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  • 11 Econometric

    Diunggah oleh

    Pankaj Kamdi
    21 tayangan1 halaman
    Econometric methods rely on statistical analysis of economic data and theory-based models to estimate relationships and make forecasts. The document discusses principles for effective use of econometric forecasting models based on a review by Allen and Fildes. Key principles include estimating relationships based on theory and prior studies, keeping models simple, and that econometric models tend to provide more accurate long-term forecasts than other methods when following best practices. While complex, following principles like including important variables and domain knowledge can improve forecasts.

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    11-econometric[1]

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    Econometric methods rely on statistical analysis of economic data and theory-based models to estimate relationships and make forecasts. The document discusses principles for effective use of econometric forecasting models based on a review by Allen and Fildes. Key principles include estimating relationships based on theory and prior studies, keeping models simple, and that econometric models tend to provide more accurate long-term forecasts than other methods when following best practices. While complex, following principles like including important variables and domain knowledge can improve forecasts.

    Hak Cipta:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Unduh sebagai PDF, TXT atau baca online dari Scribd
    Tandai sebagai konten tidak pantas
    21 tayangan1 halaman

    11 Econometric

    Diunggah oleh

    Pankaj Kamdi
    Econometric methods rely on statistical analysis of economic data and theory-based models to estimate relationships and make forecasts. The document discusses principles for effective use of econometric forecasting models based on a review by Allen and Fildes. Key principles include estimating relationships based on theory and prior studies, keeping models simple, and that econometric models tend to provide more accurate long-term forecasts than other methods when following best practices. While complex, following principles like including important variables and domain knowledge can improve forecasts.

    Hak Cipta:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Unduh sebagai PDF, TXT atau baca online dari Scribd
    Tandai sebagai konten tidak pantas
    dari 1

    11.

    Econometric Methods

    Knowledge
    Source

    judgmental statistical

    self others univariate multivariate

    role no role theory-based data-based

    Role Expert Extrapolation Multivariate


    Intentions
    Playing Opinions Models Models

    Analogies

    Conjoint Judgmental Rule-Based


    Analysis Bootstrapping Forecasting

    Expert Econometric
    Systems Models

    Econometric methods rely on statistical procedures to who follow the basic principles should generally be
    estimate relationships for models specified on the more accurate than those who do not.
    basis of theory, prior studies, and domain knowledge.
    Given good prior knowledge about relationships and A good question to ask econometric model builders
    good data, econometric methods provide an ideal would be, "Could a simpler model do just as well?"
    way to incorporate expert judgment and quantitative While simplicity is a principle that extends to all
    information. As implied by their name, econometric forecasting methods, complexity can easily get out of
    methods were developed primarily by economists, hand in econometrics. Still, some complexity is
    but other disciplines have also contributed to the called for.
    methodology. Certainly their use extends beyond
    economics. Allen and Fildes show that econometric models are
    more accurate than other methods for long-range
    In "Econometric Forecasting," Geoff Allen from the forecasts. Evidence also suggests that the principles
    University of Massachusetts and Robert Fildes from described for econometric methods can improve
    the University of Lancaster describe principles for short-term forecasts.
    how and when to use econometric methods. For
    example, one should estimate equations in levels, not While the authors examine primarily time-series data,
    in first differences. The authors are ambitious in that work has also been done on econometric models for
    they provide the most recent principles proposed by cross-sectional data. Many of the principles apply to
    leading econometricians. The downside of these both types of data, for example, to use theory and
    recent developments is that much of the work is domain knowledge to select variables, to include all
    speculative. Also, because of their complexity, some important variables, and to keep each model simple.
    proposed principles seem risky. However, forecasters

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