Anda di halaman 1dari 8

Steel Industry Update/274

May 2012

Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007

Tel: 212-962-2980

Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, March & Year-to-Date, 2012
Month of March
2012
2011
% Chg
Raw Steel Production ........................8,775
8,121
8.1%
(000 net tons)

2012
25,586

Year-to-Date
2011
23,422

% Chg
9.2%

Capacity Utilization .......................... 79.6

75.0

--

79.3

74.5

--

Mill Shipments ...................................8,513

8,006

6.3%

25,418

22,502

13.0%

Exports ..............................................1,204

1,132

6.4%

3,677

3,142

17.0%

Total Imports......................................3,067

2,465

24.4%

8,603

6,427

33.9%

Finished Steel Imports .....................2,217

1,869

18.6%

6,504

5,007

29.9%

Apparent Steel Supply* ......................9,526

8,743

9.0%

28,245

24,367

15.9%

Imports as % of Supply*................... 23.3

21.4

--

23.0

20.5

--

Average Spot Price** ($/ton) ............... $803

$946

-15.1%

$824

$903

-8.7%

Scrap Price# ($/ton) ............................ $439

$442

-0.7%

$447

$443

0.8%

Sources: AISI, SteelBenchmarker

*Excl semi-finished imports

**Avg price of 3 carbon products

#shredded scrap

Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Steel Products, May & Year-to-Date, 2012
($ per net ton)

Hot Rolled Band....


Cold Rolled Coil........
Coiled Plate..................

Month of May
2012
2011
% Chg
670
831
-19.4%
771
923
-16.5%
899
1064
-15.5%

Average Spot Price....

780

939

OCTG*

2,038

#1 Heavy Melt...
Shredded Scrap...
#1 Busheling.

390
428
442

2012
703
802
930

Year-to-Date
2011
839
931
1,000

% Chg
-16.3%
-13.8%
-7.0%

-17.0%

812

923

-12.1%

1,938

5.2%

2,031

1,803

12.6%

391
427
461

-0.3%
0.2%
-4.1%

398
440
463

403
440
469

-1.3%
0.0%
-1.3%

Sources: World Steel Dynamics, Spears Research, 5/12; *OCTG data is April, 2012

Email: lockerassociates@yahoo.com | Website: www.lockerassociates.com

Steel Industry Update/274

Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, April & Year-to-Date, 2012


Month of April
Year-to-Date
(000 metric tons)
2012
2011
%
Chg
2012
2011
Region
European Union.
14,884
15,422
-3.5%
58,831
58,106
Other Europe.
3,111
2,592
20.0%
12,717
9,342

% Chg
1.2%
36.1%

C.I.S.

9,000

9,395

-4.2%

36,831

35,253

4.5%

North America

10,425

9,563

9.0%

41,874

36,862

13.6%

South America...

4,129

3,462

19.3%

16,058

13,855

15.9%

Africa/Middle East.....

2,819

2,786

1.2%

11,505

10,766

6.9%

Asia..

83,459

76,766

8.7%

324,012

295,018

9.8%

Oceania......

550

647

-15.0%

2,131

2,599

-18.0%

Total

128,376

120,633

6.4%

503,958

461,801

9.1%

China.......
Japan...

60,575
9,072

55,141
8,987

9.9%
1.0%

233,993
35,638

212,070
35,497

10.3%
0.4%

United States..

7,705

6,955

10.8%

30,916

26,544

16.5%

South Korea.......

6,011

5,079

18.3%

23,321

18,684

24.8%

India(e).

6,000

5,831

2.9%

24,000

22,580

6.3%

Russia(e).

5,900

5,650

4.4%

24,025

21,510

11.7%

Germany...

3,602

3,882

-7.2%

14,448

14,815

-2.5%

Brazil...

3,029

2,707

11.9%

11,754

10,674

10.1%

Turkey

2,885

2,412

19.6%

11,910

8,470

40.6%

Country

Ukraine(e)...

2,520

3,045

-17.3%

10,502

11,262

-6.7%

All Others....

