Sadbhav Engineering
Performance Highlights
Quarterly highlights - Standalone
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
% chg (yoy) (22.3) (30.7) (64.8) 1QFY13 421 39 52 % chg (qoq) (20.6) (19.7) (87.8)
`138 `168
12 Months
2QFY13 335 31 6
2QFY12 430 45 18
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (` ) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 2,077 555 1.0 161/94 57,419 1 18,460 5,615 SADE.BO SADE@IN
For 2QFY2013, Sadbhav Engineering (SEL) reported a poor set of numbers, which were significantly below our and consensus estimates. SEL had an order
inflow of ~`750cr during1HFY2013, taking its order book to `7,947cr (3.4x FY2013E revenue), which provides good revenue visibility. We maintain our Buy view on the stock. Execution falters, to improve in 2HFY2013: On the top-line front, SEL reported
revenues of `335cr, indicating a decline of 22.3% yoy against our and street estimate of `387cr and `404cr respectively. This was mainly on account of slower execution pace in the remaining under-construction projects and delay in start of construction activity in newly awarded projects. On the margin front, the company posted an EBITDAM of 9.4% a dip of 113bp on yoy basis and was lower than our estimate of 10.1%. Interest cost grew by 13.8% yoy/2.9% qoq to `18cr and was in line with our estimate. On the bottom-line front, the companys PAT reported a decline of 64.8% yoy to `6cr in 2QFY2013 against our estimate of `12cr. This was mainly due to lower-than-expected revenues and higher interest expense during the quarter.
Outlook and valuation: For FY2013, SEL has reiterated a muted performance on the revenue front. It expects two recently won BOT projects Gomti ka Chauraha and Solapur Bijapur to contribute ~`300cr in FY3013. Given the poor performance in 1HFY2013 we have revised our FY2013 and FY2014 EPS estimates downwards to `7.2(from `7.5 earlier) and `8.7 (from `10.4 earlier) respectively. We continue to maintain our Buy view on the stock with a SOTP target price of `168, owing to robust order backlog of `7,947cr (3.4x FY2013E revenue), strong balance sheet and as the companys equity requirement for underconstruction/development projects is expected to be met by internal accruals. Key financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Adj. net profit % chg EBITDA (%) FDEPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) OB/Sales (x) Order inflows % chg
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 47.4 22.8 18.1 11.6
3m 3.2 1.1
FY2011 2,209 75.8 120 122.1 10.8 8.0 17.3 3.3 23.5 22.5 1.1 10.0 3.2 2,363 (18.9)
FY2012 2,676 21.1 141 17.5 10.8 9.3 14.7 2.7 20.3 23.1 0.9 8.5 2.8 2,844 20.4
FY2013E 2,344 (12.4) 108 (23.1) 10.6 7.2 19.1 2.3 13.0 16.2 1.0 9.8 3.4 2,673 (6.0)
FY2014E 2,804 19.6 131 21.0 10.7 8.7 15.8 2.0 13.5 17.0 0.9 8.5 2.8 2,883 7.9
Viral Shah
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 viralk.shah@angelbroking.com
% chg (yoy) (22.3) (21.3) (30.7) (113)bp 13.8 8.6 (52.2) (68.7) (76.0) (64.8) (231)bp (64.8)
% chg (qoq) (20.6) (20.7) (19.7) 11bp 2.9 (2.5) (12.0) (88.7) (90.6) (87.8) (1052)bp (87.8)
% chg (27.5) (26.3) (37.7) (151)bp 23.5 10.6 (21.9) 11.3 7.6 13.2 280bp 13.2
Estimates 387 39 18 6 12
Actual 335 31 18 2 6
Project update
Dhule Palesnar project: The commercial operational date (COD) for the balance 25% of Dhule-Palesnar project has been issued by the NHAI which is November 2, 2012. However, tolling on the balance 25% portion will start in December 2012 as it is awaiting the final fee validation letter from the NHAI. The average collection from the Dhule-Palesner project is ~`24lakh/day. Further, SEL expects toll revenue of ~`36-38lakh/day once all the three sections of the project are operational (expected by Decemeber 2013). Nagpur-Seoni project: This project will be limited to 28km as against the original length of 56km. Further, for the payment of annuity, proportionate invoice has already been raised on the NHAI. The adjusted annuity for this project would be `20cr-21cr on a semiannual basis. Maharashtra border check post project: Approval for commercial operations for three check posts has been received by the company and tolling for the same will start in December 2012. Further, another three check posts are expected to be operational by October 2013 and the company is expecting revenue to the tune of ~`27-30cr for FY2013 from these six check posts. Bijapur-Hungund: The Bijapur-Hungund project has commenced toll revenue generation from May 2, 2012. Currently, the project has a daily toll collection of `25lakh/day. Hyderabad-Yadgiri: The COD for the 100% of Hyderabad-Yadgiri project has been issued by the NHAI. However, tolling on the balance 25% portion will start in December 2012 as it is awaiting a final fee validation letter from NHAI. Further, SEL is expecting toll revenue of `62cr-`65cr during the first full year of operations. Rohtak Panipat: The scheduled time for completion of the project is October 2013. However the company has already completed `616cr of construction work and expects early completion of the project. Chhindwara project: Execution momentum has picked up from June 2012. During the quarter, SEL has already booked revenues of `38cr and is expecting revenues of ~`120cr and ~`180-200cr for 3QFY2013 and 4QFY2013 respectively.
