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SN 19 ARMY COMMAND AND STAFF COURSE

AL-QUAEDA IN YEMEN
BY MAJ SUDHIR K.C. AUGUST 2012

A term paper submitted to the faculty of the Army Command and Staff College in partial fulfillment of the requirements of Army Command and Staff Course/Masters Degree in Strategic Studies

The contents in the paper reflect my own personal views and are not necessarily endorsed by the Army Command and Staff College.

Abbreviation

AQAP- Al Qaida in Arab peninsula GCCPRACUSAGulf Cooperation Council. Prevention, Rehabilitation,And Aftercare. United States Of America

Table of Contents
Serial Number Contents Page

1. 2.

Cover Page Title Page

i ii

3.

Chapter-I: Introduction 1.1 Background of the study 1.2 Statement of the problem 1.3 Rationale of the study 1.4 Objective of the study 1.5 Limitation of the study 1.6 Research Methodology 1.7 Organization of the Study

1-3

4. 5.

Chapter II: Chapter III:

Literature Review Historical Setting of Terrorism in Yemen

4-5 6-9

2.1 Al-Qaida in Yemen 2.2 Global war on terrorism and drone attack in Yemen 2.3 Failed/weak state and terrorism 6. Chapter IV: Challenges a Head 10-13 Economical political and social challenges 3.1 Growing Population 3.2 Water scarcity: Real challenge to Yemenis 3.3 Illiteracy 3.4 Poverty and Unemployment 3.5 Decrease in Oil production 3.6 Lessons for the Future Why Yemen 3.6.1 Success in Saudi Arabia Chapter V: Conclusion and Recommendation 14-17 6.1 Target Al-Qaida 6.2 End conflicts for stability 6.3 Address Yemeni grievance 6.4 Soft counterterrorism plan Appendix A 18 Appendix B 19 Appendix C 20 References 21-22

7.

8. 9. 10 11.

CHAPTER-I

INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background

Terrorism is following the mankind like an unending nightmare. People cant imagine what will happen to them in next couple of hours. Both developed and underdeveloped countries are suffering from it despite being able to innovate the modern technologies to track and fight against the terrorist organization. Due to globalization of the world the network of the terrorist is growing every day. We can take the example of al Qaeda 9/11 attack in the USA, where 3000 people were killed. The declaration of global war on terrorism by the USA helped to finish up the architect of the 9/11, Osama bin laden but that didnt stopped the terrorist activities, rather the target global war on terrorism which was primarily the Afghanistan bases of Al-Qaida but today most of the activities of Al-Qaida these days are seen in Yemen and are targeted by US drone attack .Similarly the report published by Seton Hall University School of Law shows that out of 517 detainees in Guantanamo bay camp 112 are Yemeni nationals charged with affiliation with Al-Qaida. So post bin laden, to stop the Al-Qaida it is necessary to continue surveillance in Yemen to solve its fragile economic problem, maintain human right and basic necessities, to stop them being the member of the Al-Qaida or to support them. To prevent al-Qaida from using Yemen as their next base for transnational terrorism, the international community must help Yemen address the factors that have allowed AlQaida to exploit the country. 1.2 Statement of the Problem

In this context, what the people of world have assumes was that the terrorist activities by Al-Qaida will be finished after the death of Osama but it didnt happen, however, the activities of terrorism in Yemen have been observed more everyday .So it is necessary to find the major cause to destroy the root of terrorism of Al-Qaida from Yemen which is more active transnational support network. In spite of being poor countries routed by ethnic conflicts many such countries have not seen the trace of

terrorism. What makes Yemen the springboard of terrorism .what independent variable and constant variables is quint essential for a country to be terrorism prone. So the problems are:1.2.1 in Yemen. 1.2.2 This topic is important for the researcher, scholars and the law This research will address the origin and development of Al-Qaida bases

enforcement agencies to react upon or to prepare against the Al-Qaida future war on terrorism. 1.2.3 The scope of this paper would be the origin and growth of Al-Qaida

network in Yemen. In particular, the researcher focuses his effort to scrutinize the ingredients when put together makes an essential recipe for terrorism hub in the context of Yemen. 1.3 Rationale of the Study

