2.4K tayangan

Diunggah oleh Navjot Bindra

Anda di halaman 1dari 27

Chapter 5

Scheduling the Project

This chapter covers the topic of scheduling, probably the most extensively covered

subject dealing with project management. In addition to the usual PERT and CPM

networks, Gantt charts, etc., the subject of project uncertainty and risk management is

also discussed. The use of computer simulation to generate the approximate distribution

of project completion times is also discussed. Appendix C illustrates how Crystal Ball

can facilitate this analysis and be used to help better understand the implications of

schedule uncertainty.

Harvard: 9-613-021 Arrow Diagramming Exercise This 3-page case describes the

marketing campaign for a newly developed industrial hardware item. Over two-dozen

activities are noted and described. The case asks for the network diagram and critical

path.

(Project Management Journal, June 1999, p. 39-51). This article explains the procedures

developed by E. Goldratt in his Critical Chain approach to project management. Includes

a discussion of project and feeder buffers. Projects using the critical chain often report

significantly improved schedule, cost, and scope performance.

1. By definition, critical tasks are those tasks that if delayed will delay the completion of

the entire project. Therefore, these tasks should be managed more closely than non-

critical tasks. (In cases where the activity times are not known with certainty, the

tasks assumed to be critical at the beginning of the project may turn out not to be so

critical. Therefore, when task times are uncertain, all tasks that may reasonably delay

project completion must be carefully managed.)

2. Slack for a particular task is calculated by subtracting the earliest time the task can

start from the latest time the task can start or by subtracting the earliest time the task

can finish from the latest time the task can finish. Both calculations result in the same

slack and indicate a window in which the task can be started and finished without

delaying the entire project. The slack for a particular path is calculated by subtracting

51

5/Scheduling the Project

the path’s duration from the critical path’s duration and provides an indication of how

much the path can be delayed without delaying the completion of the project.

3. The earliest start time for an activity with two predecessors is equal to the later

earliest finish time of the two predecessors since both predecessors must be

completed for the task to begin. The latest finish time for an activity with two

successors is equal to the smaller latest start time of the two successors. If the larger

were used, then the preceding task would be permitted to finish after the latest start

time of the other successor.

4. No, all activities on the same non-critical path will not necessarily have the same

slack. This is because a particular activity may be on multiple paths. When an

activity is on more than one path, its slack is determined by the path with the least

amount of slack.

5. (As noted in Section 3.3, p.64, only immediate predecessors should be listed.)

a. Task 4 is the only immediate predecessor of task 5.

b. b) Task 2 and 3 are both immediate predecessors of task 4.

c. Task 5 is the immediate predecessor of the network finish (F).

6. When two activities have the same beginning and ending nodes they do not have a

unique identity in the project network. To solve this problem a new ending or starting

node is created for one of the activities to provide them with a unique identity. Then

a dummy activity or an activity with no duration is added to preserve the precedence

relationship.

7. Activities a and b are common to both paths and so do not need to be considered.

They must take the same impact on both paths. We did consider the partial paths d-g-

h and c-f.

8. If the promised delivery date for a project is greater than the time required to

complete the project, the project is said to have “project slack.” The amount of the

project slack is equal to the delivery time minus the project completion time.

9. A milestone could be added as a node to the AON network with zero duration.

10. False. Only the path claimed to be critical has a 95 percent chance of being

completed within 24 days. However, there may be one or more other paths that also

have a chance of taking longer than 24 days. If we are comfortable making the

assumption that the paths are independent of one another, then the probability the

project will be completed in 24 days or less can be calculated as the product of the

probabilities that each path is finished on or before day 24.

11. Because the Gantt chart is so easy to construct and read, people may use this tool with

little project management training and no technical knowledge about the project. One

52

5/Scheduling the Project

danger is drawing conclusions and making decisions based on the relatively simple

information displayed in the chart.

12. In cases where the activity times are not known with certainty, it is not possible to

determine the actual duration of each path. Therefore, it is not possible to determine

the critical path a priori. A path that is determined to be critical at the beginning of

the project based on expected activity durations may turn out not to be critical when

the project is half completed, perhaps as a result of the extra management attention

this path received. Indeed, it is common for the status of various paths to alternate

between being critical and not being critical as the project is completed. One danger

is that what is thought to be the critical path at the beginning of the project consumes

all of management’s attention only to have other paths fall behind and actually end up

delaying the project. The implication is that all paths that have the potential to delay

the project should be appropriately managed.

13. One way to use the network approach to prepare cost estimates would be to simply

estimate the cost of each task in the diagram and then sum these costs up. The time

estimates for the activities would likely be of significant help in estimating some of

the costs (particularly when human labor is required), and developing a cash flow

schedule.

14. It would be accurate to multiply the probabilities together when the paths are

independent of one another. In reality, the paths are not likely to be truly independent

because the paths have activities in common and common resources are shared across

paths. This latter point is particularly noteworthy as the network diagram only shows

technological precedence relationships and most often does not include information

about how the resources will be allocated. In many textbooks it is common to argue

that while true independence across the paths is rarely met, statistical independence is

achieved for large network diagrams with only a few violations. Of course, the

typical homework-type problems assigned are not large enough to justify the

independence assumption and the calculations required for realistically-sized network

diagrams would be far too tedious for most managers. That is why simulation is the

recommended approach in this text. However, it is important to note that

understanding the statistical approach facilitates understanding the simulation

approach.

15. No, the probability would not be more accurate if only the critical path was

considered unless this one path was much longer than all the other paths. In this case

the other paths would have virtually no chance of delaying the entire project. When

activity times are uncertain, properly calculating the probability that the project is

completed by a certain date requires considering the probability that all paths are

completed by the specified date. If the assumption of path independence is

reasonable then the product of the probability of each path completing by the

specified time can be calculated. Otherwise, simulation must be used.

53

5/Scheduling the Project

16. It is much more intuitive, easier to read, and may contain much more information

relevant to the project.

17. As noted in the chapter, the finish-to-start is the most commonly used linkage because

typically certain activities must be completed before other activities can start. The

start-to-start and finish-to-finish linkages are occasionally applicable. In these cases

certain activities must either be started or finished at the same time. The start-to-

finish linkage is probably used the least frequently.

