Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 17, 2012

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narveker@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Vaishali Sheth - Research Associate vaishalij.sheth@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133
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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 17, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Wheat acreage shrinks by 18% to 4.96 mn hectares so far
The area sown under Wheat shrunk by 18% to 4.96 million hectares so far in this rabi season compared to the previous season, latest data from agriculture ministry said. Wheat was sown in 6.03 million hectares till November 16 in the previous rabi season. "Less area under wheat has been reported from Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Maharashtra," an official statement said. The area under coarse cereals like ragi, jowar, bajra, etc has been marginally higher at 3.54 million hectares so far this season compared to 3.53 million hectares during the same period in the last rabi season. Pulses acreage declined by 17% to 6.35 million hectares compared to 7.61 million hectares in the period under review. The area under oilseeds was down by 8% to 4.69 million hectares so far this season against 5.08 million hectares in the year-ago period. The total area under all major rabi crops was lagging by 12% at 19.59 million hectares so far from 22.31million hectare in the year-ago period. The Agriculture Ministry expects production of 120.5 million tonnes of foodgrains during the rabi (winter) season. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Nov 16, 2012

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18309 5574 55.17 86.67 1714

-0.88 -1.01 0.93 1.43 0.06

-2.00 -1.97 1.04 0.70 -0.92

-2.16 -1.99 4.11 -5.64 -1.25

8.45 9.97 8.96 -12.78 -3.78

Source: Reuters

Centre seeks States views on sugar decontrol report

Speeding up work to decide on decontrolling the sugar sector, the Centre has sought the views of the state governments on the Rangarajan report by the month-end. Sugar is a regulated sector in the country. The sector is controlled by the government right from production through marketing of the commodity. We have written to the state governments to give their views on the Rangarajan report on sugar decontrol, a senior Food Ministry official told PTI. the consensus of the state governments on the report is vital. The states have been asked to send their views by end of the current month, the official said. The report on sugar sector decontrol, prepared by PMEAC Chairman C Rangarajan-led panel of eight members, suggests scrapping of major government controls on the sugar sector as part of the reform. (Source: Business Line)

FCI to sell 3 mn tn wheat in open market

Food Corporation of India today said it will sell immediately 3 million tonnes of wheat to bulk consumers in the open market in an effort to bring down prices. Last week, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) had approved sale of 6.5 million tonnes of wheat under the open market sale scheme (OMSS) through the tender process. Out of 6.5 million tonnes of wheat approved for OMSS, FCI will immediately release 3 million tonnes for bulk consumers, A minimum 25,000 tonnes of wheat will be released for smaller States such as Himachal Pradesh and a maximum of 1 lakh tonnes to big States every week. FCI will issue weekly tenders and the base price will be the MSP and local tax and transportation charges, he added. (Source: Business Line)

US will not ease corn ethanol mandate

The White House on Friday rejected requests to halt a government mandate to blend billions of gallons of corn-based ethanol into US petrol supplies, keeping alive a big factor in the bull market for food commodities. State governors allied with livestock and poultry producers petitioned to waive the Renewable Fuel Standard, as the worst drought in half a century scorched the US corn crop and sent prices to record highs. However, the US Environmental Protection Agency turned down the call, its second such refusal since a 2007 law prescribed rising volumes of biofuel in the national motor fuel supply. We recognise that this years drought has created hardship in some sectors of the economy, particularly for livestock producers, said Gina McCarthy, an EPA assistant administrator. (Source: Financial Times)

Rains boost maize prospects; poultry feed makers active

Rains caused by cyclone Nilam in the first week of November have boosted maize prospects in Karnataka. According to the Karnataka Agriculture Department, maize coverage for rabi is 1.06 lakh hectares. Coverage upto October 8 is 0.11 lakh hectares against normal coverage of 0.09 lakh hectares. With good prospect of the crop in the State, the prices are firm and are currently trading Rs 100 more than last year prices. Across the State, prices are at Rs 1,230-1,260 a quintal, B.V. Gopal Reddy, Vice-President, Karnataka Maize Merchants Association, told Business Line. This year, Bangalore has seen heavy arrivals and prices are also higher. Due to good demand from poultry feed makers, prices are ruling higher at Rs 1,360-1,380 . Reddy said, The early sown maize is slowly entering the market in Bangalore. (Source: Business Line)

