2QFY2013 Result Update | IT

November 5, 2012

Tech Mahindra
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT* 2QFY13 1,631 338 20.7 296 1QFY13 1,543 330 21.4 339 % chg (qoq) 5.7 2.3 (69)bp (12.5) 2QFY12 1,333 204 15.3 240 % chg (yoy) 22.4 65.4 538bp 23

ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 10,705 606 0.7 1043/537 88,536 10 18,763 5,704 TEML.BO TECHM.IN

`955 `1,070
12 months

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*exclude one-offs

For 2QFY2013, Tech Mahindra reported healthy set of results which were in-line with the expectations on the revenue front but the operational performance of the company exceeded our as well as the streets expectations. We believe the increased traction in non-BT accounts and consolidation of Hutchison Global Services (HGS, US$170mn annual revenue run rate) and Comviva (~US$70mn annual revenue run rate) will offset the decline in BT and will drive growth going forward. We maintain Accumulate rating on the stock. Result highlights: For 2QFY2013, Tech Mahindra reported USD revenue of US$299mn, up 6.4% qoq, aided by acquisition of HGS (continued US$13mn). In INR terms, revenue came in at `1,631cr, up 5.7% qoq. Despite having ~150bp qoq wage hike impact, the companys EBITDA margin declined by only 69bp qoq to 20.7%, aided by continuous cost optimization measures. The PAT came in at `296cr, down 12.5%, impacted by ~`69cr forex loss. Outlook and valuation: The management indicated that the company remains confident of growth from the non-BT business with it continuing to see a robust deal pipeline across geographies. The company expects to close some of the managed services opportunities in 3QFY2013. Also, the deal pipeline looks healthy in the US and emerging markets. But the management witnessed that the decision making cycle has become elongated and decision making continues to be extremely slow as customers scrutinize every aspect of expenditure. We expect a CAGR of 10.1% and 14.1% in USD and INR revenue over FY2012-14E. We expect a 19.5% and 11.1% CAGR in EBITDA and PAT of Tech Mahindra over FY2012-14E. PAT of Tech Mahindra and Satyam for FY2014 are expected to be at `830cr and `1,225cr respectively. Taking the new share count of 23.08cr shares (post merger of Tech Mahindra and Mahindra Satyam) into account, the consolidated EPS comes in at `89.0. We value Tech Mahindra at 12x FY2013E EPS of `89.0 and maintain Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `1,070.

Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 56.7 18.7 15.1 9.5

Abs. (%) Sensex Tech Mahindra

3m 9.1

1yr 6.8

3yr 16.8 2.6

25.4 52.8

Key financials (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)

Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2010 4,625 3.6 700 (30.9) 24.5 53.6 17.8 4.3 24.6 19.8 3.1 12.7 FY2011 5,140 11.1 643 (8.3) 19.5 49.3 19.4 3.7 23.5 16.9 2.6 13.3 FY2012E 5,490 6.8 1,095 70.4 16.7 88.2 10.8 3.1 28.7 13.1 2.4 14.5 FY2013E 6,603 20.3 1,232 12.5 19.8 92.9 10.3 2.4 23.7 16.2 1.9 9.8 FY2014E 7,150 8.3 1,353 9.8 18.4 102.0 9.4 2.0 21.0 14.0 1.7 9.4

Ankita Somani
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com

Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2013 Result Update

Exhibit 1: 2QFY2013 performance (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)

(` cr) Net revenue Cost of revenue Gross profit SG&A expense EBITDA Dep. and amortization EBIT Interest Other income PBT Income taxes PAT Minority interest PAT after minority interest Profit from associates Exceptional item Reported PAT Adj. PAT Diluted EPS Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) PAT margin (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research

2QFY13 1,631 1,034 598 260 338 48 290 23 (64) 203 25 178 178 119 296 296 22.3 36.6 20.7 17.8 10.9

1QFY13 1,543 968 575 245 330 42 288 24 (17) 247 59 188 188 150 339 339 25.5 37.3 21.4 18.7 12.2

% chg (qoq) 5.7 6.7 4.0 6.3 2.3 14.3 0.5

2QFY12 1,333 907 426 222 204 51 153 33 59

% chg (yoy) 22.4 14.0 40.2 17.1 65.4 (5.1) 88.7

1HFY13 3,175 2,002 1,173 505 668 90 578 47 (81)

