?
P. TXlWU
NUolTQm
ULL TWVo
J. xQoj
TVo D.Y.W
Nassim Nicholas Taleb,
Rakesh JhunJhunwala
SudVYoLs
. S. W_ (ThUu\l TfN[o)
. NU. YsVlTu (GjR[o)
. R. YNu
. M.S. SLW_u
. G. oL WNj
. S. YSRu
. G. ULiPu
. R. TiVu
U. B. YuU
U. K. RVs lj
. B. NiTLTUs
Utm
Cu\V Y]m YXl
Nd YPL p XVm, SpX
it so
more
and more
conditioned by the past. So one discovers as one takes this journey for one
self that every form of experience has its own limitation. We have had
thousands and thousands of wars; we have had millions of years of sorrow,
and we are not free from it. So one wonders if experience teaches anything at
all psychologically, or it only toughens the mind, makes the mind more dull.
- J. Krishnamurti
l
1. CkRl
jRLjR
Rm
LP
YlTYoLs
u
Rp
Su
RXlL[
RXlL[
Cm
YdL
dVd
LjLs
GpXm
YSh
LhPm
Lhd
LhPlThs[].
YZdLUL
CPeLp
LV[lThs[R
Nt
Jjd
XV
LQeLp
Ls[
U]m
\sLs
CpXRYoLs,
YlTPV]
UoN]eLs
AuPu
YWYtLlTu\].
BVo
P. TXlWU
blsubramani25@gmail.com
Copy writes to
____
P. Balasubramani, M.E. MBA, Ph.D.,
147 A10, Sathya Nagar 7th Street,
Usilampatti 625 532
Madurai District
AkW
(. S. W_, ThUu\l TfN[o)
Lpp
YLVp
UQY]n
Su
TjR
LXjp
T[RWm
Tu\
LXk,
h,
LtT]
RPoTj
VWY
TPeL[d
Y\iP
Au\P
NpjRW
YrdLV
UhPoL[?
G]
AlTRpXm Su Hed\u.
CjR]
LXeLj
Gu
ToYpThP
TWVo
AS]
APkkRm,
BYV]
GuTR
TQjRd
LURu
Ckp
TXlWU AYoLs.
SLLeL[
Cu\V
LVYp
QeL[
BRWeL[
AYds[
UXe
[d\o
URu
tu\]
TWVo
kdLUp
Nnm
RLm
ANdL
BTjRn
LQdp
Ljp
Uhd
Li
NkRV
WPpX
Fd Lt\pXR
AV
Vt.
CRu
BdLjtLL
. P.
S. W_
ShWLs
. NU. YsVlTu,
Dr. G. Manikandan,
H.O.D. of Mech. Dept.
Vellammal College of Engg., Madurai.
TQm TtV TX UWT] UlL[ EPdL GjR
VtLs Su\Lm, Yt APY]YLm AUks[].
\V t-lLs CkR Tm jRL Ylt
CP HtTPYiQm, L CVpTL Yks[].
____
Prof. R. Srinivasan, M.E., Ph.D.,
Mechanical Engg., Dept.
RVS College of Engg.,
Dindigul
GV Gj SPm, YWvVm Cdu\. Behavior Il
TtV
`VeLs
Su\LY
u\.
ARt
Gjdu\
M. Natarajan,
Branch Manager,
State Bank of India,
Mahendragiri.
T[RWju YVL Yru jV RoN]eL[ Gj
Ydm TXu Te Rr GjXp J V Vt.
K.M. Balaji, M.E.,
Junior Telecom Officer,
BSNL,
Chennai.
Definitely this book is a must read for all who want to become
financially intelligent. It outlines the general view of a common man about
money and explains why it is so. It gives an awareness of our discrepancies
within our behaviour when handling money and the emotions behind them.
Realising the emotions itself seems to be the remedy for the discrepancies.
Good work indeed.
T[PdLm
Y.Gi
RXl
TdL Gi
fNVVp J ALm
10
B\Y A
20
_NXjp RuV Vp
29
33
J T] Ntd
38
QtjRY[
44
U]p kR R
50
Snt\ L Wdm
57
hPVd ZlTR
61
10
Su GV Thp t\U?
72
11
Nd ULs
78
12
LdLd g
82
13
AYu AlTjRu
88
14
EXL UVm
94
15
St Cu St
105
16
Gu t\pX
112
17
YtV[oLs LR
117
18
[ds YX
125
19
V]fNe
135
20
Tjd LhP[Ls
141
10
fNVVp J ALm
TW JY[ LgNm TQdLWWL CkkRp? Cum
\V GlTW? JY[ GpXYt\m R]m NnP
HZVLY YrklTW? ApX YUm YLm \kR
YrdLV YZUp YNVL YrkkRp J SpX LOWL
CpXUp TdLd U? TPlTLu YtVd LXm
oUd\R? ApX TPlTLs LXm Ri tm ReLs
TPlL[p
NLju
Td]m,
Y[ofVm
oUdu\]W?
LsLs!
\Vd
LsLs!
RVR
HW[U]
YLp
PRP,
CkRl
TPl
Gu\ J E[Vp
RdLeL[U,
Ut\eL[m
BWnk
Sm
U]m
LQ
AR]p
APm
Vtdu\.
Behavioral
SdLU
V\V,
UdLdj
RYV]
Rp RW Yim Gu\
UoN]m
Gu
Pf
NpXXm.
NV]
Tlm
Economics
NmTkRU]
pLs
Rp
Gm
11
To
\Vf
BeXjm
NnRm
ULm
Cum
HW[U]
CdLjRu
NVeLs
Nnu\].
CkRl
CXdVeLX,
HW[U]
NVeLs
NULXl
BeXjp,
TPlLX
Am
TNlTPR
AVp,
NLm,
dL
VRRhP.
GpXRU]
AVp
AVX
Li
SdYRtLLj
CkRT,
LjdL[
Uo BWm YPeLd u
Ru
LW
LeL[d
AVp BWnfV[oLs
WLVUL
YlTRtLLd
WdLm,
Lhd
TXm ReLs
Xju
Tu\
PkR
BeXjRj
RokRjR]o.
u]p
TX
UXSh
AOoLPV
BWnf
Ls
RX\]o
Y[okR
SLp
Es[Tp
SU
Ut\m
GuTR]p
ARPV
UTs[eLs
12
SpX
YtVl
T\
CVm.
NpXl
T]p
Wm
oUdu\.
TPlLs
TXWm
Htd
LXjt
TmTm
Ls[lTu\
JqYR
ReLs
GuTRm
LjdL[f
TPlTL[
Npm
APV[m
TPlTL[
ARtL]
oL[m
Pf
ALm
NULXjl
YlTjm
WfN]L[m,
JYW
Yt
EXp
HW[U],
tm
V,
SmdLL[
EPdm
NVeL[f
TmTX]
Nu]
TXm
EYd
AlTRd
tL
EP]VLj
Vt
Nnm
RYV]
Y]eL[P
ThL[j
RVj
AkRl
TQjR
Yjl
TX
BWnfLs
Nn
- 485
13
URo,
TPlT,
gO,
EW
CdLm,
Ru
Gjd
Ls[dV,
B]p
LXjdl
TkRd
Kn
SWjp
UhU
mm
NVeLdj
Ru
Uhm
YkkRp,
Rp
GUdj
LR,
iPLXm
Td
LiP
CkdL
m.
TW,
O]j
Gm
LVRXp
GqY[
TQm
A[pXUp
TQm
NWfNW
(TQm
14
RX]
AQV
A[Yl
TjR
EPjYTp
JYdl
TQm
U]
ofu
ETVLUL
ClTm,
SiTo,
XYoL[
QPVYWLY
BRdm
CdmThNjp
AWNo,
AYWp
Tu\YoLs
TV
TV
Bm
RYLdLL
Uu]WL
Tt
EYdL
CkR
LXjp
\V
m.
TX
TPlL[
UWu
GoLXj
SlTVu
gOL[l
TV
A[p
Li
LX
Nnm
YZdLjRV
LiPRpR]
Gu]Y
\Vd
LilLs
TPlTLd
Nt\d
UhmRu
LhdLi,
AWl
RYV?
Tkp
]m
Red
NlPUp
URoLdj
LPp
RYpXV?
Vdl
TVm
NRWQ
JY[
SmTu\
SjRW
P,
jRY
XlThVd
GY?
GY?
So
Gu
GWL
TolTR
EhLok
hh
Li,
X
15
NkR
Yed
lTRp,
RVUL
SU
ZkRLs
RkWeL[
GpXm
A[Y]
TQm
GUVLm,
[du\).
SU
BoYm
Sh]l
\VR
TjRUhp
YLm
Nl
GuT
RndXeLu
Utm
BTjLm
Nl
CdLY
YiU]m
Gj
Lp
Cdu\.
YLm
Nnu\].
TX
SpX
Yel
ETVdLXm
JqY
RU]
Lm,
TQjR
B]p
GlT
AL
Yh
TQUL
Ut\
V.
BdWlLs,
Xd
LQdp
hts
Ljp
Yj
Uhd
AZdm
Li
NVp,
Tef
L]
GpXYt\m
LiTn
Ym
16
TUdLs
GpXRU]
LYofj
hPeLm
TQm
Lh
CpXV?
TV
gOVt\?
Hu
YLp
Sm
YrdLp
Yu\u?
Nt
[dLULl
TolTm.
TXRU] gO], E[Vp BWnfLs
NnRp
TZdLYZdLeLs
LikRm
GpXm
Uo
AYV],
GRm
Vj
Rj
TQm
NmTkRlThP
NVeLp
Cum
AYu
Bh
Nju\].
JY[
LTn
Nm
AYV Rm.
TQm
AYdm
AYWf
NokRYdm
17
- 408
Gu\,
Wp
TQdLWWLl
Tj
YLs
Gu\,
Sm
BWnYRpXm
SmPV
U]m
Hu
TQm
NjRp
Tu\
Au\P
YrdLj
RYLp
TtV
NhPV]
AVU
TX
SmU
YLp
Sm
GlTVpXm
GqY\pXm
HUt\lTu\m?
Yep Tm TQm TLlTL CkRm X YPeLs
Lj Hu ARu Ul \k u\? AR]p Hu u
YeV TsL[ ClT YeL YpX?
Hu
XVV
TmTX]
TeL[
pXW
Yel
RhP[oLs
u
AY
L
Su\L
ALm
X
YhV
RWdV
NlLm,
dNh
18
XY
6%
EVm
YPjp
8%
NmT[
EVod
YjRUPu\]o.
s[Lu GoLXjtLL Yep TQm Ndm UdLs
Hu ReLs Yem YhV P CWi UPe Yhp AR
Yep, LPp, Lo, Tu\Yt\ Ye Yedf NmTjd
Ldu\]o?
Hu .100d \Y] J T[ YeL SuLk To
J LW Gjd Li IkR XhPo Rs Es[ J
LPVj Rf Nu Yeu\]o?
Hu
TmTX]o
J KhPp
NlhPPu
NVLd
AYttL]
oLs,
Tu\
HW[U]
LsLs,
oRu
Gu]?
SU
R]WUu
KYkR
R]WUu
CWp
LLp
jRp
SpX
Pdm,
B]p
LPYW
Yim
Gum
V.
R]
Nt
Vj,
TX
19
LpV?
Yim
NpYU?
Gum,
Gu
Am
ThUu\m
Rp
YdLUp,
NpYjRl
TtV
Ym
NpYjRp
A\m
CuTm
YiV
A[
TQm
Sm
Au\Pm
TV
A[p
LYjl
\UV
Ak
- 754
Li
VYL[p
20
B\Y A
URdm
Ut\
XeLdm
Es[
TV
jVNm
Ap
SpXRd
EPVYu
Gu
NjRu
NpXd
CkkRp
Lijf
SmTlTu\.
Lh,
SUdLpXm
NVpTjm
JY[
O]lTZjR
CqY[
BRm
Uhm
WfN]Ls
\]
HYm
NlPUp
CkdL
SmU
ZkRL[L
jRULl
GR]U
TjdL.
Ls[Up
Sm
Y[okR
LeLs
TX
Sm
mYU?
TVjRm,
ApX
HR
UVRVm
TjVm,
YQeYU?
Tnj
Cdu\
Gu
NpP
V.
SU
LdLPm
JtU,
21
Jld
Lsu\m.
(NkRLm
LhPp
JY[
NT
LXm
YW
TiLs,
BiLdf
NUU]
Tu\
IWlV
SLs
SL[l
YLUL
udj
Y[ok
Rs
YYRp,
T[RW
Rm
dVULd
LYdLlTu\.