Canada farmers tiptoe into wheat market, sell canola briskly

Canadian farmers are keeping their bins of newly harvested wheat locked as they cautiously ponder their first sales outside a marketing monopoly since World War 2, while strong demand has pried much of this year's disappointing canola crop off farms. Farmers have only sold an estimated 20 to 35 percent of the 2012/13 harvest of 26.7 million tonnes for autumn or later delivery, said Gord Flaten, vice-president of grain procurement for CWB, the former monopoly marketer known as the Canadian Wheat Board. "I think there's a bit of uncertainty, and I think there is a bullish market view as well, which is a big factor," Flaten said. "If you believe prices are going to go higher, you're going to hold off on committing." A Canadian grain handling source estimated farmer wheat commitments between 30 and 40 percent of the total crop. For the first time in seven decades, Western Canadian farmers can sell their wheat and barley for export or human consumption to any buyer, not just through the Wheat Board. (Source: Reuters)

Maharashtra cane farmers firm on prolonging fight on price issue

Sugarcane farmers in Maharashtra are planning a prolonged agitation. They have decided to stick to their demand of Rs 3,000 a tonne for sugarcane from the cooperative mills. The agitation, which commenced on Monday, has already led to the death of two farmers in police firing. Public property worth lakhs of rupees has been destroyed and normal life in Sangli, Satara and Kolhapur districts has been completely thrown out of gear. Almost 60 per cent of the States sugarcane production is from these three districts. The 30 most profitable cooperative mills are also located in these three districts. Due to the agitation and farmers militant activities they have also shut down their operations. (Source: Business Line)

Rs 21 crore relief for cotton farmers

After much delay the state government has released Rs 21.18 crore as relief package for cotton growers of the yawatmal district. The state government had sanctioned a special relief package for cotton and soyabean farmers of the state last year. Though a major share of the package was distributed a sum of Rs 24.77 crore was yet to be paid to some beneficiaries. (Source: Business Line)

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 17, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures and spot traded in a rangebound manner with a negative bias yesterday and 0.29% and 0.3% lower on Friday on account of subdued trading activities. Overall demand for chana will be subdued in the coming days while supplies are expected to ease amid higher shipments. Except for Wheat, minimum support price of all other Rabi crops has been increased by CCEA for 2012-13 season. MSP of Chana/Gram is raised by Rs 200 per qtl for 2012-13 season to Rs 3000. Higher returns and favorable soil condition will definitely boost acreage in the coming season. Although overall pulses sowing are lagging by 20% to 37.23 lakh ha till 9 Nov, Chana sowing is up Maharashtra and AP.
th

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 4587 4688 Prev day -0.29 -0.32

as on Nov 16, 2012 % change WoW MoM 0.25 -1.36 2.27 -0.83 YoY 43.33 50.21

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Nov'12 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX Dec contract

In Maharashtra, Chana sowing is completed on 4.6 lakh hectares as on 9 November, which is 37.5% of the targeted 12.32 lakh ha, and up by 66% compared to last year. In AP Chana sowing is up by 41% to 3.81 lakh ha. (State Farm Departments) As per the NCDEX circular dated 9 November, the pre expiry margin on Chana November 2012 contract has been increased from the existing 3% to 7% for last 5 trading days increased on a daily basis on both buy and sell sides. In Rajasthan, the third largest Chana producing states, sowing is lagging behind by almost 55% and stands at 5.45 lakh hectares as on th 9 November, 2012.
th

th

The Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP) has suggested 10 per cent import duty on pulses to encourage domestic production. in the first six months of the new fiscal that is from April to September this year, imports were an estimated 12 lakh tonnes.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Dec Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Nov 17, 2012 Resistance 4380-4405

Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals

Improved rains towards the end of monsoon season coupled with hike in MSP have raised prospects of Chana sowing in the 2012-13 season. Also, farm ministry has targeted 7.9 mn tn chana output for 2012-13 season, higher compared to 7.58 mn tn in 2011-12. According to the Ministry of Agriculture 99.81 Lakh hectare area has been planted under Kharif pulses in 2012-13 compared to 108.28 lakh hectare (ha) in the previous year. According to the first advance estimates of 2012-13 season, kharif pulses output is estimated lower by 14.6% at 5.26 million tonnes compared with 6.16 mn tn last year. Kharif pulses harvesting would commence from next month. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch)

