System Dynamics and COIN Modeling v13

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A System Dynamics model of the FM 3-24 COIN Manual
CAPT Brett Pierson Warfighting Analysis Division J8/WAD

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Assess the Full Range of Military Operations
Warfighting analysis assess proficiency Multiple scenarios Wide range of variables within scenarios Alternative CONOPs Alternative campaign objectives Force equivalencies/force substitution Multiple analytical models Other force structure requirements assess sufficiency Daytoday demands: Forward basing, forward presence, lesser contingencies, homeland defense, theater security cooperation Peak demand of overlapping warfights Sustained surge demand of post-hostilities operations Force equivalencies/force substitution Analysis of Irregular Warfare challenges
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Analysis Framework
Tools
Workgroups Mission Analysis Data Models Scenarios Metrics Wargaming Interagency partners Senior Leader reviews Peer reviews Partner nations
Methodologies
Intellectual approach Rationale Physical assumptions Philosophical assumptions Tank guidance SPG tasks
Study Objective
Senior Leader insights
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Comparison of Traditional and Non-Traditional Analysis

Non-Traditional Campaigns
System Dynamics, AgentBased Models, Wargames, .
Conventional Campaigns
JICM, ITEM, Thunder, Structurally complex, limited geographic focus, kinetic domain, means are predominately Military Victory clearly defined, quickly understood, well-established Focused on Phase III Operations, approved MSFDs (MCOs) Physics based, authoritative sources identified, JMEM (historical, published, formatted) DoD centric, generally accepted; historic, repeatable validation Physical warfight outcomes, measurable and explainable 4
Characteristics Metrics Scenarios Data
Interactively complex; global focus; human, social, cognitive domain, means integrate all elements of National Power (DIME) Many on-going efforts to define Victory (JCS J5, SOCOM J3/J5) More than Phase III Operations, draft vignettes, wargames for event list Perishable, culturally relevant, soft aspects, questionable reliability, noJMEM equivalent Expertise outside DoD; exploring nonDoD models; still in research mode; structural validation, useful/credible Identify High Leverage areas and trends; insights on capabilities backed-out and often not DoD
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Models Results
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Analysis in Irregular Warfare

Triangulation Search in the Physical World
Sensor 1 Sensor 2
Uncertainty Space in the Analytic World

SME and Theory Experts Historic Analogy
Sensor 3
Analytic Models and Wargames
Uncertain distance with known error
Uncertain error with known distance
Efforts to refine the solution risk missing a fleeting opportunity to attack

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Why System Dynamics Modeling?

Characteristics of systems problems include:
Dynamicchanges over time and inherent system delays Tendency to overshoot and crash or oscillate Frequent over-reactions that drive exponential growth in costs Multiple players, diverse interests Interdependencies across borders and across disciplines Proposed solutions that appear simple and are usually wrong Very difficult to communicate!
System Dynamics Modeling can add value in several areas. It provides a platform for
Effectively framing issues and problems. Representing the essence of the interdependencies that underlie system performance; minimize policy resistance Reliably inferring the dynamics associated with a set of initiatives Communicatingcreating a single sheet of music to play
Excerpts from An Introduction to Dynamic Modeling with STELLA & iThink Workshop
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System Dynamics Disclaimer
Various software and consultants being used within DOD STELLA / iTHINK modeling software VENSIM modeling software PA Consulting / Boeing / VMASC / MIT consultants using a mix of commercial and proprietary software to develop SD solutions
Excerpts from An Introduction to Dynamic Modeling with STELLA & iThink Workshop
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System Dynamics Software
STELLA / iTHINK isee systems Barry Richmond Language of stocks and flows, graphics user interface Innovator in application to social systems STELLA in the classroom to study Hamlet in High School
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Building a Simple STELLA Model

Savings account Stock savings Flows in deposits and interest Flows out withdrawals Simulation what is the effect of various interest rates? How about deposits and withdrawals? Where is my leverage?
Most of the things that concern people are entities that accumulate or dissipate over time and we are concerned with trends. Unlike the simple example above, most dont have a closed-form solution
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Using a STELLA-Based Presentation

