Nguyn nh C
Vin Dn s v cc vn x hi
i hc Kinh t quc dn
Tp H Ch Minh, 11-2010
1/1993
QUAN IM 1:
CNG TC DS-KHHG L MT B
PHN QUAN TRNG TRONG CHIN
LC PHT TRIN T NC, L
MT TRONG NHNG VN KINH T
-X HI HNG U NC TA, L
MT GII PHP CH YU NNG
CAO CHT LNG CUC SNG CA
TNG NGI, TNG GIA NH V
TON X HI
Cu hi 3:
V sao Trung ng ng li t
v tr ca cng tc DS-KHHG
cao nh vy?
T 1993 n nay ng v Nh
nc lun lun quan tm lnh o
v ch o cng tc DS-KHHG
Ngh quyt s: 47-NQ/TW ngy 23 thng 02 nm 2005
B Chnh tr v tip tc y mnh thc hin chnh
sch dn s v k hoch ho gia nh ra 2 Mc tiu
sau:
S QUAN TM CA QUC HI
NM 2003 QUC HI BAN HNH
PHP LNH DN S
CC CHIN LC CA CHNH PH
Chin lc Dn s - KHHG, giai on 19932000
Chin lc Dn s Vit Nam, giai on 2001
2010
Chin lc Dn s, sc khe sinh sn Vit
Nam, giai on 2011 2020
(ang trnh Th tng)
Cu hi th t t ra l:
V sao gn 20 nm qua ng v
Nh nc ta li quan tm vn
dn s nh vy?
DN S V PHT TRIN:
NHNG VN NI BT HIN NAY
1. Qui m dn s.
Qui m dn s ca mt vng lnh
th (mt a phng, mt nc hay
mt chu ...) l tng s dn sinh
sng trn vng lnh th ti mt
thi im nht nh.
Vn 1: Quy m dn s ln, mt dn s
rt cao.
Vo thi im 1-4-2009, Vit Nam c 85,8 triu ngi, l nc ng
dn th 13 trn th gii, mt ln n 259,02 ngi/km2. Ch c 4
nc dn s nhiu hn v mt cao hn VN
Nc
S dn
Mt GDP bnh
(triu ng (ng
qun
2
i)
i/km )
(USD/ngi)
n
Bng-lat
1182,2
162,2
127,4
392,20
1165,34
339,11
328,59
SOURCE: Worldbank & CIA World Factbook 2009
259,02
Tng iu tra Dn s 1-4-2009
2.946
1.135
34.129
3.513
2.787
Vn 1: Quy m dn s ln, mt dn
s rt cao (tip)
Bng 1: Nhng nc c Dn s ln hn nhng mt nh hn Vit Nam (nm
2009)
STT
Nc
S dn
Mt
GDP bnh
(triu ngi) (ngi/km2)
qun
Pakistan
169,8
226,52
2.538
Nigeria
154,7
163,85
2.099
Trung Quc
1338,1
143,53
5.971
Indonesia
231,4
131,55
3.994
Mexico
107,6
57,83
14.570
Hoa K
309,5
33,53
46.350
Brazil
193,1
23,50
10.304
Nga
141,9
8,24
15.923
Mt dn s ca cc nc c thu
nhp cao ($5000/ngi) nm 2009
Mt
S
nc
T l
%
34
23
11
200250
Trn
250
Tng
s
18
95
Vn 2: Do tng dn s nn mc
d t mc sinh thay th
nhng Dn s vn tng mnh
Bng 2: S dn tng thm trung bnh hng nm trong
tng giai on
Thi k
S dn tng
thm
1945
1955
1955
1965
0,40
0,99
1965
1975
(Triu ngi)
1975
1985
1,26
1,23
1985
1995
1995
2005
1,21
1,11
Year
Bangladesh
Vietnam
France
1950
43 595
27 367
41 832
42 898
50 771
1970
69 178
1980
90 397
53 317
53 950
1990
115 632
66 247
56 842
2000
140 767
77 617
59 128
2010
164 425
86 640
62 637
2020
185 552
98 011
64 931
2030
203 214
105 447
66 474
2040
215 339
109 986
67 473
2050
222 495
111 666
67 668
Vn 3: T l tr em gim mnh, t l dn s
trong tui lao ng v ngi cao
tui tng nhanh
Bng 4: C cu dn s Vit Nam theo
tui
Nm
1979
1989
1999
2009
2024
41,7
39,2
33,0
25,0
22,0
Tng
s
51,3
6,9
100
53,7
7,2
100
59,0
8,1
100
66,0
9,0
100
Ngun: TTDS 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009
65,0
13,0
100
TC NG CA KHHG N
GIO DC
7.744,8
7.029,4
6.860,3 6.908,0
THCS
5.204,6
6.259,1
6.616,7
6.152,0
5.803,3 5.163,2
THPT
1.382,0
2.301,2
2.761,1
3.075,2
3.021,6 2.840,9
Nu mi lp hc c 35 hc sinh, mi
phng hc, hc 2 ca th c th tit
kim khong 42.500 phng hc.
