Reliance Industries
BSE Sensex 17,033 S&P CNX 5,165
CMP: INR719
TP: INR760
Neutral
Niko Resources, the E&P JV partner of Reliance Industries, in its 'Reserves and Contingent Resources Update' has announced (1) reduction in KG-D6 2P gas reserves by 80% to 1.9tcf, and (2) its production guidance for next 7 years indicates decline in D1D3/MA production and increase in new gas production from D6 satellites fields and NEC-25 block, resulting in gross production of 44mmscmd by FY19 (v/s current rate of 32mmscmd). Niko stated that the reduced reserve estimates only pertain to the currently producing D1D3/MA fields and does not include satellite field reserves. Further, it stated that the additional capex will be contingent on gas price revision and government approval for the development plan.
RIL's 1P reserve higher than Niko's new 2P reserve: RIL does not give 2P reserve numbers and only gives out 1P reserve number in its annual report. Post the downgrade in FY12, RIL's 1P gas reserves were 104bcm (3.7tcf, net share number). It should be noted that RIL's reserve numbers also include its share in PMT (RIL stake at 30%). Even after adjusting PMT reserves (estimated), RIL's 1P reserve number will still be higher than Niko's 2P reserve number of 1.9tcf. Niko states that additional investments contingent on gas price revision: Niko stated that the new reserve estimates factor pertain only to the current producing fields - D1D3/MA and additional investment decisions on development plans (satellite and NEC) are contingent upon natural gas pricing (revision scheduled in March 2014). Further, it stated that the reserve/production estimates by Ryder Scott (independent reserve consultant) does not assume any additional drilling in D1D3/MA fields, as Ryder Scott believes that no new wells will be required to recover the revised 2P reserves in D1D3/MA fields in the KG-D6 block. Key things to watch on RIL: (1) Resolution of cost recovery issues with the government, (2) DGH approvals for E&P program and update on KG-D6 ramp-up, (3) Clarity on 7-year income tax holiday for KG-D6 gas (we model tax holiday), (4) Margin trend in refining and petchem, (5) Developments on USD12b capex plan, and (6) Update on BWA and retail foray.
Foreign, 21.7
Promoter 44.9
Cutting SOTP; Maintain Neutral: We have cut our plateau production assumption from 60mmscmd in FY18 to 40mmscmd and cut our overall recovery from 10 tcf to ~7tcf. However, our FY13 and FY14 estimates remain unchanged. Our revised SOTPbased target price is INR760 (earlier INR785) as we cut our KG-D6 value to INR51/ share from earlier INR74/share and NEC-25 to INR13/share (earlier INR15/share). We maintain Neutral due to concerns of (1) RoE slipping to sub-12% levels, (2) falling KG-D6 volumes, and (3) increased share (75%) of cyclical refining and petchem businesses. The stock trades at 11.3x FY13E adjusted EPS of INR63.4 and 7.4x FY13E EV/EBITDA. Harshad Borawake (HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432 Deepak Dult (Deepak.Dult@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5445
1
Reliance Industries
Source: Company/MOSL
21 June 2012
Reliance Industries
Niko had reduced its India gas reserves from 13tcf in FY10 to 9.9 tcf in FY11 (gross for JV)
As at March 31, 2011 Natural Gas Gross* (mmcf) Net* (mmcf) 340,203 53,534 281,859 675,596 314,699 990,295 307,959 33,164 171,371 512,494 222,038 734,532 As at March 31, 2010 Natural Gas Gross* (mmcf) Net* (mmcf) 568,289 16 374,611 942,916 364,677 1,307,593 510,152 13 195,607 705,772 158,831 864,603