Begin with a cause and effect relationship diagram Expand into a model structure that captures all elements and assigns assumptions about relationships Troubleshoot model structure and validate against some sort of truth datahistorical data, research, or in this case doctrinal theory
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Potential Fractiousness of Society
Support for Insurgency
Neutral Populace
Support for HN Government
COIN operations must accomplish three tasks simultaneously: Influence insurgent-minded individuals to adopt a neutral disposition. Influence neutral-minded individuals to adopt a supportive disposition. Retain supportive individuals. These operations are conducted in an environment where tensions and hostilities between groups may destabilize a society and provide opportunities for insurgents This environment may suggest courses of action aimed at reinforcing or widening seams
An increase in Coalition funding will influence economic investment and development. A strengthened economy will influence movement from the insurgent- and neutral-minded groups toward the supportive group.
Potential Fractiousness of Society
Coalition Funding
Economic Investment
Economic Development
Neutral Populace
Developing and Restoring Essential Services
Breakdown of Essential Services Essential Services
Satisfaction with Essential Services
Coalition Funding
Expectations for Essential Services Potential Fractiousness of Society
Economic Investment
Time to Develop Essential Services
Neutral Populace
An increase in Coalition funding will significantly impact the restoration of essential services. Improvements in the provision of essential services will influence movement from the insurgent- and neutral-minded groups toward the supportive group.
Breakdown of Essential Services Essential Services Psychological Operations Effectiveness
Time to Develop Governance
Coalition Funding
Governance
Economic Investment
Neutral Populace
Perceived Security
Available Workforce External Material Support
A government that is established, recognized, and that maintains a secure environment is in a position to Send a positive, credible message of success to the populace. Provide an environment that enhances stable employment of the workforce. Persuade insurgents and neutrals to consider becoming supporters.
Insurgent Acts of Violence
An appropriate force mix, and correct operational Satisfaction with Funding Time to Develop Essential Services tempo, timing, and synchronization will have very Governance significant impacts on
Expectations for The restoration of essential services. Essential Services Governance The populaces perception of security.
Coalition
Economic Investment
The Governments and COIN forces credibility in Potential their communications efforts with the populace. Economic Fractiousness
of Society Development
Impact of Illegitimate Actions
Neutral Populace
Appropriate Mix of Effort and Use of Force Individual Competence, Judgment, and Ability to Execute Appropriate Strategic Emphasis Insurgent to Force Density Ratio
Perceived Security
Available Workforce External Material Support Intelligence Time to Develop HN Security Forces
Insurgent Acts of Violence Total Force Density
Understanding and Knowledge of Social Structures
Host Nation Security Forces
Coalition Force Density
Host Nation Force Density
Coalition Funding
Governance
Economic Investment
Neutral Populace
Perceived Security
Breakdown of Essential Services
Coalition Funding
Essential Services
Psychological Operations Effectiveness
Governance
Economic Investment
Neutral Populace Support for HN Government
Perceived Security
Available Workforce Intelligence Time to Develop HN Security Forces
External Material Support

The Logical Lines of Operations from FM 3-24
Coalition Funding
Governance
Economic Investment
Neutral Populace
Perceived Security
The Basic Information Ops Loop
Coalition Funding
Governance
Economic Investment
Neutral Populace
Perceived Security
The Comprehensive Information Loop
Coalition Funding
Governance
Economic Investment
Neutral Populace
Perceived Security
Coalition Funding
Governance
Economic Investment
Neutral Populace
Perceived Security
Coalition Funding
Governance
Economic Investment
Neutral Populace
Perceived Security
Coalition Funding
Governance
Economic Investment
Neutral Populace
Perceived Security
Coalition Funding
Governance
Economic Investment
Neutral Populace
Perceived Security
Breakdown of Essential Services
Coalition Funding
Essential Services
Psychological Operations Effectiveness
Governance
Economic Investment
Neutral Populace Support for HN Government
Perceived Security
Available Workforce Intelligence Time to Develop HN Security Forces
External Material Support

