Modelling and Analyzing the Watershed Dynamics using Cellular Automata (CA) Markov Model A Geoinformation Based Approach

Mid-Semester Seminar
15-10- 2009 Prepared by

SANTOSH BORATE
08WM6002

Under the guidance of

DR. M. D. BEHERA
SCHOOL OF WATER RESORCES INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY KHARAGPUR

CONTENTS
Introduction Review of Literature

Aim and Objectives

Study Area Methodology

Model Description
- Markov Chain Analysis - Cellular Automata(CA)

- Cellular automata-MCA in IDRISI- Andes

Work Done Work to be done

Conclusion

Introduction
Definition Need of Watershed Modelling Image classification Watershed, Land Use/ Land Cover In order to maintain equilibrium between surrounding environment and climate Prerequisite for Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) detection
Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology

Change detection

Understand relationships & interactions with human & natural phenomena to better management
Remote sensing & GIS tools provides synoptic coverage & repeatability thus is cost effective

Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

Use of advanced spatial technology tools

Review of Literature
Research Papers
Anuj Kumar Singh (2003) conducted study of LULCC with Cellular Automata(CA) which has advantage, that it incorporate the spatial component. Suggest that Cellular Automata(CA) Model is highly depend on Spatial variables taken in to consideration . More variables can increase the accuracy of the model. Daniel G. Brown(2004) Introduced the different type of models for LULCC Modeling in relation to the purpose of the model, avaibility of data , drivers responsible for LULCC. Antonius B. Wijanarto(2006) Described Markov Change Detection is one application of change detection that can be used to predict future changes based on the rates of past change. The method is based on probability that a given piece of land will change from one mutually exclusive state to another. These probabilities are generated from past changes and then applied to predict future change. Thomas HOUET, Laurence HUBERT-MOY(2006) Cellular automata (CA), that provide a powerful tool for the dynamic modeling of land use changes, is a common method to take spatial interactions into account. They have been implemented in land use models that are able to simulate multiple land use types.

Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

Review of Literature continue

Soe W. Myint and Le Wang(2006) This study demonstrates the integration of Markov chain analysis and Cellular Automata (CA) model to predict the Land Use Land Cover Change of Norman in 2000 using multicriteria decision making approach. This study used the post-classification change detection approach to identify the land use land cover change in Norman, Oklahoma, between September 1979 and July 1989 using Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Map (TM) images. Huiping Liu (2008) Research shows that Land use/land cover change detection using multi-temporal images by means of remote sensing and ration research of model of urban expansion by GIS are good means of research of urban expansion. BOOKS 1. Introduction to probability. - Charles M. Grinstead, J. Laurie Snell 2. Probability and statistics for Engineers and Scientists. - Ronald E. Walpole 3. Markov Chains Gibbs Fields, Monte Carlo Simulation and Queues. - J.E. Marrsden 4. Introduction to Geographic Information System(GIS). -Kang-tsung Chang

Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

Aim and Objectives

AIM
To Model and Analyze the Watershed Dynamics using Cellular Automata (CA) -Markov Model and predict the change for next 10 years. Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

OBJECTIVES
To generate land use / land cover database with uniform classification scheme for 1972, 1990, 1999 and 2004 using satellite data To create database on demographic, socioeconomic, Infrastructure parameters To derive the Transition Area matrix and suitability images based on classification Analysis of indicators and drivers and their impact on watershed dynamics Projecting future watershed dynamics scenarios using CA-Markov Model

STUDY AREA

River basin map of India Introduction

Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area

Drainage Area = 195 sq.km latitude- 20 29 33.39 to 20 40 21.09 N Longitude- 85 44 59.33 to 85 54 16.62 E Growing Industrial Area

Mahanadi River Basin

Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

Parameters to be considered
A) Biophysical Parameters: 1. 2. 3. 4. Altitude Slope Soil Type LU/LC classes a) Wetlands b) Forest c) Shrubs d) Agriculture e) Urban Area 5. Extreme Events a) Flood b) Forest Fire 6. Drainage Network 7. Meteorological a) Rainfall b) Runoff B) Socio-economic Parameters 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Urban Sprawl Population Density Road Network Socioeconomic Environment Policies Residential development Industrial Structure GDPA Public Sector Policies Literacy Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

Acquired Satellite Data

Satellite data for time period 1972 procured from GLCF site
Landsat MSS Resolution PATH ROW 79m 150 46

Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

Satellite data for time period 1990 procured from GLCF site
Landsat TM Resolution PATH ROW 30m 140 46

Satellite data for time period 1999 procured from GLCF site
Landsat ETM+ PATH ROW 140 46

Resolution

30m

Satellite data for time period 2004 procured from GLCF site
Landsat TM Resolution PATH ROW 30m 140 46

GLCF Global Land Cover Facility

Data Collection
Introduction 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Population Density Land Use Land Cover Soil Map Rainfall Road Network Urban Sprawl GDPA Literacy Residential development
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

METHODOLOGY

METHODOLOGY
Data download and Layer stack
Toposheet 1945 MSS 1972 TM 1990 ETM+ 1999 TM 2004

Georeferencing and Reprojection

Area extraction Multitemporal image Classification Preparing Ancillary Data Road network Industrial Structure

Classification of the satellite data

Drainage Network Soil Type Slope Altitude Population Density

Urban Sprawl

Statistics

Calculation of LU/LC area statistics for different classes (for different periods) Obtain Transition Area Matrix (TAM) by Markov Chain Analysis and Suitability Images by MCE Run CA- Markov model in IDRISI- Andes by giving -1) Basis land Cover Image , 2) TAM and 3) Suitability Image as inputs Analysis of drivers responsible for watershed change Predict future watershed dynamics for coming 10 years from the obtained trend