23,597

23,989

-1.6%

83,451

79,695

4.7%

Source: World Steel Association, 5/12; e=estimate

Graph 1: World Crude Steel Production, April 2012

Source: World Steel Association, 5/12; in million metric tons

-2-

Steel Industry Update/274

Graph 2: World Steel Capacity Utilization, April 2012

Source: World Steel Association, 5/12

Table 4: Global Apparent Steel Use, 2011-2013f

Region

2011

2012f

2013f

Emerging & Developing Economies

980.0

1024.9

1077.1

Asia & Oceania

895.5

928.6

966.0

BRIC

757.2

789.9

826.1

World excl. China

749.4

773.5

810.9

China

623.9

648.8

674.8

Developed Economies

393.3

397.5

408.5

European Union (27)

152.8

150.9

155.8

NAFTA

121.2

127.5

134.0

MENA

59.8

63.2

68.5

CIS

54.0

56.2

59.1

Middle East

48.1

49.8

53.0

Central & South America

46.0

49.1

52.5

Other Europe

33.0

35.0

37.2

Africa

World

22.7

25.1

28.2

1,373.3

1,422.3

1,485.7

Source: World Steel Association, 4/28/12; in million tonnes

Steel Industry Update (ISSN 1063-4339) published 12 times/year by Locker Associates, Inc. Copyright 2012 by Locker Associates, Inc. All
rights reserved. Reproduction in any form forbidden w/o permission. Locker Associates, Inc., 225 Broadway Suite 2625 New York NY 10007.

-3-

Steel Industry Update/274

Table 5: U.S. Carbon Steel Exports by Country, 2012 YTD

Country
Canada
Mexico
EU
Russia
Turkey
Brazil
Venezuela
Ecuador
Argentina
Colombia
Trinidad and Tobago
Peru
Chile
Dominican Republic
Panama
Other W. Hemisphere
Africa
Australia
China
Korea
India
UAE
Pakistan
Singapore
Vietnam
Japan
Taiwan
Other Asia
Others

2012 YTD
1,910,343
1,089,898
128,697
1,690
5,197
61,730
33,545
6,394
1,489
38,961
3,321
22,694
5,583
24,302
19,028
71,375
31,454
10,527
28,454
12,073
23,654
9,317
9,144
6,955
2,431
6,716
31,517
74,737
5,871

2011 YTD
1,702,868
712,927
130,069
1,104
9,728
35,300
12,984
1,813
4,740
16,579
4,974
31,453
6,562
28,402
38,503
50,543
37,061
9,123
51,570
17,968
35,287
6,802
7,772
11,084
5,665
4,934
95,767
64,085
6,745

% Chg
12.2%
52.9%
-1.1%
53.1%
-46.6%
74.9%
158.4%
252.7%
-68.6%
135.0%
-33.2%
-27.8%
-14.9%
-14.4%
-50.6%
41.2%
-15.1%
15.4%
-44.8%
-32.8%
-33.0%
37.0%
17.7%
-37.3%
-57.1%
36.1%
-67.1%
16.6%
-13.0%

Total

3,677,097

3,142,412

17.0%

Source: World Steel Association, 5/13/122; in net tons

Table 6: U.S. Stainless Steel Imports & Consumption, February 2012


Imports
Product
Sheet & strip
Plate
Bar
Wire
Rod
Alloy tool
Electrical
Total Stainless

Feb 12
25,112
16,066
10,403
3,452
2,654
10,427
8,670
57,688

Feb 11
31,775
11,312
11,034
3,629
2,186
7,166
9,187
59,936

U.S. Consumption
% Chg
-21.0%
42.0%
-5.7%
-4.9%
21.4%
45.5%
-5.6%
-3.8%

Source: SSINA, 5/18/12; in short tons; nc = not calculable

-4-

Feb 12
133,652
36,132
20,852
4,845
6,192
nc
18,153
201,672

Feb 11
132,561
23,680
21,388
4,461
6,468
nc
12,238
188,557

% Chg
0.8%
52.6%
-2.5%
8.6%
-4.3%
nc
48.3%
7.0%

Steel Industry Update/274

Table 7: U.S. Exports of Ferrous Scrap by Destination, March 2012


Country
Canada
China
Egypt
Hong Kong
India
Japan
Malaysia
Mexico
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
Others
Total

Mar 12
108,734
303,483
38,515
4,475
140,209
4,783
70,768
31,638
352,106
346,249
46,996
561,934
139,629
2,149,519

