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Market Outlook

September 6, 2012

Dealers Diary

Domestic Indices

Indian markets are expected to open flat with a negative bias tracking SGX Nifty
which is marginally trading in the red currently. Most of the Asian markets are
currently trading in the positive zone.

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE Sensex

(0.7) (127.5) 17,313

Nifty

(0.9)

(48.3)

5,226

MID CAP

(0.3)

(18.9)

6,024

SMALL CAP

(0.5)

(31.2)

6,391

The US markets closed mixed for a second straight session on Wednesday. While
the Dow Jones inched up by a marginal 0.1%, the Nasdaq fell by 0.2%. The
markets remained directionless throughout the day ahead of the European Central
Banks meeting scheduled on Thursday. The markets largely shrugged off a report
which showed that US labor productivity increased much more than estimates in
the second quarter. Most of the European markets ended higher on Wednesday.

BSE HC

(0.9)

(67.6)

7,400

BSE PSU

(1.1)

(73.6)

6,901

BANKEX

(1.8) (208.9) 11,293

AUTO

(1.0)

(95.7)

9,240

METAL

(2.6) (256.3)

9,454

OIL & GAS

(0.6)

(49.4)

8,194

Meanwhile the Indian markets fell on Wednesday tracking the slide in most of the
Asian markets amidst concerns over weak domestic economy and absence of
major policy announcements on the reforms front.

BSE IT

(0.1)

(5.4)

5,726

(Pts)

(Close)

Global Indices

Dow Jones
NASDAQ

Chg (%)

(0.4)

(54.9) 13,036

0.3

8.1

3,075

FTSE

(0.0)

(1.7)

5,670

The trend deciding level for the day is 17,325 / 5,234 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 17,400 17,486 / 5,252 5,277 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
17,325 / 5,234 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
17,239 17,164 / 5,208 5,190 levels.

Nikkei

(1.1)

(95.7)

8,680

Hang Seng

(1.5) (284.8) 19,145

Straits Times

(0.5)

(15.7)

2,996

Shanghai Com

(0.3)

(6.0)

2,038

Indices

Indian ADRs

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

0.4

0.2

$42.4

Markets Today

SENSEX
NIFTY

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

17,164

17,239

17,325

17,400

17,486

INFY

5,190

5,208

5,234

5,252

5,277

WIT

(0.3)

(0.0)

$7.8

IBN

(2.1)

(0.7)

$32.3

0.4

0.1

$33.7

News Analysis

HDB

Public sector banks start reducing retail lending rates


SBI cuts retail term deposit rates by 100 bps across maturities

Advances / Declines

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (September 4, 2012)


Purch

Sales

Net

MTD

YTD

FII

1,634

1,332

303

256

63,267

290

354

(64)

(216)

(9,649)

FII Derivatives (September 5, 2012)


` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

Index Futures

1,325

1,712

(387)

9,834

Stock Futures

1,047

1,561

(514)

24,180

Open Interest

Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company

Losers

Price (`)

chg (%)

Torrent Power

164

4.0

Bharti Airtel

258

3.3

Axis Bank

930

(4.9)

GMR Infra

20

2.9

REC

182

(4.8)

Wockhardt

1,216

2.7

Jindal Steel

336

(4.8)

77

2.5

India Cements

80

(4.5)

Idea Cellular

www.angelbroking.com

NSE

Advances

1,235

594

Declines

1,558

883

142

92

Unchanged

` cr
MFs

BSE

Company
BHEL

Price (`)

chg (%)

208

(5.0)

Volumes (` cr)

BSE

1,978

NSE

8,813

Market Outlook
September 6, 2012

Public sector banks start reducing retail lending rates


Public sector banks following on the footsteps of State bank of India have started
reducing their lending rates on retail loans. Punjab National Bank, Union Bank,
Central Bank, Corporation Bank, Oriental Bank, Vijaya Bank and Dena Bank have
all reduced their lending rates across home, auto, personal, educational and gold
loan segments. The clamor for shoring up retail assets has intensified lately as
currently retail lending is offering higher risk adjusted yields compared to other
segments. Most banks have also waived off or reduced their processing charges
on these loans to attract more customers. The reduction in retail loan rates is
expected to lead to higher retail market share for PSU banks while further
intensifying the competition within the retail loan segment.

SBI cuts retail term deposit rates by 100 bps across


maturities
State bank of India (SBI) has cut its retail term deposit rates by 50-100bp across all
maturities except 5 years and above. The new rates will be effective from
September 07, 2012. The downward revision is expected to push up the margins
of the bank which witnessed significant decline in 1QFY2013 on account of asset
quality pressures. We expect the calculated NIMs of the bank to sustain at 3.5%
levels for both FY2013 and FY2014. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.2x
(including subsidiaries) FY2014E ABV and we recommend a buy on the stock with
a target price of `2270

Economic and Political News

CBI widens coal probe, six more firms on radar


Aug services PMI rises to 55, highest in 6 months
RBI to buy bonds if liquidity deficit stays above comfort level

Corporate News

Jindal Steel arm acquires Canadas CIC Energy for US $ 115mn


Suzlon inks 332 MW offshore contract with RWE Innogy
BHEL signs preliminary deal with Tajikistan for 100-MW project
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
September 06, 2012

Global economic events release calendar


Date

September 06, 2012

Country

Event Description

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported

Estimated

US

Initial Jobless claims

Thousands

Sep 1

374.00

370.00

Euro Zone

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

% Change

2Q P

(0.20)

