Scenario Description Rev 180912 Hand-Out

18.09.
2012
Seminar for PETROVIETNAM 18th to 19th September 2012
Seminar on
Depressurization and Safety
of Process Plants
Scenario Description
Dr. Geir Langli
Petrell as
Olav Tryggvasonsgt. 40
Trondheim
Norway
Topics
Risk analysis and design accidental events
and loads
Accident scenario
Probabilistic approach
background heat loads, escalation risk
Scenario-specific fire loads versus

standard fire loads
18.09.2012
Objective of lecture
The presentation focuses on the
understanding and description of fire risk
such that the design of the depressurization system reflects the actual process
design, operating conditions, layout and
safety systems.
Types of fires
Pool fire
BLEVE
Fireball
Jet fire
BLEVE Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion
18.09.2012
DAE / DAL
DAE
Dimensioning Accidental Event / Design
Accidental Event an accidental event the
installation is (shall be) designed to withstand
DAL
Dimensioning Accidental Load / Design
Accidental Load the load imposed from a
DAE
DAE / DAL
DAE + RAE = All accidental events
RAE (Residual Accidental Event): the events
the installation is not designed to withstand
The load is so high that it will not be feasible or
cost-effective to design against it
The frequency of occurrence is low/negligible
18.09.2012
Risk analysis
Includes development of accident
scenarios based on identified hazards
(HAZID)
Frequencies of occurrence are found from
statistics
Quantification of risk to allow comparison
with acceptance criteria (i.e. pertaining to
fatality rate and survivability of main
safety functions)
Risk analysis - fires

Hole size distribution
Leakage rate distribution
Leakage statistics
=> leakage scenarios
Ignition probability
Fire distribution (size, direction etc.)
Typical (dimensioning) fire
18.09.2012
No. of leakages
Leakage statistics NCS
Source:
PSA: Risk level in the petroleum industry, main report, NCS 2010.
NCS: Norwegian Continental Shelf
No. of leakages per platform year
Fixed installations
Source:
18.09.2012
No. of leakages per platform year
Floating installations
Source:
Risk analysis - fires

It is important to identify which
systems/components that can be exposed
to a fire
18.09.2012
Risk analysis
Output from risk analysis includes basis for
establishment of Design Accidental Load
A design fire load can be established
based on
Standards
Fire simulations
Scenario analysis
A combination of the above
Heat loads
Heat loads used in
Guidelines for the Protection of Pressurized Systems
Exposed to Fire
NORSOK S-001
Heat load
Jet fire
>2
kW/m2
Local peak
350
Global average
100 kW/m2
Pool fire
0.1 < 2
250 kW/m2
150 kW/m2
0 kW/m2
100 kW/m2
: leak rate [kg/s]
18.09.2012
DAE fire
What is a dimensioning fire?

How does a DAE fire look like?
What size is it?
What impact can it make?
PSA (Norway) Facilities Regulations, Sec. 11

Loads, load effects and resistance
The loads that can affect facilities or parts of
facilities, shall be determined. Accidental loads and
natural loads with an annual probability greater
than or equal to 1x10-4, shall not result in loss of a
main safety function.
18.09.2012
DAE fire
The most likely severe fire is typically from
an ignited leak 1 5 kg/s, averaging 2
kg/s
Such a fire is about
35 m long, 15 m wide (at the 100 kW/m2
radiation iso-surface)
Radiation iso-surface
(illustration only)
37,5 kW/m2
100 kW/m2
18.09.2012
Examples on Fire DAE
D22
Sigyn
modification
project
Hang-off and
included 2nd ESD
riser valve (U-18EV101/131/104/13
4) associated
equipment and their
pipe supports
Jetfire 30 min,
(250kW/m2) with
additional 90 min
HC-fire (200kW/m2)
Both 8 and 10
Scenario description
A description of all factors influencing the
development of the accident scenario
Leakage rate, duration and direction
Oil, gas or multi-phase; process conditions
Layout and arrangement
Process sectionalization (location of ESDVs)
Blow-down and flare
Automatic or manual blow-down
Active and passive fire protection
10
18.09.2012
Plant layout
Plant layout
11
18.09.2012
Plant layout
Area/module layout
Equipment and
equipment orientation
12
18.09.2012
Purpose of scenario description

