BTEC HNC - Analytical Methods - Statistics and Probability

Statistics and Probability
Analytical Methods for Engineers

By Brendan Burr
Brendan Burr BTEC Higher National Certificate in Electronics
Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................... 2
TASK 1 ................................................................................ 4
1.1 The diameter in millimetres of a reel of wire is measured
in 48 places and the results are as shown. ............................ 4
Form a frequency distribution of diameters having 6 classes. 4
Solution:- ......................................................................................... 4
Draw a histogram depicting the data. ................................... 5
Solution:- ......................................................................................... 5
Form a cumulative frequency distribution. ............................ 6
Solution:- ......................................................................................... 6
Draw an ogive for the data. ................................................. 6
Solution:- ......................................................................................... 6
TASK 2 ................................................................................ 7
2.1 Determine the mean, median and mode values for the
following set of data correct to 1 decimal place: ................... 7
Solution:- ......................................................................................... 7
2.2 The values of capacitance in microfarads selected at
random from a large batch of similar capacitors: .................. 8
Solution:- ......................................................................................... 8
TASK 3 ............................................................................... 9
3.1 In an experiment to determine the relationship between
the current flowing in an electrical and the applied voltage,
the results obtained are:- .................................................... 9
Solution:- ......................................................................................... 9
3.2 The relationship between the voltage applied to an
electrical circuit and the current flowing is as shown: .......... 11
Solution:- ....................................................................................... 11
Check:- ........................................................................................... 13
4.1 A box of fuses are all of the same shape and size and
comprises 23 off 2A fuses, 47 off 5 A fuses and 69 off 13 A
fuses. Determine the probability of selecting at random :- ... 14
(a) A 2 A fuse ................................................................. 14
(b) A 5 A fuse ................................................................. 14
2
(c) A 13 A fuse. ................................................................. 14
Solution (a):- .................................................................................. 14
Solution (b):- .................................................................................. 14
Solution (c):- .................................................................................. 14
Check:- that the sum of a, b and c is equal to 1: ............................ 14
4.2 An automatic machine produces on average 10 % of its
components outside of the tolerance required. In a sample of
10 components from this machine determine the probability
of having three components outside of the tolerance required
by assuming a Binomial distribution. .................................. 15
Solution:- ....................................................................................... 15
4.3 In problem 4.2 determine the probability of having three
components outside of the required tolerance using the
Poisson distribution. .......................................................... 16
Solution:- ....................................................................................... 16
Check:- ........................................................................................... 16
4.4 The specific resistance of a reel of silver wire of nominal
diameter 0.5 mm is estimated by determining the resistance
of 7 samples of the wire. These were found to have
resistance values (in ohms per metre) of :- ......................... 17
Solution:- ....................................................................................... 17
EVALUATION ..................................................................... 19
CONCLUSION ..................................................................... 19
Books ............................................................................... 20
Catalogues ........................................................................ 20
Websites ........................................................................... 20
3
Task 1
1.1 The diameter in millimetres of a reel of wire is measured in 48 places
and the results are as shown.
2.10 2.29 2.32 2.21 2.14 2.22
2.28 2.18 2.17 2.20 2.13 2.13
2.26 2.10 2.21 2.17 2.28 2.15
2.16 2.25 2.23 2.11 2.27 2.34
2.24 2.05 2.29 2.18 2.24 2.16
2.15 2.22 2.14 2.27 2.09 2.21
2.11 2.17 2.22 2.19 2.12 2.20
2.23 2.07 2.13 2.26 2.16 2.12
Form a frequency distribution of diameters having 6 classes.
Solution:-
Range of Data = Highest Value Lowest Value
= 2.34 2.05
= 0.29
Size of each Class =
Classes
Range
=
6
29 . 0
= 0.048 approx
(Therefore increment each class by 0.04)
Frequency Distribution for the Diameters:
Class Class Mid-Point Frequency
2.05 2.09 2.07 3
2.10 2.14 2.12 11
2.15 2.19 2.17 11
2.20 2.24 2.22 12
2.25 2.29 2.27 9
2.30 2.34 2.32 2
4
Draw a histogram depicting the data.
Solution:-
5
Form a cumulative frequency distribution.
Solution:-
Class Frequency Upper Class
Boundary
Cumulative
Frequency
2.05 2.09 3 Less than 2.095 3
2.10 2.14 11 Less than 2.145 14
2.15 2.19 11 Less than 2.195 25
2.20 2.24 12 Less than 2.245 37
2.25 2.29 9 Less than 2.295 46
2.30 2.34 2 Less than 2.345 48
Draw an ogive for the data.
Solution:-
6
Task 2
2.1 Determine the mean, median and mode values for the following set of
data correct to 1 decimal place:
73.8 126.4 40.7 141.7 28.5 237.4 157.9
Solution:-
Mean
7
9 . 157 4 . 237 5 . 28 7 . 141 7 . 40 4 . 126 8 . 73 + + + + + +
2 . 115
Median
4 . 237 , 9 . 157 , 7 . 141 , 4 . 126 , 8 . 73 , 7 . 40 , 5 . 28
4 . 126
Mode = This set has no Mode!
7
2.2 The values of capacitance in microfarads selected at random from a
large batch of similar capacitors:
34.3 25.0 30.4 34.6 29.6 28.7 33.4 32.7 29.0 31.3
Determine the standard deviation from the mean for these capacitors,
correct to 3 significant figures.
Solution:-
Standard Deviation
( )
'