Au\Pm
22
Yp]oL[
T[RWjRl Ttl
CYLY
TodLlThP]o.
LRSVLu
TQdLWoL[Lm
VVULY,
HZVLm,
LPp
pXuLs
LRSVLu
YLX
HZ
GpXm
AYW
TQjR
UdLPm
Li
CYVpXm
JY[
EiU
Gu
Gjd
\V
SWeLp
\UuU
NpXf
NpX
T[RWm
RYV]
Ls[lThP.
uT
CkRj
\p
TlTV]
23
RtT
T[RWm
AVp
Gu\
Xd
RtT
TV
A[p
SP\p
Es[].
A]jl
T[RWd
LsLLm
CYPV
T[RWm
GpXRU]
AVp
LsLLm
Gu\p
LRju
ARPV
Y\Lu
RXhk RldL V.
JqY
LWL[p
T[RWl
WfN]m
TdLlTYRm
TX
TXRU]
tdLQdL]
Constraints
Gu
Ll
TV
WfN]Vd
LWLs
(Variables),
(Mathematical Modeling)
Tu\
LR
EP]VLf
YYeL[
NpYRt
Gu
AZdLlTu\.
ETVj
HW[U]
YiV
oL[
UuTsLs
(Software)
24
WpLu
LmlhPu
SWm,
ERP]
CdL
uT
oUdLlTu\.
Tu\Y
AYV]jm
YNm
dLpLs
CdLjR]
Nnm,
Gjd
Li
YLUL
HRY
TRp
TY,
Uh
YiLp
TY,
SWhp
SPk
LsYRp
CYt\
GpXm
LmlhPu
LlTu
NVp
\m,
PLu
lTV
Es[
RkRp
lTV
NpYoLs,
YV
ARY
Ym.
G]Y
CPpXR
HtTjYoLs.
HtTm.
AkR
AkR
YLp
Ls
Ldl
ClTRtLL
\lThPp
\mT],
AkR
L[
PLp
ZlTm
L[
UdLR
WpLsRu
UjRm
Ku\]
GuTTp
CjR]
TXY
LWLs Es[].
T[RWl
WfN]Lm
HW[U]
25
ojd
Lsu\].
ARtLL
HW[U]
Ls
Utm
SmdLLu
AlTPXV
Gu
Ju
Ei,
AYu
SpX
LhPRl
AqY
YlTRtj
RYV]
RLYpL[m
ETVdm
URu
AR]f
NVpTjYo
Gu
RPem.
LWQULY
B]p
U]dZlTeLs
URoLs
NkRl
LWQULY
WfN]Ls
\lT]
HtTm
PV. ClT
WfN]LdL
om
PV,
A[m
1. TjRm \u
Ce TjRm \u GuT R]d G SpX, G LhP
Am lTL G XTm, G WVm Gu Rk YjjRp.
CRuT
JqY
URm
R]dd
LdLlThs[
26
YVR]YoLm,
AYoL[
ZkRLm
EPu
AqY
YkRYoLs
NnV
u]p
VRRp
ClTYoLPu
2. Ru SXm TRp
Rp lT G SpX, G LhP Gu RkRR
Yj R]df NRLU] R]d EiUp SuU NnYRV
RokRdm \u.
TmTm Sm SUd SpX G, XTU] G GuTRV
Rf NnRm TX SWeLm RkR SUd SU XTm RWR
LVeL[f
Nn\m.
RVR
URoLd
ER
NnRp,
NjRp,
RtLX
Nn
LsRp,
TR
RkRm
HR
TXR
SpX
Uhm
LhP
RLYpL[j
RVUp
YjRp
Tef
NkR,
\V
AVp
SWeLp
GpXj
BWnf,
VTWm
RLYpLm
Tu\Ytp
UVLj
RV.
27
AYNW
LvLs
(SgY),
mTj]u
YV
Np
dLX]
EjRWu\o.
Xp
Giu\o.
u\.
Es[Yo
Ls
Nph
YkR
Vo
Lf
Gu
Toj,
NnV
YYRt
uT
JYo
UjYm
TodL
ZlTu
Ut\Yd
BWmj u\o.
UtLiPTX GkR J SpX, ATYm YnkR UjYm
SPk Ls[UhPo. CWi u GV NVeLs: GqY[
YV? Gu] GP? lTYW? Rp \V? C Tu\ X
LsLs Xm L GRL VW Rp TolT Gu
Nn Yo. GpX PvLm Gj UV] RLYpLs
Pdm YW YdL Tojd LidLUhPo.
AR
\UV]
UjYo
EQ
Y[,
Tu
Lp
YWm
YeV
Uk
LmTu
LXi
Ls
Li
Es[.
Gu]
NnY?
tPY?
Gu
Lh\o.
UjYdl
TXU]
VN].
Te
NkR]l
YjRlTh
im
AL
Xd
Ye
u\o.
28
XYt\
UYLm,
R]ULm
NnV
Yis[.
eL ef NVtTX eLtL
eL Nnm ] 672
LXk Rrjf NnV YiVYt\d LXkRrjR
NnV Yim. WYLf NnV YiV NVpL[
NnVd LXk RrjRdP.
JqY
LhlTjf
SWjm
NVpTP
JqY
GpXm
RUL
Gu]
EQoL[d
SLo
XLU?
GuT
AlTP
SPlTu
Ls
Gu\
T[RWd
T[RW
Lhm
B]m
ClTjRu
AlTPXV
TXRU]
NVpTu\].
LmlhPoLu
uRU]
URu
LsLLm AkRd
Ls
UtLiP
TjRPV
SmdLLu
UuTsLm
ETVdm
NkRLU.
LsLLu
AkR
AlTPp
UuTsL[
ERVRu
GdLlTu\].
UtLiP
TmTX]
AlTP
29
_NXjp RuV Vp
T[RW URLs Gu]Y URu TjR Es[Yu
Gu\ SmdLm AYu GlTm R]d XTm SuUm
Rm L[jRu GlTu Gu\ SmdLm TXRU]
LsLL[
Yj
ARu
SPkRm
Au\P
Yrp
T[RW
QoLm
BWnfLs
TXm
GkRl
TXm
CpX.
dVU]
SWeLp
G]lTm
uLsLs
SoLhp
NpX,
LhlThP
CZkm.
ARl
NmTkRlThP
NVeLp
YZdLULY
LkRlXm
TXY
YVLf
Ym.
URoLm,
jNjR]m
Ru
TQm
CpXR,
Tu\
URu
LsmTV]
T[RWf
kR]Lp
UTP]
LWQeLs
SpX
SPjRLd
HRY
LidLlThPpRu
Ut\eLs
HtTPdm
Gu\
40
TpLXdLZLjp
PVp
BiLd
_NXm
SLo,
L]Uu
(Daniel Kahneman)
Gu\
CWi
E[Vp
ReLs
Ydu\]o.
UQYoLdl
Tt
Ru\]o
Gu
30
ULs
]m
Tt
NnmT
ShLs
RiP]L[
JYW
\lTL
sVp
vPhvdLp
dW^u
(Statistical
Nt
EVWm
\kR
ZkRLm,
s[U]
AkR
TWmTWu
NWN
EVWjR
JhV
\dm.
TWhPhPm
SpX
[]j
AL
UlTi
Tt\
U\
\YR
Jh
31
ARu\
AkR
TXNR]L[f
NnR]o.
gOLm
UdLs
TmTm
RPok
AloYUL
(Thumb
ETVjR
Rules)
TmTX]
Ls
Utm
gOLu
LilLu
RlT
Tu\
Finance)
Y[ok
Ym
TX
CkRj
TVoLp
\
YZeLlTu\.
Cum
UVL
YReLd
E[Vp,
Tu\
EhThP
T[RWm,
TX\Lm
BWnfL[L
NhPm,
WhLWU]
UjYm
TX
Utm
Ut\eLd
ALs[].
AUv
Yov
Utm
PVp
BWmTLX BWnfLu R
L]Uu
CYu
YdL
JRXlThNU]
CYoLu
LsL
AZdLlT\.
Shtd
YLs
ERm
Gu
Rp
(Prospect Theory)
u]p
CYm
TVokhP]o.
BnkRV
Ts
WvTdh
Utm
Ls[Xm.
YZdLmTp
L]Uu,
Gu
AUdL
_op
Es[
RL
YL]m
Jum
tT]
NnVpX.
[mTWRWoLdm,
NnTYoLdm
HtL]Y
Su
Gu\o.
PVp
L]Uu
2002-m
Bi
32
AkRl
STp
YZeLlThP.
TYL
C\ldlu
YZeLlTYpXVRXp
AUv
YZeLlThP.
L]Uu,
Yov
CYu
HtTjRd
AlT
UR
LjdL[P
Ju\
LilT
AL
AVp
TlT
L]m
Gu
lPlThP.
CjR
TXRU]
uWLm
u\].
Gdm
Lp
Es[
WiTL[m
Tt
33
dlTVp
CkR
VVU]R!
TdLlThPYoLs
UVpXm
B]p
CRf
NnYu
EiUV]
NnYoL[,
Gu\
U]X
CpXV?
Tef
Gu]Yu
YjRXl
h
GdvTdPh
TtV
(Expected
RYLj
RVR
BWnfLs
GpXm
Utility
Gu\
Theory)
Yjd
NVXf
NnV,
LsYm.
Jud
Rp
UtThP
YLs
YV
Gjd
Td
GiQL
Utd
Ls[
Yim.
= 20%
TXu = 5000
Gu Yjd LiPp
Rp Yu GoTojR TXu
34
NpXlTPdV
Probability
Gu\
LRju
URoLs
Rp
VTRu
Ls
Lrdm
[dLm
Lj
Ut\T
TmTX]o GdvTdPh h V TV
Ydu\]o
Gu\
LsLVV
TX
AVX[oLm
LPlj YkR]o.
AUv
Utm
L]Uu
CYm
GkR
A[d
Sm
TolTm.
AYoLs
NpYRtLL
AlTV
NR] - 1
rdLiPYtp eLs GR moLs. (EeLd JY[
Pdm Gu\p)
A. . 1000 PdL 60% Ynl
Jum CpXUp TL 40% Ynl (UjRm 100% GuTRp)
B. .450 Uhm Ttd Ls[Xm.
UtLiP
Lsd
TmTX]o
GuTRV
AlTPp
LQdl
Thl
35
Tn
UhU
Pjdm.
VVUL
TmTX]o
Gu
Giu\]o.
AR]XV
TX]j
RokRdu\]o.
NR] - 2
UtLiP
Tu\
Utm
NR]:
HRY
NR]p
TmTX]o
YV
36
NR] B!
EeLs
Tid
GkR
Uls[V
RokRloLs.
NR] K!
A. NkRjp RVWL Es[ ERYdLW TVu.
B. Yp SpX TVu PdL 30% Ynl. UNU]
TVu PdL 50% Ynl. LPYW YWu PdLUp TL
20% Ynl.
NkRjp J UW] Uls[ CkRp, Sm ALm
VdLUp, Yp SpX Uls[ PdL Ynl CkRm
ARl TTjRUp TmTm NkRjp Es[ TV]V
RokRlTm. AR
NUVm
NkRjp
Es[
Uls[
CqY\pXm
Sm
SPd\m
GuTRV
uYm
lWvTdh V [du\.
Prospect Theory - lWvTdh V
PVp Utm AUv, UX V Tu\ HW[U]
NR]L[f Nn ReLs L[l lWvTdh V Gu\
TVp YhP]o.
37
[L[P
AL
dVjYm
Ru\]o.
RVWL
Es[]o.
AY
JY[
PdLXm,
Nu
Jum
CZdLUp
Rldm
Ynl]f
Ye
LWQeL[XV
A
KW[
RhP[oLs
XTjp
HRY
NkR
NV
CdmT
ARNUVm Y J TeL Ye
WfN]L[m
BWmjRPu
ARY
ClT
Ri
RLl
SpX
Teu
SpX
XTm
TeLL
H\
NmTdL
BWmdm.
Um.
B]m
38
J T] Ntd
JT] Ntd J N TRm GuT GpXdm
RkR
TZU.
CRf
Nt
Njl
TodLXm.
GqY
TRm
(J
TolT.
LXjp
fNVUL
[VV)
ZkRLs
hPgN
AqYRu NnVlTu\.
2.
ApX
(TeLp,
TVYLVV
Noj
Tu\Yt\
YL
YjRp
AqY\
NnV
JY[
JW
TU]
A[
AVV
CpX
YL
Gu\p
YjRm
Z
Uhm
Rio
Yk
TZU
Gu]U
EiU
Gu\m
ARu
NR] - 1
J URu, J UX Y[, LRo T_U, Ys[ Yx,
J _p] T, Ap J jRLm NRUL J eL AL
TndLi Cdu\o. AYo VWL CdLd m?
