVEY
December 31, 2016
December 31, 2017
April 30,
2,350
2311
2,300
2296
2,250
2247
2293
2254
2259
2234
2223
2244
2200
2,200
2166
2,150
2158
2159
2114
2088
2140
2,100
2149
2107
2035
2,050
2,000
2000
1,950
1,900
1,850
1,800
Dec
16
Jan
27
'15
Mar April Jun

17
28
16

Page 12 of 34
Jul
28
Sept
16
Oct
27
Survey Dates
Dec
15
Jan
15
'16
Jan
26
Mar
15
Apr
26
Jun
14
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
8. What do you expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury

note will be on ?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
December 31, 2016
December 31, 2017
4.0%
3.52%
3.5%
3.14%
3.0%
3.24%
3.17%
3.09%
3.04%
2.88%
2.89%
2.88%
2.83%
2.67% 2.67%
2.58%
2.54%
2.5%
2.51%
2.34%
2.11% 2.10%
2.0%
Dec
16
Jan
27
'15
Mar
17
April Jul 16Jul 28 Sept

28
16
Oct
27
Survey Dates

Page 13 of 34
Dec
15
Jan
26
'16
Mar
15
Apr
26
Jun
14
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
9. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will be on

?
FED SURVEY Dec 31, 2017
Dec 31, 2016
Dec 31, 2018
April 30,
2.5%
2.17%
2.13%
1.99%
2.0%
2.04%
2.07%
1.93%
1.84%
1.75%
1.61% 1.62%
1.56%
1.5%
1.61%
1.60%
1.49%
1.41%
1.46%
1.43%
1.17%
1.0%
1.12%
0.88%
0.91% 0.90%
0.85%
0.78%
0.84%
0.74%
0.5%
0.0%

Page 14 of 34
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
10.
At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
SURVEY
terminalFED
rate?
April 30,
4.0%
3.5%
3.30%
3.20%
3.16%
3.17%
3.11%
3.04%
3.06%
2.98%
3.0%
2.73%
2.85% 2.79%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65%
2.58%
2.5%
2.0%
Survey Dates

Page 15 of 34
2.64%
2.56%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
11.
When do you believe fed funds will reach its
terminal rate?
FED SURVEY
Survey
Date
April
30,
Forecast
August 20 survey
Q4 2017
September 16 survey
Q3 2017
October 28 survey
Q4 2017
December 16 survey
Q1 2018
Jan. 27, 2015 survey
Q1 2018
March 17 survey
Q4 2017
April 28 survey
Q1 2018
June 16 survey
Q1 2018
July 28 survey
Q2 2018
August 25 survey
Q3 2018
September 16 survey
Q1 2018
October 27 survey
Q3 2018
December 15 survey
Q1 2018
Jan. 26, 2016 survey
Q2 2018
Mar 15 survey
Q3 2018
Apr 26 survey
Q4 2018
Jun 14 survey
Q4 2018

Page 16 of 34
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
12.
What is your forecast for the year-over-year
percentage change in real U.S. GDP for ?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
2016
2017
3.0%
+2.88%
+2.84%
+2.81%
+2.78%
2.8%
+2.80%
+2.70%
+2.64%
+2.60%
2.6%
+2.43%
2.4%
+2.45% +2.41%
+2.25%
+2.31%
2.2%
+2.17%
+2.21%
+2.14%
+2.05%
2.0%
+1.95%
1.8%
1.6%
Dec 16
Jan 27,
'15
Mar 17
April 28
Jun 16
Jul 28
Sept 16
Oct 27
Dec 15
Jan 26
'16
Mar 15
Apr 26
Jun 14
2016 +2.88% +2.80% +2.84% +2.81% +2.78% +2.70% +2.64% +2.60% +2.45% +2.17% +2.14% +1.95% +2.05%
2017

