a CHAPTER 16 Navigational Error INTRODUCTION This chapter discusses navigational errors and how the navigator may recognise and deal with them, Tw this end, a broad understanding iy needed of the probability of errors as it alleety navigation, The mathematics af one- and wo-dimensional ervory are set out in an annex at the end uf the chapter, The quantification of particular errors in terms of distance, give certain Parameters, is set our in Appendix 7. Every time a position line is obtained from any source (celestial observation, visual bearing. radar range, radio fixing aid), the navigator must be able. te iudge its likely accuracy, and thus the accuracy uf the ship's position obtained from the intersection of evo or more af those position lines, Similarly, when determining the ship's DR position or the EP, an assessment of the likely jaccurtey of that position must be made, For example | Fig. 16-1). the ship's position has been fixed at al at 0600 by celestial wbservattions. The DR, B. and the EP, C, have been plotted on at O700, 's expheined in Chapter 8. AC0700, a single visual position line DE is obtained from the oil production platiorm #, What position should he chosen for 0700! Leeway Angle Tap a Se ° Nasa 8 Sy morte. Sag Set and Dritt & 6 Tig. (Ta) . . 0700156 CHAPTER 15- NAVIGATIONAL ERRORS The navigator may consider: “Thad a good set af stars at 0600, T have an accurate plotting table and bottom log so that the course steered and speed steamed through the water, «AB, between 0600 and 0700 are, F think, reliable, 1 tin tot quite so sure about my estimates of leeway, set and drilt, BE: But [know that Pam on the line DE av 0700. 1 will therefore take point G (where CG is perpendicular to DE and so Gis the nearest point 10 Gon the line DE} as any 0700 EP and work from that for my estimate of future positions, Consider, however. the likely errors in the observed position at 0600, in the DR and the EP at 0700, and in the plotted bearing of the wil production platform at 0700, The navigator needs to take into account the following 1. The error in the obserced position at O60), ‘The practised observer cat normally expect to obtain a celestial fix to within about 2 miles of the tue position on almost all occasions. But a poor horizon or refraction different from the normal can cause larger errors than this from time to time. 2, The error in the determination of the DR and the EP. Assuming the availability of a gyro-compass whose error has been recently checked and a reliable electromagnetic bottom log, residual errors in a gyro-compass and. its, associated transmission system could be of the order of # to 1° while the error in the electromagnetic log could be as much as 1% to 2%.* Then there is, the error inherent in the evaluation of leeway, tidal stream, current and surface drift. This depends as much on the quality of the available data as on the skill of the navigator in interpreting both those data and the effect of the weather, Tis likely, therefore, that the error in the EP could be as much as 3% to 5% of the distance run since the previous fix. Occasionally the error may be more than this. 3. Any residual but unknowen error in the gyro-compass together with small bul unpredictable fertors in the taking and plotting of the visual bearing at 0700. ‘These may be as much as, +1 These effects are shown in Fig. 16-2 A position circle, radius 2 miles, is drawn around A. to show the likely area covered by the observed position. By 0700, this position circle will have grown with time according (o the errors in the course steered, the distance steamed and errors in the estimation of leeway, and the set and rate of the tidal stream, current, ete, The bearing of the oil platform DE is plotted showing the =1° limits. The navigator can now reduce his position circle at 0700 to the area KLMN. ‘As the chosen point G also lies within the area K/MIN, this rather lengthy assessment of the position arca at 0700 may seem unnecessary. The plotted bearing of the production platform might, however, fall outside the navigator’s estimate of the likely position circle at 0700, e.g. PQ in Fig. 16-2. The navigator must then review the situation to establish what has gone wrong. Has the observed position been calculated correctly; has the DR heen plotted correctly: has the production platform been properly identified? Indifferent circumstances, the navigator may he passing close to shoals between him and + Vhs error assumes that the log hasbeen conprethy caleateNAVIG.VTION MEAGCURACIES Fig. 16-2, Plotting the position, 1tking likely ertors inte acenune he production plactorm and would be wise to choose an 0700 EP in the area ALMN which assumes the most ‘dangerous’ position, eg. Win Fig, l-2, perhaps