Anda di halaman 1dari 48

Republic of Srpska

University of Eastern Sarajevo


Faculty of Business Economics
Bijeljina


:

2010. 2011.
:

...


070/2010

, 2012.

..........................................................................................................................................................3

... ............................4
... ..........................5
1. ...
....................................................................................................7

1.1.
... ...............7
1.1.1. .............................................................................................9
1.1.1.1. ............................................10
1.1.1.2. .................................................11
1.1.1.3. ..........................................................13
1.1.2. ...............................................................................................................14
1.1.2.1. () .........................................................15
1.1.2.2. () ................................16
1.1.2.3. ..............................................17
1.1.2.4. .....................................18
1.1.3. ..............................................................................................................19
1.1.4. ................................................................................................................20
1.1.5. ..............................................................................................21
1.2.
... .................22
1.2.1. ...................................................................................................22
1.2.2. ..................................................................................24
1.2.3. .................................................................................................25
1.3.
... ....................27
1.3.1. ............................................28
1.3.1.1. ..........................................................................29
1.3.1.2. .........................................................................30
1.3.2. ..................................................................................31
1.3.3. .....................................................................................33
1.3.4. ..............................................................34
1.3.5. .............................................................................................................36
1.4.

... ..........40
2.
... - Z-SCORE ZETA .......................................42
3. ... ......44
............................................................................................................................................47
..........................................................................................................................................48

...


... 2009. 2011. ,
Z-score Zeta .
e
,
,
,
.
, .
,
.
...
1993. .
1997. 2000.,2006. 2012..
, 2006.
. ...
.
.
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. : ,

.
: , ,
, .

Z-score ZETA
.
... .

...

...
-

.
I
II , ,

III
.
I ,

II ,

1.
2.
3.
4.
.
.
.
.

.
I
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
.
.
I
II
1.
.

2009

2010

2011

001
002

1.915.160
-

2.443.000
-

2.507.126
-

008

1.915.160

2.443.000

2.507.126

021
031

1.596.434

1.390.638

1.448.632

032

437.989

495.963

366.934

039

1.158.445

894.675

1.081.698

040
046
055
059
061
062
063
064

1.005.118
150.807
2.520
3.511.594
3.511.594

828.099
59.329
7.247
3.833.638
3.833.638

998.090
65.851
16.613
3.955.758
3.955.758

101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
114
117
122
125
132
133
142
159
161

3.313.332
302.500
302.500
30.200
2.980.632
198.262
198.262
2.154
3.511.594

3.481.986
302.500
302.500
30.200
3.149.286
351.652
250.000
101.652
436
3.833.638

3.700.267
302.500
302.500
30.200
3.367.567
255.491
255.491
14.635
3.955.758

...
.
.

162
163

3.511.594


3.833.638

3.955.758

...
-

2009

2010

2011

201
202
206

3.839.997
2.238.546
1.461.794

2.351.184
22.347
2.123.590

3.256.234
186.304
3.014.396

210

211
212
215
216
217
218

52.641
87.016
3.725.397
1.639.869
1.765.536

8.020
213.267
2.037.678
73.726
1.723.895

35.500
91.034
3.011.562
185.622
2.502.330

219

158.690

85.147

114.251

222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230

30.774
79.394
79.394
47.608
3.369
157
114.600
-

19.984
86.839
86.839
40.124
14.878
85
313.506
-

18.170
133.148
133.148
46.895
11.032
114
244.672
-

231
238
240
244
245

727
11.805
10.762
103.522
-

521
29.212
13.057
284.815
-

354
9.237
9.237
235.789
-

246
257

28.325
81.570

38.847
90.174

76.666
28.194

268

48.472

269

53.245

51.327

.
I
1.
2.
3.

4.
5.
6.
II
1.
2.
3. ,

4.
5.
5.1.
5.2.
6.
7.
8.
.
.
.
I
II
1.
.
.
.
I
II
.

.

...