n
x x
2
9 . 30
10
3 . 31 29 7 . 32 4 . 33 7 . 28 6 . 29 6 . 34 4 . 30 25 3 . 34
+ + + + + + + + +
x
x
( ) x ( ) x ( ) x x
( )
2
x x
25.0 30.9 5.9 34.81
28.7 30.9 2.2 4.84
29.0 30.9 1.9 3.61
29.6 30.9 1.3 1.69
30.4 30.9 0.5 0.25
31.3 30.9 0.4 0.16
32.7 30.9 1.8 3.24
33.4 30.9 2.5 6.25
34.3 30.9 3.4 11.56
34.6 30.9 3.7 13.69
( ) 1 . 80
2
x x
( )
83019434 . 2
01 . 8
01 . 8
10
1 . 80
2

n
x x
F 83 . 2
to 3 significant figures
8
Task 3
3.1 In an experiment to determine the relationship between the current
flowing in an electrical and the applied voltage, the results obtained
are:-
Current (mA) 5 11 15 19 24 28 33
Applied voltage (V) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Determine using the product moment formula the coefficient of
correlation for these results.
Solution:-
( )( ) { }
( )
( ) Y Y y
X X x
y x
xy
r

2 2
Values of r should be between -1 and +1
Let X be the Variable Current Values.
Let Y be the Variable Voltage Values.
X Y
X X X x Y Y Y y
5 2 19.3 14.3 8 6
11 4 19.3 8.3 8 4
15 6 19.3 4.3 8 2
19 8 19.3 0.3 8 0
24 10 19.3 4.7 8 2
28 12 19.3 8.7 8 4
33 14 19.3 13.7 8 6
xy 2
x
2
y
85.8 204.49 36
33.2 68.89 16
8.6 18.49 4
0 0.09 0
9.4 22.09 4
12.7 75.69 16
82.2 187.69 36
9
9 . 231 xy
43 . 577
2
x
112
2
y
Therefore:
( ) ( ) { } 112 43 . 577
9 . 231
r
911889186 . 0 r
Or
912 . 0 r
to 3 decimal places
Very good correlation exists between the values of Current (mA) and Applied
Voltage (V).
10
3.2 The relationship between the voltage applied to an electrical circuit and
the current flowing is as shown:
Current (mA) Applied voltage (V)
2 5
4 11
6 15
8 19
10 24
12 28
14 33
Assuming a linear relationship, determine the equation of the
regression line of applied voltage, Y, on current X, correct to 4
significant figures.
Solution:-
Let X be the Independent Current Values.
Let Y be the Dependant Voltage Values.
X a a Y
1 0
+
2
1 0
1 0
X a X a XY
X a N a Y
+
+
Current (mA), X Voltage (V), Y X
2
XY Y
2