4230-4290

Outlook
Chana futures may remain under downside pressure on expectations of ease in supplies amid higher shipments coupled with subdued demand. Going forward, prices may also take cues from sowing progress of Rabi pulses which is expected to increase in the coming days.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 17, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar Futures settled higher by 0.18% as delay in cane crushing in the key producing states supported the upside. Also, hike in cane prices demanded by farmers is fuelling up the prices. However, higher non-levy quota has kept spot market prices under pressure. Usually most factories in Maharashtra, the top sugar producer in the country, start cane crushing by the first week of November, but it has been delayed this year as farmers and mills have not yet agreed on cane prices. The sugar unions are demanding Rs 3000 per qtl. In UP too crushing normally starts in the first week of November, but this year also crushing is delayed due to disputes over cane pricing. Despite festival season, prices remained under check this season as government has released higher quota of 40 lakh tonnes for October and November, compared to 34.6 lakh tonnes during 2011. Liffe white sugar as well as ICE raw sugar closed higher on Friday by 0.53% and 0.37% on account of short covering at lower levels. Higher pace of crushing in Brazil Higher output and lower imports expectations for the 2012-13 season from China coupled with higher sugar surplus forecast for fourth straight year has led to a sharp decline in international sugar prices during the past few weeks.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3444

as on Nov 16, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.15 -0.40 MoM -1.43 YoY 11.51

Rs/qtl

3458

0.20

2.22

4.57

16.67

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMar'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 509.3 425.56

as on Nov 16, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -4.48 0.58 -3.81 0.47 MoM -8.28 -4.77 YoY -18.47 -20.51

Source: Reuters

Domestic Production and Exports

According to the first advance estimates by agriculture ministry, Sugarcane output is pegged at 335.3 mn tn, down by 6.2% compared to 357.6 mn tn last year. Despite of higher acreage, the producers body has estimated next years sugar output lower at 24 mn tn, down by 2mn tn compared to the current year. Sugar production in India the worlds second-biggest producer touched 26 million tonne since October 1, 2011. Industry body ISMA has estimated 6 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may export 2.5-3 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.523 mln tn for 2012-13. Thus, no curbs on exports are seen as of now.

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Dec contract

Source: Telequote

Global Sugar Updates

Sugar output in Brazil jumped 57% during the first fortnight of October. Thus, sugar output in brazil which was lower compared to last year since the beginning of the crushing season in May, is now up marginally by 0.1% at 29.3 mn tn. Brazil exported 3.998 million tons of sugar, raw value, in October up from 2687 million tons in September. Brazil has exported only 15.59 million tons of sugar this year till October which was 17.17 million tons, raw value, last year same period. The International Sugar Organization said it expected a global sugar surplus of 5.86 million tonnes in the season running from October 2012 to September 2013, up from the prior season's surplus of 5.19 million tonnes. The ISO said the stocks/consumption ratio could rise to around 40 percent in 2012/13, from 37.6 percent in 2011/12. (Source: Reuters)

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Dec NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Nov 17, 2012 Resistance 3354-3368

3308-3321

Outlook
Sugar prices may trade higher as delayed crushing in key sugar producing states might support the further upside. However, sharp upside might be capped on back of sufficient supplies due to higher non-levy quota.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 17, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean futures traded with a negative bias yesterday of
a good arrivals of the soybean crop. Prices also corrected tracking weaker international markets The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.7% and 0.97% lower respectively on Friday. Arrivals were lower considerably during the last week at around 340000 bags on Saturday. Soy meal exports during October are down 49,840 tn in October, the seventh consecutive month of fall in the current fiscal year, from 223,594 tn a year ago. This is because; most export commitments were done for forward trade like Nov-Dec amid uncertainty over supplies in October. According to first advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 126.2 lakh tn for 2012-13.

Market Highlights
Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3258 3215 702.3 691.7

as on Nov 16, 2012 % Change Prev day -0.70 -0.97 -0.31 -0.35 WoW -2.63 -1.92 0.95 1.35 MoM 0.59 -2.84 2.11 1.91 YoY 45.77 42.92 9.88 7.72

