D PHNG

Vi kt qu phn tch nh trn, cng vi nhn nh t phn phn tch kinh t v m nhm
nhn nh rng:
Tng trng doanh thu (Thu nhp li v cc khon thu nhp tng t) nm 2010 l 50% . T
nm 2011 2014 tng trng duy tr mc 15%.
Tc tng trng thu nhp li thun gim dn t nm 2010- 2014 l 28% - 16%.
T l chi ph qun l chung/thu nhp li thun nm 2010 2011 nhm cho rng l 60%, hin ti
ACB c mng li giao dch ph khp cc trung tm kinh t ln ca c nc, c bit l TP.
H Ch Minh nn trong tng lai ngn hng ACB c xu hng m rng ra nhng khu vc c
kinh t km pht trin hn, do t trng chi ph qun l chung/doanh thu s gia tng do cc chi
ph kim sot, b my qun l cng knh hn (nm 2012 2013 l 62% v nm 2014 l 64%).
i vi ti sn ca ACB, nhm nhn nh T l khu hao trn ti sn mc 26%.
Thu thu nhp trn thu nhp trc thu nhm nhn nh duy tr mc 25%. iu ny ph hp
tng i vi chnh sch thu hin nay v s liu trong qu kh ca t s ny.
T kt qu phn tch c cu thu nhp ngoi li thun trn, cng vi chin lc pht trin thnh
ngn hng a nng ca ACB, nhm nhn nh Li thun t hot ng dch v /thu nhp li thun
tng qua cc nm t 18% nm 2010 26% nm 2014.
Li thun t hot ng kinh doanh ngoi hi v vng/thu nhp li thun c s st gim do chm
dt hot ng sn vng nhm nhn nh nm 2010 l 13% v cc nm sau l duy tr tng trng
cc nm sau 2014 l 16%
Li thun t hot ng khc/ thu nhp li thun tng u qua cc nm t 2.5% nm 2010 3.3%
nm 2014.
Thu nhp c tc t gp vn, mua c phn v cc khon u t di hn/ thu nhp li thun tng
u qua cc nm t 6% nm 2010 14% nm 2014.
Chi ph d phng ri ro tn dng/thu nhp li thun gim dn qua cc nm t 11% nm 2010
7% nm 2014. iu ny c gii thch l do tng trng tn dng cao trong nm 2009, t ra
nhng th thch cho cht lng ti sn ca ACB trong tng lai.

V khi lng huy ng t tin gi ca khch hng

gia tng hng nm cng vi vic tng vn iu l v
NH GI
m rng mng li hot ng. Tc tng trng tin
gi ca khch hng vn tng song c xu hng n
nh trong tng lai ( t 50% nm 2010 10% nm 2014).
Bng D phng c trnh by trong phn Ph lc.

CCH 1: NH GI THEO M HNH NH GI THU NHP CN LI

Trn c s d phng bng Cn i k ton (Ph lc 3 Bng tnh Excel d phng bng cn i
k ton), bng Bo co thu nhp (Ph lc 4 Bng tnh Excel d phng bng Bo co thu nhp)
theo cc nm t 2010-2014 ta c c s d liu u vo cho phng php nh gi ny. Kt qu
nh sau:
NH GI THEO M HNH NH GI THU NHP
CN LI
S c phiu ang lu hnh
Chi ph s dng vn
Tc tng trng
Hin gi ca thu nhp gi cn li 2010-2013
Gi tr cui ca thu nhp gi cn li 2014
Gi tr mi c phn

777,975,325
9%
7%
$3,257,040.24
21,487,37
5
34,48
1

CCH 2: NH GI THEO PHNG PHP FCFE

Trn c s d phng bng Bo co dng tin (Ph lc 5 Bng tnh Excel d phng bng Bo
co dng tin), theo cc nm t 2010-2014 ta c c s d liu u vo cho phng php nh gi
ny. Kt qu nh sau:
NH GI THEO PHNG PHP FCFE
Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun
Tc tng trng
Hin gi giai on 2010-2013
Hin gi giai on tng trng n nh
Ga tr ca n rng bnh qun
S c phiu ang lu hnh

23%
3%
155,534,584
61,615,072
172,145,395
777,975,325

Gi mt c phiu

57,848

PHN TCH M PHNG

Trn c s 2 phng php nh gi nh trn, nhm

phn tch gi mt c phiu ca ACB mc trung bnh gia 2 phng php l: 46.000 ng

Vi cch 1: NH GI THEO M HNH NH GI THU NHP CN LI

Ta cho Chi ph s dng vn chy t 8% - 11% (hng dc), Tc tng trng chy t 4%-9%
(hng ngang). Gi c phiu bin ng tng i vi 2 ch tiu ny th hin bng sau y:
4%

5%

6%

30,244

35,158

44,986

22,741

24,698

27,959

17,797

18,486

19,519

14,313

14,396

14,512

8%
9%
10%
11%

7%
8%
9%
7 #DIV/0!
(
4,469
43,464)
3
5 #DIV/0!
4,481
4,047
2
2
1,241
4,686
35,018
1
1
4,685
4,975
15,553

Vi cch 2: NH GI THEO PHNG PHP FCFE

Ta cho Chi ph s dng vn c phn chy t 20% - 25% (hng dc), Tc tng trng chy t
2% - 5% (hng ngang). Gi c phiu bin ng tng i vi 2 ch tiu ny th hin bng sau
y:
2%

3%

87,001

92,715

75,029

79,975

64,102

68,409

20%
21%
22%

4%
9
9,143
8
5,502
7
3,194

5%
10
6,428
9
1,720
7
8,542

23%
54,077

57,848

44,836

48,155

36,284

39,218

24%
25%

6
2,016
5
1,807
4
2,433

6
6,648
5
5,842
4
5,968

**EPS 4 qu gn nht(nghn ng) :

4.18

P/E :

9.09

Gi tr s sch /cp(nghn ng):

KLGD khp lnh trung bnh 10 phin:

12.66
1,396,660
777,975,32
5

KLCP ang lu hnh:

Vn ha th trng(t ng) :

29,563.06

Ngy 11/01/2010
Gi tham chiu:

38.8

Gi m ca:

38.8

Gi cao nht:

38.6

Gi thp nht:

37.8

Khi lng:

786,800

GD rng NTNN:

*Room NN cn li:

n v gi: 1000 VN
(*)n v KL Room NN: 10.000 CP

Cp nht lc 11:00 Th 2, 11/01/2010

38.0
-0.8 (-2.1 %)

Ngi vit:
V Quang Mnh
E mail lin h: manh.tcdn@gmail.com
Khoa Ti Chnh Doanh Nghip i Hc Kinh T TP HCM

Trng d n Nghin cu ti chnh vi m- D n vi n v ti tr c quyn l Ngn hng

TMCP Chu (ACB)
Tc gi ti t gii thng NCKH sinh vin Nh kinh t tr - nm 2009- i hc Kinh t TP
HCM