MBA

Master of Business Administration (International Centres)

EXPLORING THE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

ASSIGNMENT
(October 2011 September 2012)

Issued September 2011

THE EIBE ASSIGNMENT

Introduction
Prior to commencing this assignment you should acquaint yourself with the Strategic Management for Sustainable Success (SMSS) module outline in the MBA Course Handbook, with particular regard to the aims, objectives and outcomes of the EIBE course. There are two separate assignments comprising the total EIBE course assessment: (1) a scenario planning exercise carried out as a group activity; (2) an individual reflective assignment.

1. Scenario Planning Group Exercise (80% of the EIBE assessment).

This is a real-world scenario planning exercise which you will undertake as part of a group using the intuitive logics scenario planning process methodology outlined in chapter 7 of the book The Sixth Sense. In undertaking this exercise your group will progress through the EIBE Workbook which provides the framework for the assignment submission and details the process you should follow, contains instructions and guidance notes, and includes templates of the sheets to be used to record the investigation process and analysis which culminate in the development of a scenario set. As a starting point, all scenario work generally necessitates a context which incorporates a client in one form or another, a focal issue of concern to the client to explore in the scenarios, and a horizon year which delimits the period the scenario exploration covers.

The Scenario Client

The client is the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The ADB is a regional development bank modeled on the World Bank established in 1966 to facilitate economic development and eradication of poverty in the countries of Asia and the Pacific. The ADB provides loans and equity investments to its developing member countries (DMCs), technical assistance and training for the planning, execution and monitoring of development projects and programs, and promotes and facilitates private sector investment and public-private development initiatives.

The Assignment Brief

According to an ADB study in 2010, while the Asian region experienced more than double the global annual GDP growth rate over the past 3 years, 14 of the 20 developing Asia and Pacific region economies witnessed an increase in their Gini coefficients i.e. a widening of income and non-income disparities. If the region is to fulfil its vast potential and reduce the disparities, substantial investments are required in the developing economies over the next 15 years in health and education, social protection, gender equality, infrastructure development, and environmentally sustainable and inclusive growth to benefit as many as possible. In light of this report, the ADB is undertaking a review of their 2027 strategic plan for the Central & West Asian DMCs. As part of this review, they have asked your group to develop an in-depth set of scenarios covering a period of 15 years to the year 2027, for one of the six DMC countries listed below, to elicit new ideas, challenge and push the thinking of those involved in business and policy in the region, and to raise crucial questions about the strategic decisions that will shape the future of the country: Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

To achieve this you need to select one of the countries from the list and develop a set of wide-ranging but plausible scenarios, each scenario depicting how the country might evolve in a particular way over the next 15 years. The number of scenarios to be developed depends on the group size: A group of 5-6 students must produce 4 scenarios. A group of 3-4 students must produce a minimum of 3 scenarios. A group of less than 3 students must produce a minimum of 2 scenarios. The organising or focal question the scenarios need to address is: How will the particular country you have selected develop over the next 15 years to the year 2027?
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Each scenario must be anchored in the present (2011/2), and through the medium of an engaging but plausible storyline, should describe the key events which unfold over the next 15 years, culminating in a different depiction of what the country looks like in each scenario in the horizon year 2027. Developing a set of plausible, compelling scenario storylines alone is however insufficient; to be of value to the ADB the scenario planning exercise must include: Evidence of substantial research (including interviews with remarkable people) and rigorous analysis underpinning the scenarios, which includes an appropriate balance in the range of global, regional and local environmental factors considered. A clearly defined end state for each scenario, the end states for each scenario being differentiated by more than merely minor variations around a particular theme. A set of key events in each scenario representing crucial developments in the environment, linked through causal reasoning and their temporal sequence, which define the path for each scenario from 2010/11 through to the end state in 2027. The implications inherent in each scenario with particular regard to health, education, gender imbalance, infrastructure and environmentally sustainable development, and the significance of these implications to the ADB and its 2027 strategic plan for the country. Important: Note that the EIBE course is strictly concerned with scenario planning as a tool for making sense of the contextual environment and factors that will shape its development in particular ways in the future, the objective being to determine the implications this will have with respect to organisational strategy development. However the EIBE assignment must not enter into the arena of strategy development (this will come later in the SMSS module). Thus while it is imperative that the implications inherent in the scenarios developed are brought to the attention of the ADB, there should be no discussion in the assignment as to how the ADB should address these implications in developing their 2027 strategy for the country.