Source: Reuters

International Markets
CBOT Soybean settled lower by 1.34% on reports that China has cancelled 10 cargoes of US Soy scheduled for delivery in December and January. Also, prospects of bumper production in south America along with higher supplies in US pressurized prices. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported the U.S. soybean crush for October at 153.536 million bushels, the largest monthly figure since January 2010 and the highest for October since 2009. According to the USDA November monthly report, The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday raised its estimate for soybean production by 4% from its forecast last month, saying that rainfall late in the growing season softened the impact of the U.S. drought. Area and production in Argentina for MY 2012-13 are maintained at 19.7 million hectares and 55 million tonnes, respectively. Brazil's government on 8 Nov 2012 edged up its forecast for a record 2012/13 soybean crop to between 80.1 and 83 million tonnes, despite concerns after dry October weather and planting delays
th

as on Nov 16, 2012 International Prices Soybean- CBOTNov'12 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTDec'12 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1383 47.05 Prev day -1.34 -0.86 WoW -4.73 -1.51 MoM -8.35 -7.80 YoY 16.46 -10.35

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil

as on Nov 16, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW 9.77 -0.51 4.94 1.83

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Nov '12 Contract CPO-MCX- Nov '12 Futures

Last 2360 433.2

MoM -1.95 2.17

YoY -27.47 -15.57

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4238 4225 Prev day -1.45 -0.31

as on Nov 16, 2012 WoW -0.41 0.79 MoM 0.30 -0.33

Source: Reuters

YoY 35.01 31.87

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil as well as MCX CPO traded on a
negative note yesterday and settled lower by 0.35% and 0.51% tracking the weak international BMD prices. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Nov. 1-15 were 769,087 tonnes, down 0.1 percent from 769,534 tonnes exported in the Oct. 1-15 period. According to latest data from SEA, total vegetable oil imports in September were 993,912 tn, up from 897,018 tn in the previous month. As per MPOBs latest report, Malaysia's September palm oil stocks rose 17 percent to record high 2.48 million tons compared to previous month.

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX Dec contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Rm seed futures settled lower by 0.31%

yesterday tracking weakness in the entire edible oil pack. However, supply tightness amid strong demand restricted any sharp th corrections. Rabi oilseeds sowing as on 10 November was reported at 43.21 lakh ha as compared to 35.18 lakh ha in the same period last year. MSP for Mustard seed is increased by 20% from Rs 2500/Quintal to Rs 3000/Quintal for 2012-13 season.

Outlook
Edible oil complex may trade on a negative note today on account of good supplies in the domestic markets. Also, weak international markets may keep prices under check. However, higher crushing led by robust demand soy meal in the domestic as well as global markets may restrict a sharp downside.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Dec NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Dec Futures RM Seed NCDEX Dec Futures CPO MCX Nov Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Nov 17, 2012 Support 666-673 3146-3192 4200-4250 423-428 Resistance 685-689 3278-3302 4335-4368 437-441

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 17, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper futures trade on a bearish note yesterday hitting the 4% lower circuit yesterday on reports that FMC has launched probe into complaints against pepper market movement. Also expectations of better output in the domestic as well as the international markets pressurized prices. Farmers are trying to liquidate their stocks ahead of the commencement of arrivals of the fresh crop. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets remains weak due to huge price parity. However, there is good festive as well as winter demand. The Spot as well as Dec Futures settled 1.89% and 3.4% lower on Friday. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,200/tn(C&F) while Vietnam was offering Austa at $7,000/tn, Brazil Austa at $6,700/tn, and Indonesia Austa at $6,500/tn (FOB).

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 40385 40025 % Change Prev day -1.89 -3.40

as on Nov 16, 2012 WoW -2.45 -4.61 MoM -4.84 -8.01 YoY 15.07 11.83

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX Dec contract

Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till September 2012 is estimated around 80,433 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around 13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard). Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Dec Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Nov 17, 2012 Support 38390-38620 Resistance 39420-39700

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 3 tonnes while offtakes were 2 tonnes on Friday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up by 12.7% compared with 2.98 lk tn in 2011. Indonesian pepper output Is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to previous estimates, report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of year (2012). Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) On the other hand production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by 5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year. Production is lowest in a decade.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to trade downwards today. Liquidation pressure from farmers as well as low export demand may pressurize prices. Good supplies in the international market from other origins may also keep prices under check. However, festive season as well as winter demand may support prices at lower levels.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 17, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures corrected for the third consecutive session yesterday on long liquidation. The sowing of the crop is going on and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days, thus pressuring prices. Sowing in Gujarat is currently lower by 15-20%. Festive demand is also expected to improve. Exporters have been buying due to tensions between Syria and Turkey. The spot remained closed due to Diwali while the December Futures settled 1.98% lower on Friday. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,850 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 4-5 lakh bags lower by around 3 lakh bags last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera SpotNCDEX(Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 15064 14390 Prev day 0.00 -1.98

as on Nov 16, 2012 % Change WoW 0.18 -1.64 MoM -0.95 -6.95 YoY 6.29 7.91

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX Dec contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 8,000 bags, while off-takes stood at 8,000 bags on Saturday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 40 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 0.00 -0.93

as on Nov 16, 2012 % Change

Outlook
Jeera futures are expected to trade downwards today. Prices may correct as farmers are liquidating their stocks for want of cash. However, sharp downside may be capped due to export demand. In the medium term (November-December 2012), prices are likely to stay firm as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey.
Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 5062 5352