(0.20)

UK

BOE Announces rates

% Ratio

Sep 6

0.50

0.50

Euro Zone

ECB announces interest rates

Sep 6

0.75

0.50

UK

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Jul

(4.30)

(2.70)

US

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

Thousands

Aug

163.00

125.00

US

Unnemployment rate

Aug

8.30

8.30

China

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Aug

9.20

9.00

China

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

% Change

Aug

1.80

2.00

September 10, 2012

China

Exports YoY%

% Change

Aug

1.00

3.00

September 12, 2012

UK

Jobless claims change

% Change

Aug

(5.90)

--

India

Industrial Production YoY

% Change

Jul

(1.80)

--

US

Producer Price Index (mom)

% Change

Aug

0.30

1.10

US

FOMC rate decision

Sep 13

0.25

--

Euro Zone

Aug

2.40

--

% Change

Aug

6.87

--

US

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)


Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Industrial Production

Aug

0.65

0.20

US

Consumer price index (mom)

% Change

Aug

--

0.50

India

RBI Repo rate

Sep 17

8.00

--

India

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

Sep 17

4.75

--

September 07, 2012

September 09, 2012

September 13, 2012

September 14, 2012

India

September 17, 2012

India

RBI Reverse Repo rate

September 18, 2012

UK

CPI (YoY)

Sep 17

7.00

--

% Change

Aug

2.60

--

September 19, 2012

US

Existing home sales

Millions

Aug

4.47

--

US

Housing Starts

Thousands

Aug

746.00

--

US

Thousands

Aug

811.00

--

Value

Sep A

(24.60)

--

Germany

Building permits
Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
PMI Manufacturing

Sep A

44.70

--

September 25, 2012

US

Consumer Confidence

Sep

60.60

--

September 26, 2012

US

New home sales

Value
S.A./
1985=100
Thousands

Aug

372.00

--

September 27, 2012

Germany

Unemployment change (000's)

Thousands

Sep

9.00

--

US

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

% Change

2Q T

1.70

--

UK

GDP (YoY)

% Change

2Q F

(0.50)

--

India

Imports YoY%

% Change

Aug

(7.60)

--

India

Exports YoY%

% Change

Aug

(14.80)

--

UK

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Sep

49.50

--

China

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Sep

49.20

--

October 18, 2012

China

Real GDP (YoY)

% Change

3Q

7.60

--

November 15, 2012

Germany

GDP nsa (YoY)

% Change

3Q P

0.50

--

September 20, 2012

October 01, 2012

Euro Zone

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

Market Strategy
September 06, 2012

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)

(%)

10.0

8.0

9.2

9.0

8.5

9.0

8.2
7.6

7.5

8.0

6.0
6.0

8.0

5.3 5.5

5.0

1.0

2.0

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

2QFY10

1QFY10

4QFY09
(%)

9.9

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Mfg. PMI

Services PMI

58.0

9.5
7.7

8.0

Dec-11

(5.0)

60.0
10.0

(1.8)

(2.8) (0.9)

(6.0)

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

12.0
9.8

Nov-11

Oct-11

(4.0)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

6.9

7.4

7.7

7.5

7.6

7.3

56.0
6.9

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


(%)

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

48.0

Dec-11

0.0

Nov-11

50.0

Oct-11

2.0

Sep-11

52.0

Aug-11

4.0

Aug-11

54.0

6.0

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

60.0

(%)
9.00

45.0

8.00

30.0

7.00

Exports yoy growth

Imports yoy growth

Repo rate

Reverse Repo rate

CRR

6.00

15.0

5.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

4.00

Aug-11

(30.0)

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

Aug-11

0.0
(15.0)

Sep-11

Jul-11

(2.0)

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Aug-11

3.5

3.0

10.0

2.5

2.7

2.5

Sep-11

4.0

3.4

6.1

5.7

6.0

4.3

3.7

4.0

6.7

7.0

Market Outlook
September 06, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

