Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| November 27, 2012

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Vaishali Sheth - Research Associate vaishalij.sheth@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133
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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| November 27, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Farmer's innovations benefit cardamom growers
An Idukki farmer's innovative approach has yielded results benefiting many cardamom growers in Kerala and its neighbouring States. The farmer-scientist, Rejimon Joseph Njallaniyil's innovation of a high-yielding hybrid variety Njallani Green Gold cardamom has nearly revolutionised the cardamom cultivation in the country, of late, many planters in Kumily and Vandanmettu told Business Line. A good majority of the growers both small and medium has planted this variety and we are benefited by it, they said. Of late, he has come out with three new planting methods and around 95 per cent of the cardamom farming community, they said, has whole-heartedly accepted the findings, and consequently could raise the production by five-fold. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Nov 26, 2012

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18537 5636 55.64 87.74 1750

0.16 0.17 0.35 -0.61 -0.10

1.08 1.16 1.22 -1.72 0.89

-0.92 -0.98 3.90 1.69 2.26

18.07 19.75 7.09 -10.66 2.26

.Source: Reuters

Govt may allow wheat export to clear surplus stocks

The government is likely to allow export of an additional 1.5 million tonnes of wheat from its godowns in order to clear surplus stocks. In July, the government had allowed export of 2 million tonnes of FCI wheat through PSUs such as MMTC, STC and PEC by March 2013. Of this, 1.5 million tonnes has been contracted 8 lakh tonnes shipped so far. We have moved a cabinet note for export of an additional 1.5 million tonnes of wheat from the central pool.The proposal may come up for discussion soon, a senior government official said. The export of surplus foodgrains will ease storage problems as the government currently has wheat stock of 40.5 million tonnes, which is double the stipulated buffer stock requirement of 21.2 million tonnes. (Source: Business Line)

4.5 lakh bales cotton registered for exports this season

Cotton export registrations for the 2012-13 season stood at 4.5 lakh bales as of November 5, Commerce Minister Anand Sharma said on Monday. The corresponding figures for 2011-12 were not available. However, the countrys total cotton exports for the 2011-12 season stood at a record 129 lakh bales (of 170 kg each). For cotton season 2012-13, the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) has estimated a production of 334 lakh bales and an exportable surplus of 70 lakh bales. There is a decline in international cotton prices due to overstocking and lower global mill demand during the last cotton season. Domestic cotton prices have followed the global price decline trend, but less steeply, so that the differential between international and domestic prices has narrowed considerably and at times become negative, Sharma told the Lok Sabha.
(Source: Business Line)

China 2013 wheat imports seen up 10 pct to 3 mln T

China is likely to import 3 million tonnes of wheat next year, a 10 percent increase from the 2.73 million tonnes it is estimated to have purchased in 2012, an agricultural researcher said on Tuesday. "Our consumption will increase and there is a decrease in the sowed area, so there is not much potential for an increase in production," said Bi Jieying, assistant professor at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, a research institute affiliated with the agriculture ministry. (Source: Reuters)

Farm exports surge after ban on non-basmati rice, wheat goes

Removal of ban on shipments of non-basmati rice and wheat last year helped India emerge as a net exporter of agricultural commodities. Exports of agricultural products have more than doubled in the past three years, while imports have grown by about a third in the same period. Besides, the surge in shipments of sugar, spices, coffee and tea has helped India boost its agri-exports in recent years. The agri-exports have grown from $10.56 billion in 2009-10 to $23.97 billion in 2011-12. In the same period, the import of various agri-products has grown from $10.70 billion to $14.27 billion. Non-basmati rice exports have seen a significant jump to $1.72 billion in 2011-12 from $76 million in 2009-10. The Government opened up exports of non-basmati rice and wheat for private trade in September 2011. (Source: Economic Times)

Ukraine winter crops mostly in good state - forecaster

Most Ukrainian winter grain crops are in good or satisfactory condition, giving farmers grounds to expect a substantial harvest in 2013, weather forecasters said on Monday. "The condition of winter grain crops is much better than last year and farmers have good prospects to harvest a substantial crop," said Anatoly Prokopenko, deputy head of Ukraine's state weather forecasting centre. Only the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk has some crops in a poor state, he said. Ukrainian farms sowed a total of 8.4 million hectares of winter grains, mostly winter wheat last year, but seeds on 1.2 million hectares did not sprout due to a severe drought from July to November. According to the data, provided by the Agriculture Ministry, 93% of the sown winter grain crops are sprouted as of Nov.23 and 92% of them are in good and satisfactory state. Farms sowed a total of 8.07 million hectares of mostly winter wheat for the 2013 harvest. Ukraine plans to harvest 45 to 46 million tonnes of grain, including 15 million tonnes of wheat, in 2012. The former Soviet republic harvested a record 56.7 million tonnes of grain in 2011. (Source: Reuters)