2 5 4 10 25
4 11 16 44 121
6 15 36 90 225
8 19 64 152 361
10 24 100 240 576
12 28 144 336 784
14 33 196 462 1089
56 X
135 Y
560
2
X
1334 XY
3181
2
Y
7 N
11
By substituting these values into the equations gives:
1 0
56 7 135 a a +
(1)
1 0
560 56 1334 a a +
(2)
Multiply (1) by 56 to give:
1 0
3136 392 7560 a a +
(3)
Multiply (2) by 7 to give:
1 0
3920 392 9338 a a +
(4)
Deduct (3) from (4), leaving:
1
784 0 1778 a +
1
784
1778
a
268 . 2
1
a
Substitute a
1
into (1) to give:
( ) 267857143 . 2 56 7 135
0
+ a
7
127 135
0

a
143 . 1
0
a
Therefore:
X Y 268 . 2 143 . 1 +
12
Check:-
13
Task 4
4.1 A box of fuses are all of the same shape and size and comprises 23
off 2A fuses, 47 off 5 A fuses and 69 off 13 A fuses. Determine the
probability of selecting at random :-
(a) A 2 A fuse
(b) A 5 A fuse
(c) A 13 A fuse.
X 2 Amp 5 Amp 13 Amp
Y 23 47 69
Y
es NumberXFus
p
Solution (a):-
1654676259 . 0
139
23
a
a
p
p
166 . 0
a
p
Solution (b):-
3381294964 . 0
139
47
b
b
p
p
338 . 0
b
p
Solution (c):-
4964028777 . 0
139
69
c
c
p
p
496 . 0
c
p
Check:- that the sum of a, b and c is equal to 1:
1 4964028777 . 0 3381294964 . 0 1654676259 . 0 + +
14
4.2 An automatic machine produces on average 10 % of its components
outside of the tolerance required. In a sample of 10 components from
this machine determine the probability of having three components
outside of the tolerance required by assuming a Binomial distribution.
Solution:-
1 +q p
1 9 . 0 1 . 0 +
The binomial expansion of ( )
n
p q + is:
( ) ( )( )
...
1 2 3
2 1
1 2
1
3 3 2 2 1
+

+
+ +

p q
n n n
p q
n n
p nq q
n n n n
Therefore the binomial expansion of ( )
10
1 . 0 9 . 0 + is:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) 1 1 . 0 9 . 0 10
1 . 0 9 . 0 10 1 . 0 9 . 0 45 1 . 0 9 . 0 120
1 . 0 9 . 0 210 1 . 0 9 . 0 252 1 . 0 9 . 0 210
1 . 0 9 . 0 120 1 . 0 9 . 0 45 1 . 0 9 . 0 10 9 . 0
10 0
9 1 8 2 7 3
6 4 5 5 4 6
3 7 2 8 9 10

+ + +
+ + +
+ + + +
From this we can see that:
The probability of having zero defective components:
3486784401 . 0 9 . 0
10
The probability of having one defective component:

387420489 . 0 1 . 0 9 . 0 10
9

The probability of having two defective components:
1937102445 . 0 1 . 0 9 . 0 45
2 8

The probability of having three defective components:
057395628 . 0 1 . 0 9 . 0 120
3 7

15
4.3 In problem 4.2 determine the probability of having three components
outside of the required tolerance using the Poisson distribution.
Solution:-
,
_
+

+
+ +
...
1 2 3 1 2
1
3 2

e
np
As long as 5 , a good approximation of the Binomial Distribution can
be given using the Poisson Distribution.
1 1 . 0 10 np

Therefore the Poisson Distribution Expression can be used.
The probability of having zero defective components:
3678794412 . 0
1

e e

The probability of having one defective component:
3678794412 . 0 1
1

e e

The probability of having two defective components:

1839397206 . 0
1 2
1
! 2
1 2 2

e e

The probability of having three defective components:

