Ecuador:

An examination of its current position relative to the Millennium Development Goals

JasonFischer 5/5/2011

Contents
Introduction..................................................................................................................................................3 Goal1:EradicatingExtremePovertyandHunger........................................................................................6 TargetsandMeasures...............................................................................................................................6 CurrentStatus...........................................................................................................................................7 Recommendations....................................................................................................................................8 Goal2:AchievingUniversalPrimaryEducation............................................................................................9 TargetsandMeasures...............................................................................................................................9 CurrentStatus.........................................................................................................................................10 Recommendations..................................................................................................................................10 Goal3:PromotingGenderEqualityandEmpoweringWomen..................................................................11 TargetsandMeasures.............................................................................................................................11 CurrentStatus.........................................................................................................................................11 Recommendations..................................................................................................................................12 Goal4:ReducingChildMortality................................................................................................................12 TargetsandMeasures.............................................................................................................................12 CurrentStatus.........................................................................................................................................13 Recommendations..................................................................................................................................13 Goal5:ImprovingMaternalHealth............................................................................................................14 TargetsandMeasures.............................................................................................................................14 CurrentStatus.........................................................................................................................................14 Recommendations..................................................................................................................................15 Goal6:CombatingHIV,AIDS,Malaria,andOtherDiseases.......................................................................15 TargetsandMeasures.............................................................................................................................15 CurrentStatus.........................................................................................................................................17 Recommendations..................................................................................................................................17 Goal7:EnsuringEnvironmentalSustainability...........................................................................................18 TargetsandMeasures.............................................................................................................................18 CurrentStatus.........................................................................................................................................18 Recommendations..................................................................................................................................19 Goal8:DevelopingaGlobalPartnershipforDevelopment .......................................................................20 . TargetsandMeasures.............................................................................................................................20

CurrentStatus.........................................................................................................................................20 Recommendations..................................................................................................................................22 TransnationalIssues ...................................................................................................................................23 . IllicitDrugs..............................................................................................................................................23 Political:RelationshipwiththeUnitedStates.........................................................................................23 Conclusion...................................................................................................................................................24 CurrentStatus.........................................................................................................................................24 ProgramRecommendations...................................................................................................................25 Stage1 ................................................................................................................................................25 . Stage2 ................................................................................................................................................26 . Stage3 ................................................................................................................................................26 . Appendix.....................................................................................................................................................28

Introduction
Onlyasmallpercentageofallcountriesintheworldarereferredtoasadvancedordeveloped countries.Whatcriterionisbeingusedtodeterminewhichcountriesaresuperiortotherest?There arefivecharacteristicscommonlyfoundindevelopingcountriesthatrestraineconomicdevelopment. Thesecharacteristicsincludealowlifeexpectancy,lowstandardofeducation,poorhealthcare,high unemployment,andpoornutritionandlimitedaccesstosafewater.Ecuadorisasmall,lowermiddle income,SouthAmericancountrycurrentlystrugglingforitsdevelopment.Alowermiddleincome economyranksincomepercapitaintermsofU.S.dollarsbetween$996and$3,945peryear.Ecuadoris currentlyworkingtoimproveeachofthecharacteristicsthatclassifyitasadevelopingcountry,but thereisstillalargeamountofworkthatneedstobecompletedbeforeanadvancedeconomiclevelcan beachieved.CountriessuchastheU.S.,Canada,Australia,andJapanhavereachedthisadvanced economiclevelandcontinuedtoexpandtheeconomyovermanyyears.Ecuadoristhe73rdlargest countryintheworldbytotalareaandislocatedinWesternSouthAmerica.Ecuadorbordersthe EquatorandthePacificOcean,betweenPeruandColumbia.1TheEcuadorianeconomyislargely dependentonexportsofoil,bananas,shrimp,coffee,fish,andotherpetroleumresources.Their economicstrengthreliesheavilyonthesuccessoftheirexportsinforeignmarkets. Deterioratingeconomicperformanceinlate1997andearly1998helpedcreateasevere financialcrisisinEcuadorin1999.Severalexternalcatalystsin1997and1998contributedtothecrisis includingtheElNio,significantdropsinglobaloilprices,andinternationalemergingmarketinstability. ElNioisaweatherpatternthataffectstheareabyrisingoceanwatertemperatures.Duringthe financialcrisis,EcuadorsGDPcontractedmorethan7%.Thisinturnresultedinalargeincreasein povertyandacollapseofthebankingsystem.Thecollapseofthebankingsystemresultedinabout70% offinancialinstitutionsclosing,yearoveryearinflationofover50%,unemploymentlevelsashighas