This paper will focus on the increasing terrorist activities in Yemen hence the purpose of this study is to find out the answer of the following questions. 1.3.1 1.3.2 1.3.3 Why Yemen is selected for base of al-Qaida? Why the Global war on terror failed to stop Al-Qaida in Yemen? What steps should the Yemen government take ahead to counter the Al-

Qaida network inside the country? 1.4 Objectives of the Study

This paper basically deals with the origin and effects of transnational terrorism in Yemen and the consequences associated with it. Based on following:1.4.1 1.4.2 1.4.3 To study the geopolitics economy and culture of Yemen To study the present activities of Al-Qaida network in Yemen To study the counter measures adopted by the Yemen govt and the USA

to stop Al-Qaida activities in Yemen expanding the network of terrorism from Yemen.

1.5

Research Methodology

In the study ,descriptive and analytical method has been choosen .because of time constraint , the data been used in research work are based on secondary sources. They were obtained through library books, articles, websites and reports produced by different agencies and previous researchers. 1.6 Organization of Chapters

The study has been divided into following chapters: 1.6.1 Chapter -I : Introduction 1.6.2 Chapter -II: Review of the Literature 1.6.3 Chapter -III: Historical Setting of Terrorism in Yemen 1.6.4 Chapter -IV : Challenges a Head

1.6.5 Chapter -V : Conclusion and Recommendation

CHAPTER-II

REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE


The research is based on secondary data sources. The several publication and articles in the internet have been reviewed. 2.1 Nicholas J. Hedberg, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen. In this

paper the writer explained about the weakness of the Yemeni government which does not have the capability to assert effective control over the entirety of its territory. AlQaida has been able to exploit Yemens weaknesses and build strong ties with the Yemeni tribes in the areas of Yemen where the government has little control. , the writer also suggested that ,To prevent al-Qaeda from using Yemen as their next base for transnational terrorism, the international community must help Yemen address the factors that have allowed Al-Qaida to exploit the country. but the writer didnt focused in the comparison of weak state to become a base for Al-Qaida as there are more than 25 failed/weak state in the world. So the researcher will fill the gap why Yemen, the weak state was chosen by the Al-Qaida to exploit its weakness and become a safe haven for transnational terrorism.

2.2

Schultheis, Rob (2009) Hunting Bin Laden: How Al Qaeda is winning the War

on Terror.Jaico publishing house .mumbai-400 001. In this book the writer explained how the seeds of Al-Qaida were planted by foreign Jihadist by covering the Mujahedeens fight against the Soviets, the rise of bin Laden. Similarly he explained how Al-Qaida established an almost impregnable stronghold in the Middle East. He also linked the leading members of the Saudi Arabian ruling class and extremist Sunni groups funds and sponsors the network around the globe. But the main point is that the current instability in the Yemen and the effects of failed state is not focused in this book, so the main aim of my research is to focus and analyse the failed states and effects to breed the terrorism of Al-Qaida in Yemen and effect of poverty for the increment of people participation in terrorism activities.

2.3

Karin, Afsir (1993).Transnational terrorism: The danger in the south. Lancer

papers. New delhi-110049.India.In this book there is good definition of transnational terrorism before the active terrorism of al-Qaida. Here the writer stated the role of foreign terrorist organisation for the assistance and collected funds for supplying weapons establishment of communications networks. But he has not mentioned about how the aid from developed nation is helping to minimize terrorism activities in poor country which will be more important factors and this research will also find out the effects in that matter.

2.4

Combs, Cindy C. (1997) Terrorism in the twenty-first century. Prentice-hall Inc

New Jersey 07458 USANi this book she has tried to define the terrorism with emphasis on a legal, operational definitions applicable to terrorist acts, she has also identified specific characteristics of terrorist and presents various responses to terrorism and their legal description.

