ndice de Temas
Introduccin al Anlisis del Sector Externo
1. Comparativo Internacional sobre Indicadores Bsicos del
Sector Externo
2. La Influencia del Sector Externo sobre el Financiamiento del
Sector Pblico Mexicano
2.1 El Flujo de Recursos desde la ptica de la Balanza de
Pagos
3. El Anlisis de la Balanza de Pagos
3.1 Profundizacin sobre la Cuenta Corriente
3.2 Profundizacin sobre la Cuenta de Capital
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Balanza de Pagos
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
32,113.1 19,490.8 15,024.0 25,931.1 30,706.8 15,903.1 52,123.0 36,322.0 36,835.9 67,129.0
1,255.9 -4,213.3 -1,334.4 -1,372.0
Banca Comercial
-3,133.4 -2,960.6
2009
28,278.5 23,334.4 18,488.2 14,165.8 16,514.2 -2,011.4 22,090.9 27,242.3 18,852.6 36,016.8
Banca de Desarrollo
Banco de Mxico
2008
0.0
0.0
-529.2
0.0
-906.1 -2,279.8
0.0
0.0
-496.4
794.3
648.0
-27.7
9,583.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Inversin Extranjera
30,857.2 23,704.1 16,358.4 27,303.0 30,163.8 25,736.7 37,041.7 28,314.4 22,853.2 41,494.4
Inversin Directa
29,848.5 23,783.0 15,737.4 24,817.9 24,037.0 20,419.5 29,714.2 25,864.5 15,205.7 17,725.9
Inversin de Cartera
1,008.8
-78.9
Mercado Accionario
151.0
-103.6
Mercado de Dinero
857.8
24.7
Activos
En Bancos del Exterior
Inversin Directa de
Mexicanos
Crditos al Exterior
Garantas de Deuda Externa
Otros
641.3
- -9,079.7
- -31,112.3
11,765.2 14,192.6 17,914.5 30,032.1
17,983.3
-1,511.7 2,773.3 3,457.1 -5,579.3 -4,402.5 -6,148.3
- -5,791.1
- -20,758.4
17,045.6
14,849.0
-4,404.0 -890.8 -1,253.5 -4,431.9 -6,474.0 -5,758.5 -8,256.3 -1,157.1 -7,018.9 -12,694.0
0.0
190.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
90.8 1,717.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2,340.2
3,856.6 1,133.8
-1,775.6
46.0
millones de dolares
25,000.00
20,000.00
15,000.00
10,000.00
Endeudamiento
Mercado de Dinero
5,000.00
0.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-5,000.00
-10,000.00
-15,000.00
millones de dolares
10,000.00
5,000.00
Banca de Desarrollo
0.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Banco de Mxico
Sector Pblico No Bancario
-5,000.00
-10,000.00
-15,000.00
-20,000.00
Pidiregas
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Dic
Dic
Dic
Dic
Dic
Dic
Dic
Dic
Dic
Dic
Dic
Dic
Dic
Dic
Cuenta Corriente
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-7.2
-5.2
-5.1
-4.8
-9.0
-16.3
-6.3
-5.7
-5.8
-8.8
-7.6
-6.1
-10.1
-17.3
-4.6
-3.1
18.5
14.2
16.5
-2.0
22.1
27.2
18.9
36.0
15.7
24.8
24.0
20.4
29.7
25.9
15.2
17.7
9.5
4.1
7.2
-1.0
10.3
7.5
5.4
22.8
57.4
61.5
68.7
67.7
78.0
85.4
90.8
113.6
Cuenta Corriente
-1.0
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.9
-1.5
-0.7
-0.5
Cuenta de Capital
2.6
1.9
1.9
-0.2
2.2
2.5
2.1
3.5
Balanza de Pagos
Cuenta Corriente
Balanza Comercial
Cuenta de Capital
Inversin Extranjera Directa
Renta
Transferencias
Ao
Total
Total
Bienes
Servicios
Total
Intereses
Otros Total
Remesas
Otros
2000
100
93.06
85.98
7.08
3.21
2.69
0.52
3.73
3.51
0.22
2001
100
92.63
85.96
6.67
2.19
1.43
0.77
5.18
4.92
0.26
2002
100
92.61
86.13
6.48
1.94
1.23
0.71
5.45
5.20
0.25
2003
100
90.57
84.47
6.10
1.63
0.77
0.86
7.80
7.56
0.24
2004
100
89.82
83.78
6.04
2.19
0.87
1.33
7.99
7.77
0.22
2005
100
89.70
84.17
5.52
2.07
1.39
0.68
8.23
8.07
0.16
2006
100
89.67
84.04
5.63
2.05
1.77
0.28
8.28
8.14
0.14
2007
100
90.19
84.93
5.27
2.45
2.13
0.32
7.36
7.24
0.12
2008
100
89.49
84.08
5.41
2.20
1.86
0.34
8.31
8.17
0.13
2009
100
92.37
87.62
4.75
1.35
0.95
0.39
6.29
6.16
0.12
2010
100
93.11
89.33
3.78
1.26
1.05
0.21
5.63
5.54
0.09
Renta
Ut.
