A DECADE MORE

When revengeful George W Bush waged the holy war against Islamic
militants, he declared that it could last for about twenty years. Recently Obama
said that Af-Pak region could remain unstable for another decade. It raises an
obvious question that what the US wants to achieve in this region in next ten years.
To find an answer to this question it may be recalled that Pervez Musharraf,
the brave commando ruling Pakistan at the time of 9/11 attacks, had jumped to the
US side when he received a long distance call from Washington telling him either
you are with us or against us. He instantly jumped to the American side. While
commenting on his impulsive decision it was said that he decided to escape the
wrath of superpower - he avoided sudden death but inadvertently opted to bleed to
death.
The global bully accepted the choice of Musharraf but did not change its plan
to destroy the Islamic World through holy war of George W Bush. However, in
view of the unconditional surrender of Musharraf the United States revised the
sequence in which Muslims were to be sent back to Stone Age.
The process of bleeding Pakistan began immediately after invasion of
Afghanistan. The first incision was performed by installing a government in Kabul
that was hostile towards Pakistan. Immediately after that Washington embraced
New Delhi as its strategic partner and assigned India a wider role in Afghanistan.
A series of injuries were inflicted through indiscriminate drone attacks on
Pakistani soil knowing full well that such attacks would antagonize the tribal
people who would seek revenge true to their traditions. It was also very clear that it
wont be easy for angry tribesmen to cause much harm to the US and perforce they
would quench their thirst for revenge by turning towards Pakistan; the ally of the
US.
Pakistani armed forces were left with no choice other than acting against
hostile but aggrieved tribesmen forcing them to flee. Pakistan asked the US to seal
the border to prevent the fleeing militants from crossing over to Afghanistan. Not
only the request went unheard but the TTP militants were welcomed and also
provided safe heavens with India assigned the overall charge.
India grabbed the opportunity with both hands and established elaborate
network for recruitment, training, tasking and funding the terrorists for carrying out
attacks inside Pakistan. Today India has active operatives and sleeping cells of
terrorists almost all over Pakistan. The US encouraged India by turning the face
other way.

In addition to Indian and Afghan patronization of TTP militants, Baloch

insurgents were provided training and funding through Afghanistan while Baloch
rebel leaders were sheltered in Europe as well. MI6 used London-based MQM
leadership to create chaos in Karachi.
Historically Pakistan always had cordial relations with Iran but Islamabad was
forced to stay away from it on the pretext of sanctions. India made inroads into
Iran and from there launched men like Kalbushan Yadav. The announcement of
China Pakistan Economic Corridor brought India closer to Iran, of course with the
consent of United States; the strategic partner of India.
Last year Saudi Arabia was enticed to adventurism in Yemen. When Riyadh
felt the need for ground forces it posed a dilemma for Pakistan by asking it to send
troops. Islamabad took right decision to remain neutral, but that annoyed the Saudi
rulers as well as other Sunni Arab Sheikhs of the region. In reaction they invited
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to send a message telling Pakistanis that
only they would be the losers. Today the Arab Sheikhs love Pakistan only that
much as they love hubara bustard hunt and relish the feast.
The above is about military encirclement and diplomatic isolation of Pakistan.
The country that plans to own the 21st Century could not ignore that external
maneouvres alone could not be enough to bring an atomic power to total
submission. Weakening Pakistan internally was far more necessary to achieve the
intended goals for which a pliant government in Islamabad had to be installed.
To this end, the brave commando was convinced to agree to strike a deal with
democratic forces loitering abroad. He once again became a victim of the lust for
continuation of his rule. The Brits played key role in negotiating a deal that
materialized in the form of National Reconciliation Ordinance. Pervez Musharraf
paved the way for the corrupt to stage a comeback in corridors of power in
Islamabad.
This was his final blunder that cost Pakistan dearly and he too was forced to
resign disgracefully. The corrupt politicians who should have been punished by
Musharraf have ruled Pakistan for the last eight years and they have proved to be
obedient servants of the West; more about politicians a little later.
All along the above moves, armed forces of Pakistan were kept under
perpetual pressure. Pakistan was constantly blamed for not doing enough in war on
terror despite the fact that its security forces have suffered more losses in this war
than any other country. The do more raga has been aimed at causing fatigue and
wear and tear of men and material.

The exterior and interior maneouvres enumerated above would make it easier
to find answer to the question raised in the beginning. By keeping the Af-Pak
region unstable for another ten years the US wants to achieve two aims, i.e. denude
Pakistan of nuclear capability and check development of China Pakistan Economic
Corridor. That leads to another question; How the US wants to achieve these goals?
Most analysts opine that the West wants to trap Pakistan by lavish dishing out
of foreign loans. A stage would come in not too distant future that debt servicing
would be impossible for Pakistan which is already costing one-third of its annual
budget. At that stage Pakistan would be offered help on the condition that it
surrenders its nuclear assets.
This strategy works only for achievement of one goal but not for the second.
In fact economic pressure could lead to strengthening of Pakistans resolve to
develop CPEC with urgency. Herein emerges the deadliest option of further cutting
Pakistan to size that suits the US and will be relished by its strategic partner India.
Coming back to the present political leadership, by design or by default it can
facilitate the US and India in fulfilling their sinister designs. A cursory look at
leader of each political party will help understanding this point. The leader of the
party ruling the federation and the largest province never conceals his love for
India and his grudges against Pakistan Army.
Nawaz Sharif had dashed to New Delhi to attend oath-taking ceremony of
Narendra Modi, despite an advice to the contrary. He has remained tight-lipped on
the arrest of Kulbushan and dozens of members of his network. Nawaz has yet to
say a word condemning US drone attack in Balochistan.
The PPP and the PML-N are birds of same feather in this regard. Earlier,
Zardari had invited Karzai on his investure ceremony. Eighteenth Amendment in
the garb of provincial autonomy was primarily meant to weaken the federation.
The MQM and the PPP (Sindh) frequently hurl indirect threats of disintegration of
Pakistan.
In KPK the ANPs love for New Delhi and hatred for establishment is no
secret JUI-F has history of opposing the two-nation theory. Baloch leaders have
nationalistic ambitions and in Pashtoon region of that province there is only one
prominent politician Mehmood Khan Achakzai, the son of yet another Gandhi.
All these political leaders wont regret disintegration of Pakistan, in fact they
would be pleased to have a state of their own to rule. And so will be the US and
its strategic partner as the nuclear weapons of truncated Pakistan would be
declared unsafe. Late General Hamid Gul had often said that Pakistan is the
ultimate target of the Crusaders. That moment seemed to have approached as can

be inferred from sabotage of Afghan peace process, murder of Mullah Mansour,

blaming Pakistan for cross-border terrorism and yet opposing Pakistans efforts for
border management.
All that has been enumerated above did not happen randomly but has been
made to happen in accordance with a well thought out plan. The plan envisaged
causing attrition on Pakistan by practically treating it as an adversary while
keeping it in the folds of alliance and demanding more and more from it. Then
discard the long time obedient servant, portray it as an adversary at the right
moment and go for the kill.
Those who have their vision still intact can see that the clouds on Pakistani
horizons are looming larger than ever before. The cloud burst can happen any time.
Elsewhere in Islamic World the perpetration of death and destruction has been
effectively out-sourced and slaughter machines placed on auto-mode have been
working overtime and are likely to continue for years to come.
6th June, 2016
Brigadier (Retired) Muhammad Riaz Amin
M.Sc Defense Strategic Studies
(Gold Medal)