2.5

Drone policy in Yemen unsustainable: experts June 29 2012 by Stephen

collinson(http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Jun-29/178662dronepolicy-in-yemen-unsustainable-experts.ashx#ixzz1z9vNWxEy )where the writer quoted that, removing members of militant groups with targeted strikes is not a sustainable solution and does not address the underlying causes that have propelled such forces to find fertile ground in Yemen. So the writer has focused in the underlying causes that should be addressed in Yemen to minimize the Al-Qaida activities in Yemens the gap between the drone attack and the underlying cause is poverty and unstable political condition is going to be focused in this research. Only foreign aid cannot stop the proliferation of Al-Qaida militants and terrorist activities in Yemen.

CHAPTER-III

HISTORICAL SETTING OF TERRORISM IN YEMEN


In the 20th centurys most of the time Yemen was separated in two countries north and south. As they marked their 22nd anniversary on 22may 2012 the 1990n unification has not able to support the Yemenis life toward the prosperity.It a small nation in Middle East with area 536839 sq km.around 27 million people are residing in yemen1.which has Saudi Arabia in north and Oman is east as a neighbor states. The future of Yemen is dragged back in 1990 as it was the sole supporter of Saddam Hussein Kuwait invasion which led the Yemenis future back because around a million workers of Yemen, who were abroad, repatriated from all Arab nation which axed their remittances economy and blown the unemployment to reach higher.It has Islam as major religion and Arabic as its nation language.Due to instability and war between the politicians as well as rebels group Yemen became the failed and weak state.The major problem in Yemen is growing political unrest, the houthi rebellion group and some secessionist who wants two Yemen.In 1994 again the Yemen attempted to split but president Saleh declares state of emergency and succeed to stop it as a result the opposition flee from the Yemen.But Al Baid vice president of Yemen from south declares the independence of south but Saleh rejects secession as illegal.1994 July Northern forces take control of Aden; secessionist leaders flee abroad and are sentenced to death in absentia. As the Yemen was moving ahead it bears another problem of killing of cleric Hussein al-Houthi, the leader of a revolt in the north. In 2004. In 2005 March-April - More than 200 people are killed in a resurgence of fighting between government forces and supporters of the slain rebel cleric Hussein al-Houthi.But in May - President Saleh says the leader of the rebellion in the north has agreed to renounce the campaign in return for a pardon. Minor clashes continue.On March 2006 - More than 600 followers

Eric Schmitt and David E. Sanger, Some in Qaeda Leave Pakistan for Somalia and Yemen, The

New York Times, 12 June 2009. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/12/world/12terror.html.

www.bbc.co.uk/countryprofile/yemen.html

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of slain Shia cleric Hussein al-Houthi who were captured following a rebellion he led in 2004 are released under an amnesty. 3.1 Al-Qaida in Yemen On 1992 December - Bombers hit hotel in Aden formerly used by US marines was taken to be first known al-Qaeda attack in Yemen. The other deadly attack was Suicide attack on destroyer USS Cole in Aden2000 October -.and Bomb attack on British embassy2 in Sana. The above attack justified the presence of Al-Qaida in Yemen. As the Al-Qaida by Osama bin laden was officially formed in 1988 for the liberation of Afghanistan people from soviet invasion. But as jihadist they believe the western presence in holy places like Mecca and medina in Saudi Arabia for attack against Iraq Is insult for Islam as a result they diverted their centre of attack towards the western nation like United States of America. The reason for choosing the first attack against USA is that during Somalia mission the USA made the Yemens Aden as the base for operating in Somalia. Osama bin laden 1957-2011 was more aware about the instability in Yemen as he was born in Saudi Arabia neighbour to yemen.and it was estimated that around 30000 Yemenis participated in Afghanistan to fight against soviet union during 1980-1989.with view this in mind and with the instability poverty illiteracy in Yemen he exploited Yemen for terror plots. 3.2 Global War on Terrorism and Drone Attack in Yemen After 9/11 attack on USA .The USA started global war on terrorism against al Qaida staring with Afghanistan, Pakistan Yemen Somalia etc. 1/3 of detainees of Guantanamo bay are Yemenis involved in Al-Qaida movement so Yemen is taken as the breeding ground of Al-Qaida.With the consent of Yemeni former president Saleh .The USA got favour for war on terrorism as a result they have conducted and captured Yemenis affiliated to Al Quaeda during war on terrorism the USA got success to kill many AlQaida personnel ,see appendix A.. The CIA is targeting the al Qaida militants in the