I

I
II
.
I
II
.
.
1.
2.
.

I
II
.
.

270
280

293
294
295

103.522
53.245
9.677

233.488
24.833

284.261
29.981

298
299

40.600
-

208.655
-

254.280
-

317
318
325
326

40.600

208.655

254.280

3.869.049
3.818.722

2.390.552
2.157.064

3.333.254
3.048.993

...

1.
...
1.1.

...


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2
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2003., . 374.

...


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1.
2.
3.
4.
I (1 4)
5.
II (5)

040
046
055
059

2009
1.005.118
150.807
2.520
1.158.445

2010
828.099
59.329
7.247
894.675


2011
998.090
65.851
16.613
1.081.698

142

198.262
198.262

101.652
101.652

255.491
255.491

5,843

8,801

4,234

1,000

1,000

1,000

. (I/II)
- . .
( ...)
7.
8.
9. ,

III (7
9)

109
001

1.915.160

2.443.000

2.507.126

032

437.989

495.963

366.934

2.353.149

2.938.963

2.874.060

10.
11.
12.
IV (10
12)

101
125
132

3.313.332
198.262

3.481.986
351.652

3.700.267
255.491

3.511.594

3.833.638

3.955.758

0,670

0,767

0,727

1,000

1,000

1,000

101,125,132

3.511.594

3.833.638

3.955.758

001,109

1.915.160

2.443.000

2.507.126

1.596.434

1.390.638

1.448.632

437.989

495.963

366.934

364,49

280,39

394,79

100,00%

100,00%

100,00%


(III/IV)
- . .
( ...)
13.
14.

15. (1314)
16. ,

(15/16
100)
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( ...)

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10

...

1,000
,
1,000 .

. 1

... 2009.
1,000, 5,843.
100,00 484,3 ,
. 2010.
1,000
8,730 . 100,00
773,00 . 2011.
1,000 . 4,164,
100,00 316,4
. ...
,
. 2009. ,
2010. , 2011.
,
.
1.1.1.2.


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, .
,


11

...

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.

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.2

... 2009.
0,670
1,000,
2009.. 2010.
0,767 1,000,
.
. 2011.
(0,727) (1,000)
.
, ,
3

. , . , , ,
2003., . 382.


12

...

, ,
.
( ),

.
1.1.1.3.


.
. 100%,
. ,
100,00 %,
.

.3

... 2009.
364,49% . 2010.
280,39%
. 2011. 394,79%,
2011. .
.

100,00 %.

, ,
.


13

...

1.1.2.

Dobavljai

181
odnosno
365

:
/

-
( ...)


+ /


( )

/

x 365 /


2011

2009

2010

031/142

8,052

13,680

5,670

2,000

2,000

2,000

5,830

8,730

4,164

1,000

1,000

1,000

0,761

0,584

0,258

1,000

1,000

1,000

25

67

37

(055+040)/142

055/142

(033*365)/
(202+206)



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4

. . , . . , ,
, 2010. ., . 353.


14

...

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()



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(
) (
). , .
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.
2,000, 2:1 (current - ratio). 5

.

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()
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5

. , . , , ,
2003., . 173.


15

...

2009. 8,052,
2010. 13,680
. 2011.
5,670,
.
1.1.2.2.

()

.

, . ()

. , ,
.
. 1,000
.
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1,000,
.
1,000 .
,
1,000.
.
.
.

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1,000
. 2009.
5,830, 2010. 8,730
2011. 4,164


16

...

.
.
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, .
,
( ).
1,000.
.
50% . ,
standby
.6

. 6.


... ,
(1,000).
2009.. ,
.
1.1.2.4.


.
6

. . , . . , ,
, 2010. ., . 357.


17

...

.
.

. 7.


.
2009. 25 , 2010. 67
2011. 37 ,
2009. .

. , ()
.
, .
.
.

1.1.3.


18

...

1.
2.

(1/2)

(
...)