139

2,697

1,466

1,686

14.8

14.8

7.0

8.1

19.8

17.1

4.2

3.6

22.6

22.5

1.9

1.6

United Phosphorus

Buy

120

170

5,545

8,421

9,263

16.5

16.5

15.0

17.0

8.0

7.1

1.2

1.0

15.6

15.5

0.8

0.7

Amara Raja Batteries

Accumulate

371

402

3,170

2,844

3,225

15.4

15.5

31.7

36.6

11.7

10.2

3.0

2.4

28.8

26.2

1.1

0.9

Apollo Tyres

Accumulate

92

99

4,640

13,412

15,041

11.0

11.0

11.5

14.2

8.0

6.5

1.4

1.2

18.7

19.4

0.5

0.4

Ashok Leyland

Buy

21

30

5,508

14,920

16,850

9.0

9.3

2.2

2.8

9.5

7.5

1.7

1.5

13.3

15.6

0.5

0.4

Automotive Axle

Buy

341

430

515

993

1,140

11.6

11.5

36.9

43.0

9.2

7.9

1.8

1.6

21.2

21.3

0.6

0.4

Bajaj Auto

Neutral

1,646

47,620

21,285

23,927

18.2

18.3

108.5

121.3

15.2

13.6

6.3

5.1

46.1

41.3

1.9

1.6

Bharat Forge

Buy

275

351

6,404

7,004

7,985

16.2

16.4

20.3

25.1

13.5

11.0

2.5

2.1

20.0

20.9

1.1

0.9

Bosch India

Neutral

8,466

26,583

9,034

10,286

17.8

18.3

373.6

435.8

22.7

19.4

4.7

3.9

20.5

19.8

2.6

2.2

CEAT

Buy

110

164

377

4,989

5,634

8.7

8.5

32.7

41.1

3.4

2.7

0.5

0.4

15.8

16.9

0.3

0.2

Exide Industries

Neutral

143

12,138

5,899

6,771

16.0

17.0

7.4

9.1

19.4

15.6

3.5

2.9

19.0

20.2

1.7

1.4

FAG Bearings

Neutral

1,578

2,623

1,505

1,747

17.7

18.0

111.5

130.0

14.2

12.1

2.9

2.4

22.8

21.7

1.5

1.2

Hero Motocorp

Buy

1,808

2,428

36,107

26,097

29,963

15.0

15.3

139.5

151.8

13.0

11.9

6.1

4.6

54.6

44.3

1.1

1.0

JK Tyre

Buy

110

135

452

7,517

8,329

6.1

6.3

26.2

38.5

4.2

2.9

0.5

0.5

13.4

17.2

0.3

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy

755

879

46,334

36,536

41,650

11.6

11.5

49.3

54.9

15.3

13.8

3.2

2.7

22.1

21.1

1.0

0.9

1,174

33,931

42,887

49,079

5.5

6.6

66.8

87.6

17.6

13.4

2.0

1.8

12.1

14.1

0.6

0.5

Buy

192

228

7,521

24,173

27,055

6.6

7.1

11.7

15.2

16.4

12.6

3.4

2.8

22.4

24.2

0.5

0.4

Subros

Buy

27

34

163

1,230

1,378

8.8

8.6

4.5

5.7

6.0

4.8

0.6

0.6

9.8

11.8

0.4

0.3

Tata Motors

Buy

229

292

60,951 195,096 219,428

12.8

12.8

39.0

43.9

5.9

5.2

1.7

1.3

32.6

28.2

0.4

0.3

TVS Motor

Accumulate

38

43

1,784

7,545

8,301

6.2

6.1

4.9

5.4

7.6

7.0

1.4

1.2

18.8

18.2

0.2

0.2

Maruti

Neutral

Motherson Sumi

Capital Goods
ABB*

Sell

716

498

15,178

8,760

10,023

5.5

7.5

12.4

20.7

57.7

34.5

5.5

4.9

10.1

15.2

1.7

1.5

BGR Energy

Neutral

258

1,862

3,669

4,561

11.0

11.0

24.7

29.6

10.5

8.7

1.5

1.4

15.3

16.7

0.6

BHEL

Neutral

208

50,910

47,801

43,757

19.4

19.8

25.7

23.9

8.1

8.7

1.7

1.5

22.7

18.3

1.0

0.9

Blue Star

Neutral

170

1,528

3,047

3,328

5.4

6.9

12.5

16.2

13.6

10.5

3.3

2.7

26.1

28.2

0.6

0.5

Crompton Greaves

Buy

107

128

6,874

12,691

14,096

7.0

8.5

6.5

9.1

16.5

11.7

1.8

1.6

11.1

14.2

0.5

0.5

Jyoti Structures

Buy

38

59

312

2,622

2,801

10.3

10.7

8.7

13.1

4.4

2.9

0.4

0.4

10.3

14.0

0.3

0.3

KEC International

Buy

54

69

1,386

6,858

7,431

7.5

8.3

9.0

11.5

6.0

4.7

1.1

0.9

26.9

27.2

0.3

0.3

LMW

Neutral

1,943

2,189

2,369

2,727

11.7

11.7

143.4

166.0

13.6

11.7

2.3

2.1

17.4

18.4

0.5

0.3

Thermax

Neutral

486

5,789

5,514

5,559

8.9

9.6

26.9

28.4

18.1

17.1

3.1

2.8

18.4

17.1

1.0

1.0

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
September 06, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Cement
ACC

Neutral

1,302

24,435

11,220

12,896

20.0

20.6

71.1

81.2

18.3

16.0

3.2

2.9

18.1

19.0

1.9

1.6

Ambuja Cements

Neutral

180

27,772

10,205

11,659

24.6

24.2

10.8

12.0

16.7

15.0

3.5

3.1

19.7

19.8

2.4

1.9

India Cements

Neutral

81

2,485

4,393

4,914

19.3

19.5

10.1

12.7

8.0

6.4

0.7

0.7

8.8

10.6

1.0

0.9

J K Lakshmi Cements

Neutral

95

1,162

1,964

2,278

19.5

20.4

16.3

17.9

5.8

5.3

0.8

0.7

14.7

14.6

0.7

1.1

Madras Cements

Neutral

182

4,339

3,608

3,928

27.4

26.9

15.6

18.1

11.7

10.1

1.8

1.6

16.8

16.9

1.8

1.6

Shree Cements

Neutral

3,403

11,855

5,767

6,337

28.4

26.9

216.9

253.3

15.7

13.4

5.4

4.6

24.7

23.4

1.5

1.1

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,673

45,857

20,167

22,752

21.7

23.0

90.8

107.8

18.4

15.5

18.4

15.5

1.9

1.7

255

304

1,340

2,029

2,310

22.4

22.4

27.1

31.7

9.4

8.0

1.2

1.0

13.1

13.4

1.9

2.2

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

14

254

2,262

2,522

6.7

7.5

1.5

2.7

9.2

5.2

0.4

0.4

4.4

7.5

0.4

0.4

Hind. Const.