The Logical Lines of Operations from FM 3-24
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The STELLA Model - Interfaces
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The STELLA Model - Structure
Population
Governance
Essential Services
Security
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The STELLA Model
Neutral Populace
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Using the Model in Analysis

COA Option Adjust Mix of Effort and use of Force to focus totally on security
Technology-driven and reactive cost imposing strategy Ignores FM 3-24 recommended effort on non-security LLOs
1: Support for Government 1: 2: 3: 100
2: Support for Insurgency
3: Neutral
1: 2: 3:
1: Support for Government 100
2: Support for Insurgency
3: Neutral
1: 2: 3:
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Appropriate mix of effort set to a balanced focus on all Logical Lines of Operation
All effort focused on Perceived Security and Host Nation Security Forces, others zero
Waiting to start on the Non-Security LLOs until Security is established is an inherently flawed and self defeating strategy. The LLOs are too interdependent.
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Optimizing a Solution
1: Support for Government 1: 2: 3: 100 2: Support for Insurgency 3: Neutral
1: 2: 3:
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Results with lessons mix of effort on and in Iraq is that military One of the most importantbalancedin Afghanistan LLOs combined with slight reduction in External Material Support and success is not sufficient. Our efforts must also address economic development, slight reduction law, promoting internal reconciliation, good or at institution building, the rule ofin Potential Fractiousness of Society least decent governance, public services, training and equipping indigenous security forces, effective, strategic communications, and more.
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, 29 January 2008
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Coalition Input Optimized 3-24 case
Manning and Funding held sufficient through the entire period A sustainable peace we remain involved and remain invested as intervener
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Coalition Input Kilcullen case
Manning and Funding get ramped down as Host Nation capacity increases A durable peace one left to thrive as a better version of itself with less cost to us
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Coalition Input Ramped up effort case
Manning and Funding get ramped up as needed to face crises No peace mired in strife at the same cost to us as Kilcullen case over the period
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Coalition Input the long slow grind
Eventually the corner is turned assuming no return to major hostilities Requires persistent sufficient investment many times longer despite greater losses
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Is It Working?
..four IED attacks (Insurgent Acts of Violence) he will renew the contracts (Economic Development) is distrustful of the government (Psychological Operations Effectiveness) ...they will become members of the Iraq security Forces. (Host Nation Security Force Development) ..it is a security program, not an attempt to create armed militias (Perceived Security) political infighting (Governance) the money they receive (Economic Development)
..in this agrarian area where date palms outnumber buildings (Knowledge and Understanding of Social Structure) concerned citizens are being paid (Economic Development) (Governance) They are making their community safe (Perceived Security)
install security among all tribes, not just Sunni (Potential Fractiousness)
counter false perceptions (Psychological Operations Effectiveness)
Christian Science Monitor October 2nd 2007: Violence dropped dramatically Credit for success is given to efforts that directly map to FM 3-24
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Contextual Mapping
Perceived Security
Desired Outcome 3: xxx.xxxx Metric(s) !"##$ Significant Activities %$&'" '&$( )*+ ,-./ $ '&"$. Governance 012"& 34 $"0".-"5 Overall Status Status/Trend
!&$07 0", Desired Outcome 3: xxx.xxxx 819$.- ./$. '3"5 :"&(Status Overall 600$ 4$5. Metric(s) Significant Activities Status/Trend ;#7 1974 %$&'" '&$( )*+ ,-./ =$$&3 ./$. /$5 2""0 ;#7 </-."Services $ '&"$. 83' !"##$ Essential $&3107 012"& 34 $"0".-"5 43& $ 012"& 34 ("$&5 6 :"&( 0-9" >$&#"( 8$:-7530 !&$07 Desired Outcome ;#7 !#1"0", 819$.- ./$. '3"5 :"&(Status 3: xxx.xxxx Overall ./$. ? 231'/. 4&3 ( 8$7 600$ 4$5. Metric(s) Significant Activities Status/Trend %$&'" '&$( ;#7 1974 =$$&3 ./$. /$5 2""0 ;#7 </-." 83' )*+ ,-./ $ '&"$. !"##$ Host Nation Security$&3107 43& $ 012"& 34 ("$&5 Forces 012"& 34 $"0".-"5 6 :"&( 0-9" >$&#"( 8$:-7530 !&$07 Desired Outcome ;#7 !#1"0", 819$.- ./$. '3"5 :"&(Status 3: xxx.xxxx Overall ./$. ? 231'/. 4&3 ( 8$7 600$ 4$5. Metric(s) Significant Activities Status/Trend %$&'" '&$( ;#7 1974 =$$&3 ./$. /$5 2""0 ;#7 </-." 83' )*+ ,-./ $ '&"$. !"##$ Economic Development 43& $ 012"& 34 ("$&5 $&3107 012"& 34 $"0".-"5 6 :"&( 0-9" >$&#"( 8$:-7530 ;#7 !#1"0", !&$07 Desired Outcome 3: xxx.xxxx 819$.- ./$. '3"5 :"&(Status Overall ./$. ? 231'/. 4&3 ( 8$7 600$ 4$5. Metric(s) Significant Activities Status/Trend %$&'" '&$( ;#7 1974 =$$&3 ./$. /$5 2""0 ;#7 </-." 83' )*+ ,-./ $ '&"$. !"##$ $&3107 012"& 34 $"0".-"5 43& $ 012"& 34 ("$&5
600$ ;#7 </-." 83' ;#7 !#1"
Contextual Mapping helps metrics point towards the appropriate LLOs
6 :"&( 0-9" >$&#"( 8$:-7530 !&$07 ;#7 !#1"0", 819$.- ./$. '3"5 :"&( ./$. ? 231'/. 4&3 ( 8$7 4$5.
;#7 1974 =$$&3 ./$. /$5 2""0 $&3107 43& $ 012"& 34 ("$&5 6 :"&( 0-9" >$&#"( 8$:-7530 ./$. ? 231'/. 4&3 ( 8$7
What can you say about these except I hope they start getting greener
To be useful, metrics need a contextual mapping, which infers a framework

