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PROBABILITASPROBABILITAS (( PROBABILITY)PROBABILITY) PROBABILITYPROBABILITY OWESOWES ITSITS EXISTENCEEXISTENCE TOTO
PROBABILITASPROBABILITAS (( PROBABILITY)PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITYPROBABILITY OWESOWES ITSITS EXISTENCEEXISTENCE TOTO GAMBLINGGAMBLING
GEROLAMO CARDANO (1501 – 1576)
Matematisi ITALI, patut memperoleh pujian dan penghargaan atas
kepandaiannya. Ia merupakan pelopor “ Probability Theory” dan penjudi
yang sudah mendarah daging. Gerolamo Cardano menulis buku kecil
“ LIBER DE LUDO ALEA “ ( The Book On Dice Game )
Ia mengembangkan teori kemungkinan atau probabilitas serta
mengenalkan konsep analisa kombinatorik ke dalam teori probabilitas.
CARDANO dikenal sebagai :
“The Father Of Theory of Probability”. Selanjutnya, BLAISE PASCAL
(1623-1662) dan PIERRE DE FERMAT (1601 – 1665) menyempurnakan
hasil karya CARDANO, yang akhirnya dihimpun oleh JAKOB
BERNAOULLI (1654 - 1705) menjadi text book : INTRODUCTORY
PROBABILITY
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text book : INTRODUCTORY PROBABILITY Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT 11
text book : INTRODUCTORY PROBABILITY Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT 11
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Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 RANDOM RANDOM RANDOM ? ? ? Setiap orang selalu mengalami dan mengahadapi

RANDOMRANDOMRANDOM ???

Setiap orang selalu mengalami dan mengahadapi ketidakpastian bahkan sesuatu yang pasti adalah ketidakpastian

HASIL (dari suatu percobaan) yang tidak dapat diprediksi terlebih dahulu

RANDOMRANDOM (happen(happen byby chance)chance) UTTERLYUTTERLY UNKNOWUNKNOW

STOCHASTICSTOCHASTIC

UTTERLY UTTERLY UNKNOW UNKNOW STOCHASTIC STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY PROBABILITY STOCHASTIKOS STOCHASTIKOS A N T O

PROBABILITYPROBABILITY

UNKNOW UNKNOW STOCHASTIC STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY PROBABILITY STOCHASTIKOS STOCHASTIKOS A N T O N Y M A

STOCHASTIKOSSTOCHASTIKOS

ANTONYMANTONYM ??

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LANDASANLANDASAN DASARDASAR PROBABILITASPROBABILITAS RANDOMRANDOM EXPERIMENTEXPERIMENT ?? Suatu experiment disebut
LANDASANLANDASAN DASARDASAR PROBABILITASPROBABILITAS
RANDOMRANDOM EXPERIMENTEXPERIMENT ??
Suatu experiment disebut random experiment, jika keluarannya (out comes) tidak
dapat diprediksi terlebih dahulu.
SAMPLESAMPLE SPACESPACE ??
Himpunan dari semua outcomes yang mungkin dari
suatu random experiment disebut ruang contoh
Ω=ϖϖ ϖ
{
,
,
}
1
2
n
EVENT
(KEJADIAN) ??
Sample points
EVENTEVENT
(outcomes)
Sample space, out come space,
description space
Simple Events
Certain Events (sure event)
Compound Events
Impossible Events (null event)
space, description space Simple Events Certain Events (sure event) Compound Events Impossible Events (null event) 33
33
33
LANDASANLANDASAN DASARDASAR PROBABILITASPROBABILITAS INFINITE Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 [MA[MA
LANDASANLANDASAN DASARDASAR PROBABILITASPROBABILITAS
INFINITE
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PROBABILITASPROBABILITAS INFINITE Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT 44
PROBABILITASPROBABILITAS INFINITE Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT 44
44
44
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PS:

+

R ,

2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 PS : → + R , PROBABILITY PROBABILITY SPACE SPACE PASANGAN TIGA

PROBABILITYPROBABILITY SPACESPACE

PASANGAN TIGA SERANGKAI (Ω, S, P )

DISEBUT PROBABILITY SPACE, DIMANA :

FUNGSI PELUANG

DAN S ADALAH EVENT SPACE JIKA Ω COUNTABLE, MAKA HIMPUNAN DARI SEMUA SUBSET Ω DISEBUT POWER SET DARI Ω ATAU CLASS, DIBERI LAMBANG S JADI S = (Ω)

