P. 1
ANALISIS DERET BERKALA

ANALISIS DERET BERKALA

|Views: 240|Likes:
Dipublikasikan oleh Fauzi Punya Selera

More info:

Published by: Fauzi Punya Selera on Jun 27, 2011
Hak Cipta:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

08/30/2015

pdf

text

original

IeIompok o IeIompok o IeIompok o IeIompok o

I. I. Azis Azis Ahmodi Ahmodi (II093b9b) (II093b9b)
Z. Z. Cho Choi iruI ruI Fouzi Fouzi (II093b8 (II093b84) 4)
3. 3. Irmo moqhpiroh Irmo moqhpiroh (II093b87) (II093b87)
4. 4. EIIio Dewi Purnomosori EIIio Dewi Purnomosori (II093b8I) (II093b8I)
b. b. SuIisfyo SuIisfyo Pini Pini (II093b83) (II093b83)
o. o. Aris Aris Puswonfo Puswonfo (II093b8Z) (II093b8Z)
7. 7. Poni Poni Iorwini Iorwini (II093oZZ) (II093oZZ)
8. 8. Widiosori Widiosori (II093o34) (II093o34)
9. 9. YuIiono YuIiono (II093b97) (II093b97)
I
PEPSEMTASI PEPSEMTASI
IELOMPOI o IELOMPOI o
"AMALISA "AMALISA DEPET DEPET 8EPIALA" 8EPIALA"
Z
AnuIisu
Deret ßerkuIu
Penqertiun
AnuIisu
Deret ßerkuIu
AnuIisu Tren SekuIer
Metode | Rutu-rutu
dun
Metode kuudrut Minimum
PenqoIuhun Dutu
Deret ßerkuIu
"Metode Averuqe"
(ßerqeruk Sederhunu
dun Tertimbunq)
3
8eberopo Penqerfion
Deref 8erkoIo
· Dofo yonq dikumpuIkon dori wokfu ke wokfu unfuk menqqomborkon
perkembonqon suofu keqiofon (perkembonqon produksi, horqo, hosiI
pen¡uoIon, ¡umIoh penduduk, ¡umIoh keceIokoon, ¡umIoh ke¡ohofon
dsb).
· Seronqkoion MiIoi-MiIoi VoriobeI yonq disusun berdosorkon wokfu.
· Seronqkoion hosiI observosi yonq ferdiri dori voriobeI Yi don Xi
merupokon wokfu yonq berqerok secoro seroqom don ke oroh yonq
somo dori wokfu yonq Iompou ke wokfu yonq mendofonq, moko
seronqkoion dofo yonq ferdiri dori Yi di ofos don merupokon funqsi
dori Xi dinomokon deref berkoIo (Time Series) ofou dofo hisforis
(hisforicoI dofo).
4
Iomponen Deref 8erkoIo
Terdiri dori 4 boqion
· Trend SekuIer
· Voriosi Musim
· Voriosi SikIi
· Voriosi Pondom / Pesidu
b
Iomponen Deref 8erkoIo
Seboqoi 8enfuk Perubohon
Trend SekuIer yoifu qerokon yonq
ber¡onqko pon¡onq, Iombon seoIoh-
oIoh oIun ombok don
berkecenderunqon menu¡u ke sofu
oroh, oroh menoik ofou menurun.
Tren sedemikion ini umumnyo meIipufi
qerokon yonq Iomonyo sekifor I0
fohun ofou Iebih don dopof di
qomborkon 0oris Trend SekuIer yonq
sonqof berquno unfuk membuof
romoIon yonq okon dofonq.
MisuInyu :
Trend perfumbuhon indusfri don
ekonomi, kofo, universifos,
perkembonqon perminfoon dsb.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79
o
Z Vuriusi Musim yoifu qerokon
yonq beruIonq-uIonq secoro
ferofur seIomo kuronq Iebih
sefohun. 0erokon sedemikion ifu
sebefuInyo beroyun sekifor
Trend.
MisuInyu :
Iondisi AIom don Iebiosoon
Mosyorokof menyebobkon
fer¡odinyo voriosi musim doIom
bidonq produksi, horqo-horqo
boronq oqrorio don pen¡uoIon
boronq - boronq konsumsi
diwokfu hori-hori royo.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
7
3 Vuriusi SikIi utuu SikIus yoifu oyunon frend yonq ber¡onqko Iebih
pon¡onq don oqok Iebih fidok ferofur (berIoku unfuk dofo fohunon).
0erokon sikIi biso feruIonq sefeIoh ¡onqko wokfu ferfenfu (sefiop 3
fohun, b fohun ofou biso Iebih), biso ¡uqo fidok feruIonq doIom ¡onqko
wokfu yonq somo.
Voriosi ini berIonqsunq seIomo Iebih dori sefohun don fidok pernoh voriosi
ini memperIihofkon poIo yonq ferofur menqenoi qeIombonqnyo.
MisuInyu : sifuosi poIifik doIom don Iuor neqeri dsb.
Serukun SikIi Sempurnu :
umumnyo meIipufi fose-fose
- pemuIihon
- kemokmuron
- kemunduron / resesi
- depresi
8
4 Vuriusi Rundom yoifu merupokon qerokon yonq
disebobkon oIeh fokfor kebefuIon (chonce focfor).
0erokon yonq berbedo fopi doIom wokfu yonq sinqkof,
fidok diikufi denqon poIo yonq ferofur don fidok dopof
diperkirokon.
MisuInyu :
disebobkon oIeh peperonqon, bon¡ir, qempo bumi,
perubohon poIifik, pemoqokon dsb. Sehinqqo
