MEETING ON SOCIAL POLICY FOR CHILDRENS WELL-BEING

CK Farabi Hotel, Ankara

6 September 2012 13:45-14:15

Istvn Gyrgy Tth* (Trki, Budapest, www.tarki.hu)

Child well-being indicators for Turkey: what policy priorities would international comparisons suggest?

* With contributions/articles by Andrs Gbos and thanks are also due to Annamria Gti (both at Trki, Budapest)

Outline
- Introducing a provisional policy marker report card for Turkey - EU-Turkey comparisons: indicators for material and non-material dimensions of child well being - A summary report card for Turkey - Conclusions

Starting point
Turkey policy performances shall also have to be evaluated in terms of child outcome indicators Steps taken in this presentation: 1. putting Turkey into the monitoring framework as suggested to monitor the progress in member states 2. evaluate relative performances 3. formulate policy related lessons to help Gov of Turkey in setting policy targets What is not taken here: 1. We do not claim we know enough for any policy recommendations 2. We do not claim anyone outside Turkey can make policy suggestions without thorough discussions with Turkish experts

Income poverty, material deprivation and joblessness combined: EU 2020 poverty reduction target categories calculated on Turkey data
(in % of all children, total population figures in brackets, in 2006)

Material deprivation Income poverty 24.6 (17.8) 36.5 (38.8)

1.9 (1.6)

0.6 (0.5)

9.1 (6.6)
1.4 (2.8)

2.8 (4.2)

Low work intensity

Income:36.2 (26.5) Material deprivation:73.0 (67.4) Low WI:13.9 (14.1) Total (at least one risk): 77.0 (72.4.) Total (all combined):9.1 (6.6.)

Source: Eurostat figures, own calculations

A1.1. At risk of poverty rate after social transfers (%)

40 35

A1.2. Relative median at risk of poverty gap (%)

50,0 45,0 40,0

30
35,0

25 2006 20 2007 2008 15 2009

30,0 2006 25,0 20,0 15,0 2007 2008 2009

10
10,0

5,0 0,0 NL FR C Y

AT

DE

C Y

BE

SE

EE

ES

EE

SE

BG

AT

NL

FR

GR

MT

GR

DE

BE

C Z

PT

ES

0 DK SI

PL

PL

LT

LT

HU

BG

LU

UK

S K

LV

IE

IE

UK

DK

MT

SK

C Z

RO

HU

PT

LU

LV

IT

IT

TR2006

E U-27

EU-27

R O

Findings: - Over one third of Turkish children suffer in relative poverty (as defined in EU) - At risk of poverty rate slightly over the Romanian figure - Child poverty exceeds the overall poverty rates for the population by 30%* - There are huge regional disparities* Questions: To what extent it is a developmental phenomenon and to what extent it is a policy failure? Further studies would be needed to clarify on this. - Why no more up-to date figures on Eurostat? Definition: percentage of children (<18 years old) below 60% of the national equivalised median income
*UNICEF, Ankara University Report on Public Policy and Expenditure Analysis: Child Poverty and Fiscal Space Source: Eurostat, EU-SILC

Findings: - Poor childrens income falls short of the relative poverty threshold by almost 40 percent - Relative gap compares to RO and BG levels - (Note: relative gap is a figure with a practical ceiling, the Turkish figure IS approaching that.) Questions: - What type of calibration of social assistance schemes could help closing this gap? - Why no more up-to date figures on Eurostat? Definition: the difference between the median equivalised disposable income of people below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold and the at-risk-of-poverty threshold, expressed as a % of the at-risk-of-poverty threshold (cut-off point: 60 % of national median equivalised disposable income)

A2.1. Material deprivation rate (%)

90,0 80,0

A2.2. Severe material deprivation rate (%)