calling for corrective action. MI practical navigational work frequently involves dealing with errors of some kind or other. ‘The navigator needs co be able to discriminate between an error caused by 3 mistake, an error in a particular piece of equipment which can ror ia the gyro-compass}, and an error be allowed for in some way (e.g. an caused at random, NAVIGATIONAL ACCURACIES there must always be a maximum acceptable The ultimate aim in any navigational system is limits I'ships are to be navigated satel limir to navigational accuracy to ensure that the ship remiains within predetermined acceptable sal Definitions The following definitions apply Accuracy. Accuracy may be expressed in a number of ways which are explained later, e.g. root mean square distance (dyyy.); one, two or thece sigma {La 28, 30): civrular error probable (CEP). Equally and more simply, it may. be expressed in terms of a percentage probability. The accuracy. limits of navigation position lines, fixes, ete. should be such that there is a. 95" probability that the actual position line or fix concerned is within the limit quoted Precision. Precision ielates to the refinement to which a value is stated, For example, a celestial position tine may be stated to the nearest 02 hut, beeause terrors in refraction, peryonal error ete. it may only be accurate ty £250 5% probability), Usually. there is little point in tibulating a quantity: to a greater precision than the accuraey required, but calcalat fractions should not be “ruunded off ta soon, otherwise a cumulative: error ns involving a number of may be introducedva CUXPTER 1s -NAUIGA TIONAL ERRORS, Absolute position. Che alsolure position of a ship is that which «letines its position on the Barth and is normally expressed in terms of butitude suse longitude, Where the higher ordery af aecursiey are required. it is newrssatts te state the reference dtm used Relative position. Lhe rclarive position vl a ship iy a aneans al express position with relorenee te fixed point ar ether ship. Le miay he determined he same navigation ther by direct measurement. ut by fiath ships si System at the same time, or by comparison of measured absolute positions helo} Repeatability, Repeatability iy the ability of the same ship or difterent ships tw return te at particular position te the same degree nf accuracy as the uviginal ship, using the same positional sensors TYPES OF ERROR There are three principal types of error: faults, systematic errors and random Faults Faults can be caused by any of the fullowing 1, A blunder on the navigator’s part 2. A malfunction in the equipment, ‘This may olten he di For example, a gyro may start a slow wander without setting off the alarm system and it may therefore be some time belore the fault is discovered 3. A breakdown in the equipment. This may be less serious. than a malfunction, on the grounds that no information is better than the wrong information I 10. Fecagnive Faults must be guarded against. A reliable cross-check against the particular source of information is always uselul. For example, radar may be used as check against the Decca Navigator and vice versa. ‘The DRVEP is an invaluable means of checking a position line from any souree. Regular checks on the accuracy of the gyro-compass. as described in Chapter 9 may well indicate whether an error has developed, as may comparison with other gyros or with the magnetic compass. ‘The navigator may keep a log of readings Irom any particular radio navigational aid to ensure that the pattern of readings is consistent. Any departure from this consistent pattern may well indicate some kind of malfunction or other fault. For example, suppose the pasition line readings from a radio fixing aid at equal time intervals are: 4.5, 5.2.3.8, 7.5.7. 7.8. 8.5. It should be immediately apparent that the 7.5 reading is an incorrect value as itis inconsistent with all the others, Blunders Blunder is the werm used to describe at mistake, Far example, the navigator may forget to apply the error in the compass or the deck watch. ar he miay apply it in the wrong direction, Blunders are not easily revealed. Procedures need to be developed whieh telp to eliminate them. ‘The navigational work should always he erosser es heaTYPES OF ERROR 1 Desketoy computers and hand-held programmable calealators may he Programmed with routine tasks such ay aytronemical sight reductions. tidal sulcubtions, the calewlation of rhuinibeline and greatrirche courses, ete The taterpolation involved when using tables is at frequent cause of error inn ton —this may be aveided by the use of suitable programs, Systematic errors \ wovtemutic enor is one that follows some regular pattern, by which means that ertir may he predicted. Once