Feb 12
128,438
229,001
83,998
9,298
69,622
5,773
2,545
68,073
308,671
223,783
53,945
600,524
75,890
1,859,561

Jan 12
106,230
133,761
91,252
5,787
71,108
3,701
33,862
29,604
244,647
260,055
12,954
369,716
53,927
1,416,604

2012 YTD
343,402
666,245
213,765
19,560
280,939
14,257
107,175
129,315
905,424
830,087
113,895
1,532,174
269,446
5,425,684

2011 YTD
399,991
954,288
129,686
32,036
107,162
55,584
221,986
191,289
699,259
704,516
245,506
923,446
355,199
5,019,948

% Chg
-14.4%
-30.2%
64.8%
-38.9%
162.2%
-74.4%
-51.7%
-32.4%
29.5%
17.8%
-53.6%
65.9%
-24.1%
8.1%

2011 YTD
259
30
124
105
3
1,500
172
231
45
1,773
141
20
616
5,020

% Chg
-39.3%
-33.7%
2.5%
11.6%
-63.7%
29.1%
67.2%
5.1%
36.0%
-7.1%
-12.3%
-87.9%
8.2%
8.1%

Source: American Metal Market, 5/16/12; in tonnes

Table 8: U.S. Exports of Ferrous Scrap by Grade, March 2012


Product
Alloys
Borings
Cast iron
No. 1 bundles
No. 2 bundles
No. 1 heavy
No. 2 heavy
Plate/structural
Shavings
Shredded
Stainless
Tinned
Unspecified
Total

Mar 12
54
10
48
30
-787
132
99
21
637
48
14
269
2,150

Feb 12
50
6
43
33
-684
88
84
25
587
39
16
206
1,860

Jan 12
53
4
36
55
-467
67
60
15
422
37
9
191
1,417

Source: American Metal Market, 5/18/12; in 000 tonnes

-5-

2012 YTD
157
20
127
117
1
1,937
287
243
61
1,647
124
38
667
5,426

Steel Industry Update/274

Table 9: Turkish Scrap Imports, 1st Quarter 2012


Country
US
Netherlands
UK
Russia
Romania
Belgium
Bulgaria
Estonia
Germany
France

Q1'12
1,240,577
648,814
600,786
437,755
381,885
280,954
169,280
164,761
151,812
141,900

Q1'11
991,494
332,373
464,157
479,264
634,038
322,110
177,994
90,109
282,144
57,823

Source: SteelOrbis.com 5/3/12; in tonnes

Table 10: Iron Ore & Coal Acquisitions by Steelmakers, 2011


Type
Cross border
Domestic
Cross border
Cross border

Date Effective/
Unconditional

Target name
Baffinland Iron
Mines

3/25/11

Target
Country

Target
Commodity

Canada

Iron ore

2/1/11

SK Energy Coal

S. Korea

Coal

5/11/11

SPG Mineracao

Brazil

Iron ore

3/23/11

Adriana Resources

Brazil

Iron ore

Cross border

3/21/11

Sarwa Sembada
Karya Bumi PT

Indonesia

Coal

Cross border

3/17/11

Novoko BV

Netherlands

Coal

Acquirer
Name
ArcelorMittal
Nunavut Iron

Acquirer
Country

% of Shares
Acquired

Value
(US$M)

Luxembourg

95%

514

SK Networks

South Korea

100%

205

Severstal

Russia

25%

49

China

27%

30

India

100%

24

South Korea

90%

11

Wisco Intl
Resources
Monnet Ispat
& Energy Co.
SK Networks

Source: Ernst & Young Global Steel 2011 Report

Table 11: Variation in Raw Material Prices vs Steel Prices, 2009-2011


Avg Prices
2009
2010
2011
CAGR variation (2009-2011)

HR coil
$469

Iron ore
$85

Coking Coal
$170.7

$614

$153

$242.7

$714

$183

$288.0

23.4%

46.7%

30.2%

--

1.6

0.5

23.4%

74.7%

15.1%

Ratios/tonne
Impact factor*

Source: Ernst & Young Global Steel 2011 Report; *Impact factor: Impact of the price
increase based on usage/unit of steel production.