mempenqoruhi keqiofon-keqiofon perdoqonqon,
perindusfrion, keuonqon dII.
Perbedoon onforo voriosi rondom denqon kefiqo voriosi
sebeIumnyo ferIefok podo sisfemofik fIukfuosi ifu sendiri.
9
PenqoIohon Dofo
Deref 8erkoIo
Dofo kuonfifofif deref berkoIo merupokon bohon onoIiso
frend sekuIer, voriosi musim don sikIi. PenqoIohon serfo
penyesuoion dofo horus diIokukon sebeIum dofo fersebuf
dopof diqunokon boqi fu¡uon onoIiso.
Pemokoion dofo wo¡ib memperhofikon beberopo mosoIoh
fenfonq :
I. Voriosi PenonqqoIon
Z. Perubohon Horqo
3. Perubohon Penduduk
4. Syorof Perbondinqon Dofo
I0
Voriosi PenonqqoIon
· SebeIum dofo deref berkoIo dopof diqunokon boqi
fu¡uon onoIiso, pemokoi dofo wo¡ib menqodokon
penyesuoion ferhodop ¡umIoh hori doIom buIon.
Dofo fenfonq konsumsi, pen¡uoIon dsb umumnyo
disesuoikon ofos dosor ¡umIoh hori doIom sofu
buIon. Penyesuoion fersebuf dopof diIokukon
denqon ¡oIon memboqi onqko konsumsi buIonon ofou
onqko pen¡uoIon buIonon denqon ¡umIoh hori doIom
sofu buIon yonq bersonqkufon oqor memperoIeh
onqko konsumsi ofou pen¡uoIon per hori.
II
Perubohon Horqo-Horqo
· DoIom bonyok hoI dofo deref berkoIo ferdiri dori
onqko-onqko niIoi produksi. 8iIo kifo berfu¡uon
menqqunokon deref berkoIo unfuk menqonoIiso
perubohon fisik yonq bebos dori penqoruh
fIukfuosi horqo, dofo kuonfifofif yonq horus
didefIosikon denqon indeks horqo yonq sesuoi
sebeIum dopof diqunokon boqi fu¡uon onoIiso.
Deref berkoIo fenfonq pen¡uoIon, pendopofon,
onqkos bohon menfoh dsb horus didefIosikon oqor
fIukfuosinyo bebos dori perubohon horqo-
horqonyo.
IZ
Perubohon Penduduk
· Ado koIonyo, kifo inqin menqefohui fIukfuosi
produksi per kopifo ofou konsumsi per kopifo.
DoIom hoI sedemikion ifu, onqko-onqko produksi
ofou konsumsi horus diboqi denqon ¡umIoh
penduduk. Anqko per kopifo sedemikion ifu
sebefuInyo feIoh memosukon unsur perubohon
penduduk di doIomnyo. Perhifunqon per kopifo
sedemikion ifu penfinq sekoIi koreno produksi
dopof so¡o menun¡ukon qerokon menoik, fefopi per
kopifo produksi okon menurun ¡iko kenoikon ¡umIoh
penduduk Iebih cepof dori kenoikon produksinyo.
I3
Syorof Perbondinqon Dofo
· Semuo dofo deref berkoIo yonq diqunokon seboqoi
dosor onoIiso sehorusnyo befuI befuI sebondinq.
Jiko sumber dofo berbedo, peneIifion ferhodop
perumuson isfiIoh-isfiIoh oIeh beberopo sumber
yonq berbedo perIu sekoIi diIokukon. Perumuson
yonq berbedo menqenoi isfiIoh yonq somo oIeh
beberopo sumber perIu disesuoikon sebeIum
dofonyo dopof diqunokon. Penqqunoon dofo dori
keduo sumber dofo yonq berbedo fonpo
penyesuoion okon menqhosiIkon perbedoon doIom
keseroqomon perbondinqon.
I4
8eberopo pemikiron fenfonq
mefode onoIiso deref berkoIo
· Secoro konvensionoI, onoIiso deref berkoIo seIoIu didosorkon
podo onqqopon bohwo niIoi deref berkoIo merupokon hosiI
perkoIion (muIfipIikofif) dori frend sekuIer, voriosi musim,
voriosi sikIi don voriosi rondom. Tidok semuo sor¡ono
ekonomi bersependopof bohwo komponen deref berkoIo
honyo ferdiri 4 mocom. Penqoruh komponennyo fidok usoh
horus muIfipIikofif quno menqhosiIkon dofo deref
berkoIonyo. Ado kemunqkinon penqoruh komponen di ofos
bersifof oddifif. Denqon Ioin perkofoon, dofo deref berkoIo
dopof merupokon hosiI perkoIion, pen¡umIohon ofou
kombinosi doIom seribu sofu coro dori komponen-
komponennyo.
Ib
TPEM SEIULEP
Io
Ciri-ciri Trend SekuIer
· 0oris frend berbenfuk Iinier, bohkon odo yonq menun¡ukon
non-Iinier yoifu kurvo 0omperfz don kurvo Ioqisfik PeorI-Peed.
· 0oris frend yonq Iozim diqunokon seboqoi confoh-confoh
perhifunqon doIom buku-buku feks ioIoh 0oris frend Iinier.
· Penqqomboron sebuoh qoris frend Iinier doIom deref berkoIo
berfu¡uon quno menqukur dispersi (deviosi) niIoi-niIoi deref
berkoIo dori frend-nyo.