Gerald F. Seib, Threat Persists in Yemen, Somalia The Wall Street Journal, 13 October 2009,

Eastern edition,

http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=100&SubID=3956&MainCat=6

11

Yemen3 since Nov 4th 2002. They are not involved in the ground action as they are doing in Afghanistan and Iraq but they are more focused in targeting the leaders and militants of such group 4using the drone attack consists of hellfire missile targeting system .The series and results of such attacks are listed in appendix a. But the experts view over drone attack as they said it is unsustainable.Top foreign policy experts have warned U.S. President Barack Obama that his Yemen policy, steeled by lethal drone strikes on terror suspects, is not sustainable and could harm long-term U.S. security. Yemenis perceived America as almost purely concerned with ruthless anti-terrorism operations. However, removing members of militant groups with targeted strikes is not a sustainable solution and does not address the underlying causes that have propelled such forces to find fertile ground in Yemen. 3.3 Failed /Weak State and Terrorism What is a failed state5? A state that is failing has several attributes. One of the most common is the loss of physical control of its territory or a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. Other attributes of state failure include the erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions, an inability to provide reasonable public services, and the inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community. There are 12 indicators which define a failed state. See appendix C. The 12 indicators are: Demographic Pressures, Refugees/IDPs, Group Grievance, Human Flight, Uneven Development, Economic Decline, and Delegitimization of the State, Public Services, Human Rights, Security Apparatus, Factionalized Elites, and External Intervention. Why Yemenis weakness is exploited. The Al-Qaida institution is more active in failed states as we can take the examples of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Somalia6. So they want
3

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1641227/Timeline-al-Qaeda-in-Yemen

http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/01/06/us-yemen-qaeda-timeline-idUSTRE6052XK20100106
4

Richard Spencer, Al Qaedas Afghan Veterans Are Pouring Into Yemen, Says Leading Official, London Daily Telegraph, 11 January 2010, 15.
5

Failed state index .www.fundforpeace.org


Richard Spencer, Al Qaedas Afghan Veterans Are Pouring Into Yemen, Says Leading Official,

12

Yemen to exploit as it is also a failed state, 40% under poverty line etc.As the massive drone attack concentrated in Afghanistan as well as Pakistan the Al-Qaida activities are reduced by 20% in that zone as a result they moved towards the Yemen so for minimize its activities last two years the USA drone attack number is increase in Yemen which are listed in appendix A.

London Daily Telegraph, 11 January 2010, 15.

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CHAPTER-IV

CHALLENGES A HEAD
Economical Political And Social Challenges 4.1 Growing Population Yemen has a population near 24.8 million7 people. The result is that two-thirds of the Population is under the age of 24. The population is expected to double in the next 20 Years to over 40 million people, which will only magnify the economic problems they are Facing today. The Yemeni labour market already cannot produce enough jobs to satisfy The 25,000 people who enter it each year. As the population expands, and the Yemen Economy weakens, more and more Yemenis are going to be without jobs. The growing Population will also decrease the water resources. 4.2 Water Scarcity: Real Challenge To Yemenis Yemen is Running out of water8. Even more, and Sana may be the first International capital in the world without water. According to government reports, renewable fresh water amounts to 2.5 billion cubic meters, while the annual consumption is 3.4 billion cubic meters. These numbers mean that Yemen is using water faster that it can naturally be replenished. In a new ranking of 186 countries, the water stress index rates 17 countries as extreme risk, with the Middle East and North African as Yemen is toping the ranking. Coming closest to running dry is Yemen... According to a report drawn up by the Washington Centre for Strategic and International Studies, within six years the city of Sanaa will have run out of water completely.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ym.html

Mohammed al-Qadhi, Alarm as water taps run dry, The National, 24 September 2009.

http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090925/FOREIGN/709249878/1135.