39
1. J YN
2. J tT]l W
3. J GjR[o
4. J UjYo
5. J TV[o
UtLiP Lsdl TmTX]o J GjR[o Gu\
TXV
ASLUL
Ydu\m?
AlTPV]
AdLd
Sm
U]p
SmdLLm,
m.
Hu
Sm
JqYu\l
LjLm
AqY
Ttm
Es[].
X
Sm
GpXm
SpXYoLs
Gu
YNV]YoLs
TZ
u\.
Sm\m.
Gum
Ys[VL
JSs
EVokR
Kp
ClTYoLs
EPVkRYoLs
Yej
RkRYoLs
AYLs
TmTX]
SWeLp
Gu\
A
AkRv]
NV
Gu\m
APu\]o.
X
dVU]
SX]V
TTYoL[Lm
CpXRYoL[Lm
AUk
TX
u\]o.
SWeLp
JSs
YNm
J
UQm
TmTm
Rsl
Tu\.
SiToLs
40
Ts
YkR
Bk
ApX
B GuT
Ak
TVv
(Representativeness
AZdLlTu\.
ARY
JW
UV]
Bias)
Gu
EYm
EPV
Gu
dWUjRd
NnRp.
YR[m
CR
NpV
Tu
LPd
Lr
LRp
Ym.
LRu
NVX
lTovPu
Rp
TPU]
L]Uu
CYm
AoYWLeLp LQXm.
AUv
Yov
Utm
PVp
NVeL[
YfNjdd
BWnk
Li
AYtp
Yks[]o.
Es[
AYtp
TX
RYL[
JuRu
CkR
AYo
GjR[o
GuRu
YN
GjR[WL
CdL
Ynl
Ld
\.
G]Y
41
GjR[WL
GjR]
CdL
NRRm
EjRNULd
URoLs
YjRp
YiVR
Rate
Sm
GjR[oL[L
RVUp
(Base
CpX.
Ym
td
Cdu\]o
EPV
Tv
Fallacy)
Rp
Gu
Uhm
Wh
Yj
@TX
Gu
NR] - 2
CWi
Ys[l
ThLs
TkLs
Es[].
Utm
Rp
Te
Thp
Lll
CWi
TkLs
Te
Es[].
Rp\
GjR
TkL[
ALm
Yu\]o.
RY
Gu
NpX
VhPm
42
NjRp
AkR
Uu
EiUV]
NR] - 3
JYo J L] Yj Y, RXV Thl Todu\o.
Uo
RPY
AqY
Nn\o
Gu
Yjd
LiPp
A]Ym
ApX
Gu\
dL
SmdLu
LWQULY
Tef
NkRp
43
Sm
JSs
Hm
GuT
B]p
Ld
\Y]
U\LY
GpXm
SPdm.
Sm
Ljk
Ljk
44
QtjRY[
\Vl Td CkRd LR Rm. YXLm RVR
URoL[
Sm
CqY
AZlT
Ei.
LPp
RY[
CqY[
TVR?
Gu
LhLm,
ARPl
LXUL
Su
CeL
Yru\u
RU?
Gu\.
Gu.
Cdu\m.
AOoLs,
Smp
TmTXo
YXLm
NR]V[oLs
Qtj
RVRYoLs
P
ReLs
RY[L[LY
UhUpX.
LlTV
\Vj
RW
Ut\
EQok
Ls[
kRm,
AYoLs
Xp
ApX
Wf]L[V,
SmUPf
GiQ
\kR
AYV]
KhPeL[V
JYPV
SmUp
EQok
45
Ydu\m.
AYnXh
vd
CqRU]
TZdLR`jt
(Avalability Heuristics)
Gu
TVo.
LiYW
u\.
`VeLs
GqY[
TUVL
ARPu
NmTkRlThP
Ut\
Es[]
Gu\
]p
NVjRl
TmTm
SmUp
Ls[Y
AR
Yj J YdLY V.
SU hPp C[Oo JYo CRVSVp C\khPp
Fp \V C[OoLd CRVSn ClTRL Giu\m.
SUdj
Rk
VRp
VWY
NnY
Ll
VRp
TV
Nn
BTj
Gu
RtlT]p
Giu\m.
C\emTR
SUdj
RkR
BTjLdL
Sm
Nu
hm.
CR]l
Tt
ThPmf
YLl Tu\. J
46
AR]j
RlTRtLL
Nn\m.
\V
TVuTjd
Lsu\].
HW[U]
UjYU]Ls
CR]f
EPp
NXL[f
NRLULl
ETRL[d
ALj
RLd
GlTm.
B]p
T.V.p
Thd
Ltj Rm
Tu\Yt\
RY
CpX.
Sm
dVUL
Ti
ZkRLdd
YlTPVLj
RkR
Ltj
WTXU]
Utm
L]Uu
NR]Ls
Xm
dL[Ll
CWi
dLPm
YNp
LlWTXU],
UdLdl
ThNVU]
47
JqY
Pm
LhPlThP
TVoLp
BiLs
TVoLp
GidLV.
BiLm,
CT]dm
ETVLlTjRlTPpX.
TiLm
TYL
B]p
Es[
NU
TVoLs
NR]dhThP
Rp
LhPlThP]
ReLd
WTXU]
OTLm
GuTR
Cdu\
\Lp
hh
Gu
GqY[
TojR
CkRYoLu
TVoLs
TVoLs
NnR]o.
HtL]Y
ARtLt\o
NTjp
SPkR
LrL[
SmU
LhP LrL[
ALm
Tdu\].
TXY
Whp
SPk
NpmT
SUd
YiV
Rm.
LdZkRL[m,
RL
tT]l
UQU]YoLs
WLs
AjR
\Vd
LmTl
48
EXLm Ju\
LYjRp,
JqYYm
AjRYo
TYRd
TYRd
R]ds[V
LhTR
Aj
Gu]
PV.
TNXm
AjRYo
Gu
TmT
LQdl
Thd
Sm
GlTm
Yrk
Li
_jp
\V
HUu\m.
Chapman, Chapman Gu\ JW TVo LiP CWi AOoLs
E[Vp UjYoL[ Yjf NR] NnRp AYoLs P
TX
BiLX
UjYl
Ttdl
um
Yu
AYoLu
Yp]oLdd
SmdLd
A,
NRLUL
CpX.
SmdLL[Pl
TX]ULY Es[.
J VNR]
HRY
Gj
Gu\
Gu\
Gjd
ApX
u\Y,
SuLY
GjRLd
LiP
ATXY, Sm
49
ALm
TVuTu\R
CpXV
EYm
Es[
B]p
EYUt\
YojRLs
TVuTm
\V
NkRolTeL[ Gp ] \m.
CR]XV SpX URoL[P WTXU] URoL[ ALm
Yt
RWU]
Tu\]o.
[mTWm
TsL[
EtTj
NnVf
NdVt\YoLs
NnRm
S[Pp
GqY[
Rtl
hPeL[V
Sml
TU[
Yeu\]o.
Tu\Ytu
TeL[V
ALm
Yeu\m.
BVYtp
UhU
SmdL
Yj
AYt\
ALU]
A[
CZl]l
NnV
U]pXUp
50
U]p kR R
U]m J Y[U] Xm, HRY J Lj Ap RVL
khPp A TmTm AYR CpX. RkR rX
HtTmT A UpX UpX UX Ykm. U\lTRtLL Sm
GkR J Vt GjRm A AR] ALlTjm ApX
BZjp Li Nu hm. iP ShLs Lj, UpX
UpX
LjL[
Bm.
TeLp
LXk
YlTm.
S[Pp
LhPjp
Sm
Sm
RL
ju
AR
Ym
SU
Ut\
TVLY
U\kYm.
Sm
VWl
YkhPp
TtVY
\V
Rp
SWeLp
AR
J
Utd
EQ,
EP,
WlTPm
Gm
Rp
RWm
LNUL
UhPm
Sm
Cum
TZV
OTLjXV ClTm.
NV] ERWQm NpX Yim Gu\p J Ti ApX
Uls[Vl TtV J RY\] LjR VWY NphPp,
Sm Tm TVk Ym. BWVUXV SmYm. u
Sm
Su
Njl
TodmT
Vm
RY\L
51
Ym,
JY[
HRY
CkhPp?
Gu
AkR
YW]j
RojYm.
CkR [ BuLe (Anchoring) Gu, ARY SeWRp
Gu
AZdLlTu\.
ARuT
UdLs
GRlTtm
UlhPl
Rt\jR
Yj
]du\ThNjp
TdLY
URm
Nnu\.
20,000
VWY
Tn
AYo
ARY
NmT[m
Sm
JYo
YeYRL
ALU]
NmT[m
Gu
AVUXV
RtNVXL
JW
A[Y CpX.
]dmThNjp
AYoLs
SmdLd
52
NR] - 1
AUv Utm L]Uu CYm SPjV J NR]p
CWi L[L XWl j RjRVL AYoLPm IdV
SLs NTp GjR] NRRm BldL SLs El]oL[L
Es[] Gu\
LsVd LhP]o.
Ap
JqY
dm
]o
NWNVL
StTjRk
NRRm
Gu\
Cks[]o.
Vm
TV
A[p
ReLs
BWmT
Xp
Uo
GTjRk
NRRjt
AkRl
NR] - 2
SU AOoLs UtLiP Ut\ NR]p 1 Rp 8
YW Es[ GiL[l Td]p Gu] RL Ym Gu
LhLlThP.
Vm
GkR
ETLWQm
ETVLlTjR
AU
A[d
RWlTPpX.
Uo
Ik
]Ls
Uhm
53
RWlThP. Cp Rp t 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8 Gu\
YN LdLlThP. CWiPY t 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x
1 Gu Utj RWlThP. C]Wm Td Ym Gi
Gu] Gu LhLlThP.
UtLiP NR]p Rp ]o NWNVL 512 Gu\
Pm CWiPY ]o 2250
Gu\ Pm
AjR]o.
U]p
Td
Ak
UPeLs
ALj
GiL[m
ARV
RXZL
8x7x6 Gu
ETVLm
LsYm) TojR
\Y]
TodmT
Xp
SpX
Te,
Te]
(70
Sm
Gu
ShLs
Yjd
\k
Lj
LsYm)
Pd\
Gu
UhU
Tojh
AYNWlTh,
VdLUp
tu\
Gum,
Ye]p
H\Y
H\
Gum
54
HtTm.
NpXl
T]p
Tef
NkR
Wu
LdmT
Sm
\V
RYL[f
Nnu\m.
Yt
AmNeLm
T\
NVL
Yim
AUV
Gu\p
Yim.
TX
Ap
Es[
XLs
GpX
Es[
Thu\]o.
ARY
ReLs
TPV
XLs
ALm
Es[R
AqY[LqY[
ALUL
Ju\
Ju
NokR
LrLs
55
Es[R
AYt\l
JudLu
Tj
RY\LY
CpXR
LrNLp
NmTkRm
m.
B]p
[Ls
KW[
NRLUL [m.
B]p CR LQd J Lrf RY\Ll TYRt GqY[
Gu LjRp Sm ]lTR P EiUp L L ALUL
Ym.
ARY
Ld
\YLY
RtlTL
Ynl
Es[,
Tt
YL
AV
Reliability Gu\
RXlp
Es[
jRLeL[l TdLXm)
ARY J Xp HtTm RY P UjRjp
TV CZlT HtTjm. Ld LY]UL RVdLlTm A
EXLs, WdLhLs, SU CkR EPp Tu\Ytp HRY J
Tp HtTm
HtTjm.
Tl UjRjp LlTV
lTL
UjYeLs
RY\Ll
Sm
T]p
[Y
VLdLLf
HRY
Nnm
VV
HtTjm.
dLULf NpXlT]p J Zm YdmT GpXd
LnLLm
\lTL
CkRm
HRY
JuWi
Uhm
G]Y
Yt
YnlTd
LdmT
Rp
Sm
LdmT
Sm
U]p
Ym
GiQ
P L
56
GoTWR
RVWL
Yjd
Ls[
Yim.
ClTVpXm
hPh
Kl
T]
u,
JY[
uT
57
Snt\ L Wdm
SU FolTdLm Sn t\ L WlTpX Gu J
TZU Ei. ARY TQm GkR Yp YkkRm ARu
Ul Ju\. SpX YV, LhP YV, LiPjRR GkRl
TQUL CkRm AR]p JW A[s[ ThL[ fNVUL
LPp Nu YeL m. LPdLWo Jum LQd LhL
UhPo. CkRd Lj NVLY CkRm SU Fp EZdL
Nodm
TQm
Cdu\.