# Ω

BANYAKNYA UNSUR, (Ω) ADA 2

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PENDEKATANPENDEKATAN PROBABILITASPROBABILITAS AXIOMATIC (ANDREI NIKOLAYEVIC KOLMOGOROV) 1903 - 1987 THE PROBABILITY
PENDEKATANPENDEKATAN PROBABILITASPROBABILITAS
AXIOMATIC
(ANDREI NIKOLAYEVIC KOLMOGOROV)
1903 - 1987
THE PROBABILITY
HAS
THREE APPROACHES
SUBJECTIVE
FRANK PLUMPTON RAMSEY,
(1903 – 1930)
OBJECTIVE
RICHARD MARTIN EDLER VON MISES
(1883- 1953)
RELATIVE FREQUENCY
EMPIRICAL
CLASSICAL
(EQUALLY LIKELY)
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CLASSICAL (EQUALLY LIKELY) Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT 66
66
66
HUBUNGANHUBUNGAN ANTARAANTARA PROBABILITASPROBABILITAS DANDAN STATISTIKASTATISTIKA DEDUCTIVE REASONING PROBABILITY
HUBUNGANHUBUNGAN ANTARAANTARA
PROBABILITASPROBABILITAS DANDAN STATISTIKASTATISTIKA
DEDUCTIVE REASONING
PROBABILITY
POPULATION
SAMPLE
STATISTICS
INDUCTIVE REASONING
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STATISTICS INDUCTIVE REASONING Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT 77
STATISTICS INDUCTIVE REASONING Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT 77
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PROBABILITAS HARDHARD SUBJECTSUBJECT DIFFICULTDIFFICULT SUBJECTSUBJECT RANDOMNESS PROBABILITY UNCERTAINTY TOPIC
PROBABILITAS
HARDHARD SUBJECTSUBJECT
DIFFICULTDIFFICULT SUBJECTSUBJECT
RANDOMNESS
PROBABILITY
UNCERTAINTY
TOPIC WHICH AT FIRST SIGHT
MAY SEEM
DAUNTING AND CONFUSING
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MAY SEEM DAUNTING AND CONFUSING Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT 88
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EVENT

RE

SS

EVENT

EVENT RE SS EVENT EVENTS, AND ONLY EVENTS HAVE PROBABILITY CONCEPT OF EVENT IS FUNDAMENTAL TO

EVENTS, AND ONLY EVENTS HAVE PROBABILITY

CONCEPT OF EVENT IS FUNDAMENTAL TO THE THEORY OF PROBABILITY

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STATISTIKASTATISTIKA ANALYSIS (MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS) STATISTICS DESIGN (APPLIED STATISTICS) EXPLORATORY DATA
STATISTIKASTATISTIKA
ANALYSIS
(MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS)
STATISTICS
DESIGN
(APPLIED STATISTICS)
EXPLORATORY
DATA ANALYSIS
(DESCRIPTIVE
STATISTICS)
CONFIRMATORY
DATA ANALYSIS
(INDUCTIVESTATISTICS)
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ANALYSIS (INDUCTIVESTATISTICS) Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT 1010
ANALYSIS (INDUCTIVESTATISTICS) Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT 1010
1010
1010
TRIALTRIAL EACHEACH REPETITIONREPETITION OFOF ANAN EXPERIMENTEXPERIMENT THETHE SINGLESINGLE PERFORMANCEPERFORMANCE OFOF
TRIALTRIAL
EACHEACH REPETITIONREPETITION OFOF ANAN EXPERIMENTEXPERIMENT
THETHE SINGLESINGLE PERFORMANCEPERFORMANCE
OFOF ANAN EXPERIMENTEXPERIMENT
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OFOF ANAN EXPERIMENTEXPERIMENT Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT 1111
OFOF ANAN EXPERIMENTEXPERIMENT Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT 1111
1111
1111
RANDOMRANDOM EXPERIMENTEXPERIMENT ANAN EXPERIMENTEXPERIMENT THATTHAT CANCAN RESULTRESULT ININ DIFFERENTDIFFERENT
RANDOMRANDOM EXPERIMENTEXPERIMENT
ANAN EXPERIMENTEXPERIMENT THATTHAT CANCAN RESULTRESULT ININ DIFFERENTDIFFERENT
OUTCOMES,OUTCOMES, EVENEVEN THOUGHTHOUGH ITIT ISIS REPEATEDREPEATED ININ
THETHE SAMESAME MANNERMANNER EVERYEVERY TIMETIME
RERE
ANAN EXPERIMENTEXPERIMENT WITHWITH ANAN OUTCOMEOUTCOME DEPENDINGDEPENDING
ONON CHANCECHANCE
HAVEHAVE OUTCOMESOUTCOMES THATTHAT CACANNOTNNOT BEBE DETERMINEDDETERMINED
WITHWITH CERTAINTYCERTAINTY BEFOREBEFORE THETHE EXPERIMENTSEXPERIMENTS AREARE
PERFORMEDPERFORMED
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20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT PENGERTIAN PENGERTIAN STATISTIKA STATISTIKA STATISTICIAN