Page 17 of 34
+2.43% +2.31% +2.41% +2.21% +2.25%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
13.
What is your forecast for the year-over-year
percentage change in the headline U.S. CPI for ?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
2016
2017
2.4%
2.17%
2.24%
2.20%
2.17%
2.2% 2.17%
2.07%2.08%
2.12%
2.13%
2.07%
2.0%
1.89%
1.96%
1.88%
1.75%
1.8%
1.75%
1.72%
1.66%
1.6%
1.50%
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
Dec
16
Jan
27,
'15
Mar
17
April
28
Jun Jul 28 Sept

16
16
Oct
27
Survey Dates

Page 18 of 34
Dec
15
Jan
26
'16
Mar
15
Apr
26
Jun
14
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
14.
When do you expect the Fed to allow its balance
sheet to decline?
FED
0% SURVEY
10%
20%
April 30,
Jun '16
0%
Jul '16
0%
Aug '16
0%
Sep '16
0%
Nov '16
0%
Dec '16
8%
3%
5%
63%
5%

Page 19 of 34
70%
0%
After May '17

Never
60%
10%
Mar '17
May '17
50%
5%
Jan '17
Apr '17
40%
3%
Oct '16
Feb '17
30%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
15.
What is the single biggest threat facing the U.S.
economic recovery?
20%
15%
8%
4%
8%
5%
7%
10%
3%
12%
6%
31%
40%
0%
6%
3%
3%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5%
0%
0%
31%
28%
30%
27%
29%
32%
21%
23%
26%
29%
26%
18%
14%
13%
14%
11%
17%
21%
16%
8%
10%
10%
21%
22%
28%
20%
20%
22%
22%
24%
29%
30%
26%
21%
12%
29%
15%
14%
9%
0%
8%
3%
9%
2%
5%
5%
5%
3%
2%
5%
0%
3%
0%
2%
3%
2%
2%
3%
3%
6%
6%
3%
3%
0%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
0%
2%
3%
2%
3%
2%
0%
3%
0%
0%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
6%
0%
6%
0%
0%
0%
4%
8%
0%
3%
0%
2%
0%
2%
0%
2%
4%
3%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
10%
18%
8%
15%
12%
5%
8%
12%
6%
10%
3%
6%
6%
6%
14%
12%
0%
8%
8%
0%
5%
0%
25%
18%
12%
11%
8%
14%
16%
8%
11%
25%
6%
8%
13%
10%
5%
5%
7%
0%
41%
28%
28%
22%
29%
45%
41%
44%
44%
33%
36%
28%
6%
17%
8%
6%
9%
8%
10%
5%
8%
5%
9%
8%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3%
7%
5%
13%
11%
13%
14%
7%
13%
2%
21%
18%
13%
12%
11%
8%
3%
16%
14%
19%
11%
9%
14%
5%
15%
23%
21%
11%
10%
Other responses:
Fear itself
Inadequate monetary stimulus as
reflected in weak nominal GDP
growth

Page 20 of 34
Squeezed profit margins

Slow global growth due to slower
productivity/lab force growth
Don't know/
unsure
Other
Protectionist trade
policies
Outcome of US
presidential election
Terrorist attacks in the

U.S.
Slow wage growth
Global econ weakness
Geopolitical risks
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Slow job growth
Tax/
regulatory policies
Survey
Date
Apr 30
Jun 18
Jul 30
Sep 17
Oct 29
Dec 17
Jan 28 '14
Mar 18
Apr 28
Jul 29
Sep 16
Oct 28
Dec 16
Jan 27 '15
Mar 17
April 28
Jun 16
Jul 28
Sept 16
Oct 27
Dec 15
Jan 26 '16
Mar 15
Apr 26
Jun 14
European recession/
financial crisis
April 30,
Rise in interest rates
FED SURVEY
0%
0%
4%
2%
0%
2%
0%
0%
0%
3%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
2%
0%
0%
3%
0%
2%
0%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
16.
In the next 12 months, what percent probability do
you place on the U.S. entering recession? (0%=No
FED
SURVEY
chance of
recession,
100%=Certainty of recession)
April 30,
40%
36.1%
35%
34.0%
30%
28.8%
28.5%
26.0%
25%
25.9%
24.4%
23.5%
25.5%
22.9%
24.1%
22.1%
20%
20.6%
20.3%
20.4%
18.2%
19.1%
17.6%
21.1%
18.4%
18.6%
17.3%
16.9%
16.2%
16.4%
15.1%
16.9%
16.2%
15.3%
15.2%
15.0%
14.6%
15%
17.4%
15.1%
14.7%
13.6%
13.0%
Aug 11, '11