an error ean be predicted, itcan he eliminated sve allowed fi The simplest espe af syste the error resulting Hrom any: 1 compass and the fore-and-alt line of the ship. Other examples of systematic error ate errors inthe gyro-compassy the desiation of the magnetic compass, the fixed error in the Decea radio id. Errors in the gyro-compass may be reduced or eliminated clecteonically. by ie error is one whieh is constant, lor example sitlignment between che lubber's line of the for course, speed and latinede. The deviation making the necessary allowan in the “magnetic compass may be reduced by placing small magnets and saltiron correerors close to the compass and the residual deviation tabulated in a deviation table. Fixed errors for Decca may be found liom the Decor Navigator Marine Data Sheets (NP 316) Systematic errors change so slowly with time that they may be measured and corrected. It may well he, however, that certain errors, while laitly constant over a matter of hours, may then hegin to change. Such errors may be termed semi-sistematic. Examples of such errors might be: any residual error in the gyto-compass after applying the appropriate corrections: changes in dip and refraction of celestial bodies observed at low altitudes, caused by impredictable Changes in temperature and pressure In practice semi-systematic errors. a errors’ (sve below} of necessity, treated as random Random errors Other errors change so rapidly with time that they cannot be predicted. There Are many causes of such errors. The taking and plotting of a visual bearing is subject to small unpredictable errors. Short-term variations in the ionosphere aifect radio aid readings. A value extracted from a table is only accurate to within the limits set by the table itself, For example, if'a table is expressed to nly one decimal point, an extracted value of 3,4 may lie anywhere between 3.35 and 3.45, Such errors are known as random errs and are governed by the laws of Probability. This means that, whereas the sign and magnitude of any particular = Whilst the tind eran oe pscen relatively close pasts. Hw. the ety will expres heh cartes with tine, the rate a «Bunge hing dependent on {rs impossible tw dea a precive dividing line hetwren random al semissstematie errr Similar i is unpensile ty ease pevise. dividing ewan sestematic eerurs, Ths is eeause the dilltene is wida with the te scale tite posible: for esatmple, toe sy sanknen ahtessampas fo he a ratnbant at a ssveinatie cenCHAPTER 1) NAVIGATION AL ERRORS,PYPESOF ERROR 1 be predicted, the averaging of a number at readings can elp to determine the maynitude of that error Composite errors Faults, systematic (and semi-systematics errors and random errors may exist ian embination. in which ease the error distribution may look like that shown in Fig, 1-1. The bell-shaped pattern of random errors is explained in the annex w this chapter Sestematic errors shitt the random distribution carve to the left or right of the vorreet value. A fault can be of any size, and theretire the distribition may be represented by a straight line, so adding a skirt to the normal distribution {i navigation, itis always possible for all these errors to exist in combination Faults, systematic and semi-yystematic errors can, however, be reduced, climmated or allowed for, leaving in many cases only the random error to be dealt with, Random errors are considered as being in one or wo dimensions these are discussed below Fig. I6- Combined errors "the navigator may not have the time nor the information sunalyse the navure of the errors experienced, nor to calculate them. If, however he understands these concepts, he is better equipped to determine his Position Probability Area (PPA) and his Most Probable Position (MPP). For example hie should look upon his Estimated Position (EP) not so much as a position but rather asa 95% probability circle with a radius appropriate to the situation and expanding with time, Ihe considers his estimate of speed along the track to be less reliable than his estimate of the ground track itsell, he may decide. to change his Position Prabability Area frony a circle to an ellipse, the longer axis being slong the track In pr Random errors in one dimension Consider a ship making good an actual ground track of 090° (Fig, I4i-3). Her position is fixed tt carious times by some navigational aid. Each tix includes random errors whieh cause it to fall either nortiy or youth af the actual trackwe CHAPTER 1 NAVIGATIONAL ERRORS, Phe error aeross the track only ccrossetrack error) is considered. exrars ty the uth as =e north of track being takeu as tee ane those to the Phe cross-track error is shawn at five equally spaced points along the track Phe mean (cross-track | errar walue iy non as the bias, In Fig. Wind itis the ditlerenee ound track and the act in any given set of readings is discussed helo Bias, however, is insufficient on ity own wy explain the nature of the Phe spread af those errors also needs to be considered, The spread al errors is ubtained by squaring each crossetrack errur, taking the average, and then taking the square root, thus obtaining the soot mean square (RMS) enor. In Fig Phis mean error valae is ku henween the mean apparent round track. Elie bias 16-4 Foirees N = 62m RMS error This figure is known as the RMS error about the true value Iris possible to calculate the RMS error about any other value but the only fone of interest is that about the mean error value, This is referred to as the (linear) standard deviation (SD) linear standard = RMS error about oe N In practice, however, to determine the linear standard deviation accurately, the errors in a large number of readings are required, as explained in the anne. to this chapter, Many one-dimensional random navigational errors show a specilie belle shaped pattern (Fig, 16-4) known as anormal distribution. “The normal distribution of errors is explained and illustrated in the annex (pp.A80-1)}. ‘The ell-shape of this pattern is fixed by the unbiased estimate of the linear standard deviation, which is often roterted to as the une sigma (a) value. as explained in the annex. 11 is possible to say what percentage of errars ‘will lie within any multiple of this standard deviation, and examples of these are set our in the annes (p.1B1TYPESOF ERROR 8 Tu navigation, 95% probability is the value normally used to express the securtey of one-dimensional position lines. This value may be conidered fir 2a} or twiew the mioxt practical purposes as being equivalent to neu sixtnae sandird deviation (28D). ‘Thus. if.a large mumber of random measuremen are made whieh are of a normal distribution, then approximately 5% of these measurements may be expected to fall within the ewe sigma 2a} value or osiew the linear standard deviation about the mean value, There isa 1 in 20 chanee 13% | that the position fine obtained could lie outside this 2o limit, For example, in Fig. 16-2 the navigator should now be able to recognise that There is 95% probability that the plotted hearing of the vil production platform at 0700 is accurate to within 1°, taking into account any unknown residual error in the gyro-compass and any small errors in obseeving and plotting. ‘There is a | in 20 (or 5%) chance that the position line might lie outside this limi, When several independent random errors are considered in conjunction, their individual standard deviations may be combined as explained. in. the annex (p81) oz. af tot toft... tae 16.2 where @). 0 0 ete. are the individual standard deviations and @ the composite sandard deviation. For example, ifa ship is running a line of bearing when the accuracy of fixing is +50 metres, assuming a 95% |2a) probability hut, due to vagaries in course keeping is only maintaining her required track to an accuracy of £20 metres (95% probability), the combined effect of these two errors will be to produce an overall 2¢ value of: 2o= 508 +20? = 53.85 m ‘The chances of the total error being as much as 70 m, which would be the ase if both errors had the same sign and maximum value at the same instant, would only be 1/20 x 1/20 or I chance in 400. The overall error will lie within the limit of + 54 metres on 95% of occasions. It should never be assumed that, when two random errors are involved, they must necessarily have the same sign at any particular moment [several small errors are combined with one which is large by comparison, the small errors can often be disregarded as having little or no. practical significance. For example (we alo p.B4), the accuracy of a gyro’ hearing allowing for any random gyro error may be 1°, assuming a 95% prohability and normal distribution. However, the gyro bearing can only be read to the ne. rest &. ie. the maximum rounding-olf error is +4. The gyro bearing itself can be plotted to an accuracy of £4°. What is the likely total 95% error? The standard deviations of these three values are as follows (the full details nnex, p. #84): are set out in the Gyro bearing 0s a= P ay = 05) Rounding-olf error 0°15 approx. Plotting error VETS approx, 10s = 05 x 09.25) 00.6 0°25)wn CHAPTER 1h NAVIGATIONAL ERRORS, somnbined seandard deviation @= W051 £0.30 + we The random gyro error of 1° is only inereased by a negligible sanount shen the taking practical purposes. the teta J the plotting of the bearing are also considered, For mast 99% errar is still only 1° Bias Ia series uf readings is taken. a bias in these readings about the true value may be revealed. ‘This