To use realistic data
Process data, geometrical data, material data
Fire load (profile, peak and background heat)
Standard fire loads may prove conservative for open modules and onshore plants
(Too) conservative data may give results
that kill the project
Less conservative data implies higher risk
Challenge
Fire loads
When given, often for an area/module
Cf. QRA/TRA or DAL specification
Establishment of fire loads
Applying the given fire load (peak load

and background load) for all equipment
and pipework at the same time may be
too conservative
13
18.09.2012
Fire load
Background and peak load
Varies with time
Jet fires have a direction
A vast amount of
leakage locations
leakage rates and directions
Fire heat load profile

kW/m2
kW/m2
14
18.09.2012
All leaks from this flange

will have a horizontal
direction. In general, the
leak direction is uniformly
distributed along the
circumference.
NORTH
All leaks from this flange

will have a vertical
direction: upwards,
downwards, and (in the
case for this particular
flange) to the north and
south).
15
18.09.2012
Average leakage location

X
Freq.
2E-2
4E-3
5E-4
8E-2
3,75
5,75 N/A
6,77
4,60
1
4
The yellow average leakage location presumes all leak points

have the same leak frequency.
The green star average leakage location takes into account the
leak frequency of each point.
In most cases, the Z-coordinate should also be included.
10
Note: Illustration only.
Horizontal pipe and flange

~25%
Directed
upwards
~25% directed to the left
flange
~25% directed to the right
pipe
~25%
Directed
downwards
16
18.09.2012
Long segments (piperacks)

a)
90 for D = 2 10 m
60 for D = 10 - 30 m
b)
1,07m
42
0,43m
0,91m
36
42
36
EL +10400
120
P(exposure 36/fire in 42)

120/360 = 0.33
P(exposure 36/fire in 42)

90/360 = 0.25 for 90 ,
60/360 = 0.17 for 60
Jet fire geometry

QRA / DAL states (for a specific plant):
The jet typically has a length of 60 m in which it
exceeds 37.5 kW/m2
Unignited small and medium sized leaks are assumed
not to be noticed and do not contribute to downtime.
All leaks are assumed to have a 2% probability of
immediate ignition
Fire water is assumed to be not available with a
conditional probability of 0.1
Fire water may reduce fire load significantly
17
18.09.2012
Jet fire geometry

Enclosed, semi-enclosed or open area
Perform fire simulation, for the more likely
leak rates, to establish radiation contour
co-ordinates
Pool fire geometry

Spill on ground
Soil, concrete etc.
Trays, ponds
Presence of drain system
Surface area and thickness of layer
18
18.09.2012
Example "average fire"

Leak category
Release rate range
Small
0.1 2 kg/s
Medium
2 15 kg/s
Large
15 300 kg/s
Very large
> 300 kg/s
Category
Leak rate
(kg/s)
Freq. (per
year)
Flame length Vertical jet

(m)
37.5 kW (m)
Horiz. jet
37.5 kW (m)
Medium
5.8
1.6E-2
31
25.1
40
Large
26
1.5E-2
66
37.5
76
Operating conditions: Pmax = 44 barg, T = 26 C
composition
19
18.09.2012
Composition (mole
percentage)
Nitrogen
H2S
CO2
Methane
Ethane
Propane
i-Butane
n-Butane
i-Pentane
n-Pentane
C6
C7
C8
C9
C10
C11
C12
C13
C14
C15-C16
C17-C20
C21-C25
C26-C35
C36+
H2O
Others
0,936
0,008
3,471
67,474
7,079
3,719
0,741
1,564
0,671
0,7
0,918
0,993
0,837
0,585
0,593
0,45
0,329
0,314
0,242
0,527
0,278
0,13
0,126
0,102
6,6
0,613
Vapour mole fraction

Mass flow
Molecular weight
Mass density
0,829203562kg/hr
29,8333,23kg/m3
Vapour phase
Mass flow
Molecular weight
Actual gas flow
Mass density
Compressibility
thermal conductivity
Mass heat capacity
Cp/Cv
Viscosity
117160kg/hr
20,7
6016m3/hr
19,47kg/m3
0,9410,032W/mK
2,125kJ/kgC
1,3440,012cP
HC liquid
78457
108,403
102,84
762,89
0,117
1,988
0,829
Example: blowdown analysis of an

onshore plant
3D segments compared to piperack segments which
can be regarded as 1D/2D
Valves and flanges are found throughout the segments.
Pipe orientation means that leaks will have either a N/S
or E/W direction, if not up or down.
Many scenarios imply that an average scenario should be
established.
Based on plot plans, one leak location is assigned to
each of the BD segments.
20
18.09.2012
3D
2D
1D
Example: blowdown analysis of an

onshore plant
INLET
SECTION
SEGMENT 1
SEGMENT 2
SEGMENT 3
SEGMENT 4
SEGMENT 13
SEGMENT 14
SEGMENT 12
SEGMENT 11
SEGMENT 5
NGT
METERING
SEGMENT 8
SEGMENT 6
SEGMENT 9
SEGMENT 15
SEGMENT 7
NEW
PROCESS
AREA
21
18.09.2012
Example: BD segment #5
Jet fire location
16m
36m
Consideration: 80% of piping/vessels

exposed.
Blowdown segment no. 5:

exposing itself to jet fire
36m
16m
Jet fire location
22
18.09.2012
Jet fire location
Consideration: 80% of piping/vessels

exposed.

