Commodities Daily Report

Monday| November 5, 2012

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narveker@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Vaishali Sheth - Research Associate vaishalij.sheth@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133
Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| November 5, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Freezing wheat MSP will crush farmers, says Punjab
Sensex

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Nov 2, 2012
WoW MoM YoY

Days after the Union Cabinet held back its decision to hike minimum support price (MSP) of wheat for the 2013-14 crop marketing season, leaders of Punjab and Haryana two of the countrys biggest wheatproducing states demanded the government should raise the MSP of wheat to compensate for the sharp increase in input costs of fertiliser and diesel. Punjab Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal had alleged the Centre was discouraging farmers in the state to grow wheat, which, Badal claimed, could create aglobal crisis. I am shocked. If, by chance, production of wheat goes down because Punjab farmers are discouraged from producing wheat; there will be crisis of wheat in the world. Punjab meets 60 per cent of the total wheat requirement of the country," Badal said. (Source: Business Line)

Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18755 5698 53.82 84.86 1674

1.04 0.93 0.29 -2.56 -2.33

0.70 0.59 0.49 -1.65 -2.15

-0.36 -0.37 2.74 -8.24 -5.98

5.93 6.97 10.51 -8.94 -2.91

Source: Reuters

Wheat exports from Govt stocks pick up on rising demand

Wheat exports from Government stocks have picked up even as shipments by private trade have slowed down on rise in prices and thin market arrivals. Total shipments have crossed three million tonnes since the Government allowed wheat exports in September last year. Bulk of the shipments has been done by the private trade, so far. The Government agencies such as PEC Ltd and STC Ltd have issued tenders for about one million tonnes for exports and have shipped over five lakh tonnes, so far. We expect the tendering process for two million tonnes to be complete by December on rise in demand, senior official at PEC said.(Source: Business Line)

Govt plans cash transfers to plug PDS grain leak

In a bid to check diversion of foodgrains to the open market, the food ministry is planning to launch a cash transfer system for poor families. The plan, a first, will be done under the public distribution system (PDS) in six union territories in the next three months. Officials sources told FE the cash transfer plan under the Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS) would be launched for the first time in Chandigarh, Puducherry, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep, Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu. Banks are making arrangements for families in these six UTs to have an account and the mapping of ration card holders to their accounts would be completed shortly, a food ministry official said. Under the pilot scheme, allocations of food grains (rice and wheat) under TPDS would be made at market rate or an 'appropriate cost' instead of the existing central issue prices. Cash subsidy will be provided to the beneficiaries in their bank accounts in advance to enable them to purchase the foodgrains at the higher rate from the fair prices shops, the official said.(Source: Financial Express)

Argentine farm leader blasts gov't on slow reforms

Investors would love to jump into Argentina's farm sector as it pushes to meet rising world food demand, but the government has resisted reforms needed to improve confidence, the new head of the country's top farm chamber said. Grain powerhouse Argentina is the world's No. 2 corn and No. 3 soybean exporter. Yet the Argentine Rural Society, or SRA, which represents the country's biggest farmers, has not met with the agriculture minister since the drought-hit days of January. Now the problem blighting the Pampas is an overabundance of rain that has bogged down Southern Hemisphere spring planting. The SRA's calls for an emergency meeting between the farm sector and the government to address the effects of three months of violent storms are going unanswered, according to Luis Miguel Etchevehere, who became president of the chamber last month.(Source: Reuters)

World coffee exports up 3% at 107.8 mn bags

Global coffee exports rose by 3 per cent to 107.8 million bags in the last coffee year, which ended in September, on the back of increased shipments from Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico among others, ICO said. Worldwide shipments of the brew stood at 104.7 million bags (of 60 kg each) in 2010-11 crop year (October-September). Exports in the 2011-12 coffee year registered an upward trend in Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico, Cote D Ivorie, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, etc, International Coffee Organisation (ICO) data said. However, the shipments of the brew declined in major exporting countries of Brazil, Columbia, Ethiopia and India, it added. In coffee year 2011-12, exports of Arabica totalled 66 million bags compared to 67.8 million bags last year, whereas robusta exports amounted to 41.8 million bags compared to 36.9 million bags in 2010-11. World coffee exports rose by 3 per cent to 7.94 million bags in September 2012 compared with 7.71 million in September 2011. The global coffee production has been estimated flat at 134.3 million bags in the 2011-12 crop year against the year-ago period as the shortfall in output in Brazil was compensated by Vietnam, Peru and Honduras. (Source: Business Line)

