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# Name: Fan Zhang

EAS6490-HW4

## y(t) = 2 + 3t + 10sin(1t) + 5cos(2t) + 2cos(3t) + n(t)

Original and detrended time series are shown in Figure 1.

Fig. 1. Original (black) and detrended (red) time series. Note that y-axis limits for two time series are dierent.

1.1

## 1 and periods ( f , month) are 33.3 months, 20 months, 100 months.

Figure 2 shows the power spectrum (black) and normalized power spectrum (red). Without normalization, magnitudes of the power spectrum correspond to well the equation, with three dominant frequencies and have magnitudes of 2, 10 and 5. After normalization, the magnitude (y-axis) changes, but variations remain the same: the black and red overlap with each other; the peaks are the same: 0.01, 0.03 and 0.05. This demonstrates that normalization will not aect the shape of the power spectrum. If we change the x-axis from frequency (month1 ) to period (month), dominant periods (20 months, 33.3 months and 100 months) become more clear.

EAS6490-HW4

## October 22, 2012

Fig. 2. Power spectrum vs. frequency for the detrended time series. Normalized (red) and without normalization (black, ).

Fig. 3. Normalized power spectrum vs. period for the detrended time series.

1.2

## Power Spectrum of the Original Time Series

If the time series is not detrended prior computing power spectrum. The power spectrum (black line in Figure 4) is really not satisfactory, because the trend magnitude (approximately 3000) is several orders higher than the sin and cos components (Figure 1). Thus, we could not tell the dominant frequencies (black line in Figure 4). However, after normalization, dominant frequencies stand out.

1.3

## Comparison between Detrend and Without Detrend

Finally, normalized power spectra with and without detrending are compared (Figure 5). Both captured the dominant frequencies well, though magnitudes dier. From above comparisons, it is inferred that detrending and normalization are

EAS6490-HW4

## October 22, 2012

Fig. 4. Power spectrum vs. frequency for the detrended time series. Normalized (red) and without normalization (black). Due to the large range of power spectrum prior normalization, the logarithmic scale is used.

Fig. 5. Normalized power spectrum vs. frequency for the detrended () and original (red) time series. Since interested frequencies are all lower than 0.2, limits of x-axis is set to [0, 0.2] for better visual. important before further analysis is carried out in examining and interpreting geophysical time series. This becomes particularly important when the trend of the time series is so strong that it may dwarf components with cycles.

EAS6490-HW4

## October 22, 2012

HW Timeseries1.txt

Original and detrended time series are shown in Figure 6. The overlapping of two time series indicates that the data provided has been detrended. And that is why the black line are almost invisible in the gure.

Fig. 6. Original (black) and detrended (red) time series. Note that y-axis limits for two time series are dierent. The overlapping of two time series indicates that the data provided has been detrended. And that is why the black line are almost invisible in the gure.

2.1

## Case a. no window, no smoothing.

In this case, since there is no window and no smoothing. The degree of freedom (DoF) for each spectral estimate is 2. In F-statistics, F = s2 1 , s2 2

where s2 and s2 are variances of two time series. 1 2 In this case, DoF1 = 2 (the time series provided) and DoF2 = (the red noise). The F-statistics value for 95% signicance is determined from the table (from http://home. comcast.net/~sharov/PopEcol/tables/f005.html) with 1 = 2 and 2 > 1000. Thus, for the 95% signicance, the F-statistics value is 3.00. The result is shown in Figure 7. It reveals that the time series has a dominant frequency 0.1 month1 (a period of 10 month) that is above the 95% signicance curve. If this time series is taken as a geophysical time series, this period may be associated with seasonal cycle.

EAS6490-HW4

## October 22, 2012

Fig. 7. Power spectrum of the data (black), power spectrum of the red-noise (red) and 95% signicance curve of red noise spectrum (red, dashed). DoF = 2, F0.95 = 3.00.

2.2

## Case b. No window, 5-point running mean.

The 5-point running mean is shown in Figure 8. As expected, the power spectrum becomes more smooth. The running mean procedure increases the DoF to 10. Consequently, the F-statistic value F0.95 = 1.83. The dominant frequency appears more clear compared to that before the running-mean. However, running-mean decreases the resolution of the power spectrum, since the runningmean was also run on the frequency.