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Under-development projects
SEL has been declared a successful bidder for four-laning of the Rajsmand-Bhilwara road project on a BOT toll basis. The estimated total project cost is `720cr which includes a grant of ~`266cr and has a concession period of 30 years. The company has also achieved financial closure of two road projects Gomti ka Chauraha (TPC `1,150cr; EPC `976cr) and Solapur Bijapur (TPC `1,185; EPC `999cr). SEL expects to start construction on these projects by 4QFY2013 and is expecting `300cr E&C revenue to come from these projects in FY2013.
FY2014E Variation (%) (6.5) (30)bp (4.1) Earlier Estimates 3,147 10.7 157 Revised Estimates 2,804 10.7 131 Variation (%) (10.9) (16.4)
For FY2013, SEL has reiterated a muted performance on the revenue front. It expects two recently won BOT projects Gomti ka Chauraha and Solapur Bijapur to contribute ~`300cr in FY3013. Given the poor performance in 1HFY2013, we have revised our FY2013 and FY2014 EPS estimates downwards to `7.2(earlier was 7.5) and `8.7 (earlier was 10.4) respectively. We continue to maintain our Buy view on the stock with a SOTP target price of `168, owing to robust order backlog of `7,947cr (3.4x FY2013E revenue), strong balance sheet and as the companys equity requirement for under-construction/development projects is expected to be met by internal accruals.
Methodology P/E NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV
Remarks 8x FY2014E earnings CoE -14%, Traffic & Toll increase 5% each CoE -14%, Traffic 5% & Toll increase 18.5% (every 3 years) CoE -14%, Traffic & Toll increase 5% each CoE -14%, Annuity Project CoE -14%, Traffic & Toll increase 5% each CoE -14%, Traffic & Toll increase 5% each CoE -14%, Traffic & Toll increase 5% each CoE -14%, Traffic & Toll increase 5% each CoE -14%, Traffic & Toll increase 5% each
` cr
1,046 274 191 122 18 103 365 377 293 112 1,855 1,484
`/share
70 18 13 8 1 7 24 25 19 7 123 99 168
FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E 2,844 2,676 7,554 2.8 2,673 2,344 7,883 3.4 2,883 2,804 7,962 2.8
7.2 8.7
Investment arguments
Sound balance sheet: SEL has a sound balance sheet with parent net debt/equity of 0.5x as of FY2012. The companys working capital position is also much better than its peers. This has insulated the companys earnings to a great extent in such an exorbitant interest rate scenario, which has been the key concern for the decline in the sectors earnings, and has aided the company to outperform on the bourses. Funds tied up for projects in hand: SEL had successfully raised `400cr through stake dilution (22.2% in August 2010) in SIPL. This has made SEL fully tied up for the projects in hand. This money raising was a timely development by SEL, given its then huge equity commitment towards under-development projects. Also, this helped the company to focus on project execution, which is SELs forte, leading to early completion of projects a rare phenomenon in the industry.
Key concerns
Interest rate: Road BOT projects are vulnerable to interest rate fluctuations and any hike in interest rates would increase SELs interest costs. Commodity risks: Road players are facing pressures from the recent price inflation in commodities such as cement, steel, bitumen and diesel, which have a direct impact on margins. Awarding from NHAI: Slowdown in awarding activity by NHAI would hit order inflow for road-focused players such as SEL.
Company background
SEL was incorporated in 1988. The company is a leading EPC and infrastructure development company based in Ahmedabad. SEL is present in the roads and highways (71.5% of order book), irrigation (13.2%) and mining (15.3%) sectors. The company forayed into the road sector in 1995 and has since then executed several projects for NHAI and state governments. Currently, SEL is one of the largest BOT players in India with 11 projects in its portfolio through its 80.0% owned subsidiary, SIPL.
- Neutral
66.5 127.1
12,853 13,842 15,863 53,171 61,031 69,753 5,250 2,676 6,010 5,947 2,344 6,906 6,569 2,804 8,053 10,557 11,892 13,116
1,564 1,748
- Neutral
10
11
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 0.6 1.7 4.9 1.0 2.8 3.5 0.5 1.3 3.9 0.5 1.4 4.0 0.4 1.5 2.9 0.5 1.6 3.3 4.3 19 73 89 76 4.2 12 104 128 103 6.3 10 93 125 69 6.6 11 101 118 65 4.6 13 120 123 81 4.3 11 104 110 64 20.6 21.0 23.9 16.4 17.1 14.7 22.5 24.2 23.5 23.1 24.6 20.3 16.2 17.1 13.0 17.0 17.9 13.5 9.7 0.8 2.2 16.8 9.4 0.5 20.7 9.1 0.5 1.9 9.4 5.7 0.8 12.2 9.5 0.7 2.5 16.5 8.9 0.7 22.0 9.8 0.7 2.5 16.6 10.3 0.5 19.8 9.1 0.7 1.9 11.6 10.8 0.5 11.9 9.1 0.7 2.0 12.1 10.4 0.4 12.9 6.0 5.0 6.1 0.4 22.8 4.3 3.6 5.1 0.4 26.0 8.0 8.0 9.7 0.6 41.6 9.3 9.3 11.2 0.5 50.7 9.9 7.2 9.5 0.5 60.3 8.7 8.7 11.7 0.5 68.3 27.4 22.7 6.0 0.3 2.1 18.9 4.0 38.4 26.8 5.3 0.3 1.9 17.8 2.9 17.3 14.1 3.3 0.4 1.1 10.0 2.3 14.7 12.3 2.7 0.4 0.9 8.5 2.0 19.1 14.4 2.3 0.4 1.0 9.8 1.8 15.8 11.7 2.0 0.4 0.9 8.5 1.6 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Sadbhav Engg No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
13