Hike in import duty on white sugar likely

The Food Ministry has recommended a hike in import duty on white sugar to 20 per cent in order to check flooding of the sweetener in the domestic market, a senior government official said on Monday. At present, import duty on white sugar as well as raw sugar is at 10 per cent each. We have recommended increasing import duty on white sugar to 20 per cent and maintain 10 per cent duty on raw sugar, the official said. The Finance Ministry is yet to take a call on this issue, the official added. Last month, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar had said the government will take a call on revising the import duty structure of sugar only after three months taking into account the progress made in crushing. Crushing operation has begun from October and mills have produced two lakh tonnes more sugar at 9.84 lakh tonnes in the first oneand halfmonth period of 201213 marketing year, according to the industry data. On sugar exports, the official said the free sugar export policy has expired in September and this will be reviewed in the next month. As much as 1.3 million tonnes of sugar has been shipped so far and not many shipments are expected to happen now. (Source: Economic
Times)

US soyoil exports surge as low S.American supply unnerves buyers

In just under two weeks, U.S. exporters sold more than 40 percent of the soybean oil targeted for export in the entire marketing year, in what trade sources said on Monday signaled a scramble by end-users reacting to dried-up supply in South America. The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed on Monday the sale of 20,000 tonnes of soyoil to an unknown buyer for delivery in the 2012/13 season that began on Oct 1.That was the seventh sale to an unknown buyer confirmed by the USDA since midNovember, which, along with a 20,000-tonne sale to China, brought the two-week total to 228,000 tonnes. Any sale of soyoil totaling at least 20,000 tonnes must be reported to the USDA within the next business day. (Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| November 27, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana spot as well as futures settled marginally higher by 0.12% and 0.14% on Monday on improved sowing. Total pulses acreage as on 23rd November is down by 8% to 85.1 lakh hectares from 92.49 lakh ha last season. Acreage was down by almost 17% till the previous week and thus shown some recovery in the sowing. Area under Chana cultivation in Maharashtra is up by 39 percent at 6.7 rd lakh hectares as on 23 Nov. While in Andra Pradesh it is up by 35% at 4.93 lakh hectares. However, in Rajasthan, sowing is much behind last years level due to late harvesting of kharif crops on account of delayed and deficient rains. Except for Wheat, minimum support price of all other Rabi crops has been increased by CCEA for 2012-13 season. MSP of Chana/Gram is raised by Rs 400 per qtl for 2012-13 season to Rs 3200. Higher returns and favorable soil condition will definitely boost acreage in the coming season. The Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP) has suggested 10 per cent import duty on pulses to encourage domestic production. in the first six months of the new fiscal that is from April to September this year, imports were an estimated 12 lakh tonnes.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 4425 4249 Prev day -0.12 -0.14

as on Nov 26, 2012 % change WoW MoM -4.07 -3.99 -9.21 -9.34 YoY 30.72 30.50

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Nov'12 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX Dec contract

Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals

Improved rains towards the end of monsoon season coupled with hike in MSP have raised prospects of Chana sowing in the 2012-13 season. Also, farm ministry has targeted 7.9 mn tn chana output for 2012-13 season, higher compared to 7.58 mn tn in 2011-12. According to the Ministry of Agriculture 99.81 Lakh hectare area has been planted under Kharif pulses in 2012-13 compared to 108.28 lakh hectare (ha) in the previous year. According to the first advance estimates of 2012-13 season, kharif pulses output is estimated lower by 14.6% at 5.26 million tonnes compared with 6.16 mn tn last year. Kharif pulses harvesting would commence from next month. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch)
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Dec Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Nov 27, 2012 Resistance 4280-4312