Bnh qun 18 hc sinh c 01 gio vin
dy trc tip (nh nm hc 2009-2010)
th c th tit kim 16,5 vn gio
vin ph thng.
Nu lng bnh qun khong
2.000.000 ng /thng/gio vin th
mt nm nh nc tit kim 3.960 t
ng.
Tiu THCS
hc
T l n
(%)
47,9
48,1
THPT
Trung cp
CN
i hc v Cao
ng mi
tuyn
49,5
51,96
51,09
1979
1989
1999
2009
2020
Tng s dn (triu)
52,742
64,375
76,325
85,789
99,003
P 15-59 (triu)
26,63
34,76
44,58
56,67
64,543
2,0
2,1
1,7
1,2
2,66
3,1
2,8
2,7
Ngun:
-Tnh ton t kt qu tng iu tra dn s 1979; 1989; 1999; 2009
-UB DSG&TE. D bo DS G&TE Nm 2005. H Ni 6-2006
Tng
s dn
(triu)
S ngi T l ngi
cao tui,
cao tui
(triu)
(%)
1979
53,74
3,71
6,9
1989
64,41
4,64
7,2
1999
76,32
6,19
8,1
2009
85,85
7,67
9,0
Cc Tnh
Hi Dng, Vnh Phc, Bc Ninh, Ngh An, H
Ni, Tha Thin Hu, Hi Phng, Ph Th, Bn
Tre, Bnh nh, Qung Tr, Thanh Ha, Qung
Nam, Hng Yn, Ninh Bnh, Qung Ngi,, Nam
nh, H Tnh, Thi Bnh, H Nam.
Tuyn
Quang,
Ha
Bnh,
Cn
Th,
Tr
Vinh,
Bc
T l NCT
Kn, Yn Bi, Nng, Hu Giang, Lng Sn,
8% < %NCT< 10% Khnh Ha, An Giang, ng Thp, Long An, Thi
(21 tnh)
Nguyn, Qung Ninh, Bc Giang, Vnh Long, Ph
Yn, Cao Bng, Tin Giang, Qung Bnh.
T l NCT t
8% tr xung
(22 tnh)
T L NCT CA CC
TNH NM 2009
Tnh c t l NCT
t 10% tr ln
Tnh c t l NCT:
8% < NCT < 10%
Tnh c t l NCT
t 8% tr xung
TH THAY I C CU DN S THEO
TUI: Dn s tui lao ng, dn s tui hc
sinh v dn s gi
Vn 4: S mt cn i gii tnh,
nhn chung dn dn thu hp.
Tuy nhin, i vi tr em v tr s
sinh s mt cn i gii tnh li c
du hiu nghim trng.
Bng 6: T s gii tnh
Nm
96,5
96,1
1960
1970
1979
1989
1999
2009
95,9
94,7
94,2
94,7
96,7
98,1
Vn 4: S mt cn i gii tnh,
nhn chung dn dn thu hp.