EPmp
JhP
TmTX]
ATLjRXm,
Gu\
NWN
HUtRXm
SmdLm
URoLs
\o
NokR
T[
U]YjRuf
NnV
U]Nhu
RiP]dl
TVk
ReLs
YQem
AkRd
NnRp
mTjd
Gu
SWVLY,
ReL[j
ReL[
U\LULY
NUR]m
Nn
Lsu\]o.
UtLiP
SmdLLd
YNodm
BRWUL
LL
(Mental Accounting)
Gu\
ARl
NR]Ls
js[o.
TX
Xm
LjR
uYj,
GkRRjp
URoLs
ReLs
YU]m
Utm
NjdL[
NmTkRUL
ETVLlTjY
CpX.
Vm
GqY[
58
Xm
YkRR,
AYtu
RuUL[
AYoLs
AkRl
TQjR
ETVLm
NnRp
Tu\Yt\
TU[
NR] - 1
RXo
UdL[
RokRj
AYoLPm
CkRf
NR]Vf Nnu\o.
Rp
Pm
JqYYdm
Uo
50
Tn
.60
ApX
.40m)
GpX
YLm
Ju\LY
YkR
LVULl TY
TQjp
RRp
RVdLjt
CpX. CWiPY Yl
EV
TjRUhp
59
Es[.
AkR
AToLm,
GlTVY
YNV]
LxPlTh
YNLm,
ReLs
Rp
s[L[
GkRd
LiPm
GoLXjdj
SToLu
Kndlu
Es[
YrdL,
RY
Gu
Noj
Ydm
YrdLp
SpX
[L[V
ZkRLs
TQm
\V
HtTju\.
AdLie
Gu\
TV]
fNohRXo
Ju\m TojPXm.
NR] - 2
J STo, eL[Ld P CdLXm J U TPjt 100
Tn
Lj
dLh
Noq
Nn
EsoLs.
TPjt
60
LQpX. EeLPm l
NR]V
TpY
SToLPm
YjRT
Lsdl
TPm TolTm
Gum Tp
Lj
.100
CZl.
B]p
Sm
JqY
Zm
Gu
BWnk
Sm
AOoLs
Rm
[dLm
Es[m,
NlThd
Th_h
2000,
U,
Nl
Ud
1000
URm
CTu
200,
JqY
YW.
LQdp
ARu
Tl
CdL.
Ss
JRU]
Nu
Ljl
RXkRm,
AkRl
ZV.
RY]
TPjRl
dLh
U]m,
TojYm.
RXkRm,
jm
EPV
C
TQm
JYWl
61
AYtu
YlTPVLj
Ul
RV.
NUUpX.
Sm
B]p
BrU]m
SUd
CqY
SmU
SPju\.
TXRU] QeLs EPV SiToL[f Nt LYjRp
CR Sm EQWXm. SiToLs JYd JYo RW[ULf NX
NnYoLs. TV A[p LQdl TolT CpX. B]p AR
NUVm LdLR, ARj RY Gu ]dm J STo Ru
SiToLs Vdm LWh Uhm Yej RWUhPo. Gu TQjp
LdLR
Gu
Yo.
Ut\T
TQm,
ER
ApX
ReLs
LVp
Rp
YejRW
UhPoLs.
T]k
YPeLd
uTpXm
Tu\
TQm,
YeVYPV
TQm
Gu
GiQYUhPo.
LWQeL[p
Ru
TmTm
AL
A[m,
NXYdLUhPo.
AYo
AR]j
RVL
62
RY\]
Yp
Ym
TQjR
Yjd
SpX
Yl
WfN]Vf NUdLYY
LhPVm
SpX
NkR,
RhPm
Tu\Ytp
CTu\
LhP
u\.
ThP
TQm
CWi
63
Gu
.100
UhmRu
Gu
NkRNULl
Tp
Npu\u.
CqY RLs ReLs Yt Tt\ TQj]j ReLs
TQUL ]dLUp RhP u TQUL ]lTR av
U (House Money) Gu AZdu\]o. CRuT Yt Tm
\V ToLs AR Nu YpX. Cu Nu\m S[
im Yk AR GlTm CZkhjRu NpYoLs. CR
R XhNdLQdp _jR u hd Nu J Yep
Am Ru U] TVp TQjRl ThkRp, Uo J
URm Lj AkRl TQjR Yj TV A[p R CZdL
YnlT CpX. AYu U]m ARt EPuTP UhPo. J
URjp p YkR TQm SmPV TQUL U]R[p Um.
ARY
RhPju
LQdp
Es[
TQm
SU
mTju
64
hPVd ZlTR
CVpXV
U]m
AUpXR.
JqYYm
TR]p
JqYYm
LXfNWm
CRu
Gu
ReL[l
NV]
Rjd
Y,
NV]
SmdLLu
Lsu\]o.
LPs,
BRWXV
NV]
Yrk
hdLhmT
Sm
AYoLs
Sm
LTjRd
Lhu\m.
CkRf Zp EXp ]N V V LilLm,
Ut\eLm Lrk Lidu\]. JqYYm YRU]
SmdLL[, LsLL[, TZdLeL[ EPV URoL[ ]N
NkdLm, Nok YX NnVm, Gojl TWPm Yi
Yu\.
JqYYm
RuPV
SmdLL[
Gu
CkRd
LsL[p
v^]uv
(Cognitive
HtTm
U]dZlTm
Dissonance)
Gu
AZdLlTu\.
C Tu\ X ZkRLd HtTYpX. H]p
AYoLs HtL]Y GkR XV] LjLm LidLpX.
U]X
TjRYoLdm
GRm
kLsm
Nd
65
CpXRRp
CkRl
jRoLdm
WfN]
U]V]
CpX.
GkRl
WU]
WfN]Lm
LsLl
HtTYpX.
CpX.
NVXm
ReLs
NnYRtl
Lsu\]o.
SmdLd
V
NpXlT]p
ELkRTp
YL[d
AYoLs
JqY
Lijd
tm
LXjtl
ApX Lhj
SmdLV
YrdLVm
Gp
AYoLs
RiPo
Ru RXYu
UtYR
Utd
CpX.
Ls[j
YjR
ReLs
RVWL
Es[]o.
ReLs
SmdLLs
EPVUdmT
Tojd
- 849
66
Yrp
WfN]L[
LjL[m
Htd
EYdLR
Lsu\]o.
NVeL[m
SmdLLm
TV
A[p
dLpLs
HtTP.
]N
YrdL
RY
NnmT
AlTRu
CYW
jd
Sm
YkR
Lsu\u.
LsLL[
AYu
GpXm
3. U]] HUtTYoLs
Rp CWi YLVP Smp TmTX]o u\Y
YLVV
Nok
Es[m.
Sm
NVjRf
Gu
B]p
YjRlTYpX.
NVXV,
Ltj
AYt\
VVlTjd
Lsu\m.
Gu
Nphf
NpRp,
TnV]
Htd
Ls[Up,
TZm
NpX
Gu
SmT
WRU]
LVeL[j
]N
Nnu\m.
TXRW
UQm
Nn
LiP
LPsL[l
67
Utm
Yv
LQdhd
LVeL[f
Tu\Yt\
Nnu\]o.
kR
GkR
SmdLV
URU,
LP[
- 293
1. NoPV ToY
Sm J NVjRl TodmTR Ap SUdf NRLU],
SU Ljd JjYWd V AmNeL[ UhU Todu\m.
GRm
UVLl
TolTR
CpX.
UVo
EPjRp
68
Sm
SmdLL[d
LlTtd
Lsu\m.
NhL[d
2. NoPV SPjR
HRY J NVX Sm NnV BWmj u\m. LXl
Tdp Sm NnY RY Gu RV BWmdu\. CkR Y
GkR Fdm TL Gu RYLj Ru\. B]p Tp
Sm NVpL[ UtY Sm RthPm GuTR Uhu
SU Ydm \] \Ts[ GuTRm EQojm.
SmUp AR]j Red Ls[ V. G]Y HtL]Y \V
TQm,
SWm
WVUhPm
LWYjdLLY
Nn
AkRd
LVj]
du\m.
Ym
ERWQUL
AYP]
LUlTju\]o.
YmTVL
X
SWeLp
AkRl
TiQ
GpXf
NjRm
UQU]
UReLXV
YLWj
Ye]p
Ti
RokRdLpX
TX
YPeLs
Gu\,
LxPlTh
TYm.
A
AY
FdLpXm
AqY
SPjRp
SU
RYL[
SUd
NTXd
69
Tef
AYoL[
NkR
RhP[oL[l
SmdLLs
TjRUhp
EPdLlTu\].
AR]j
]N
Rem
]N
YojRLm,
uTW
YojRLm
Tu\Ytp
DTPdP.
CTu\
RhP[W]
AWV
WLx
_u_uYX
CkVu
Lf\kR
J\
VT
\V
NmTloLs.
TUdLs
Uhm
\YL
Zj
GuTR.
Es[u.
B]p
NRWQ
Vm
Vo
URoL[p
NpYRm
Lhm
CpX.
CpXhPm
AkR
P,
Y]m
AYoL[LY
EiUp
HRY
SpX
Xp
LWQm
Ltjd
TWhd
LiP
CkYoLs.
AUhm
Shl
Tef
NkR
ERWQUL,
iPLXUL
C\ed
LiPRu Cdu\.
CkR
GiQlZ
UNU]
[Y
70
LlTtYRtLL
TmTX]o
ReLs
RYLk
TPm
Vj]
TmT
ReLs
LVlTjRY
\UV
Nnm.
Ufd
G]Y
LsTYoLs
Yt
RYLs
RYRXLd
LQdlThj
RX,
LXlTdp
Ls[d
hPj]WL
NnVm,
Xo
YdLm
RPe
hP]o.
ClT
u\o.
AYW
ERV[oLs
G]Y
UQYoL[VY
AlTV
hu\]o.
USs
im
\V
71
BWnkRp
Ut\YoLs
UWL
]o
YX
A]Ym GoTolT Tp
EtNLUL
NnR]o.
YX
AYoLs
.1000 Tt\YoLs
CpX.
Sm
L
PdLl
Tt\YoLdd
LVm
dLRRL
AYoLs
AkRd
LVj]
mT
YiV
NnR]o.
B]p
Ld
\Y]
.100I
TX]Ll
Um Ut\
NnY
NoPV
VVm
ToY
Gu
Utm
SmT
BWmjRPu,
SPjRVp
ReLs
RPok
AlTP
Np
RY\]
EeLs
BWmjRp
SPjRL[
LXlTdp
AkR
VVlTjd
TnL[
Ls[
EeLPV
72
Su GV Thp t\U?
GkR J URdm Ru]l TtV J SpX GiQm L
L dVm. Tm t\YLs P ReLs RWl VVm Gu
Ju\ YjlToLs. TRp CpXR Xp GkR J
YL] Kh]m
J LVd
P Ht\ Lm RVeYo.
Tm.
A]YdU
Nnu\m.
NV]
YpRu
Ru
GRm
Tu\m
NVLjRu
Gu\
SmdL
Rm
jRLeL[.
Sm
VdLY
TNdL
CkRl
jRLm
P,
Sm
GpXm
SU
Gum,
NnV
Yim
Gum
YjYRV
Gp
Sm
QjRV,
Gum,
SPYdLL[V
EiUVf
NpXl
Utd
T]p
Sm
ReL[l
UlL[V
Lis[]o.
mUVL
Lm
Yjs[]o
AkR
Es[.
Gm
GkR
GkRl
TRL
EVoY]
GuTRt
SmdLLs
SPjRm,
iLXL
EeL[p
Tt
AYoLs
\V
NuL[d
Au\P
VtVm
Tt\m
NdL
EiUpXR
ReLs
Yr]
GdLm
ZkRLd
Gum
eLs
GqY[
73
EiUp
UjYoLs,
YZdLOoLs,
Es[
\kR
URoLs
TXo
AR
Ru]mdL
B]m
AYoLs
]du\oL[
ReLd
EiUp
GqY[
AkR
Rm
A[d
Gu
AYoLdj
AqY[
RklTpX.
ERWQjtf
NpX
YX
B]p
Tef
AdLVl
NkR
TYL
Yp]oLs
Vm
LjR
SmYpX.
TmTX]o
ClTR Pf
Nt AZLLm Nt
YVR]Yd
LdmTm,
Wu
Ldm
U]ds
UVRVd
YV
EQWUp
TQ
SmU
NR]Lu
NVjp
AR
Uhhm.