14%,andadefaultonexternaldebt.Thedefaultonexternaldebtresultedfroma65%devaluationof theirnationalcurrency,theSucre.Ecuadorhasatotalof$15billionindebt,$7billioninforeigndebt and$6billioninEcuadorianBradyBonds.BradyBonds,namedafterU.S.TreasurySecretaryNicholas Brady,wereusedasasolutioninMarch1989topreventacollapseofthebankingsystem.Ecuadorand manyotherLatinAmericancountriesparticipatedinthefirstroundofissuanceofBradyBondsbythe InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment.Aftermanycountriesdefaultedontheir nationaldebt,BradyBondswereissuedasasolutiontorefinancethebondsoriginallyissuedbythe defaultingcountries.BradyBondsplayedasignificantroleinthefinancialsurvivalofEcuador throughoutthe1990sbecauseoftheirguaranteebytheU.S.Treasuryandtheirabilitytobetradedby investors.In1999,EcuadorianPresidentJamilMahuadannouncedthatEcuadorwouldonlymakehalf ofthe$98millioninterestpaymentsdueonthebondsanddefaultontheotherhalf.Followingthese events,EcuadorianofficialsmetwithcreditorstodiscussrestructuringofthecountrysBradyBonddebt. InMarch2000,EcuadorsNationalCongressapprovedaseriesofstructuralreformsand providedtheadoptionoftheU.S.dollaraslegaltenderinEcuador.TheadoptionoftheU.S.Dollaras legaltenderinEcuadorisreferredtohereafterasdollarization.Dollarization,bolsteredbyrisingoil prices,stabilizedtheeconomyandpositivegrowthreturned.Duringtheperiodfrom2002to2006,the economygrewatarateof5.5%andthepovertyleveldeclined.However,povertylevelsstillremained highat38%.Inearly2008,theeconomygrewatarateof6.5%,adirectresultoftheveryhigh petroleumprices.Again,povertylevelsremainedhighat35%.Inthesecondhalfof2008,Ecuador defaultedondebtforthesecondtimeinnineyears.Thistimethegovernmentdefaultedon$3.2billion ofbonds.Onceagain,Ecuadorfacedeconomicuncertainty,furtherdiscouragingdomesticandforeign privateinvestment.Oilandotherpetroleumresourcesaccountedformorethan40%ofexportearnings and25%ofpublicsectorrevenuesin2008.2AsshowninFigure1.1,thepriceofabarrelofcrudeoilwas thehighestithaseverbeenin2008andwassignificantlyreducedduringtheglobalrecessionin2009.

Table1.1usesalinearregressionanalysistoshowthecorrelationbetweentheannualaveragepriceofa barrelofcrudeoilandtheannualGDPperCapitaofEcuadorbetween1982and2010.Ther2valueof .7967indicatesastrongcorrelationfortheannualdata.Thisfigurecouldindicateanevenstronger correlationiftheGDPpercapitawasreleasedquarterlyinsteadofjustannually. CurrenteconomicconditionsinEcuador,relativetotheother227countriesintheworld,are showninFigure1.2.Figure1.2identifieseconomicfactorsthatneedtobeimprovedbeforefurther developmentcanoccur.ThesefactorsincludeGDP,unemployment,theamountofdebtoutstanding, inflation,andincomedistribution.SomeofthesefactorsareaddressedintheMillenniumDevelopment GoalswhichhavebeenoutlinedbytheUnitedNationsaspartofaglobalactionplantoeliminate povertyinunderdevelopedcountries.In2000,the192memberstatesoftheUnitedNationsproduced theMillenniumDeclarationwhichcontaineddetailsoftheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.The Declarationsgoalisforeveryindividualintheworldtohaveabasicstandardofliving,freefromhunger andviolence,andtherighttofreedomandequality.TheMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsareeight developmentalgoalsthatfocusonincreasinghumancapital,increasinghumanrights,andimproving infrastructure.Theeightgoalsaretoeradicateextremepovertyandhunger;achieveuniversalprimary education;promotegenderequalityandempowerwomen;reducechildmortality;improvematernal health;combatHIV,AIDS,malaria,andotherdiseases;ensureenvironmentalsustainability;anddevelop aglobalpartnershipfordevelopment.Eachoftheeightgoalshastargetssettomeasureperformance andtoestablishabenchmarkforachievingsuccess.TheUnitedNationsseta2015targetdateto achievethesegoals.Inthispaper,IwillexamineEcuadorscurrentpositionrelativetotheeight MillenniumDevelopmentGoals.Iwillalsoaddresskeytransnationalissuessuchasenvironmental issues,illicitdrugs,politicalinstability,andsuggestwaysforfuturedevelopment.