2009

2010

2011

062
125,132

3.511.594
198.262

3.833.638
351.652

3.955.758
255.491

17,712

10,902

15,483

1,000

1,000

1,000



.

. , ,
. .
.
,
.7

. 8.


, 1,000
. .8.
... , .
1,000.
.
1.1.4.

7

Prof. dr oko N. Maleevi, Doc. dr Vitomir B. Starevi, Poslovna analiza, Fakultet poslovne ekonomije
Bijeljina, 2010. g., str. 444.


19

...

1.
101
2.
125,132
(1 + 2)
/:
:
50%
:
50%

2009

%
3.313.332
94,35
198.262
5,65
3.511.594
100,00

2010

%
3.481.986
90,83
351.652
9,17
3.833.638
100,00



2011

%
3.700.267
93,54
255.491
6,46
3.955.758
100,00


.
.
,
.
.

.
,

, , .
50%
50% .

. 9.

... 92%
,
8% .
.
.
1.1.5.


20

...

1.
-
3.

4.
5.
6.
7.
I
(1 7)
II
III
IV
V
VI

(I VII)

103
104
105
106
107
108

2009

302.500

122

9,13

302.500

110
111
114
117

30.200
2.980.632
-

2010

%
-

2011

%
-

302.500

302.500

8,69

9,13

302.500

8,18

8,69

302.500

8,18

30.200
0,87
30.200
0,82
89,96 3.149.286 90,45 3.367.567 91,01
0,91

3.313.332 100,00 3.481.986 100,00 3.700.267 100,00

,
,
.
. .
100% 2009. 89,96% ,
2010. 90,45% 2011. 91,01%.

9,13% 2009., 8,69% 2010. 8,18%
2011. .
,
1% . 2009. 0,91%
30.200.

1.2.

...


21

...


.
. : ,
.
.
:
1. ( ,
)
2. ( ) :
, ,
;
3. :
;
4. .

1.2.1.

.
I
II , ,

III
.
I ,

II ,

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
.

.
.
.

.
I

2009

2010


2011

1.915.160 54,54 2.443.000 63,73 2.507.126 63,38


1.915.160 54,54 2.443.000 63,73 2.507.126 63,38
1.596.434 45,46 1.390.638 36,27 1.448.632 36,62
437.989

12,47

495.963

12,93

366.934

9,28

1.158.445 32,99
1.005.118 28,62
150.807
4,29
2.520
0,08

894.675
828.099
59.329
7.247

23,34 1.081.698 27,34


21,60 998.090 25,23
1,55
65.851
1,66
1.144
0,03
0,19
16.613
0,42

3.511.594 100,00 3.833.638 100,00 3.955.758 100,00


3.511.594 100,00 3.833.638 100,00 3.955.758 100,00
3.313.332 94,35 3.481.986 90,83 3.700.267 93,54
302.500
8,61
302.500
7,89
302.500
7,65


22

...
1.
2.

3.
4.
5.
6.
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
.
.
I
II
1.
.
.
.

302.500
8,61
302.500
7,65
302.500
7,89
30.200
0,86
30.200
0,79
30.200
0,76
2.980.632 84,88 3.149.286 82,15 3.367.567 85,13
198.262
5,65
351.652
9,17
255.491
6,46
250.000
6,52
198.262
5,65
101.652
2,64
255.491
6,46
2.154
0,06
436
0,01
14.635
0,37
3.511.594 100,00 3.833.638 100,00 3.955.758 100,00
3.511.594 100,00 3.833.638 100,00 3.955.758 100,00


. ,
, , .


, .

39,45% 60,55%.
,
, ,
72,65% 27,35 %.

. 93%
.
302.500 .
9,13% , 0,91% 89,96%.
6,5% .
, 2010.
.
1.2.2.


23

...

1.
2.
3.
(1/2)
( ...)

2009

2010

2011

300
062/2

3.869.049
1.755.797

2.390.552
1.916.819

3.333.254
1.977.879

2,204

1,250

1,690

0,000

0,000

0,000


.