China 2012/13 corn output seen up 3 pct

MY (marketing year) 12/13 corn production, up 3 percent to 198 million tonnes, and lower domestic prices could lead to higher corn utilization in feed in substitution for wheat. High US corn prices, however, affects corn imports and impacts US DDGS competitiveness. Termination of the antidumping investigation and an interest in maintaining feed quality could sustain DDGS import interest. Wheat production forecast remains unchanged with low global supplies and high world price dampening MY 12/13 wheat import forecast to 1.5 million tonnes. Rice production forecast remains unchanged. Government support for grain production remains strong." (Source: Reuters)

Colombia likely to miss 2013 coffee production target

Colombian coffee production should pick up in 2013 though not enough to meet the growers federation target of around 10 million 60-kg bags or more as cash-strapped producers may be reluctant to fertilize, the coffee exporters association said. Colombia, the world's top producer of highquality Arabica beans, has missed production goals over the last few years as a combination of dry weather and then rains and disease hit growers in the Andean nation. (Source: Reuters)

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| November 5, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana spot as well as the futures corrected last week on expectations of better sowing prospects of the rabi crop. Increasing imports to meet the festive demand is also weighing on the prices. the spot as well as the Futures settled 5.98% and 5.51% lower w-o-w. Chana sowing has started in Maharashtra, AP and Karnataka and is expected to commence soon in MP and Rajasthan too. In Maharashtra, 1.09 lakh ha area has been covered so far which is only 8.8% of the targeted 12.32 lakh ha by the state dept. In AP, chana acreage stood at 41000 hectares as on 17 October, 2012 compared with 98000 hectares during the same period last year. CACP has recommended a hike in minimum support price (MSP) of gram by Rs.200 to Rs.3000 a quintal and Masoor by Rs.100 to Rs.2900 a quintal for upcoming 212-13 Rabi season to boost the production of pulses. As per the NCDEX circular dated 1 October, Special Margin of 10% (in cash) on the Long Side on all the running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Chana have been withdrawn with effect from beginning of day Thursday, October 04, 2012. Good rains in the month of August and September has raise prospects of Rabi pulses sowing in the coming days.
st th

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 4466 4506 Prev day -1.30 -1.10

as on Nov 3, 2012 % change WoW MoM -5.98 -0.13 -5.51 -1.92 YoY 30.79 33.79

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Nov'12 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX Dec contract

Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals

According to the Ministry of Agriculture 99.81 Lakh hectare area has been planted under Kharif pulses as on 21th September, 2012 compared to 108.28 lakh hectare (ha) same period last year. Improved rains towards the end of monsoon season have raised prospects of sowing. According to the first advance estimates of 2012-13 season, kharif pulses output is estimated lower by 14.6% at 5.26 million tonnes compared with 6.16 mn tn last year. Kharif pulses harvesting would commence from next month. According to the Fourth advance estimates of 2011-12 season, Pulses output is pegged at 17.21 mn tn in 2011-12 compared with 18.24 mn tn produced in the year 2010-11. While Chana output in 2011-12 is estimated at 7.58 million tones, Tur is estimated at 2.65 million tones, Urad is estimated at 1.83 million tones, Moong is estimated at 1.71 million tones. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch)
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Dec Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Nov 5, 2012 Resistance 4305-4350

4170-4220

Outlook
Chana futures expected to trade downwards today as higher imports is likely to easy supply concerns offsetting the festive demand. Also, good sowing prospect is likely to pressurize the prices. However, good festive season demand might provide support to the prices at lower levels. Going forward, prices may take cues from sowing progress of Rabi pulses. Although, short term trend remain positive for chana, we expect prices to come under downside pressure in the second half of November as supply pressure may ease amid shipments from Australia and Canada.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| November 5, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures traded on a mixed note last week. Prices remained under pressure as sugar mills have to sell their entire non-levy quota by the end of the month. However, good festive demand supported prices at lower levels. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.77% and 1.74% higher last week. Prices had declined considerable during the first three weeks of October on the back of higher quota. However, festive season demand at lower levels is supporting the upside in the prices in the past 3-4session. Decision over hike in import duty on white sugar and duty cut on raw sugar imports shall be taken only after 3 months after considering crushing progress. India, which is likely to produce a sugar surplus for its third year in a row, has decided to allow exports for another year, Food Minster K.V. Thomas said, reflecting confidence about domestic supplies in the world's top consumer of the sweetener. Mills and traders will have to wait for a formal order to export sugar in the new season that began on Oct. 1. Liffe white sugar settled down by 0.28% while ICE raw sugar closed 0.36% lower on Friday due to supply pressure from Brazil. Higher output and lower imports expectations for the 2012-13 season from China coupled with higher sugar surplus forecast for fourth straight year is keeping international prices under downside pressure.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolkata) Sugar M- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3729

as on Nov 3, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.80 0.77 MoM -1.08 YoY 12.38