Goal 1: Eradicating Extreme Poverty and Hunger

Targets and Measures
ThefirstMillenniumDevelopmentGoalistoeradicateextremepovertyandhunger.Thereare

threetargetsthatmeasuretheperformancetowardachievingthefirstgoal.Thefirsttargetstatesthat Ecuadormusthalve,between1990and2015,theproportionofpeoplewhoseincomeislessthan$1a day.Themeasuresforthistargetincludetheproportionofpopulationbelow$1(PPP),povertygap ratio,andtheshareofthepoorestquintileinnationalconsumption.Thesecondtargetistohalve, between1990and2015,theproportionofpeoplewhosufferfromhunger.Themeasuresforthistarget includethegrowthrateofGDPperpersonemployed,theemploymentrate,theproportionofemployed populationlivingbelow$1perday(PPP),andtheproportionoffamilybasedworkersintheemployed population.Thefinaltargetistoachievefullandproductiveemploymentanddecentworkforall, includingwomenandyoungpeople.Themeasuresforthistargetincludetheprevalencerateof underweightchildrenunderfiveyearsofageandtheproportionofthepopulationbelowtheminimum levelofdietaryenergyconsumption. Akeyindicatorofpovertyproblemswithinacountrycanbetracedtounequaldistributionof income.Onemethodofmeasuringinequalityinincomeisbyanalyzingthesizedistributionofincome withinacountry.Theothermethodisfunctionaldistributionofincome,whichisusedindetermining howincomeisdividedamongdifferentfactorsofproduction.Thesizedistributionofincomeis measuredonanindividualbasisbydividingthedataintogroups.Itconsidersindividualpersonsandthe totalincomethattheyreceive.ALorenzCurveisusedtoillustratethequantitativerelationship betweenthepercentageofincomerecipientsandthepercentageoftotalincometheyreceiveeach year.Thegraphincludesadiagonalline,representingthelineofperfectequality,whichgaugesthe equalityofwealthdistributioninacountry.Theareabetweenthelineofperfectequalityandthe

LorenzcurveisusedtoderivetheGiniCoefficient.GiniCoefficientscapturetheincomeinequalityand producesvaluesrangingbetween0and1,representingperfectinequalityandperfectequality, respectively.GiniCoefficientsmaybemisleadingbecauseitmeasuresanarea.Twoverydifferent lookingLorenzCurvescouldproducethesameGiniCoefficient.Therefore,thebestrepresentationof incomedistributionistheLorenzCurve.

Current Status
Ecuadorhassucceededinachievingthefirsttarget,tohalve,between1990and2015,the proportionofpeoplewhoseincomeislessthan$1aday.In1994,theproportionofpopulationliving below$1(PPP)perdaywasashocking15.9%.By2007,Ecuadorhaddecreasedthisnumbertolessthan 5%.Between1994and2007,thepovertygapratiodroppedfrom6.8%to1.2%andthepoorest quintilesshareinnationalincomeorconsumptionincreasedfrom3.1%to3.4%.3Themeasuresforthe secondtarget,tohalve,between1990and2015,theproportionofpeoplewhosufferfromhunger,are alsobeingachieved.Figure1.3showsthatbetween1990and2010,thegrowthrateofGDP(PPP)per personemployedhasremainedrelativelyconstant.Thenumberofpeopleemployedwascalculatedby multiplyingtheemploymenttopopulationratio(15+)bythetotalpopulation(15+).Thegrowthrateof GDP(PPP)iscalculatedbydividingtheGDP(PPP)bytheemployedpopulation.Between1990and2010, theemploymenttopopulationratiohasincreasedfrom51to61.AccordingtotheUnitedNations StatisticsDivision,from1994to1998theproportionofemployedpeoplelivingbelow$1(PPP)perday decreasedfrom20.1%to5.8%.4Since1990,theproportionoffamilybasedworkersintheemployed populationhasremainedconstant.Sincetheproportionofemployedpeoplelivingbelow$1(PPP)per dayhasdecreaseddrasticallyandtheemploymenttopopulationratioandGDPhasincreasedduringthe sametimeperiod,itisevidentthatEcuadorwillachievethesecondtarget.Thefinaltarget,toachieve fullandproductiveemploymentanddecentworkforall,includingwomenandyoungpeople,isalso