80,0

70,0

70,0

60,0

60,0

50,0
50,0 2006 2007 40,0 30,0 2008 2009

TR 2006

FI

SI

FI

2006 40,0 2007 2008 30,0 2009

20,0 10,0

20,0

10,0

AT

DE

AT

S E

E S

BE

CY

E E

0,0 DK LU

C Y

GR

DE

BE

SE

ES

EE

NL

FR

PL

GR

FR

NL

MT

BG

PL

CZ

PT

LT

0,0 LU
TR 2006

MT

HU

HU

RO

E U27

R O

BG

C Z

UK

PT

S K

LT

IE

LV

IE

DK

UK

S K

LV

IT

IT

Findings: - Both material deprivation and severe material deprivation of the Turkish children is extremely high, should be decreased. - (Note: this clearly follows at least partly from level of economic development. However, more equitable pro-poor economic development strategy could help decrease deprivation rate.) Question: - Why no more up-to date figures on Eurostat? Definitions: Material deprivation rate: Proportion of children in households lacking at least 3 items in the list (e.g.: The household could not afford a meal with meat, chicken or fish every second day, to keep the home adequately heated etc.) Severe material deprivation rate: Proportion of children in households lacking at least 4 items in the same list
Source: EUROSTAT, EU-SILC

TR2006

E U27

SI

FI

FI

S I

A3.1. Housing cost overburden rate (%)

30
80

A3.2. Housing overcrowding rate (%)

70

25
60

20

50 2006

2006 15 2007 2008 10 2009

40

2007 2008

30

2009

20

10

DE

AT

CY

BE

ES

SE

NL

EU-27

EE

FR

PL

GR

MT

BG

HU

DK

UK

AT

GR

FR

BG

UK

MT

HU

E U-27

RO

Source: EUROSTAT, EU-SILC

Finding: - Indicators unavailable for Turkey Suggestion: -To calculate on the basis of SILC Definitions: Housing cost overburden rate: % of children living in households where the total housing costs (net of housing allowances) represent more than 40% of disposable income (net of housing allowances). Overcrowding rate: % of children living in a household without a minimum number of rooms equal to: one room for the household one room per couple in the household one room for each single person aged 18 or more one room per pair of single people of the same gender between 12 - 17 years of age one room for each single person between 12 - 17 years of age and not included in the previous category one room per pair of children under 12 years of age.

DK

DE

BE

C Z

LU

TR

C Y

E E

S E

NL

PL

LV

S K

PT

E S

IE

LT

IT

S I

FI

A4.1. Share of children in jobless households (%)

20,00 18,00 16,00 14,00 12,00 2006 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 0,00 S I DK 2007 2008 2009

A4.3. Child care (%)

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 DK SE NL FR ES PT UK LU BE SI EU-2 7 FI EE IT CY IE DE LV GR LT AT BG MT HU RO CZ PL SK TR2 0 07 0

AT E S

DE RO

CY FI

S E TR2011

IT E E

MT E U-27

LT BG

BE IE

FR S K

PT NL

LU E L

CZ LV

PL

HU UK

Finding: - Share of children in jobless households is shown to be surprisingly low Question: - What explains this, given the relatively low activity rates in the country?
Definition: The share of children living in households n which none of the members has been in paid work during the last four weeks. Source: EUROSTAT, EU-LFS

Finding: - SILC data shows non-existence of child care facilities for children below 2 years of age

Question: - While this is inconsistent with other data from Turkey (see .. ), the coverage IS low. Important policy priority would be to increase service availability.

Definition: % of children 02 years not in formal childcare Source: Eurostat, EU-SILC 2009 (2007 for Turkey, referring to 2006)

RO

TR

CZ

PT

SK

LU

LV

LT

IE

IT

FI

SI

B1.1. Low reading literacy performance of children aged 15 (%)

60

B1.2. Low reading literacy performance of children aged 10 (%)

45 40

50
35

40

30 25

30 2006 20 2009
20 15 10 5

10

0
AT RO BG FI EE NL BE UK DE CY TR M T 20 09 ES F EU R -a v IT EL SK CZ LV PT PL DK IE SE HU LT LU SI

BE (Fr )

BE (Fl)

DE

AT

EU-av

MT

GR

CY

SE

ES

CZ

FR

EE

0 NL

Eng

DK

BG

HU

RO

Findings: -Relatively low share of Turkish children in the lowest competence category -This is, however, compensated by much larger shares in the next (not good but less bad) categories

