ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS

Consequence means effect or result of a specific event.

Accident Consequence Analysis is an analysis of the expected effects of an accident, independent

of frequency and probability.

Mostly this is carried out after the completion of Risk Assessment to predict the consequences i.e.
severity of the effects due to the assumed worst or maximum credible accident scenarios.

With accident consequence analysis, the Vulnerability Analysis may be carried out of the persons,
property and environment adversely affected.

Computer software is useful in carrying out consequence analysis and vulnerability analysis.

In such type of analysis, determination of following things is important –

1. Type of substance being released e.g. gas, liquid or liquid with vapour etc.

2. Type of release i.e. instantaneous, continuous, intermittent etc.

3. Leak rate or outflow volume and rate of evaporation in case of liquid pool

4. Dispersion calculation of the released mass. Parameters of atmospheric conditions are

considered e.g. wind speed, weather condition (stability class) cloudiness, terrain
conditions and sinking mechanism and absorption (influence of tree, houses etc. as
obstruction of toxic gases.)

5. Damage distances i.e. damaging concentration or effect of fire or explosion at different

distances in the direction of wind or other showing these distances and effects.

6. Severity of the effect i.e. vulnerability in terms of possible deaths, injuries, destruction of
building or damage to environment. Use of probit equation.

7. Plotting of ‘risk counters’ on the area map of place of release and vicinity. Counters should
indicate low, medium and high risk areas.