.
0,000.

. 10.


,
.
2009. 2,204
2,204
.
1.2.3.

2009

2010


2011


24

...
1.
2.
3.
4.

202,206
031/2
032/2
040/2

3.700.340
798.217
218.994,5
502.559

2.145.937
695.319,5
247.981,5
414.049,5

3.200.700
724.316
183.467
499.045

5. (1/2)
5.

4,636
79

3,086
118

4,419
83

6. (1/3)
6.

16,897
22

8,654
42

17,446
21

7. (1/4)
7.

7,363
50

5,183
70

6,414
57


,
. :
,
.

.
,
.
. 8

.11. .12.


,
.

.
8

. , . , , ,
2003., . 358.


25

...


.
,
.

.13.

.14.


.
2010. ,
2011. 17,446.
2010. 42 .

.

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.16.

,
.
50 2009.. 57 2011. .

1.3.

...


26

...

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2. ,
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1.3.1.
9

. , . , , ,
2003., . 290.


27

...

2009

2010

2011

:
1.
2.238.546 58,30
22.347
0,95
186.304
5,72
2.
1.461.794 38,07 2.123.590 90,32 3.014.396 92,57
3.

4.
52.641
1,37
5.
8.020
-0,34
35.500
1,09
6.
87.016
2,26
213.267
9,07
91.034
2,80
I (1 6)
3.839.997 100.00 2.351.184 100.00 3.256.234 100.00
:
1.
1.639.869 44,02
73.726
3,62
185.622
6,16
2.
1.765.536 47,39 1.723.895 84,60 2.502.330 83,09
3. ,

158.690
4,26
85.147
4,18
114.251
3,79
4.
30.774
0,83
12.984
0,64
18.170
0,61
5.
79.394
2,13
86.839
4,26
133.148
4,42
6.
47.608
1,28
40.124
1,97
46.895
1,56
7.
3.369
0,09
14.878
0,73
11.032
0,37
8.
157
0,004
85
0,004
114
0,004
II (1 8)
3.725.397 100,00 2.037.678 100,00 3.011.562 100,00
III

(I - II)
- . .
( ...)

114.600

313.506

244.672

IV .
(I / II)
103,08%
-
. ( ...)
100,00%

115,39%

108,12%

100,00%

100,00%

V .
((I/II)-100%)

3,08%

15,39%

8,12%

-
. (
...)

0,00%

0,00%

0,00%

1.3.1.1.


28

...


.

.

.
.
...
, 100%
98% .

. 17.

...
. 93%
. 2009.
40%,
.
, .

1.3.1.2.

.
,


29

...

.

. ,
.
:
1. ;
2. ;
3. .

.
, ,
, ,
.

, .

. 18. . .


2010. 84,6% .
2009.
.
. 2009.
3,08%, .
1.3.2.


30

...

1.
2.
3.
I

(1+2+3)
4.
5.
II

(I+4+5)

201
231
246

6.
7.
8.
III
(6+7+8)
9.
10.

IV

(III+7+8)

216
238
257

2009

3.839.997
727
28.325

%
99,25
0,00
0,75

2010

2.351.184
521
38.847

%
98,35
0,00
1,65


2011

%
3.256.234
354
76.666

97,69
0,00
2,31

3.869.049 100,00 2.390.552 100,00 3.333.254 100,00


268
270

48.472
-

1,45
-

3.869.049 100,00 2.390.552 100,00 3.333.254 100,00


3.725.397
11.805
81.570

97,55
0,31
2,14

2.037.678
29.212
90.174

94,47
1,35
4,18

3.011.562
9.237
28.194

98,77
0,30
0,92

3.818.772 100,00 2.157.064 100,00 3.048.993 100,00


269

53.245

1,39

51.327

2,37

280

3.818.772 100,00 2.157.064 100,00 3.048.993 100,00

.

,
.
,
.10
:



10

. , . , , ,
2003., . 291.


