Analisis Kritis Model CGE Seung Rae Kim (Imtia Marta H.

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ANALISIS KRITIS MODEL CGE SEUNG RAE KIM :"KETIDAKPASTIAN, PREFERENSI POLITIS, DAN STABILISASI: KONTROL STOCHASTIC YANG MEMPERGUNAKAN MODEL MODEL CGE DINAMIS"

Ignatia Martha Hendrati* Models of Computable General Equilibrium ( traditional CGE) disregard uncertainty even when weared area like compilation of environmental model which fkll of uncertainty of economics. As comparison, most theory models control focussed at uncertainty effects. Merger of tradition compilation model of CGE and control can yield models with dynamics of eksplisit carefbl treatment and uncertainty. This handing out is continuation step to optimal control model merger with models of CC;E dynamic. This handing out show techniques benefit of CGE in theory application control and specify practical guidance line to policy maker in the field of newly. Besides this handing out also study relation between economic stabilization and fiscal policy device optimal environment in dynamic public balance framework of stochastic. Uncertainty, process adjustment of amount short term and preferensi political ( for example, excessive stabilization priority in industry ) allowed for to investigate what time directive adjustment of optimal economics to be governmental with target of policy eksplisit. Optimal Control solution can differ not only effect of differences in just elementary model structure or assumption, but also depend on uncertainty about level of parameters in economics. Is peculiarly indicated that economic stabilization performance can differ signifikan with preference 1 uncertainty of unsimmetrical politics in all sector of industrial. In such case, restructuring of components in compilation of economic model common CGE can identifjr policies in the world of having the character of stochastic which possible apply approach of compilation of theory model- control ( traditional macroeconomics)

Keyword: Optimal control, models of CGE dynamic, uncertainty, process adjustment, political preference, macroeconomics stabilization
* Staf Pengajar Fakultas Ekonomi & Pascasajana UPN "Veteran"Jawa Timur

I. PENDAHULUAN Sebelum mengevaluasi, membandingkan serta mengetahui kelebihan dan kelemahan model Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) dinamis yang dilakukan oleh Seung Rae Kim dengan Yaw peneliti-peneliti lain mempergunakan model sempa, ada baiknya ditelaah kebelakang dasar analisis model CGE yang berasal dari model analisis Input - Output (1-0) yang mempunyai kaidah-kaidah dasar serta perkembangan 1-0 menjadi Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) dan selanjutnya.1-0 sebagai konsep dasar analisis CGE juga memiliki kelemahan

dan kelebihan, serta aplikasi SAM di Indonesia yang dikenal dengan Statistik Neraca Sosial Ekonomi (SNSE) yang akan berkembang menjadi CGE statis dan dinamis dengan segala kelemahan dan kelebihan yang akan dipaparkan dibawah ini.

II. KERANGKA TEORITIS 1. ANALISIS INPUT OUTPUT Dasar Analisis 1-0 Daya tarik utama model 1-0 adalah menyajikan gambaran rinci mengenai struktur ekonomi pada suatu kurun waktu tertentu. Struktur ekonomi dapat mencakup suatu negara, daerah,