1HFY12 2,626 1,761 865 419 446 84 362 56 105 411 90 320 1 319 198 517 517 39.2 32.9 17.0 13.8 12.2

% chg (yoy) 20.9 13.7 35.6 20.5 49.8 7.3 59.7

(17.8) (57.1) (5.6) (5.6)

179 39 139 1 139 102 -

13.5 (36.1) 27.5 27.9

450 84 366 366 269 -

9.5 (7.3) 14.2 14.6

(12.5) (12.5) (12.5) (61)bp (69)bp (91)bp (130)bp

240 240 18.2 32.0 15.3 11.5 10.4

23.2 23.2 22.6 466bp 538bp 624bp 47bp

635 635 47.8 36.9 21.0 18.2 11.5

22.8 22.8 22.1 401bp 406bp 442bp (63)bp

Exhibit 2: 2QFY2013 Actual vs. Angel estimates

(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA margin (%) PAT* Actual 1,631 20.7 178 Estimate 1,615 19.8 208 Var. (%) 1.0 92bp (14.5)

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Excludes share of profits from Mahindra Satyam

Healthy performance
For 2QFY2013, Tech Mahindra reported USD revenue of US$2993mn, up 6.4% qoq, aided by acquisition of HGS. HGS contributed ~US$13mn to the revenues (one-month contribution). On organic basis, revenues grew by 1.6% qoq. USD revenues from non-BT accounts grew by ~4% qoq (organic basis) while revenue from BT declined by 2.5% qoq. In INR terms, the revenue came in at `1,631cr, up 5.7% qoq. The management indicated the possibility of further decline in the revenues from BT account going forward because of continued restructuring activity in BT, though the quantum of decline in BT will only be clearer in the coming quarters. While the revenue run rate from BT has declined in the recent quarters, Tech Mahindras share of BTs wallet has gone up by ~2% during the restructuring period.

November 5, 2012

Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2013 Result Update

Tech Mahindra announced two large deal wins during the quarter, both in Europe, one with a TCV of US$100m and the other from UK ranging between US$70-80m.

Exhibit 3: Trend in revenue growth for non-BT accounts

210 200 190 187 7.3 188 177 0.6 180 1.5 16 200 11.3 12 8 4 0 (4) (5.5) (8) 2QFY12 3QFY12 Non BT
Source: Company, Angel Research

(US $mn)

180 170 160 150 140 130 120

4QFY12

1QFY13 qoq growth

2QFY13

Exhibit 4: Revenue trend for BT account

115 3.1 110
(US $mn)

4 2 0 (2.5) 104 (2.8) 101 (7.8) 99 4QFY12 1QFY13 qoq growth 2QFY13 (5.5)
(%)

110 105

(2) (4) (6) (8)

100

101

95 2QFY12 3QFY12 BT
Source: Company, Angel Research

(10)

During the quarter, the companys revenue from telecom service providers (TSPs) (~77% contribution to revenue) grew by 1.6% qoq to `1,260cr, while revenue from telecom equipment manufacturers (TEMs; ~6% contribution to revenue) declined by 2.4% qoq to `102cr.

Utilization level flat

The companys utilization level remained almost flat qoq to 74% in 2QFY2013. The companys overall headcount (organic basis excluding HGS) declined for the fourth consecutive quarter, as a result of rationalization in domestic employees and due to closures in certain projects. The management indicated that the company will continue with its just-in-time hiring policy and will hire laterals on a need basis. Including HGS, the overall headcount grew by 9,849 employees, taking its total employee base to 50,479.
November 5, 2012

(%)

Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2013 Result Update

Exhibit 5: Trend in utilization rate

12,000 10,000 8,000 74 73 72 2,071 544 (385) (1,627) 4QFY12 (65) (184) (544) 72 74 74 74 10,395 76

Net addition no.