Tuy nhin, i vi tr em v tr s
sinh s mt cn i gii tnh li c
du hiu nghim trng. (tip)
T s gii tnh khi sinh
Bng 7: T s gii tnh ca tr s sinh Vit nam, (2001-2009)
Nm
iu tra DS-KHHG
109
107
104
108
106
110
108
107
107
108
109
109
109,4
110,6
SRB
T 115 tr ln
Rt cao
107-115
Cao
1.4.1999
1.4.2009
Gia Lai, H Ty, H Nam, HLo Cai, H Ni, Yn Bi, Thi Nguyn,
Giang, Ha Bnh, H Tnh, Ph Th, Vnh phc, Thi Bnh, Ninh
Nng, Khnh Ha, B Ra VngBnh, Thanh Ha, Qung Nam, Bnh
tu, Long An, Cn Th, C Mau,nh, Ph Yn, Ninh Thun, Bnh
Thi Nguyn, Qung Bnh, BnhThun, Lm ng, Ty Ninh; ng Nai,
nh, Tp.HCM, Bnh Dng, BnB Ra-VT, Tp HCM, Tin Giang, Tr
Tre, H Ni, Lng Sn, TuynVinh, Vnh Long, An Giang, Kin Giang,
Quang, Yn Bi. (22 tnh)
Cn Th, C Mau, H Nam; TT- Hu,
Khnh Ha, Bnh Phc, Bn Tre,
ng Thp, Hu Giang, Sc Trng, Bc
Liu. (35 tnh)
Lo Cai, Hng Yn, Bc Kn, TT-H Giang, Cao bng, Sn La, Lng
T 107 tr xung Hu, ng Nai, Ninh Bnh, NamSn, Ngh An, H Tnh, Qung Bnh,
nh,
Thi
Bnh,
Vnh
Phc,
Bc
Qung
Tr,
Nng,
Kon
Tum,
Gia
Lai,
Bnh thng
Giang, Bc Ninh, Ngh An, Qungc Lc, Bnh Dng, Bc Kn, Tuyn
Tr, Qung Nam, Qung Ngi, PhQuang, in Bin, Lai Chu, c Nng,
Yn, c Lc, Lm ng, TyLong An.
Ninh, Bnh Thun, ng Thp, (19 tnh)
Tin Giang, Vnh Long. (23 tnh)
SBR CA CC TNH
NM 2009
SRB 115
NGUYN NHN
NGUYN NHN SU XA (Vn ha)
NGUYN NHN C BN
Trnh pht trin kinh t, x hi
NGUYN NHN TRC TIP
- Nm 2005-2006 c ti 66% ph n
bit gii tnh thai nhi trc khi sinh
- No ph thai an ton
HU QU
V Dn s
V an ninh
V x hi
Vn 5: Dn s phn b khng
u. M hnh di dn thay i
(tip)
Nm 2009, trung bnh trn mi km
l hn km nhau n hn 23 ln!
Hn na, vn u t khng u. Giai on 19882007, NB & BSH chim 77.9%.
Vn 5: Dn s phn b khng
u. M hnh di dn thay i
(tip)
T di dn c t chc sang di dn t do
T di dn ng bng min ni sang di
dn nng thn th
Di dn quc t tng
Mc ch di dn a dng
6,1
Nm
TFR
3,5
2005
2,11
2,7
2006
2,09
4,2
19921993
19921996
1999
2,3
2007
2,07
4,0
2003
2,12
2008
2,08
3,8
2004
2,23
2009
2,03
4,8
+ T MC TIU CHIN LC
DN S, 2001-2010
+ MC TIU CA NGH QUYT 4,
KHA VII C THC HIN SM 10
NM
+ NGHA KT-XH- MT CA T
MSTT
S lng
T nhin
V trch nhim
B ng
Cht lng
Vn minh, k hoch
Trch nhim
Ch ng
TFR
TNH
TFR
Tp HCM
1,45
Kon Tum
3,45
Vnh Long
1,63
H Giang
3,08
Bnh Dng
1,70
Lai Chu
2,96
Cn Th
1,72
Gia Lai
2,88
Bc Liu
1,75
Qung Tr
2,85
C Mau
1,75
c Nng
2,72
Ty Ninh
1,79
Lo Cai
2,70
Sc Trng
1,79
H Tnh
2,46
BN NHM MC SINH
C s phn loi:
Mc sinh thay th ng vi TFR = 2.1
MC SINH
Thp
CH BO TFR
TFR 2.1
Trung bnh
Hi cao
Cao
MC SINH
Thp
TFR 2.1
1.4.2009
Hi Dng, Qung Ngi, H Ni, Thi Bnh, H Nam,
Bnh Thun, ng Nai, Ninh Bnh, Khnh Ha, B
Ra-Vng Tu, Ha Bnh, An Giang, Ph Yn, Hu
Giang, Bc Giang, Tin Giang, Thi Nguyn, Thanh
Ha, ng Thp, Lng Sn, Tr Vinh, Long An, Bc
Kn Kin Giang, Bn Tre, Ty Ninh, Sc Trng, Bc
Liu, C Mau, Cn Th, Bnh Dng, Vnh Long, Tp
H Ch Minh.