· Penqqomboron frend ¡uqo dimoksudkon quno meneIifi penqoruh
frend ferhodop komponen-komponen Ioinnyo.
· Trend diqunokon doIom meIokukon peromoIon (forecosfinq)
I7
Penqqunoon
Trend SekuIer Linier
· Mefode peneropon qoris Iinier secoro bebos.
· Mefode "Sefenqoh Pofo-rofo" (semi-overoqe).
· Mefode peneropon qoris frend secoro mofemofis.
· Mefode "kuodrof minimum" (Ieosf squore).
I8
"Mefode Semi Averoqe"
( I/Z rofo-rofo )
Terdiri beberupu kusus duIum pencuriun niIui trennyu :
umIuh Dutu Senup dun komponen keIompok Senup
Z umIuh Dutu Senup dun komponen keIompok Sun|iI
3 umIuh Dutu Sun|iI :
- curu menqhiIunqkun deret berkuIu tertenquh
- curu Z menumbuh deret berkuIu tertenquh
I9
Prosedur pencorion niIoi frend :
I. IeIompokkon dofo men¡odi duo keIompok denqon
¡umIoh deref berkoIo yonq somo.
Z. Hifunq semi fofoI fiop keIompok denqon ¡oIon
men¡umIohkon niIoi deref berkoIo fiop keIompok.
3. CoriIoh rofo-rofo hifunq fiop keIompok unfuk
memperoIeh ] rofo-rofo (semi overoqe).
4. Unfuk menenfukon niIoi frend Iinier unfuk fohun-
fohun ferfenfu dopof dirumuskon seboqoi
berikuf :
Z0
Pumus Y' = u0 + b×
Y' ~ niIoi frend periode ferfenfu
u0 ~ niIoi frend periode dosor,
( X, ¡iko periode dosor berodo podo keIompok I. ) ofou
( XZ, ¡iko periode dosor berodo podo keIompok Z. )
b ~ perfombohon frend fohunon secoro rofo-rofo yonq dihifunq
ofos dosor (XZ - X) n dimono XZ ~ semi ovoroqe keIompok ke-Z
don XI ~ semi ovoroqe keIompok perfomo.
n ~ ¡umIoh periode onforo periode XZ don periode XI.
× ~ ¡umIoh unif fohun yonq dihifunq dori periode dosor.
ZI
ontoh kusus :
umIuh Dutu Senup dun komponen keIompok Senup
Tuhun Persediuun Semi
TotuI
Semi
Averuqe
Trend
AwuI Tuhun
ZZ Z3,Zb
Z Z b 4,b 3ó,37b
3 Z 4,b
4 7Z óZ,óZb
b Z 7b,7b
ó Z 0 Z0Z ,7b
7 Z0Z Z0Z
Z3Z Zb,Zb
0
b0
00
b0
Z00
Zb0
Z 3 4 b ó 7 0
ZZ
· MiIoi semi overoqe keIompok I (ofos) ~ I49,b merupokon niIoi frend
horqo rofo- rofo periode dosor I Jonuori I993 ofou okhir 3I
Desember I99Z.
· Sedonqkon MiIoi semi overoqe keIompok Z (bowoh) Z0Z merupokon
niIoi frend horqo rofo-rofo periode dosor I Jonuori I997 ofou
okhir 3I Desember I99o.
"Perhifunqon Trend AwoI Tohun"
Pumus Y' = u0 + b×
8iIo u0 ~ u3 ~ I49,b
b ~ (Z0Z - I49,b) / 4 ~ I3,IZb
Moko niIoi frend owoI fohun I99b odoIoh
Y' ~ I49,b + I3,IZb (Z)
~ I49,b + Zo,Zb
~ 7b,7b
Afou biso dicori denqon :
8iIo u0 ~ u7 ~ Z0Z
b ~ I3,IZb
Moko MiIoi frend owoI fohun I99b odoIoh
Y' ~ Z0Z + I3,IZb (-Z)
~ Z0Z - Zo,Zb
~ 7b,7b
Z3
ontoh kusus Z :
umIuh Dutu Senup dun komponen keIompok Sun|iI
Tuhun Persediuun Semi
TotuI
Semi
Averuqe
Trend
AwuI Tuhun
0Z 00,30
Z Z0 0Z,b
3 b b30 0ó 04,ó
4 0b 07,4
b 0 0,4Z
ó 4 ,70
7 Z 3,
Z0 b7 7,4 ó,Zó
7 ,b4
Z000 Z4 Z0,Z
0
Z0
40
ó0
0
00
Z0
40
Z 3 4 b ó 7 0
Z4
· MiIoi semi overoqe keIompok I (ofos) ~ I0o merupokon niIoi
frend horqo rofo- rofo periode dosor 30 Juni I993 .
· Sedonqkon MiIoi semi overoqe keIompok Z (bowoh) ~ II7,4
merupokon niIoi frend horqo rofo-rofo periode dosor 30
Juni I998.
"Perhifunqon Trend AwoI Tohun"
Pumus Y' = u0 + b×
8iIo o0 ~ oI993 ~ I0o
b ~ (II7,4 - I0o) / b ~ Z,Z8
Moko niIoi frend owoI fohun I993 odoIoh
Y' ~ Io0 + Z,Z8 (-I/Z)
~ I0o - I,I4
~ 04,ó
Afou biso dicori denqon :
8iIo o0 ~ oI998 ~ II7,4
b ~ Z,Z8
Moko MiIoi frend owoI fohun I993 odoIoh
Y' ~ II7,4 + Z,Z8 (-b I/Z)
~ II7,4 - IZ,b4
~ 04,ó
Zb
Iosus JumIoh Dofo 0on¡iI
Ado Z Coro
I. JumIoh deref berkoIo dikeIompkon men¡odi Z boqion yonq
somo denqon coro menqhiIonqkon periode fohun serfo niIoi
deref berkoIo ferfenqoh.
b = XZ - X
n +
Z. JumIoh deref berkoIo dikeIompokon men¡odi Z boqion yonq
somo denqon coro memosukon periode fohun serfo niIoi
deref berkoIo ferfenqoh ke doIom fiop keIompok.
b = XZ - X
n -
Zo
ontoh kusus 3 :
umIuh Dutu Sun|iI
uru MenqhiIunqkun Deret ßerkuIu Tertenquh
Tuhun kuret
(ton)
Semi
TotuI
Semi
Averuqe