average leak location
23
18.09.2012
Jet fire location

Blowdown segment no. 5: exposing

itself to jet fire - Summary
Approximately 1/3 of fires in BD#5 will start in the left
(west) part of the segment.
Approximately 1/3 of fires in BD#5 will start in the
middle segment.
Approximately 1/3 of fires in BD#5 will start in the right
(east) part of the segment.
Scaling background heat load
Starting point: 100 kW/m2
Averaging: (0,8*100 + 0,8*100 + (0,25*100)*2)/3 =
210/3 = 70 kW/m2
About 80% of pipework runs horizontally
24
18.09.2012
Work process scenario-specific

heat loads
Identify the dimensioning fire (DAE)
Identify "average location" for the fire
Establish/verify leakage frequencies 2
Perform equipment/leak source count
Establish/verify ignition probabilities

Define exposed area/surface
Estimate probability of exposure
P(direction of jet towards 'j')
Work process heat loads and

escalation risk
Calculate fire frequencies
Calculate background heat loads
Calculate probability of escalation
P(exposure of 'j' | fire in 'i') = P(fire in 'i') x
P(direction of jet towards 'j') x [mutual
exposure]
Mutual exposure is a number (0,..,1) saying
something about to what extent two segments are
exposing each other)
25
18.09.2012
Mutual exposure
Segment 1
Mutual exposure = 1
Segment 2
Segment 1
Mutual exposure = 0,5

Segment 2
Work process heat load and

escalation risk
Summarize results
Rank the results w.r.t.
What extent a segment is exposed to fire risk
due to fires in adjacent segments
Fire risk in the segment
P(fire in 'i') + P(exposed to fires in 'j')
Identify risk reducing measures (per

segment)
Evaluate and implement
26
18.09.2012
Equipment count
Equipment count summary

Blow down Segment no.
valve
valve flange
1"
flange
instr. fitting
valve
valve flange
2"
flange
instr. fitting
valve
valve flange
3"
flange
instr. fitting
valve
valve flange
4"
flange
instr. fitting
valve
valve flange
42"
flange
instr. fitting
valve
valve flange
SUM
flange
instr. fitting
1
7
9
2
18
10
3
8
9
4
11
12
5
60
37
6
60
37
7
65
68
8
51
31
9
51
31
10
51
31
11
46
15
12
5
1
13
15
16
14
35
17
6
7
11
2
14
12
20
3
3
5
7
3
4
7
10
4
14
54
78
9
18
5
7
1
14
54
78
9
18
5
7
1
29
45
69
19
25
35
40
2
25
35
40
2
25
35
40
2
4
4
5
3
7
11
16
6
13 131
15 43
22 48
4 30
2
3
6
8
2
6
8
2
6
8
2
10
20
31
7
6
15
8
3
2
2
2
3
5
6
4
6
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
6
10
2
35
34
4
14
17
19
3
3
23 128 128 136 108 108 108

25 130 130 154 83 83 83
4 25 25 19 18 18 18
4 41 41 29 25 25 25
16
6
9
1
25
30
4
6
15
74
20
97
72
20
16
15
12
4
4
1
33
38
6
7
65
42
5
13
220
210
117
287
0
0
0
0
SUM
557
344
0
324
382
515
105
42
54
60
11
0
22
31
9
0
5
0
2
0
1246
1145
290
540
27
18.09.2012
Assessment of leak frequencies

Area
Blow
Down
Segment Name
1 NGT Reception Facilities
2 PL from NGT RF to H2S Removal
5 New Gas Treater Trains
6 New Gas Treater Trains
7
8 H2S Removal
9 H2S Removal
10 H2S Removal
11 Crossover
12 Crossover
13 PL from H2S Removal to NGT Metering
14 PL from H2S Removal to NGT Metering
15 NGT Sales Gas Metering
Leakage
frequency
7,99E-02
2,73E-02
2,73E-02
2,73E-02
1,59E-01
1,59E-01
2,73E-02
1,43E-01
1,43E-01
1,43E-01
1,25E-02
1,25E-02
4,66E-02
4,66E-02
4,31E-02
Blow Down Segment