Finding: - Indicator (similarly to a number of EU member states) is unavailable for Turkey

Suggestion: - In addition: almost a third of overall educational achievement variation is due to family background (PISA 2006) - Enter PIRLS. The 10 years performance is a good and relatively early indicator of school performance. Definition: share of 10-year-old pupils at or below the Low International Benchmark in reading Source: IEA, PIRLS 2006

Definition: share of 15-year-old pupils who are at level 1 or below on the PISA combined reading literacy scale. Source: OECD, PISA 2006, 2009

B1.3. Early-school-leavers (%)

45 40

B1.4. Children in pre-primary education (%)

100 90

35

80

30

70

25

60

2006 2007
50 2 0 07 40 2 0 08

20

2008 2009

15

30

10
20

5
10

AT

DE

CY

SE

BE

NL

PL

EE

BG

GR

CZ

FR

ES

0 LT LU S K S I

PT

MT

HU

LV

DK

UK

IE

RO

IT

TR2011

E U-27

FI

Findings: - Share of those leaving schools early IS overly high (from other sources it is known: mostly girls finish studies too early) - Enrolment-age profiles for girls and boys drastically deviate from each other from age 11 onwards (for girls: a serious Sharp decline from over 80% to around 30%, (See Expanding opportunities paper by WB, 2012) Questions: What policy options to reduce these rates? - (supply (service delivery) or demand (CCT) side interventions seem more promising?

Finding: - Enrolment in pre-primary schools IS extremely low* Questions: - Supply or demand reasons are behind? - What policy options to improve enrolment rates?

Definition: Share of children aged 4 in pre-primary education (%)

Source: EUROSTAT, EU-SILC Definition. Numerator: persons aged 1824 (i) with the highest *Note: OECD 2011 shows even much lower level of education ISCED 0, 1, 2 or 3c; (ii) and who declared that they had not received any education or training in the four weeks enrolment (see TURA) preceding the survey. Denominator: consists of the total population of the same age group. Source: EUROSTAT, EU-LFS

T R FR 2 0 10

C EU Z -2 7

CY

SK

ES

EE

SE

LU

LT

LV

IT

IE

FI

SI

TR

PL

PT

LT

SK

LU

LV

IE

IT

SI

FI

Turkish children start going to school too late

Participation rates in pre-primary and primary education (ISCED0 and ISCED1)

ISCED0

ISCED1

Source: EUROSTAT, Key data on education 2011 EUROSTAT, UOE, (date extracted 2011)

and (despite spectacular developments* in the last decade), they finish going to school too early .
Participation rates of 15-19 year old students in lower secondary to tertiary education

ISCED2

ISCED3

ISCED4

ISCED5-6

Source: EUROSTAT, Key data on education 2011 EUROSTAT, UOE, (date extracted 2011) *Especially as regards enrolment rates of the 14-16 year olds and the very fast expansion of higher education

 and, whats more, many of them face serious educational deprivation

B1.5. Educational deprivation (%)
45

Finding: - Educational deprivation (home learning infrastructure of children) is at an extremely high rate Questions: - To what extent is it a development problem? - Any high regional variance in it? - Can it be reduced via (for example) via free school books programs?
AT BE DE CY FR NL CZ PT LT TR T 20 09 EE SE EU -A V ES SK HU IE GR LU BG RO PL IT DK UK LV FI SI M

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

Definition: % of students who report having less than 5 out of 7 educational items in their homes. Items: quiet place to study, desk, computer, educational software, internet connection, textbook, dictionary. Recommendation: further work on item selection and regular monitoring using EU-SILC is strongly recommended. Source: OECD, PISA 2006, 2009

B2.1. Infant mortality rate

1 6 ,0

B2.2. Vaccination coverage in children DTP3, MCV, PoL3 (%)