Trend
AwuI Tuhun
Z 4Z7 47347,3
3 430 Zó433 4Z44,33 4373
4 40b0 40403
b 3307
ó 3Zb7ó 40b ZZó,33 33473
7 Z4b 3000Z3
Z7Z34 Zób333
0
0000
Z0000
30000
40000
b0000
Z 3 4 b ó 7
Z7
· MiIoi semi overoqe keIompok I (ofos) ~ 4Z.I44,33 merupokon niIoi
frend periode dosor 30 Juni I993 .
· Sedonqkon MiIoi semi overoqe keIompok Z (bowoh) ~ Z8.Zo8,33
merupokon niIoi frend periode dosor 30 Juni I997.
"Perhifunqon Trend AwoI Tohun"
Pumus Y' = u0 + b×
8iIo o0 ~ oI993 ~ 4Z.I44,33
b ~ (Z8.Zo8,33 - 4Z.I44,33) / 4 ~ -3.4o9
Moko niIoi frend owoI fohun I99Z odoIoh
Y' ~ 4Z.I44,33 + (-3.4o9) (-I I/Z)
~ 4Z.I44,33 + b.Z03,b
~ 47.347,83
Afou biso dicori denqon :
8iIo o0 ~ oI997 ~ Z8.Zo8,33
b ~ -3.4o9
Moko MiIoi frend owoI fohun I993 odoIoh
Y' ~ Z8.Zo8,33 + (-3.4o9) (-b I/Z)
~ Z8.Zo8,33 +I9.079,b
~ 47.347.83
Z8
Tuhun kuret
(ton)
Semi
TotuI
Semi
Averuqe
Trend
AwuI
Tuhun
1992 42.117 46.820.5
1993 43.808 159.530 39.882.50 43.351.5
1994 40.508 39.882.5
1995 33.097 36.413.5
1995 33.097 36.413.5
1996 32.576 117.902 29.457.50 32.944.5
1997 24.995 29.475.5
1998 27.234 26.006.5
ontoh kusus 3 :
umIuh Dutu Sun|iI
uru Z Menumbuh Deret ßerkuIu Tertenquh
0
0000
Z0000
30000
40000
b0000
Z 3 4 b ó 7
· MiIoi semi overoqe keIompok I (ofos) ~ 39.88Z,b0 merupokon niIoi
frend periode dosor I Jonuori I994 ofou (3I Desember I993) .
· Sedonqkon MiIoi semi overoqe keIompok Z (bowoh) ~ Z9.47b,b0
merupokon niIoi frend periode dosor I Jonuori I997 ofou
(3I Desmber I99o).
"Perhifunqon Trend AwoI Tohun"
Pumus Y' = u0 + b×
8iIo u0 ~ oI994 ~ 39.88Z,b0
b ~ (Z9.47b,b0 - 39.88Z,b0) / 3 ~ -3.4o9
Moko niIoi frend owoI fohun I99b odoIoh
Y' ~ 39.88Z,b0 + (-3.4o9) (I)
~ 39.88Z,b0 - 3.4o9
~ 3o.4I3,b0
Afou biso dicori denqon :
8iIo u0 ~ oI997 ~ Z9.47b,b0
b ~ -3.4o9
Moko MiIoi frend owoI fohun I99b odoIoh
Y' ~ Z9.47b,b0 + (-3.4o9) (-Z)
~ Z9.47b,b0 + o.938
~ 3o.4I3,b0
30
"Mefode Leosf Squore"
(Iuodrof TerkeciI/Minimum)
· Mefode ini poIinq serinq diqunokon unfuk meromoIkon Y' koreno
perhifunqon Iebih feIifi.
· Persomoon 0oris Trend yonq okon dicori ioIoh
· Y' = u + b×
· u = (TY)
n
b = (TY×)
T×Z
· Denqon :
Y' ~ foksiron niIoi fren
u = niIoi frend podo fohun dosor.
b = rofo-rofo perfumbuhon niIoi frend fiop fohun.
× ~ voriobeI wokfu (hori, minqqu, buIon don fohun).
3I
· Unfuk meIokukon perhifunqon moko diperIukon niIoi
ferfenfu podo voriobeI wokfu (x) sehinqqo ¡umIoh
niIoi voriobeI wokfu odoIoh noI T× = 0
· 8iIo ¡umIoh observosi n qon¡iI ofou n ~ Zk + I ,moko
rofo-rofo hifunq × ioIoh observosi yonq ferfenqoh
ofou yonq ke- k + I. k disini odoIoh unif-unif wokfu
observosi, confoh :
(-k,........,-3,-Z,-I,0,I,Z,3........,k.).
o. ¡orok onforo duo wokfu diberi niIoi sofu sofuon.
b. diofos 0 diberi fondo neqofif
c. dibowohnyo diberi fondo posifif
3Z
Confoh kosus n (dofo) 0on¡iI :
Tenfukon Persomoon frend Iinier
JumIoh Ioref (fon)
Tohun JumIoh
koref (fon)
Y
X
Yx xZ Y'
I99Z 4Z.II7 -3 -IZo.3bI 9 44.b40,04
I993 43.808 -Z -87.oIo 4 4I.3Z8,3o
I994 40.b08 -I -40.b08 I 38.IIo,o8
I99b 33.097 0 0 0 34.90b,00
I99o 3Z.b7o I 3Z.b7o I 3I.o93,3Z
I997 Z4.99b Z 49.990 4 Z8.48I,o4
I998 Z7.Z34 3 8I.70Z 9 Zb.Zo4,9o
Z44.33b 0 -90.Z07 Z8
0
0000
Z0000
30000
40000
b0000
Z 3 4 b ó 7
33
· Ionsfonfo u don b dopof dicori denqon :
u = (TY) = Z4433b = 340b
n 7
b = (TY×) ~ -0Z07 = -3ZZ,ó
T×Z Z
Dimono :
Y' ~ niIoi frend yonq difoksir
o ~ 34.90b ~ niIoi frend periode dosor I99b
b ~ -3.ZZI,o8 ~ penurunon per fohun secoro Iinier
x ~ unif fohun yonq di hifunq dori x ~ 0
34
· Denqon Pumus Y' = u + b×
· Moko dopof di cori MiIoi Trend fohun I99Z men¡odi :
Y' ~ 34.90b + (- 3.ZII,o8) (-3)
~ 34.90b + 9.o3b,04
~ 44.b40,04
· Don niIoi frend fohun I998 men¡odi :
Y' ~ 34.90b + (- 3.ZII,o8) (+3)
~ 34.90b - 9.o3b,04
~ Zb.Zo9,9o
3b
kosus n (dofo) 0enop:
· 8iIo dofo deref berkoIo memiIiki ¡umIoh yonq qenop,