-6-

Steel Industry Update/274

Steel Mill Products: US Imports, March & Year-to-Date, 2012


Imports: Country of Origin
(000 net tons)

Canada..
Mexico
Other W. Hemisphere..
European Union
Other Europe*..
Asia.
Oceania.
Africa..
Total
Imports: Customs District
Atlantic Coast
Gulf Coast/Mexican Border
Pacific Coast.
Gr Lakes/Canadian Border
Off Shore

Month of March
2012
2011
% Chg
553
563
-1.8%
288
352
-18.2%
479
170
181.8%
487
435
12.0%
383
237
61.6%
836
645
29.6%
30
43
-30.2%
10
20
-50.0%
3,067
2,465
24.4%

2012
1,492
641
1,223
1,288
1,291
2,561
88
20
8,603

414
1,422
626
593
12

1,164
4,292
1,478
1,608
61

369
948
524
602
22

Source: AISI; *includes Russia

Update #274
-7-

12.2%
50.0%
19.5%
-1.5%
-45.5%

Year-to-Date
2011
% Chg
1,436
3.9%
877
-26.9%
630
94.1%
1,035
24.4%
535
141.3%
1,674
53.0%
193
-54.4%
47
-57.4%
6,427
33.9%
849
2,752
1,225
1,545
55

37.1%
56.0%
20.7%
4.1%
10.9%

Locker Associates, Inc.


LOCKER ASSOCIATES is a business-consulting firm that specializes in enhancing the
competitiveness of businesses and industries on behalf of unions, corporate and government
clients. By combining expert business and financial analysis with a sensitivity to labor issues,
the firm is uniquely qualified to help clients manage change by:

leading joint labor/management business improvement initiatives;


facilitating ownership transitions to secure the long-term viability of a business;
conducting strategic industry studies to identify future challenges and opportunities;
representing unions in strategic planning, workplace reorganization and bankruptcy
formulating business plans for turnaround situations; and
performing due diligence for equity and debt investors.

Over the last 28 years, the firm has directed over 225 projects spanning manufacturing,
transportation, distribution and mining industries. Typical projects involve in-depth analysis of a
firms market, financial and operating performance on behalf of a cooperative labormanagement effort. Locker Associates also produces a widely read monthly newsletter, Steel
Industry Update that circulates throughout the U.S. and Canadian steel industry.

MAJOR CLIENTS
United Steelworkers
Bank of Boston
Congress Financial
Santander Investment Securities
AEIF-IAM/AK Steel Middletown
Prudential Securities
US Steel Joint Labor-Mgmt Comm
LTV Steel Joint Labor-Mgmt Committee
Intl Union of Electrical Workers
Bethlehem Joint Labor-Mgmt Comm
Inland Steel Joint Labor-Mgmt Comm
Northwestern Steel and Wire
Boilermakers
American Federation of Musicians
USS/KOBE
Sysco Food Services of San Francisco
International Brotherhood of Teamsters
Development Bank of South Africa
J&L Structural Steel

Air Line Pilots Association/Delta Air Lines MEC


Sharpsville Quality Products
IPSCO
International Association of Machinists
CSEA/AFSCME
United Auto Workers
Service Employees International Union
American Fed of Television & Radio Artists
Supervalu
United Mine Workers
Algoma Steel
North American Refractories
UNITE/HERE
AFL-CIO George Meany Center
Watermill Ventures
Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel
Canadian Steel Trade & Employment Congress
Minn Gov's Task Force on Mining
Special Metals

RECENT PROJECTS
Metallic Lathers and Reinforcing Ironworkers (2010-2011): strategic industry research and
ongoing advisement on major industry trends and companies to help enhance the competitive
position of the unionized NYC construction industry
Metallurgical Coal Producer (2011): prepared a detailed study on the major trends in the
world metallurgical coal market for a major metallurgical coal producer
Business Plan for High-Tech Startup (2009-present): drafted detailed business plan to raise
capital and promote a new hydrogen battery technology
IBT-Supervalu (2010): assist union and management to identify major operational problems
impacting warehouse performance and provide recommendations for joint improvement

Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (2010): presented a status report on the U.S. steel
market before the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries Commodities roundtable
Email: lockerassociates@yahoo.com | Website: www.lockerassociates.com