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    Method of Predicting N Optimizing Production PIMS

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    US006611735B1 a2) United States Patent (0) Patent No: US 6,611,735 BL Henly et al. (45) Date of Patent: Aug. 26, 2003 (64) METHOD OF PREDICTING AND S7BLAS2 A 71008. Kecter ea OPTIMIZING PRODUCTION S706251 A * 81998 Le Fab cal 324/300 Sis10000 A” 11908 Keeler et (75) Inventors: Timothy J. Henly, Maidens, VA (US); S825}646 A 1001998 Keeler etal ‘Thomas Patrick Stocky, Glen Alle SBR16 A TUS98 Kool a ah vA ws) 5938318 A 81109 Martin et a. cthyt S.os0s2 A 9199 Codpote etal (73) Assignee: Ethyl Corporation, Richmond, VA 6002839 A 12/1999 Keeler eta (us) 6,047,221 A 4/2000. Piche et al 639255 A 122000 Pesos (4) Notice: Subject io any disclaimer, the term ofthis seem aor csc patent is extended or adjusted under 35 6210803 BI * 42001 To eta 091138, USCC. 1540) by 0 days Cau tet BL = 92001 Linda ea Diovaoe CBIneS4 BL © 112001 Gleeson eta yoann (21) Appl. No.: 09/441,964 OTHER PUBLICATIONS: (22) Filed: Nov. 17, 1999 WB. Maxwell, J.V. Hanlon, EJ. Forster, & R.M. Ponder, eonton Gosn 209 How to aocurately predict cxtane numbers of disel- fuel eaaustcd 70066, Foo, soos, blend stocks; Oil &'Gas Journal; Nov. 3, 1969 700272; 102227, 102/30 + cited by examiner (58) Field of Search 700/266, 31, 259/340; 337/300; 2191494, 102.27, 30; Primary Examiner—Jill Warden ‘424; 08/138 Assistant Examiner Brian Sines (74) Attorney, Agent, or Firm—Dennis H, Rainear (56) References Cited 67 ‘ABSTRACT US. PATENT DOCUMENTS {A process for the prediction and the optimization of the 4.355822 A * 111982 Sanchez 0081 Gulput of plant predicng products form incoming stat 45i980 A+ 101985 Parcel ea 44504 fal ‘The incoming materials are elasifed accoiing to 4,623,968 A * 11/1986 Nicse 700/266 various physical characteristics and costs. The desired or 5.353207 A 10/1994. Keeler etal SR ee prea er ld 5353207 A 101904 Kool ota Onered products ave also classified according to price and eco Ate este raea a soo hysieal requirements. The incoming materials information Seen AeR cased ocientral S940 od the product information is entered ino a database which Serato feuccea Jeu) is accessible by 4 computing device. The computing device Enos @ 1211908 Kester then calculates the optimal production process by ealeulat- Si00,0 A + ‘2/1996 Lambert eal 700266 ing'a plurality of production cycles and selecting the eycle S5an038 A 71900. Keeler ea vwth the optimum profitability. The computing device is Sisaesae Aloe. Roskr cta Programmed with non-linear equations derived from a 5,559,690 A 9/1996 Keeler etal regressive analysis of data collected from samples of incom- Sexson. A 3/907 Keeler oa ing materials and products ‘A 10/1997 Keeler et al. P A "Some Recerca A G1008 Godhole al 24 Claims, 1 Drawing Sheet U.S. Patent Aug. 26, 2003 US 6,611,735 B1 Figure 1 US 6,611,735 BL 1 METHOD OF PREDICTING AND. ‘OPTIMIZING PRODUCTION BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention ‘The present invention relates generally to a process and method for the prediction of the properties of and the ‘optimization of a plant’s output of products from a source or ‘sources of raw material. More specifically, the present invention relates to a pro- ‘cess and method for increasing the predictability and prot itability of operations where a series of raw materials are ‘combined and processed into intermediate or final products by optimizing the cost structure ofthe raw materials, and the ‘output of final or intermediate products to result in the lowest cost materials input and highest value production ‘output. ‘The present invention also relates to the optimization of refining processes and petroleum blending operation to result in the highest value production output from available fuel stocks. ‘The present invention also relates to the accurate predic~ tion of final properties ofa blended fuel utilizing non-linear imation and propery pred 2. Description of the Prior Art Fuel Additive Industry tis well known in the petroleum and other industries to ‘maximize profitability by blending fuel stocks with appro- priate additives to increase their commercial value. Ethyl Corporation, of Richmond Va. supplies many fuel additives, including a diesel cetane improver known commercially as DII-3™ which is used to raise the cetane level of a diesel fuel stock and thereby make otherwise lower-valued fuel Stocks into valuable commercial fuels. MMT (manganese ‘methyleyclopentadieayl manganese tricarboay!) is a fuel additive, also manufactured by Ethyl Corporation, of Rich- ‘mond Va, that provides octane enhancement while reducing the amount of erude oil necessary to produce gasoline. Ethyl Corporation additionally manufactures the HiTEC® 4700 Series of antioxidants, including hindered phenolics and iphenylamines to JP8+100 jet fuel additive which have known effects on the fuel. Performance fuels for varied applications and engine requirements are known for controlling combustion cham- ber and intake valve deposits cleaning port fuel injectors and carburetors, protecting against wear and! oxid: improving lubricity and emissions performance, and ensur- ing storage stability and cold weather flow. Fucl detergents, dispersants, corrosion inhibitors, ion preventers, and performance additives rerease desirable properties of fuels. It is known that mixtures of fuels and additives can inerease andl decrease desired properties in a resultant fuel blend SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION ‘The present invention contemplates supplying to an end user tool for the prediction of and the consequent optimi- zation of production from a plant which creates products from available raw materials. ‘The tool includes an update-able database of incoming, raw material properties, preferably including physical prop- ctlies as well as economic properties, c.g the cost of those 20 os ss 4s ss 6s 2 raw materials. The tool also includes a database of blend- stock properties, product specifications, processes, and the ‘market price for the final and/or end product. A user can input the available raw material stocks, including their costs and available volumes, and input the standing production orders, including price and minimum acceptable values, and the computing device will determine the accurate properties ff the outcoming product and the optimum value to be extracted for a production run based on the available data. In one embodiment, including by way of example diesel fuel stocks with cetane improver or pour point improvers, a ‘method is disclosed utilizing linear and non linear equations to more accurately predict the cetane number, pour point, and/or other properties of