bias can accur for various reasons. The number of readings may’ be small, as in Fig, 16-3. The numberof readings may be large but be taken over a relatively short time scale and may include an as yet unrevealed systematic or semiesystematic ertor, This systematic or seminsystematic error, which may well be constant over the time scale concerned, will he revealed sts bias, that is, a difference between the mean value of the readings and their true value. [f the errors are truly random, and if an infinite number of abservations are made, then mean and true values of the readings will cvincide, that is, there will be no bias. In practice, however, itis not possible to take an infinite number ol readings. ‘The navigator must always remember, therefore, that his set of readings, which appears random, may in fact be biased one side or the other of the true value. \ bias will be present in many readings from radio navigation and inertial navigation systems, Moreover, this hias will not be constant but will change with time, the rate of change of the bias depending on the type of navigational aid. For example, a 24 hour related bias will be experienced with the Ship Inertial Navigation System (SINS), Omega and also Decca, A more rapidly changing bias will also be experienced with Decca, the bias being assoclated with the course and speed of the ship across the Decca chain, Random errors in two dimensions Radial error Although the navigator is interested in the likely error in any one position line, he is also concerned with the likely error in his fix. Fig, 16-5 shows a situation where a ship stopped in position B has obtained a series of fixes using some navigational aid. Position A represents the mean of these fixes, the difference between the individual fix and being shown as 1). rity andr he total error between positions A and B may be regarded as being made up of one-dimensional distributions in two mutually perpendicular directions, e.g, N-S and E-W, through the mean position 4. Thus, there is a component of bias in each of these directions, » and ¥, and these determine the true position B It there is no bias, then and B coincide A measure of the spread of these errors is tind by calculating the radial err 4g) about the mean or true position, Radial error is known as the root mewn square re distance (dy) abwut the true or mean value, The we sadial standard RMS) error at root mean sy radial error about the mean position iy often relerred tas ¢TYPESOF ERROR 65 Radial Eroe about the Mean Position Radial Error about the True Fig. 16-5. Errors in deviation® (radial SD): radial error about the mean position (Idem) Vv 16.3 where nis the total number of individual errors, In Fig. 16-5 the radial error is shown for five values of r (7, to 73). Also: radial error abot radial error about j! ) the mean position the true position 16.4 = (hias)* + ( For example, suppose the errors around the mean position 4 are as follows n= AO mp ry = Le mz, = 30 ms ry = 18 ms 7; = 23m, The bias (AB) is 19 m, From formula (16.3): radial error about the mean position (dyno) From formula (16.4): radial error about the true position (Ld, 19y" + (28.03 = 33.86m lilferentiate bensern lear standard des ations anal rail standaee devtation ‘plained i the anes. The abbrec ations avec in this ehapres ate fr lnear standard estat ogc we tadial sean ste = te atrial Math terme a8 CHEAPER 1) NAVIGATIONAL ERRORS, Orthogonal position lines Orthogonal position lines are position lines (Fig. Ih-8) intersecting at right igles where the individual linear standard deviations (1a) of the error values in those position lines are the same The 95% circle of error around these two position lines may be found, as shown in the annex (page 487), from the formula 16.5 where @ is the linear standard deviation of each position line and ais the 99% or Yor value of the error in each, A 1 | | (201 (201 | afi2n © . | t= ) | | } jot bof ot 8 Fig. 16-5, ‘The 45% error circle around two orthogonal position lines ‘The error ellipse and the equivalent probability circle Orthogonal position lines do not often oceur in practice. It is more likely that the ervor distribution will he in the form of an error ellipse (Big. 16-7), where the position Fines do not cut at a right angle and have different standard deviations.PYPESOF ERROR Fig. 16-7, ‘The error ellipse The two position lines AB and CD intersect at Eat an angle a; @; is the linear standard deviation or 1a value of the error in AB, and a is the linear standard deviation or lo value of the error in CD. The intersection of the standard deviation position line hands forms a diamond of error FGHJ. The exact shape of the error ellipse varies with the magnitude of the errors and a as well as the