4168-4210

Outlook
Chana futures may open higher initially amid short coverings; however, selling at higher levels is advisable as fundamentals remain supportive for the downside. Expectations of ease in supplies amid higher shipments coupled with subdued demand will keep bearishness intact. Going forward, prices may also take cues from sowing progress of Rabi pulses which is expected to gain momentum in the coming days.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| November 27, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar spot as well as futures settled lower by 0.36% and 0.54% on Monday as government released higher quota for the next four months to restrict any sharp rise in prices. In a move to curb any further spike in sugar prices considering lower sugar production for the marketing year 2012-13, Government has allocated total 70 lac tons of non-levy sugar quota for Dec-March 201213 period which is higher from 59.5 lac tons sugar quota allocated by government last year same period . Out of total 70 lac tons, Government released 66 lac tons non-levy sugar quota and 2 lac tons levy conversion sugar quota. Also, there is an extension of around 2 lac tons from October, 2012 - November, 2012 which the millers have to release upto 10th December, 2012. 9.84 lakh tons of sugar has been produced in the current sugar season 2012-13 upto 15th November, 2012 that is 2 lakh tons higher to the production in the same period last year of 7.76 lakh tons. (Source: PIB) Maharashtra Finance Minister Jayant Patil on 18 Nov said most of the cooperative sugar factories in western Maharashtra have agreed to pay Rs 2,500 for a tonne of sugarcane as first advance to farmers. According to sources, the UP Government may announce a hike of Rs 20-30 a quintal over the next few days against Rs 240 a quintal last season. Also, Tamil Nadu State Government for the 2012-13 season fixed State Advised Price (SAP) for a tonne of sugarcane at Rs 2,350 linked to a sugar recovery of 9.5 per cent from last season price of Rs 2,100 a ton. Liffe white sugar settled lower by 0.24% on account of higher pace of crushing in Brazil coupled with higher sugar surplus forecast for fourth straight year has led to a sharp decline in international sugar prices.
th

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3426

as on Nov 26, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.36 -1.41 MoM -1.35 YoY 9.75

Rs/qtl

3290

-0.54

-6.45

-0.06

9.52

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMar'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 509.4 425.56

as on Nov 26, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -0.24 0.05 -3.21 -3.96 MoM -6.33 -1.95 YoY -15.26 -17.17

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Dec contract

Domestic Production and Exports

According to the first advance estimates by agriculture ministry, Sugarcane output is pegged at 335.3 mn tn, down by 6.2% compared to 357.6 mn tn last year. Despite of higher acreage, the producers body has estimated next years sugar output lower at 24 mn tn, down by 2mn tn compared to the current year. Industry body ISMA has estimated 6 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may export 2.5-3 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.523 mln tn for 2012-13.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Dec NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Nov 27, 2012 Resistance 3305-3322

3258-3274

Global Sugar Updates

Sugar output in Brazil jumped 57% during the first fortnight of October. Thus, sugar output in brazil which was lower compared to last year since the beginning of the crushing season in May, is now up marginally by 0.1% at 29.3 mn tn. Brazil has exported only 15.59 million tons of sugar this year till October which was 17.17 million tons, raw value, last year same period. The International Sugar Organization said it expected a global sugar surplus of 5.86 million tonnes in the season running from October 2012 to September 2013, up from the prior season's surplus of 5.19 million tonnes. The ISO said the stocks/consumption ratio could rise to around 40 percent in 2012/13, from 37.6 percent in 2011/12. (Source: Reuters)

Outlook
Sugar prices may continue to remain under downside pressure has government has allocated higher quota for the next four months to curb any sharp rise in the prices. However, further delay in cane crushing in Maharashtra and UP may provide support to the prices at lower levels.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| November 27, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean Dec futures settled lower by 0.4% on account of
profit booking on Monday. Although arrivals have increased sharply post diwali, demand from solvent extractors is robust to meet the soy meal export commitment which is supporting the upside in the prices since past few sessions. Average daily arrivals have increased to 5.5 lakh bags compared to 1.5 lakh bags during Diwali period. Soy meal exports during October are down 49,840 tn in October, the seventh consecutive month of fall in the current fiscal year, from 223,594 tn a year ago. This is because; most export commitments were done for forward trade like Nov-Dec amid uncertainty over supplies in October. According to first advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 126.2 lakh tn for 2012-13.

Market Highlights
Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Dec '12 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Dec '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3287 3260 743.6 729.7

as on Nov 26, 2012 % Change Prev day 0.80 -0.40 1.04 0.55 WoW -0.30 -0.06 4.14 2.61 MoM -0.39 -2.89 4.91 4.12 YoY 47.80 45.57 17.09 14.16

Source: Reuters

as on Nov 26, 2012 International Prices Soybean- CBOTNov'12 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTDec'12 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1425 49.27 Prev day 0.42 0.47 WoW 3.00 4.72 MoM -8.90 -4.24
Source: Reuters