the resulting fuel product In another embodiment, the present invention discloses a ‘method of accurately predicting a characteristic of a product to be prepared by a processing plant, by providing an incoming material having at least one measured property, selecting at least one product having a desired characteristic to be prepared from said incoming material by said process- ing plant, selecting a process 10 be used by the processing plant to produce the product with its characteristic, and calculating a predicted value of the characteristic of the product utilizing a predictive equation. The predictive equa tioa is a validated noa-linear equation generated by regres- sive analysis of an accumulation of data relating the mea- sured property ofthe incoming material, the process, and the characteristic of the product. As used hereinbelow, “reactor” should be construed in its broadest sense, fo include mixing vessels, distillation columns, thermal cracking devices, ete. which may admix, treat, react or otherwise affect a material therein. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS FIG. Lisa step block diagram of an exemplary production process. DETAILED DESCRIPTION Petroleum Generally Crude oil, as a natural product, is very different in chemical composition depending upon the point of origin. Petroleum occurs throughout the world, and commercial fields have been located on every continent, erude oil from ceach region having very differeat properties. Petroleum is an extremely complex mixture and consists primarily of hydro- carbons as well as compounds containing nitrogen, oxygen, and sulfue, Most petroleums also contain minor amount of nickel and vanadium, Petroleums have a variety of different ‘components with boiling ranges from about 20° C. to above 650° C. For an excellent discussion of the many and varied propertics of crude oils, one may tum to, eg. Marks” Standard Handbook for Mechanical Engineers, Tenth Edition, T. Baumeister, McGraw Hill, 1996 (ISBN 0-07- (004997-1), “Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels, J. G. Speight, pp. 7-10 through 7-14, which are incorporated herein by reference The chemical and physical properties of petroleum vary considerably because of the variations in composition Crude oils are rarely used as fuel because the properties do not meet the specifications required by cither furnaces, boilers, or engines. Crude ois, being complex mixtures of various complex chemical, are not predictably mixed as the properties co not blend linearly. US 6,611,735 BL 3 Refining Processes Petroleum raw materials, e.g. erude oil from any of various sources in nature, are distilled into various fractions having differing commercial value Distillation separates the crude oil into fractions equiva- Jent in boiling range 10 gasoline, Kerosene, diese! fuel, lubricating oi, and residual. Thermal or catalytic eracking is used to convert Kerosene, gas oil, or residual to gasoline, lower boiling fractions, and residual coke, Catalytic reforming, isomerization, alkylation, polymerization, hydrogenation, and combinations of these and other cata- Iytic processes are used to upgrade the various refinery intermediates into improved gasoline stocks or distillates ‘The major finished products are usually blends of a number of stocks, plus additives. ‘Typical end products include gasoline, jet fuel, diesel uel, residual products, specialty produets, and petroleum coke, Gasoline is a complex mixture of hydrocarbons that istlls within the range of 100 to 400° F, Commercial sgasolines are blends of straight-run, cracked, reformed, and natural gasolines. ‘The specifications for gasoline (ASTM D439 and D4814, by reference) provide for classes, varying from low-volatility 2480- lines to minimize vapor lock to high-volatilty gasoline that permits easier starting during cold weather ‘Aviation gasoline has a narrower boiling range than motor ‘gasoline. It has fewer low boiling and high boiling compo- nents. Aviation gasoline is defined by ASTM D910. Kerosene is less volatile than gasoline and has a higher flash point, to provide greater safety in handling. Other ‘quality tests are specific gravity, color, odor, distillation range, Sulfur content, and burning quality. Specific tests for ‘quality include flashpoint (minimum 115° F), distillation ‘erxlpoint (tmaximum 572° F) sulfur (maximum 0.13 percent) and color (minimum +16) according to ASTM DIST. Jet or Aviation turbine fuels are not limited by antiknock requirements and have wider boiling point ranges to assure sreater availability for general aviation, Their properties are specified by ASTM D1655. Military requirements are as set forth in Military Specifications Mil5624 (IP-4 and JP-5), Mil-T-83133 (JP-8), and Mil-P-87107 (JP-10). Diesel fuel is a liquid product distilled over the range of 350° C. to 650° F. The carbon number ranges from about C10 to C18. The chemical composition of a typical diese! fuel and how it applies tothe individual specifications —APL gravity, distillation range, pour point, and flash point—are directly attributable to both the carbon oumber and the ‘compound classes present in the finished fuel Diesel fuels are measured in several aspects according to ASTM standards. They include API gravity (ASTM D1298), total sulfur (ASTM. D262), boiling point (ASTM D86), flash point (ASTM D93), pour point (ASTM D97), hydro- xen content (ASTM D3701), cetane number (ASTM D613), acid number (ASTM D974), water and sediment content {ASTM D1796), kinematic viscosity (ASTM D445), carbon residue on 10% residuum (ASTM D524), Ash (wt %) max {ASTM D482) and distillation temp (ASTM D86). ‘The various diesel fuels for motor use require variability in performance since the engines range in size from small, high speed engines used in trucks and buses, to large, low-speed stationary engines for power plants. Thus, ASTM D975 provides for the specifications of a variety oF diesel fuels. ‘The combustion characteristics of diesel fuels are ‘expressed in terms of the cetane mimber, a measure of as os ss 4s ss ry 6s ignition) is desirable for a smooth running engine. Some diesel fuels contain cetane improvers, which usually are alkyl nitrates. The cetane number is determined by engine test (ASTM D613) or an approximate value, termed the cetane index, can be calculated for fuels which do not contain a cetane improver. ‘The value of each of these components fluctuates on a daily basis, depending on supply and demand, market fac~ tors such as political disturbance in oil-producing regions, and weather, among others. A lively futures market exists for various grades of crude oil and refined products. Keeping track of the cost of raw materials and prices of intermediate or finished