Sep 19
Oct 31
Jan 23, '12
Mar 16
Apr 24
Jul 31
Sep 12
Dec 11
Jan 29, '13
Mar 19
Apr 30
Jun 18
Jul 30
Sep 6
Oct 29
Dec 17
Jan 28 '14
Mar 18
Apr 28
Jul 29
Sep 16
Oct 28
Dec 16
Jan 27 '15
Mar 17
April 28
Jun 16
Jul 28
Sept 16
Oct 27
Dec 15
Jan 15 '16
Jan 26
Mar 15
Apr 26
Jun 14
10%
Survey Dates

Page 21 of 34
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
17.
Which of the following is the best explanation of the
weak May jobs report?
FED SURVEY
60%
April 30,
55%
50%
40%
35%
30%
20%
10%
10%
0%
Statistical blip not

Beginning of a trend
reflective of the trend of lower job growth

Page 22 of 34
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
18.
Which of the following factors do you believe is
depressing job growth now? (Select all that apply)
FED SURVEY
April 30,
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Employers uncertain about future

growth
70%
58%
Economy at full employment
40%
Higher minimum wages
28%
Other
28%
Productivity beginning to rise
15%
Election uncertainty
Don't know/unsure
60%
13%
0%
Other:
Affordable Care Act

Higher wages are making employers
more selective
Lagged effects of Fed's 2014-15
threat to raise interest rates
Skills mismatch
We have just been through a minirecession
Current/anticipated aggregate
demand does not support adding
meaningful numbers of new

Page 23 of 34
employees and hiking wages. Labor

market is not tight.
Lack of warm qualified bodies
Lower commodity prices
Rise of automation destroying many
jobs
Skills mismatch as well as normal
slowdown after rapid growth past 6
years
Weak foreign growth
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
19.
Relative to an economy operating at full capacity,
what best describes your view of the amount of resource
SURVEY
slack in FED
the U.S.
right now for labor?
80%
April 30,
70%
Modestly more slack
60%
50%
40%
Considerably more slack
30%
Modestly less slack
20%
Considerably less slack
10%
0%
No difference
Jul 29
Jan 27
Aug 20 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16
14
'15
Mar
Jun 14
Apr 28 Jun 16 Jul 28
17
'16
Considerably more slack now 48%
34%
20%
18%
16%
16%
13%
6%
5%
12%
10%
Modestly more slack now
36%
40%
60%
69%
55%
50%
63%
64%
54%
47%
43%
No difference
4%
6%
3%
0%
0%
6%
11%
0%
15%
9%
15%
Modestly less slack now
8%
11%
6%
5%
24%
19%
11%
22%
15%
24%
23%
Considerably less slack now
4%
9%
9%
8%
5%
9%
3%
8%
10%
9%
10%

Page 24 of 34
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
Relative to an economy operating at full capacity, what best

describes your view of the amount of resource slack in the
FED
U.S. right now
forSURVEY
production capacity?
70%
April 30,
Modestly more slack
60%
50%
40%
30%
Considerably more slack
Modestly less slack
20%
No difference
10%
Considerably less slack
0%
Jul 29
Jan 27
Aug 20 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16
'14
'15
Mar
Jun 14
Apr 28 Jun 16 Jul 28
17
'16
Considerably more slack now 12%
9%
8%
8%
8%
0%
14%
8%
10%
21%
20%
Modestly more slack now
56%
60%
64%
64%
55%
59%
57%
57%
62%
38%
55%
No difference
8%
14%
8%
15%
13%
19%
14%
5%
8%
15%
10%
Modestly less slack now
16%
9%
14%
8%
24%
13%
11%
19%
13%
21%
13%
Considerably less slack now
4%
9%
3%
5%
0%
9%
5%
11%
8%
6%
3%