angle of cut @. The development of the 95% ellipse is explained in the annex (page 488) It is more helpful to the navigator if this error ellipse is adjusted to form a circle around the position where the probability of error is the same as that for the ellipse. Such a circle is known as an eguivalent probability circle. ‘The radial error oF Iding (0) value of this circle may be found from the formula: Udi = cose @ va? Fos 166 where & and g» are the individual linear standard deviations and a is the angle of cut between the two position lines. Similarly, the 2djny (20,). ¥ illustrated in Fig. 16-8 (page #68), is: Ways =2 cose as of + a! 16.7 Scnsee ay gt + jt 16.8 where @ = 20; and 6 = 20. The 2dim, value is of particular interest to the navigator because its percentage probability lies between 95.4% and 98.2%, dependent on the shape of the ellipse. The navigator may therefore use the 2djn, value for the 95%, probability circle for most practical purposes as, in so doing, he is always taking 4 more pessimistic but safer view of the likely circle of error. An example is given later in the section on the practical application of navigational errors(CHPTER 10 NAVIGATIONAL ERRORS i Fig. 16-8. The 2djq error circle around the position Circular error probable (CEP) ‘The navigator may encounter the term circular error probable (CEP) as the accuracy of navigational equipment is often expressed using this term. ‘The CEP may be defined as being the 50% probability circle, ‘That is to say, there is an equal chance that the position lies outside or within the circle. When the position lines are orthogonal, the radius of the CEP approximates to 1.20, where @ is the standard deviation of the two position lines. The 95%. probability circle may be found by multiplying the CEP radius by a factor of approximately 2.1, This factor may also be used to find the 95% equivalent probability circle trom the CEP around an error ellipse, provided that the latter is not too clongated. ‘The relationship between the CEP and the shape of the ellipse is set out in the annex (p.493) THE PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF NAVIGATIONAL ERRORS Allowing for faults and systematic errors Errors arising from faults and systematic errors need w be eliminated or lowed for. Various ways of achieving this have already been discussed in this chapter and are summarised below wother, Examples are: cross-checking id vice versa; crass-checking the DR/EP. 1. Gross-checking one system against radar against the Decca Navigator a against 4 position line from any source.THE PRACTICAL APPLICMPION OF NAVIGATION AL ERRORS ws 2. Navigational procedures which help te eliminate mistakes. for example. crosscherking the Navigating Offieer’s work 3. The reduction or elimination of systematic errors in navigational equipment such ay the gyro- and magnetic compasses. radio aids, ete Examples are ») ‘The necessary adjustnents to the gyro-compass lor course, speed and latitude and the determination of any residual error by the methods described in Chapter 5) ‘The reduction of the deviation in the magnetic compass by means of small magnets and solt-iron correetors and the tabukation of the residual deviation, 6) The allowance tor fixed errors in the Decea Navigator 4) ‘The allowance for personal error Allowing for random errors Once faults and systematic errors have heen allowed for, the navigator is left with random errors. In general, these may he expected to have a normal distribution (Fig. 16-4) and those which are rectangular (p.482) can often be disregarded because they add so little to the total random error As far as random errors in navigation are concerned, the accuracy limits of a position line or fix should be such that there is « 95% probability that the actual position line or fix is within the limit quoted. ‘This means that there is always a 5% or | in 20 chance that the position line or fix lies outside this limit and the practical navigator always needs to bear this in mind. It is a matter of navigational prudence to choose that position in an area of uncertainty which places the ship closest to danger. Because position lines usually cross at an angle other than a right angle and because the amount of error in individual position lines may well be different when expressed in n miles, the navigator is often left with a diamond of error nd an error ellipse, as shown in Fig. 15-7. For all practical purposes, provided the ellipse is not too elongated, he may determine the radius of his 95%. probability circle around his position by using the procedure described on 189, particularly if that procedure has been programmed as suggested on PAV. Alternatively, he may use the 2dnn, formulae (16.7) or (16.8), which