penenfuon (x) nyo okon menqoIomi sedikif perubohon.
· Unfuk meIokukon perhifunqon moko diperIukon niIoi
ferfenfu podo voriobeI wokfu (x) sehinqqo ¡umIoh niIoi
voriobeI wokfu odoIoh noI T× = 0
· 8iIo ¡umIoh oservosi n qenop ofou n ~ Zk ,moko rofo-rofo
hifunq × ioIoh observosi yonq ferfenqoh ofou yonq ke-
][k(k+I)].
o. ¡orok onforo duo wokfu diberi niIoi duo sofuon.
b. diofos 0 diberi fondo neqofif
c. dibowohnyo diberi fondo posifif
3o
Confoh kosus n (dofo) 0enop :
Tenfukon Persomoon frend Iinier
JumIoh Ioref (fon)
Tohun JumIoh Ioref
(fon) Y
x Yx xZ Y'
I99Z 4Z.II7 -b -ZI0.b8b Zb 4b.Z34,70
I993 43.808 -3 -I3I.4Z4 9 4I.oI4,ZZ
I994 40.b08 -I -40.b08 I 37.993,74
I99b 33.097 I 33.097 I 34.373,Zo
I99o 3Z.b7o 3 97.7Z8 9 30.7bZ,78
I997 Z4.99b b IZ4.97b Zb Z7.I3Z,30
ZI7.I0I 0 -IZo.7I7 70
0
0000
Z0000
30000
40000
b0000
Z 3 4 b ó 7
37
· Ionsfonfo u don b dopof dicori denqon :
u = (TY) = Z70 = 3ó3,b
n ó
b = (TY×) ~ -Zó77 = -0Z4
T×Z 70
Dimono :
Y' ~ niIoi frend yonq difoksir.
o ~ 3ó3,b ~ niIoi frend periode dosor I994-I99b.
b ~ -0,Z4 ~ penurunon per ] fohun secoro Iinier.
x ~ unif ] fohun yonq di hifunq dori x ~ 0.
38
· Denqon Pumus Y' = u + b×
· Moko dopof di cori MiIoi Trend fohun I99Z (30 Juni I99Z
ofou I JuIi I993) men¡odi :
Y' ~ 3o.I83,b + (-I.8I0,Z4) (-b)
~ 3o.I83,b + 9.0bI,Z
~ 4b.Z34,7
· Don niIoi frend fohun I997 (30 Juni I997 ofou I JuIi I997)
men¡odi :
Y' ~ 3o.I83,b + (-I.8I0,Z4) (+b)
~ 3o.I83,b - 9.0bI,Z
~ Z7.I3Z,3
39
"Mefode rofo-rofo berqerok"
(Movinq overoqe)
Terboqi Men¡odi Z :
· Pofo-rofo berqerok sederhono.
· Pofo-rofo berqerok ferfimbonq.
40
Pofo-rofo berqerok
sederhono.
Mefode yonq serinq diqunokon unfuk merofokon
deref berkoIo yonq berqeIombonq odoIoh mefode
rofo-rofo berqerok.
Mefode ini dibedokon ofos dosor ¡umIoh fohun
yonq diqunokon unfuk mencori rofo-rofonyo. Jiko
diqunokon 3 fohun seboqoi dosor pencorion rofo-
rofo berqerok, feknik fersebuf dinomokon Pofo-
rofo 8erqerok per 3 fohun.
4I
Prosedur menqhifunq rofo-rofo berqerok
sederhono per 3 fohun berfuruf-furuf :
I. JumIohkon dofo seIomo 3 fohun berfuruf-furuf . HosiInyo
di Iefokon di fenqoh-fenqoh fohun fersebuf.
Z. 8oqiIoh denqon bonyoknyo fohun fersebuf (3) unfuk
mencori niIoi rofo-rofo hifunqnyo.
3. JumIohkon dofo berikufnyo seIomo 3 fohun berfuruf-furuf
denqon meninqqoIkon fohun yonq perfomo. HosiInyo
diIefokon di fenqoh-fenqoh fohun fersebuf don boqiIoh
denqon bonyoknyo fohun fersebuf (3) don seferusnyo
sompoi seIesoi.
4Z
Confoh Iosus
Pofo-rofo berqerok Sederhono:
Tohun Horqo JumIoh berqerok
seIomo 3 fohun
Pofo-rofo berqerok
per 3 fohun
I994
I99b
I99o
I997
I998
I999
3.I79
9.3II
I4.809
IZ.Zb7
I0.Z38
II.I43
Z7.Z99
3o.377
37.304
33.o38
9.099,o7
IZ.IZb,o7
IZ.434,o7
II.ZIZ,o7
43
Pofo-rofo berqerok
ferfimbonq.
· Umumnyo, fimbonqon yonq diqunokon boqi rofo-rofo
berqerok ioIoh ko-efisien binominoI. Pofo-rofo berqerok
per 3 fohun horus diberi ko-efisien I,Z,I seboqoi
fimbonqonnyo.
· Prosedur menqhifunq rofo-rofo berqerok ferfimbonq per
3 fohun seboqoi berikuf :
I. JumIohkon dofo fersebuf seIomo fiqo fohun berfuruf-furuf
secoro ferfimbonq.
Z. 8oqiIoh hosiI pen¡umIohon fersebuf denqon fokfor pemboqi
I+Z+I ~ 4. hosiInyo diIefokon di fenqoh-fenqoh fohun
fersebuf.
3. Don seferusnyo sompoi seIesoi.
44
Confoh Iosus
Pofo-rofo berqerok Terfimbonq:
Tohun Horqo JumIoh berqerok
Terfimbonq seIomo 3
fohun
Pofo-rofo berqerok
Terfimbonq per 3
fohun
I994
I99b
I99o
I997
I998
I999
3.I79
9.3II
I4.809
IZ.Zb7
I0.Z38
II.I43
3o.oI0
bI.I8o
49.boI
43.87o
9.IbZ,b0
IZ.79o,b0
IZ.390,Zb
I0.9o9,00
4b
Iuktuusi kurvu
Rutu-rutu berqeruk dun Tertimbunq
per 3 tuhun
0
b000
0000
b000
Z0000
Zb000
4 b ó 7
Rutu-rutu
sederhunu
Rutu-rutu
tertimbunq
Hurqu
4o
SEIIAM SEIIAM SEIIAM SEIIAM
TEPIMA IASIH TEPIMA IASIH
47