Correction
factor
Notes
1 too high?
0,4 3 almost identical
0,50 2 identical
0,50 2 identical
1,80 estimated based on 2,3,4
0,33 3 identical
0,33 3 identical
0,33 3 identical
0,88 weighted by no. big valves
1
Leakage
Ignition
Fire
frequency frequency frequency
7,99E-02
2,05E-02
1,63E-03
1,09E-02
2,05E-02
2,23E-04
8,19E-03
2,05E-02
1,67E-04
8,19E-03
2,05E-02
1,67E-04
7,96E-02
2,05E-02
1,63E-03
7,96E-02
2,05E-02
1,63E-03
4,91E-02
2,05E-02
1,00E-03
4,75E-02
2,05E-02
9,71E-04
4,75E-02
2,05E-02
9,71E-04
4,75E-02
2,05E-02
9,71E-04
1,10E-02
2,05E-02
2,25E-04
1,50E-03
2,05E-02
3,07E-05
1,40E-02
2,05E-02
2,86E-04
3,26E-02
2,05E-02
6,67E-04
4,31E-02
2,05E-02
8,80E-04
There may be differences in equipment count, for several reasons

In the case of significant deviations, it is useful to calibrate leak
frequencies, and hence fire frequencies, according to the equipment
count
Assessment of exposed surface

Estimated from plot plans
Blowdown
segment
Diameter Surface
(inch) area (m2)
Pipe length (m)
1
39,2
2
251,1
3
301
4
187,5
4
145
4 Sum
5
5 Vessels
5 Sum
6
6 Vessels
6 Sum
7
370
8
8
8 Addition vertical legs
8 Vessels
8 Sum
9 same as #8
11
12 No plots
13
250
39,2
251,1
301
187,5
145
332,5
110
36
36
36
36
30
110
30
370
140
80
44
264
248
512
264
30
20
24
20 %
30
92
409,7
30
42
36
42
473,9
332,5
42
61
Sum
14
15
Vol
112,55
720,96
864,24
538,35
346,94
885,29
263,19
128,00
391,19
263,19
128,00
391,19
885,29
223,32
153,13
75,29
25,72931
164,812
197,5644
123,0675
66,0918
189,1593
50,13861
54
104,1386
50,13861
54
104,1386
168,648
28,36123
23,33724
10,3397
248,00
699,74
699,74
598,17
0,00
264,15
1372,39
1636,55
1587,45
1617,65
100
162,0382
162,0382
113,9514
0
60,38512
366,0173
426,4024
423,3722
626,5971
Estimate based on:

..\..\..\2010
Approx.
Pipe
Pipe
surface
Gas
volume length (m) area (m2)
42
152
158
146
63,98928 183,727
231,5802 664,9169
240,7216 691,1636
222,4389 638,6702
116 254,4945 608,9239
119 261,0762 624,6719
171
190
375,16 897,6378
937,9 1496,063
187
937,9 1496,063
187 410,2627 981,6273
328 367,1455 1229,846
300 457,0663 1312,336
401 448,8577 1503,562

491 260,5462 1267,587
28
18.09.2012
Jet fire width (W [m]) @ 100 kW/m2
Pipeline (L [m])
The method described in e.g. the Scandpower Guideline presumes a dense

module (ref. offshore platform). For onshore plants the method will prove
conservative, and it is therefore reasonable to reduce the background peak
load according to (e.g.) 100 kW/m2 * W/L
Probability of exposure
P(exposure) = 0.8 x [0.5(1-'north'-'south''up'-'down')+0.5 x (1 - 'west'-'up'-'down')] +
0.2 x (1 - 'north'-'south'-'west')
0.8 refers to share of horizontal pipes, valves
and flanges
0.2 refers to share of vertical pipes etc.
The value of 'north, 'south etc. is 0.25
29
18.09.2012
Prob(exposure of segment j | fire in segment i)