4,000 2,000 0

(2,000) (1,255) 2QFY12

(1,447) 3QFY12

70

1QFY13

2QFY13 Utilization (%)

S/w professionals
Source: Company, Angel Research

BPO professionals

Operating margin surprises positively

In 2QFY2013, despite having ~150bp qoq wage hike impact on operating margins, the companys EBITDA margin decline by only 69bp qoq to 20.7%. Tech Mahindras operating margins were aided by continuous cost optimization measures and focus on improving profitability from lower performing projects. HGS integration also negatively impacted operating margins by ~30bp qoq. From 3QFY2012, full quarter impact of HGS will flow in. This will again have some negative impact on operating margins of the company as HGS (being a BPO) has margins that are lower than the companys average margins.

Exhibit 6: Margin trend

40 35 30 34.4 32.0 31.8 37.3 36.6

(%)

25 20 15 10 2QFY12 16.2 16.8

21.4 15.3 11.5

20.7 17.8

18.7 13.5 3QFY12 14.2 4QFY12 EBITDA margin 1QFY13 2QFY13

Gross profit margin

Source: Company, Angel Research

EBIT margin

November 5, 2012

(%)

6,000

Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2013 Result Update

Client pyramid
The active client base of the company stood at 126. The companys top 5-10 clients drove its growth in 2QFY2013 by registering 65.5% qoq USD revenue growth, aided by HGS. The company added one client in US$50mn+ revenue bracket.

Exhibit 7: Client metrics

Particulars US$1mn2mn US$2mn5mn US$5mn10mn US$10mn15mn US$15mn20mn US$20mn25mn US$25mn50mn US$50mn+ Active clients 2QFY12 19 14 13 6 2 2 2 2 128 3QFY12 22 13 13 6 2 3 2 2 130 4QFY12 22 10 13 6 2 2 3 2 130 1QFY13 18 10 14 6 1 2 3 2 130 2QFY13 16 14 15 5 0 1 3 3 126

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 8: Trend in revenue growth of top clients (qoq)

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 (10) (20) 2QFY12 BT
Source: Company, Angel Research

65.5

(%)

13.6 9.3

0.6 (2.5)

3.1 3.6

8.7 (0.1)

9.2

(5.5)

(2.8) (12.2) 4QFY12

(7.8)

(2.5) 2QFY13

3QFY12

1QFY13 Next 5 accounts

Next 4 accounts

Outlook and valuation

The management indicated that the company remains confident of growth from the non-BT business with it continuing to see a robust deal pipeline across geographies and expects to close some of the managed services opportunities in 3QFY2013. Also, the deal pipeline looks healthy in the US and emerging markets. But the management witnessed that the decision making cycle has become elongated and decision making continues to be extremely slow as customers scrutinize every aspect of expenditure. We believe the increased traction in Non-BT accounts and consolidation of HGS (US$170mn annual revenue run rate) and Comviva (~US$70mn annual revenue run rate) will offset the decline in BT and will drive growth going forward. We expect a CAGR of 10.1% and 14.1% in USD and INR revenue over FY2012-14E.

November 5, 2012

Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2013 Result Update

The PAT is expected to be supported by 1) the deep in-the-money hedges of 260mn and US$570mn with participation rates at 86.0 INR/GBP and 54.1 INR/USD, boosting forex gains for the company; and 2) healthy Mahindra Satyams earnings. We expect a 19.5% and 11.1% CAGR in EBITDA and PAT of Tech Mahindra over FY2012-14E. PAT of Tech Mahindra and Satyam for FY2014 are expected to be at `830cr and `1,225cr respectively. Taking the new share count of 23.08cr shares (post merger of Tech Mahindra and Mahindra Satyam) into account, the consolidated EPS comes in at `89.0. We value Tech Mahindra at 12x FY2013E EPS of `89.0 and maintain Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `1,070.

Exhibit 9: One-year forward PE (x)

2,500 2,200 1,900 1,600

(` )

1,300 1,000 700 400 100 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Price 23 18 13 8 4

Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: P/E includes share of profits from Mahindra Satyam 2QFY2011 onwards.