Neutral

16

946

4,239

4,522

9.9

11.2

(2.3)

(1.0)

(6.9)

(16.2)

0.9

1.0

(11.4)

(5.6)

1.1

1.1

IRB Infra

Buy

126

166

4,194

3,964

4,582

42.3

40.2

15.5

16.9

8.2

7.5

1.3

1.1

16.6

15.8

2.6

2.5

ITNL

Buy

164

232

3,179

6,840

7,767

26.4

26.1

24.4

28.4

6.7

5.8

1.0

0.9

16.0

16.2

2.6

2.8

IVRCL Infra

Buy

39

51

1,208

5,510

6,722

8.8

9.0

2.5

4.6

15.5

8.6

0.5

0.5

3.4

5.8

0.7

0.6

Jaiprakash Asso.

Buy

64

91

13,577

15,259

17,502

25.7

24.7

4.2

5.0

15.1

12.8

1.2

1.2

8.5

9.3

2.2

2.0

Larsen & Toubro

Accumulate

1,324

1,568

81,290

60,474

69,091

12.1

11.5

79.7

85.4

16.6

15.5

2.8

2.5

16.3

15.1

1.5

1.4

Madhucon Proj

Buy

29

56

213

2,206

2,502

10.7

10.7

4.6

4.7

6.2

6.2

0.3

0.3

5.2

5.0

0.7

0.7

Nagarjuna Const.

Buy

33

45

838

5,804

6,513

8.0

8.6

3.0

3.5

10.7

9.3

0.3

0.3

3.2

3.6

0.6

0.6

Patel Engg.

Neutral

65

451

3,609

3,836

13.1

13.1

14.0

14.6

4.6

4.4

0.3

0.3

6.3

6.1

1.0

1.0

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

44

1,475

11,892

13,116

8.9

8.9

1.7

3.1

26.2

14.4

0.5

0.5

1.9

3.4

0.5

0.5

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

128

182

1,922

2,506

3,147

10.3

10.7

7.5

10.4

17.0

12.3

2.1

1.8

13.5

16.0

1.0

0.8

Simplex Infra

Buy

194

265

959

6,732

7,837

8.1

8.4

23.5

29.4

8.2

6.6

0.8

0.7

9.6

11.0

0.5

0.4

Allahabad Bank

Accumulate

119

128

5,968

7,233

8,579

3.1

3.3

40.5

40.9

3.0

2.9

0.5

0.5

19.4

17.0

Andhra Bank

Neutral

90

5,059

4,959

5,787

3.1

3.1

22.7

24.5

4.0

3.7

0.6

0.6

16.0

15.3

Axis Bank

Buy

930

1,373

38,558

15,961

19,583

3.1

3.2

117.3

143.1

7.9

6.5

1.5

1.3

20.1

20.8

Bank of Baroda

Buy

613

829

23,988

15,830

19,300

2.6

2.7

118.9

147.1

5.2

4.2

0.8

0.7

16.7

18.0

Bank of India

Buy

256

323

14,663

13,159

15,851

2.4

2.5

61.1

71.1

4.2

3.6

0.7

0.6

16.6

17.0

Bank of Maharashtra

Neutral

Canara Bank

Buy

Central Bank

Neutral

Financials

www.angelbroking.com

44

2,565

3,471

3,889

3.1

3.1

9.0

11.5

4.8

3.8

0.6

0.6

13.7

15.5

318

421

14,090

11,334

13,629

2.2

2.3

75.4

85.1

4.2

3.7

0.6

0.6

15.2

15.3

66

4,855

7,181

8,365

2.5

2.7

16.3

21.8

4.0

3.0

0.7

0.6

12.7

15.1

Market Outlook
September 06, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Financials
Corporation Bank