TAM and Suitability Images Simulation Analysis Prediction

CA-Markov Model Description

IDRISI Software Markov Chain Analysis Cellular Automata (CA) CA-Markov Model in IDRISI Andes Input files- 1) Basis land Cover Image , 2) Transition Area Matrix 3) Suitability Image from MCE
Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

Work Done
Review of Literature a) Research papers b) Books Formulation of Methodology Analysis of parameters which to be consider Acquisition, Georeferencing, Reprojection of Remote Sensing Data Collection of data like DEM data, road network, drainage network, LULCC, Population, Rainfall etc. Extraction of Study Area. Unsupervised Classification of reprojected images Introduction with Geoinfomatics software's ERDAS IMAGINE 9.1, ArcGIS 9.1 , IDRISI Andes.
Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

Work to be done
Prepare the spatial layers of socio-economic parameters considered. Obtain Transition Area Matrix by Markov Chain Analysis and Suitability Images by MCE Run CA- Markov model in IDRISI- Andes Analysis of drivers responsible for land use land cover change in watershed Predict the watershed dynamics for next future 10 years
Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work done

Work to be Done
Acknowledgement

Acknowledgement
Prof. S.N Panda gave the guidance on Modelling of watershed. Prof. C Chatterjee guided in selection of watershed Prof. M.D. Behera guided in developing overall methodology and gave ancillary data. Christina Connolly who gave the trial version of IDRISI Software from Clark Lab. SAL (Spatial Analytical Lab) of CORAL Department and JRF and SRF in Lab. GLCF (Global Land Cover Facility) RS data download. SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission )- DEM data download. NRSC (National Remote Sensing Centre)- LULC data
Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work done Work to be done Acknowledgement

17

Markov Chain Analysis

Subdivide area into a number of cells On the basis of observed data between time periods, MCA computes the probability that a cell will change from one land use type (state) to another within a specified period of time. The probability of moving from one state to another state is called a transition probability. Let set of states, S = { S1,S2, ., Sr }.
Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done

where P = Markov transition probability matrix P i, j = the land type of the first and second time period Pij = the probability from land type i to land type j

Work to be done Acknowledgement

Markov Chain Analysis

Example: Forest in 2000 is change into two major classes in 2001, paddy field and residential; 33 % of forest is changing to residential, while 20 % changing to paddy field.
Forest Residential Paddy 2000 F R F .47 .33 R PRF PRR P PPF PPR P .20 PRP PPP 2001 Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done

P=

transition probability matrix

Work to be done Acknowledgement

Markov Chain Analysis

Introduction

Transition Area Matrix: is produced by multiplication of each column in Transition Probability Matrix (P) by no. of pixels of corresponding class in later image F R P F 94 66 40 A= R ARF ARR ARP P APF APR APP Disadvantages: Markov analysis does not account the causes of land use change. An even more serious problem of Markov analysis is that it is insensitive to space: it provides no sense of geography. Although the transition probabilities may be accurate for a particular class as a whole, there is no spatial element to the modeling process. Using cellular automata adds a spatial dimension to the model.

Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

Cellular Automata (CA) Model

Introduction

Spatial component is incorporated Powerful tool for Dynamic modelling Each row represents a single time step of the automatons evolution. St+1 = f (St,N,T) where St+1 = State at time t+1 St = State at time t N = Neighbourhood T = Transition Rule

Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

Cellular Automata (CA) Model Transition Rules

Heart of Cellular Automata Each cells evolution is affected by its own state and the state of its immediate neighbours to the left and right. Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology

Fig. Von Neumanns Neighbor and Moores Neighbor Suitability Maps: Ex- To check the suitability of pixel for Settlement or Agriculture It depends on various Factors : biophysical and Proximity Factor like altitude, rainfall, distance from road etc Sc = Su + N(1)

Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

Su = (Wi * fi) (2) Wi

Cellular Automata (CA) Model

Classes Biophysical Factors Rainfall Slope Altitude Classes Proximate Factors Distance From Road Distance From City Distance From Industry Settlement (Weights) Agriculture (Weights) Introduction
Review of Literature

4 8 5 Settlement (Weights)

8 2 1 Agriculture (Weights)

Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

10 5 3

6 7 3

Table.1. Allotment of Weights for Settlement and agricultural class If SSet SAg then state = Settlement
If SSet SAg then state = Agriculture

Cellular Automata(CA) MCA in IDRISI -Andes

Introduction

Combines cellular automata and the Markov change land cover prediction. Adds knowledge of the likely spatial distribution of transitions to Markov change analysis. The CA process creates a suitability map for each class based on the factors (Biophysical and Proximate) and ensuring that landuse change occurs in proximity to existing like landuse classes, and not in a wholly random manner. In each iteration of the simulation each class will normally gain land from one or more of the other classes or it may lose some to one or more of the other classes.

Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

Conclusion
Morkov Model does not incorporate the spatial component in modelling Land Use and Land Cover prediction Integration of Markov chain analysis and Cellular Automata (CA) model adds knowledge of the likely spatial distribution of transitions to Markov change analysis. Integration of Markov chain analysis and Cellular Automata (CA) model to predict the Land Use Land Cover Change is reasonably accurate , since it produces overall accuracy above the 85% when comparing predicted map to the original satellite image
Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

First (earlier) land cover image Second (Last) land cover image Prefix for output Conditional Probability Image No. of time period between first and last land cover image No. of time period to project forward from second image

Markov Spacelessness
Introduction
Review of Literature
Aim and Objectives Study Area Methodology Model description Work Done Work to be done Acknowledgement

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Basic Land Cover image Markov Area Transition File Transition Suitability Image Collection Out Put Land Cover Projection No. of Cellular Automata iterations

1972

1990

1999

2004

Forest Agriculture Settlement

Wetland Water Body