(33 tnh)
Trung bnh
Tha Thin Hu, Nam nh, Bnh nh, Qung Ninh,
2.1 < TFR 2.3 Cao Bng, Hi Phng, Nng, Vnh Phc, Hng
Hi cao
H Tnh, k Lk, Bnh Phc, k Nng, Ninh
2.3 < TFR 2.5 Thun, Yn Bi, Qung Bnh, Bc Ninh, Qung Nam.
(9 tnh)
Cao
TFR > 2.5
TFR CA CC TNH
NM 2009
Cc tnh c
TFR > 2,5
Cc tnh c
2,3 < TFR 2,5
Cc tnh c
2,1 < TFR 2,3
Cc tnh c
TFR 2,1
79.0
78.0
76.9
77
76.8
75.3
74
T l s dng
cc BPTT
hin i ti
1/4/2007 t
68,2% l t l
cao nht n
nay
75.7
73.9
71
68
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
QU DN S
Natural Population Growth Rate
Rate
CBR
CDR
Time
Vn 10:CHT
LNG DN S
TNG LN NHNG CHA CAO
S liu nm
HDI
Xp th
1992
(Bo co nm 1995)
0,539
120/174
1995
(Bo co nm 1998)
0,560
121/174
2000
(Bo co nm
2002)
2006
(Bo co nm
2008)
2007
0,688
109/173
0.718
114/179
0.725
116/182
H NI
n ht thng 6/2010 siu m SLTS
cho 38.420 ca, ly mu xt nghim cho
3.540 ca, trong c 01 ca nghi ng (+)
suy gip trng bm sinh, 164 ca (+) vi
bnh thiu men G6PD, thng bo kp
thi gia nh a tr n t vn v
iu tr ti bnh vin Nhi Trung ng.
(Hi ngh tng kt cng tc phng, chng SDD tr em nm 2009 v trin khai
cng tc nm 2010, ngy 23/1)
CHNH SCH CA NG V NH NC
QUAN TM VN CHT LNG DN S
Chin lc Dn s 2001 - 2010 c
mc tiu c th l:
n nm 2005: TFR = 2,1
n nm 2010: Quy m dn s di
88 triu v HDI > 0,7
S LN MANG THAI = S + S NO
10 =10 + 0
10 = 2 + 8
2=2+0
CH BO
1.
TFR
MC
TIU
2.1
THC HIN MC
2.09
(1.4.2006)
3.
HDI
2.1
2.77
Nm 2010 Ty Nguyn
(1.4.2007)
0.70-0.75
0.704
(2003)
CH BO
MC TIU
THC
HIN
MC
Tng s dn
88 triu
85,1549
(2007)
T l tng dn s
1.1%
1.13%
(1.4.2007)
CPR hin i
70 %
68.2%
(1.4. 2007)
IMR
25%0
16%0
(1.4.2006)
CH BO
MC TIU
THC
HIN
MC
Tui th
71
73.7
(2005. UNDP)
S nm i hc TB
9.0
9.6
(2006)
10
GDP
Tng gp 2
2.36
(2007/2000)
11
GDI
0.7
0.732
(2005)
CH BO
MC
TIU
THC
HIN
MC
12
T l SDD tr em
25 %
19.9 %
( Nm 2007)
13
T l h ngho
5%
16 %
( Nm 2006)
14
T l tht nghip th
5%
4.4%
( Nm 2007)
15
T l dn th
35-40%
27.44%
( Nm 2007)
CH BO
MC
TIU
THC
HIN
MC
16
S ca mi nhim HIV
Gim
Gim nh
t
(nm 2005)
17
18
19
40%
30%
CH BO
20 MMR
21 ng k dn s
22 p ng nhu cu
thng tin dn s
23 Di dn t do c
ng k
24 T l tr em
b d tt
MC
THC HIN MC
TIU
70/100.00 165/100.000
(2007)
0
50+
n.a
n.a
100%
n.a
n.a
75%
n.a
n.a
Gim
n.a
n.a