produce a slightly larger error circle and so err on the side of caution The navigator may then use the 95% probability circle in preference to the 95% crror ellipse, Thus, in Fig. 16-9 (p.470) a position F may be obtained from the intersection of rwo position lines AB and CD, cach considered accurate to 1° (95% probability). AB and CD cut at 65° and the distances of the two objects observed are: lighthouse 12 miles: chimney 15, miles. One degree at 12" subtends 02. at 15’, 07.25. From formula (16.8), the radius of the 2... probability cincle around F is 0°35. Using formulae (16.27) und (16.28), the radius of the 95% probability circle is 0.33. In the special case where position lines cross at right angles and the standard linear deviations are the same, a circle of radius [4 times the 95% or 2g value of the Tinear error is the 15% probability circle sbjeets are geeatee than son sermally he expected ay svustal Habe twcrabjecty ate Sand hse Phe distances of srs ation, ft the are sine olathe eh Tue ean she 13% prednatlity viele ty awa 2Hv0 CHAPTER In NAVIGATIONAL ERRORS c 2d (95% approx! Probapiiy Circle Fig. 16-9, Pht % approx.) probability circle 1 he din (9 's of random errors As explained earlier, there is a 95% probability that the random error in any position line is within the two sigma (20) value selected; that is to say, there is a 1 in 20 chance that the position line lies outside this limit. Ifit appears that the error in a position line is greater than three sigma (3a), for example from its juxtaposition with other position lines, it is more likely that the error has been caused by a mistake rather than by a random error. This is because the likelihood of there being a normally distributed random error equal to 30 is only about 0.27% or I chance in 370. The likelihood of the error being as great as to is only about I chance in 16,000. In practice, therefore, if the random error in any one position line appears to lie between 20 and 30, that position line should be treated with caution. Some kind of mistake may have been made and the possibility should he investigated. If the error appears to be greater than 30, then almost certainly a mistake has occurred unless there is supporting evidence to the contrary. The navigator will heed to investigate the reason, lor example: He may have made a blunder such as misreading an instrument or misidentitying an object. He may have made an incorrect assessment of the sigma values «f onePE PRACTICAL APPLIG\TION OF NAVIGATIONAL ERRORS m1 His assessment of external factors such as current and tidal stream may be Most Probable Position (MPP) The navigator is now able to determine his 95% Position Probability Area i PPA) PPA was defined in Chapter 8 (page [8L) and four examples of finding this are given elow, Within this area, he needs to choose his Most Probable Position MPP) (Fig. 16-10), which he may treat as a fix, an EP or a DR dependent on the quality of the input. MPP may be defined as that position which takes into account the probability of error in each piece of positional information wailable. Judgement is all-important when dealing in a practical way with errors in position lines in order to arrive at an MPP. The magnitudes of the 95% errors i the DR and the EP, and in the position ines obtained by visual observation of celestial and terrestrial objects, are largely a matter of judgement based upor experience. Some idea of the likely extent of these errors has already been given earlier in this chapter (see page 455) and example 4 shows how these values may be used, Example 1 In Fig. 16-10 £ is the ship's estimated position, considered accurate to within a radius of 3 miles (95% probability). At this time a position line 4B is obtained. considered accurate to within 1} miles (95% probability). The PPA will be the sector CDFG, the overlapping area created by the EP probability circle and the band of error around the position line. PPA: CDFG MPP: H Note HI = ss Fig 16-10. Position Probability Area (1); MPP within che PPAwn CHAPTER 16- NAVIGATIONAL ERRORS Uf the overall effect of each error is considered to be of a random normat distribution, the feet of each error is propertional to the square af its size. ‘Vhus, if the likely error in the position line is @ miles and that in the EP is miles, the Mast Probable Position His nearer the position line AB at a distance: ete where d is the perpendicular distance EJ between the EP, #, and the pasition Hine AB in Fig, 16-10, 1a = Ld miles and 6 = § miles for a 95% probability and Kis 1" then HE will a 16.9 1) = 012 from ABt Example 2 If the position Tine falls outside the probability cirele, although the error bands overlap (Fig. 16-11), the MPP as calculated above may fall outside