Exhibit 10: Recommendation summary

Company HCL Tech Hexaware Infosys Infotech Enterprises KPIT Cummins Mahindra Satyam MindTree Mphasis NIIT^ Persistent TCS Tech Mahindra* Wipro Reco Accumulate Buy Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Accumulate Buy CMP (`) 613 113 2,379 194 122 109 656 393 34 482 1,329 955 363 Tgt Price (`) 648 135 2,573 202 132 115 747 392 36 485 1,410 1070 421 Upside (%) 5.7 19.4 8.2 4.1 8.0 5.4 13.8 (0.4) 6.8 0.7 6.1 12.0 16.0 FY2014E EBITDA (%) 18.1 21.1 30.4 17.3 15.0 18.8 17.7 16.9 11.0 24.6 29.1 18.4 20.0 FY2014E P/E (x) 12.8 9.2 13.9 9.6 10.1 10.5 8.8 10.5 5.3 8.9 17.4 9.4 12.9 FY2011-14E EPS CAGR (%) 10.1 11.1 5.6 11.6 14.5 0.7 11.6 (0.5) (1.5) 15.1 12.0 5.0 7.4 FY2014E EV/Sales (x) 1.5 1.2 2.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.3 1.0 3.6 1.7 1.5 FY2014E RoE (%) 22.0 24.1 23.1 14.0 19.8 22.9 19.7 12.6 14.3 17.9 29.1 21.0 17.9

Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: ^Valued on SOTP basis,* EPS CAGR includes earnings from Mahindra Satyam

November 5, 2012

Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2013 Result Update

Company Background
Tech Mahindra was founded in 1986 as a joint venture between Mahindra Group and British Telecom (BT). Later on, it started servicing other external clients as well (solely in the telecom industry), though still it derives ~37% of its revenue from BT. In June 2009, Tech Mahindra acquired a 42.7% stake in erstwhile Satyam Computers (now Mahindra Satyam).

Profit and loss statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)

Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Cost of revenues Gross profit % of net sales SG&A expenses % of net sales EBITDA % of net sales Dep. and amortization % of net sales EBIT % of net sales Interest expense Other income, net of forex Profit before tax Provision for tax % of PBT Recurring PAT Share from associates Exceptional item Minority interest Profit aft minority interest Adjusted PAT Fully diluted EPS (`) (9) 3 700 709 53.6 FY2010 4,625 2,871 1,754 37.9 622 13.4 1,133 24.5 134 2.9 999 21.6 218 75 856 144 16.8 712 FY2011 5,140 3,403 1,737 33.8 734 14.3 1,003 19.5 144 2.8 860 16.7 100 117 877 132 15.0 746 44 (143) 4 643 786 49.3 FY2012 5,490 3,678 1,811 33.0 892 16.3 919 16.7 161 2.9 758 13.8 103 98 753 144 19.1 610 557 (68) 4 1,095 1,163 88.2 FY2013E 6,603 4,278 2,326 35.2 1,019 15.4 1,307 19.8 193 2.9 1,114 16.9 109 (39) 966 218 22.6 748 485 1,232 1,232 92.9 FY2014E 7,150 4,801 2,350 32.9 1,037 14.5 1,313 18.4 207 2.9 1,106 15.5 94 117 1,129 299 26.5 830 523 1,353 1,353 102.0

November 5, 2012

Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2013 Result Update

Balance sheet (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)