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Campaign Design
TRADOC Pamphlet 525-5-500 Commanders Appreciation and Campaign Design
Commanders Appreciation
Need to develop a shared understanding of complex operational problems Structured problem framing (and re-framing!)
Problem structure
well structured (structurally complex, linear): professionals agree on how to proceed apply the Science of War ill-structured (interactively complex, nonlinear): professionals disagree on how to solve this problem apply the Art of War
Topic of Army Stand-To e-newsletter, 1 Feb 2008
To access TRADOC Pamphlet 525-5-500 go to: http://www.tradoc.army.mil/tpubs/pamndx.htm

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A System Dynamics View of Campaign Design
Commander's Appreciation and Campaign Design

Art of War
Understanding is not a matter of capturing reality sufficiently correctly, [it is a matter of] constructing an interpretation that is sufficiently useful in dealing with reality Link near-term actions to the strategic aim of the campaign Mutually respectful competition of opposing ideas (candid and free)
Intuition and Genius (harmonious combination of courage, powers of intellect, and strength of will)
Operational Design
Agreement on a Shared Starting Hypothesis
1) Seeks to explain the qualitative relationships embedded within complex problems
Gap in "State of Affairs" between what is and what ought to be
Concern to lessen or a Military Action to achieve an end state
Complex Operational Problem (unstructured problem)
Operational Art
An iterative process that integrates ends, ways, and means across the levels of war
2) Arranges operations is space and time and identifies capabilities and resources
Campaign plans at each level should nest in the same way that tactical orders do
Resolving the natural tension between the formulation of strategy and the planning for its implementation
Simultaneously building and understanding of the problem through the creation of a conceptual solution or design Reframing as understanding expands
Giving a Complex Problem enough structure so that further planning can lead to useful action
Commander's Appreciation
Problem framingand its military use during a campaign
Operational Problem (well or medium structured)
Detailed series of executable missions that directly affect allies, adversaries, and the environment
Action(s) to be Taken
linear phenomena that can be controlled
professional soldiers can agree
professional consensus and authoritatively prescribed in doctrine
doctrine, training, and leader development
Analysis of the Mission (breaking it down into specified, implied, and essential tasks)
Detailed plan for action (blueprint)
Operational Engineering
Science of War
easy to control through technical reduction and a systematic method-based solution
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A Framework for Success