Some important points to note about this assignment:

The assignment constitutes 80% of the total EIBE assessment. The assignment is to be undertaken as a group assignment with a group of size of 4-6 students. o The maximum group size is strictly limited to 6 students; the lower limit group size is 4 students, but may be less if specific circumstances warrant it. o In exceptional circumstances and with prior approval, a student may be permitted to undertake the assignment on an individual basis. There is no designated word limit for the scenario exercise group assignment but do not include all research material accessed merely to bulk up the assignment. On completion of the assignment, each member of the group is required to complete a Peer Assessment form evaluating the contribution made by each group member (excluding yourself) to the team work in undertaking the assignment. The composite average peer assessment total for each student will then be applied to the group assignment mark, which depending on the totals, may result in the students in a group receiving different marks for the assignment. Please ensure that you have read the section on peer assessment in the MBA Course Handbook before completing the peer assessment for the group assignment.

Assignment Submission Requirements

The groups must follow the prescribed process in the EIBE Process Workbook, documenting their progress and reflections at appropriate intervals. If a group deviates from the process, an explanation for the reasoning underlying the deviation(s) must be included in the assignment. The workbook and the exercise sheets which are downloadable from the Intranet and contain detailed instructions on use, must be submitted in paper form and must include the following: Completed exercise sheets covering two iterations of the scenario process.

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 Summary notes on the content of consultations with remarkable people and learning from key data accessed. The scenario storyline for each scenario as it unfolds over time (in either a story and/or diagrammatic format) which should incorporate key events and their interrelationship over time. The implications for the ADB of the developments in each scenario. A references list of research materials/data used in the scenario development process necessary to support the exercise sheets and scenarios. Completed Peer Assessment forms for each group member. These forms must not be bound in with the group assignment, but submitted separately by group members in sealed envelopes to preserve the anonymity of the assessments.

2. Individual Self-reflection Assignment (20% of the EIBE assessment).

On completion of the group assignment you are required to submit an individual 900 word assignment reflecting on your learning from having undertaken the scenario group exercise.

The Assignment Brief

The assignment asks you to reflect on your learning from having undertaken the scenario exercise and must include a brief discussion on the three elements below: A skill or tool which you have newly identified and/or practiced for the first time in the scenario process, the value you see in this skill/tool and how you might use them in the workplace (200300 words). A new idea which arose from the scenario process and which challenged or developed your thinking in new ways (200-300 words). A brief critique of the scenario process as undertaken by your group which could be either observations about the process in terms of what part(s) of it did or did not work well and why you think this is, or a discussion on the working/behaviour of the group throughout the process (200300 words). Self-reflection is important because it is an integral part of the process of turning experience into learning. By pausing at the end of a course and examining your thoughts and questioning what new skills or ideas you learnt, what in terms of group work and process worked and what did not, and perhaps what you have learnt about yourself, ensures that you continue to evolve and progress in your learning as you proceed through the MBA programme. When writing you self-reflections be honest and try to summarize and synthesize what you have gained in personal learning having completed the scenario exercise.

Some important points to note about this assignment:

The assignment constitutes 20% of your total EIBE assessment. The assignment is strictly an individual assignment and permission will not be granted for the assignment to be undertaken on a group basis. The assignment has a designated word limit and serious infractions of the limit will incur a penalty in the form of a reduction in the assignment mark.

Assignment Submission Requirements

The individual reflective assignments must be submitted separately from the scenario group assignment. Do not bind/incorporate the individual assignments in the group assignment.

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