!#$%$  !  $ #% # 

3,8, 070907,,
!03079,3 3,8, 070907,, 

3,8,%703$0:07

!034,,3,9, 070907,, 

094/0 #,9,
7,9, /,3 094/0:,/7,932:2 

094/0;07,0 0707,$0/07,3, /,3%0792-,3 

0-07,5,!03079,3 070907,,
W ,9,,3/:25:,3/,7,9:0,9::39:203,2-,7,3 50702-,3,38:,9:0,9,3 50702-,3,3574/:8 ,7, ,8 503:,,3 :2,503/:/: :2,0.0,,,3 :2,0,,9,3 /8- $07,3,,3, 
,',7,-0,3/8:8:3-07/,8,7,3,9: $07,3,,3,84-807;,8,3907/7/,7;,7,-0/,3 207:5,,3,9:,3-0707,80.,7,807,,2/,30,7,,3 8,2,/,7,9:,3,25,:0,9:,3203/,9,3 2,, 807,3,,3/,9,,3907/7/,7/,9,8/,3207:5,,31:38 /,7/3,2,,3/0709-07,, %20$0708 ,9,:/,9,89478 8947.,/,9,

W W 

8$ '.8#..7.3/42.7-.7. %07/7/.8:82 '.4254303070907.7.3 W W W W %703/$0:07 '..

#08/:  .

3.9/ .3 .5.809.3507239.78%703/$0:07.039:!07:-.3..33:2:23.9:07.3804.3.9.3...3 04342 49.3  %703/$0:07 .3...8  50702-.3 8.. .5.:0-/.3.3 8.9-07:3.:3.9.3.2.3/8-                             .9.3 -07.3 -070.7. $0-. 4.4254303070907..:39:202-:.205:9 07.:342-..3.3.. :3.9: .7  9.3.9 7. %703/5079:2-:.2.2-.7.3./.:203:7:3 %70380/02.2-.3/.7.33/:897/.203.3/.3203::08.0789.3.03/07:3..

7./.3 -.82:82/.7.:7.8:82.3 -.:3809.77..2.7 %703/  8.3 .3.30- 809.2 -/.3-07:.7.39: 80-09:3. 907..3... .7./3.92030-.3 .. '.7.3 :.7.9:780.30-.380.8...3438:28 /.380/02.-07.8. -.:3 07..3503:.                  .7.7.7.9:.7. 43/8.-.7.3574/:8 ..2/.9:07.3 907.7 ..

9:9079039: 809.9/.:3/.2.9:720303.0- -8.9.354.38-8.::39:/.3 02.3.205:91. '.0-/...0- 5.8549/.042-. .3-07.8$.3.2.73007/8- 07.9:.:-8.3.:3.9.3.907:..7.80 502:. 8.38:380.5 9.8 3202507.3$$025:73.7.33.9:.7809.5073..2.83-07.3.9..39/.9.9.7.907:.80 1.2/..3:.:.:3 9.907.0-9/.3.3/.9:7 -07..89:.:3.2:7.38090.38..:3.3 02:3/:7.3907.:$:8.3/.39703/. '..3  07.3.. :2:23.

70808 /05708  .

..3-07-0/.3.3..3/42/03.9.3507/.7.3.-:2  507:-..8#./.309.01.37 025.2.88902.3907.307.3.7:0..9:.3401.39/.354.5.89:803/7  .91:9:./:9/03.3 0..3/ !07-0/.7.-.9:207:5.3 /80-..7.5.9:7/.7.-.3549 50244./.3  5073/:897.8 80-0:23.3.90709.9  9/..3 0:.5/.3/8- $03. /80-...3/42 .3.39.947  07.9 /5077.3 .. 202503.34050507.3 -.3 8.383.3.9..9...87.3..9470-09:. '.

7:8/.9.9/:3......90780-:9 /.9!07-...207:5.9::.3.82:82/.3-...2.3-0-07.9.8.-202507..5.3.9.:.38079. 9703/80:07 .3.7.3  !07:-..9. ..  .3/3.9. 070907.3.!034..3  '.380-0:2/.3.3-. 9039.9..8.3. 50308:.3..9.  !07:-. !02.:.5.8.3/.7.3!03/:/:  $.399.8!03..91/0709-07.3/.38 !034.7.3..7.

/0709-07.9: -:.9.: .3.9/:3...3../.3.3:2.9.720250740 .28.390780-:9/./.:503:.503:.3.3.3 W $0-0:2/.-203.5:2./.3 50308:..5.9.8/..9/.3/8-:2:23...8..3.8!03.'..8.7:2..438:28..2-:.3-.7   .3  .3:9.7/.3..3 !0308:.3.7/.7..3202-..5.9:-:.3438:28 503:....3..3507.9.3/03.3.3907.3-078.7/.3.3.9.438:28-:... 502.:.9039./.2 8. 9::.3 /03.3.3-:..9. /808:.

7.7 .9.  0709-07.9.7.8/.3.!07:-.9039.7503.3... ./.8/.3  4348-.8.8. /.3.7507:-.:39:203.3.3..-0-.3-.318..3/03.-079::.574/:8 .3..33/08./8-.9...8.9::.3503:.8.83..:.5..3808:.7:8//01.9. .5..8. .7: 1:9:.2-.3.91.3/0709-07. 507:-.3.3 503/.7..7.. W ..7:8 //01.7..3.3-0-.3.32039.  ./0709-07.3 203:3. 80-0:2/.399.3.907/7/.7.7 1:9:.3.9/:3.

:438:28507.:1:9:..98. .3:2. 80/02.5.39:5039380.05. 909.9..3:2.307.3203:7:3..3!03/:/: W /.3:38:7507:-.574/:8.59.3203.3507.03..59.59..23.!07:-. !079:3..:438:28.39: 80-09:3..574/:8 .80/02.3574/:83.3.202.3320309..507.3.5507 .9/.703.203:3:.703. 503/:/: 3.59../03.8:.90..  .39: .7:8/-.8 574/:8507..9.80/02. 503/:/:0-..3 503/:/://.574/:8 /.  .59. 9.3.2..