Interese
Reinv.
s
Transf
.
Sector
Pub.
Sector
Priv.
Total
8.13
8.91
0.79
2.05
6.07
3.45
2.62
0.02
8.11
8.12
1.01
1.57
5.54
3.15
2.39
0.02
8.85
6.08
0.84
0.32
4.92
2.29
2.63
0.02
8.95
5.26
0.51
0.26
4.49
2.57
1.92
0.03
8.77
4.37
0.46
0.12
3.79
1.96
1.83
0.09
7.67
5.73
1.23
0.53
3.97
2.22
1.75
0.02
7.35
5.39
0.84
0.67
3.89
2.01
1.88
0.03
6.97
5.68
1.22
0.19
4.26
2.35
1.91
0.04
7.38
5.20
0.50
0.15
4.55
2.71
1.84
0.12
8.06
6.94
4.87
6.02
1.01
1.87
0.16
0.25
3.70
3.90
2.16
2.44
1.55
1.45
0.01
0.01
Valor
% del PIB
Exportaciones
298361
27.15
Importaciones
301481
27.43
30211
2.75
271270
24.68
Bienes de Consumo
41422
3.77
Petroleras
12820
1.17
No petroleras
28602
2.60
229812
20.91
17390
1.58
212421
19.33
30246
2.75
Petroleras
No petroleras
Bienes Intermedios
Petroleras
No petroleras
Bienes de Capital
No
petrolera
s, 24.68
5%
11%
6%
78%
B
Consumo
Petroleros
B
Consumo
No
petroleros
B
Intermedi
os
Petroleros
Concepto
Saldo de la Cuenta Corriente
Ingresos
Egresos
Saldo de la Balanza Comercial
Saldo de la Balanza de Servicios
Balanza de servicios no
Factoriales
Saldo de Transportes diversos
Saldo de Turistas
Saldo de Excursionistas
Saldo de Otros servicios
Ingresos por servicios no
factoriales
Transportes diversos
Turistas
Excursionistas
Otros servicios
Egresos por servicios no
factoriales
Fletes y seguros
Transportes diversos
Turistas
Excursionistas
Otros servicios
Balanza de Servicios Factoriales
Intereses netos
Otros
Ingresos por servicios
factoriales
Intereses
Otros
Egresos por servicios factoriales
Intereses
Otros
Transferencias del exterior
Remesas familiares
Otras
Transferencias al exterior
Transferencias Netas
2000
-18,742.7
192,875.8
211,618.5
-8,337.1
-17,399.3
2001
-17,714.1
186,166.4
203,880.5
-9,616.7
-17,435.4
-2,323.4
-613.8
3,990.5
-1,195.4
501.8
-3,557.6
-823.4
3,770.9
-1,072.1
-789.9
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-14,155.3 -7,161.3 -5,237.4 -5,079.7 -4,801.5 -8,977.2 -16,349.2 -6,289.4 -5,690.0
188,139.8 196,878.9 226,504.6 257,603.1 298,426.5 323,617.1 342,539.1 271,410.4 340,784.2
202,295.1 204,040.3 231,742.0 262,682.8 303,228.0 332,594.3 358,888.3 277,699.8 346,474.2
-7,632.9 -5,779.4 -8,811.1 -7,586.6 -6,133.2 -10,073.7 -17,260.7 -4,601.9 -3,120.7
-16,790.9 -16,982.5 -15,188.8 -19,630.6 -24,617.2 -25,299.3 -24,550.8 -23,218.6 -24,073.6
-4,048.2
-847.2
3,947.0
-1,148.7
-1,591.5
-4,600.7
-817.6
4,416.7
-1,308.2
-2,398.6
-4,606.8
-765.3
5,154.9
-1,318.4