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Consumption in the Yemeni capital exceeds by a factor of four the amount of water fed back into the underground reserves by local rainfall. Tap water is available only once every four days in Sana, a capital of 2 million people, while in Taiz, a southern city, and tap water is available only every 20 days. The problems created by the shortage of food and water in Yemen are exacerbated by the populations dependence on qat, an extremely profitable crop which requires extensive irrigation and is so widespread that it takes up some 40 % of the countrys water resources."Yemen's water share per capita is under 100 cubic meters a year, compared to the water poverty line of 1,000 cubic meters Unlike wealthy Gulf oil states, Yemen, the Arab world's poorest country, is ill-placed to fill the gap between supply and demand with desalination Desalinating seawater and pumping it 2,000 meters uphill to the inland capital would be hugely expensive Finally they found irrigated agriculture was unsustainable because of the depletion of groundwater, Agriculture sucks up more than 90 percent of water used and a third of that goes to irrigate fields of qat, a mild narcotic intrinsic to the daily social life of most Yemenis. Compared to Yemen's population of 23 million, which is set to double in 20 years. 4.3 Illiteracy The literacy rate is about 50 percent, while the female illiteracy rate is nearly 70 Percent. The lack of Government-run schools has led to the proliferation of religious schools and it is The government has little oversight on what is being taught in the Religious schools, and in a country trying to prevent the radicalization of its citizens from Religious extremists, The challenges are weakening the state and Al-Qaida could not ask for a better Situation in Yemen to attract recruits. The Yemeni population is young, poorly educated, Economically depressed, heavily armed, and the government does not have the ability to Control all regions within its borders. 4.4 Poverty And Unemployment Yemen is the poorest state in the Arab world, with an annual per capita income Under 1460 U.S. dollars and nearly half the population earns less than two dollars per Day. About 45.2 percent of the population lives below the poverty line and more than Half of the children suffer from malnutrition, mainly due to the fact that 5 million Yemenis go hungry each day. The inflation in consumer products is 20 % .after repatriation of

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labours from different Arabian countries the Yemen is facing more than 35% unemployed people in the country which is a huge . The unemployed can be exploited by extremist elements, thus Yemens economic difficulties help contribute to their security concerns. 4.5 Decreases in Oil Production Oil is the backbone of Yemen economy as it contributes 75% Of government revenue. The major problem with oil in Yemen, though, is that it is Running out9. Oil exports in Yemen have dropped from 450,000 barrels per day in 2003 to Around 280,000 barrels per day in January 2009 and the Energy Information Administration expects oil output to decrease even further, to 258,000 barrels per day, in 2013. The World Bank predicts that Yemens oil fields could stop producing revenue as early as 2017 It is estimated that Yemen has proven crude oil reserves of 3 billion barrels as of January 2010. If the economy is not able to provide jobs for the people, the More likely extremists groups like Al-Qaida are going to be able to recruit, and the security Threats and the governments ability to combat them will only worsen. 4.6 Lessons for the Future

Why Yemen Success In Saudi Arabia The big neighbour of the Yemen Saudi Arabia has mounted a successful campaign against the al-Qaeda Organization over the last decade. The study of their success is important to Yemen to fight against al Qaida .from this Yemen can learn how the success of the Saudi government serves as an example of how the Terrorist threat may be countered in Yemen. They outlined their plan to thwart extremism and Radicalization through their PRAC strategy, which stands for Prevention, Rehabilitation, and And Aftercare. . The PRAC

Energy Information Administration, Country Analysis Brief: Yemen, (March 2010), 2.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Yemen/pdf.pdf.

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program has shown Good results, claiming a success rate of 80 to 90 percent. Out of the roughly fourteen Hundred individuals who have been released, the Saudi state claims only thirty-five have Been rearrested for security offenses. A third reason for the failure of jihad in Saudi Arabia was the lack of support of the populace for the extremists. The Saudi government did an excellent job of using the Media to magnify the effect of violence on Muslim life and property, The conditions in Yemen may not be identical to those in Saudi Arabia, but the Example of success can be used to build toward creating stronger institutions in Yemen to Combat the recruiting ability and sympathy of Al-Qaida by the local populace.