31

...

.18.

...
98%.
1%.
2011.
48.472 1,45%.
:




. 20.

. 21.

... 96%
.
,
.


32

...

1.3.3.

1. /()
2.
3. ()

4.

2009

2010

2011

293,294
295

50.277
9.677

233.488
24.833

284.261
29.981

317,318

40.600

208.655

254.280

300

3.869.049

2.390.552

3.333.254

0,010

0,087

0,076

0,000

0,000

0,000


(3/4)
-
( ...)

.

.
0,000
.

. 22.

. 22
.
0,000.
2009..
,
.


33

...

1.3.4.



.
.

,
.
,

.
.


2011

2009

2010

1.
2.
3. (1 - 2)
4.
5.
6. (3 - 4)
7. (6 - 5)

3.839.997
3.405.405
434.592
319.992
10.762
114.600
103.838

2.351.184
1.797.621
553.563
240.057
13.057
313.506
300.449

3.256.234
2.687.952
568.262
323.610
9.237
244.652
235.415

8. :
8.1. (3/6)
8.2. (6/7)
8.3. (8.1. * 8.2.)

3,79
1,10
4,17

1,77
1,04
1,84

2,32
1,04
2,41

0,113

0,235

0,175

9. (3/1)
10.
(4/9)
11.
((110)/1)100
12.
(4+5)/9
13.
((112)/1)100

2.831.788 1.021.519

1.849.200

26,26%

43,21%

56,55%

2.927.027 1.077.081

1.901.983

23,78%

41,59%

54,19%


34

...

. 23.

,
.
. 2010.
1,77,
2010., 2009. 3,79
2010. 2,32.

. ,
.
: -2009. 1,10, - 2010. 1,04 -2011. 1,04.
10%
11%.

. 2010.
1,84, 2009. 4,17.

.

. 24.


35

...


.
0,113 0,235.

. 25.



.
26,26%
56,55%.
1.3.5.
.
.
. .
: -, - , - , .
.

.
:



36

...

1. / ()
298
2.
240
3.
(1+2)
4.
102/2
5.
101/2
6.
(102+114)/2
7.
(1/4)100
-
( ...)
8.
(1/5)100
-
( ...)
9.
(3/6)x100
-
( ...)



2011

2009

2010

40.600
10.762

208.655
13.057

254.280
9.237

51.362

221.712

263.517

151.250
1.656.666
151.250

151.250
1.740.993
151.250

151.250
1.850.134
151.250

62,84%

137,95%

168,12%

0,00%

0,00%

0,00%

2,45%

13,13%

13,74%

0,00%

0,00%

0,00%

33,96%

146,59%

174,23%

0,00%

0,00%

0,00%


. ,
.11
100
. 0,000.

.
...
. 2010.
2011 13,5%, 2009.
.

11

Prof. dr oko N. Maleevi, Doc. dr Vitomir B. Starevi, Poslovna analiza, Fakultet poslovne ekonomije
Bijeljina, 2010. g., str. 405.


37

...

. 26.


.

.
, . 12

100
.

. 27.

12

Prof. dr oko N. Maleevi, Doc. dr Vitomir B. Starevi, Poslovna analiza, Fakultet poslovne ekonomije
Bijeljina, 2010. g., str. 405.


38

...

...

.
,
.
.

.
: ,
. 13
,
100 .
0,000,
.

. 28.

...
. . 28.
.
2009.
33,96%,
2011. 174,23%. .

.

13

Prof. dr oko N. Maleevi, Doc. dr Vitomir B. Starevi, Poslovna analiza, Fakultet poslovne ekonomije
Bijeljina, 2010. g., str. 406.


39

...

1.4.



...

,
,
,
.
,

. .

..
1.
1.1.
1.2.
2.
2.1.
2.2.
2.3.
3.
4.
4.1.
4.2.
5.
6.
6.1.
6.2.
6.3.
7.
8.
8.1.
8.2.
8.3.
8.4.
9.
9.1.
9.2.
9.3.