Fig. 8. Five-point running mean of power spectrum (black), power spectrum of the red-noise (red) and 95% signicance curve of red noise spectrum (red, dashed). DoF = 10, F0.95 = 1.83.

EAS6490-HW4

2.3

## Case c. No window, no smoothing. Ten subsets.

Without decreasing the frequency resolution, DoF is increased to 20 by dividing the time series into ten subsets. Correspondingly, F0.95 = 1.57. Power spectra of ten subsets are shown in Figure 9 and the averaged spectra in Figure 10. Autocorrelation at 1 lat of each subset was calculated. Similarly, a peak occurred at f 0.1month1 .

## Fig. 9. Power spectrum of ten subsets.

Fig. 10. Averaged power spectrum of ten subsets (black), power spectrum of the red-noise (red) and 95% signicance curve of red noise spectrum (red, dashed). DoF = 20, F0.95 = 1.57.

2.4

## Case d. Hanning window, no smoothing. Nine subsets.

A Hanning window with a length of 200 was applied when computing the power spectra for nine subsets (each has a length of 200, the same as the window). Practically, if the window length is shorter than the time series, ZEROs will be padded. 6

EAS6490-HW4

## October 22, 2012

The Hanning window is generated by: 2t 1 ))(0 t T ). w(t) = (1 cos( 2 T Since nine subsets were averaged, DoF = 18, F0.95 = 1.61. Power spectra of nine subsets are shown in Figure 11 and the averaged in Figure 12. Though not below the red-noise power spectrum, two lower frequency peaks (f = 0.05 and f = 0.01) arise in this case (Figure 12), compared to those in Figure 10.

## Fig. 11. Power spectrum of nine subsets.

Fig. 12. Averaged power spectrum of nine subsets (black), power spectrum of the red-noise (red) and 95% signicance curve of red noise spectrum (red, dashed). DoF = 18, F0.95 = 1.61

EAS6490-HW4

## October 22, 2012

ENSO

Original and detrended ENSO index are shown in Figure 13. The overlapping of two time series indicates that the data provided has been detrended. And that is why the black line are almost invisible in the gure.

Fig. 13. Original (black, square) and detrended (red) ENSO index. The overlapping of two time series indicates that the ENSO index provided has been detrended. And that is why the black line are almost invisible in the gure Figure 14 illustrates the power spectrum and ve-point running mean power spectrum. Two peaks above the 95% signicance curve were found: f1 = 0.02344 month1 , f2 = 0.03906 month1 . Correspondingly, periods are: T1 = 1/f1 = 42.7 months = 3.5 years, T2 = 1/f2 = 25.6 months = 2.1 years. However, we noted that a uniform autocorrelation ( = 0.72) for Nino 3 SST was used by Torrence and Compo (1998). They also employed the ve-point running mean. When the same procedures were applied to our ENSO index, we obtained dierent results and there is no periods that goes over the 95% signicance curve (Figure 15 compared to their Figure 6). One possible reason for this discrepancy is that probably our ENSO index data is dierent from Nino 3 SST.

EAS6490-HW4

## October 22, 2012

Fig. 14. Power spectrum of the ENSO index (black, thin), the 5-point running mean (black, bold), the red noise spectrum (red) and 95% condence curve for red-noise spectrum (red, dashed). DoF = 10, F0.95 = 1.83, = 0.9258.

Fig. 15. Power spectrum of the ENSO index (black, thin), the 5-point running mean (black, bold), the red noise spectrum (red) and 95% condence curve for red-noise spectrum (red, dashed). DoF = 10, F0.95 = 1.83, = 0.72.

References
Harrison, D., and N. Larkin (1998), El nino-southern oscillation sea surface temperature and wind anomalies, 19461993, Reviews of Geophysics, 36 (3), 353399. Kao, H., and J. Yu (2009), Contrasting eastern-pacic and central-pacic types of enso, Journal of Climate, 22 (3), 615632. Torrence, C., and G. Compo (1998), A practical guide to wavelet analysis, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79 (1), 6178.