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CHAPTER-V

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The study has focused on the fact that Yemen is a Weak state and its failure to provide proper social services to its entire population and its inability to control the whole of its territory has allowed Al-Qaida to rebuild an organization. There are also dozens of Weak states throughout the world, however, in Yemen these challenges threaten to Disrupt not just local stability, but also regional and international stabilityIf left Unaddressed, Yemens problems could potentially destabilize Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States. Yemens history of supporting global jihadists during the Soviet war in Afghanistan, In late January 2010, the United Kingdom held a conference in London to discuss The threat posed by Yemen and the al-Qaeda affiliate that operates from the country. During the conference, Yemen asked the International community to provide $4 billion annually10. Currently, for the upliftment of peoples grievianences. The United Kingdom11 is the single largest foreign donor in Yemen as it has committed $83 Million per year for the next five years. The biggest total donor out of the GCC is Saudi Arabia as they provide investments, grants, and nearly annual direct budgetary Support. Saudi Arabia should especially be concerned about an unstable Yemen. The two countries Share a long porous border and Al-Qaida in Yemen today is a reincarnation of the Al-Qaida Found in Saudi Arabia just a few years ago. USA donation to Yemen is shown in appendix B.The money given to Yemen needs to be Invested in the local communities to help support the governments ability to provide Basic social services to its people to alleviate poverty.

10

Yemen ask donors to follow through on aid, Al Arabiya News Channel (29 March 2010) http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2010/03/29/104381.html 11 Western counter-terrorism help not enough for Yemen, BBC News (29 December 2009) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8433844.stm.

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6.1

Target Al-Qaida

The western nation must continue to assist Yemen in the targeting of Al-Qaida Leaders also by making Yemeni security agencies robust. Recently U.S. special operation forces are giving training Yemeni to security forces in Order to build Yemens capacity to conduct counterterrorism operations and continued Training should take place to improve the Yemeni forces ability to combat Al-Qaida. By Helping Yemeni security forces build their capability, the western nation can eventually .Distance it from operations and prevent a backlash from its involvement. 6.2 End Conflicts For Stability

Yemen has spent a tremendous amount of their limited resources in fighting the Houthi Rebellion and southern secessionists12. Not only have the two campaigns been Costly, the Houthi Rebellion has also led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Yemenis... Until the two Conflicts that the Yemeni government sees as threatening the existence of its regime are eliminated, it is going to continue to maintain only a token fight against the transnational Terrorist threat emanating from its country. By integrating them into the state structure, the government can work to alleviate the grievances and create a community that does not feel threatened by the rest of the population. The Yemeni government needs to do the same thing with the Southern Movement as the Houthi Rebellion, and that Is to include them politically so they can have a voice in how their region of Yemen is Governed. . By bringing the two agitated populations into the political arena, many of the Grievances held by the factions may be solved, and the state can put more money into developing the economy and combating the threat of Al-Qaida. 6.3 Address Yemeni Grievance

Yemeni Government due to its lack of ability to provide the population with the social services provided by most governments around the world. The majority of the grievances stem from the states weakness and Al-Qaida is able to exploit the
12

Yemeni separatists protesters killed, Al Jazeera, (11 March 2010)

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/03/2010311125729623253.html.

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weakness and successfully recruit, train, and conduct operations inside of Yemen. Military strikes, alone, against al-Qaeda are not the answer. The first focus for helping strengthen the Yemeni state should be strengthening The Yemeni economy. The unemployment rate is conservatively estimated at 35 percent, and this serves as a huge recruiting tool for Al-Qaida. The United States and the GCC must Work with Yemen to develop a post-oil economy in areas that can present jobs to the Local population. GCC countries must also re-open their doors to Yemeni labour, as was the situation before the first Gulf War. The Yemeni economy has never recovered from the expulsion of nearly a million Yemenis from the Gulf and the correlating remittances Lost. Security is needed in Yemen to help the economy and a better Economy will help the security situation. Yemen Has a legitimate democratic structure, but much of the population does not see the Government as legitimate because of rampant corruption. Al-Qaida strength in gaining a foothold in Yemeni society has been in its ability to build strong relationships with the Yemeni tribes, who have a strong presence in many parts of Yemen. By eliminating the grievances many of the tribes have with the government, including lack of social services and very little say in the political Process, the Yemeni government can isolate Al-Qaida. By giving them a say and ironing out differences, unity can be saved and the Yemeni government can turn its focus to other major issues that threaten the stability of the region, like the global jihadist agenda of Al-Qaida. Yemen can be strengthened, but it is going to take the help of the important Western donor countries, and most importantly, its neighbours in the Gulf Cooperation Council. 6.4 Soft Counter Terrorism Plan