-2,227.9
-4,713.1
-962.8
5,492.9
-1,289.8
-1,459.3
-5,735.8
-771.1
5,366.1
-1,297.8
-1,615.2
-6,304.8
-1,059.2
5,633.1
-1,155.9
-1,425.8
-7,379.3
-1,152.3
5,913.0
-1,149.8
-989.8
-8,404.9
-1,241.3
4,900.1
-756.6
-3,797.3
-9,610.9
-1,434.0
5,325.2
-736.8
-4,042.1
13,712.3 12,660.3 12,691.6 12,532.9 13,955.1 16,066.3 16,221.1 17,489.3 18,039.9 14,767.2 15,442.6
1,369.3
1,282.1
1,142.5
1,112.6
1,361.9
1,753.0
1,912.3
1,929.5
2,312.2
1,613.7
1,455.9
6,435.4
6,538.4
6,724.7
7,251.7
8,382.2
9,146.3
9,559.4 10,340.2 10,817.0
9,221.2
9,893.9
1,858.8
1,862.2
2,133.3
2,110.0
2,413.3
2,657.1
2,617.1
2,511.7
2,472.0
2,054.0
1,978.0
4,048.8
2,977.6
2,691.0
2,058.6
1,797.6
2,509.9
2,132.3
2,707.9
2,438.7
1,878.4
2,114.9
16,035.7 16,217.9 16,739.7 17,133.7 18,561.9 20,779.4 21,956.9 23,794.2 25,419.2 23,172.1 25,053.6
5,006.4
4,643.1
4,407.8
4,492.9
5,450.2
6,494.0
7,417.7
8,297.0 10,000.3
7,509.8
8,723.2
1,983.1
2,105.5
1,989.8
1,930.2
2,127.2
2,715.9
2,683.5
2,988.8
3,464.5
2,854.9
2,889.9
2,444.9
2,767.5
2,777.6
2,835.0
3,227.3
3,653.5
4,193.3
4,707.2
4,904.1
4,321.1
4,568.7
3,054.2
2,934.4
3,282.0
3,418.3
3,731.7
3,946.9
3,914.9
3,667.6
3,621.8
2,810.6
2,714.8
3,547.0
3,767.4
4,282.5
4,457.2
4,025.5
3,969.1
3,747.5
4,133.7
3,428.6
5,675.7
6,157.0
-15,075.9 -13,877.8 -12,742.7 -12,381.8 -10,582.0 -14,917.4 -18,881.4 -18,994.4 -17,171.6 -14,813.7 -14,462.6
-8,670.4 -8,618.5 -9,130.8 -9,327.3 -9,011.1 -9,249.1 -8,979.6 -8,552.7 -8,686.2 -7,959.7 -8,844.8
-6,405.6 -5,259.3 -3,611.9 -3,054.5 -1,570.8 -5,668.4 -9,901.8 -10,441.7 -8,485.4 -6,854.0 -5,617.9
6,019.6
5,024.5
995.1
5,366.5
4,074.7
1,291.8
4,098.6
2,835.3
1,263.3
3,941.8
2,342.8
1,599.0
5,708.4
2,211.3
3,497.1
5,109.8
3,010.6
2,099.2
6,243.6
5,096.7
1,147.0
7,749.0
6,311.8
1,437.1
7,566.1
5,845.0
1,721.0
5,268.6
3,812.5
1,456.1
5,390.3
3,838.4
1,551.9
25,125.1
14,076.3
11,048.8
26,036.5
25,566.8
469.7
87.7
25,948.9
26,743.4
14,864.5
11,878.9
26,503.5
26,049.6
453.9
107.7
26,395.8
24,737.6
14,531.2
10,206.4
25,590.5
25,138.6
452.0
128.2
25,462.3
20,082.3
11,772.2
8,310.1
21,591.5
21,244.7
346.9
60.4
21,531.2
19,852.9
12,683.2
7,169.7
21,590.1
21,271.2
318.9
85.9
21,504.2
6.00
5.00
4.00
Ingresos
Egresos
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
(%)
1.5
1
0.5
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Cuenta de Capital
Registra las operaciones con el resto del mundo de una
economa para financiar la formacin de capital.