International Markets
CBOT soybean prices closed on a positive note on Monday taking cues from the dwindling supplies from south American nations coupled wih increasing demand for crushing in US. South American exports of soybeans to China are now dwindling, probably falling to only 0.3-0.4 Mn T in November. As per Argentina's Agriculture Ministry weekly crop progress report, farmers have planted 31% of the estimated acreage for soybean to 5.921 mn ha , down 13% from the previous year. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported the U.S. soybean crush for October at 153.536 million bushels, the largest monthly figure since January 2010 and the highest for October since 2009. According to the USDA November monthly report, The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday raised its estimate for soybean production by 4% from its forecast last month, saying that rainfall late in the growing season softened the impact of the U.S. drought. Brazil's government on 8 Nov 2012 edged up its forecast for a record 2012/13 soybean crop to between 80.1 and 83 mn tn.
th

YoY 28.76 2.16

Crude Palm Oil

as on Nov 26, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -0.09 -0.02 -5.07 -0.91

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Dec '12 Contract CPO-MCX- Nov '12 Futures

Last 2265 433.3

MoM -8.26 1.71

YoY -28.57 -14.89

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Dec'12 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4200 4104 Prev day -2.04 -1.37

as on Nov 26, 2012 WoW -2.89 -3.39 MoM 3.19 -5.39

Source: Reuters

YoY 35.21 29.42

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil traded on a positive note due to
increasing demand for the edible oil amid winter season. However, CPO continue to remain weak on account of lower exports of Malaysian palm oil and fears of further stocks rise. Malaysian palm oil products export figures for 1-25 Nov. fell 1.9% to 12.56 lakh tn compared to 12.8 lakh tons in the Oct. 1-25. According to latest data from SEA, total vegetable oil imports in September were 993,912 tn, up from 897,018 tn in the previous month.

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX Dec contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Rm seed futures settled lower by 1.37% on

prospects of better sowing. Indias rapeseed output is expected to rise by 5 per cent to 6.5 mn tn from 6 mn tn last year. Higher prices have urged farmers to increase plantation as total acreage this year is seen at 6.8 mn ha compared with previous years 6.5 mn ha. So far, mustard has been covered on 52.2 lakh ha up from last seasons 50.7. MSP for Mustard seed is increased to Rs 3000/qtl.

Outlook
Soy complex may trade on a positive note during the intraday on account of good demand from solvent extractors for soybean and strong demand soy oil amid lower availability of mustard oil to meet the winter season demand. Mustard prices may remain under downside pressure on prospects of higher sowing and thereby better output next year. While, CPO may continue to remain range bound as higher Malaysian stocks will cap the upside.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Dec NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Dec Futures RM Seed NCDEX Dec Futures CPO MCX Dec Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Nov 27, 2012 Support 718-724 3208-3235 4000-4050 432-437 Resistance 737-742 3298-3330 4142-4180 447-452

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| November 27, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper spot as well as futures continued to trade on a negative note yesterday over reports that FMC has launched probe into complaints against pepper market movement. Prices have also corrected on expectations of better output in the domestic as well as the international markets. Farmers are trying to liquidate their stocks ahead of the commencement of arrivals of the fresh crop. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets remains weak due to price parity. However, low stocks and winter demand have supported the prices in the spot. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.13% and 1.26% lower on Monday. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $7,400/tn(C&F) while Vietnam was offering Austa at $7,000/tn, Brazil Austa at $6,700/tn, and Indonesia Austa at $6,500/tn (FOB).

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Dec '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 38639 37870 % Change Prev day -0.13 -1.26

as on Nov 26, 2012 WoW -2.52 -5.75 MoM -9.47 -14.27 YoY 11.55 8.67

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX Dec contract

Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till September 2012 is estimated around 80,433 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around 13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard). Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Dec Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Nov 27, 2012 Support 37180-37500 Resistance 38100-38360

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 20 tonnes while no offtakes were reported on Monday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up by 12.7% compared with 2.98 lk tn in 2011. Indonesian pepper output Is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to previous estimates, report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of year (2012). Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) On the other hand production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by 5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year. Production is lowest in a decade. Currently, pepper is in the fruit formation stage in Kerala.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to trade on a negative note today. Reports that FMC is probing into complaints against price movement may pressurize prices. Liquidation pressure from farmers as well as low export demand may pressurize prices. However, festive season as well as winter demand may arrest a sharp downside in the prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| November 27, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a negative note yesterday as the ongoing sowing of the crop has pressurized prices. Currently, sowing in Gujarat is currently lower by 40% but it is expected to gain momentum in the coming days. Also, higher stocks for delivery on the exchange warehouses have pressurized prices. However, export as well as demand has supported prices in the spot markets. Festive demand is also expected to improve. Exporters are buying due to tensions between Syria and Turkey. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.95% and 1.63% lower on Monday. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,825 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 4-5 lakh bags lower by around 3 lakh bags last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera SpotNCDEX(Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Dec '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 15000 14345 Prev day -0.95 -1.63

as on Nov 26, 2012 % Change WoW -0.42 -0.12 MoM -0.26 -3.09 YoY 4.37 4.19

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX Dec contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 7,000 bags, while off-takes stood at 8,000 bags on Monday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 40 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day -1.08 -1.88

as on Nov 26, 2012 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Dec '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 5045 5016