10 0 90 80

1 4 ,0

1 2 ,0

70
1 0 ,0

60
20 06 8 ,0 20 07 20 08 6 ,0 20 09

DTP1 50 40 30 20 DTP3 M CV Po l 3

4 ,0

2 ,0

10 TR2 0 1 0
GR FR DE AT 0 ,0 C Y S E E S E E BG UK DK SK LV IE HU R O BE NL PL MT C Z PT LU LT IT TR 2011 EU27 SI FI

EU -av

MT

AT

ES

BE

BG

DE

DK

UK

CY

NL

PL

FR

EE

PT

SE

CZ

EL

HU

SK

LT

Findings: - Infant mortality rate is still higher than the worst EU MS figures. - However, this should be understood in historical perspective as there are significant improvements in IMR and U5MR Questions: - How can positive developments be maintained? - Are there sufficient resources to achieve regional equalization in the improvements? Definition: The ratio of the number of deaths of children under 1 year of age during the year to the number of live births in that year. The value is expressed per 1,000 live births.
Source: EUROSTAT

Findings: -Vaccination is reported to be rather high - Health insurance coverage for children is reported to be very poor, however -Question: - How can health insurance coverage be extended and care for follow up of health status and medicines be improved? Definition: Percentage of infants reaching their 1st birthday in the given calendar year who have been fully vaccinated against pertussis (whooping cough), diphtheria, tetanus (DTP) poliomyelitis and measles.
Source: WHO

RO

LV

LU

IE

IT

FI

SI

B2.3. Low birth weight (%)

12 10

B2.4. Exclusive breastfeeding rate (%)

45 40 35

30 25
2006

2007 2008

20 15 10 5

2009

0 CY BE DE NL AT FR S E E S CZ PT E E E L DK SK BG MT HU LU PL IE LT RO UK LV IT
0

Definition: (% of children<2,500 grams) Source: OECD Health Data 2011

Definition: % of children aged 6 months Source: UNICEF The State of the World's Children 2009

B2.5. General life satisfaction (%)

10 0

B2.6. Oral health (%)

90

100 90
80

80
70

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Tot al Boys Gi r ls

AT

CY M TR T 20 09

FR EU -a v

BE

CZ RO

PT HU

DE

EL DK

LT BG

FI NL

SI SK

SE

EE

ES

PL

UK

LV

LU

AT

IE

DE

Definition: Share of children aged 13 reporting high life satisfaction i.e. a score 6 or more. Young people rate their life satisfaction on a scale from 0 to 10.

Definition: Share of children aged 11 who report brushing their teeth more than once a day.
Source: HBSC 2009/2010

B2.7. Children who eat fruit daily (%)

60

B2.8. Children who eat breakfast every school day (%)

100 90

50

80 70

40

60
30 Total Boys Girls 20

TR CY 20 09

BE

HU

BG

RO

-a v

UK

DK

NL

EL

FR

IT

LT

CZ

PT

SK

EE

IE

ES

EU

SE

PL

LU

LV

IT

FI

SI

TR2003-2008
Total Boys Girls
2006 2007 2008 2009

EU-av

FR A EU T -2 7

TR CY 20 08

IT M T DE

SK BE

NL

CZ

PT UK RO

ES BG HU

PL

SI DK

SE EE

LU

FI LV

EL

LT

IE

50 40 30 20

10

10
0
AT TR CY 20 09 DE BE FR EL NL LT CZ ES EU -a v LU M T UK HU SI PT SK EE SE IE RO BG PL LV DK IT FI

AT

BE

Definition: Share of children aged 11 who report eating fruit at least every day or more than once a day.
Source: UNICEF, HBSC 2009/2010

B2.9. Physical activity (%)

60 50

Definition: Share of children aged 11 who report eating breakfast every school day. Young people are asked how often they eat breakfast on school days and at weekends. Breakfast is defined in the question as more than a glass of milk or fruit juice. Source: UNICEF, HBSC 2009/2010

B3.1. Teenage births

0,0 5 0 ,0 4 5 0,0 4

40

0 ,0 3 5 0,0 3

30

Total Boys (% ) G (% irls )

