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  • Aud and Inr

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    lukskywaker
    9 tayangan2 halaman
    The document analyzes the relationship between the Australian dollar and the Indian rupee. Regression analysis shows the relationship has strengthened over time, with the R-squared value increasing from 32% between 2000-2011 to 47% between 2008-2011 and 80% between 2009-2011. A chart confirms the increasing similarity in movements over the years. The document then presents two scenarios for how the Australian dollar may move in the near future and what effect this could have on the dollar-rupee exchange rate, ranging from a potential appreciation to 44.50 under a bullish scenario to a continued appreciation towards 46.50-47 under a bearish scenario for the Australian dollar.

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    AUD_AND_INR

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    The document analyzes the relationship between the Australian dollar and the Indian rupee. Regression analysis shows the relationship has strengthened over time, with the R-squared value increasing from 32% between 2000-2011 to 47% between 2008-2011 and 80% between 2009-2011. A chart confirms the increasing similarity in movements over the years. The document then presents two scenarios for how the Australian dollar may move in the near future and what effect this could have on the dollar-rupee exchange rate, ranging from a potential appreciation to 44.50 under a bullish scenario to a continued appreciation towards 46.50-47 under a bearish scenario for the Australian dollar.

    Hak Cipta:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Unduh sebagai PDF, TXT atau baca online dari Scribd
    Tandai sebagai konten tidak pantas
    9 tayangan2 halaman

    Aud and Inr

    Diunggah oleh

    lukskywaker
    The document analyzes the relationship between the Australian dollar and the Indian rupee. Regression analysis shows the relationship has strengthened over time, with the R-squared value increasing from 32% between 2000-2011 to 47% between 2008-2011 and 80% between 2009-2011. A chart confirms the increasing similarity in movements over the years. The document then presents two scenarios for how the Australian dollar may move in the near future and what effect this could have on the dollar-rupee exchange rate, ranging from a potential appreciation to 44.50 under a bullish scenario to a continued appreciation towards 46.50-47 under a bearish scenario for the Australian dollar.

    Hak Cipta:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Unduh sebagai PDF, TXT atau baca online dari Scribd
    Tandai sebagai konten tidak pantas
    dari 2

    Is Aussie dollar and Dollar Rupee inter-related?

    I ran a simple regression between Aussie dollar and dollar-Rupee on average daily closing prices over various time
    periods.

    Over the period between 2000-2011:

    R-squared or co-efficient of determination or in other words, how much movement in the dollar-rupee is explained by
    the movement in Aussie Dollar = 32%.

    Over the period between 2008-2011:

    R-squared= 47%.

    Over the period between 2009-2011:

    R-squared = 80%.

    There relationship between Aussie and Dollar-Rupee has become a lot stronger over the years. This can seen from
    the chart below.

    Australian dollar (colored bars-RHS) and Dollar-Rupee (line chart-LHS).

    Similarity in movement is confirmed by the chart.


    Australian-Dollar – Tale of two possibilities.

    Scenario 1: A bullish possibility, one final leg up is left before Aussie dollar tops out and the large decline unfolds.

    Scenario 2: A bearish possibility, the unfolding wave is the first leg of the bearish move and any bounce from 0.98-
    0.99 towards 1.00 would be sold into for a deeper decline towards 0.94-0.95 and even below that.

    Conclusion: Aussie (0.9890) is trading close to 0.97-0.98 support region; hence one can give the bull trend a benefit
    of doubt. However, if 0.97 falls this week, scenario 2 would become the dominant.

    As per regression relationship if Aussie were to travel all the way up to 1.02-1.03 under the former scenario, then
    USD-INR can appreciate towards 44.50, before resuming its upwards move later in the year. However, if the scenario
    two unfolds then Dollar-Rupee can continue on its appreciation and head towards 46.50-47.

    Anindya Banerjee.

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