Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| October 9, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| October 9, 2012 Market Highlights (% change)
Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Nov12) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Dec12) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield
5676.0 18709.0 13583.65 1455.9 15562.0 1981.9 59317.2 8863.3 89.33 1773.50 3399.10 8180.00 476.4

as on October 8, 2012 Prev. day

-1.2 -1.2 -0.2 -0.3 -2.0 -0.7 1.3 0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -1.5 -0.9 -0.6

Highlights
IMF cuts global growth forecast to 3.3 percent for 2012. German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 18.3 billion Euros in August. IMF cuts Indias GDP growth sharply downward to 4.9 percent for 2012. German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 18.3 billion Euros in August. Japans Current Account was at a surplus of 0.72 trillion Yen in August.

WoW
-0.7 -0.6 0.5 0.8 0.3 2.7 -0.4 0.8 -3.4 -0.4 -2.6 -1.4 0.0

MoM
5.8 5.3 2.5 1.2 -3.3 3.0 1.6 -0.1 -7.5 2.6 1.2 1.4 -1.6

YoY
16.1 15.3 22.3 26.0 0.2 12.6 15.8 3.0 7.7 8.5 9.8 12.2 -9.2

Asian markets are trading on a mixed note anticipating hopes of stimulus measures to be announced in China overshadowing concerns of slow down after International Monetary Fund (IMF) cuts its global growth forecasts. According to IMF global growth is expected to slow down 3.3 percent in 2012, the slowest since the 2009 recession, and 3.6 percent next year. While, it has cut Indias GDP growth forecast sharply to 4.9 percent in 2012 from earlier estimate of 6.1 percent in July 2012. However it said that the growth could bounce back to 6 percent in 2013.

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index declined 0.2 percent taking cues from bearish global market sentiments and thereby rise in the risk aversion amongst the market participants. This led to increase in the demand for the low yielding currency that is DX. US equities also ended in the negative territory due to rise in the risk aversion as the European Finance Ministers met yesterday to resolve the sovereign debt crisis. The currency touched a high of 79.81 and closed at 79.62 levels on Monday.

99.99

0.1

0.1

0.2

6.0

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX)
79.62 52.54 52.76 52.76

as on October 8, 2012 Prev. day

0.2 -1.2 1.34 1.34

WoW
-0.4 -0.3 0.07 0.07

MoM
-0.9 5.2 -5.00 -5.00

YoY
0.6 -6.7 7.05 7.05

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated around 1.5 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which added downside pressure on the currency. Additionally, dollar demand from the importers also lead to fall in the currency. Also, strength in the DX acted as a negative factor for the Indian Rupee. The currency touched a low of 52.65 in yesterdays trade and closed at 52.638 on Monday. For the current month FII inflows totalled at Rs. 3,380.70 crores till 5 October 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 85,711.50 crores till 5th October 2012.
th

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Outlook In todays session, we expect rupee to depreciate taking cues from mixed sentiments in the Asian markets along with strength in the DX. Further IMF downgrading the growth forecast of India is likely to add to the depreciation of the currency.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
US Dollar/INR Oct12 (NSE/MCX-SX)

valid for October 9, 2012 Trend Sideways Support 52.5/52.2 Resistance 52.95/53.2

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| October 9, 2012

Euro/INR
Euro declined 0.5 percent due to rise in the risk aversion along with strength in the DX. Further, unfavorable data from the region also exerted downside pressure on the currency. The currency touched a low of 1.2935 and closed at 1.2969 on Monday. German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 18.3 billion Euros in August as against a previous surplus of 16.3 billion Euros a month ago. European Sentix Investor Confidence was at -22.2-mark in October from earlier decline of 23.2-level in September. German Industrial Production declined by 0.5 percent in August as compared to rise of 1.2 percent in prior month. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to trade with negative bias due to mixed global market sentiments and strength in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Oct12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 68/67.8 68.55/68.8 valid for October 9, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.2969 68.12 68.32

as on October 8, 2012 Prev. day

-0.5 -0.7 0.92

WoW
0.6 -0.9 0.44

MoM
1.7 3.7 -3.05

YoY
-3.0 -3.7 3.18

68.3

0.89

0.43

-3.09

3.19

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
The Pound depreciated by 0.7 percent yesterday taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global markets. Additionally, strength in the DX also added downside pressure on the currency. It touched an intra-day low of 1.6018 and closed at 1.6026 on Monday. British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor increased by 1.5 percent in September as against a previous decline of 0.4 percent in August. Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance declined by 15 percent in September from earlier decline of 18 percent a month ago. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect Pound to depreciate on the back of mixed global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Further, unfavorable economic data from the regions is expected to depreciate the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Oct 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for October 9, 2012 Support 84.1/83.6 Resistance 84.8/85.1

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.6026 84.16 84.52

as on October 8, 2012

Prev. day
-0.7 -0.5 0.34

WoW
-0.6 0.4 -0.68

MoM
0.2 5.0 -4.41

YoY
3.0 -10.3 10.45

84.52

0.34

-0.66

-4.41

10.45

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| October 9, 2012

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. It touched an intra-day high of 78.06 and closed at 78.32 on Monday. Japans Current Account was at a surplus of 0.72 trillion Yen in August from earlier surplus of 0.34 trillion Yen a month ago. Outlook In todays session, we expect Yen to appreciate on the back of rise in the risk aversion in the global markets which will cause increase in the demand for the low yielding currency. However favourable economic data from the region is expected to cushion sharp appreciation in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Oct 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for October 9, 2012 Support 67/66.66 Resistance 67.82/68.20
Source: Telequote

as on October 8, 2012 Last Prev day

-0.4 -1.7 1.67

WoW
0.4 0.1 -0.29

MoM
0.1 5.3 -4.07

YoY
2.1 -5.0 4.81

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX)

78.32 0.6707 67.42

67.41

1.60

-0.21

-4.09

4.78

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on October 9, 2012

Indicator BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y RICS House Price Balance Current Account BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks ECB President Draghi Speaks ECOFIN Meetings Manufacturing Production m/m Trade Balance NIESR GDP Estimate Country UK UK Japan Japan Euro Euro UK UK UK Time (IST) 4:31am 4:31am 5:20am Tentative 1:00pm All Day 2:00pm 2:00pm 7:30pm Actual 1.5% -15% 0.72T Forecast -20% 0.52T -8.3B Previous -0.4% -19% 0.34T -7.1B 0.2% Impact Medium Medium High Medium High Medium High Medium Medium

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