The Yemeni security services need to eliminate torturing Suspects, something that has only worked to turn more moderates radical, and focus on Rehabilitating Yemenis who may be supporting extremism. If Yemen is able to institute a program under the guidance of Saudi Arabia, Which is able to defeat the extremist ideologies of AlQaida, while at the same time, continue to target the Al-Qaida leadership, the Yemeni government could eliminate the Network in its country. Al-Qaida has been able to exploit the weakness of the state to build a foundation for its organization, and is now capable of conducting operations throughout the Arabian Peninsula and the Western

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world. To combat the threat of Al-Qaida in Yemen and prevent the country from becoming the next headquarters of the al-Qaeda Leadership, the Yemeni state is going to need tremendous help from the West, the Countries in its region and the political will to fight Al-Qaida will need to be increased.

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APPENDIX A (Refer to Para3.2 Page 7 ) DRONE ATTACK IN YEMEN


S.NO 1 DATE INCIDENT Nov 4 2002 U.S. kills Cole suspect ,The United States killed 6 al Qaeda members with a Hellfire missile fired from an unmanned CIA drone at the car

May.6,2011 U.S. military drone targets Al-Awlaki A U.S. military drone fired a missile within the last two days aimed at the U.S.-born radical cleric, but the strike did not appear to have killed

Sep.30,2011

Obama hails demise of al-Qaeda supremo Washington: US President Barack Obama has said the death of senior US-born al-Qaeda leader Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen is a 'major blow' to the organisation

Oct.15,2011

Drone attack kills Al-Awlaki's son Map of Shabwa Yemen The son of U.S.-born militant cleric Anwar Al-Awlaki was among those killed in a trio of drone attacks in southern Yemen

Jan.31,2012

9 killed in suspected drone strikes in Yemen 3 suspected drone strikes hit militant targets in southern Yemen, killing at least nine people believed to be linked to al Qaeda

May.6,2012 Al-Qaeda leader killed in Yemen Fahd al Quso, an al-Qaeda leader in Yemen, wanted in connection with the 2000 bombing of the warship USS Cole has been killed in an air raid

May.13,2012 Drone strikes kill suspected al Qaeda militants Map of Mareb Yemen A pair of U.S. drone strikes killed 11 suspected al Qaeda militants in Mareb province, part of a continuing air campaign targeting the terror organization

SOURCE: http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1641227/Timeline-al-Qaeda-in-Yemen

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APPENDIX B (Refer to Page 14)

U.S. AID TO YEMEN


State Department aid (in millions) to Yemen:

Year
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total
$5.4 $29.7 $17.1 $33.4 $29.1 $18.7 $23.7 $17.7 $30.3 $63

Military
$5.4 $20 $1.9 $14.9 $9.9 $8.4 $9.7 $3.9 $2.8 $12.5

Development

$9.7 $15.2 $18.6 $19.2 $10.3 $14 $13.8 $27.5 $50.5

Source: State Department, Congressional Research Service

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APPENDIX C (Refer to Para 3.3 Page 8 ) FAILED STATE INDEX 2012

Security Apparatus

Refugees and IDPs

Poverty and Economic Decline

Legitimacy of the State

Group Grievance

Public Services

Human Rights

Human Flight

Demographic Pressures

Factionalized Elites
9.8 9.5 9.9 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.4 9.0 9.8 9.6 9.1 9.9 9.2 9.1 9.8 9.2

Uneven Development

Total

1 2 3 N/R 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Somalia Congo (D. R.) Sudan South Sudan Chad Zimbabwe Afghanistan Haiti Yemen Iraq Central African Republic Cote d'Ivoire Guinea Pakistan Nigeria Guinea Bissau