products on a day-to-day basis is « daunting task, Processing erude oil is an exteaordinarily complicated matter. The oil refinery separates the crude oil into indi- vidual compounds, or, more often, distillation fractions that consist of compounds with similar properties. Business Models and Solutions Operating a refinery or fuel blending and distillation plant is extraocdinarily complex. Operating one in the most prof itable manner possible is likewise exponentially more dif- ficult, Several treatises are available to help in the under- standing of the petroleum industry and refining, such as Petroleum Refinery Process Economics, R. E. Maples, 1993, PennWell Publishing Company, Tulsa Okla. (ISBN (0-87814-384-X) and Petroleum Refining for the Nontechni- cal Person, W. L. Leffler, 1979, 1985, PennWell Publishing Company, Tulsa Okla. (ISBN 0-87814-280-0), each of which is incomporated by reference. Multiple software programs are available to assist in the economic running of a refinery. They include several com- ‘mercially available from Aspen ‘Tech, Cambridge, Mass. (02141-2200. Aspen PIMST™ is a PC-based linear program- ‘ming sofiware module used by the petroleum ant petro- chemical industries. The software is capable of handling detailed operations planning, economic evaluation and scheduling activities based upon the cost and availability of raw materials, capacity considerations, and the demand for output. ‘Aspen PIMS™ are a series of software tools for economic planning in the process industries, The system is designed to run on & Pentium® class processor, or higher. Operating system platforms include Windows 95™, and Windows NI™ ‘Aspen PIMS™ employs a linear programming (LP) tech- nique utilizing a CPLEX™ optimizer, available from ILOG CPLEX Division, Incline Village, Nev. 89451, to optimize the operation and design of refineries, petrochemical and chemical plants or other facilities. I is stated to be useful for such varies processes as evaluation of alternative feedstocks and product slates, optimization of operating decisions and product blending, and sizing of plant units in grass-roots and expansion studies, ‘Aspen PIMS™ Scheduling Sofiware assis in the prepa ration of detailed operating plans for material receipts, process operations, prodiet blending and product shipments, SDPIMS™, also available from Aspen Tech, is software which models complex multiple-source, multiple-product, ‘multiple-mode, multiple-tiered pricing, multiple-destination supply and distribution sytems and develops an optimized, least-cost solution for the entire network. Among other items, the time value of money is taken info account, as are time period lags for product shipments, and minimum, ‘maximum, and target inventories. ‘Aspen PIMS' Refinery Scheduling System is software which is said to schedule refinery and petrochemical plant US 6,611,735 BL 5 ‘operations from feedstock arrivals to blendstock produ while Aspen PIMS™ Product Scheduling System is designed fo schedule product blending and shipping activ ties. Aspen PIMS™ Pipeline Scheduling System is designed to schedule product deliveries through a pipeline network from product source through pumpstations and depots to final delivery point In terms of the underlying crude oil related products and their properties, PassMan™ also available from Aspen, is PIMS®* crude oil assay manager whose function is to serve as a manager of a erude oil library and to output a table of ‘erude oil data that is recut to the needs of the end user either for input into their linear production model or other appli ‘cations. Other assay databases are available Optimization Sunset Sofiware Technology, based in San Marino, Calif 91108, supplies multiple optimization algorithm based prod- ucts. Sunset’s products include linear, binary, mixed-integer, interior point (barrie) and quadratic programming products and services, which operate on platforms ranging from PC's to UNIX workstations, They include products currently marketed under the following names: XA Linear Optimizer System™, XA Binary and Mixed Integer Solver, XA Barrier Solver™, XA Quadratic Solver™, XA Parallel MIP Solver™, and XA Callable Library CPLEX™ Base Development system, available from ILOG, includes several commercial optimizers—primal ‘Simplex, dual Simplex, and network Simplex solvers for linear programming problems. This program is in one ‘embodiment configured with the CPLEX Callable Library", which provides CPLEX algorithms in a library of CPLEX algorithmic and utility coutines, Tae CPLEX Mixed Integer Solver Option™ includes the capability to solve problems with mixed integer variables (general or binary), utilizing algorithms and techniques, including cuts (cliques & covers), heuristics, and a variely of branching and node selection strategies. CPLEX Barrier/QP Solver™ is a primal-dual log barrier algorithm with predictor corrector said to be useful for solving certain classes of linear pro- gramming models and quadratie programming problems. |AIMMS™ (Advanced Integrated Multidimensional Mod- cling Software), available from Paragon Decision Technol- ogy B.V., P.O. Box 3277, 2001 DG Haarlem, The Netherlands, isa software package which allows modelers to ‘create functional analytic decision support applications. AIMMS contains a graphical model explorer, which builds and maintains complex (optimization-based) modeling applications. AIMMS is said to be capable of modeling a particular (optimization-based) decision support problem, ‘creating an end-user interface around the model suitable for use by end users, AMPL™ modeling language, available from CPLEX (a division of IG) is an algebraic modeling language for linear, nonlinear, and integer programming problems. It is said to be useful for optimization model types including lincar programming problems, network problems, mixed integer programming problems, quadratic programming problems, and general non-linear programming problems. ‘The General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS™), available from GAMS Development Corporation, 1217 Potomac Street NW, Washington, D.C, 20007 USA is soft- ware capable of modeling linear, nonlinear and mixed integer optimization problems, GAMS ean solve LP, MIP and different forms of NLP models. MPL™ (Mathematical Programming Language), av able from Maximal Software, Inc., 2111 Wilson Boulevard, as 20 os ss 4s ss 6s 6 Suite 700, Arlington, Va. 22201, U.S.A. is a modeling system that permits the construction of complex models, involving thousands of constraints which allows the import of data directly from a database and then export of the solution back into the database. Models developed in MPL can be used with nearly all LP-solvers on the market today as MPL