18. On page 121 we begin this discussion the way project managers traditionally think

about these probabilities, i.e., an estimate for a such that the actual duration will be a

or less some specified percent of the time and an estimate for b such that the actual

duration will be b or larger less than some percent of the time. From this perspective

the ensuing discussion on page 122 is misleading since the probabilities are now

defined in terms of the areas between a and b. Thus, the 3.3 corresponding to 95

percent is based on a z-value of 1.645 which has 5 percent of the area in the upper

tail. Doubling this yields the 3.3 given in the text. Note, that the 3.3 is appropriately

used when management specifies an optimistic time estimate that has a 95 percent

chance of being achieved and a pessimistic time estimate that has only a 5 percent

chance of being exceeded (consistent with the discussion on page 121). The 2.6

corresponding to 90 percent is based on a z-value of 1.28 which has 10 percent of the

area in the upper tail. Doubling 1.28 yields the 2.6 given in the book. Again, the 2.6

is appropriately used when management specifies an optimistic time estimate that has

a 90 percent chance of being achieved and a pessimistic time estimate that has only a

10 percent chance of being exceeded.

If the discussion on page 122 is used the percent refers to the probability of the

project being completed within the range of the optimistic and pessimistic time

estimates. In the case of 95 percent estimates the appropriate value would provide

0.025 percent of the area in each tail. For the standard normal distribution this

corresponds to a z-value of 1.96. In other words, + 1.96 standard deviations (or 3.92

standard deviations) encompasses 95 percent of the area under the standard normal

curve. Likewise 3.29 standard deviations encompass 90 percent of the area under the

standard normal curve. Therefore, based on the discussion in the text, it is possible

that students will interpret these probabilities in two different ways. Given this, we

provide solutions for the end-of-chapter problems based on both interpretations.

19. When activity times are uncertain, we can only estimate how long they will actually

take. This means that we can only estimate the duration of the paths also. Since

these are only estimates, we will not know for certain which path actually took the

longest to complete until the project is complete.

20. There are actually two sets of trade-offs project managers must make. Most

commonly, we talk about making trade-offs between cost, schedule, and performance.

However, there is often another set of trade-offs the project manager must deal with.

54

5/Scheduling the Project

Namely, project managers must often make trade-offs between achieving the project

goals and the project team viability. Managing this second set of trade-offs is what is

meant by managing the project team while the first set of goals refers to managing the

project.

Solutions to Problems

21. The expected duration and variance of path a-b-c-f are 44.5 and 6.47, respectively.

The probability that this path will take longer than 50 weeks and therefore interfere

with the project completion can be calculated as follows:

50 − 44 .5

z= = 2.17

6.47

From Appendix A, the area in the upper tail for a z-value of 2.17 can be easily

calculated as 1.5%. This means there is a 98.5% chance that this path will not

interfere with the project being completed in 50 weeks.

The probability that both paths finish by time 50 (assuming the paths are reasonably

independent of one another) is .985 × .86 = 84.71%.

22. (Note to instructor. Refer to Discussion Question 18 for a discussion of two possible

interpretations for the probabilities associated with these types of problems). If we

assume that by 95% we mean that there is a 95% probability that the task will be

completed within the range defined by the optimistic and pessimistic range then (b-a)

should be divided by 3.92, rather than 3. The spreadsheet below provides the

solutions for the 99+ percent probability estimates, as well as the 95% estimates using

both the 3.92 and 3.3. Students may find the use of 3.92 more intuitive. Using this

factor, the probability that path a-b-d-g-h finishes on or before time 50 is 76.5%.

55

5/Scheduling the Project

A B C D E F G H

1 Opt. Norm. Pess. Var. Var. Var.

2 Activity a m b TE ((b-a)/6)2 ((b-a)/3.92)2 ((b-a)/3.3)2

3 a 8 10 16 10.67 1.78 4.16 5.88

4 b 11 12 14 12.17 0.25 0.59 0.83

5 c 7 12 19 12.33 4.00 9.37 13.22

6 d 6 6 6 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7 e 10 14 20 14.33 2.78 6.51 9.18

8 f 6 10 10 9.33 0.44 1.04 1.47

9 g 5 10 17 10.33 4.00 9.37 13.22

10 h 4 8 11 7.83 1.36 3.19 4.50

11

12 a-b-d-g-h 47.00 7.39 17.31 24.43

13 Std Dev 2.72 4.16 4.94

14 Prob 86.5% 76.5% 72.8%

15

16 Key Formulas

17 Cell E12 =E3+E4+E6+E9+E10 {copy to cells F12:H12}

18 Cell F13 =SQRT(F12) {copy to cells G13:H13}

19 Cell F 14 =NORMDIST(50,47,F13,TRUE) {copy to cells G14:H14}

23. (Note to instructor. Please refer to answer to Discussion Question 18.) If we assume

that by 90% we mean that there is a 90% probability that the task will be completed

with the range defined by the optimistic and pessimistic range then (b-a) should be

divided by 3.29, rather than 2.6. The spreadsheet below provides the solutions for the

99+ percent probability estimates, as well as the 90% estimates using both the 3.29

and 2.6. Students may find the use of 3.29 more intuitive. Using this factor, the

probability that path a-b-d-g-h finishes on or before time 50 is 72.7%.

A B C D E F G H

1 Opt. Norm. Pess. Var. Var. Var.

2 Activity a m b TE ((b-a)/6)2 ((b-a)/3.29)2 ((b-a)/2.6)2

3 a 8 10 16 10.67 1.78 5.91 9.47

4 b 11 12 14 12.17 0.25 0.83 1.33

5 c 7 12 19 12.33 4.00 13.30 21.30

6 d 6 6 6 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7 e 10 14 20 14.33 2.78 9.24 14.79

8 f 6 10 10 9.33 0.44 1.48 2.37

9 g 5 10 17 10.33 4.00 13.30 21.30

10 h 4 8 11 7.83 1.36 4.53 7.25

11

12 a-b-d-g-h 47.00 7.39 24.57 39.35

13 Std Dev 2.72 4.96 6.27

14 Prob 86.5% 72.7% 68.4%

15

16 Key Formulas

17 Cell E12 =E3+E4+E6+E9+E10 {copy to cells F12:H12}

18 Cell F13 =SQRT(F12) {copy to cells G13:H13}

19 Cell F 14 =NORMDIST(50,47,F13,TRUE) {copy to cells G14:H14}

56

5/Scheduling the Project

24. Note to instructor. In order to familiarize student with MSP’s “Help” facilities, we

have not given precise instructions in the text for changing MSP’s project calendars,

and for using MSP to find slack. If you wish to make these available, they follow:

The MSP calendar must be reset to a 7-day work week from its usual default of a 5-

day work week. To reset the MSP calendar, click “Tools,” and then click “Change

working time.” On the calendar you will note that Saturdays and Sundays for June

and July are shaded, i.e., nonworking time. Click on each of these days and then

click on “Working time.” Alternatively, you may highlight the entire months of June

and July and then click on “Working time.”

