MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: RE: DATE: Interested Parties Global Strategy Group NY-1 Survey Results March 28,

2012

Tim Bishop leads by a wide margin in his bid for re-election Randy Altschuler struggling across the district with low favorability
Tim Bishop is in a very strong position to win another term in Congress, boasting a strong favorable rating and outpacing his likely rival by double digits, according to a recent poll of 402 likely general election voters. The poll was conducted March 20-25, 2012 by Global Strategy Group (GSG) and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Key findings include: Tim Bishop currently leads Randy Altschuler by 17 points. After a razor-thin victory in 2010, Bishop holds a strong lead over Randy Altschuler, 53% to 36% with 11% undecided. Tim Bishops favorable rating is strong and he is well liked across partisan lines. Congressman Bishop maintains a +24 net positive favorable rating (55% favorable/31% unfavorable). Bishop is not only popular with Democrats (69% favorable rating), but with 59% of Independents and even four in ten Republicans (40%). Randy Altschuler is a weak candidate scarred from his unsuccessful 2010 campaign. Altschulers favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is nearly even (28% favorable/21% unfavorable) and even worse with Independent voters (26%/24%). Bishops strong standing can partly be attributed to a clear shift in the political environment since the GOP wave of 2010. In October of 2010 prior to Congressman Bishops razor-thin victory the political environment in this district favored the GOP. But 2012 looks different due to a shift in attitudes and the inclusion of presidential-year voters more favorable to the Democratic Party. In late 2010, a generic Democrat trailed a generic Republican by five points in the district (37% to 42%), but today a generic Democrat leads by three (43% to 40%). Additionally, the Tea Partys unfavorable rating has risen by 14 points (from 38% in October 2010 to 52% today) and President Obama leads Mitt Romney 51% to 43% in a head-to-head vote. In sum, this presidential-year electorate is no doubt a better one for Congressman Bishop. The bottom line is this: Randy Altschuler failed to unseat Tim Bishop in 2010 even though Altschuler spent a fortune and it was a banner Republican year. The 2012 dynamic is different Bishop is in a stronger position and Altschulers standing with voters is significantly weaker. With the appropriate funding and resources, Bishop is in strong position to combat the expected onslaught of negative attacks from Altschuler and win re-election to Congress.

NEW YORK WASHINGTON, D.C. HARTFORD LOS ANGELES

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