Page 25 of 34
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
20.
When it comes to the effect on policy for each of the
following factors, do you believe the Federal Reserve
SURVEY
pays tooFED
much
attention, pays the right amount of
April
attention,
or 30,
doesn't pay enough attention?
Pays too much attention
100%
Pays the right amount of attention
5%
10%
Doesn't pay enough attention
8%
90%
23%
80%
45%
70%
50%
60%
50%
40%
70%
30%
50%
40%
20%
10%
0%
Latest high-frequency
data, such as the most
recent jobs or
inflation report
Intl economic and

financial
developments

Page 26 of 34
Market reactions to
monetary policy
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
21.
When it comes to comparing the effect on policy
between now and 10 years ago for each of the following
SURVEY
factors, FED
do you
believe the Federal Reserve pays more
April
30,
attention
now,
the same amount of attention, or less
attention now?
Pays more attention now
100%
Pays the same amount of attention now
Pass less attention now
3%
5%
90%
25%
20%
75%
78%
Intl economic and

financial
developments
Market reactions to
monetary policy
80%
43%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
53%
20%
10%
0%
Latest high-frequency
data, such as the most
recent jobs or
inflation report

Page 27 of 34
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
22.
What is your primary area of interest?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
Other
20%
Currencies
0%
Fixed
Income
10%
Economics
51%
Equities
20%
Comments:
Marshall Acuff, Silvercrest Asset Management: The Fed should
be economic data driven and let the markets respond accordingly.
Furthermore there continues to be too many Fed governors voicing
anticipatory opinions about future Fed actions before all the
economic data is reported in front of a pending Fed meeting.
Continuing such conduct could eventually jeopardize the credibility of
the Fed.
Jim Bianco, Bianco Research: Biggest Issue of the year is BRexit.
While I do not expect "leave" (the EU) to happen, if leave does
prevail, it is a game changer. It would mark the beginning of the
end of the EU/Euro and a dangerous rise in protectionist policies.

Page 28 of 34
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
Peter Boockvar, The Lindsey Group: The Fed has so bungled

their exit from this extraordinary experiment that they better hope
SURVEYprices is just a blip because if it's for
the recent riseFED
in commodity
April
30,
real at the same
time
services inflation stays high, they are in deep
s**t.
Robert Brusca, Fact and Opinion Economics: The Feds problem
is it tracks the economy using the WRONG paradigm. It is as though
the US economy has been TRANSFORMED into a SMALL OPEN
economy and is a price taker in world markets rather than a large
somewhat Open economy as in the past. This means that the US
does not set global wages and prices, let alone its own. They are set
in foreign markets. That makes US macro statistics less important to
actual US economic outcomes and the value of the dollar much
MORE important. The Fed's usage or framing of policy as focused on
labor and wages in a highly Keynesian framework is quaint. The Fed
needs to THINK MORE about why certain policies do not work and
why the Phillips curve seems to have evaporated instead of making
policy like everything is still the same. It isn't. International markets
and events are much more important than the Fed seems to
recognize or to admit.
John Donaldson, Haverford Trust Co.: When you look at the
detail in the jobs report, the weakness is concentrated in oil & gas,
mining, and the support activities for those industries. That support
category has been particularly weak in spring months where the
historical data has shown seasonal strength.
Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research: The upcoming British
referendum was a strong enough reason to delay a hike in June. The
latest payroll figures lower the sense of urgency to hike in July. That
said, the rationale for gradual rate hikes remains strong and our
sense is the market has a tough time between the notions of slow
hikes versus no hikes. Wage growth has picked up and the
stabilization in the USD has helped the outlook for core inflation.
Page 29 of 34
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
Mike Englund, Action Economics: The May payroll undershoot