supports « number of industrial strength solvers, ‘The mathematical technique knowa as linear program- ‘ming is commonly used by many of the above programs to solve a variety of indusicial and sci ‘problems by arriving at an “optimal solution”. Linear programming CLP") has existed from about the 1940's. It works by creating an LP“model” which represeats some situation that is then solved to discover the optimum plan ‘A valid LP model must have four elements. First, there ‘must be an objective function. Generally for business mod= els the value to maximize is profi, and the value 10 be minimized is usually cost or distance, Each activity in the ‘model contributes to this objective, either favorably. or unfavorably. Second, there are limited resources. For example, a machine can only run for 24 hours in a day, or only so muich material is available to purchase, Third, there ‘must be linear relationships between activities and these resources. For example, one relationship might be the num- ber of machine hours which should be operated and how ‘much material should be bought. Finally, there must be an assumption of certainly, ic. an assumption that these con= ditions in the model will be resolved feasibly. A more sophisticated technique known as stochastic programming exists to handle probability-based programming. ‘A variety of industrial LP applications have been devel- ‘oped to solve varying requirements. For example, inthe field of product planning, one can plan an appropriate mix by solving the LP for optimal production quantities of products Subject to resource capacity ane! market demand constrains. For blends, one can solve for optimal proportions of ingre- dlients for products such as gasoline, foods, livestock Feeds, subject to certain minimal requirements, For distribution, one can use LP to solve for optimal shipping assignments from factories to distribution centers or from warehouses to retailers. For location planning, ¢. of facilites, one can determine the optimal location of a plant or warehouse with respect to total transportation costs between various alternative locations and existing supply ‘and demand sources, For process control, one ean use LP models to, eg. solve for the cutting pattern that minimizes the amount of serap material, given the dimensions of a roll or sheet of raw ‘material. For scheduling, one can use LP to determine the ‘miaimum-cost assignment of workers to shifis subject to varying demand. For vehicles, one can assign available vehicles to jobs ane determine the number of tips to make, subject to vehicle size, availabilty, and demand constraints Similarly, for routing, one can solve for the optimal routing ff a prosuct through a number of sequential processes, cach with its own capacities and characteristics. For production planning, one can solve for minimum-cost production scheduling for a given work foree, taking into account inventory cafrying and subcontracting costs. The ‘management of production and work force may be accom- plished by LP by solving for minimum-cost produetion scheduling, taking into account hiring and layolf costs as well as inventory carrying, overtime, and subcootracting costs, subject to various capacity and policy constraints, Furthermore, one can solve for optimal staffing for various calegories of workers, subject to various demand and policy constraints, US 6,611,735 BL 7 More sophisticated techniques involve the modification of | standard LP techniques, but which relax some of the assumptions of the basic LP model. Integer, binary, and mixed integer program modeling allow for activities that may only be conducted incremen- tally. With shipping for example, if one truckload is shipped, ‘cosis of the truck must be calculated whether one pallet of 24 pallets are shipped [Non-linear programming allows for non-linear relation- ships between activities and constraints, while stochas programming allows for uncertainty. ‘A presently preferred optimizer program for the instant invention is What'sBest!™ 40, available from Lindo Systems, Inc., 1415 North Dayton Street, Chicago, Il (60622, USA, which is an add-in to Excel™ (available from Microsoft, Inc. Redwood, Wash.) that allows the building of large scale optimization models in a free form layout within a spreadsheet, What'sBest!™ combines the linear, nonlinear and integer optimization with Microsolt™ Exeel™ ‘Optimization in the Petroleum Industry ‘AS noted above, there are many uses for various petro- eum products, and cach end use, ¢.g of diesel fucl has ‘varying requirements for the product for safe, enviroamen- tally conscious, and economical use. However, the fuel stocks on hand may frequently be limited 10 ronoptimal fuel stocks. For example, the reflner may need to determine whether it is more economical to blend a distillate componeat, such as Light Cycle Oil, into diesel or into residual product. Each of the fuels has a Jifferent value, and each of the raw materials (diesel fuel Stocks, residual stocks, cetane improvers, etc) has a diferent value as a blending component “The traditional approach has included mixing stocks in a blending operation to attempt to solve supply issues, but the accurate prediction of non-linear properties combined with a maximization of profit potential has been limited by the Tinear nature of the optimization soltware. There has been until now no validated way to accurately predict the prop crlies of complex systems, eg, blended fuels, additive ‘enhanced fuels, and the like. In production, refiners are frequently forced to remeasure the data and compare it t0 a predicted value, making production decisions based upon these predicted properties delayed andjor flawed. In one embodiment of the present invention, a complex production process can be more elfectively managed from a business standpoint by assessing the relative values of incoming materials or components of the final product, and accurately predicting the properties of the final products. ‘Turning to FIG. 1, a hypothetical production scenario is represented by the step block diagram. Various raw material sources, each having different properties, are labeled A, By C, D and E, Production reactors R1 and R2 are available for the mixing or other processing of the raw materials. Desired ‘end or final products are 1, If and IL Raw materials AE may be virtually any raw material— ‘crude oils for distillation, gasoline stocks for blending, additives and fuels for specialty fuel production, sands (e. silica) for raw glass or ceramic production, paint pigments and solvents for paint systems, particulates for alloy manu- facture by tape casting, die casting, sintering, annealing, grains for cereal or bread production, nutraceuticals for vitamin