To show slack or float in MSP, click on “View,” then on “More views,” on “Detail

Gantt,” and “Apply.” Activity slack will be shown on the Gantt chart. Then click on

“View,” “Table,” and then “Schedule.” Drag the divider bar to the right, and you will

find “Total slack” and “Free slack” listed in the MSP table. (For these instructions to

take effect, project activity data must have been entered into MSP.)

d i

k

2 5 6

a h 9

e l

f j 8

1 b 3

7

g

c

One way to find the critical path is to identify all paths and calculate their

duration. As shown below, this project has six paths and path b-e-h-j-l is the

critical path with a duration of 40.

a-d-i-k 29 No

a-d-h-j-k 35 No

b-e-i-k 35 No

b-e-h-j-l 35 Yes

b-f-j-l 35 No

c-g-j-l 35 No

57

5/Scheduling the Project

Activity ES EF LS LF Slack

a 0 5 5 10 5

b 0 7 0 7 0

c 0 4 14 18 14

d 5 11 10 16 5

e 7 16 7 16 0

f 7 13 16 22 9

g 4 8 18 22 14

h 16 22 16 22 0

I 16 24 22 30 6

j 22 31 22 31 0

k 24 34 30 40 6

l 31 40 31 40 0

25.

a. The spreadsheet below was used to calculate the expected time and

variance for each activity.

b. The precedence diagram may be drawn as follows:

d

a f

c

g

b e

c. Path a-c-e-g has the longest expected duration of 19.5 weeks. (Note:

although this path has the longest expected duration, given the uncertainty

associated with the activity times, it may not be the path with the longest

actual duration.) Referring to column G in the spreadsheet below, we see

the probability of completing path a-c-e-g in 23 weeks or less is 96.3%.

58

5/Scheduling the Project

A B C D E F G H

1 Opt. Norm. Pess. Var. Var. Var.

2 Activity a m b TE ((b-a)/6)2 ((b-a)/3.92) 2 ((b-a)/3.3) 2

3 a 2 4 6 4.00 0.44 1.04 1.47

4 b 3 5 9 5.33 1.00 2.34 3.31

5 c 4 5 7 5.17 0.25 0.59 0.83

6 d 4 6 10 6.33 1.00 2.34 3.31

7 e 4 5 7 5.17 0.25 0.59 0.83

8 f 3 4 8 4.50 0.69 1.63 2.30

9 g 3 5 8 5.17 0.69 1.63 2.30

10

11 Expected Variance Variance Variance

12 Paths Duration Column F Column G Column H

13 a-d-f 14.83 2.14 5.01 7.07

14 a-c-e-g 19.50 1.64 3.84 5.42

15 b-e-g 15.67 1.94 4.56 6.43

16

17 Prob Path Fin by 23

18 a-d-f 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%

19 a-c-e-g 99.7% 96.3% 93.4%

20 b-e-g 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%

21

22 Prob Project Fin by 23 99.7% 96.3% 93.1%

23

24 Key Formulas:

25 Cell B13 =E3+E6+E8 {copy to cells C13:E13}

26 Cell B14 =E3+E5+E7+E9 {copy to cels C14:E14}

27 Cell B15 =E4+E7+E9 {copy to cells C15:E15}

28 Cell C18 =NORMDIST(23,$B13,SQRT(C13),TRUE) {copy to cells D18:E18 and C19:E20}

29 Cell C22 =PRODUCT(C18:C20) {copy to cells D22:E22}

d. Both of the other two paths have virtually a 100% chance of being

completed by week 23.

e. As shown in the spreadsheet, there is a 96.3% probability of completing

the project by week 23.

26.

a.

d

a i

e

b f j

g

c k

h

b. The expected time and variance for each activity are calculated in the

spreadsheet below.

59

5/Scheduling the Project

A B C D E F G H

1 Opt. Norm. Pess. Var. Var. Var.

2 Activity a m b TE ((b-a)/6)2 ((b-a)/3.29)2 ((b-a)/2.6)2

3 a 5 6 9 6.33 0.44 1.48 2.37

4 b 4 4 6 4.33 0.11 0.37 0.59

5 c 7 9 15 9.67 1.78 5.91 9.47

6 d 6 6 6 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7 e 4 5 7 5.17 0.25 0.83 1.33

8 f 12 16 17 15.50 0.69 2.31 3.70

9 g 8 12 20 12.67 4.00 13.30 21.30

10 h 7 9 16 9.83 2.25 7.48 11.98

11 i 10 14 18 14.00 1.78 5.91 9.47

12 j 6 12 20 12.33 5.44 18.11 28.99

13 k 7 9 14 9.50 1.36 4.53 7.25

14

15 Expected

16 Paths Duration Variance Variance Variance

17 a-d-i 26.33 2.22 7.39 11.83

18 b-e-i 23.50 2.14 7.11 11.39

19 b-f-j 32.17 6.25 20.79 33.28

20 c-g-j 34.67 11.22 37.32 59.76

21 c-h-k 29.00 5.39 17.92 28.70

22

23 Prob of =NORMDIST(38,$E20,SQRT(F20),TRUE)

24 Fin Path copy to cells G25:H25

25 c-g-j < 38 84.0% 70.7% 66.7%

26

27 90% Chance =NORMINV(0.9,$E20,SQRT(F20))

28 of Fin path copy to cells G29:H29

29 c-g-j 39.0 42.5 44.6

c. As shown in the spreadsheet above, this project has five paths. Path c-g-i

has the longest expected duration of 34.67 days although this path may

turn out not to be the critical path given the uncertainty associated with the

activity times.

d. As is calculated in the above spreadsheet, the probability that path c-g-i

will be completed in 38 days or less is 70.7% assuming that the 90% refers

to the probability that of each activity’s duration occurring between the

optimistic and pessimistic time estimate (see answer to Discussion

Question 18)

e. Assuming the paths are independent, for a 38 day delivery, paths a, d, i

and b, e, i values greater than 3.0 and with associated probabilities almost

1.0, they can be ignored. The probabilities for paths b, f, i and c, h, k are .