Buy

372

436

5,508

5,067

5,998

2.1

2.3

105.6

111.0

3.5

3.4

0.6

0.5

17.6

16.3

Dena Bank

Buy

86

107

3,012

3,177

3,595

2.8

2.8

25.2

25.4

3.4

3.4

0.6

0.5

18.9

16.4

Federal Bank

Accumulate

401

458

6,855

2,697

3,171

3.4

3.4

47.9

58.0

8.4

6.9

1.1

1.0

13.6

14.7

HDFC

Neutral

725

111,233

7,340

8,805

3.5

3.5

31.5

37.8

23.0

19.2

4.6

4.1

34.8

32.2

HDFC Bank

Neutral

592

139,695

21,936

27,454

4.4

4.4

28.7

36.0

20.7

16.4

4.0

3.3

20.7

22.0

ICICI Bank

Buy

880

1,169

101,101

22,356

27,157

2.9

3.0

68.7

82.0

12.8

10.7

1.6

1.4

14.2

15.5

IDBI Bank

Buy

86

101

11,033

7,952

9,876

1.9

2.2

18.5

23.6

4.7

3.7

0.6

0.5

12.8

14.7

Indian Bank

Buy

156

190

6,698

6,294

7,191

3.4

3.4

40.6

44.9

3.8

3.5

0.6

0.6

18.1

17.4

IOB

Buy

67

80

5,336

7,473

8,732

2.5

2.5

16.7

22.6

4.0

3.0

0.5

0.4

11.8

14.4

J & K Bank

Accumulate

899

1,026

4,356

2,625

2,921

3.6

3.5

194.4

191.9

4.6

4.7

0.9

0.8

21.2

18.0

LIC Housing Finance

Buy

238

279

12,021

1,867

2,338

2.4

2.4

21.1

28.5

11.3

8.4

1.9

1.6

17.5

20.4

Oriental Bank

Buy

218

278

6,371

6,518

7,458

2.8

2.9

61.3

65.1

3.6

3.4

0.5

0.5

15.2

14.3

Punjab Natl.Bank

Buy

669

950

22,679

20,116

23,625

3.3

3.4

152.8

173.9

4.4

3.9

0.8

0.7

18.2

18.0

South Ind.Bank

Buy

22

25

2,447

1,514

1,717

2.8

2.7

4.0

4.2

5.4

5.1

1.0

0.9

20.5

18.5

St Bk of India

Buy

1,832

2,270

122,915

64,470

75,940

3.5

3.5

224.4

258.7

8.2

7.1

1.4

1.2

17.6

17.8

Syndicate Bank

Buy

94

119

5,667

6,840

7,996

2.9

3.0

25.7

29.2

3.7

3.2

0.6

0.5

17.9

17.8

UCO Bank

Neutral

64

4,251

5,488

6,338

2.4

2.5

17.3

17.7

3.7

3.6

0.7

0.6

17.0

15.3

Union Bank

Buy

158

230

8,677

10,299

12,227

2.9

3.0

42.1

49.3

3.8

3.2

0.7

0.6

16.7

17.1

United Bank

Buy

52

79

1,865

3,634

4,194

2.8

2.9

18.2

23.0

2.8

2.3

0.4

0.4

15.0

16.7

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

47

2,329

2,579

3,028

2.1

2.3

8.8

11.6

5.3

4.1

0.6

0.6

11.1

13.3

Yes Bank

Buy

324

453

11,512

3,255

4,228

2.8

3.0

34.2

42.7

9.5

7.6

2.0

1.7

23.3

23.8

3,646

34,973

11,198

13,184

16.3

16.3

121.0

144.8

30.1

25.2

10.1

8.0

37.4

35.3

3.1

2.6

501

584

5,989

5,835

6,824

5.7

6.0

20.7

25.4

24.2

19.8

9.5

7.3

43.1

41.9

1.0

0.8

1,219

16,575

3,018

3,429

20.9

22.3

34.6

41.0

35.2

29.8

32.4

24.6

99.5

94.1

5.3

4.7

FMCG
Asian Paints

Neutral

Britannia

Buy

Colgate

Neutral

Dabur India

Neutral

128

22,240

6,124

7,030

17.0

16.8

4.5

5.2

28.6

24.7

11.8

9.3

43.2

41.5

3.7

3.1

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

2,889

12,152

3,124

3,663

17.1

17.6

104.5

123.8

27.7

23.4

8.6

6.9

34.4

32.8

3.5

3.0

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

678

23,069

6,097

7,233

18.4

18.6

21.9

26.5

31.0

25.6

6.9

5.7

25.5

25.4

4.0

3.3

HUL

Neutral

531

114,775

25,350

28,974

13.9

13.9

14.3

16.5

37.2

32.2

22.2

17.1

70.9

59.8

4.2

3.7

ITC

Neutral

268

210,295

29,513

33,885

35.4

35.8

9.3

10.8

28.9

24.9

9.6

8.0

35.6

35.0

6.8

5.9

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
September 06, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FMCG
Marico