closetobeingreached.Theprevalencerateofunderweightchildrenunderfiveyearsofagewas reducedfrom14.8%to9.4%between1999and2004.Duringtheperiodfrom1991to2005,the proportionofpopulationbelowtheminimumlevelofdietaryconsumptionwasreducedby11%or1 millionpeople.5 EcuadorscurrentdistributionofincomeisillustratedinFigure1.4.Figure1.4showsthatwealth wasmostequallydistributedin1995andmostunequallydistributedin2003.Between1995and2003, Ecuadorexperiencedfinancialconcerns,mostnotably,thedefaultondebtin1999.Duringthisperiod, GDPbegantoexpandbutpovertystillremainedhigherthanthatexperiencedintheprefinancialcrisis levels.Thelowest80%ofthepopulationonlycontrolledlessthan35%ofthetotalincome.However,as seeninFigure1.1Ecuadorisranked31stoutof227countriesintermsoftheGinicoefficient.Figure1.5 showsthechangesintheGiniCoefficientofEcuadorfrom1998to2010.TheGiniCoefficient experiencedadecreasefrom2000to2003andremainedrelativelystablethereafter.Asawhole,itis clearthatEcuadorcontinuestoexperiencearelativelyunequaldistributionofwealth.Figure1.6 illustratestheunemploymentrateandtheemploymenttopopulationratio.Theemploymentto populationratioistheratioofthetotalworkingageofthelaborforcecurrentlyemployedtothetotal workingagepopulation.Theratiohasshownacontinuedgradualriseeveryyearsince1990.Ecuador hasalsoexperiencedareductionintheunemploymentrateeveryyearbetween2005and2010.

Recommendations
Thereareafewmethodstoreducingpovertyinacountry.Onemethodofreducingextremely

highpovertyandunemploymentratesisbycreatingjobs,newbusinesses,andwealththroughthe creationofastrongmicrofinancesector.Peopleshouldbeencouragedtodeveloptheirownmicro businessestosurvive.Generally,theseentrepreneursstruggletofindgoodfinancialsupportoptions. Afterthe1999financialcrisis,theUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID)in

coalitionwithEcuadorinitiatedaprojectthatwouldhelpbesiegedfinancialinstitutionslendtosmall businessowners.Between2001and2004,asaresultoftheassistancefromUSAID,theloanportfolioof financialinstitutionslendingtosmallbusinessesgrewfrom$86millionto$302million.Asaresultofthis increaseinloandollars,borrowersincreasedfrom105,000to302,000.AccordingtoaUSAIDreport, Themicroenterprisesectorprovidesjobsforanestimated1,018,135people,or25%oftheurban workforce;salesfromthesejobstotaled25.7%ofGDP.6Theincreaseinaidwillcreatenewjobsinthe alreadysuccessfulmicroenterprisesector.TheassistancefromUSAIDalsohelped21microcredit institutionssurvivetheperiodafterthefinancialcrisisandbecomeprofitable.7Anotherpossible programthatwillhelpreducepovertyistoinvestinresearchforinnovativewaystoincreaseexports andmaintainastableeconomyduringperiodswhentheirlargestexportsarestrugglinginthemarket. Thelastrecommendedprogramistosubsidizefarmingneedstohelpincreaseagriculturalproductivity andrelievethepressureonexportingpetroleumresources.

Goal 2: Achieving Universal Primary Education

Targets and Measures
ThesecondMillenniumDevelopmentgoalistoachieveuniversalprimaryeducation.Thetarget istoensurethat,by2015,childreneverywhere,boysandgirlsalike,willbeabletocompleteafull courseofprimaryschooling.Themeasuresforthistargetincludethenetenrollmentratioinprimary education;theproportionofpupilsstartinggrade1whoreachthelastgradeofprimary;andtheliteracy rateof1524yearolds,womenandmen.Theprimaryschoolnetenrollmentratioistheshareof childrenofofficialprimaryschoolagethatareenrolledinprimaryschool.Thegrossenrollmentratio inprimaryschoolsistheshareofchildrenofanyagethatareenrolledinprimaryschool.Thegross enrollmentratiooftenexceeds100%indevelopingcountriesbecauseofadultsthatarestartingto

receiveaneducationforthefirsttime.Literacyisdefinedashavingtheabilitytoreadandwriteashort, simplestatementoneverydaylife.