2009
2010


5,843
8,801

0,670
0,767


8,052
13,680

5,830
8,730

0,761
0,584

17,712
10,902

94,35%
90,83%

5,65%
9,17%

2,204
1,250


4,636
3,086

16,897
8,654

7,363
5,183

0,010
0,087


3,79
1,77

1,10
1,04

4,17
1,84

0,113
0,235


62,84%
137,95%

2,45%
13,13%

33,96%
146,59%

2011
4,234
0,727
5,670
4,164
0,258
15,483
93,54%
6,46%
1,690
4,419
17,446
6,414
0,076
2,32
1,04
2,41
0,175
168,12%
13,74%
174,23%

.
...
.
.


40

...


.
.

.
.

.
.

91%.
.

,
.
.
,
.
.
, .
,
.

, .

.
,
. .
.
,
.
, 2009..

.
... ,

.


41

...

2.
... Z-score ZETA
. .

1.
2.

3.
4.

1 (1/2)

2009

2010

2011

3.313.332
3.511.594
0,944

3.481.986
3.833.638
0,908

3.700.267
3.955.758
0,935

40.600
3.511.594
0,012

208.655
3.833.638
0,054

254.280
3.955.758
0,064

2 (3/4)


3 (5/6)

103.522
3.511.594
0,029

233.488
3.833.638.
0,061

284.261
3.955.758
0,072

7.
8.



4 (7/8)

3.313.332
198.262
16,712

3.481.986
351.652
9,902

3.700.267
255.491
14,483

9.
10.



5 (9/10)

3.839.997
3.511.594
1,094

2.351.184
3.833.638
0,613

3.256.234
3.955.758
0,823

12,37

7,68

10,96

'' Z ''

Z= 1,21+ 1,42 + 3,33 + 0,64 + 1,05


1,21

0,69

0,92

Z= 0,0121 + 0,0142 + 0,0333 + 0,0064 +


0,9995

5.
6.

ZETA , , .
,
. ZETA
, ,
, .
, . , ,
, . 14
,
.

.
(ZETA score)
14

www.poslovni.hr


42

...

. ZETA
( ).
Z - score
. Z - score 2,99
,
. 1,81 2,99
.
,
. Z - score 1,81 .
. .

. 29. Z-score ZETA

...
2,99.
. ,
2009..


43

...

3.
...

I (1 3)
1
2 , , .
3
II (1 5)
1
2
3
4
5
III (I-II)
IV (II-I)

I (1 7)
1
2
3
4

6
7
II (1 5)
1
2
3
4

5

III
(I-II)
IV
(II-I)

2009

2010

2011

301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312

3.022.561
3.022.561
2.801.817
2.655.565
114.251
9.237
22.764
220.744
-

313
314
315
316

317

318
319
320
321
322
323
324

178.222178.222
-

325

326

327

328

178.222

329

1.030.000


44

...

I (1 3)
1
2
3
II (1 5)
1
2
3
4
5
II
(I-II)
IV
(II-I)
(I+I+I)
(II+II+II)
(-)
(-)






(-++-)

330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338

1.030.000
1.066.000
1.030.000.
-

339

340
341
342
343
344

36.00
4.052.561
4.046.039
6.522
-

345

59.329

346

347

348

65.851

. 30.


45

...

,

,
, . ,
. ,

, .
7 ( 7),
.
...
2011.
2011..
2011.
.
...
2011. ( . 30.)
, 6.522.


46

...


... 2009. 2010.
.

.
.
.
,
,
. ,
95%,
.

.
, .
.
,
.

:
.
, .

.

(). .
Z-score ZETA
,
,

,
.
,

.
Z-score ZETA
,
.


47

...

1. . , , ,
, 2010..
2. , , ,
, 2003.
3. , ,

:
www.poslovni.hr
www.wikipedia.org
http://limun.hr/


48