Gu]Yu\p
Ru]mdL
TX
SLp
RL
Ll
TV
SPkR
TX
BWmdLlTm
RpLs BWmjR
BWmdu\]o.
B]p
AYoLp
74
Gu
AZdu\]o.
AYoLu
LjlT
TojRp.
TVRLj
AlT
Rum.
B]p
AkRl
Wf]
GlTU
Es[RPl
SmUp
AjRYo
CdL.
TXY
RL[l
Todm
CVtLXV
JR
Ydu\]o
GuTRm
dLX]
BWmT
Lf
NmTkRULd
PdLd
TtRP]V
J
RhP
lhP
SmUp
ARj
ReL
Gu\pXm
RuPm
CdL
Yim
Gu
]lTYo
VWL
- 482
75
NRLl
ToYVp
RhP[oLs
TXm
ReLs
YX
pXo
GuTYo
GV
Hu
Y]eLu
Es[
SmdL]X,
Ut\
UdLPm
SpX
Xd
th
JWVLf
EfNeL[j
RPUXV
Es[.
TmTm
Vm,
AR]XV
RLs
SU
TV
Uhu
NRLl
XTeL[d
Yru
ToYVp
TX
ApX
LhP
Au\P
ALj
76
lXo
NoYk,
LXmV
BnY[o
TpLXdLZLeLp,
]Yo
NV]
LXdLp
lTp
TmTm
Gu
UlPlThP.
dV
AmNULj
RPL[l
YdLlThP.
1976p
Jmd
ThLs
SPk
77
RhP[oL[L
CpXR,
NRWQ
TdLlThPYoL[.
CkRl
jRLjR
LdLlTm
VN]Lu
NVpTRp
RXf
NnVj
RkRYoL[
YjR,
AYoLs
78
Nd ULs
Sm NLjp TmTX] URoLs, TWVo VTp,
RfN Rm u, i LRLs T, Vt YVRV
u Eom
YdL
URoL[LY
Es[m.
TWTp
YrkdL
Ynl
Es[R?
Gu
TV
RPoLRL[l
TojR
oUV]
AY
YrdLV
GRm
BWmdu\]o.
BWnk
NLju
Todm
A]j
U]R,
VL[m,
GpXYt\m
Nnu\]o.
\L[j
XhVYLp
TmTX]o
YrdLp
kR
ReLs
BWnfLdLLd
LpXlThP]o.
TWP
Uhm
Ll
TV
YtVl
Tt\m
79
\kR
C[m
URLu
YrdL
Ld
L]U]RL Es[.
UtLiP CWiRU] YrdL \L[ AXl Todm
Vm, YVR], RtlT] XhVYLm P, ReLPV
YLd
NdUhjR]m
Gu
Sm
u\
RpYL
TWL[m,
XhVYL[m
TV
A[p
YrdL
\m
Ut\eLs
JW
Yrp
UVLY
YmT
Es[.
AR]
Htd
GdLUp
LXjRd
LPjd
LiP
NpRp
Ttm,
Yrm,
CkRl
TQ
TZdLRNj]p
YLWeLm
Sm
Nnm
A]Ym
RYL[m
YLl TolTm.
URoLs Uhu, ThLs P Ru Xk L
GRL UYpX GuTRt hPu CVdL V NhVL
Es[.
ARuT
JqY
Tm
HRY
Li
Cdm
L[eLs
Gm
GkR
TV
80
T[
LXLXjtm
GkR
RdLhhPp
ERm
Cuf
Nu
LiP
Ts
LiP
Cdm.
Tnd
Li
ALm
TXu
RWdV
Rp
A]Ydm
YNLm
\Y]
Llh
\Vj
RokRjd
NUVm
TXm
TY]RLm
\Y]
AR
Llh
YiPm
A]Ydm
GuTYoLs
Uhm
iQlTm Xm Rp \d Ud Ls[Xm Gu AU
YZeLlThP. VVlT TojRp CWi ULQeLm Es[
UdLm
NWNVL
\L[V
ULQjp
ULQjp
KW[
JW
RokRjdL
70%
80%
To
To
RU]
Bs
Yim.
Rp
B]p
\Vm,
CWiPY
\Vm
Llh
_o
TupYV
RokRjR]o.
PjRR
UdL[
RVL
ARV
U
Htd
Gd
LiP]o.
Ljj
Ld
ReLs
\Y]
lTjR
YlTjRj kR]o.
Sm A]Ym U]R[p NmTL[L,
ARY Vj
VWY
YjRX
YlTPVL
CpXhPm
81
LXjp
AYVpXm
JY[
NV]RLY
NVeL[l
Ls[m,
\V
U\m
CR
TZdLjRNju
YlTPL
Sm
HRY
Gem
CkRp
GRU
YeLUp
mT
UQU
NnV
VR
rX
EYm.
CVpY
CpX.
TX\ULs
Es[
JYW
ULtd
LsYRu
Xm
Tm
YtL[
EVokR
Xd
Yu\]o.
A]Ydm
YrdL
Ym NXYj
u\]o.
mVR
mT TZd Lsu\]o.
82
LdLd g
SU
TZU
FolTdLm
Ju
Rug
LdLdm
Ei.
JqYYdm
Tug
ReLs
Gu\
HtL]Y
JYo
JYo
VULm,
JYdLYo
ASYVU]
SjRWYodLj
GuTR
hPm
UdL
CVX.
NR]
GkR
Nn
TojRp
RYlTm.
RYVu\p
AkRl
CRVpXm
TZV
HRY
Td`eLds
Ts
CkRm
NpX
VhPm
AR
ThL[
ApX
TeLd
Rp
Yim.
AqY
Ss
JeLL
NnRp
Tl
RYVt\,
TiL
HW[U]
83
- 341
SU
RWjt
TZV
Up
EPUL[
UjRp,
Utm
Ttd
AYtu
LsRp
ARd
LdLd
GiQlZ
Gu
\Xm.
CkR
fNoh
RXo
(Richard Thaler)
CkR
[]l
TX
TpLXdLZLju
u]m
TjR
LlTLs
AYo
Tu\
NR]Ls
Xm
JqYYm
TXY
(_.Gp.
d]hf
(J.L.
Knetsch)
Gu\
A]Ydm
LlTV
CXYNULd
NdXhPd
Lh
AR
mTYoLs
84
LlTdl
TXL
Utd
Ls[Xm
Gu\
Ynl]m
Nph
ARu
YiU]p NdXhdl
TXL
Ttd
]o.
Ls[Xm
Gu
Ld
LlTVd
AkR Ld
Lh
LlTVl
TmTX]
UQYoLs
Vm
ReLs
NjdL[V
TZV
Lo
Rp
\VLf
NnVRYoLs
GpXm
TmTm
SmPV
EPL[
SWeLp
LoQu
85
iP
LXjt
TWd
Lim,
TVk
Lim
CPgNp
Nnu\
NUVp
TjWeLs
RV
SU
TZdLYZdLeL[
Su
AkLiP
LjRp,
Tv
dLh
Yej
RRp
Tu\
86
Tef
NkRVl
TjRUhp
CkR
GiQl
ZVp
AlTY,
Yek
RjRY
SUd
HRY
LmTu
\lT
YmT
Gum
Giu\m.
tT]
NnYRp
Ym
]N
[VhLm
ATYm
ALUL
YojRLm
DT
RV
A]jRU]
Es[YoLPm
ALUL
NnR
FL
BWnfp
GiQl
NnTYW
NnTYdl
Tt
YPYPm
\YLj
R]
CPjp
Cdm.
YX
Um
FL
87
88
AYu AlTjRu
Smp TmTX]d ULTWRm Su Rm. RoUm
AYW NLRWoLm SpXYoLs. VRm Ut\ NLRWoLm
LhPYoLs.
GqY[Wm
EiU?
VRm
AYW
LRV
A[d
Uhm
LRp
Gjd
RoUo
LiPm
SpXYWLm,
Sm
VR]u
Yim
Gu\p
Sm
Ydm
A[d
JqY
TvRVm LhPYoL[?
EiUp RoUo J SpX AWN]L CkRp Ru]V, Ru
U]VV P p RtLXm. fNVm Ru ShP Yj
R
CdLd
P.
RoUo
jNV]
URWL
JYWl
Tt
SpXYo
Gu\,
LhPYo
Gu\
89
NVjRm
TolTXV
\T
Es[.
JdLjR
ATXY
SU
EVokR
Gu
AlTPV]
SmUp
EQWV.
SmdLLs
Utm
SPk
TmT
YL]
tT]V[o
TiLp
TXo
PYd LPL[m
UhU
Gu
AZdLlTu\.
CRl
Tt
Sm
HtL]Y
EPmT
BWmjYoLs.
H]p
jRlWU
LXm
GlTm
AXV
GpXYt\m
SU
YnlPVYt\V
SmdLL[
TolTm.
EiU
SU
Sm
GkR
Gu
SmdLL[
dm
EPdm
90
rLiPYtp
GkR
CWi
AhPL[
Gjl
ToloLs?
A
RkR
BV
CWi
NnR]o.
NndLd
Y],
m.
AhPL[
eLs
Rp
TmTX]YoLs
UhU
ASLUL
Ro
ARV
Ro
Jt\lTP Gi CkRp
Jum
TRLpX.
AqY
YWdLP.
TmTm
U\]
Gu\
AhPVl
TolTm.
ARu
u\m
JY[
ARuu
EWj
CpX
Gu\p
GpXm
EWj
Es[
Gu
Gem
CkhPp
Rp
NpXlThP
91
dU
AkR
CWi
AhPL[
UhU
Ro
UtLiP
NR]Lp
Utm
TmTX]o
NnV
RY\LY
RokRjR]o.
CkR NR]u Xm SU NRLU] NVeL[l TojRp
Gu\ GiQlZ dLlThP. GqY\u\p Sm kRYW
NpXlThP t]f N Gu dL UhU BRWeL[
Ru\m.
RY
Gu
dL
YL[j
RY
CpX.
GuT
CkhPp
EiUVP.
LdLu
\m
JW
Ll
Ys[d
GuT
LdL
TnVm.
dmYW
Ls[lTu\].
RtLLUL
hPu
EiU
L[
Iuvu
Gu
Htd
RY
Gu
TmTlT
HtTjm.
hPd
Li
Gp
GqY[Ru
Yt
NRLU]
T\
hLs
m.
YkRm
\V
Gp
SWm
SUd
ClTYd
92
TQjR
CZdLY
Nnu\]o.
CkR
Confirmation
Bias
lhP
TeL
Yjdm
STo
NmTkRUL
TXlTjd
YWdV
Wp
Lsu\o.
TRLU]
AR
NnL[,
U\ku\o.
NUVm
Ju
LhTpX
u]p
LlTV
LmTp
YX
Todm
AYXoLs
TXm
RU
AmNeL[V
Todm
RhP[oLs
\V
Yjs[]o.
TeL[ ALm
Zm
Yj
LQSWjp
Am
JW
\]
NokR
RXZL
UPdm
GuTRp
CkRl
NR]
Nn
TojRp,
GkR
LWm
93
HVP]V
UV]
SmdLd
Yk
AkR
SmdLV
BZULl
Tjd
Lsu\]o.
GpXU
SpXRu
Gu
AYo
A]YWm
Um.
YdLlTm
Am
A[
LVeL[f
U\kYm.
AR
TXY
Sm
NVj]
SpX
Ynl
Gu
Ym.
AL
Xd
tm
NkmT
Zp
NkR
NjdLs
EiUXV
A]jRm
TV
CZk
A[p
LUV]
94
EXL UVm
EXL
YkhP].
UVm,
YrY
TmTm
GpXYt\m
UVm
GpXm
Yjl
Tm
Gu
NLm
HW[U]
GpX
TPpL[L
TPpLs
UhU
u
Es[].
CPjp
jd
LsYm
Gum
- 339
LNl]j
Red
Lsu\R?
SUd
dLl
dL
95
Es[
Gu
TodLXm.
TmTX]
YReLs,
GpXm
B]p
JRU]
ETPReLs
UVj
[dm
Rt\m
UVV
GuTRLY
Y.
Es[.
ETPReL[
URjp
YQe]m
HW[U]
EiUp
RnYeL[
LPs
JYW.
Sm
GpXm
AYd
EYm
GpXU
im
im
LPsRu
Su
Gu
LPs
_UL
Gu
EQmT
Npf
Np
96
AjR
\V
G]lTu\.
PV.
(UtLiP
CkRd
NVeL[
LsL
AjYRm
ElTjd
Ls[
ClT
Ck
URm
UVV
hhf
oYU]
BWnf
LsYm.