PENGERTIANPENGERTIAN STATISTIKASTATISTIKA

STATISTICIANSTATISTICIAN

WHATWHAT ISIS

STATISTICSTATISTIC

STATISTICSSTATISTICS

STATISTIKSTATISTIK

STATISTASTATISTA

STATESMANSTATESMAN

STATESTATE -- ISTICSISTICS

STATISTICSSTATISTICS

STATE STATE - - ISTICS ISTICS STATISTICS STATISTICS POLITICAL POLITICAL ARITHMETIC ARITHMETIC SCIENCE SCIENCE

POLITICALPOLITICAL ARITHMETICARITHMETIC

- - ISTICS ISTICS STATISTICS STATISTICS POLITICAL POLITICAL ARITHMETIC ARITHMETIC SCIENCE SCIENCE OF OF STATES STATES
- - ISTICS ISTICS STATISTICS STATISTICS POLITICAL POLITICAL ARITHMETIC ARITHMETIC SCIENCE SCIENCE OF OF STATES STATES

SCIENCESCIENCE OFOF STATESSTATES

- - ISTICS ISTICS STATISTICS STATISTICS POLITICAL POLITICAL ARITHMETIC ARITHMETIC SCIENCE SCIENCE OF OF STATES STATES
1313
1313
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Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 PENGERTIAN PENGERTIAN STATISTIKA STATISTIKA STATISTICS STATISTICS : :

PENGERTIANPENGERTIAN STATISTIKASTATISTIKA

STATISTICSSTATISTICS ::

ThereThere areare threethree kindskinds ofof lieslies ::

(Benjamin(Benjamin Disraeli)Disraeli)

WITCHCRAFTWITCHCRAFT OROR SS CC II EE NN CC EE

LL II EE SS DAMNEDDAMNED LIESLIES STATISTICSSTATISTICS

??

STATISTICSSTATISTICS ISIS THETHE SCIENCESCIENCE OFOF DATADATA STATISTICSSTATISTICS ISIS THETHE SCIENCESCIENCE OFOF GAININGGAINING INFORMATIONINFORMATION FORFOR DATADATA

THETHE GLOBALGLOBAL OFOF STATISTICSSTATISTICS ISIS TOTO GAINGAIN UNDERSTANDINGUNDERSTANDING FROMFROM DATA.DATA. DATDATAA CANCAN BEBE THOUGHTTHOUGHT OFOF ASAS THETHE UNUMERICALUNUMERICAL INFORMINFORMATIONATION NEEDEDNEEDED TOTO HELPHELP USUS MAKEMAKE AA MOREMORE INFORMEDINFORMED DECISIONDECISION ININAA PARTICULARPARTICULAR SITUATIONSITUATION

DATADATA AREARE NUMBERSNUMBERS WHITHWHITH AA CONTEXTCONTEXT

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20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT STATISTICS STATISTICS KATA KATA “ “ STATISTIK

STATISTICSSTATISTICS

KATAKATA STATISTIKSTATISTIKPERTAMAPERTAMA KALIKALI DIPAKAIDIPAKAI :: GOTTFRIEDGOTTFRIED ACHENWALLACHENWALL

(1719(1719--1772)1772)

UNIVERSITYUNIVERSITY OFOF GOTTINGENGOTTINGEN

CarriesCarries distinctdistinct meaningmeaning distinctdistinct individualsindividuals

STATISTICSSTATISTICS

DifferentDifferent thingsthings toto differentdifferent peoplepeople

THETHE SCIENCESCIENCE OFOF DATADATA

COLLECTINGCOLLECTING

CLASSIFYINGCLASSIFYING

ANALYZINGANALYZING

SUMMARIZINGSUMMARIZING

ORGANIZINGORGANIZING

ANAN INTERPRETINGINTERPRETING NUMERICALNUMERICAL INFORMATIONINFORMATION

1515
1515
SKALASKALA PENGUKURANPENGUKURAN INTERVALINTERVAL SCALESCALE RATIORATIO SCALESCALE SCALESSCALES OFOF
SKALASKALA PENGUKURANPENGUKURAN
INTERVALINTERVAL SCALESCALE
RATIORATIO SCALESCALE
SCALESSCALES OFOF
MEASUREMENTMEASUREMENT
ORDINALORDINAL SCALESCALE
NOMINALNOMINAL SCALESCALE
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NOMINALNOMINAL SCALESCALE Sabtu,Sabtu, 2525 NopemberNopember 20062006 [MA[MA 2513]2513] PROBSTATPROBSTAT 1616
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1616
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KARAKTERISTIKKARAKTERISTIK POPULATIONPOPULATION ParameterParameter ValueValue thatthat describedescribe thethe
KARAKTERISTIKKARAKTERISTIK
POPULATIONPOPULATION
ParameterParameter
ValueValue thatthat describedescribe thethe
characteristicscharacteristics ofof aa populationpopulation
CHARACTERISTICCHARACTERISTIC
SAMPLINGSAMPLING ERRORERROR
StatisticStatistic
MeasureMeasure describingdescribing thethe
characteristicscharacteristics ofof aa samplesample
StatisticStatistic MeasureMeasure describingdescribing thethe characteristicscharacteristics ofof aa samplesample 1717
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