manufacture, ete. The raw materials may be com- binable by mixing, reacting, or otherwise commingling; or ‘may be separatable by fractionation, distilling, cracking, or the like. 5 10 os ss 4s ss 6s 8 Each applicable industry to which this invention may be applied will bave its own known methods of mixing, producing, refining, etc., which result in known products, ‘The following examples, while most exemplary of the invention in the petroleum blending and additive industry, should not be construed as limiting, as the invention has far-ranging uses which one skilled in the art, having regard for this disclosure, will easily be able to achieve. Fuels are blended differently for seasons and uses, as illustrated above. There are several different categories of blendstocks available for fuel use—aviation, Kerosene, gasoline, diesel, and residual are the most common. ‘The blending of fuels is not represented by & linear relationship. Given the complex nature of the various pet- rochemicals present in fuelstocks, simply mixing a fuel component of a known cetane number, for example, with another of known cetane number does not necessarily result in an intermediate cetane number fuel. It is possible for a blended fucl to have a lower cetane number than either of the ‘component diesel fuels, resulting in a loss in value (negative blending). Thus, it is vital to the economic survival of the refiner or manufacturer to have an accurate prediction of the properties and values of the resulting product. By way of nonlimiting example, one possible manufac~ turing operation is the creation of a diesel fuel, by blending fuel streams and/or by the inclusion of a cetane improver. ‘The standard method to measure the cetane number is the use of a cetane engine as described in ASTM D613. It is possible presently to predict cetane number with the cetane index equations indicated in ASTM D976 and ASTM 'D4737. However, such cetane index prediction models gen- erally have an error of at least 2 cetane numbers. This is a costly error which can result in “cetane giveaway”. Not only is cetane index a poor predictor, it does not take into account the improvement in cctane number caused by additives. ‘Thus, if pipeline has a requirement of a cetane number of 40, the cetane index must be at least 42 to assure the ‘minimal requirements of the pipeline are being met. Table I, below indicates the cetane standards for the Colonial Pipe- line Company, of Atlanta, Ga. TABLE I Colonial Ppelise Company Specfations for Fngile Low Slr Diesel Fuel (lane only) se Noi Ginde 72 ASTM Tet __Te Rest PRODUCT PROPERTY __Mettod_Min_Max__Noves Naw Ccetne Number pes * (Cetin ter a 24 Sores 1 Where cetane number by tt method D613 i mt avisble test method [D976 or DATS can he aed ar an approximation Minimtmcxtane index (of 2 aocoume for /~ 2 acurcy ofthe clae index mtb a app: ‘ing cet number. As may be seen from the above, one supplying fuel to the Colonial Pipeline using the standaed Cetane Index calcula- tion must supply fuel of a minimum of 42 cetane index, in effect giving away the commercial value of 38, and poten- tially 42 cetane number diesel fuel. Cetane Number must be determined using a Cetane Engine after the blend has been formulated and prepared, which is often to late 10 be of substantial economic advantage during. preparation and blending. US 6,611,735 BL 9 However, with the novel invention, suflicient data is collected on a wide range of properties relating o a plurality Of fvel components such that an extremely accurate predie- tion of the cetane number may be made. ‘Accurate prediction of the properties of the resultant proxiuct is important to assist in optimizing the output of a plant which produces such products; for example, the opera- torof such a plant may make more of a higher priced product than a lower priced product and thereby maximize profit, so Tong as the operator is assured that the final product will meet specifications. By means of this invention, additional ‘components or reblending after formulation is not needed. Ladommatos and Goacher in “Equations for predicting the cetane number of diesel fuels from their physical properties", Fuel, Vol. 74 No. 7, pp. 1083-1093 (1995) derived twenty-two equations for predicting the cetane num- ber of diesel fuels. Likewise, Maxwell et all in “How to accurately predict cetane numbers of diesel-fuel blend stocks", Oil and Gas Journal, Nov. 3, 1969 developed predictive equations for cetane value, These articles. are incorporated by reference as if fully set forth herein, Each of these articles, however, fails to provide a reliable prediction of the variety of properties required by a complex ‘system of physical parameters. They rely primarily upon the ‘cetane index, which alone is notoriously inaccurate. ‘An exemplary prediction of the cetane number of diesel fuel containing additives will be discussed as follows. ‘Turning aow to Table Il, several diesel fuel properties are indicated which are important for meeting the various ASTM or military specifications for such fuels (see, eg, ASTM D975), TABLE IL DIESEL, FUEL PHYSICAL PROPERTIES Tydraibon Type Gaon coment Hyiroge coment, ‘Sitar coment, Nitrogen coment [APL pci) gvity itlaion ange ‘Cuase aber ‘Aailice pat Kisemati vscoiy ‘loud poise Pour pot Flash poist Data were collected on 154 low sulfur diesel fuels to derive cetane-prediction equations for diesel fuels with and Without the addition of « cetane improver. The equations ‘were derived by the use of statistical analysis including multiple linear regression fo derive equations to predlict the ‘cetane number of fuels notin the original dataset. Equations ‘containing different combinations of variables were devel- ‘oped to accommodate laboratories with different analytical ‘capabilities. The invention thus provides prediction models using from 4 10 8 or more input variables. ‘The equations were then validated with twenty new fuels fot in the original data set of 154 fuels. ‘The equations derived are a set of non: as follows: Definitions CN=cetane number (ASTM D613) CN 0, 1000, 2500, 5000, 7500, 10000 cetane number with ppmv of cetane improver DII-3™ incar calculations 20 os s 4s ss 6s 10 "T90stemperature at which 90% of the material boiled off CC) “T50=temperature at which 50% of the material boiled off CC) ‘T10=temperature at which 10% of the material boiled off (eC) ANPT=aniline point (°C.) VISC40m at 40° C. (ASTM D445) D976=cetane index as provided by ASTM D976 CLOUD=temperature at which wax crystallization occurs CC) SPGR=specific gravity (a0 dimension) FIAAROM-=aromatic content (vol. %) measured by ASTM DI3s19 ‘The exemplary preferred models for diesel fuel cetane number prediction upon inclusion of a cctane improver follow: MODEL 1 (Wherein There are 5 Inputs) ON GH 504(-01072078) ANP HO 307 VEVISCHAL ISITE 16x 95654 LOUD aD 3557431572601 (ON 1000=T80x(-0083739)pANPTW0277614VISCAD 14951212}¢D976eS88088+CLOUDsd206887440.162208 (ON 2800s T804(-1096800 pANPTW02521264VISCA 13989991) D97be. 67H S-CLOUDsD, 19483842 384571 ON s100-T20x(-0.090088)rANPTH0 0841 34VISCAD( 1: 183015)+D9 760.6461 CLOUD «0 1695364].297981 (ON 7500=T804(-0076015)pANPTW03625834VISC4D- 1.306567)+D975x0 649497 CLOUD«D 137100438 77915 {EN 10000-T90(-1.069705)rANPT a0 43999¢4VISCA0s(— 1.287463)4D9 7x 6032634CLOUD HO LDSSS648. 