SUd
Chp
Li
SU
AXYNVl
TodL
ThNjp
Uhu
NlRj]l
EQm \u LLd \.
LhL V.
EQm
RuU
Y[Yp
TjRUhm
Tu\Y L
EPVY.
SU
EiUp
UpV
AoL[
UXmT
YnlLs Es[].
97
YQom,
Ys[hd
YRUL
ERWQm YiUu\p
LnfNp
SWjm,
LolT
XRU]
Cm)
EQL[,
RYLdLL
XRU]
ALm
EiQ
NjdLu
Yim
(LpVm,
GuTRXV
YWm
YkhPRp
GRGRV
Hu
EiTRtd
Gu RVUp
Ljd
Li
Cdu\m.
ClT UV Gu NVjd YYm. EXLm GuT
TnV, LtT]V PV. B]p Sm EXLm ClTjRu
Cdu\ Gu Smd Li ClTTp EXLm CpX.
EX]l TtV SU Ap TmT LtT] UhU. SmUp
EX] ARu lTUQjp TodLY, EQWY VY
V.
JqY
Em
EX]
JqY
RULY
Gu
]jd
Li
Cdm
EXLm
UVRu.
98
ERWQUL
Es[]o,
SUd
AXV
RV]
A\p
HW[U]YoLs
CkRmP.
TdLi
TnVu
TYm
SUdd
Lhm.
WfN]
Gu]Yu\p
SU
Yru\m.
SU
U]p
EiUp
LL[p
S[ds
SU
A]j
Sm
\TL[
AXYNm
RtLX
SU
LhL
Nn
Ls[
TolT
LhPlTu\
CpX.
GuTR]l
NVm
Tj
SUd
Sm
GqY
ARl
.200
Gu\
Giu\m.
.300
Gu
.310d
TWm
TYm
ApX
.314d
YeLj
RVWYm.
HRY J Ts ERWQUL Y[Vp Tu\Yt\ J
P_u, AW P_u Gu LPdLWo Gu X ]p \V
SWm, lTL BiLs, CWi Y[Vp Uhm Tm Gu\m,
RVL X LhLUp P_u LQdp YeYo. P_p X
Nu]p P_u LQdpRu Ts Pdm Gu Smu\m.
J PY LRp (TAO) J We Y[olTYu X WeL[l
TWUj YYu. ]m LX Su EiPLs EQm UX
u
EiPLs
EQm
RYR
AYu
YZdLUL
99
im
LXp
Su
Gu\
YVV
USs
LPdLj
YeVPu AY im AU APkm.
SU RRVoLs Qm SUd Uhm CpXUp TU
Gu]? Sm AYoLd GkR Rjm N[jRYoLs ApX.
Th_h SWjp CYt\ Sm Lj RYL k Ls[Xm.
Np, EWm Tu\Ytt YZeLlTm UVm \l, SW
Ylp EVo Tu\Yt\d LUVL Godm UdLs Utm
UdLs BRW GodLhLs Tt\d\ Th_h, YhRm EVo,
NmT[
EVo
(AW
FVo),
U\L
YLu
Lm
Ht\m
RL
GpX
XYm
HH
HZLs
im
hPjp
SeLs
Bhd
YkRp
XYVd
JW
AqY
SPdL
SWjp
Yim
ASLUL
NjVm
CpX
GuTm,
Gu\p
CPp
Es[
HW[U]
Cum
Sm
TQU
Y[ofp
APV
100
2)
C\m
ms[
AmdL[
hh,
Es[
SUd
VTWm
ApX
JlTkRm
GqY
Gu AZdLlTu\.
101
WfN]
GqY
NpXlTu\.
ARY
AkR
SmdLLs,
Tu\Yt\l
TjU
lTeLs,
Es[.
kdm
G]Y
Rm
JYWV
JW
m.
WYLPu
TfYojR
SPjTYoLs,
hPh
HUtTYoLs,
tT]l
WLs,
N,
Rl
Gu
Es[
LsLL[
Gp
T[m
RLf
NkRp
ALm
Nnm
Cdm.
JqY
URm
TpLs
NpYp
UdLs
LsLs
RLu
kR
A[
LjRL
GkR
Htd
Ls[lTm.
Ljdm
Cp
BRWYLY,
Su\Lj
Rm.
RoRp
SWjp
JqY
Lhdm
GWLs YZdl T
102
NoPVRLm
LsLs
Lh
AkRl
[YRu
Xm
JW
STW
U\],
LsL[d
LhP]o.
]d
LdLlThP Ls.
AUdLp RL J RtSn TWm Zp Es[.
A
600
To
YW
CWiRU]
UkL[f
ETVjRp
200
TWd
LpXd
T
m.
ARtLL
AW
Uk
AY
Nnu\.
LlTt\
m.
Uk
BI
UkL[f
Nnu\.
Ap
Uk
CIj
103
RokRjRp
400
To
C\kTYoLs.
Ut\YoL[d
up
Te
(33.3%)
Ynl
Es[.
GpXm
Gj
Es[]o.
Ym
RXZ]
LjdL[d
Gum,
LWlTo
\lTTYVpXm
LWjRp
CkRd
Lpm
LjdL[V
LWm
Gum
u\].
TQ
TV
TQm
YdL
Gu]Yu\p
CZkRYoL[
AL
\V
SWeLp
BTjR]
Rhj
TV
XTm
CpXhPm,
RokRdu\]o.
.1000
SxPm
Lh]p
CpXR
URjp
104
Xo
GlTm BWVUp
\Y]
NVeLdL
J X, lhP,
AL
dVjYm
- 510
105
St Cu St
Sm
GpXdm
YnlpX
Gu\m
J
Sm
BN
AR
Ei.
\Y\Y
HdLjPu
AdL
Gum
SUpXm
LlTV
B[Lm,
Lm
GuT
NkRLU.
YXdl
TXL
UQm
NnkRX
SU
Yrp
TV
Ls
hPsR]ULY
Cdm.
C\kR
YV
GjlTm.
ApX
CR
OTLm
Y Y Gj Y Np TVlTRp
SmPV
NkR
jV
ETVj
YZdLm
106
Gu
L
PdLRRp
XUV
LhLp,
WUL
ClT
Sk
AkR
U]SXm
SjRRLm,
BhPRLm
Li
Tp
AjRjR
TjRYo
AkR
Ym.
J
Ti
AYPV
A\L[l
TodL
BWmj Yo.
im J A\p JYo Lm jVNULm, L
NLULm, YjR TXm CkRo. YWpXm J Ti
TPm YWk AY[ TXReLp LX NnY TXm,
jWYR
NnY
TXm
YjkRo.
Gu]Yu
Rp
TojR
TjVm
RXVL
mV
AR
ClT
CkkRp
Su\L
Ckdm.
AlT
843
ApXRYoLs
RUdjRU
EiPdd
Lsm uTjR AYPV GLs P
AYdf NnY L]m.
Sm ClT uhNh TVv (Hindsight Bias) Gu\ GiQl
ZVl Ttl TolTm. J ERWQjt NpXlT]p X
YPeLd u]p HRY J Yu AYu Tt\Pu
CdmT
RuPV
\UL[
EeLs
Lh
CdLXm.
eLm
TV
A[p
AR
107
LhPVm
YrjoLs.
JSs
AkR
TV
B[L
LrfV
U\kR
YYn
Gum
ClTm.
GpXPm
LlTV
YVXV
Np
Tn
\UUl
ATW
\U
TUlThd
Gu]Yu\p
LsYm.
Sm
Li
CkR
Gum
Cp
EiUVLY
U]RWl
Es[
AY]
TWhVRLm,
SPdm
GuTRtL]
ALs
RXV
Rp
TmTm
Ck
RV.
TdmT
CYoRu
Vo
Gu
LXLWu
Gu
JqYYm
Ju
B[L
CkhPp
BPUhPo
CkR
khP,
AqY[Ru.
AYo
h
Cp
\kR
AYo
AYVL
TdLm
NRLUL
dVU]
NVm
AlTV
LRlT
Xo
NkRLjd
CPU]YoL[L
CRlTXY
Tef
NkRp
GlTl
TQm
108
RkR]
Gum,
SpX
JlTkReLs
ThP]
Gum,
Hu
Hu
TQm
ThPYoLs
TP
GpXm
VpX
GqY[
Gum,
CXTeLs
AlT
TojRoLs
TQm
Gum
[dLULd YoLs.
CkR
GiQl
Ru]mdLVm
TXdm
Ru\.
ReLs
TnV]
RVjRm,
\UV]YoLs
Gu
RhPeLp
UNU]
[Ls HtThm.
CkR Hind Sight Bias ALm TlT YWXt]l T
NnTYoL[jRu. TmTX] LVeLs J YWXt Lrf,
J TV To, SPk kR uRu GRlTu\. G]Y
TmTm Yt Tt\YoLPV LRm, VVeLm UhU
AYtp ALm T NnVlTh Cdm. Rt\YoL[l TtV
YWX
TmTm
AdLlTm
GuTRP,
Vm
NnRYoLu
YrdLLs
NnVlTPUXV
109
NmTkRU]
NVeLs
TtV
TjdLLs
Tu\
YkR
NnL[l
Tjl
TolTRtm
TV
Cdm.
AYW
TZV
CYo
RXYWL
Ym
FPLeLp
jVNm
TmTm
LXjs[
NjVd
TLp
Ls
Ld
Gu
SmYm,
AR
Tu\
QPV
ClT
NUVRU]
RtlT]
RojdL
JYo
YiV
LVeLs
GjR
Gum
\lT],
BTjLs
AR
hPhP
NUVm
LVeLs
Gum Sm SmTm,
TNm
GuTRm
GoTWR
LWQeL]XV
NQp
Lf\kR
WoLs
AL
GidLp
\jRXYWLm
YdLlThPo.
AYo
TgNu
110
LpmT
UhU
TNlTu\o.
AYo
NRWQU]
Nd
Ao_]]l
TVuTj
Gjf
Nu
YkYo.
xQo
RuPV
TPd
GWLY
UhU
xQu
BTjR]Yo
GuTRl
G]Y Sm C\kR
NkRp
Nnm
UdLs
CkR
uhNh
lhP
LmTu
TeLs
lhP
111
oYLm
NnTYoLdl
TU]
\U
CpX
LXeLp
TX
SWeLp
\lTLf
112
Gu t\pX
Ld LVYoLs Gu Sm Lm J STo P Su\L
Njl
TojRp,
Ru
Nnm
JqY
NVm
NnV
SmT
WVfjRm
Nnu\]o.
ARtLu
TmTm
HRY
NdL
Tu
NVpLs
AYoL[
]m
YkmT
Nnu\].
Gu
]du\]o,
Smu\]o.
AYo
\l,
VVVjdLLl
TW
A]YWm
Lu
TZdLm
CpXR,
SmUl
hh
R]
ShtLLl
TWP
TXY
YkR
mTj]
GL[,
RY\]
LVeLp
DTm,
SU
NkRm
Utm
NnmT
AYd
LlTV
YV
113
TQm
NmTkRlThP
NVeLp
GqY
Tl
RVR,
ClTjRu
SPdm
Gu
LdL
CVXR
Um
HYRt
Ynl
Es[
Te
Gu
YeLUp
hPu
C\ehPp
TWYpX.
HW[U]
YnlL[j
RY\
hd
LiPRu
AYU]m
APRp,
TQm
CZjRp,
VdLY
LhP
BWnYRP
TmTX]YoLs
Jum
NnVUp
114
- 466
Smp
TmTX]o
Gu
AZdLlTu\.
GRm
NnYRP
YmT
AR]j
NnY
CpX.
SUdj
CPjp
GdjRlTL
UhdLi
hPp!
Gu\
115
RhP[oL[l
RYRXL
TjRYW
YjRYoLs
HtL]Y
_dWRVLY
GkR
\m
Gu\
TVjp
TmTX]YoLs
XV
ClToLs.
AR
NUVm
HtL]Y
\khP,
SpX
XTm
TeL[
HRY
RY
SokRm
[VhP
jVNUL
YemT
Gu
HRY
Sm
Rtd
SU
ARV
RY
Ls[Xm.
Yj
Ap
YeYRp
ApX,
B]p
RthPp
SUL
Gu]
UjY
TlTj
RokRdLUp,
AVp
ApX
UdLu
GuT
NpYRd
Lh
TR]
Ld
Ql
Utm
L]m
T]p
NTeL[
Bm.