84 and .95 respectively. Given the probability that the nominal critical

path is .667 (see Q. 25d), the chance that all three paths will be completed

in 38 days is the product of their individual probabilities, .55.

f. Column F in the spreadsheet above corresponds to the 99+ percent level.

According to the calculations shown, there is an 84% chance that the

project will be completed in 38 days or less. The difference in

probabilities is caused by the fact that the estimation of a and b at the 99+

60

5/Scheduling the Project

lengths) that is much smaller than the range produced by estimations at the

90 percent level. The greater uncertainty reduces that chance that any path

will be completed in a specific time.

g. As shown in the spreadsheet, if the estimates were made at the 99+ percent

level, the project would have a 90 percent chance of being completed by

day 39. On the other hand, if the estimates were made at the 90 percent

level (and assuming that 90% refers to the area between a and b), the

project would have a 90 percent chance of being completed within 42.5

days.

27. A portion of the spreadsheet developed to simulate this project 150 times is shown

below. (Note: the variance was based on the interpretation that there was a 95%

chance that the task times would fall between a and b.)

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O

1 Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Path Path Path Project a-d-f a-c-e-g b-e-g Less than

2 a b c d e f g a-d-f a-c-e-g b-e-g Duration Crirical? Crirical? Crirical? 23 Weeks?

3 3.69 4.74 4.76 7.20 3.92 6.30 3.52 17.20 15.89 13.40 17.20 1 0 0 1

4 2.70 5.38 6.04 6.23 5.58 3.92 4.08 12.84 18.40 16.35 18.40 0 1 0 1

5 4.25 5.70 6.06 5.48 4.22 2.27 8.84 11.99 23.36 15.63 23.36 0 1 0 0

6 5.30 5.79 6.22 6.71 6.10 3.85 4.68 15.87 22.30 17.67 22.30 0 1 0 1

7 5.22 4.39 5.11 7.90 6.03 3.29 4.80 16.41 21.17 14.82 21.17 0 1 0 1

8 5.77 3.30 5.81 7.12 5.44 4.09 4.88 16.98 21.90 12.05 21.90 0 1 0 1

9 1.77 0.99 4.86 6.16 5.53 4.51 4.01 12.45 16.17 7.52 16.17 0 1 0 1

10 3.76 5.23 4.17 6.27 5.10 7.47 3.53 17.51 16.57 15.56 17.51 1 0 0 1

11 5.12 8.45 4.38 5.50 6.51 3.05 6.70 13.67 22.72 23.42 23.42 0 0 1 0

12 2.89 5.93 3.04 5.13 5.55 5.60 5.93 13.62 17.41 17.42 17.42 0 0 1 1

13 3.30 6.15 3.60 7.61 4.22 4.11 5.81 15.01 16.93 16.52 16.93 0 1 0 1

14 2.28 7.05 6.19 5.61 5.73 5.21 5.77 13.10 19.97 19.83 19.97 0 1 0 1

15 2.12 4.55 7.20 6.42 4.82 4.28 5.14 12.82 19.28 13.93 19.28 0 1 0 1

16 3.00 2.84 4.73 6.01 5.70 6.78 6.28 15.79 19.72 11.39 19.72 0 1 0 1

17 3.21 5.76 6.02 5.54 5.17 3.76 6.49 12.51 20.89 16.69 20.89 0 1 0 1

18 1.84 3.86 6.49 5.15 5.27 2.92 5.36 9.91 18.97 13.00 18.97 0 1 0 1

a. Path a-d-f had the longest duration in 3.3% of the replications. Similarly,

paths a-c-e-g and b-e-g had the longest durations in 81.3% and 15.3% of

the simulation replications, respectively. This clearly demonstrates the

difficulty in determining which path will be the critical path when activity

times are uncertain.

b. In 140 of the 150 replications (or in 93.3% of the replications) the project

was completed in 23 weeks or less. More formally, a histogram of the

project completion times could be easily developed as shown below. The

histogram appears to be approximately normally distributed and in fact

almost always passes the chi-squared goodness of fit test confirming that

the normal distribution provides a reasonable fit. Based on the

assumptions that the distribution of project completion times follows a

normal distribution, a mean project completion time of 19.97 weeks, and

standard deviation of 2.07, it can be easily calculated that the probability

of completing the project in 23 weeks or less is 92.86% which is quite

close to the empirical estimate of 93.3%.

61

5/Scheduling the Project

30

25

Frequency

20

15

10

5

0

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

e

or

M

Weeks

c. The 93.3% calculated here is slightly smaller than the 96.3% calculated in

Problem 25. The difference could be due to a sampling error, not

replicating the project enough times, or related to the assumption that the

activity times are normally distributed.

28. Since the times for activities are now known for activities a - d, updating the

simulation model simply requires replacing the randomly generated activity times for

these tasks with the known times. After entering these known times in columns A –

D, the revised probability of the project being completed by week 23 drops to 40%.

With the updated information, it is clear that path b-e-g will be the critical path.

Furthermore, task B’s actual duration was equal to its pessimistic time estimate. This

and the fact that tasks E and G are skewed to the right helps explain the decrease in

the probability of completing this project by week 23.

29. Note: If students use MSP to generate the AON network, and if they use a “Start”

node to begin the project, the Start node will be numbered “1.” This will increase by

one all the task numbers used in the problem statement. This is a common source of

confusion in reality as well as in the classroom.

There appear to be three activities that have no logical predecessors: Organize the

sales office, order stock from the manufacturer, and design the package. Organize the

office has three logical successors: select distributors, hire sales personnel, and select

advertising agency. Given these relationships, the other predecessor-successor

relationships are obvious.