BD #1
BD #2
Parallell
Parallell Mutual P(direction of P(exposure of Parallell Mutual P(direction of P(exposure
Length
P(fire in 'i') with exposure jet towards 'j' 'j' | fire in 'i')
with exposure jet towards 'j' of 'j' | fire in 'i')
with
of 'i'
64,0
251,1
301,0
222,4
254,5
261,1
370,0
264,0
264,0
410,3
367,1
457,0
448,9
260,5
1,63E-03
2,23E-04
1,67E-04
1,67E-04
1,63E-03
1,63E-03
1,00E-03
9,71E-04
9,71E-04
2,25E-04
3,07E-05
2,86E-04
6,67E-04
8,80E-04
0,0
44,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,00000
0,17523
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,33
0,33
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0
0,00E+00
1,29E-05
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
1,29E-05
44,0
0,0
1,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
86,0
0,0
0,68762
0,00000
0,00332
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,19158
0,00000
0,33
0,00
0,10
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,25
0,00
3,71E-04
0,00E+00
5,56E-08
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
3,20E-05
0,00E+00
4,03E-04
BD#3
Mutual P(direction of P(exposure
Parallell
exposure jet towards 'j' of 'j' | fire in 'i')
with
0,0
1,0
0,0
1,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
123,0
55,0
266,0
0,0
0,00000
0,00398
0,00000
0,00450
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,33506
0,12035
0,59256
0,00000
0,00
0,10
0,00
0,10
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,17
0,33
0,33
0,00
0,00E+00
0,0
8,89E-08
0,0
0,00E+00
1,0
7,53E-08
0,0
0,00E+00 Note 1
0,00E+00 Note 2
0,00E+00
30,0
0,00E+00 Note 3
0,00E+00
0,0
0,00E+00
24,0
1,75E-06
78,0
1,14E-05
144,0
1,30E-04
0,0
0,00E+00
0,0
1,44E-04
BD #4
Exposure P(direction of P(exposure of
jet towards 'j' 'j' | fire in 'i')
0,00000
0,00000
0,00332
0,00000
0,83333
0,41667
0,08108
0,20833
0,00000
0,05849
0,21248
0,31510
0,00000
0,00000
0,00
0,00
0,10
0,00
0,45
0,30
0,33
0,15
0,00
0,33
0,17
0,33
0,00
0,00
Parallell
with
0,00E+00
0,0
0,00E+00
0,0
5,56E-08
0,0
0,00E+00
90,0
6,10E-04
0,0
2,03E-04 Note 6
2,69E-05
28,0
3,04E-05
5,8
0,00E+00
0,0
4,34E-06
5,0
1,11E-06
0,0
2,97E-05
19,0
0,00E+00
0,0
0,00E+00
0,0
9,06E-04
BD#5
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,40468
0
0,14444
0,07568
0,27358
0,00000
0,01219
0,00000
0,04158
0,00000
0,00000
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,22
1
0,15
0,17
0,15
0,00
0,17
0,00
0,17
0,00
0,00
BD #6
Parallell
with
0,00E+00
0,0
0,00E+00
0,0
0,00E+00
0,0
1,49E-05
60,0
0,00E+00 Note 6
3,53E-05
0,0
1,29E-05
58,0
3,99E-05
0,0
0,00E+00 Note 7
4,66E-07
0,0
0,00E+00
0,0
2,02E-06
0,0
0,00E+00
0,0
0,00E+00
0,0
1,05E-04
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,26978
0,15556
0,00000
0,15676
0,00000
0,02222
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,33
0,17
1,00
0,17
0,00
0,17
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
BD #7
Exposure P(direction of P(exposure
Parallell
jet towards 'j' of 'j' | fire in 'i')
with
Parallell
with
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
1,49E-05
4,30E-05
0,00E+00
2,68E-05
0,00E+00
3,67E-06
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
8,84E-05
0
0
0
30
Note 1
Note 2
0
Note 3
26
10
0
10
0
0
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,13489
0,83333
0,41667
0,00000
0,20833
0,09848
0,02437
0,00000
0,02188
0,00000
0,00000
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,33
0,45
0,30
0,00
0,15
0,17
0,33
0,00
0,33
0,00
0,00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
7,46E-06
6,10E-04
2,03E-04
0,00E+00
3,04E-05
1,63E-05
1,81E-06
0,00E+00
2,06E-06
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
8,72E-04
BD#8
Exposure P(direction of P(exposure of Parallell
with
0,0
0,0
0,0
22,0
5,8
0
38,0
0,0
Note 10
Note 9
0,0
Note 9
0,0
0,0
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,09892
0,02279
0,00000
0,10270
0,00000
0,50000
0,12500
0,00000
0,12500
0,00000
0,00000
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,17
0,15
0,00
0,17
0,00
0,15
0,10
0,00
0,10
0,00
0,00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
2,82E-06
5,56E-06
0,00E+00
1,75E-05
0,00E+00
7,29E-05
2,81E-06
0,00E+00
3,57E-06
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
1,05E-04
BD #9
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0
41,0
Note 10
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,11081
0,50000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,25
0,15
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
BD#11
Parallell
with
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
2,78E-05
7,29E-05
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
1,01E-04
0,0
0,0
0,0
24,0
Note 8
0,0
7,0
Note 9
0,0
0,0
1,0
43,0
0,0
0,0
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,10791
0,10556
0,00000
0,01892
0,06944
0,00000
0,00000
0,00272
0,09409
0,00000
0,00000
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,33
0,15
0,00
0,33
0,10
0,00
0,00
0,10
0,17
0,00
0,00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
5,96E-06
2,58E-05
0,00E+00
6,27E-06
6,75E-06
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
8,36E-09
4,57E-06
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
4,93E-05
BD#12
Parallell
with
0,0
0,0
128,0
85,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
1,0
0,0
1,0
0,0
0,0
0,00000
0,00000
0,42525
0,38219
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00244
0,00000
0,00219
0,00000
0,00000
0,00
0,00
0,17
0,17
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,10
1,00
0,10
0,00
0,00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
1,21E-05
1,09E-05
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
5,48E-08
0,00E+00
6,26E-08
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
2,31E-05
Parallell
with
0
0
55
144
Note 8
0
6
Note 9
0
43
1
0
1
0
BD#13
0,00000
0,00000
0,18272
0,64748
0,10556
0,00000
0,01622
0,06944
0,00000
0,10480
0,00272
0,00000
0,00223
0,00000
0,00
0,00
0,33
0,33
0,15
0,00
0,33
0,10
0,00
0,33
0,10
0,00
0,10
0,00
Parallell
with
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
1,01E-05
3,58E-05
2,58E-05
0,00E+00
5,38E-06
6,75E-06
0,00E+00
7,77E-06
8,36E-09
0,00E+00
1,49E-07
0,00E+00
9,17E-05
0,0
86,0
266,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
1,0
0,0
70,0
BD #14
Exposure P(direction of P(exposure
Parallell
jet towards 'j' of 'j' | fire in 'i')
with
0,00000
0,34249
0,88372
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00219
0,00000
0,26871
0,00
0,33
0,33
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,10
1,00
0,17
0,00E+00
2,52E-05
4,88E-05
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
6,26E-08
0,00E+00
4,02E-05
1,14E-04
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
70,0
0,0
BD #15
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,15594
0,00000
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,17
1,00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
1,77E-05
0,00E+00
1,77E-05
BD #1
BD #2
Parallell Mutual P(direction of P(exposure of Parallell Mutual P(direction of P(exposure
Length
P(fire in 'i') with exposure jet towards 'j' 'j' | fire in 'i')
with exposure jet towards 'j' of 'j' | fire in 'i')
of 'i'
BD # i
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
11
12
13
14
15
64,0
251,1
301,0
222,4
254,5
261,1
370,0
264,0
264,0
410,3
367,1
457,0
448,9
260,5
1,63E-03
2,23E-04
1,67E-04
1,67E-04
1,63E-03
1,63E-03
1,00E-03
9,71E-04
9,71E-04
2,25E-04
3,07E-05
2,86E-04
6,67E-04
8,80E-04
0,0
44,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,00000
0,17523
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,33
0,33
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0
0,00E+00
1,29E-05
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
1,29E-05
44,0
0,0
1,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
86,0
0,0
0,68762
0,00000
0,00332
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,00000
0,19158
0,00000
0,33
0,00
0,10
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,25
0,00
3,71E-04
0,00E+00
5,56E-08
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
0,00E+00
3,20E-05
0,00E+00
4,03E-04
44/251,1=0,17523
2.23E-4 * 0.17523 * 0.33 = 1.29E-5
BD#i Parameter
BD#1
Length parallel with