the PPA. Fig. 16-11. Position Probability Area (2): MPP outside the PPA. The Most Probable Position #, as calculated above, lies outside the Position Probability Area CDE, Although the two areas overlap, the fact that AB lies ud an ereor circle may interset ay in Fig. Wi irs mts can he combined inthis wav to give a better estimate of the. penta. Stasi al “confidence iteeval sets may indicate thatthe ten setet citar inceurastent wth each seeJHE PRACTICAL APPLICA TION OF NAVIGATION AL ERRORS ms outside the probability circle around the EP means that some kind of mistake may have occurred, and so the navigator must treat the result with caution, He needs ( investigate the possibility of a mistake and, if possible, resolve it. All other things being equal, he would probably choose the position Fas the MPP. CDF is closest to HL This is the point where the probabilit Example 3 If the wo error bands do not overlap at all (Fig. 16-12), then almost certainly some mistake must have occurred which should be investigated. ‘The Navigating Olficer may have erred in his estimate of the 95% probability limits, or he may have made a blunder. Fig. 16-12. Position Probability Area (3): error bands do not overlap If these matters cannot be resolved and the navigator is forced to choose becween the two, his choice of position must depend on the circumstances at the time. For example, if he is in the vicinity of dangers, he should choose that position G which puts him closest to these, Alternatively, no dangers being present, he may choose J, the position on 4B closest to £. On the other hand, if he decides to weight each error in proportion to its square, then he may choose Has the MPP, calculating this from formula (16.9). In short, no hard and fast rule as to what the navigator should do can he laid down; he has to use his own judgement.CHAPTER 16- NAVIGATIONAL ERRORSé THE PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF NAVIGATIONAL ERRORS, " Example 4 Consider the application of the principles of probability to the example given at the beginning of this chapter (Fig. 16-1), and how these principles may be used to determine the PPA and MPP at 0700 (Fig. 16-13) The error in the obserced position at 0500 Assume this was obtained from two astronomical position lines* cach considered correct to within 1'.5 (95% probability) crossing at 602, Then, from formula (16.8): = cosee 60° . (1.5)? #71 45 At 0600, therefore, the navigator should be able to assume that there is a 95% probability that his actual position will lie within 2/45 of position The error in the determination of the EP at 0700 The magnitude of the error in the EP depends upon those factors mentioned on page 456. Assuming that there is a 95% probability that the error in the EP is. within 3% of the distance run since the previous fix at 0600, this error should therefore amount to 5% of 17” o 07.85. Assuming a 95% probability, the overall error at 0700 is therefore, from formula (16.2), equal to v (2.45)* + (0.85)? or 2'.59. The radius of the position circle around C at 0700 is then about 2'.6, again assuming a 95% probability Vole: ‘The two errors 2.45 and 0'.85 must not be added together to obtain the combined error. The likelihood that the maximum error could be as much as 21-45 + 01.85 = 3.3 is 1/20 X 1/20 or 1/400 or 0.25%. The probability that the 0700 position lies within 3’.3 of Cis therefore 99.75%, a much higher percentage than is needed for most practical purposes. The error in the bearing at 0700 Ifthe bearing of the oil production platform is accurate to within 1°, given a 95% probability, and assuming that the distance of the platform is about 18", the position line DE will be correct to within 0'.3. The distance CG may be measured, 1.2 (CG is perpendicular to DE). The navigator can now reduce the position circle at 0700 to the Position Probability Area KLMN. The Most Probable Position H_ may be calculated, using formula (16.9), as shown in the example on page 471 (Fig. 16-10). In Fig. 16-13: =0'.016 = 0'.02 * An astronomical fix frequently comprises mote than two position lines. ‘The method of obtaining the Most Probable Position tom a number al position lines that are subject to normally distributed errors is given in the aries.V6 (CHAPTER 10-NAVIGATIONAL ERRORS, Position H may now be plotted and the ship's fature track developed trom this position In this particular case. the EP (6) and the MPP (11) are virtually identical. 90 for all practical purposes the navigator may plot from (6. [tw however, to assume that the 1wo positions will always he se close to Ex. ther, as ples | 10 3 make clear. Each position line should be weighted to take account of its probability of error, before an assessment of the MPP is made.