Current Status
EcuadorscurrentstatusforauniversalprimaryeducationisbestrepresentedinFigure1.7. Figure1.7showsthenetenrollmentratioforgirlsandboys,primaryeducationcompletionrate,and numberofchildrenoutofprimaryschool.Thenetenrollmentratioforgirlsandboyshasremained above99%since1998.Theprimaryeducationcompletionratereachedalowof71%in2002buthas sincerebounded.In2006,themostrecentprimaryeducationdatawasreleasedandshowsthe completionrateexceeding80%.Figure1.7illustratesthesignificantimprovementsmadeinthe Ecuadorianeducationalsystemsincethefinancialcrisisended.In1998,therewerearound30,000 primaryagechildrenoutofschoolandjusttwoyearslaterhadbeenreducedby2/3.Itisasignificant achievementforEcuadortokeepthelevelofoutofschoolchildrensteadyaround10,000,evenas populationincreasesasaresultofincreasedmigration.Theliteracyrateof1524yearolds,womenand men,hasremainedrelativelystablebetween95.5%and96.5%inrecentyears.In2001,Ecuador financeditseducationexpenditureswith1%oftheirGDP,leavingitranked182ndintheworld.8 EcuadorscurrentpopulationstructureisdepictedinFigure1.8.Figure1.8showsthatEcuadorsage distributionisheavilyweightedwithpeoplelessthan20yearsofage.

Recommendations
Basedonthisinformation,educationalexpendituresasapercentofGDPwillneedtoescalate quickly.Byincreasingtheeducationalexpenditures,Ecuadorwillkeepupwiththeincreasingdemandat theprimary,secondary,andtertiaryeducationlevelsasthepopulationstrivestoachieveuniversal education.Ecuadorshouldinvestintheirteachersandgivethemalloftheresourcesthatareneededto

educatethepopulation.Schoolsshouldbebuiltinlocationsthataccommodatethevastmajorityof students,inbothruralandurbanareas.Studentswillnotbeinclinedtoattendclassiftheschoolisnot locatedwithinareasonabledistance.Theotherfactortoconsiderisschoolfeesattheprimaryschool level.Schoolfeeshavebeenabolishedinmanycountriesandenrollmentrateshavesurged.People begintotakefreeresourcesandservicesforgranted,oftenshowingadecreaseddemandforthose resourcesorservices.However,Ecuadoralreadyhasahighenrollmentrateandifthereisasmall financialobligation,studentsmaybemoreinclinedtoattend.Byestablishingafeeitwillhelpin accommodatingtheincreasingdemandforclassroomsandteachers.Allofthesefactorsneedtobe consideredwhenidentifyingtheneedforadditionaleducationalresources.

Goal 3: Promoting Gender Equality and Empowering Women

Targets and Measures
ThethirdMillenniumDevelopmentgoalistopromotegenderequalityandempowerwomen. Thetargetissettoeliminategenderdisparityinalllevelsofeducationnolaterthan2015.Todetermine thelevelofgenderequalitythatisbeingachieved,threemeasureswillbeused.Thesemeasuresinclude theratioofgirlstoboysinprimary,secondary,andtertiaryeducation,theshareofwomeninwage employmentinthenonagriculturalsector,andtheproportionofseatsheldbywomeninnational parliament.Genderequalityisalsomeasuredintermsofemploymentbyeconomicactivity.The empowermentofwomenwillbemeasuredusingtheproportionofseatsheldbywomeninnational parliament.