Segment length
BD#2
44,0
64,0
1 Distance to/between
Width of jet 100 kW/m2
Background heat load
Segment length
BD#i Parameter
9,5
20,0
45,5
60,0
44,0
BD #3
BD #4
BD#5
BD#6
BD #7
BD#8
BD#9
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
22,5
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
35,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
30,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
22,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
24,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
131,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
55,0
32,0
20,0
5,4
150,0
0,5
20,0
4,4
144,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
30,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18,0
N/A
N/A
7,0
13 - 25
20,0
10,0
20,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
111,1
4,9
N/A
20,0
7,0
29 - 65
16,0
80,0
18,0
20,0
4,9
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
90,0
1,0
251,1

Segment length
Segment length
9,5
20,0
31,3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1,0
20,0
8,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Segment length
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
35,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
20,0
9,0
30,0
N/A
N/A
BD #1
Segment length
idth of jet 100 kW/m2
Segment length W
Segment length
idth of jet 100 kW/m2
Width of jet 100 kWW/m2
Segment length
Segment length Length parallel with
Segment length
ackground heat load
Width of jet 100 kWBLength
/m2
parallel with
Segment length
Background heat 1load
20,0
8,0
1,0
301,0
N/A
N/A
64,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
60,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
44,0
N/A
N/A