AYd
Yt
ts[YoLs
Gm
NLl
BRWPu
AYoLs
lTjt
AY]
116
NVLl
XVV
TLR
TeL[
TeL[m
tL
tLl
TVlTm
Sm
TVlT\m.
Su\L
Ym.
GlT
SWm
tLUp
Gu]
NnY
Gu\
TVm
Ykm.
EP]
TUVL
YjlTR
Gu\m
TVju
CpXRYoLs
GlTU,
GpX
rXLU
117
YtV[oLs LR
GpXdU Yt T\ Yim, HRY NdL Yim
Gu\
Ym,
Yt
BoYm
Tt\,
TR]Ls
SpX
CdLjRu
XUd
Tu\Yt\l
Nnu\.
YrdLp
YkRYoLPV
Tjm
AYoL[
NjWm,
Sp
Toj
YXp
ClTRm,
AqY[
NVLl
TdLR,
AlTV]p,
JeLLl
Su\Ll
TdLUp
TlT
RY\?
CkkRp
Sm
u]P
hPsR]ULj
Rm.
B]p
HR
CPjp
Yjd
LtT]VL
SPjRlTm
Yjd
LsYm.
JqYuu
u]m
ReLs
YojRLs
CxPjtj
YNVL
Rh]m
Ykm.
NkRolTYNjRXV
JY[
Lf
\kR
AYtp
YnlpX.
HRY
B]p
Ju
Gm
LdLQdL]
ElTVL
WeLs
GR
Vu\p
118
XhNm
WeLs
JqY
YPm
HRY
Cdm.
AoxjRXV
ATX,
JXo
TV
EXu
\Uu
\kR
TeNkR
Ym
Yp]W]
HW[U]
NiPdd
RhP[oLm
[mhP]o.
TeNkR
YWuTTh
AoxPjRp Ru TV B[]o Gu V RY Gu
YhP]o.
Sm
Su
TTh
\U
CpXRYo
Gu
GjR]To
Noks[.
\U
Thp
GuTRl
Te
Tt
Tu\]o
Ce
GuTRV
LsV
CpX.
Cdm.
AYWp
LdV
LXjp
Ll
TV
119
TQdLWo
BLV.
B]p
RLl
TQm
Noj
EPV
RpLp
NkRolTeLs
KW[
ER
Tu\Ytp
AxPjRp
HtTm
TlT
Su
TkYRX,
Nt
uhV
Yk
YRX,
YnlTd
LhP
hPYoLs
iP
LXm
LjdL YiVRm.
TX
\UV]
LXOoL[
P,
R]
RkRV
ClTYWP
UQm
Nn
HRY
LiPp
TV
RXYu
Wp
JYo
[Vhp
EXLLlTV
Yu\
ApX
120
EXL
NmVuL[L
ClTYoL[
AL
NoYYol
TVv
(Survivorship
Gu
Bias)
Nu
TRp
APkRR
Sm
LQdp
Gjd
[Vu\]o.
AR]l
Tt
\V
Am,
Ll
TWY
dLh
[VYoLs.
Cp
Te
Ydu\
GuTR
Vm
UdL
V.
TR.
AYo
Cdm
Am
Su
W]L
iu\]o
YW
Yim,
ApX
Gu
s[Ld
ReLs
Es[
s[L[j
BoYjR
121
B[L
kRYW
Yt
NX
T\
Nn,
Ynls[,
RPL[m
BsYjl
URoLs
VPV
ERm
AYoLs
ReL[LY
Yt
TtjRp
CpXhPm
T\
Tu\Ytp
TV
TX
SWeLp
Ynl ALm.
ERWQUL
SPTu\].
Vo
YiU]m
LXk
Cdm.
hPjRhP
AR
SWjX
ApX
A[p
YlTsLs
NWPu.
Tdu\.
Wdu\].
CRl
Tt
SU
EPmp
AYtp
YL
TXRU]
Ju
J
(Serotonin)
AjVVjp
TV
TlLd
B[u\.
GuTR]p
URo
Ru
\U]X
NkRolTYNjRX
Su\Lf
Wdu\.
AqY
WkRPu
122
YmT
YW
Yim
Gu
TY
Tp,
Yt
WdL
Ydu\.
AY
AYPV
SP
EP
AYW
R,
\U,
RPeu\.
Rem\u
BWmTjp
AYo
Tu\Yt\ P
AR
EQoY
Ru
UP
Gu
Tu\Y
AYd
Gu]
Gum
J
RY
NnRm
TRL
Gm
UVV]
Ru]mdL,
BQYm
TRVL
Uu\].
AYm
ApX
HUt\m
HtTu\.
NWPu
A[
Uhm
TZdLiPm
YlTju\].
AYo
TX
KW[
AeL
GqY[
jRTp
ANLs
CkRm
YdLl
EiUV
U]]m,
RpLs
NWPu
A[Yd
\du\].
123
T[j
RVLl
Gj
GLdf
RokRdLY
Tm
TVuTu\].
EiUp
Cp
TV
WfN]
GeL
Yu\
Gu\p,
AYoLs
AlTlThP
Ljp
BiL[
BpT
R_v
Up
Yk
(Alpha
u\.
Male)
Gu
Lm
mu\]o.
G]YRu
TmTX]
TiLPm,
BiLm
WfN]Ld
B[u\]o.
GpXm N CRt Gu]Ru Gu\p, Sm Yrp
KW[ Yt TYRt \U LWQUL CkRm Ll TV
A[p Yt T\ AoxPm LWQm. AqY YtVl
Tt\ SToL[l Toj AlTV LlVjRp Tm RpL[
Ym. LXm U\ U\ Yt Tm YLs UhUpX, Yt
Gu\p Gu] Gu\ Lm Um. J LXjp L[V
APdm WdL Ru TiQd LjR LXm U ClT
GkR Ym mdm TLR AlTLdL Tt\YoLs Ti
Ru\]o. CkR AYNW EXp GpX \Lm L YLUL
Ut\lTh
Yu\].
G]Y
YLp
HtTm
124
125
[ds YX
A]jd \TLm WfN]Lm U]pRu Es[
Gu RkRu, RL gOLs SU U]m, A
Tu\Ytu ClPm Gu SmTlTm SWmUiPXm, Ap Es[
[, RiYPm Tu\ TLp HtTm Ut\eLdm SU
TZdLYZdLeLdm
RPehP]o.
Es[
RPoTl
HtL]Y
SPk
Tt
BWVj
Lis[
EVp
NpXXm.
CTu
CWidm
TXUL,
T[RWm
CWiu
Utm
LXYVL
[u
Es[
NmTkRlThP
L[
GdmT
[u
Gu]u]
Ut\eLs
HtTu\],
UjR
SWm
Dopamine - SmdL Ft
GlTRpXm Sm SpX TXu Pdm, J NkRNU]
Lrf
SPTm,
GoTodu\U
Tm
Yt
AlTRpXm
SU
Pdm
EPp
Gu
(Dopamine)
EPp
PTUu
A[
\u\.
Sm
EP]
AL
NkRNjRd
SmdLm Yu\.
Ldu\.
Rmm,
126
Wv,
CPeLdf
Tef
Nu
NkR
Rm
Utm
TXm
CTu\
CkR
TpY
PTUu
Wlp
Gu
lhP
U]m
GoToj
A[
CXTm
ARtl
PdLl
TZhPp
\m.
Gu]Yu
TojRp,
CkRd
LmTd
AdLlThPp
TV
A[
AR
XTU
TmTX]YoLs
AkRl
Teu
XTjRl
\kR
T
C\em.
XTU
NnVm.
Ll
TV
Tm
TV
TeLs
RhP[oLs
UPUPY]
YWm
VUp
]N
A[p
Hm.
NnjRsLp
pX\
XTm,
127
Eu
YmYW
TeLs,
SpX
Yim.
tUm
Xdd
AlTd
Ld,
PdmYW
PdmT
GuT
TX
LY]ULd
LNU]
SpX
LjdL
A[
Ye
Nn,
TXp
Tt
YdLR
Gu\
LiQu
EPp
Es[
PTUu
A[
\k
SmU
BrkR
B]p
LhPVm
SUdjRu
Yt
Gu
SmY
Cp
RthPp
GqY[
Tl
HtTm
Gu
U]fNo,
GfNhm RuU, o
128
Tef
NkR,
VTWm
Tu\Ytp
TQm
CZjRp,
Serotonin A[Yd
\TL[
\du\].
EYdu\.
CkR
HtL]Y
YlTs
JYo
Nnu\.
JRU]
TLlT.
B]p
CZku\o.
ApX
Wu
Go]p
BN
YojRLp
UVel
TV
TV
HUt\eLd B[u\o.
EiUp SpX \Um, Am, SpX URoLs BRWm
EPV TX RXToLs, \V SWeLp TV A[p vd
GjR Yrp u]s[]o. B]p NRWQU] URoLs
AqY Yt T\ YnlLs Ld\. SpX \U, R]m
CpXRYoLs
CR]
VtjRp
TV
RpLs
UhU
NjVm.
- 473
ARY
NkR
C\emT
A[
SxPm
129
u
LXm
TdLVpX
Qm.
Gu\p
]N
TQm
mTd
YojRLjp
SxPm
RtYm
Gu\
TVjp
WYLY
\mT
ALm
vd
GdLUp
Prefrontal Cortex - Uk
[u u\m Cdm CkRl T Ydm Tp
Es[ J LmlhPo TXf NVpTu\. Ym RLYpL[f
Noj YjRp, CdLd V RLYpLk Ls GjRp,
SU NnLVp [Vd V [Ls, TZV LrLdm
RtT
Sm
NnVd
NVpLdm
Es[
JtU
Es[YoL[
Au
APV[ULd
LRlTu\.
m.
CpXUp
WNYju
u\m
CkRpRu
TR,
TdLlTYRp
SpX
HRY
jp
jNL[L
ATYR]X
\T
HtTm
Ynl Es[.
NV] \p JYWp GdL VpX Gu\p,
TXRU] GiQl ZLs JYW Bhl TPd\ Gu\p
130
B]p
NVpTjRl
AlTVpX,
LmlhPo
TYpX
SU
R]LY
GuTRp
\Y]
AkR
WfN]
RLYpL[p
Yf
CpX.
RY\]
Sm
RVYRVm.
G]Y
RVjPm,
[d
LVm
ZlTm
NnV
HtTPXm.
CVX.
SmUp
B]p
RVUL
GkRd
TRL
RY
Gm
\ThP
NnY
Jum
Ld
L]UpX.
LtT]VLY,
jRj
[VhPLY
AYt\f
Nn
ATu\
TZdLlTjd
Utm
SWeLp
SpX
Tef
Tt
NkRp
Tt\,
dV
RVWL
Ls
Es[
Gdm
Tm
131
JudLu
CQk
RPo
NVpTu\].
EPV
CWim
CWi
TLm
hPjRhP
[u
Gu\ SWmj R
AUVRp
Tu\Ytdd
LWQUL
Es[.
YjRp
Tu\
LVeL[j
R]
ALlTjR
YiV
NdV
Adm
CYVm.
CY
CWim
Nok
RjRVL
SPdm
LVeL[
EQ
Cdm
CPjRm
EQojRp
Tu\
Rm,
Rp
JuWi
LsLdf
Npm
ShLs
TZV
JYW
Sm
hPh
TeLs
SWjp
C\eLULY
SUd
Ru\d
Hm
C\em
Uhm
m.
RPok
SpX
XTm
UU
SPk
HLULY
RWdV
132
Lhm.
AYt]
Sm
NVLl
Ls[Up
RY\hYm.
CkR
CVtLV,
(X
sL[l
TojRPu
ARV
WYL
YdL
CY
Tm
ERm.
YpXYoL[L
BhPRp,
JqYYm
Su
Th
NpXUp
UPp
Thp
SjR]o.
LXk
Nlm
Li
Rtl
Vdm
TnhPo.
kdm,
Gu]u]
\Ls
SU
YWdm
SmdLd
Gu
EVYPm
BXN]
Lj
LhP
\L
Vjhl u
BNV
uTjtd
LWQm.
BNV
hhPp
TojR
TXTo,
UdLs
BNlTPd
Gu
jRo
NVeL[f
Nt
YLl
TojRp
SU
ZlTeLs
133
XVL
AYt\
SmU
Tt]
Cdm
Y[oj
Gu
LsYRp
Gi
AY
jRo
UdL[,
eLs
Cu
Rp
BNlTYR
TV]Y.
TnV]Yt\
Yj
LPldm
SUdL
XeLm.
Ym
SpX
BNV
SPjRLs
LXlTdp
PYpXm
V.
134
]jd
Li
Cdu\m.
JSs
AYo
U\kmm.