114.9 111.2 109.4 108.4 107.6 106.3 106.0 104.9 104.8 104.3 103.8 103.6 101.9 101.6 101.1 99.2

9.8 9.9 8.4 8.4 9.3 9.0 8.9 9.5 8.8 8.0 8.8 7.9 8.3 8.5 8.4 8.7

10.0 9.7 9.9 9.9 9.5 8.4 9.0 8.1 8.7 8.5 9.7 9.0 8.0 9.0 6.5 7.5

9.6 9.3 10.0 10.0 9.1 8.7 9.4 7.0 9.0 9.7 8.5 9.0 7.9 9.6 9.7 5.7

8.6 7.4 8.3 6.4 7.7 9.0 7.4 8.8 7.0 8.6 5.6 7.6 8.0 7.2 7.6 7.7

8.1 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.9 8.1 8.6 8.4 8.7 8.7 7.7 8.1 8.2 8.9 7.8

9.7 8.8 7.3 7.3 8.3 8.9 7.7 9.5 8.7 7.7 8.0 7.4 8.9 7.2 7.5 9.0

9.9 9.5 9.5 9.1 9.8 9.4 9.5 9.3 9.1 8.4 8.9 9.6 9.5 8.3 9.1 9.3

9.8 9.2 8.5 9.5 9.5 9.1 8.5 9.3 9.0 7.8 9.1 8.3 8.6 7.0 9.1 8.5

9.9 9.7 9.4 9.2 9.3 8.9 8.5 7.7 8.4 8.3 8.5 8.3 8.7 8.6 8.6 7.5

10.0 9.7 9.7 9.7 8.9 8.7 9.7 8.2 9.7 9.9 9.6 8.9 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.4

External Intervention
9.8 9.6 9.5 10.0 7.8 7.5 10.0 9.7 8.3 9.0 9.3 10.0 7.3 9.4 6.6 8.9

24

REFERENCES
Yochi Dreazen, Pentagon To Send More Special Forces Troops to Yemen, Wall Street Journal, Yemen ask donors to follow through on aid, Al Arabiya News Channel (29 March 2011) http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2010/03/29/104381.html. Richard Spencer, Al Qaedas Afghan Veterans Are Pouring Into Yemen, Says Leading Official,London Daily Telegraph, 11 January 2012, 15. International Crisis Group, Yemen: Defusing the Sadah Time Bomb, 2526. Drone policy in Yemen unsustainable: experts June 29 2012 by Stephen collinson(http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Jun29/178662-dronepolicy-in-yemen-unsustainableexperts.ashx#ixzz1z9vNWxEy ) Eric Schmitt and David E. Sanger, Some in Qaeda Leave Pakistan for Somalia and Yemen, The New York Times, 12 June 2011. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/12/world/12terror.html. www.bbc.co.uk/countryprofile/yemen.html Gerald F. Seib, Threat Persists in Yemen, Somalia The Wall Street Journal, 13 October 2011, Eastern edition, http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=100&SubID=3956&Mai nCat=6 http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1641227/Timeline-al-Qaeda-inYemen http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/01/06/us-yemen-qaeda-timelineidUSTRE6052XK20100106 Richard Spencer, Al Qaedas Afghan Veterans Are Pouring Into Yemen, Says Leading Official,

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London Daily Telegraph, 11 January 2011, 15. Failed state index .www.fundforpeace.org Richard Spencer, Al Qaedas Afghan Veterans Are Pouring Into Yemen, Says Leading Official, London Daily Telegraph, 11 January 2010, 15. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/ym.html Mohammed al-Qadhi, Alarm as water taps run dry, The National, 24 September 2009. http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090925/FOREIG N/709249878/1135. Energy Information Administration, Country Analysis Brief: Yemen, (March 2011), 2. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Yemen/pdf.pdf. http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2010/03/29/104381.html Western counter-terrorism help not enough for Yemen, BBC News (29 December 2011) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8433844.stm. Yemeni separatists protesters killed, Al Jazeera, (11 March 2011) http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/03/2010311125729623 253.html.