Reserves Category Proved Developed Producing Developed Non-Producing Undeveloped Total proved Probable Total proved plus probable
Net number factor in the royalty impact/Profit Petroleum * Represents Niko 10% stake in KG-D6
Reliance Industries
1P reserves decline due to reservoir reassessment (apart from production and third-party transfer)
Proved Reserves FY10 FY11 FY12 As a % Restated open. for 90% bal. stake As a % open. bal. Remarks
Crude Oil (mmt) Opening Balance Transfer of interest to BP Addition/(deletion) Production Closing Balance Natural Gas (bcm) Opening Balance Transfer of interest to BP Addition/(deletion) Production Closing Balance
(3.92)
47.2
30% stake sale to BP Deletion led by reassessment of the reservoir Led by production during the year Oil reserve life (based on 1P) has declined from 6 years to 3 years
(18.63)
10.0
30% stake sale to BP Deletion led by reassessment of the reservoir Led by production during the year Gas reserve life (based on 1P) has declined from 9 years to 8 years
Crude Oil (mmt) Opening Balance 4.97 8.62 Transfer of interest to BP Addition/(deletion) 4.69 0.42 Production (1.04) (1.38) Closing Balance 8.62 7.66 Natural Gas (bcm) Opening Balance 133.89 130.82 Transfer of interest to BP Addition/(deletion) 11.54 (3.84) Production (14.61) (19.62) Closing Balance 130.82 107.36 *RIL sold 30% stake in 21 E&P blocks to BP 21 June 2012
7.66 (1.65) (2.66) (0.93) 2.42 107.36 (30.54) (38.84) (12.82) 25.16
(3.99)
52.1
30% stake sale to BP Deletion led by reassessment of the reservoir Led by production during the year
(58.25)
54.3
30% stake sale to BP Deletion led by reassessment of the reservoir Led by production during the year Source: Company/MOSL 4
Reliance Industries
21 June 2012
Reliance Industries
21 June 2012
Reliance Industries
1 1 1
34 31 40
11 10 14
PMT Investment in Shale Gas Investments RGTIL, RIIL fuel Retailing BWA SEZ Reliance Retail Less: Net Debt Total Base Value
2 1 3 0 1 1 1 1 -2 42
33 17 46 8 11 16 11 21 -33 760
21 June 2012
Reliance Industries
(INR Billion)
2013E 3,407 3.3 310 9.1 101 29 66 245 59 24.1 186 186 -7.0 8.3 28.0 2014E 2,997 -12.1 321 10.7 95 29 76 273 67 24.6 206 206 10.3 9.0 22.0
Balance Sheet
Y/E March Share Cap. (incl sh. Susp.) Reserves Net Worth Total Loans Deferred Tax Capital Employed Gross Fixed Assets Less: Depreciation Net Fixed Assets Capital WIP Investments Curr. Assets, L & Adv. Inventory Debtors Cash & Bank Balance Loans&Adv.and Other CA Current Liab. & Prov. Liabilities Provisions Net Current Assets Application of Funds E: MOSL Estimates 2009 31 1232 1,264 739 97 2,100 1496 493 1,003 690 216 2010 33 1339 1,372 625 109 2,106 2159 626 1,533 121 232 2011 33 1483 1,515 674 116 2,305 2213 785 1,427 128 377 2012 33 1628 1,661 684 121 2,466 2055 918 1,137 78 540
(INR Billion)
2013E 32 1765 1,798 682 126 2,606 2106 1019 1,088 112 580 2014E 32 1939 1,971 679 132 2,782 2166 1114 1,053 169 620
21 June 2012
Reliance Industries
15.7 12.5
13.4 11.3
14.8 12.9
13.0 12.1
11.0 11.0
11.1 11.3
14 1.1 0.4
15 1.1 0.3
21 1.1 0.2
20 1.5 0.0
20 1.6 0.0
21 1.4 -0.1
(INR Billion)
2013E 245 101 -37 -54 -93 0 163 -86 -40 66 -60 -20 -32 -29 -81 21 396 417 2014E 273 95 -47 -62 20 0 279 -116 -40 76 -80 0 -31 -32 -64 135 417 552 9
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