./.7.40 -0-07.8.7..9!07-.38. 89..3 !03:3.8:2-07 . /.380-.80.20303.2..9..:.89..3/:3.9.9. W $02:.35.9/:3.8:2-07507:/808:. 50309.3 .9.8.8:2-07/.40-0-07.9.3/3./.-09:-09:80-.2.3907./.3.3/.5.3507-..7 0/:.9.3.3-07-0/.3.3/3  ..3-07-0/.3-07-0/. 50308:.-07-0/.507:80...8:2-07/.$..380-0:2 /./.3507-0/..7:83.5 507:2:8.3.9./0709-07.3  .5.2 0807.389...8.3/.3203./.3 !07:2:8.3/3.5.

9-.7.5..3 503:2.3.3.7.203../0709-07.3503...3.5027.5.7.3.207:5.9.7...91 /.9.9207:5.8..:8.3.3.907/72.8507.43.8.  .3 2:95.7:42543033...: 42-3.80.9...3 5./0709-07. ..9..0-07./0709-07.3.03843. /.3507.79703/80:07 .91:3.7.802:.9.87./0709-07.4254303/0709-07. ./.://.8.3/42 %/../.8 507..3. 04342-0780503/.//91 03.8.3 2094/0.3/..7...9.3-.3..9:.7:82:95.3.7.. /.3 /./0709 -07..8/. .74254303 42543033.8 -0781.3. W $0.5.3.2 !03.5.2807-:8.82:82  ..9/..8.39039.88/.02:33.7:4254303/.

%#$&#  .

7 ./2. 3.3:3.8 3./0709 -07./.203::7/85078 /0..3..3 1470...3/.425079/.220..3 343 307.2../.380-.39703/:..54254303 4254303.7: 9703/907.7. -079::..3...893  .7%703/$0:07 W .4394 5079:3...79703/ 3.2-..2/0709-07.489!0... W !03..789703/307/..7.20309503.2-..:.3/.789703/307 W !03.8:/.3507..2/:3.789703/.3:3.380-:.4394 .789703/-07-039:307 -.2-:: -::908./.  W %703//:3.3203:3:.3:7.33.9::7.7 #00/ W .

 802 ..98 094/0 :.3.7.!03:3.3...9. 7.#.7.902.5.789703/80.0 094/050307.9232:2  0.5.7830780.2.8 094/0 $0903.07.3 %703/$0:07307 W W W W 094/050307.-0-./7..9.8986:.70  .

07.094/0$02.0 .

3/0709-07...5/..9.9.2-.7..203.5.3 :2./0709-07..  .7.907903.03.3 ..907903.3425430304254. %07/7-0-07.    :2..33.9. .5/.9.2503.97033.8:8/.9.203.. 7.03...342543030425403.5 :2.7..7.3.

3/./0709-07.7.9.7.:39079039:/.//:./0709-07.9.3 203:2.9.9703/     04254.33. 802.9703/307:39:9.504254 .9..9/7:2:8.07.!7480/:7503.9.5..33.504254/03..0 &39:203039:. -07:9  .2.9:39.3.:3 9.33.9. 7...504254:39: 20250740 7.04254/03.7.38. 9:3802949.3 :2..380-.9..203.. 7.

2-.5074/0/.8..39703/9.8.8.5074/0/.9./.380.9703/5074/09079039: .7.04254  - 5079.:  . 3.7-07.7   .9.8/.7-07.9..7  .7.8..9703/5074/0/.#:2:8 ./.3/9:3 .9. 7.:3. -  3.5./.5.04254  ./.

3/9:3/..5074/0.5074/0  /...:3.7.39.0042540  /.2.802.3 /2.  3  :2.:399.0 042545079.3.7.7.8..3802.7  .75074/0/.35074/0   :2.

342543030425403.07.3 $02 $02 %49.5/.:3 !0780/..9.03.%.8:8 :2.0 %703/ .5 %.4394.. .:3                                                        .

3 3.3:.9.9. .3%703/. 7..   -     .7 0802-07 $0/. - !079:3.33.9.7.5074/0/.8.802.7..:.7.9703/ ..:3 .7.3.7.9.W W .%.8  207:5.: .70802-07 #:2:8 .8.07.9.3. 7.004254 ..7.  207:5.004254 -.802.5074/0/.9703/.9..9.07..3:.7.7.

9703/./...:3./.3 .  ...             9....:-8.              . .9../.:3.9703/.7/03..9.3.   -  .

:3 !0780/.9.03. ..:3                                                                       .8:8 :2.3425430304254.5/..07.0 %703/ .3 $02 $02 %49.3 %.%.4394.

9..8..9.5074/0/..9.7  :3 - !079:3.9..7. .   207:5.%.W W ..   -     .9703/. 9703/.8. .8  207:5.004254 .3.7.:3 #:2:8 .5074/0/.802. 7.3%703/.3.07.. 7.7 :3 $0/.004254 -.7.33.33.07.802.7.9.

      .9...9703/.:3..  .3./.

:3.9.   -  ..:-8.3 . .7/03./.9703/..        9.      ../....

         .

907903.9.0/..3203..35074/09.:38079.7.7./03.3.29. /0709-07..907903.8:./0709-07.35074/09..3..3.7. /0709-07.3..2./0425./0709-07.3./03./-. -  3   :2.3.3 8.:38079.202./04254.....3203...504254 -  3   .2.3 /.8:8:2.3 8.3.  :2.203../-.

.709 943                 $02 %49.3.%.0 %703/ . %.03.:3                                            ..07.4394.3 .7.8:8 :2.3070907.:3        ..%07903.9. $02 .

3%703/.. 9703/5074/0/.33.W W .    -       .004254 -.8   207:5.802.8.9.004254 ..3..07.7 :3 $0/.%.. ..8.9703/5074/0/.    207:5.802.7 :3 - !079:3..:3 #:2:8 . .07.3.33.