AYW
SmUl
SUd
AkR
Y LPYW
CdLY
Nnm.
Ck
SUd
RX
Rm.
NpXl
T]p
Nucleus Accumbens
[u TLeLm
\T
EPVYWL
CdmT,
Sm
Pd
Xm
Sm[p
Es[
\TL[
135
V]f Ne
Lp, Ld Lh NX Utm NodLv Tu\ CPeLp
SmUp V]Vl TodL m. TmTm AYtu Lp J
Cmf NeVp Lh Yj ClToLs. ARl Tt J
Lj YZdLjp Ei. V] hVL CdmT J SpX
Cmf NeVp ARd Lh Yj YoLs Gum, iP
ShLs AkRd hV] AkRf NeV AjP, PUp
TWhPm SPj, SPj, RtlTn, AkR VtV hm
Gum, u AkRf Ne AdL VR Gu Su U]p
Tk LXlTdp uTP TX UPe GPm, YUm
V um AkR V] NeV Adm GiQjR A\Y
hm
Gum
\lTY
YZdLm.
Cp
NkRLlTYRt
TZu\.
LVm
Gp
NVm
ALm
im
VdLUp,
SPd\.
fNp,
im
Vt
YL]m
NnmT
NnVUp
KhRp,
AkRd
CNdL
JqY
JqY
VWm
Vj
Vj
UtYRL
Ru
YXV
JeLLf
NnYRXV
SmUp
136
AkR
TRl
TRVp
TZdLjRl
NkRNm
TjRUhp
Pdm
Gu\m,
RkRm,
AR]
ETVlTYWp
ReLs
TZdLjR
LhYRX
AULdL
ARu
GkR
ULs
[m
Su\Lj
HtTP.
Rm.
TR
AYoLPV
Gu\
SmdL
HtThPp
UhU
AkRl
TZdLeLk i YW AYoL[p m.
mTeLp
Es[
TZdLYZdLeL[
Gjd
LiPp
NLm,
mT
YNm
YTP]
CWi
YrY
LLd
L]m.
CWi
Tdm
CPp
Utd
[dm
Ls[
VRRp
WiTLs
GqY[
LXlTdp
VU]
RL
mTjRm
RjPd m.
EQlTZdLjR
Gp
Ut\
TXRU]
Gjd
VR
TWmTW
LiPp
TZdLm
GuRu
VLs
GpXm
LLd
NpX
RY\]
LUV]
Yim.
EQl
VUp
TXm
RPok
RY\]
EQ\L[V
137
LlT
Tu\Yt\
AYoLs
RXV
Nlhd
Li
Ae \kR Xp YVLd
UhU
SU
EQTXj
Ru]m,
Yp
LhlTjRlTPUp
Yis[.
CpX.
B]p
SmUp
Gm
SmPV
NnP
Jum
RkWUL
AqY[
TZdLYZdLeL[j
V.
Sm
NVpTP
GR]
LVm
Ri
TRL
SmPV
CVtL
Gu
UVL
SPk
LiPp
SmU
Ut\YoLd
TZdLeLs
SmU
AUlTj
Yjs[].
CVkWLp
NlYRp
SPTu\.
NV]
A[Y,
EQYl
YV
TodLUp
RV.
Ytp
Sd
NV]
RLYpL[
AlT.
CpXUp
CVkWmTX
YrdL
SPju\m.
138
Ydu\]o.
GVLhm,
YXjRp
V]VLhm
eLm
JqYuu
Uhu\.
TZdLeLm
NVLj
Cdu\o.
TLYjRp xQo URoLu QeL[f NjY, W_
Utm
RUN
URoLm
Gu
GqYLp
YLl
SPk
du\]o.
LsYoLs,
uRU]
GkR
EQL[
Ao_]d
AYo,
LPp
CkR
Yu).
TdZlj
xQu
RV
Ao_]Pm
Yj,
im
YVLl
NiPTP
RVWL
BdYo.
GkRd
Qjdm
QeLm EPVY]L
AU
CpXRY]L
ApX
GpX
TtV
NnTY]L
Ao_]u
U\
Yim
Gu
xQo
\TLm,
GiQl
ZLm
GkR
TlTm
139
- 595
TojR
HW[U]
GiQl
ZLs
Utm
LQm
rXV
Sm
Es[.
Gu\pXm
AYt\l
TQm
Tjl
TiYRtl
TVuTjm
Tj
GV
YLs
NpXlThs[
\TLs
GpXm
JYdm
RPok
Cdm.
YmT
ApX
JW
URd
\Tm,
YtLs
RpLs
RPok
Sm
ETVlTYo
ETVdL
TQjRd
Sm
RljPXm
Au\Pm
Gu\
P
LV[UXV
Ynlm
AkRl
PV.
TZdLjR
EQdLhlThPp
EPp
H]p
T[j
TRl
YiV
GPVd
T[
CkhPp
TRl
Ts
hPXm.
B]p
\lT
RPUXV
Ld
L]m.
CkPXm.
B]p
EQdLhlT
NVjp,
SmUp
YV
ALlTjm
Nd
YnkR.
Sm
AuPV
YtjYo.
RLl
TolTYo
GpXm
Hu
ClT
140
NdVL
ZLdm,
UPm
U]jRm,
P.
A]jRU]
U]YUU
GiQl
EiUV]
Uk
GlT
U]YUVd
Li
YW
CVm?
Gu\
RR
TX
TLl
\L[d
AkRj
Rl
\Ls
GpXm
ReLs
NdV
141
Tjd LhP[Ls
ATh
BTjR]
Xp
Cdm
JYW
PlTZdLYZdLeL[p
SUd
SU
HtTjd
Lsm
CY
RRVVu
Uk
ApX.
Ld
GkR
NX
NWNV]
NnRTL,
URm
URURm
RLVf
NdLY
ApX.
CkRm
URURm
RXV
NmT[m
YeTYm
YeTYm
CYU
mTm
mTm
NXdl
SPju\]o.
SPju\o.
TQm
URm
CYPm
TRpX
.50,000
NjRp
Gum,
NdLY
Sm
Th_hp
RXV
KW[
Yjh,
CkR
Tt\d\V
TQjR
URm
Xm.
GoLXjd
CqY[Ru
YU]m
URmRm
Gu
Gu
Jd
Sm
\YLf
NmTlTR
TXSWeLp
142
BL A[h Rm LpX
TL ALXd LP
- 478
JY[
YU]ju
A[
\YL
CkRm,
NXLs
Uhm
ALUL
CpXhPp GkRR BTjm CpX.
Um
NVjR
Sm
LYdL
Yim.
TYL
XY
YLUL
EVok
YmT
Yep
JW
YLp
GpXYt\m
PdYm
BTjRL m.
TjR,
NmTdm
C[OoLm
Kn
Tt\
YojRLm
TTd.
Nn
B]p
Yu\]o.
XVokR
Lf
\kR
TTd.
TXo
Gem
CpX.
TmTX]o
TQm
RVjp
RhPju
Xm
YtT\
]lTR.
YojRLm
Utm
F&O Gu
NpXlTm
RhPeLp
143
Tojd Li mU
Ym
TXm
ReLs
NmTlTR
ALUL
CZdu\]o.
JuGn CZdm Rodm EiPmLp
SuGn YrYRo B
- 932
J Tn _jh u Tn
Rtm CVpPV RLs ElTVL YZ
YV PV.
J LXjp Gl Shp WLs LhYRt \V
AULs
ETVLlTjRlThP]o.
YXm,
YX]m
hPULl
AULs
RYlThP.
AYoLm
NkRm
JqY
T[RWVLd
LX
TV
Nu
Nnm
Tm
Gum,
TXWl
CkRTm
AULs
TX
Tef
NkRds
ReLs
AYtu
TeLs
RL
H]m
pXW
NkRp
HtTm
LUV]
Ht\
C\dLeLs
TQjR
144
HW[U]
Rh
Y]eLm
AYtp
TX
CdmThNjp
SpX
hPeL[
hhl
TQm
ThPp
GoLXm
WLNUL
Cdm
Gu
YlToLs.
Ap
RLs
NkR
ATVeLd
[mTWeLXpXm
Lj
ClToLs.
VRL,
AY
KWjp
HRY
TmTm
SUdl
LR
Ei.
ToYVt\Yo
RuPV
SiTo
ChhP,
YkP
Yp
m.
[d
B]m
YfNm
AYo
SiTo
PV.
YYu
SiTo
[dLd
Lp
Lj
PW, Hu L
145
E]dm
Li
RVR,
LpRu
[d
Yj
EeLs
IV!
CjhPu.
[d
UudLm,
AQkhP.
Gu
RVUp
NuhPo.
Li
AYt\j
RY\Ll
Li
4. TQjtj h PV
TQjp SpX TQm, LhP TQm Gu PV. GpXl
TQm Ju\. TXR NvWeLs TolTYoLs P TQjtl
TodLUhPoLs. EZj YkR TQm Jhm, Ut\ Qm
GuT EiUVYm, TnVYm Sm SmdLpRu Es[.
T PjR TQm Gu\p AR Sm EP]VL HRY NX
NnVUp
CdL
Rp
SU
Nld
LQdp
ThP
Ls[Xm.
Yim
Gu
RU]
Np
Ld
TQm,
Ll
\kR
TLlTL
Yh
RWdV
YdL
LL
146
5. CZlu Y ALm
UdLs A]YU RtL mYpX.AR]XV A
SmU ALm Tdu\. YtV Sm Tm GoTolTRp
_ULY A YkRm TV NkRNm RYpX. Um .100
_jR NkRNjR P .100 CZdmT CWi UPe Y
HtTm GuT dLlThs[. J ]N YojRLm NnTYo
ApX
TeL[
AdL
Ye,
AdL
tTYo
GkR
RLs,
AdL
Sm
SmPV
RL[l
6. AL NV O]m BTj
JW
NnVl
EiUVP.
TX\
B]p
SmU]m
TlTRp
AR
AqY
AL
Gjd
ALm
TlTYoLs \Vj
TolTYoLs,
GpX
NnjRsL[m
Rk YjkRm FPLeLp Ym TX
147
ARTX
AL
NVO]m
EPVYoLs
ReLs
RY
Ru
ERVL
RY\
CdLXm.
NnVpX
TgNVjp
\lTL
Gu
jj
Rljd
Tt
Sm
Gu]
]d\U
Gu\pXm
TQm
7. TYs[m
C TYL Sm NdmT NpY YZdLm. ClT
NX Nnm LQdLl TolTm. SmPV NXLs TX SU
Lidm, LY]jdm RVUXV SPdu\]. AY Lf
VRL CkRm RPok Tnd LiP ClTRp Sm
LYlT
CpX.
B]p
Wu
JSs
Sm
\V
RLd
Lh GpXUp Tnm
JqY\
TeL[
YemTm,
tmTm
148
Ym
NXLs
EP]
SmUl
Tm
TlTpX.
149
Gu ReLs RL[l j
NpY
L]m
Gu\m,
CkV]l
TjRYW
YjlT
hPeLp
YZdLU.
NnRp,
50%
YW
C[OoLd
Te
ELkR.
NokR
LgNm
Te
NokR
ClTRpXm
hPeL[d
UjY
\jd
YNVp
Ls[Xm
iPLXm
PThLs,
Pdu\].
AYt\
ReLm
YeYm
Tu\Ym
tTm
TeL[LY
XTm.
TLll
A]Ym
TefNkR
TtV
AdL
TN
lh
BlWhPo
G]dl
Tef
NkR
Tt
VN]
NnY
Gu\p
CpX.
Am RYRu.
80% SWeLp
UdLs GlTU
AYoLs
NVLY
150
Ls[m
UhPoLs.
G]Y
dVU]
RQeLp
CVX.
Cdu\]o,
AkR
Gm
SWeLp
Tl
SW.
SmU
AlTV
\VTo
SokRm
APdLlTh
CkR RoLs
TXW
Wuv
WoLs
Es[
T]nh
UuPpWh
(Benoit
Mandelbrott)
Xf
Nu\
SWjXV
Ut\YoLs
GpXm
Yp
Rm.
B]p
AlT
Uk
TRL
YX NnV.
jRLeL[m
LPYW
GRU
Pj,
Gj
TdLUXV
C\k
Ad
YjRm
TYm
Ei.
151
Tu\
SLu
AWNeLm
GpXm
UdL[f
NX
TdRoLm
AYW
TReL[l
PjR
td
WLm
AYoLs
GV
(The
152
Intelligent Investor)
CuP_uh
CuYvPo
Gu\
jRLjp
SmYm.
CUXY
YNLoLs
TQj]l
TtV
- 751