740895 MODEL 2 (5 Inputs) {en =t40-1700224Tn(-0.090226)SPGRH(-28838652)4 FIAROM(-0.119872)+CLOUD»0 2186964237. 776061 [EN SOO 381854 THY. 106238)4SPORK(-256007975)6 FIAROMn(-.112268 CLOUD» 2419814289 829051 (eN2S00=SO40 1850516 TH 107282 )¥SPOR(-254 74466 HIAROMa(-1.121278)+CLOUDx.2300624269 911717 {eNS00D=TS040-192809470%(-0.103608)4SPGR(-267.88825)+ FIIAROMa(-0148856)}«CLOUDx. 211281427343 7865 (CN S0DTSe0 2079474 T s(n 092889 )}SPORH(-288.78141)¢ TIAROMa(-.169967)xCLOUDHO. 180886282 147518 {ew 00000 5050.21581740%(-0.086368)+SPGR(- 18549607 }sFHAROM(-1,193056)sCLOUDxD 157305 palan7ae MODEL 3 (5 Inputs) (CN 0a1040050862¢TS0n0.132853T909(-0073070)4SPORK(= '319.241654}4CLOUDx0.1584334205.090575 LENT I0A0 05520347500. 13H07ET9Ou(-1087338)+ ‘SP Ra(-382515775)6CLOUDe 2219716313561782 (CN2S00-1040.0552856 TS. 1854874T9D4(-6088119)4 'SPGR(-347.066883}4CLOUD«0 28400e528.012819 ‘CNT 2040:091 782¢TSOnd. 118304 -0.06047}4SPGR (C371 89545)aCLOUDaO.181616544.864028, (ENS T1040 12032860. 1058S HET OES) 'SPRe(-408 880741) sCLOUD ass4e363 855067 ‘en no00-TIN90 1375996 TS0x.085245 1904-03278) ‘SPR (42.9 74629)2CLOUD x 158554576491798, US 6,611,735 BL u MODEL 4 (3 Inputs) (CNDANPTH0.2811224¥1SC40a(-1.030159)4D5760.65189 CNIDI0-ANPT.0.2408814VISC4O4(-0.905077) 69750 794587 (CR2SiD“ANFDA0.217108+VISCHOw(-1074088)+DOT6x0 9148576 (CNSDID“ANPTA0 2681564 VISCHe(-1338108)+D97640 936531 (CNTSI0-ANPT«@ 304818 ¢VISCHOn(- CRIDIOOSANFD:a 38344 VISCHO«(-128002)4D9 7640 908473 MODEL 5 (7 Inputs) “eNDeTI04= 05888604 Sx9040 ND044{E9O}(-0.000992)+ "THOSPGR w0.526)11+T00/SPGRKO425314-61 399604 “CN InI0=T1G«.0-43246TSAT9O40.0004834(T)(- ThO0I 215) LOSSPCRad 425422490 SPORKDS3S00- s1st27 eN2SILTIOA=0.473346 SOx %O90.0004584(T90)a(- 126) 10SSPGRad ASSTOS0 TI SPORKA.S42029- ‘CaSpIDAT 104-0 5823454TS049090.0003904(T90)>e(- 1h00213)+TSPGRKO 5785786 THOSPGRRD S086 7380591 (EN 7S10-TI0n-0.6247134 TSH 9OH0.9002594(T90)(- Tno0s125)+T10/SPORs0 6390614 TPOSPORSOS24471- 79914841 “extmoo-tinx-0.72336¢TS0xT5090.008464(T90)>(= "hn01046)}+10/SPGRKD. 727228410 SPORTS yas Cetane numbers at intermediate concentrations of cetane improver are calculated by interpolating the values from these formulae. The formulse may be reduced to lower ‘oumbers of significant figures, eg. 2, 3, or 4 with minimal loss of accuracy of prediction. ‘This method allows the calculation of cetane numbers of the product from the properties of the components, and does not rely on the cetanes. As discussed infra, many of the ingredients in a complex chemical system react in a n0n- linear fashion and result in unexpected properties. Accumu- lation of data and the subsequent inclusion of corrections in nonlinear model enables the inveative method to provide a far more accurate prediction of the properties of the resultant composition or system ‘The formulas which follow, containing fewer significant igs, also provide the benefits of the instant invention Model 1 (CNm0073T2040.308KANPT-1152xV1SCH040 957% D97eH0.180HCLOUD¥SLST ‘cN100~-0.95575471040.27SeANPT-0.8512xV1SCH0¥0 590 ‘€N2810--0,0681nT1D4l 252D4ANPT-5800xVISCHO¥0 670% 197640, 1949xCLOUDHD. 38 ‘CNS010=-0.050054 1040 308ANPT=1 183VISCAD¥0 646 1D976¥0.15954CLOUDH4i.3) EN 7S10=-047602xT1D40 36244ANPT=1 ADMRVISCHDAD 95 €10000e-0.69714T3040,419ANPT-=1.257AVISCH040 603% 1D976r0.1086xC1OUD#3875 ‘A generic formula is also provided which is suitable for the practice of the instant invention: 0 os x» 4s 6s 12 ENX)ATION(-0.9697 to -109681}4ANFT(02521 to 0.4190}¢ ‘VISCA(0.9812 to =1.307}D976x(0.4987 to 0.6700} CLOUDs(0.1086 1 0-25}4(3157 to 4238, where (X) equals ppm of cetane improver. Moxtel 2 {eN0A0 17004130-11090224190-238 4S POR. 1199%E- "AAROMA0.2187%CLOUD297.8 {EN N00 18024700, 10622190-256.1xSPOR-0.11250F- "AAROMA0.2819xCLOUD 259.8 {€N25000 186147500, 10731190-266:TxSPOR-0.12134F- "AAROMA0.231NCLOUD 268. {eNS00020.192T50-0,10872190-267 SxSPOR-0.148AF- "AAROMA0.211 KCLOUDI2738 (EN 750000.207T50-1105233190-283.SPOR-0.17O08HT- "AARONA0.18294CLOUD282.1 {CN 0000.21 53e9-.08637490-285.5eSPOR-0 1951 "AAROMA0.15754CLOUDS21.7 ble for A generic formula is also provided which is sui the practice of the instant invention: EN QX)=TS0%(0.1700 to 1.2163) POH(-1.08637 to -0.1073)e 'SPGR(- 2864 t9 “P85 5)oFTAAROM(-1. 1125 f9 =11953)+ CLOUDS(O1874 6 0.2419}42378 19 2821, where (X) equals ppmy of cetane improver. Model 3 (CNOA 528607 1060.1525450-N.07S0TBO-F12.24S FORE I9s4CLOUD 295.1 ‘CN o1-0.0S520eT 194, 1391xTS0-0087324190-332 SPORE 11222iKCLOUDSI6 [eN25000.15525eT 1D, 137K TSO-00AIHTOO-S48 SPORE Vh2085xCLOUD3280 {eNS000W0 191 HTD, 118DHTSN-OK947CTHN-371-KSPOR AsICLOUD SES (eN1500=0 1202x7100 1056xS0-0.045574P90-A088HSPGRY VideaxCLOUDY3689 (en 000 1377 1060, 05925,TS0-00397 4490-422 SPORE Tha3seCLOUDs3745 ‘A generic formula is also provided which is suitable for the practice of the instant invention: [EN =TI0A(008286 to 0.1377HTSOH(0.0992 to 11391)¢T90 {3774 to =1.08730)oSPGIRA(-319.2 to —$2210CLOUD (0.1188 100.2220)402581 w 3743), where (X) equals ppmv of cetane improver Model 4 (CN 060.281xANPP-10304VISC0406519KD976 LEN 0 24034ANPF-0. 900 VISC4D 79460076 (€N250040.217 KANFT-1075xV1SC4040 91470875 (eNS1«0.2S32KANPF-1336RVISCHN40 936540076 (ENTSOM0 SOSANPF-1.3224V1SCH040 93460976 (EN 100000 A5344ANFT-1.255xV1SCA040 0550975 US 6,611,735 BL 13 ‘A generic formula is also provided which is suitable for the practice of the instant invention: ENCHANPTN(02171 w 03834) 4VISCAD 99001 t -135)+ Do Fon(as19 #0 09368), ‘where (X) equals ppm of cetane improver. Model 5 ‘catn-0.5555xr 1060. n9045HeTSOXTBO-0.9008524CT909% Sex T1QSPGRIO 26x TOSPGR- £8.40 “es t000-.44354r N60 n0$834TSAT90-0.001215«(T90)%* 1142s4T10SPORN S304 T90'SPOR-S153 en2s10e-0.47334T 1040 candsbeTSORTON-(LCOr226(T+ 1488s T)SPORS2204T90)SPOR-T9 54 ‘eNsings-0 58034 1040.00n30%TSOKTON-(G01130K(090F+ 1736. 1OSPGRStséx190SPOR-T3 52 ‘EN TSI0=06247HT 1040-00035 TSOETIN-0,001125HCT99)¢ Wst2oxTOSPORN.S248xTOOSPOR-2.9] eN10000e-0.723« Ti04o.n00346xTSOKT0-0.010464CT907 11.7277 SPOR 87x TSSPGR= 75.34 ‘A generic formula is also provided which is suitable for the practice of the instant invention: ENC) T1O«(-04438 19 -0.7225 S41. 