Three Completely Different entities The DoD; The USIP; and Dr. Paul Collier, an Oxford Economist with a lifetime of working aid issues in Africa
Safe and Secure Environment Rule of Law Stable Democracy Sustainable Economy Social Well Being Security Laws and Charters Trade Aid
Security Host Nation Security Force Development Governance Economic Development Essential Services
Since these disparate groups can agree on the problem statement and solution path, how are we in the USG working together to operationalize the answer?
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The STELLA Model Demo/Questions
Success will be less a matter of imposing ones will and more a function of shaping behavior a friends, adversaries, and most importantly, the Success will be less ofmatter of imposing ones will and more a function of people behavior of shapingin between.friends, adversaries, and most importantly, the people in between. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, 10 October 2007 Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, 10 October 2007
You don't kill or capture your way out of an industrial strength insurgency. Gen. David Petraeus, 14 September 2008
Neutral Populace
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System Dynamics and COIN Modeling v13

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UNCLASSIFIED

A System Dynamics model of the FM 3-24 COIN Manual

CAPT Brett Pierson Warfighting Analysis Division J8/WAD

Assess the Full Range of Military Operations

Comparison of Traditional and Non-Traditional Analysis

Characteristics Metrics Scenarios Data

Analysis in Irregular Warfare

Uncertainty Space in the Analytic World

Analytic Models and Wargames

Uncertain distance with known error

Uncertain error with known distance

Efforts to refine the solution risk missing a fleeting opportunity to attack

Why System Dynamics Modeling?

System Dynamics Disclaimer

System Dynamics Software

Building a Simple STELLA Model

Using a STELLA-Based Presentation

Potential Fractiousness of Society

Support for Insurgency

Support for HN Government

Support for Insurgency

Support for HN Government

Developing and Restoring Essential Services

Breakdown of Essential Services Essential Services

Satisfaction with Essential Services

Expectations for Essential Services Potential Fractiousness of Society

Time to Develop Essential Services

Support for Insurgency

Support for HN Government

Developing and Restoring Essential Services

Breakdown of Essential Services Essential Services Psychological Operations Effectiveness

Satisfaction with Essential Services

Time to Develop Governance

Expectations for Essential Services Potential Fractiousness of Society

Time to Develop Essential Services

Support for Insurgency

Support for HN Government

Available Workforce External Material Support

Insurgent Acts of Violence

Developing and Restoring Essential Services

Breakdown of Essential Services Essential Services Psychological Operations Effectiveness

Time to Develop Essential Services

Impact of Illegitimate Actions

Support for Insurgency

Support for HN Government

Insurgent Acts of Violence Total Force Density

Understanding and Knowledge of Social Structures

Host Nation Security Forces

Coalition Force Density

Host Nation Force Density

Developing and Restoring Essential Services

Breakdown of Essential Services Essential Services Psychological Operations Effectiveness

Satisfaction with Essential Services

Time to Develop Governance

Expectations for Essential Services Potential Fractiousness of Society

Time to Develop Essential Services

Impact of Illegitimate Actions

Support for Insurgency

Support for HN Government

Insurgent Acts of Violence Total Force Density

Understanding and Knowledge of Social Structures

Host Nation Security Forces