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Probabilis#c

Graphical Models

Introduc#on

Mo#va#on and Overview


Daphne Koller

predisposing factors symptoms test results diseases treatment outcomes

millions of pixels or thousands of superpixels each needs to be labeled {grass, sky, water, cow, horse, }

Daphne Koller

Probabilistic Graphical Models


Daphne Koller

domain expert

Models
Declarative representation

Data
Learning

elicitation

Model
Algorithm

Algorithm

Algorithm

Daphne Koller

Uncertainty
Partial knowledge of state of the world Noisy observations Phenomena not covered by our model Inherent stochasticity
Daphne Koller

Probability Theory
Declarative representation with clear semantics Powerful reasoning patterns Established learning methods
Daphne Koller

Complex Systems
predisposing factors symptoms test results diseases treatment outcomes class labels for thousands of superpixels

Random variables X1,, Xn Joint distribution P(X1,, Xn)


Daphne Koller

Graphical Models
Bayesian networks
Difficulty Intelligence Grade Letter SAT D C

Markov networks
A B

Daphne Koller

Graphical Models

M. Pradhan, G. Provan, B. Middleton, M. Henrion, UAI 94

Daphne Koller

Graphical Representation
Intuitive & compact data structure Efficient reasoning using general-purpose algorithms Sparse parameterization
feasible elicitation learning from data
Daphne Koller

Many Applications
Medical diagnosis Computer vision Image segmentation Fault diagnosis 3D reconstruction Natural language Holistic scene analysis processing Speech recognition Traffic analysis Social network models Robot localization & mapping Message decoding
Daphne Koller

Image Segmentation

Daphne Koller

Medical Diagnosis -

Thanks to: Eric Horvitz, Microsoft Research

Daphne Koller

Textual Information Extraction


Mrs. Green spoke today in New York. Green chairs the finance committee.

Daphne Koller

Multi-Sensor Integration: Traffic


Multiple views on traffic

Trained on historical data Learn to predict current & future road speed, including on unmeasured roads Dynamic route optimization

Weather

Learned Model

Incident reports

Thanks to: Eric Horvitz, Microsoft Research

I95 corridor experiment: accurate to 5 MPH in 85% of cases Fielded in 72 cities


Daphne Koller

This figure may be used for non-commercial and classroom purposes only. Any other uses require the prior written permission from AAAS

Biological Network Reconstruction


PKC PKA Plc Jnk PIP3 Erk PIP2 Akt Subsequently validated in wetlab
Daphne Koller

Phospho-Proteins Phospho-Lipids Perturbed in data

Raf P38 Mek

Known Supported Reversed Missed

15/17 2/17 1 3

Causal protein-signaling networks derived from multiparameter single-cell data Sachs et al., Science 2005

Representation

Overview

Directed and undirected Temporal and plate models Exact and approximate Decision making Parameters and structure With and without complete data

Inference

Learning

Daphne Koller