partly reflected a Verizon and weather hit that will be reversed in
FED SURVEY
June, hence setting
up the fed for a July rate hike. Yet, it's
April
unfortunate that
the30,
Fed has talked itself into a spot where it needs
to fit policy changes around data wiggles.
Robert Fry, Robert Fry Economics: The Fed should stop putting
so much weight on a single measure, the increase in nonfarm
payrolls. If you look at a broader sample of data (April personal
consumption expenditures and new home sales, house prices,
various measures of labor costs, unemployment claims), it's hard to
justify not raising the federal funds rate.
Kevin Giddis, Raymond James Financial: The Fed remains in a
difficult position. U.S. economic growth and inflation is moderating
enough to consider raising rates, but not enough to garner enough
support within its ranks or convince the market that doing so is
prudent. Unfortunately, waiting is taking a toll on their creditability.
Art Hogan, Wunderlich Securities: It is very telling that the
market has been able to both accept the fact that the Fed will raise
rates this year and that economic data is mixed at best. We are in a
far better place today than we were this time last year.
John Kattar, Ardent Asset Advisors: There is absolutely no
reason for the Fed to do anything prior to the election. Economic
data is tepid, inflation is subdued, and geopolitical risks such as
Brexit loom.
Jack Kleinhenz, NRF Chief Economist: The pace of a Fed policy
change and inflation are uncertain. Recent economic data has in
general been positive but solid economic data is required for a Fed
hike in July. The weak May employment report and Brexit are issues
affecting the near-term decision and later this year the presidential
election will influence a late 2016 decision.
Page 30 of 34
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
Subodh Kumar, Subodh Kumar & Associates: For endeavors,

checks and balances work best to curb excess, including in capital
markets in theFED
past SURVEY
in their relationship with central banks. Being
April
30,
overly enmeshed
into
following central banks can be seen again in
the capital market reactions to recent musing by the Federal Reserve
Chairman that interest rate increases need to take into account the
economy. Currently, with apparently close to $10 trillion dollars of
subzero sovereign debt having been issued worldwide and corporate
share buybacks in the United States at least running at record levels
for several quarters, of concern to investors should be that such
coopting builds in risks that appear not clearly understood. Assuming
steady state low risk seems to be a less preferable option for
portfolios to diversifying across asset classes including cash and
precious metals as well as focusing on quality.
Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott: While a June rate hike
wasn't a given, the May jobs report essentially took the option off
the table. While the number was a surprise, the reaction shouldn't
be. The dollar has stopped rising and the stress fractures in China's
currency peg have dissipated, which, ironically, gives FOMC
policymakers a little more room to hike exactly when the domestic
economic data is warning that they perhaps shouldn't.
Donald Luskin, Trend Macrolytics: The Fed is so out of control it
is destroying business confidence. They say they are "data
dependent" but they come off like data junkies who flip-flop every
time some news release comes out. It's embarrassing.
Thom Melcher, PNC Asset Management Group: US economic
conditions are stable and modestly improving. Valuations are fair
given the pace of growth. The Fed's next move will be to tighten,
but they are not in a rush to do so.

Page 31 of 34
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
Rob Morgan, Sethi Financial Group: The weak May jobs report
takes a Fed hike off the table for the near term, and given the Fed's
propensity to FED
leave SURVEY
rates unchanged near a presidential election, we
April
30,
won't see a hike
until
December at the earliest.
Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors: The Fed needs to stop
paying so close attention to current data and might even stop
indicating that they are data driven, as it too often refers to current
data.
James Paulsen, Wells Capital Management: Currently, yield
structures that are nearing zero or below about the world are
becoming the biggest fear generator for private economic players
and investors. Perhaps more than ever, the Fed could have more
positive influence on private sector players' confidence by showing
some real world economic leadership and following through with a
rate increase in July.
Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University: "Data
dependent" policy can only work if current data is a good predictor of
the future. Unfortunately, it is not. The economy's performance in
six months may look nothing like today's data, which means that
monetary policy, which acts with a lag, may be significantly off
course.
John Roberts, Hilliard Lyons: Continued high levels of negative
campaigning between the two major party candidates are unlikely to
be positive for the markets. Hopefully we will get some more
positive rhetoric and specific policy proposals from the minor party
candidates!
Merrill Ross, Wunderlich: We still have to consider that sluggish
growth and the potential for deflation could be symptomatic of
secular and demographic changes that are very difficult to overcome,
and far beyond the influence of monetary policy.
Page 32 of 34
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
Chris Rupkey, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi: Fed reluctance to lift