         .   .:3./..9703/...3.9.

.9703/./.9.7/03...    -   .           9../...3 .         . .:-8.:3.

           .

%07903.  %.070907.07.03.8:8 :2...709 943                              $02 %49. %. $02 .7.4394.:3                                            .3 ..0 %703/ .2-.:3 .9.

3.004254 -.8.8    207:5.        .33.    .33.7.. 9703/5074/0/.7.802.: 082-07 - !079:3.:3 #:2:8 .8..07.%.004254 .: 0802-07  $0/.3:.7.07.9703/5074/0/.802. .9. .7.W W .     207:5.3%703/..9.3...3:.9..

.    ..   .:-8..3 .9.                    9... .9703/..9./..   .3./.9703/../. .                     .7/03.:3.:3.

094/00./7..9%070.89$6:.70 :.

9703/9.3 .87.7 23: -:.9.2.-0.9: .38073/:3.3.78%703/.9703/5.  .  c 3 - c c 03...:3 W  ..39.33.8.7 - 7.2.:3/.59. 5079:3./.3:39:207..3  9.32:2 W W W W 094/035.3. - ..9703 .33.9.9.3.30-909 !078..3/.703.7.. 7.7.3/.:3  .5079:2-:.

3907903..9:8....:.:2.W &39:20.30   /83.91 . .:39 :39.9./. 7.7.. /-.7..9. 7.39.32.7.9.9:.9../:...:.30.8 /-079./-079.8.33.3/.9:3.7./507:...9:  803.54891  .:2.34c W ../.3.4394         .-0. 3.9:/-073...83. .8./.3/.-0.9:.:3  2.4-807.3 - /.. 9079039:5.35079:3.4-807.9.3.9: 4-807.8 .

.709 943                                                                                                .4394. .3 %039:. .:3 :2.8:83 /..2.39703/307 :2.9.709 943 %.3!078.

:3.3.9703/.  3./.9/. c      3 - c         c 2.:380.7/03.39.8.3 .7 -   503:7:3.87 .3/9:3/.35079..7.  3...3.W 4389.3/9. /.9703/5074/0/.307 :399.5.7  .

3#:2:8 .:3203.%703/9.9/../                     ./.W W 03.7..33.9703/9./                    W . - .5.:3203.

..3  3...91 .. 9:3.33.8 /-079.3/..:3 2.3 - /.4-807.8303.:2.9:.5 W .8:83 /.7.9:  803.3/.9.-0. .9:/-073.9.5.7.9.32. .7./:..3..34c W .30    ( .3203.9..54891  .30.9:.303./..7./0709-07.280/9507:-..3.35079:3.5  503039:.:2.. 03.8.202:2./:.9.3907903.:./507:. /-.. 7.3 W &39:20....9.9... 9079039:5./-079./.:.39.7.8.4807./.-0. ..

03.709 943                                                                                        .3!078.8:83 /...5 %039:.4394.:3 :2.39703/307 :2.2.709 943 %.9..

7  -    503:7:3.7  .87 .:3.8..W 4389..7.3 .3/9:3/.3/9.7/03.3507 9.39.5.3.:380.9703/5074/0/. /.307 :39 9..9/.9703/./.3.   3.  3. c       3 - c        c 2.

5./.W 03.33.::  203.7.:: 203.%703/9./                     .9.:3  :3 .:3  :3...9703/9.9/. - W .9.3#:2:8 ./                    W .

094/07.-0707.-0707.03. 4. W #. 7.3  .9.9.07.3. 7.9.90792-.0 %07-.9.-0707.9.80/07.3.. 7.9./ W #.

7.9./.9.7:2.. .9.9.9.8/.38073/:3.3:39:207.-0707. 80/07.39.3#.9.:3  .9..9.7503.2094/0 7. /:3.0707.5079.3. 7.-0707./.:3 ..9.2..#.-0707.... 094/03/-0/.77.9. 7. 7.3..7.8.9. 7.3:39:203.3-07042-.3. 90390780-:9/3..9.3 /0709-07.:380-. 094/0.3...37.9.3/:3..8.

5079.9.3-..2.2. 7.  .3-.:390780-:9 . :2.39.3. 903.:3-079:7:9 9:7:9 .9..3/903.35079..8008. 80/07.9.3/.9.9.9.80.32033.-07:93./03.9.3.:3-079:7:9 9:7:9     :2.3. /09.!7480/:72039:37..9.3. .3/.3/903.9.:390780-:9  :39: 203.83... 7.:390780-:9  /..9.3-.9:33. 903.73.80.7..3.83.9.-0707.:3-079:7:9 9:7:9 /03.25.380907:83. /09.2.:390780-:9/. 8.9.:3. /03.

4394. 5079. 7.9.:3                                          .:3 #.9.7. 80. %.9.:3 .9.-0707.2.$0/07.8:8 #.3.9. :2.-0707. 7.-0707.

 5079.3/. 92-. 90792-. 7.3/:3.9.9..7.:3 90780-:9 .-07:9   :2.. 903.9..:3.9.390780-:9/03.9.:380-.3..9. 92-.2.25.:3-079:7:9 9:7:9 80.    .90792-..3..4 01803-3423.#.3 .380907:83.7..-0707.9.8008.-0707. 7.8503:2.. !7480/:72039:37..3507 9. W   .83.7:8/-074 01803  80-.90780-:980..9.9.3.8. #..947502-. 7.3-.9.3 W &2:23. 7.31./09.90792-. -0707.33.3/903.9.-0707.9.

7.380. 7.3507 9.9. :2. 9. 7.2.:3 #.9.4394.:3                                        .-0707. %0792-.3 %.-0707.%0792-.9.-0707.:3 .8:8 #.9. %0792-.

90792-..3%0792-.7.:9:.:3             #.3 5079. .9.9./.9.3.3 . 80/07. #. 7.9. #.9.-0707.8:7.9. 7. 7.

$ %#$  .

You're Reading a Free Preview

Mengunduh
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->