Current Status
ThereisnearperfectequalityinallaspectsofeducationforEcuador.Girlsareslightlysuperior incohortsurvivalrate,havingagreaterpercentagereachingthelastgradeofprimaryeducation.Girls

alsoreignsuperiortoboysinattendingprimaryschool.In2006,employmentbyeconomicactivity showsmenreigningheavilyintheindustrysectorandwomenintheservicesector.However,both sectorsexperiencedaslightdrawbackandemploymentwasallocatedtothestrengtheningagricultural sector.9ThelatterpartofthethirdMillenniumDevelopmentGoalistoempowerwomen.In2000, whenthegoalswerefirstset,thenumberofseatsheldinnationalparliamentbywomenwas17.4%. Today,thatnumberhasnearlydoubledaswomenhold32.3%oftheseatsinnationalparliament.10

Recommendations
Thereareanumberofprogramsthatwillfurthergenderequalitythroughoutthecountry.The

underlyinggoalisforwomentohaveequalopportunityinareaswheremencurrentlyholdthemajority. Althoughthereisnomajordisparityintheeducationsystembetweengirlsandboys,thereisagapin theworkforce.Ecuadorcancounteractthisinequalitybylaunchingataxincentiveforanybusinesses thathaveestablishedtrainingandrecruitingprogramsthatrecognizegenderequalityandhaveapay scalethatisnotbiasedbasedongender.Theincentivewillcomeintheformoftaxcreditswhichwillbe directlydepositedintotheclaimantsbankaccount.Anothermethodtoempowerwomenistoseta quotaintheelectionbylawsthatrequireafixednumberofseatsinnationalparliamentbesetasidefor women.Whenimplementingtheserecommendations,itisimportanttoalsoconsiderthecultural normsofthesocietywithrespecttoreligionandotherculturalvalues.

Goal 4: Reducing Child Mortality

Targets and Measures

ThefourthMillenniumDevelopmentGoalistoreducechildmortality.Thetargetistoreduce theunderfivemortalityratebytwothirdsbetween1990and2015.Thethreemeasuresthatwillbe

usedincludeunderfivemortalityrate,infantmortalityrate,andtheproportionofoneyearoldchildren immunizedagainstmeasles.ThesestatisticswillbemeasuredusingdatafromtheUnitedStatesCensus InternationalDatabase.

Current Status
AsrepresentedinFigure1.8,itisevidentthatEcuadorisreducingchildmortality.Mortality ratesper1,000birthshavedecreasedsignificantlybothintermsofinfantsandthoseunderfive.The currentmortalityratesforinfantsandthoseunderfiveresidearound2%and2.5%,downfrom5%and 6.5%respectively.TheUnitedStatesCensusInternationalDatabasealsoshowsthepercentofoneyear oldchildrenthathavebeenimmunizedagainstmeasles.Thenumberofoneyearoldchildren immunizedhasremainedconstantat99%inrecentyears,upsignificantlyfromthelowof54%in1991.

Recommendations
Inrecentyears,thegovernmenthasshownastrongcommitmenttohealthcareandreducing

childmortality,whichisevidentbythe99%childhoodimmunizationrate.StudiesbytheNatural ResourcesDefenseCouncilshowthatinfantmortalityratescanbereducedthroughbreastfeeding. Breastfedchildrenarelesssusceptibletodiseasesandinfectionsduringtheearlystagesoflife.They arealsolesslikelytocontractdiabetes,sclerosis,orcancerbeforetheyreach15yearsofage.11 Between2005and2009,40%ofchildrenwereexclusivelybreastfedforlessthansixmonths.Duringthe sameperiod,77%ofchildrenwerebreastfedwithcomplementaryfoodfor6to9months.By implementingaprogramtopromotebreastfeeding,thereisagoodpossibilitythatthepercentageof childrenbeingbreastfedwillincreaseandalsofurtherreducechildmortalityrates.Inadditionto reducingchildmortalityrates,itdoublesasaneconomicincentiveforfamilies,allowingthemtoforego anyexpensesoninfantformula.Anotherprogram,withprovensuccessinreducingmalaria,was

implementedintheRepublicofCongo,Gabon,Mali,Nigeria,andZimbabwe.Thisprogramprovided mosquitonetstochildrensleepingoutdoors.Childdeathsfrommalariawerereducedby44% comparedtochildrenwithoutthenets.12

Goal 5: Improving Maternal Health

Targets and Measures

Thefifthgoal,improvingmaternalhealth,canbeachievedbyaddressingthefactorsthat contributetotheunreasonablyhighmaternalmortalityrate.Therearetwotargetsthathavebeenset forimprovingmaternalhealth.Thefirsttargetistoreducebythreequarters,between1990and2015, thematernalmortalityratio.Thesecondtargetistoachieve,by2015,accesstoreproductivehealth. Themeasuresthatwillbeusedincludematernalmortalityratio,proportionofbirthsattendedbyskilled healthpersonnel,contraceptiveprevalencerate,adolescentbirthrate,antenatalcarecoverage,andthe unmetneedforfamilyplanning.