Besides the need to manage the critical path carefully, there are only two managerial

problems or opportunities readily apparent. If resources could be made available to

62

5/Scheduling the Project

speed up organization of the sales office, project slack would result. Second,

selecting distributors is the only activity with low slack, 2 weeks. It bears watching.

Students may advise shifting resources from ordering stock from the manufacturer,

but once the purchase order has been made out and sent, the 13 week duration is

mostly waiting for delivery and there are no resource commitments involved.

A D

H

Start

B L

E I

C Finish

F J

G K

A B C D E F G

1 Task Description ES EF LS LF Slack

2 A Design package 0 2 5 7 5

3 B Order stock from manf. 0 13 4 17 4

4 C Org. sales office 0 6 0 6 0

5 D Set up packing facility 2 12 7 17 5

6 E Select distributors 6 15 8 17 2

7 F Hire sales personnel 6 10 6 10 0

8 G Select adv. agency 6 8 13 15 7

9 H Package initial stocks 13 19 17 23 4

10 I Sell to distributors 17 23 17 23 0

11 J Train sales personnel 10 17 10 17 0

12 K Plan adv. campaign 8 12 15 19 7

13 L Ship stock to distributors 23 29 23 29 0

14 M Conduct adv. campaign 12 22 19 29 7

63

5/Scheduling the Project

Springville Fire Department: The scheduling techniques mentioned are not mutually

exclusive, they are complementary and could be used together. PERT/CPM serves well

for planning and control. A Gantt chart would provide the ease of use, showing

durations, monitoring and on-going analysis. It might also be noted that CPM has

traditionally been favored by the construction industry. If only one technique must be

used, the modified PERT/CPM method, plotted on a time scale, would probably be the

best choice.

St. Dismas Assisted Living Facility Project Action Plan -- 3

Teaching Purpose: This installment of the St. Dismas case provides students with an

opportunity to further develop their skills in creating and using Gantt charts.

1. Draw a Gantt chart for the construction phase of the project. What is the completion

date if construction starts in March? What is the completion date of the project if

construction is started in November?

The following is the Gantt chart using MSP with a March 1, 2000 start date. This was

entered using the standard calendar defaults used by MSP of a Monday through

Friday 8 am to 5 pm workday with an hour off for lunch. The project completion date

is 7/30/01. (Please note: Start and finish milestones were added to the action plan for

ease in identifying the project’s start and finish dates.)

The following is the Gantt chart using MSP with a November 9, 1999 start date. This

start date was chosen because one of the constraints placed on the project was that it does

not begin until after the elections in November. Elections are usually held the first

Tuesday in the month of November. The case stated that one to two months was

estimated as needing to be added to the project schedule to allow for bad weather

conditions during the outside construction phases of the project (30 – 60 working days).

Days of work need to be added to the duration of each of the steps where work takes

place outside if it will happen during the winter months. The authors chose to add 30

days to each of the steps affected, step # 4 and #5. Step #6 is also work done outside, but

with the changes made to #4 and #5, step #6 will not start until the month of April.

Students may also change the calendars to let the workers off for the holidays of 1999 in

addition to those allowed for in 2000. The new ending date is May 18, 01. The project

will take a total of 30 additional days to complete. By adding 30 days of working time to

64

5/Scheduling the Project

each of the steps possibly affected by the weather, we only ended up adding 30 days total

to the project. This is a good discussion point of how the tasks affected by the increased

durations were not both on the critical path – only Step #4 extended the length of the

project. However, the student’s must keep in mind resource availability and the

increased cost of the project extension.

2. Why is it not possible to meet the scheduling constraints set by the Board? What is

your recommendation to handle the scheduling problem?

The case outlined two specific constraints that the Board placed on the project. The

first is that the project should not start until after the elections in November. The

second constraint is that the building be ready for occupancy by July of the following

year. The board wanted to target occupancy for the summer months.

The constraint of the building opening by July of the year following construction

beginning can not be met. No matter when the project begins it takes longer than one

year to complete. If the project begins immediately after the November 1999

elections it will be completed by May 18, 2001, if the project begins in March of

2000, as recommended by the construction manager it will be completed by July 30,

2001.

The constraint of construction beginning after the November elections can be met

with out any affect on the project. Meeting the July complete occupancy constraint is

possible only if the project is started in the winter months, this would add cost and

time to the project. It would also make the first units available in April, which is

before the targeted “summer” occupancy. Recall that the case stated that research

showed that most people shopped for assisted living facilities during the summer

months. A summer occupancy could be met by starting the project March 1, 2000,

without additional time or cost added to the original estimated project action plan. 45

units would be available for occupancy as early as June 25, 2001 (see step #9 of Gantt

chart with 3/1/00 start date).

65

5/Scheduling the Project

If students chose March 1, 2000, the entire project will be completed by July 31,

2001.

If students chose to start the project February 1, 2000, without any schedule changes

due to weather conditions, the project would be completed by 6/29/01. By using

MSP to change the project’s start date, students can easily choose various new start

dates and see the associated project end date.

4. Draw a Gantt Chart of the Marketing Plan and Implementation Phase of the Project.

Determine the start date of the Marketing Plan phase of the project in order to meet

your recommended facility ready for occupancy date?

Below is the Gantt chart for the steps in the Marketing Plan and Implementation

phase of the St. Dismas Assisted Living Project. The action steps were taken directly

from the Marketing plan developed and implemented section of the broad marketing

plan that was presented in the case.

To determine the project’s start date, you must first determine the start date of the

final step in the project action plan, “Implementation of the Marketing Plan”. This

must be started 5 months prior to the building being ready for occupancy so that

marketing has time to find residents to move in when the facility is available. The

marketing plan must be implemented based on the date that the first 45 units are

ready for residents. This date is June 25, 2001.

In order to determine the start date of the Implementation task, Step #7, one can

schedule this project backwards, we know the completion date, we do not know when

to start. Once we enter the projects completion date, MSP will determine when each

step of the project should take place. First enter all of the tasks names, precedences,

and their durations, as shown below:

Next, we must enter this project’s overall finish date, using the project

information dialog box, found in the “Project” menu on the tool bar.

66

5/Scheduling the Project

Enter an end date of 6/25/01, and select “Schedule from the project finish date”.