Neutral

204

13,158

4,840

5,643

13.1

13.1

6.8

8.5

30.1

24.2

8.3

6.3

31.4

29.7

2.8

2.3

Nestle*

Neutral

4,590

44,254

8,610

10,174

20.9

21.2

114.8

139.8

40.0

32.8

24.1

16.8

71.2

60.3

5.2

4.3

Tata Global

Neutral

134

8,265

7,207

7,927

9.7

10.0

6.6

7.9

20.2

17.0

2.1

2.0

8.6

9.5

1.0

0.9

HCL Tech

Neutral

562

38,978

24,400

27,049

18.6

17.5

41.1

45.0

13.7

12.5

3.1

2.6

22.7

21.1

1.5

1.3

Hexaware

Accumulate

125

133

3,698

1,947

2,161

22.0

21.4

11.4

12.1

11.0

10.3

2.8

2.4

26.4

24.0

1.6

1.4

Infosys

Accumulate

2,338

2,530

134,281

39,151

41,743

31.6

31.9

161.9

174.5

14.5

13.4

3.4

3.0

23.8

22.1

2.9

2.6

Infotech Enterprises

Neutral

179

1,997

1,889

2,065

18.0

17.5

18.0

19.7

9.9

9.1

1.4

1.3

14.5

13.7

0.7

0.6

KPIT Cummins

Neutral

129

2,293

2,149

2,331

15.6

14.8

10.7

11.2

12.0

11.4

2.5

2.0

20.6

17.8

1.1

0.9

Mahindra Satyam

Neutral

96

11,303

7,574

8,062

19.6

18.4

9.5

9.7

10.2

10.0

1.6

1.4

16.1

14.1

1.1

0.9

Mindtree

Accumulate

677

708

2,766

2,341

2,513

18.6

17.1

66.5

70.8

10.2

9.6

2.3

1.8

22.3

19.3

1.0

0.9

Mphasis

Neutral

382

8,018

5,704

6,009

18.6

17.7

36.0

37.1

10.6

10.3

1.5

1.3

14.0

12.6

0.9

0.8

NIIT

Buy

30

40

501

1,162

1,304

14.8

15.1

7.1

8.8

4.3

3.5

0.7

0.6

16.7

18.4

0.3

0.2

Persistent

Neutral

383

1,531

1,193

1,278

25.6

24.3

42.6

44.3

9.0

8.7

1.6

1.3

17.2

15.5

0.9

0.8

TCS

Neutral

1,361

266,407

61,046

67,507

29.3

29.1

67.3

72.4

20.2

18.8

6.4

5.3

31.9

28.3

4.1

3.7

Tech Mahindra

Neutral

832

10,612

6,148

6,434

18.4

17.6

91.8

97.6

9.1

8.5

2.1

1.7

23.4

20.2

1.7

1.5

Wipro

Buy

362

420

88,988

43,492

48,332

19.4

19.3

25.1

28.0

14.4

12.9

2.7

2.3

18.6

18.0

1.7

1.4

D B Corp

Buy

199

236

3,647

1,597

1,785

22.9

24.2

11.1

13.9

17.9

14.3

3.4

2.9

20.2

22.1

2.1

1.8

HT Media

Buy

89

113

2,100

2,111

2,263

15.2

15.2

7.3

8.1

12.2

11.0

1.3

1.2

11.2

11.2

0.6

0.4

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

90

112

2,854

1,506

1,687

22.5

23.2

6.2

7.0

14.5

12.9

3.5

3.1

25.0

25.7

2.1

1.9

PVR

Neutral

180

468

625

732

17.4

17.1

13.3

15.6

13.5

11.5

1.5

1.3

13.2

13.8

1.2

1.0

Sun TV Network

Neutral

297

11,700

1,981

2,239

77.0

76.7

18.6

21.3

16.0

13.9

4.0

3.5

27.1

27.5

5.4

4.6

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

462

9,810

11,979

14,584

31.6

31.0

49.2

61.4

9.4

7.5

1.2

1.1

14.1

15.2

2.8

2.3

Coal India

Accumulate

358

385

226,347

69,808

75,550

27.4

27.4

26.0

28.3

13.8

12.7

4.0

3.2

32.5

28.1

2.3

2.0

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

17

23

600

1,984

2,074

11.2

12.6

2.5

2.9

7.0

6.1

0.3

0.1

5.1

5.7

0.5

0.4

Hind. Zinc

Accumulate

126

144

53,239

12,446

13,538

52.3

52.9

14.3

15.5

8.8

8.1

1.7

1.4

20.5

18.9

2.5

1.9

Hindalco

Neutral

101

19,337

84,855

92,446

8.7

9.3

13.2

16.2

7.7

6.2

0.6

0.5

7.8

8.9

0.6

0.5

JSW Steel

Neutral

654

14,596

38,740

41,459

17.3

17.0

79.9

89.4

8.2

7.3

0.8

0.7

10.4

10.6

0.8

0.8

MOIL

Accumulate

244

271

4,101

918

993

50.7

50.9

24.5

26.1

10.0

9.4

1.5

1.4

16.0

15.5

2.1

1.8

Monnet Ispat

Buy

294

379

1,891

2,511

3,303

23.8

26.0

46.3

57.3

6.4

5.1

0.7

0.6

12.4

13.7

1.7

1.2

IT

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
September 06, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

50

12,886

183

214

72,455

Sales ( cr )
FY13E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

7,401

7,841

16.7

19.2

12,934

14,266

79.4

80.1

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

3.4

4.1

14.6

12.2

1.1

1.0

21.1

23.4

8.7

7.8

2.3

1.9

FY13E

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

7.4

8.4

1.3

1.2

29.6

26.5

3.9

3.3

Metals & Mining


Nalco

Neutral

NMDC

Accumulate

SAIL

Neutral

Sesa Goa

Accumulate

Sterlite Inds
Tata Steel

76

31,557

47,252

60,351

14.2

14.8

9.6

11.7

8.0

6.5

0.7

0.7

9.4

10.6

1.1

0.9

164

192

14,284

7,704

8,034

33.6

34.6

42.0

43.1

3.9

3.8

0.8

0.7

22.3

19.2

0.2

(0.2)