000846 v9 1):100483}+(T90)x(-0000992 to ~0.003228)+TIOSPGRe (04254 1 0.7272} +T90/SPGR(04263 fo O.S420}+-0440 to -81.83), ‘where (X) equals ppm of cetane improver Turning now to Table TI below, a comparison of the values ofthe extane number of 20 fuels, calculated-by the prior art methods (D:976, D-4737, and’ CGSB (Canadian General Standards Bureau method) versus the instant mod + cls is illustrated. ‘TABLE IIL ‘Model Model Madel a 8S O88 sie S07 a1 409 Bas as 87 a8 c 42 a7 43 as Das 410 BS aks Bas us 40 as Fou wa 2 asa oa tha 462480 Hats sue se 509 3 482 44 oat K SIT sus S31 533 Moho a7 92 M3 Na wo 4S? Po Ba 2 ise ow aa a8 R86 32 4a S48 oo ea 1 412 2486 ten RMSE 303 0 as os 14 actual samples, and resulting blended products. The prop- erties are then entered into a database or spreadsheet and correlated to cetane number by Linear regression analysis. In another preferred embodiment, there are at least 4 (four) properties measured for each component used in the final blend. Five, six, seven, or more properties are also acceptable, and there may be as many as required to for- ulate a statistically proper prediction equation. Preferably, the prediction calculation is tied into a spreadsheet, such as Excel™, even more preferably along with additional calculations such as cost. Initially, the prod uct to be produced, and its characteristics are selected. Such characteristics include typically such qualities as minimum ‘and maximum volumes, price of the end product, minimum and maximum API, maximum sulfur content, minimum fash point, maximum aromatics content, maximum freeze point, T90, cloud point, pour point, viscosity at 100 degrees . (ASTM D445), viscosity at 40 degrees C., vanadium content, and cetane number. Then, the appropriate feedstock to create the desired product is provided to the model. Characteristics of the Teedstock to be selected for fuel production include amount available, purchase price, API, sulfur content, aromatics, naphthalene content, smoke, vanadium content, ai point, cloud point, flash point, freeze point, pour point, viscosity at 100° C,, viscosity at 40° C,, distillation T10, Alisillation T50, distillation T90, and cetane number, ‘Then, the product requisements and raw materials data are inputted into the database either manually or by importation from another database in a known manner, Table IV illus- trates an exemplary entry table for cetane requirements for 4 finished product, Itis clearly seen that the root mean square etror (RMSE) ‘of the inventive method is significantly below that of any of the prior art methods for predicting the ectane number of ‘diese! fuel with a cetane improver therein, In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, there are at least § component properties which are collected from Model Mel ass 87 aoa 450 au 412 7 4s 47 te aa aS 455450 S12, sos) ho 407 39 6 fos 33 wa ise aa 4S fea a8 509 $09. 410 406 fee 485 rae 6s US 6,611,735 BL 15 16 TABLEIV TABLE V Gan Susan Ing i or Dil Ful Pr come s Die pe sexo) CALCULATIONS Dats Reid ed esate ‘Method 1 750, T90, AnPt, Vise., Cloud a Maho 2 ‘S019, Cloud, Ain pace Method» 150, Tin, Ton, Coed Bot pcedin Dist Rend Tol Miho 4 ‘80, Aa, Vike 10 Component "Die pool” Rew'$ Resi oot Rey Reus Maho $ ‘0:7, 190 ASTNE Meta (186 ase One, ung of ness compres LOO Vigia dsite 38000 wast Oo as. Depending on the data available, the appropriate method cb Som gaia anpe0 seag00_ N00 for calevating the required input ingredients is selected. 15 Methods 1-5 ate according to the present invention for RS : one Cin Tw, high wag of nepeive component calculating cctane quirements, the ASTM method D-976 according to the prior at I is notable that D-976 requires. Vigia dale 9s0 O73 0 owas ‘only two inputs, API gravity and 30. 120 998 2088 5000 stgon SIMS If additional requirements are desired, they may be input- 20 100-2508 ted via a similar spreadsheet table. Any other desired Twat Rex information, including processing information, costs, times, ‘volumes, etc, may be included. An additionally preferred Resa Comping Cae To 1 Case O28) ‘embodiment includes calculations for cold flow improver for aoa ‘oat diese fuel once the variables have been calculated uilizing. 25 Sen es ds sso98 the multiple regression analysis of the instant invention ng Pe senses ‘Once the product characteristics have been inputed, 2 computing device (prefeably 2 Pentium based PC running 2 fom of Windows or equivalent software) then may cal alate tbe required feedstock to manufacture the produc. ‘The ealouations may be run in evese, Le. to determine what may be produoed from the feedsiocK oa band Farbetmore, the instant invention allows fore “tuning” ofthe equations for particular refintcs, fl sone, go0- fraphicalvarances, et. wi tbe collection of addon data and verification through actual samples. Each of the variables may be adjusted by one of skill in the art having rege fortis disclose by regressive analyis or similar ‘The efficient and profitable operation of a large scale manufacturing facility is illustrated as follows. A target cetane number for fuel is selected for a particular application, ea 45, "The fuel may be made a mumber of ways, by mixing various componens, andr by aiding a cetane prover to the blend Turing to Table V hich follows, the following priciog information is assumed to be known (oot acual amounts): Low Sulfur Diesel market price $23,101 Residual Fuel Oil market price $1638)6b1 DIL3 market price $0275/pound [Nominal refinery diesel output: 50,000 barels per day ip) ‘Te method according tothe instant avention determines the precise amounts of components of the types of Virgin Distillate, Light Cycle Oil (LCO), and C&tane Improver to dd to teach the desired propery of 45 eviane number However, profit optimization can help select the more cco- somicl prvction rots, wea ordinarily one sich cote tight have been ignored. Case One is editions blend to fest in ie desired CN, and requires that a lage amount of CO be placed ilo the less profiable residual produc. Whereas, in Case Two, the inclusion of DII-3™ estane improver allows mote LCO to be incorporated info the Diesel Pool, and less LCO ino the less proftable Resid Pool. The sims saved are significant ss 4s ss 6s ‘The entie disclosuee of all applications, patents, available software, ASTM and other standards, and publications cited above and throughout this application are hereby ineorpo- rated by reference, ‘The preceding examples can be repeated with similar success by substituting the generically or specifically described compositions, reactants andior operating condi- tioas of this invention for those used in the preceding examples. From the foregoing description, one skilled in the art can easily ascertain the essential characteristics ofthis invention and, without departing