Segment length
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Segment length
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Segment length
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Segment length
9,5
20,0
31,3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
20,0
6,6
1,0
20,0
9,0
2- 15
20,0
88,9
35,0
N/A
1,0
N/A
20,0
20,0
9,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
24
30,0
20,0
6,6
31,0
20,0
9,0
20,0
7,9
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
55
144
19
0,5
20,0
6,6
0,5
20,0
9,0
35,0
20,0
7,9
251,1
20,0
8,00,5
266
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
20,0
9,0
80,0
30,0
20,0
57,1
N
/A261,1
30,0
20,0
N
/A 75,0
57,1
28,0
N
/A 58,0
27,5
27,5
20,0
N
/A 20,0
71,4
34,5
NN
/A /AN/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
131
0,5
20,0
6,6
20,0
254,4
BD75,0
#3
9,5
0,5 - 1,5
20,020,0
N/A
9,0
N/A
45,522,0
N/A
86
2- 15 0,5 - 1,5 17,5 - 27,5

20,0
20,0
16,0
57,1
5,4
72,7
35,0
2 - 15
20,0
9,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1,0
20,0
30,0 8,0
5
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
86,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0,5
20,0
4,5
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6,0
10,0
20,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4,4
N/A
N/A
6,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
60,0
44,0
2- 15
0,5
20,0
2,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1,0
20,0
2,2
222,4
1,0
20,0
6,6
BD #2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1,0
20,0
8,0
BD#11 BD #12 BD#13 BD#14 BD#15
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
27,5
20,0
BD
5,4#4
20,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A18,0
370,0
13 - 25
20,0
N/A16,0
5,4
88,9
18,0
N/A
264,0
27,5
20,0
5,4
N/A
55,0
N/A20,0
18,0
30,0
N
/A
20,0
20,0
5,4
100,0
N/A
7,0
7,0
N/A10,0
10,0
20,0
20,0
5,4
18,0
20,0
5,4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
20,0
7,6
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
10
30
0,5
20,0
5,4
18,0
16,0
53,3
264,0
55,0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0,5
20,0
4,9
30,0
20,0
4,9
32,0
20,0
5,4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0,5
20,0
4,4
30,0
30,0
20,0
4,4
18,0
20,0
4,4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
43,0
410,3
20,0
4,9
90,0
15,0
20,0
5,4
0,5
20,0
4,4
300,0
367,1
15,0
20,0
4,9
20,0
5,4
43
300
0,5
20,0
4,9
30,0
20,0
5,4
30,0
20,0
4,4
0,5
20,0
4,5
266,0
1,0
457,1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
20,0
4,4
0,5
20,0
4,5
1,0
=(20/64)*100
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
30,0
448,9
1,0
20,0
4,4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
20,0
4,5
1 - 10
20,0
66,7
1,0
260,5
1 - 10
20,0
4,5
10,0
30
18.09.2012
Background heat loads

Flame width
16 m
20 m
Exposed from
segment no.
1
2
50
25
60 31,1
1
Background heat load (kW/m2) in segments

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
11
12
13
14
6,4 72,7
70
70 88,9
80
80 7,2 7,2 53,3 53,3
8 90,9
75
75 100 100 100
9
9 66,7 66,7
2
15
15
10
10
15
(Compare with a standard background heat load of 100 kW/m2.)
Summary (P(exposure))
BD # i P(fire in 'i')
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
11
12
13
14
15
BD #1
BD #2
1,63E-03
0 3,71E-04
2,23E-04 1,29E-05
0
1,67E-04
0 5,56E-08
1,67E-04
0
0
1,63E-03
0
0
1,63E-03
0
0
1,00E-03
0
0
9,71E-04
0
0
9,71E-04
0
0
2,25E-04
0
0
3,07E-05
0
0
2,86E-04
0
0
6,67E-04
0 3,20E-05
8,80E-04
0
0
BD #3
BD #4
BD #5
BD #6
BD #7
0
8,89E-08
0
7,53E-08
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,75E-06
1,14E-05
1,30E-04
0
0
0
5,56E-08
0
6,10E-04
2,03E-04
2,69E-05
3,04E-05
0
4,34E-06
1,11E-06
2,97E-05
0
0
0
0
0
1,49E-05
0
3,53E-05
1,29E-05
3,99E-05
0
4,66E-07
0
2,02E-06
0
0
0
0
0
1,49E-05
4,30E-05
0
2,68E-05
0
3,67E-06
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,46E-06
6,10E-04
2,03E-04
0
3,04E-05
1,63E-05
1,81E-06
0
2,06E-06
0
0
BD #8
BD #9
BD #11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,82E-06
0 5,96E-06
5,56E-06
0 2,58E-05
0
0
0
1,75E-05 2,78E-05 6,27E-06
0 7,29E-05 6,75E-06
7,29E-05
0
0
2,81E-06
0
0
0
0 8,36E-09
3,57E-06
0 4,57E-06
0
0
0
0
0
0
BD #12
BD #13
BD #14
0
0
1,21E-05
1,09E-05
0
0
0
0
0
5,48E-08
0
6,26E-08
0
0
0
0
1,01E-05
3,58E-05
2,58E-05
0
5,38E-06
6,75E-06
0
7,77E-06
8,36E-09
0
1,49E-07
0
0
0
2,52E-05
0
4,88E-05
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,26E-08
0
0 1,77E-05
4,02E-05
0
BD #15
1,29E-05 4,03E-04 1,44E-04 9,06E-04 1,05E-04 8,84E-05 8,72E-04 1,05E-04 1,01E-04 4,93E-05 2,31E-05 9,17E-05 1,14E-04 1,77E-05
31
18.09.2012
Analysis of results: Ranking

