Part 1 - Introduction
Identify decision criteria
Once a decision maker has defined the problem, he or she needs to
identify the decision criteria that will be important in solving the
problem. In this step, the decision maker is determining what’s
relevant in making the decision.
This step brings the decision maker’s interests, values, and personal
preferences into the process.
Also keep in mind that any factors not identified in this step are
considered as irrelevant to the decision maker.
Generate alternatives
The decision maker generates possible alternatives that could
succeed in resolving the problem. No attempt is made in this step to
appraise these alternatives, only to list them.
Assumptions of Model
1. Problem clarity. (The decision maker is assumed to have
complete information regarding the decision situation.)
2. Known options (Identify all the relevant criteria and can list all
the viable alternatives. The decision maker is aware of all the
possible consequences of each alternative.)
3. Clear preference (The criteria and alternatives can be ranked
and weight to reflect their importance)
4. Constant preferences (The specific decision criteria are constant
and that weights assigned to them are stable over time)
5. No time or cost constraints
6. Maximum payoff
Bounded Rationality
when a staff considered which college to attend, they will not look
every viable alternative nor identify all the criteria that were
important in decision.
Instead of optimizing, staff probably “satisfied”.
Because the capacity of the human mind for formulating and solving
complex problems is far too small to meet the requirements for full
rationality, individuals operate within the confines of bounded
rationality. They construct simplified models that extract the
essential features from problems without capturing all of their
complexity. Individuals can then behave rationally within the limits
of the simple model.
These are the choices that are easy to find and that tend to be
highly visible. In most cases, they will represent familiar criteria and
previously tried-and-true solutions.
Solutions that depart least from the status quo and meet the
decision criteria are most likely to be selected. A unique and
creative alternative may present an optimizing solution to the
problem, but it’s unlikely to be chosen because an acceptable
solution will be identified well before the decision maker is required
to search very far beyond the status quo.
Intuition
”Sometimes you’re just got to go with your gut feeling,”
Identifying Problems
Problems that are visible tend to have a higher probability of being
selected than ones that are important.
1. Easily to catch a decision maker’s attention.
2. Decision maker want to appear competent and “on top of
problems”. This desire motivates DM to focus on problems that
are visible to others
Developing Alternatives
since decision makers rarely seek an optimal solution, but rather a
satisfying one, we should expect to find a minimal use of creativity
in the search for alternatives. And that expectation is generally on
target.
Efforts will be made to try to keep the search process simple. It will
tend to be confined to the neighborhood of the current alternative.
More complex search behavior, which includes the development of
creative alternatives, will be resorted to only when a simple search
fails to uncover a satisfactory alternative.
Making Choices
In order to avoid information overload, decision makers rely on
heuristics, or judgmental shortcuts, in decision making.
1. Availability Heuristic
The tendency for people to base their judgments on information
that is readily available to them. Events that evoke emotions,
that are particularly vivid, or that have occurred recently tend to
be most available in our memory.
[When doing annual performance appraisals, tend to give more
weight to recent behaviors of an employee than to those of 6
months ago]
2. Representative Heuristic
decision makers tend to assess the likelihood of an occurrence by
trying to match it with a pre-existing category.
[Frequently predict the performance of a new product by relating
it to a previous product’s success]
3. Escalation of Commitment
tendency to escalate commitment when a decision stream
represents a series of decisions. Escalation of commitment is an
increased commitment to a previous decision in spite of negative
information.
They “throw good money after bad” to demonstrate that their
initial decision wasn’t wrong and to avoid having to admit they
made a mistake. People try to appear consistent in what they say
and do. Increasing commitment to previous actions conveys
consistency.
[“I have a lot invested in the relationships.”
“I have to go back and complete some deficiencies if I changed
to work on a degree in other fields.”]
Individual Difference
1. Decision-Making Styles
The foundation of the model is the recognition that people differ
along two dimensions. The first is their way of thinking (intuitive
and creative). The other dimension addresses a person’s tolerance
for ambiguity. Some people have a high need to structure
information in ways that minimize ambiguity; Others are able to
process many thoughts at the same time.
Tolerance for Ambiguity
Analytical Conceptual
Directive Behavioral
Performance Evaluation
Decision maker are strongly influenced in their decision making by
the criteria by which they are evaluated.
[If a college dean believes that an instructor should never fail more
than 10 percent of her students – to fail more reflects on the
instructor’s ability to teach – we should expect that new instructor,
who want to receive favorable evaluations, will decide not to fail too
many students.]
Reward System
What choices are preferable in terms of personal payoff?
If the organization rewards risk aversion, managers are likely to
make conservative decisions.
[General Motors consistently gave out promotions and bonuses to
manager who kept a low profile, avoided controversy, and were
good team players. The result was that GM managers became very
adept at dodging tough issues and passing controversial decisions
on to committees]
Historical Precedents
Rational decision making takes an unrealistic and insulated
perspective. It views decision as independent and discrete events.
But that isn’t they way it I in the real world! Decisions aren’t made
in a vacuum. They have a context. In fact, individual decisions are
more accurately characterized as points in a stream of decisions.
Decisions made in the past are ghost that continually haunt current
choices.
It’s common knowledge that the largest determining factor of the
size of any given year’s budget is last year’s budget.
Choices made today, therefore, are largely a result of choices made
over the years.
Cultural Differences
The rational model does not acknowledge cultural differences. But,
we need to recognize that the cultural background of the decision
maker can have significant influence on his or her selection of
problems, depth of analysis, the importance placed on logic and
rationality, or whether organizational decisions should be made
autocratically by an individual manger or collectively in groups. (Like
Japan Manager is more group-oriented. Before making an important
decision, they collect a large amount of information, which is then
used in consensus-forming group decisions.)
Some cultures emphasize solving problems; others focus on
accepting situations as they are. Problem-solving decision maker
believe that they can and should change situations to their benefit.
Part 5 – Ethics in Decision Making
Utilitarian criterion
Decisions are made solely on the basis of their outcomes or
consequences.
The goal of it is to provide the greatest good for the greatest
number. This view tends to dominate business decision making.
(Efficiency, productivity, and high profits)
[
+ A focus on utilitarianism promotes efficiency and productivity.
Right criterion
This call on individuals to make decisions consistent with
fundamental liberties and privileges as set forth in documents such
as the Bill of Right.
An emphasis on rights in decision making means respecting and
protecting the basic rights of individuals.(The right to privacy, to
free speech, and to due process)
[
+ Protects individuals from injury and is consistent with freedom
and privacy
- Create an overly legalistic workplace that hinders productivity and
efficiency.
]
Justice criterion
This requires individual to impose and enforce rules fairly and
impartially so there is an equitable distribution of benefits and costs.
[
+ The interests of the underrepresented and less powerful
- Encourage a sense of entitlement that reduces risk taking,
innovation, and productivity.
]