Rs/qtl

3400

0.38

1.74

1.10

13.37

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeDec'12 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 537.1 432.22

as on Nov 2, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -0.28 0.36 -1.23 0.21 MoM -9.14 -9.87 YoY -20.45 -23.18

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Dec contract

Domestic Production and Exports

Crushing has started across Maharashtra and will commence soon in UP too. The area under sugarcane is estimated at 52.88 lakh ha for 2012-13 crop season, up from 50.99 lakh ha on same period a year ago. According to the first advance estimates by agriculture ministry, Sugarcane output is pegged at 335.3 mn tn, down by 6.2% compared to 357.6 mn tn last year. Despite of higher acreage, the producers body has estimated next years sugar output lower at 24 mn tn, down by 2mn tn compared to the current year. Sugar production in India the worlds second-biggest producer touched 26 million tonne since October 1, 2011. Industry body ISMA has estimated 6 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may export 2.5-3 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.523 mln tn for 2012-13. Thus, no curbs on exports are seen as of now.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Dec NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Nov 5, 2012 Resistance 3345-3360

Global Sugar Updates

Sugar output in Brazil jumped 57% during the first fortnight of October. th And thus output is now lower just by 3.7% as of 16 October at 26.7 mn tn. Unica expects the main center-south cane to yield 32.7 mn tn sugar output in 2012-13, down 1.2 % from the 33.1 mn tn forecast in April. Favorable weather since second half of September should allow harvest and exports to run on schedule despite a couple of days of rain last week that slowed crushing. Thus upside in the international prices may be capped. The International Sugar Organization said it expected a global sugar surplus of 5.86 million tonnes in the season running from October 2012 to September 2013, up from the prior season's surplus of 5.19 million tonnes. The ISO said the stocks/consumption ratio could rise to around 40 percent in 2012/13, from 37.6 percent in 2011/12. (Source: Reuters)

3290-3303

Outlook
Sugar prices may recover as demand is expected to emerge at lower levels. However higher quota is seen offsetting festive season demand which might cap sharp gains. Approval to unrestricted exports may benefit India only if the global sugar prices gain considerably.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| November 5, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean futures traded on a positive note for most part
of the week on good demand for soymeal. However, prices corrected towards the end of the week tracking weak international market along with domestic supply pressure. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.88% and 2.06% lower w-o-w. Soybean arrivals at MP that stood at 500000 bags on Wednesday, while in Maharashtra it decreased and stood at 70000 bags. In Rajasthan arrivals stood at 200000 bags on Wednesday. According to first advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 126.2 lk tn for 2012-13. However, drop in area under groundnut, sunflower & castor seed may lead to lower output of these oilseeds in 2012-13 which is estimated 9.6% lower at 187.8 lakh tn. CBOT Soybean settled lower by 2.02% on Friday on account of supply pressure. According to the latest crop progress report st released by USDA, as on 1 Nov 2012, US soybean harvest is 87 per cent complete as compared to 80 per cent last week and 78 per cent compared to 5 year average. According to the USDA October monthly report, Global soybean production is projected at 264.3 million tons, up 6.2 million mostly due to an increase for the United States. Ending stocks are seen down from 169 million bushels in 2011-12 to 115 million bushels in 2012-13 season. South American nations are expecting higher plantings and production this season. But Weather is not conducive for soybean sowing in both Brazil and Argentina by now. Production in Argentina is expected to reach 55-60 mn tn crossing record 52.7 mn tn in 2009-10. Brazil could also churn out 81 mn tn of oilseed and replace the drought-stricken US as the world's top soybean producer.
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Nov '12 Contract CPO-MCX- Oct '12 Futures

Market Highlights
Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3284 3276 698.3 665.6

as on Nov 3, 2012 % Change Prev day -1.59 -1.87 -0.75 -2.67 WoW -0.88 -2.06 -2.63 -5.36 MoM 4.82 2.09 6.05 1.73 YoY 47.86 45.51 9.60 3.57

Source: Reuters

as on Nov 2, 2012 International Prices Soybean- CBOTNov'12 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTDec'12 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1527 49.26 Prev day -2.02 -2.32 WoW -2.19 -3.34 MoM -0.31 -2.13
Source: Reuters

YoY 27.94 -3.13

Crude Palm Oil

as on Nov 3, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -1.41 -1.72 -5.20 -1.34

Unit MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Last 2370 428.5

MoM 13.78 2.39

YoY -20.07 -16.36

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil as well as CPO traded lower last week
settling 5.36% and 1.34% lower respectively tracking weak international markets. Worries over high Palm oil stocks in Malaysia as well as reduction in Indonesias export tax led to a correction on the BMD. This could further dent demand for Malaysian palm oil and exert pressure on the BMD palm oil futures. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Oct. 1-25 rose 11 percent. According to latest data from SEA, total vegetable oil imports in September were 993,912 tn, up from 897,018 tn in the previous month. As per MPOBs latest report, Malaysia's September palm oil stocks rose 17 percent to record high 2.48 million tons compared to previous month.