WoW -0.05 -4.53

MoM 0.48 1.01

YoY -10.52 6.86

Outlook
Jeera futures are expected to continue to trade downwards. Prices may correct tracking higher stocks for delivery on the exchange warehouse. However, sharp downside may be capped due to export demand. In the medium term (November-December 2012), prices are likely to stay firm as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Dec contract

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures corrected yesterday as the market participants have revised the production estimates due to improved weather conditions in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Also, the upcountry demand has dried up. Overseas demand is also reported to be weak. Stockists also have good carryover stocks with them. There are reports that Turmeric Farmers Association of India have decided to fix their own Minimum Support Price at Rs. 10,000/qtl. Turmeric has been sown in 0.58 lakh hectares in A.P as on 10/10/2012. Sowing is also reported 30-35% lower during the sowing period. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 1.08% and 1.88% lower on Monday. Production, Arrivals and Exports Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 4,000 bags and 1,200 bags respectively on Monday. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50-60% lower compared to last year. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric prices are expected to trade downwards today. Higher production estimates coupled with weak upcountry demand may pressurize prices. however, prices may find support at lower levels as farmers may be unwilling to sell their stocks at lower prices.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Dec Futures Turmeric NCDEX Dec Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Nov 27, 2012

Support 14020-14190 4912-4950 Resistance 14490-14610 5080-5110

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| November 27, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas settled marginally higher on short coverings. Sentiments remain weak on account of increasing arrival pressure. As on 18th November 2012, 22.66 lakh bales of Cotton has arrived so far, down by 29% compared to last year 31.97 lakh bales during the same period. Cotton export registrations for the 2012-13 season stood at 4.5 lakh bales as of November 5, 2012. Cotton exports are currently on Open General License subject to a prescribed procedure of registration. ICE cotton markets settled higher 2.05% on account of long liquidation by the market participants. Cotton harvesting has commenced in US, in all 84% is harvested as compared to 75% a week ago, versus 85% same period a year ago. Cotton crop condition is 43% in Good/Excellent state compared to 29% th same period a year ago as on 20 Nov 2012.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 958.5 16200

as on Nov 26, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.05 -2.34 0.50 -0.18 MoM -4.15 -0.18 YoY #N/A -2.99

NCDEX Kapas Futures MCX Cotton Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit Usc/Lbs Last 71.26 81.35

as on Nov 26, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW 2.05 -1.10 0.00 0.00 MoM -2.02 0.00 YoY -21.95 -29.20

Source: Reuters

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) latest estimates for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 334 lakh bales, down 5.6% from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. Lower opening stocks coupled with estimated lower output will result in lower supplies this season at 374 lakh bales, a decline of 8.7% compared with last years 410.77 lakh bales. On the consumption front, domestic consumption is estimated higher at 270 lakh bales on the back of higher mill consumption. However, after witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 70 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Source: Telequote

Global Cotton Updates

The U.S. government has raised its 2012/13 forecast for global cotton inventory to above 80 million 480-pound bales for the first time due to larger-than-expected output in the United States, the world's third largest producer, and falling demand from China, the world's largest consumer. In its monthly crop report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture increased its estimate for 2012/13 ending stocks for a fourth straight month to a new all-time high of 80.27 million bales. Higher global ending stocks are seen capping the upside in the cotton prices this year too. However, downside is also limited as prices are again nearing its 12 year average price of 65 cents per pound. Markets will now take cues from the Chinese demand for cotton and trade policies of India with respect to cotton exports. In its November monthly demand supply report, the Agriculture Department (USDA) raised its cotton crop for 2012/13 cotton crop season to 17.45 mln bales (Prev 17.29) along with upward revision in end stocks 5.80 mln 480 pounds/bales (Prev 5.60). Exports were unchanged at 11.60 mln 480 pounds/bales.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Dec contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Kapas MCX April Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Nov 27, 2012 Support 932-945 937-952 15950-16080 Resistance 968-978 975-985 16350-16480

Outlook
Cotton prices might trade sideways with negative bias as arrival pressure is weighing on the prices. However, no major downside is expected in the domestic markets as farmers will not sell their stocks at very low prices. Also, CCI procurement at MSP levels may support prices from falling sharply.

Cotton MCX December

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