MSP will automatically determine each step’s start and end date to meet the

constraint you set. See below:

5. What is the next step the team members must take in order to complete their action

plans?

Each member of the project steering team needs to prepare final action plans,

including dates and resources. The team must also determine the predecessors from

outside their specific plan that link to their plans; for example if a step can not be

completed on the marketing phase of the project until Legal has completed a step in

their project plan, this must be noted on the action plan. This will enable a complete

overall integrated project action plan to be tied to the project budget, monitored and

controlled.

Nutristar

Teaching Purpose: The purpose of this case is to reinforce students’ skills in analyzing

projects with probabilistic time estimates. The case also provides students with an

opportunity to use spreadsheets to simulate the completion of the project and use the

results of the simulation to perform standard probability calculations.

1. Draw a network diagram for this project. Identify all the paths through the network

diagram.

Concept Development A

Plan Development

Define project scope B

Develop broad schedule C

Detailed cost estimates D

Develop staffing plan E

Design and Construction

Detailed engineering F

Facility construction G

Mobilization of construction H

Employees

Procurement of equipment I

Start-up and Turnover

Pre-startup inspection J

Recruiting and training K

67

5/Scheduling the Project

Centerlining M

Using these abbreviations and the information provided in the case, the following

AOA network diagram can be constructed.

B F

G

A C H I J K

D

L M

E

A, B, F,G, J, K, M

A, B, F,G, J, L, M

A, B, F, I, J, K, M

A, B, F, I, J, L, M

A, B, H,G, J, K, M

A, B, H,G, J, L, M

A, B, H, I, J, K, M

A, B, H, I, J, L, M

A, C, F,G, J, K, M

A, C, F,G, J, L, M

A, C, F, I, J, K, M

A, C, F, I, J, L, M

A, C, H,G, J, K, M

A, C, H,G, J, L, M

A, C, H, I, J, K, M

A, C, H, I, J, L, M

A, D, F,G, J, K, M

A, D, F,G, J, L, M

A, D, F, I, J, K, M

A, D, F, I, J, L, M

A, D, H,G, J, K, M

A, D, H,G, J, L, M

A, D, H, I, J, K, M

A, D, H, I, J, L, M

A, E, F,G, J, K, M

68

5/Scheduling the Project

A, E, F,G, J, L, M

A, E, F, I, J, K, M

A, E, F, I, J, L, M

A, E, H,G, J, K, M

A, E, H,G, J, L, M

A, E, H, I, J, K, M

A, E, H, I, J, L, M

2. Simulate the completion of this project 100 times assuming that activity times follow

a normal distribution. Estimate the mean and standard deviation of the project

completion time.

Prior to simulating the project, the mean and standard deviation for each activity must

be calculated. The spreadsheet shown below was developed to calculate these

parameters.

A B C D E F G

1 Optimistic Most Pessimistic Expected Standard

2 Activity Time Likley Time Time Variance Deviation

3 A 3 12 24 12.500 12.250 3.500

4 B 1 2 12 3.500 3.361 1.833

5 C 0.25 0.5 1 0.542 0.016 0.125

6 D 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.317 0.003 0.050

7 E 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.333 0.004 0.067

8 F 2 3 6 3.333 0.444 0.667

9 G 8 12 24 13.333 7.111 2.667

10 H 0.5 2 4 2.083 0.340 0.583

11 I 1 3 12 4.167 3.361 1.833

12 J 0.25 0.5 1 0.542 0.016 0.125

13 K 0.25 0.5 1 0.542 0.016 0.125

14 L 0 1 2 1.000 0.111 0.333

15 M 0 1 4 1.333 0.444 0.667

16

17 Key Formulas:

18 Cell E3: =(B3+(C3*4)+D3)/6 {copy to cells E4:E15}

19 Cell F3: =((D3-B3)/6)^2 {copy to cells F4:F15}

20 Cell G3 =SQRT(F3) {copy to cells G4:G15}

Next, the actual spreadsheet to simulate the completion of the project can be

developed. As demonstrated in the textbook, one approach is to dedicate a column to

each activity and then generate random activity times. Thus, in the spreadsheet

developed for this case, columns A - M were dedicated to activities A - M,

respectively. Then random numbers were generated for one activity at a time using

Excel’s random number generation capability. Using Excel’s Random Number

Generator only requires the specification of the type of random variable, its mean,

standard deviation, and the range for the random numbers. For example, to generate

the random activity times for Activity A, normal was specified for the type of

distribution, 12.5 for the mean, 3.5 for the standard deviation, and A3:A102 for the

output range. A snapshot of the spreadsheet developed is shown below.

69

5/Scheduling the Project

A B C D E

1 Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity

2 A B C D E

3 11.44919 4.702878 0.535049 0.356053 0.421074

4 8.028109 2.884924 0.694415 0.317893 0.489304

5 13.3549 3.234122 0.338099 0.291584 0.241881

6 16.96766 2.398613 0.739816 0.279394 0.303745

7 16.69423 3.21668 0.72604 0.293843 0.375742

After generating the random numbers, one column is dedicated to each path and

formulas are entered to calculate the path completion time based on the random

activity times generated. Again, a snapshot of the spreadsheet developed is shown

below. Entering the formulas is very straightforward since the letters used to label

the activities correspond directly to the column labels. To illustrate, the formula for

path A - B - F- G - J - K - M in row three is: =A3+B3+F3+G3+J3+K3+M3.

L M N O P

1 Activity Activity Path Path Path

2 L M ABFGJKM ABFGJLM ABFIJKM

3 0.441605 0.813718 38.36431331 38.30425754 26.17570742

4 0.974028 1.393954 28.75870589 28.94689201 20.95738934

5 1.115277 1.663059 33.8563155 34.61093393 28.58927129

6 1.13499 1.029766 31.93146016 32.6103619 29.56046329

7 0.502369 1.374516 36.15716899 36.18521673 31.82999899

To determine the time to complete the project, a final column was entered that

calculates the maximum path completion time for each row in the spreadsheet. Then,

summary statistics for this column were calculated. One simulation of 100

replications of the project yielded an average project completion time of 35.53

months with a standard deviation of 4.65 months. The maximum completion time

was 46.17 months and the minimum completion time was 24.85 months.