WoW 0.00 -0.78

MoM 0.81 1.52

YoY -5.90 18.25

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures corrected yesterday extending previous days losses on account of long liquidation. Also, weak overseas demand pressurized prices. Stockists have good carryover stocks with them. Turmeric has been sown in 0.58 lakh hectares in A.P as on 10/10/2012. Sowing is also reported 30-35% lower during the sowing period. The Spot as remained closed on account of Diwali while the December Futures settled 3.41% lower on Friday. Production, Arrivals and Exports Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 10,000 bags and 700 bags respectively on Friday. Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 201011. Erode is expected to produce 55 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of 29% as compared to previous year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric prices are expected to trade on a negative note today on account of good carryover stocks with the stockists. However, good demand from North India coupled with low arrivals in Erode mandi is expected to support prices. Traders also expect export orders to resume in the coming days.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Dec contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Dec Futures Turmeric NCDEX Dec Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Nov 17, 2012

Support 14430-14620 4950-5020 Resistance 14900-15015 5160-5220

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 17, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas futures settled lower on Friday after recovering in the past two sessions as pace in arrivals across the India in pressurizing the prices. As on 4th November 2012, 13.02 lakh bales of Cotton has arrived so far, down by 29% compared to last year 18.57 lakh bales during the same period. ICE cotton futures corrected by 1.66% yesterday due to sufficient supplies. Also, weakness in the overall global economic situation kept prices under downside pressure Cotton harvesting has commenced in US, in all 64% is harvested as compared to 50% a week ago, versus 68% same period a year ago. Cotton crop condition is 43% in Good/Excellent state compared to 29% th same period a year ago as on 6 Nov 2012.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 966.5 16200

as on Nov 16, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -1.13 -0.31 -0.12 0.56 MoM -2.77 0.56 YoY #N/A -3.69

NCDEX Kapas Futures MCX Cotton Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit Usc/Lbs Last 72.73 81.35

as on Nov 16, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -1.66 4.53 0.00 0.00 MoM -6.59 0.00 YoY -19.91 -29.20

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) latest estimates for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 334 lakh bales, down 5.6% from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. Lower opening stocks coupled with estimated lower output will result in lower supplies this season at 374 lakh bales, a decline of 8.7% compared with last years 410.77 lakh bales. On the consumption front, domestic consumption is estimated higher at 270 lakh bales on the back of higher mill consumption. However, after witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 70 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

The U.S. government has raised its 2012/13 forecast for global cotton inventory to above 80 million 480-pound bales for the first time due to larger-than-expected output in the United States, the world's third largest producer, and falling demand from China, the world's largest consumer. In its monthly crop report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture increased its estimate for 2012/13 ending stocks for a fourth straight month to a new all-time high of 80.27 million bales. Higher global ending stocks are seen capping the upside in the cotton prices this year too. However, downside is also limited as prices are again nearing its 12 year average price of 65 cents per pound. Markets will now take cues from the Chinese demand for cotton and trade policies of India with respect to cotton exports. In its November monthly demand supply report, the Agriculture Department (USDA) raised its cotton crop for 2012/13 cotton crop season to 17.45 mln bales (Prev 17.29) along with upward revision in end stocks 5.80 mln 480 pounds/bales (Prev 5.60). Exports were unchanged at 11.60 mln 480 pounds/bales.

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Nov contract

Outlook
Cotton prices might trade sideways with downward bias as harvesting pressure is weighing on the prices, but still no major downside is expected in the domestic markets as farmers will not sell their stocks at very low prices. Also, CCI procurement at MSP levels may support prices from falling sharply.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Kapas MCX April Cotton MCX November Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Nov 17, 2012 Support 942-951 942-951 15930-16060 Resistance 978-987 979-988 16320-16430

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