Y/E March (` cr) Equity capital Preference capital Share premium Profit and loss Other reserves Net worth Secured loans Unsecured loans Total debt Other long term liability Long-term provisions Minority interest Total capital employed Gross block Accumulated depreciation Net block Capital WIP Total fixed assets Investments Deferred tax asset, net Long term loans and advances Inventories Sundry debtors Cash and cash equivalents Loans and advances Sundry creditors Other liabilities Provision Working capital Total capital deployed FY2010 122 237 1,783 744 2,887 750 1,385 2,135 14 5,035 1,131 (527) 604 321 925 3,015 28 1 1,042 219 673 (461) (129) (277) 1,068 5,035 FY2011 126 260 2,198 768 3,351 640 543 1,183 392 146 16 5,088 1,287 (670) 617 61 678 2,870 64 415 1 1,036 267 726 (247) (558) (162) 1,061 5,088 FY2012E 128 270 2,998 655 4,051 600 527 1,127 430 189 5,796 1,514 (832) 683 167 850 3,427 100 338 0 1,317 242 645 (365) (608) (151) 1,081 5,796 FY2013E 128 270 4,144 655 5,197 500 482 982 480 209 6,867 1,670 (1,025) 645 197 842 3,956 140 338 0 1,411 582 773 (377) (600) (198) 1,590 6,867 FY2014E 128 270 5,402 655 6,455 400 303 703 510 209 7,875 1,870 (1,232) 638 227 865 4,510 170 338 0 1,528 858 837 (416) (600) (215) 1,992 7,875

November 5, 2012

Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2013 Result Update

Cash flow statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)

Y/E March (` cr) Pre tax profit from operations Depreciation Expenses (deferred)/written off/others Pre tax cash from operations Other income/prior period ad Net cash from operations Tax Cash profits (Inc)/dec in Sundry debtors Inventories Loans and advances Sundry creditors Others Net trade working capital Cashflow from operating activities (Inc)/dec in fixed assets (Inc)/dec in investments (Inc)/dec in other non current assets Cashflow from investing activities Inc/(dec) in debt Inc/(dec) in deferred revenue Inc/(dec) in equity/premium Inc/(dec) in minority interest Addition to reserves on amalgamation Dividends Cashflow from financing activities Cash generated/(utilized) Cash at start of the year Cash at end of the year 5 3 288 (50) 2,381 (320) 538 219 (140) (0) (377) (8) (14) (539) 295 (407) (2,580) (8) (2,995) 2,135 6 1 (53) (214) 315 55 841 104 145 (305) (57) (952) 392 27 2 (144) (61) (736) 48 219 267 (281) 0 81 118 38 (44) 1,280 (333) (557) 83 (807) (56) 38 12 (16) (394) (82) (498) (25) 267 242 (94) (128) 12 39 (170) 1,256 (186) (529) (20) (735) (144) 50 (87) (181) 340 242 582 (117) (64) 39 16 (126) 1,434 (230) (554) (30) (814) (279) 30 (95) (344) 276 582 858 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E 780 134 (9) 906 73 978 (144) 834 760 144 (99) 804 114 918 (132) 786 655 161 557 1,374 95 1,468 (144) 1,324 1,005 193 485 1,683 (39) 1,643 (218) 1,425 1,012 207 523 1,742 117 1,859 (299) 1,560

November 5, 2012

Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2013 Result Update

Key Ratios (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)

Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value Dupont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) Operating ROE (%) Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios( x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 5.0 77 7.6 74 6.5 78 7.8 78 8.3 78 19.8 22.2 24.6 16.9 18.1 23.5 13.1 14.1 28.7 16.2 18.3 23.7 14.0 16.3 21.0 0.8 0.9 0.2 5.0 0.3 24.7 0.9 1.0 0.2 7.6 0.2 22.3 1.5 1.0 0.1 6.5 0.2 27.0 1.3 0.9 0.2 7.8 0.2 23.7 1.2 1.0 0.2 8.3 0.1 21.0 53.6 64.0 3.3 221.4 49.3 60.3 4.0 257.0 88.2 95.3 4.0 307.2 92.9 107.5 4.0 391.9 102.0 117.7 4.0 486.8 17.8 14.9 4.3 0.3 3.1 12.7 15.5 19.4 15.8 3.7 0.4 2.6 13.3 19.7 10.8 10.0 3.1 0.4 2.4 14.5 15.7 10.3 8.9 2.4 0.4 1.9 9.8 15.3 9.4 8.1 2.0 0.4 1.7 9.4 14.2 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E

November 5, 2012

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Tech Mahindra | 2QFY2013 Result Update

Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered

Tech Mahindra No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to -15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

November 5, 2012

11