BD # i
P(fire in 'i')
7
5
6
1
8
4
9
15
14
2
13
3
11
12
P(exposed fromfires in P(fire in 'i')+

other segments)
P(exposed)
1,00E-03
1,63E-03
1,63E-03
1,63E-03
9,71E-04
1,67E-04
9,71E-04
8,80E-04
6,67E-04
2,23E-04
2,86E-04
1,67E-04
2,25E-04
3,07E-05
8,72E-04
1,05E-04
8,84E-05
1,29E-05
1,05E-04
9,06E-04
1,01E-04
1,77E-05
1,14E-04
4,03E-04
9,17E-05
1,44E-04
4,93E-05
2,31E-05
1,877E-03
1,733E-03
1,716E-03
1,647E-03
1,077E-03
1,074E-03
1,072E-03
8,981E-04
7,816E-04
6,260E-04
3,777E-04
3,112E-04
2,741E-04
5,378E-05
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
The starting point for risk reduction!

Area
Receiving area
Pipe racks
Process
Metering
Segments
1
2, 3, 4, 12, 13, 14
4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
15
Risk of fire exposure Comment

1,65E-03
2,69E-03 50 % of segment 4
7,94E-03 50 % of segment 4
8,98E-04
Segment no. 1
Segment no. 2
Segment no. 3
Segment no. 4
Segment no. 13
Segment no. 12
Segment no. 14
Segment no. 5
Segment no. 6
Segment no. 11
Segment no. 15
Segment no. 8
and 9 (below)
Segment no. 7
32
18.09.2012
Summary
Risk analysis (QRA) defines fire loads
Standard fire loads may result in a
conservative and expensive design
Background heat loads can be derived
based on simple probabilistic and
geometrical evaluations, as part of a
scenario analysis
Petrell AS Olav Tryggvasons gate 40 NO-7011 Trondheim Norway

Phone: (+47) 73805500 Fax: (+47) 73805501
post@petrell.no www.petrell.no
33

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18.09.

Seminar for PETROVIETNAM 18th to 19th September 2012

Scenario-specific fire loads versus

BLEVE Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion

Risk analysis - fires

Leakage statistics NCS

No. of leakages per platform year

Leakage statistics NCS

No. of leakages per platform year

Leakage statistics NCS

Risk analysis - fires

: leak rate [kg/s]

What is a dimensioning fire?

PSA (Norway) Facilities Regulations, Sec. 11

Examples on Fire DAE

Purpose of scenario description

Establishment of fire loads

Applying the given fire load (peak load

Fire heat load profile

All leaks from this flange

All leaks from this flange

Average leakage location

The yellow average leakage location presumes all leak points

Note: Illustration only.

Horizontal pipe and flange

~25% directed to the left

Long segments (piperacks)

P(exposure 36/fire in 42)

P(exposure 36/fire in 42)

Jet fire geometry

Jet fire geometry

Pool fire geometry

Surface area and thickness of layer

Example "average fire"

Release rate range

> 300 kg/s

Flame length Vertical jet

Operating conditions: Pmax = 44 barg, T = 26 C

Vapour mole fraction

Example: blowdown analysis of an

Example: blowdown analysis of an

Consideration: 80% of piping/vessels

Blowdown segment no. 5:

Jet fire location

Consideration: 80% of piping/vessels

Blowdown segment no. 5:

average leak location

Blowdown segment no. 5:

Blowdown segment no. 5: exposing

Work process scenario-specific

Establish/verify ignition probabilities

P(direction of jet towards 'j')

Work process heat loads and

Mutual exposure = 0,5

Work process heat load and

Identify risk reducing measures (per

Equipment count summary

23 128 128 136 108 108 108

Assessment of leak frequencies

Blow Down Segment

There may be differences in equipment count, for several reasons

Assessment of exposed surface