0 ,0 2 5 0,0 2 0 ,0 1 5

20

10

0,0 1 0 ,0 0 5

0
BE EU -av DE HU RO M T BG UK DK TR 20 09 CY FR NL PT AT CZ ES SE EE IE SK LU EL PL LT IT LV FI SI

0
AT CY BE FR TR BG 20 08 NL CZ DE E EU S -2 7 PT SE T SK GR HU EE PL M RO LT IE DK LV UK LU IT FI SI

Definition: Proportion of children aged 13 who were physically active on every day of the week for a total of at least 60 minutes per day.
Source: UNICEF, HBSC 2009/2010

Definition: births per 100 women aged 1519

Source: EUROSTAT

C TR Y 20 09

FR

LT EU -a v

FI DE

SK HU

RO

BG

UK

DK

NL

EL

CZ

PT

IE

ES

SE

EE

LU

PL

LV

IT

SI

FI

S I

B3.2. Daily smoking (%)

40
70

B3.4. Heavy episodic drinking (%)

60

35

30

50

25
40

20

Total Gi r l s
30

Total Gi rls Boys

15

Boys
20

10
10

0
AT DE CY BE N L GR H U FR RO BG UK -a v SI DK TR LT CZ PT T IE EE SE SK ES PL LU IT LV FI M EU

0
DE HU GR AT CY BE NL LU FR RO -a v BG UK EU M DK TR CZ PT LT T ES SE SK EE PL LV IE IT SI FI

Definition: share of daily smokers among those aged 16 B3.3. Regular alcohol use (%)
60 50

Definition: Share of children aged 16 who report having had 5 or more drinks on one occasion at least once in the last 30 days. B3.5. Illicit drug use (%)
60 50

40

40

30

Total Gi rls Boys

30

Total Gi r l s Boys

20

20

10

10

0
DE AT CY BE NL FR -a v BG HU GR RO UK DK EU M TR PT CZ EE ES SE SK PL T LU LT LV IE IT FI SI

0
AT EU -a v DE CY BE NL FR RO BG GR HU DK M UK TR T CZ PT SE LT EE SK ES PL IE LU LV IT FI SI

Definition: Share of children aged 16 who report Definition: Share of children aged 16 who report having drunk alcoholic beverages 6 or more times having ever used any illicit drugs in their lifetime. in the last 30 days. B3.6. Tranquilliser/medicine use without doctor's orders (%)
25

20

Finding: Turkey is not a member of ESPAD, neither HBSC Suggestion: it would be important to have data on risk behaviour from any of these surveys (preferably ESPAD for purposes of full comparability)

Definition: Share of children aged 16 who report having ever used tranquillisers/sedatives.
Source: ESPAD 2007

15

10

EU-av

MT

AT

DE

GR

BE

CY

NL

PT

UK

DK

CZ

FR

PL

EE

SE

ES

HU

BG

RO

t r anquil l iser s for or der

Gir l s

Boys

t r anqui li ser s w it hout or der

Summary report card for Turkey - material well-being

Policy conclusion: - Efforts shall have to be made to decrease material deprivation this, however, can be expected to come with equitable economic growth - Investments shall have to be made into early childhood schooling

TR

LV

SK

LT

IE

LU

IT

SI

FI

Summary report card for Turkey - education

Policy conclusion: - Efforts shall have to be made to increase enrolment in early childhood education (supply and demand side interventions alike) - Investments shall have to be made reduce school dropouts and early school leaving

Summary report card for Turkey - health

Areas for further inspection: - regional disparities in access to health services

Summary report card for Turkey Risk-taking behaviour

Policy conclusion:

Summary report card for Turkey available lead indicators

Additional indicators should be introduced for Turkey to monitor progress Enrolment of 3-5 year olds in pre-school education Enrolment of pupils at age 14-18 Territorial breakdowns for all the above indicators

Conclusions and lessons for the future

On most indicators the countrys performance is weaker than the EU average, while on some occasions (eg. poverty gap, teenage births) it is similar to some of the new member states (eg. RO, BG)

Initial results show remarkable progress, but some shifts in policy priorities promise results in better and more efficient delivery of improvements in child well being

Modernization/development related factors health and education infrastructure developments Policy related factors improved access to early education longer schooling more equitable regional distribution Data situation have to be improved and a monitoring frame should be set up to document/monitor/analyse policies and provide feedback to them

Thank you for the attention

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