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4250 4090 Prev day 0.95 -2.36

as on Nov 3, 2012 WoW 4.42 -5.43 MoM 2.41 -0.39

Source: Reuters

YoY 37.21 28.41

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX Dec contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures corrected last week

tracking good sowing of this rabi oilseed. The Futures settled 5.43% th lower w-o-w. Mustard sowing as on 25 Oct was reported at 8.37 lakh ha as compared to 20.15 lakh ha in the same period last year. However, on the back of higher returns and improved rains, next years output is expected to be better. Prospects of better sowing shall keep sentiments weak in the medium term. Outlook Edible oil complex may trade downwards today tracking weak international markets. Also, arrival pressure before Diwali festival may pressurize prices at higher levels and thus prices may settled lower towards the end.. Export duty cut on CPO by Indonesia will make available cheaper palm oil for overseas buyers and refiners and could dent demand for Malaysian palm oil and weigh on prices.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Dec NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Dec Futures RM Seed NCDEX Dec Futures CPO MCX Nov Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Nov 5, 2012 Support 649-655 3245-3280 4065-4115 416-421 Resistance 670-676 3355-3385 4200-4235 432.50-437

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| November 5, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper futures traded lower last week on expectations of a higher output this season. Farmers are also trying to liquidate their stocks ahead of the commencement of arrivals of the fresh crop. Weak exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets remains weak due to huge price parity coupled with higher international supplies also pressurized prices. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 1.91% and 3.15% lower wo-w-. th According to the circular released on June 13 2012 the existing Special margin of 10% (cash) on the long side stands withdrawn on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Pepper from beginning of day Friday June 15, 2012. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,700/tn(C&F) while Vietnam was offering 550GL at $7,000/tn, Brazil Austa at $6,700/tn, and Indonesia Austa at $6,850/tn (FOB). As per circular dt. 29/06/2012 issued by NCDEX, Hassan will be available as an additional delivery centre for all the yet to be launched contracts. (not applicable to the currently available contracts-till Dec 2012 expiry).

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 41939 42635 % Change Prev day -0.16 0.05

as on Nov 3, 2012 WoW -1.91 -3.15 MoM -0.45 -2.40 YoY 21.43 21.19

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX Dec contract

Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till September 2012 is estimated around 80,433 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around 13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard). Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Dec Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Nov 5, 2012 Support 42000-42250 Resistance 42730-42950

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 18 tonnes while offtakes were 20 tonnes on Saturday. As per IPC, Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of 24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%. According to latest report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of year (2012). Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) On the other hand production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by 5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year. Production is lowest in a decade.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to trade lower today. Liquidation pressure from farmers as well as low export demand may pressurize prices. Good supplies in the international market from other origins may also keep prices under check. However, festive season demand is expected to support prices at lower levels.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| November 5, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a negative note last week as sowing of the crop has commenced and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days. Exporters are also not buying at higher levels. Sowing in Gujarat is currently lower by 15-20%. However, expectations of good export demand at lower levels supported prices in the spot. Festive demand is also expected to improve. Over the last couple of days, exporters were been buying actively due to escalated tensions between Syria and Turkey. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.84% and 1.75% lower w-o-w. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Around 45 lakh bags of Jeera are reported across India. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,800 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 4-5 lakh bags lower by around 3 lakh bags last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera SpotNCDEX(Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 14869 14173 Prev day -0.09 0.21

as on Nov 3, 2012 % Change WoW -0.84 -1.75 MoM 1.13 -0.51 YoY 3.88 3.17

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX Dec contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 3,500 bags, while off-takes stood at 3,500 bags on Saturday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 40 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 0.00 0.23

as on Nov 3, 2012 % Change

Outlook
Jeera futures are expected to trade downwards. Exporters may stay away at higher prices and may buy hand to mouth. However, prices may recover if the export demand increases. Festive buying may also lend support to the prices. In the medium term (October-November 2012), prices are likely to stay firm as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey.
Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures

Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 4950 5154

WoW -1.41 2.63

MoM -6.22 -4.87

YoY -12.20 8.73

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures recovered last week on expectations of revival of domestic demand in the coming days. Also, fresh export enquiry as well as orders boosted the prices. Stockists have good carryover stocks with them, capping sharp gains. Turmeric has been sown in 0.58 lakh hectares in A.P as on 10/10/2012. Sowing is also reported 30-35% lower during the sowing period. The Spot settled 1.41% lower while the Futures settled 2.63% higher w-o-w. Special Margin of 20% (in cash) on the Long Side in Turmeric November 2012 and December 2012 expiry contracts will be withdrawn with effect from beginning of day Saturday, Oct 20, 2012.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Dec contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 5,000 bags and 400 bags respectively on Friday. Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 201011. Erode is expected to produce 55 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of 29% as compared to previous year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Dec Futures Turmeric NCDEX Dec Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

valid for Nov 5, 2012 Support 14450-14620 4970-5020 Resistance 14850-14985 5130-5180

Outlook
Turmeric prices are expected to trade sideways today. Revival of domestic as well as export orders are expected to support prices. However, large stocks may pressurize prices.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| November 5, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas futures as well as MCX Cotton Futures corrected last week on higher arrivals coupled with weak international markets and settled 3.52% and 2.02% lower respectively w-o-w. Arrivals as on Oct. 28 for current season that began in October 2012 fell to 869,000 bales of 170 kg each, down from 1.3 million bales a year earlier. ICE cotton futures settled marginally up by 0.20% on account of short coverings.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 960 16000

as on Nov 3, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -2.19 -3.52 -0.31 -2.02 MoM -0.26 -2.02 YoY -7.08

NCDEX Kapas Futures MCX Cotton Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Cotton harvesting has commenced in US, in all 50% is harvested as compared to 38% a week ago, versus 56% same period a year ago. Cotton crop condition is 43% in Good/Excellent state compared to 42% st last week and 29% same period a year ago as on 1 Nov 2012.
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit Usc/Lbs Last 70.35 81.35

as on Nov 2, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW 0.20 -3.11 1.81 0.00 MoM -0.27 0.00 YoY -27.29 -29.20

Domestic Production and Consumption

As on 28 September, 2012, Cotton is being planted on 114 lakh hectares, down, as compared to the last years 119.6 lakh hectares. However, the acreage so far is at par with its normal area of 111.8 lakh hectares. According to the First Advance Estimates, Cotton production for 2012-13 seasons is revised upward to 334 lakh bales compared with 352 lakh bales in 2011-12 season. Also, on account of cheaper cotton available in the global markets, imports have more than double from 5 lakh bales to 12 lakh bales. According to the latest CAB report as on 04 October 2012, exports have dipped sharply by 46% to 7 million bales in the 2012/13 marketing year that began on Oct. 1 compared to 12.7 million bales estimated for 201112 season. The ending stocks figure, has been revised further upward to 3.4 million bales as compared to 2.8 million bales estimated for August 2011-12 season
st

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

Global cotton prices are mainly influenced by China, US and India.
Source: Telequote

USDA estimated US Cotton planting for the season 2012-13 at 12.64 mln acres as compared to 14.74 mln acres last season (2011-12). Ending stocks were at 4.8 mln bales (480 pounds/bales) with Production of 17.65 mln bales and exports of 12.1 mln bales were pegged for the season 2012-13. In its October monthly demand supply report, the Agriculture Department (USDA) raised its cotton crop for 2012/13 cotton crop season to 17.29 mln bales (prev 17.11) along with upward revision in end stocks 5.60 mln 480 pounds/bales (prev 5.30). Exports were down to 11.60 mln 480 pounds/bales (prev 11.80). China's 2012/13 cotton crop is estimated at 31.50 mln bales up from previous estimates of 31.00 mln bales given in September, imports 11.00 mln bales down from previous estimates of 12.00 million bales, consumption was pegged at 36.00 mln bales (down from prev 38.00 million bales), end stocks 36.61 mln bales (up from prev 35.51 mln bales)

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Nov contract

Outlook
Kapas futures in intraday is expected to trade downwards today as weak international market might put pressure on the prices. However, demand and procurement by CCI at lower levels, might restrict the prices from falling sharply and provide support to the prices. Also, Prices might take support as farmers are not willing to sell their produce at lower levels. However, fresh arrivals from all over India and higher global cotton ending stocks might cap the sharp upside in medium term.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Kapas MCX April Cotton MCX November Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Nov 5, 2012 Support 942-950 940-948 15720-15870 Resistance 968-975 967-973 16140-16230

www.angelcommodities.com