Excel’s histogram function can be used to quickly calculate the frequency distribution

of the project completion times. Since the shortest project completion time was just

under 25 months and the longest just over 46, and the standard deviation was close to

five, intervals of 0 - 25, 25 - 30, 30 - 35, 35 - 40, 40 - 45, and 45 - 50 were specified.

Once the frequency distribution was generated, Excel’s ChartWizard was used to

develop the actual histogram shown below. The distribution appears to be

approximately normally distributed.

70

5/Scheduling the Project

A B C D E F G H I J K L

1 Bin Frequency

2 25 1

3 30 15

4 35 30

5 40 38

6 45 14 40

7 50 2 35

8 More 0 30

9

25

10 Number of

11

20

Replications

12 15

13 10

14 5

15 0

16 25 30 35 40 45 50

17

18 Project Completion Time

19

20

21

4. Calculate the probability that the project can be completed within 30 months. What

is the probability that the project will take longer than 40 months? What is the

probability that the project will take between 30 and 40 months?

some specified time is to calculate the probability that all paths finish by the specified

time. With 32 paths to consider, just determining which paths should be considered

in the analysis is a tedious process. Further, this approach is based on the assumption

that the paths are independent of one another. In the present case, this assumption is

clearly violated due to the number of times several activities appear on alternate

paths. Another approach is to use the information generated from simulating the

completion of the project. Specifically, the results of the simulation indicated that the

average completion time of the project was 35.33 months with a standard deviation of

4.65 months. Based on this and assuming a normal distribution, the probability that

the project is completed within 30 months can be calculated as:

30 − 35.33

z= = −1.15

4.65

Thus, the probability of completing the project in 30 months or less (refer to normal

table in Appendix A) is 12.51 percent. In a similar fashion, the probability that the

project is not completed within 40 months can be calculated as:

40 − 35.33

z= = 1.00

4.65

Thus, the probability that the project is not completed within 40 months is 15.87

percent. The probability that the project is completed within 30 to 40 months is 71.62

(1.0 - .1251 - .1587) percent.

71

5/Scheduling the Project

Test Questions

estimate activity duration.

T 2. ___ AON and AOA networks can both be used to depict any project network.

T 3. ___ The shortest time to complete a network is equal to the duration of the longest

path through the network.

F 5. ___ To manage a project successfully, it is only necessary that the project manager

pay close attention to tasks on the critical path.

F 6. ___ A project manager should use probabilities to determine project durations only

on complex projects.

F 7. ___ If task duration estimates are carefully made, the project manager needs to only

examine the critical path when conducting a risk analysis.

T 8. ___The actual project duration will be known with certainty after the project is

completed.

F 10. ___ It is easiest to see lead and lag time in a project task on a PERT/CPM chart.

F 11. ___ A start-to-finish linkage is the most common way of linking to successive task.

T 12. ___ The formula for the expected time of an activity in a network assumes that the

optimistic, pessimistic and most likely time estimates have a Beta distribution.

T 13. ___ A project schedule is a project action plan converted into a timetable.

F 14. ___ A Gantt chart can not depict a critical path, only a PERT/CPM chart can.

T 15. ___ The difference between the LST and EST is called slack.

F 16. ___ A disadvantage of Gantt charts is that they are hard to draw.

F 17. ___ When discussing completion dates with senior management, a project manager

should include a 10% safety factor.

72

5/Scheduling the Project

F 20. ___ The difference between LST and LFT is called slack.

F 21. ___ The difference between EST and LFT is called slack.

T 22. ___ The difference between LFT and EFT is called slack.

T 23. ___ A big advantage of AON networks is that they are easier to draw.

a. a significant event in the project

b. a mark on a chart that depicts project progress

c. an activity on the critical path

d. an activity with an uncertain completion time

e. all of the above

a. the amount of time a non-critical task can be delayed without making the

project late.

b. the amount of time the critical path of a project can be delayed without

making the project late.

c. the amount of time an activity on the critical path can be delayed without

making the project late

d. the difference between how long the project would take if all tasks were

completed based on their pessimistic versus optimistic time estimates

e. none of the above

d 26. ___ For which purpose is simulation not used with regard to project scheduling:

a. to overcome the limitations associated with statistical techniques

used to develop probability of completion time estimates

b. to investigate the range of project completion times

c. investigate the distribution of project completion times

d. to verify the accuracy of the optimistic, pessimistic and most likely

time estimates

e. all of the above

a. Gantt chart

b. GERT chart

c. PERT/CPM chart

d. Work Breakdown Structure

e. Linear Responsibility Chart

73

5/Scheduling the Project

c 28. ___ PERT was originally used for what type of project?

a. construction

b. R&D

c. military

d. computer software development

e. advertising

b 29. ___ Which of the following is not an element of the Gantt chart?

a. actual progress

b. variance of the critical path

c. the current date

d. scheduled milestones

e. all of the above are elements.

a 30. ___ Which of the following is typically used as the best estimate of task duration?

a. expected time

b. pessimistic time

c. optimistic time

d. most likely time

e. all of the above

Short Answer

31. Define the term Critical Path.

The set of activities on a path from the project’s start to finish that, if delayed, will

delay the completion of the project.

The amount of time a non-critical activity can be delayed without delaying the

project.

33. What are some of the drawbacks of letting the project team and management know

how much slack is in the project?

The team will tend to delay the start of a task with slack, thinking they have plenty of

time to complete it—the student syndrome. Management will want the slack removed

and the project duration shortened.

A graphical depiction of a project action plan. It displays project activities as a bar

chart against a time scale.

35. What are the four methods of linking steps in a project using precedence

diagramming?

Finish to start, start to finish, start to start, finish to finish.

Problems

36. The following information has been compiled for a project that is about to begin.

74

5/Scheduling the Project

A 3 None

B 5 A

C 3 A

D 1 C

E 3 B

F 4 B, D

G 2 C

H 3 G, F

I 1 E, H

b. Determine the earliest and latest start times for each activity as well as the

earliest finish and latest finish times for each activity.

c. Calculate the slack for each activity.

d. Which activities are critical?

e. How long will it take to complete this project?

Solution:

a.

E

I

B

A F

H

C D

b. and c.