Buy

93

115

31,321

41,680

45,382

24.2

23.2

16.3

16.9

5.7

5.5

0.6

0.6

11.3

10.7

0.4

0.3

Buy

351

481

34,060 145,799 150,431

10.3

11.2

48.6

63.3

7.2

5.5

0.7

0.7

10.5

12.4

0.5

0.5

Sarda

Buy

116

148

417

1,251

1,321

22.7

23.4

33.0

37.1

3.5

3.1

0.5

0.4

15.1

14.8

0.7

0.6

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

49

73

660

2,694

2,906

14.6

16.6

17.9

22.6

2.8

2.2

0.3

0.3

11.4

12.8

0.5

0.3

Buy

112

161

355

2,341

2,425

15.6

17.3

33.8

43.8

3.3

2.6

0.4

0.3

13.2

14.4

0.5

0.5

Cairn India

Accumulate

334

380

63,675

16,605

17,258

75.4

71.7

57.0

54.9

5.9

6.1

1.1

0.9

20.2

16.3

2.9

2.3

GAIL

Neutral

355

44,993

50,176

55,815

15.5

15.8

35.4

36.5

10.0

9.7

1.8

1.6

18.9

17.0

0.1

ONGC

Accumulate

273

312

233,565 147,139 154,821

33.9

33.7

30.7

32.3

8.9

8.5

1.5

1.4

18.3

17.2

1.3

1.2

Reliance Industries

Neutral

771

252,484 362,700 380,031

Gujarat Gas

Neutral

295

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

241

3,371

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Accumulate

158

176

11,843

78

4,395

Alembic Pharma

Buy

74

91

Aurobindo Pharma

Buy

116

156

Aventis*

Neutral

2,194

Cadila Healthcare

Accumulate

Cipla

Accumulate

Dr Reddy's

Neutral

Dishman Pharma

Neutral

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

Indoco Remedies

Buy

69

92

639

Ipca labs

Accumulate

431

475

5,438

Lupin

Accumulate

586

647

26,193

Orchid Chemicals

Neutral

109

770

Neutral

www.angelbroking.com

7.9

8.0

61.5

64.3

12.6

12.0

1.2

1.2

10.3

9.9

0.7

0.6

3,267

16.1

11.5

21.2

19.2

13.9

15.4

4.8

4.1

33.4

28.7

1.4

1.0

3,040

3,135

24.3

26.7

24.8

27.9

9.7

8.6

2.3

1.9

25.5

23.6

1.2

1.0

22,696

29,145

8.1

6.6

14.1

14.2

11.2

11.1

3.4

2.7

34.1

26.9

0.6

0.4

1,041

939

91.8

91.9

8.5

7.4

9.2

10.6

1.6

1.4

18.1

14.0

5.1

5.7

1,388

1,624

1,855

14.2

15.6

6.6

9.1

11.2

8.1

2.8

2.2

27.9

29.2

1.0

0.8

3,386

5,243

5,767

14.6

14.6

11.8

12.6

9.9

9.2

1.0

0.4

17.9

16.4

1.1

1.0

5,053

1,482

1,682

15.5

15.5

95.0

104.0

23.1

21.1

4.1

3.2

18.6

17.0

3.2

2.7

903

953

18,485

6,148

7,386

18.6

19.6

36.0

46.1

25.1

19.6

5.9

4.7

25.8

26.8

3.2

2.6

374

399

29,993

8,031

9,130

23.4

22.4

18.4

20.0

20.3

18.7

3.4

2.9

17.8

16.6

3.6

3.1

1,676

28,448

10,696

11,662

20.7

21.0

83.7

92.9

20.0

18.0

4.1

3.5

22.4

21.0

3.0

2.6

103

830

1,280

1,536

17.8

17.8

9.2

11.3

11.2

9.1

0.8

0.8

7.7

8.5

1.3

1.1

2,094

17,733

2,651

2,993

31.7

31.2

76.0

82.4

27.6

25.4

8.0

7.1

20.1

26.3

5.9

5.1

685

837

15.2

15.2

7.4

8.9

9.4

7.8

1.4

1.2

16.4

17.0

1.1

0.9

2,850

3,474

20.7

20.7

29.2

36.6

14.8

11.8

3.5

2.8

26.1

26.1

2.1

1.7

8,426

10,082

19.7

20.0

27.4

32.4

21.4

18.1

5.2

4.2

26.0

24.7

3.2

2.6

1,667

1,835

13.9

13.9

11.4

13.3

9.6

8.2

0.6

0.6

6.6

7.3

0.9

0.8

3,784

2,472

Market Outlook
September 06, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Pharmaceuticals
Ranbaxy*