Comprende:
Prstamos
Inversiones
Pagos
Devoluciones
Variacin de Reserva monetaria
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Ingresos
Egresos
Cuenta de
Capital
Pasivos
Activos
Errores y
Omisiones
5, 809, 943.4
Variacin de
Reservas
Netas
7, 172, 600.0
-989, 200.0
7, 450, 200.0
5, 396, 800.0
Ajustes por
Valoracin
-8, 208.0
-13, 704.0
-25, 196.0
-12,. 132.0
-62, 963.0
-79, 222.8
Cuenta
Corriente
60,000,000.0
40,000,000.0
Cuenta de Capital
Pasivos
Activos
20,000,000.0
0.0
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
-20,000,000.0
-40,000,000.0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
32,113.1 19,490.8 15,024.0 25,931.1 30,706.8 15,903.1 52,123.0 36,322.0 36,835.9 67,129.0
1,255.9 -4,213.3 -1,334.4 -1,372.0
Banca Comercial
-3,133.4 -2,960.6
2009
28,278.5 23,334.4 18,488.2 14,165.8 16,514.2 -2,011.4 22,090.9 27,242.3 18,852.6 36,016.8
Banca de Desarrollo
Banco de Mxico
2008
0.0
0.0
-529.2
0.0
-906.1 -2,279.8
0.0
0.0
-496.4
794.3
648.0
-27.7
9,583.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Inversin Extranjera
30,857.2 23,704.1 16,358.4 27,303.0 30,163.8 25,736.7 37,041.7 28,314.4 22,853.2 41,494.4
Inversin Directa
29,848.5 23,783.0 15,737.4 24,817.9 24,037.0 20,419.5 29,714.2 25,864.5 15,205.7 17,725.9
Inversin de Cartera
1,008.8
-78.9
Mercado Accionario
151.0
-103.6
Mercado de Dinero
857.8
24.7
Activos
En Bancos del Exterior
Inversin Directa de
Mexicanos
Crditos al Exterior
Garantas de Deuda Externa
Otros
641.3
- -9,079.7
- -31,112.3
11,765.2 14,192.6 17,914.5 30,032.1
17,983.3
-1,511.7 2,773.3 3,457.1 -5,579.3 -4,402.5 -6,148.3
- -5,791.1
- -20,758.4
17,045.6
14,849.0
-4,404.0 -890.8 -1,253.5 -4,431.9 -6,474.0 -5,758.5 -8,256.3 -1,157.1 -7,018.9 -12,694.0
0.0
190.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
90.8 1,717.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2,340.2
3,856.6 1,133.8
-1,775.6
46.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
IED
83
76
99
69
84
50
32
Nuevas Inversiones
50
40
32
37
33
22
21
Reinversiones
13
38
19
25
14
Cuentas con la
Matriz
25
23
30
13
26
14
Inversin de Cartera
17
24
31
16
50
68
Mercado Accionario
-8
11
14
-1
-11
14
Mercado de Dinero
17
12
18
19
11
42
-25
14
25
24
Sector Pblico
-22
-51
-13
-15
19
Sector Privado
-8
12
-9
15
Pidiregas
16
15
24
19
32
Valores emitidos en
el exterior
50,000,000.0
40,000,000.0
Total
Inversin de cartera
IED
30,000,000.0
20,000,000.0
10,000,000.0
0.0
2000
-10,000,000.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
81.2
72.8
66.2
55.6
57.7
58.3
60.3
56.6
Sector Pblico
40.1
35.0
27.8
18.4
17.1
16.6
35.3
32.4
Sector Privado
41.0
37.8
38.4
37.2
40.7
41.7
24.8
24.2
Pago de Intereses
5.9
5.0
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.2
4.3
3.7
22.8
21.7
20.1
17.4
18.1
18.0
19.3
18.9
Sector Pblico
11.3
10.4
8.4
5.8
5.4
5.1
11.7
11.0
Sector Privado
11.5
11.3
11.6
11.7
12.7
12.9
7.6
7.9
Pago de Intereses
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
Autoridad Sector
Otros
Ajustes
Monetaria Bancario Sectores
2002
20.81
24.60
12.09
8.86
0.00
1.76
10.19
3.79
2003
18.42
22.22
10.97
8.08
0.00
1.56
8.77
3.81
2004
15.87
19.60
9.65
7.17
0.00
1.34
7.36
3.74
2005
14.66
19.41
8.43
6.64
0.00
1.22
6.80
4.75
2006
12.68
17.52
6.74
5.21
0.00
1.06
6.41
4.84
2007
11.28
16.89
5.23
3.82
0.00
0.89
6.57
5.61
2008
11.52
18.64
5.22
3.76
0.00
0.88
6.88
7.12
2009
16.50
19.08
9.56
4.56
0.00
0.98
10.96
2.58
2010
16.00
19.49
9.19
4.69
0.00
1.40
9.91
3.49
10.00
8.00
Gobierno Federal
Sector Bancario
Otros Sectores
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
Variacin
1993
5.16
1994
1.25
1995
3.54
1996
3.84
1997
5.29
1998
5.57
1999
5.37
2000
5.67
2001
7.21
2002
8.14
2003
9.36
2004
9.78
2005
10.94
2006
10.72
2007
11.86
2008
12.77
2009
14.25
2010
15.83
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
Bandas
Cambiarias
400000
200000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010