A B C D E F

1 Activity ES EF LS LF Slack

2 A 0 3 0 3 0

3 B 3 8 3 8 0

4 C 3 6 4 7 1

5 D 6 7 7 8 1

6 E 8 11 12 15 4

7 F 8 12 8 12 0

8 G 6 8 10 12 4

9 H 12 15 12 15 0

10 I 15 16 15 16 0

75

5/Scheduling the Project

37. The following information has been compiled for a project that is about to begin.

Assume the time estimates were made at the 99+ percent level.

Activity Activities Time Likely Time

A None 6 7 14

B None 8 10 12

C A 2 3 4

D A 6 7 8

E B, C 5 5.5 9

F B, C 5 7 9

G D, E 4 6 8

H F 2.5 3 3.5

b. What is the probability that the path with the longest expected duration

will be completed within 21 days?

c. Assuming the paths are independent, what is the probability that the

project will be completed within 21 days?

Solution

a.

D

A G

C E

B H

duration of 23 and a probability of being completed by time 21 of 11.5%.

c. The probabilities of the other four paths being completed by time 21 can

be calculated in a similar fashion. Based on the assumption that the paths

are independent, the probability that the project is completed by time 21

can be calculated by taking the product of these respective probabilities.

In this case, the probability that the entire project is completed by 21 days

76

5/Scheduling the Project

is .5 percent. In other words, there is only half a percent chance that all

five paths will be completed by time 21.

A B C D E F

1 Task Opt. Most Likely Pess. tE Variance

2 A 6 7 14 8 1.78

3 B 8 10 12 10 0.44

4 C 2 3 4 3 0.11

5 D 6 7 8 7 0.11

6 E 5 5.5 9 6 0.44

7 F 5 7 9 7 0.44

8 G 4 6 8 6 0.44

9 H 2.5 3 3.5 3 0.03

10

11 Prob of

12 Expected Path

13 Paths Duration Variance z Fin < 21

14 A-D-G 21 2.3 0.00 50.0%

15 A-C-E-G 23 2.8 -1.20 11.5%

16 A-C-F-H 21 2.4 0.00 50.0%

17 B-E-G 22 1.3 -0.87 19.3%

18 B-F-H 20 0.9 1.04 85.2%

19

20 Prob of

21 Proj < 21 0.5%

77

- Case StudyDiunggah olehTherese Chiu
- Ch04Diunggah olehKhairul Alom
- Ch02Diunggah olehAhmet Avcı
- Ch03 (1)Diunggah olehRomnick Sarmiento
- ch05Diunggah olehJayson Villena Malimata
- Solved ProblemsDiunggah olehOmar Ahmed Elkhalil
- ch01Diunggah olehRaquel Carmona
- ch08Diunggah olehRaquel Carmona
- St Dimas Project PresentationDiunggah olehKarrizzmatic
- Ch06 Summary MantelDiunggah olehalomelo
- Ch07 Summary MantelDiunggah olehalomelo
- St Dismas Assisted Living FacilityDiunggah olehsyafiq
- PJMT Dismas Assignment 3Diunggah olehTony Joseph
- Otis ElevatorDiunggah olehRishi Kothari
- ch07Diunggah olehJerold
- Ch08 Summary MantelDiunggah olehalomelo
- HRM Chap 6Diunggah olehTwinkle Shah
- Project Management in Practice 4th Edition Mantel Solution ManualDiunggah olehHouessou Houeto Hervé
- ch06Diunggah olehAG
- ch06Diunggah olehHomero Thompson
- Final Final FinalDiunggah olehHabbika Lopez
- ch06(4)Diunggah olehMylood Akary
- Project ManagementDiunggah olehsumitnits007_8936260
- 5 and 6Diunggah olehTony Joseph
- Handstar IncDiunggah olehhumtuma01
- Case Study PM St DismasDiunggah olehsyafiq
- Operations ResearchDiunggah olehKushal Bothra
- Case StudyDiunggah olehbhebheko06
- House Construction & Renovation Work _ WBS_Rev02Diunggah olehPraveen Jaiman

- Project ReportDiunggah olehdeepakdevchoudhary
- Project Management3386 bfDiunggah olehImtiaz Ahmad
- CPM & PERTDiunggah olehहुमागाँई शिशिर
- PMBOK SummaryDiunggah olehmankesh007
- Ex12 - Quantitative MethodsDiunggah olehSheena Pearl Alinsangan
- 2011-E2Diunggah olehRehman Muzaffar
- PHP And MySQL Project On Clinic Appointment SystemDiunggah olehFreeProjectz.com
- petmates_27dec2017Diunggah olehJayakrishna Bhasi
- Question Bank - for merge.docxDiunggah olehMani Krish
- ENGG 5205 Tutorial Activities and Cases 2016 V6.pdfDiunggah olehAnonymous o3Cz02
- Product Lifecycle Management - Driving the Next Generation of Lean ThinkingDiunggah olehRana Bak
- Project management Paper_131010 ver 01Diunggah olehAbubaker Sami Ali
- Project Management 4Diunggah olehrojeenabajracharya
- Full Report (Pbl1)Diunggah olehNuHar Misran
- AF200 maswali nondoDiunggah olehjoseph jerry
- 05_0_Scheduling2Diunggah olehbonhamled
- Construction EngineeringDiunggah olehDr Olayinka Okeola
- Lecture 10 QA .docxDiunggah olehAhmed Mohye
- 5 Phases PMPDiunggah olehSANJAY BHATTACHARYA
- PMP AnswersDiunggah olehRao Nanduri
- MBA (E) 2017-19 2nd Semester All Subjects Syllabus CopyDiunggah olehdahigaonkar
- P M P chapter 6Diunggah olehMondherBelaid
- New CPA Exam SyllabiDiunggah olehsweet_tweet101783
- PavanDiunggah olehSai Pavan
- Project ManagementDiunggah olehPZ
- Naboya Decision Making.potxDiunggah olehKathleen Tatierra Arambala
- pert1.pdfDiunggah olehLucky Parashar
- Project TimeDiunggah olehJuAn MigUel
- Pinto Pm2 Ism Ch11Diunggah olehjbshok
- IT01 New Study Questions AnswersDiunggah olehgssoft1