from the spirit and seope thereof, can ‘make various changes and modifications of the invention to adapt it fo various usages and conditions. ‘While the invention has been described in connection with the preferred embodiment, it should be understood readily that the present invention is not limited to the disclosed embodiment. Rather, the present invention is intended to cover various equivalent arrangements and is only limited by the claims which follow. Having described the invention as above, we claim: 1. A method of accurately predicting a characteristic of a product to be prepared by a processing plant, comprising identifying an incoming material, suid material having at Teast one measured property, selecting. at least one product to be prepared from said incoming material by said processing plant, said prod- uct having at least one desired characteristic, selecting a process to be used by the processing plant to proxtuce the produc, suid process having an effect upon the characteristic of the product, calculating a predicted value of the el product predictive equation is generated by regressive analysi ‘of an accumulation of data relating the measured prop- cerly of the incoming material, the process, and the ‘characteristic of the product; ‘wherein the incoming material is a petroleum feedstock, the product is diesel fuel, the process is. admixing US 6,611,735 BL 17 ccetane improver, and the characteristic of the product is ceetane number, and the measured property includes at least APL “TSO and at least two additional properties selected from the group consisting of T10, 190, aniline point, viscosity, cloud point, and aromatics content. 2.A method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the measured property is selected from the group consisting of bydrocar- bon type, carbon content, hydrogen content, sulfur content, nitrogen “content, API. gravity, distillation range, cetane ‘number, aniline point, heat content, kinematic viscosity, ‘cloud point, pour point, and flash point. 3. Amethiod as claimed in claim 1, wherein the at least wo additional properties are T90, aniline point, viscosity, and cloud point. 4, Amethod as claimed in claim 1, wherein te atleast two additional properties are T90, cloud point, and aromatics ‘content ‘5. Amethod as claimed in claim 1, wherein the atleast two additional properties are T10, 190, and cloud point. 66. Amethiod as claimed in claim 1, wherein the at least wo additional properties are viscosity, and aniline point. 7. Amethod as claimed in claim 1, wherein te atleast two additional properties are T10 and T90. 8. A method as claimed in claim 3, wherein the predictive ‘equation is a set of non-linear equations comprising: (CN 0.07 T3040 SSANPT-1122V1SC1040.4957% 1D976H0.1836xCLOUDHSI.ST ‘eN1000~009378,T1N40.27SBANPT-9S12xV1SCHD40 580 'D976+0.206DxCLOUDes0.16 ‘CN2S0~-0.05881471040.252}4ANPT-.5800%V1SCH0¥0 6700 1D976¥0.19494CL.OUDH2. 38 ‘€NS010=-0,5000,T1D40 A8M4ANPT-=1 183 VISCHDA0 46D 97640. 169SACLOUDHL SD EN 7S0~-0)7802xT1Da0 36244ANPT=1 07AVISCAD4D 64955 'D97640.137IxCLOUD$35.77 “CN10100~-0.05971T10¥0.4199%ANPT=1257HVISCHD¥0 60854 197640. 1086xC1OUD¥3875 wherein (CN is cetane number of the product at the noted concen= tration of cetane improver of from 0 to 10,000 ppmy, and intermediate values are interpolated between points, ‘TIO is the temperature at which 10% of the product boils off, ANPT is the aniline point of the product, VISC40 is the viscosity ofthe produet at 40° C. according 1 ASTM D445, D976 is the cetane index of the product according to ASTM D976, and CLOUD is the cloud point of the product. ‘9. A method as claimed in claim 4, wherein the predictive ‘equation is a set of non-linear equations comprising: (CNT. 790WS0-1950224190-28846SPOR-0.11994H1- "AAROMs0.2187sCLOUD2578 ‘eN10N0-0.18924S0-0 1062 T90-256,1nSPGR-0.11234FT- "AAROM024194CL OUD2598 (€N2S0040.1861HS0-0.10724190-264.HSPGR-O.22134E "AAROM023104CLOUD260) ‘€Nstn00.49284S0-0.1057K190-267 SPGR-O.2480RF as os ss 0 4s 6s 18, AAROMs0.21134CLOUDS EN 750000 2079500, "AAROMs1.1829xCLOt {150-283 SPOR-0.17008H- 292.1 {en 0000~0.2164TS-1, 086374 90-285 SHSPGR-0.19314F "AAROMSI.1575CLOUD281.7 wherein CN is cetane number of the product at the noted concen- tration of cetane improver of from 0 t0 10,000 ppm, and intermediate values are interpolated between points, ‘TSO isthe temperature at which 50% of the product boils off, "700 isthe temperature at which 90% of the product boils off, SPGR is the specific (API) gravity of the product, FIAAROM js the aromatics content of the product according to ASTM D 1319, and CLOUD is the cloud point of the product. 10. A method as claimed in claim 8, wherein the predic- tive equation is a set of non-linear equations comprising (eN60 528611 10601325450-0.0730C190-319.24SPGRE hi98xCLOUD295.1 {0222¢CLOUD+313.6 Lenasonwo.nssa5eT 1060, 12085eCLOUD ISIS SHATS0-O08A1TDO-S48.S PORE {ENSt%0.91 THe 1D, 128DKFS0-0.6947190-371-KSPGRE has KCLOUD3E49 (eN1500=0 1202x7100. 1056xS0-0.04557HP0-A088HSPGRY TiadaxCLOUDY3689 ‘en 1n00W0.1377T106.05525.T50-09527 4419-422 SPORE AIS®CLOUDKSTSS wherein (CN is cetane number of the product at the noted concen- ‘ration of cetane improver of from 0 to 10,000 ppm, and intermediate values are interpolated between points, ‘TIO isthe temperature at which 10% of the product boils off, ‘TSO isthe temperature at which 50% of the product boils off, ‘TOO isthe temperature at which 90% of the product boils off, SPGR is the specific gravity of the product, and CLOUD is the cloud point of the product. ILA method as claimed in claim 6, wherein the predictive ‘equation is a set of non-linear equations comprising: (eNO 281 xANT-1.0304V1SC4040 651940976 LCN ™0.24034ANFF-.900VISCHN40 7946x0976 (eN2501«0.217 KANPF-117SxV1SCH040.9147KD76 {eNS00NM0.28324ANFT SKVISCHONO 9355075 [ENS01m0 SONHANPT-13224V1SC4040 93460076 (EN 10000 A5344ANFT-1.255xV1SCA040 055%D975 wherein US 6,611,735 BL 19 (CN is cetane aumber of the product at the noted concen- tration of cetane improver of from 0 to 10,000 ppm, and intermediate values are interpolated between points, ANPT is the aniline point of the product, VISC40 is the viscosity ofthe product at 40° C. according to ASTM D445, and 1976 is the cetane index of the product according. to ASTM D976, 12. A method as claimed in claim 7, wherein the predic- tive equation is a set of non-linear equations comprising: ‘eNm05689, 71060 00045 TSOXTBO-10NSHDAC TI} S26ixTQSPGRN0 263. T90SPGR-68 4) ‘en t01g=-044334 1040 canes TSOxTON-IL002215K(N+ Th42s4x11QSPGRN S364 1SSPGR-€153 ‘cars0=-0.47334F 1090.000466¢TS0eT9N0.001226T17+ ThS¥STOSPORN $20 T90SPOR-73 54 ‘CNsig=-0 58234 1040.00059>¢TSOeTIN—.001131KCT99)%+ 115736

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