Neutral

554

23,372

12,046

11,980

18.0

15.8

35.7

29.8

15.5

18.6

6.0

4.8

39.1

28.9

2.0

2.0

Sun Pharma

Neutral

651

67,359

9,752

12,134

41.6

41.6

26.0

28.2

25.1

23.1

4.7

4.0

20.3

18.8

6.3

4.9

CESC

Accumulate

299

342

3,731

5,218

5,644

24.2

23.8

44.6

47.6

6.7

6.3

0.7

0.6

11.0

10.6

1.0

1.1

GIPCL

Accumulate

NTPC

Neutral

Power
69

77

1,050

1,557

1,573

29.3

28.7

10.8

11.0

6.4

6.3

0.7

0.6

10.8

10.2

1.2

1.0

169

138,936

74,111

85,789

23.2

23.6

12.4

14.0

13.6

12.0

1.7

1.6

13.0

13.5

2.6

2.4

Real Estate
Anant Raj

Buy

DLF

Neutral

43

78

1,275

657

875

52.0

56.1

8.4

12.7

5.1

3.4

0.3

0.3

6.3

8.9

3.2

2.4

193

32,773

9,878

12,033

44.7

46.1

9.6

13.4

20.1

14.4

1.3

1.2

6.4

8.7

5.9

HDIL

4.8

Buy

70

115

2,935

2,441

3,344

55.1

48.2

22.7

26.6

3.1

2.6

0.3

0.2

8.8

9.4

3.1

MLIFE

2.3

Buy

343

396

1,400

813

901

26.2

26.6

32.0

37.1

10.7

9.3

1.1

1.0

10.4

11.0

2.1

1.8

Bharti Airtel

Neutral

258

97,919

79,542

87,535

30.9

32.2

10.3

15.0

25.1

17.2

1.8

1.7

7.2

9.6

1.9

1.6

Idea Cellular

Neutral

77

25,606

22,988

25,333

26.4

26.9

3.5

4.9

22.3

15.8

1.8

1.6

8.1

10.2

1.5

1.3

Rcom

Neutral

49

10,186

21,553

22,494

31.0

30.7

3.5

4.5

14.2

11.1

0.3

0.3

1.9

2.4

2.0

1.8

Abbott India

Neutral

1,595

3,390

1,602

1,833

10.4

11.8

54.7

71.7

29.2

22.2

5.5

4.7

20.0

22.7

1.9

1.6

Bajaj Electricals

Buy

173

234

1,721

3,569

4,172

8.1

8.8

16.3

21.3

10.6

8.1

2.2

1.8

21.7

24.6

0.5

0.4

Cera Sanitaryware

Neutral

345

436

396

470

16.7

16.5

28.0

33.2

12.3

10.4

2.5

2.1

23.8

23.1

1.2

1.0

Cravatex

Buy

419

785

108

302

364

5.7

6.0

49.0

71.0

8.5

5.9

2.5

1.8

29.8

30.7

0.5

0.4

CRISIL

Neutral

924

6,480

982

1,136

34.3

34.3

34.3

40.0

26.9

23.1

12.2

9.7

50.9

46.9

6.2

5.2

Finolex Cables

Buy

36

61

555

2,334

2,687

8.8

9.3

7.6

10.2

4.8

3.6

0.6

0.5

13.7

16.1

0.2

0.1

Force Motors

Buy

433

591

564

2,214

2,765

4.5

5.4

39.5

73.9

11.0

5.9

0.5

0.5

4.4

7.6

0.1

0.1

Goodyear India

Neutral

326

752

1,543

1,654

6.5

7.3

24.8

31.1

13.1

10.5

2.1

1.9

17.1

19.0

0.3

0.2

Graphite India

Buy

78

113

1,529

2,158

2,406

18.1

18.9

12.4

14.0

6.3

5.6

0.8

0.8

14.0

14.3

0.8

0.7

Greenply Industries

Buy

185

309

447

1,925

2,235

10.6

10.9

29.6

44.1

6.3

4.2

1.0

0.8

16.8

21.0

0.5

0.4

HEG

#N/A

201

Hitachi

Accumulate

116

130

267

868

977

3.9

6.6

2.7

10.9

42.4

10.7

1.5

1.4

3.7

13.6

0.4

0.3

Honeywell Automation

Buy

2,403

2,842

2,124

1,847

2,162

4.3

7.3

61.0

120.0

39.4

20.0

3.1

2.7

9.3

16.3

1.1

0.9

INEOS ABS India

Buy

602

744

1,059

1,056

1,081

8.1

10.6

33.8

46.5

17.8

12.9

2.5

2.1

14.7

17.5

1.0

0.9

ITD Cementation

Neutral

223

257

1,451

1,669

12.3

12.4

32.4

41.5

6.9

5.4

0.6

0.6

9.4

10.9

0.6

0.6

Jyothy Laboratories

Neutral

150

2,417

1,248

1,468

9.8

10.4

5.9

7.2

25.3

20.9

3.6

3.3

15.0

16.6

2.3

1.9

MCX

Buy

1,173

1,440

5,982

553

624

65.3

66.3

62.5

72.0

18.8

16.3

5.2

4.5

27.5

27.4

7.7

6.4

Telecom

zOthers

www.angelbroking.com

802

Market Outlook
September 06, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

10,039

12,884

4,257

11,804

12,727

10.4

10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3

7.8

7.0

3,006

3,353

887

1,108

18.3

18.6

95.0

120.9

31.7

24.9

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

FY14E

FY13E

P/BV(x)

FY14E

FY13E

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

1.5

1.2

21.3

19.4

0.5

0.4

16.5

13.4

57.4

59.5

3.8

3.1

zOthers
MRF

Buy

Page Industries

Neutral

Relaxo Footwears

Accumulate

628

684

754

1,019

1,208

12.3

13.0

51.0

68.4

12.3

9.2

3.3

2.4

30.3

30.2

0.9

0.8

Sintex Industries

Buy

55

79

1,512

4,751

5,189

16.3

16.6

13.6

15.8

4.1

3.5

0.5

0.5

12.9

13.2

0.7

0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

285

392

267

1,042

1,173

12.4

12.5

66.3

78.5

4.3

3.6

0.8

0.7

21.1

20.8

0.5

0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide

Buy

18

38

526

7,279

8,290

20.5

20.5

13.4

16.3

1.3

1.1

0.2

0.1

12.3

13.1

0.6

0.6

SpiceJet

Buy

29

43

1,393

5,720

6,599

5.3

6.8

3.6

5.4

8.0

5.4

11.5

3.7

0.4

0.3

TAJ GVK

Buy

65

108

408

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

8.2

7.1

1.1

1.0

13.9

14.4

1.7

1.4

Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

291

424

449

787

837

16.2

17.5

58.5

66.9

5.0

4.4

0.7

0.6

14.9

15.1

0.2

0.1

TVS Srichakra

Accumulate

319

335

244

1,476

1,643

7.1

8.2

24.7

42.8

12.9

7.5

1.6

1.3

16.6

24.8

0.4

0.3

United Spirits

Neutral

1,014

13,265

10,289

11,421

13.5

14.3

31.0

42.9

32.7

23.6

2.6

2.3

8.1

10.3

2.0

1.8

Vesuvius India

Neutral

346

702

560

611

16.1

17.0

24.7

28.8

14.0

12.0

2.1

1.8

15.8

16.2

1.2

1.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on September 05, 2012

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
September 06, 2012

www.angelbroking.com

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