0613132402 . 0
1 2 3
1
! 3
1 3 3

e e

Check:-
The Poisson Distribution is a method of approximation, therefore when
comparing the answers to the Binomial Distribution (in answer 4.2)
there is a slight dissimilarity!
16
4.4 The specific resistance of a reel of silver wire of nominal diameter 0.5
mm is estimated by determining the resistance of 7 samples of the
wire. These were found to have resistance values (in ohms per metre)
of :-
1.12 1.15 1.10 1.14 1.15 1.10 and 1.11
Determine the 99 % confidence interval for the true specific
resistance of the reel of wire.
Solution:-
N
z
x
C
t
Firstly I need to work out the Standard Deviation of this set of numbers:
( )
'
n
x x
2
7
11 . 1 10 . 1 15 . 1 14 . 1 10 . 1 15 . 1 12 . 1 + + + + + +
x
124285714 . 1 x
x
x
( ) x x
( )
2
x x
1.10 1.124285714 0.024285714 0.000589795904489796
1.10 1.124285714 0.024285714 0.000589795904489796
1.11 1.124285714 0.014285714 0.000204081624489796
1.12 1.124285714 0.004285714 0.000018367344489796
1.14 1.124285714 0.015714286 0.000246938784489796
1.15 1.124285714 0.025714286 0.000661224504489796
1.15 1.124285714 0.025714286 0.000661224504489796
( ) 71428572 0029714285 . 0
2
x x
42449 000 . 0
42449 000 . 0
7
0.00297143
0.0206
17
The Confidence Coefficient for 99% is: 2.58 (determined from the John
Bird Book, Page 582)
Therefore:
58 . 2
C
z
7
0.0206 58 . 2
124285714 . 1

t
N
z
x
C
0200911325 . 0 124285714 . 1 t
i.e. The 99% Confidence Interval is between:
104194582 . 1
/m
And
144376847 . 1
/m
18
Evaluation
During this statistics assignment I found a large amount of information in the
Higher Engineering Mathematics Book, by John Bird.
Question one with the Frequency Distribution and Histogram, had been
covered during our work in the National Certificate last year. This allowed me
to check over previous work to ensure I was using the correct methods to get
the answer. I can usually handle statistical data well when in excel, and can
manipulate graphs to look the way I want them to look, however I had difficulty
in creating the Cumulative Frequency Curve. I found it difficult to make the
axis state the correct numbers without it affecting the line of best fit.
Question two was again a general question that I have done work on before in
previous years, so solving the problem was possible by reviewing my old
notes.
Question three was worked through and solved by intensively following the
Engineering Mathematics Book. The book had a very clear guide of gathering
and calculating the required information to put into the formula. I then had to
calculate the equation of the line, this was done using class notes.
I found Question four interesting as it is the mathematical answer to luck. By
learning how to work out the probability you can obviously increase your
chance of successfully picking the correct thing by comparing the likeliness of
it coming up. Although it is unlikely I will ever apply them to a real life
solution, it was interesting to see how things like the chances of winning the
national lottery are calculated. I used two methods, with the Binomial method
being more accurate than the Poseidon method. Confidence intervals were
something I havent used before so had to do a bit of background reading to
be able to successfully apply it to the question.
Conclusion
I am pleased with this assignment, as it involved searching for the appropriate
methods by myself.
I found it difficult to check the majority of the answers as, without further
explanation, there is only one method. This means that only a few of the
answers from the assignment have been checked.
I enjoyed working out the Binomial Distribution task, as I had never heard of it
before this assignment. It involved understanding the rearranging of
formulae, to be able to follow the methods used in the John Bird Book, so it
was good practice. Having understood it I feel confident the answer is
accurate and correct.
19
Bibliography
Through guidance from my lecturer, the following text books, catalogues and
websites I was able to complete this assignment:
Books
Higher Engineering Mathematics (John Bird)
ISBN: 0-7506-8152-7
Catalogues
N/A
Websites
N/A
20

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The probability of having one defective component:

The probability of having two defective components:

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