rates back to normal is making companies, individuals and investors
FED SURVEY
and traders believe
falsely that they cannot raise interest rates or it
April
30,
will "break" the
economy.
The Fed's zero rate policy has cost savers
billions in lost real wealth. Bring back Greenspan, not sure why we
threw his measured pace rates normalization under the bus. Yellen
voted for his rate hikes, now she won't.
John Ryding, RDQ Economics: The Fed has consistently
overreacted to the latest payroll print (e.g. September 2013 and
September 2015). In addition, the Fed has paid too much attention
to short-term market volatility. Communication is unclear (data
dependent but which data?) The Fed needs to rethink and clarify the
basis for policy decisions. Right now policy moves are very much in
the discretionary mode of operation.
Allen Sinai, Decision Economics: The U.S. economy is in a new
phase of the business cycle: tight labor markets and the beginning of
wage-price pickup.
Hank Smith, Haverford Investments: The next president will
have an easy opportunity to accelerate GDP growth through
corporate tax reform (where there is bipartisan support) and
regulatory reform. Lets hope they see the light!
Diane Swonk, Diane Swonk & Associates: The push to inhibit
trade, close boarders, and up regulation across a board swath of
industries are all a threat to growth in 2017. The only policy offset is
the realization by both sides of the aisle that corporate tax reform
could bring money home and increase our competitive advantage.
The Fed is pretty much out of ways to stimulate short of a helicopter
drop, which could be its last move as an independent central bank if
it were to occur.

Page 33 of 34
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
Peter Tanous, Lynx Investment Advisory: Biggest concern is the

rising number of jobs disappearing due to automation. The case for a
FED SURVEY
guaranteed income
is getting more interesting.
April 30,
Mark Vitner, Wells Fargo: Financial market volatility will increase
ahead of ANY meeting that the markets sense that the Fed is set to
raise interest rates. The Fed needs to reset their expectations in
regards to this.
Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute: Investors are
already looking ahead to improved economic and earnings growth in
the second half of this year and in 2017. That is why we are only a
whisper away from the all-time record high in the S&P 500. When
the current consolidation phase ends for the SPX we look for the
index to move higher and set new record highs in the second half of
the year. It might not break through the May '15 intraday record
high the first 2 or 3 times it tries but we are convinced it will. We
want our clients to stay invested and use downside volatility as a
buying opportunity. Good, not great, equity returns over the next
12-18 months.
Clare Zempel, Zempel Strategic: The failure of central banks
worldwide to spur faster nominal growth, which reflects an
unimaginative and misdirected focus on low interest rates, has
tragically suppressed growth in incomes and fomented a xenophobic
political shift.

Page 34 of 34

CNBC Fed Survey, June 14, 2016

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FED SURVEY

June 14, 2016

Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.

1. At its June meeting, the Federal Reserve will:

Raise interest rates

Lower interest rates

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

Keep rates unchanged

(For those answering rates would be kept unchanged at the

Because they will be downgrading

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

Were prepping the market for a July

After this months meeting, the Federal Reserve's next

Raise interest rates

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

When will the Federal Reserve make its next move?

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

3. The current presidential campaign is:

Positive for the

Negative for the

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

4. Which would be the best presidential election outcome

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

5. Which candidate has best economic policies?

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

Which candidate would be best for the stock market?

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

6. Who is most likely to win this year's presidential

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

In the wake of the November presidential election,

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

7. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will be on

December 31, 2017

Mar April Jun

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

8. What do you expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury

December 31, 2016

December 31, 2017

April Jul 16Jul 28 Sept

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

9. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will be on

FED SURVEY Dec 31, 2017

Dec 31, 2016

Dec 31, 2018

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

Jan. 27, 2015 survey

Jan. 26, 2016 survey

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

+2.43% +2.31% +2.41% +2.21% +2.25%

Jun Jul 28 Sept

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

After May '17

CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016

Squeezed profit margins

Terrorist attacks in the

Slow wage growth

Global econ weakness

Slow job growth

Rise in interest rates

Aug 11, '11