Current Status
Themostrecentdatashowsmaternalmortalityrate,derivedfromvitalregistration,at130per 100,000livebirthsin2000.Thisrateisdown38%fromthe210valuein1995.Thecalculationisderived fromthedirectsisterhoodmethodadjustedestimates,aprocessofinterviewingrespondentsonthe survivalofalltheiradultsisters.13In1999,itisestimatedthatapproximately99%ofallbirthswere attendedbyaskilledhealthprofessional.Thisnumberhasremainedrelativelyconstantthrough2004 andisupsignificantlyfromthe61.3%in1987.14Theuseofcontraceptivesamongcurrentlymarried womenbetweentheagesof15and49waslastmeasuredin2004andwas72.7%,a6.9%increasefrom 1999.15Theadolescentfertilityratehasbeenslowlydescendingsince1998.In2008,theadolescent

fertilityratewasat82.6birthsper1,000womenbetweentheagesof1519.16Between2005and2009, theantenatalcarecoverageforatleastonevisitwas84%and58%foratleastfourvisits.Theunmet needforfamilyplanninghasdecreasedbymorethanhalffrom1994to2004,droppingfrom15.2%to only7.4%.17

Recommendations
WecanachievethefifthMillenniumDevelopmentGoalbyreducingthematernalmortalityrate andbyincreasingthenumberofbirthsthatareattendedbyskilledhealthprofessionals.Thereisroom foradrasticimprovementtooccurinthisarea.Maternalmortalityensuingfromcomplicationsduring birthcanbeconsiderablyreducedifthebirthsareattendedbyaskilledhealthprofessional.Thereare veryhighcostsassociatedwithbuildingamedicalinfrastructurethatwillprovidewomenwithhealth professionals.DuetothesesubstantialcostsitisunfeasibleasthistimeforEcuadortoallocatethe necessaryfunds.AnalternatesolutionistosetupmobilehealthcentersmuchliketheAmericanRed Crossandotherreliefcentersdoduringenvironmentalcatastrophes.Thesehealthcenterscandually actasaneducationalfacilityontheuseofcontraceptivesandprovideinformationonothersafesex practices.Thiswillreducetheadolescentfertilityrateandhelpkeeppeoplefromreproducingattimes whentheycantaffordit.

Goal 6: Combating HIV, AIDS, Malaria, and Other Diseases

Targets and Measures

ThesixthMillenniumDevelopmentGoalistocombatHIV,AIDS,malaria,andotherdiseasesand threetargetsaresetthatneedtobeachievedtoreachthisgoal.Thefirsttargetistohaltthespreadof HIVandAIDSby2015andhavebeguntoreversethespread.Thesecondtargetinthisareaistohalt

andbeginthereversaloftuberculosisandothermajordiseasesby2015.Thefinaltargetwassettobe completednolaterthantheendof2010anditistoachieveuniversalaccesstotreatmentforHIVand AIDSforallofthosethatneedit.InadditiontomeasuringtheprevalenceratesofHIV,AIDS,and malaria,humandevelopmentwillbeconsideredasafactorforbeingabletocombatthesediseases. OnemethodofmeasuringhumandevelopmentisbyanalyzingtheHumanDevelopmentIndex.The HumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI)measurestheachievementsofacountrybasedonlifeexpectancy, adultliteracyrate,andGDPpercapitapurchasingpowerparity,asanalternativetoevaluatinga countrysdevelopmentbasedsolelyonpercapitaGDP.18Eachofthesefactorsisweightedincalculating theHDIshowninFigure2.0.Theincomeindexiscalculatedusingthisformula:

The$40,000isrepresentativeofthemaximumincomethatacountrycouldreasonablyaspire overthecominggeneration.ThenextfactorintheHDIisthelifeexpectancyindexwhichiscalculated usingthelifeexpectancyinEcuadorandrelatingittotherangeoflifeexpectanciesthattheUnited NationsDevelopmentProgram(UNDP)expectsoverthepreviousandnextgenerations.Thefinalfactor incalculatingtheHDIistheeducationindex.Theeducationindexiscomputedusingthemeanyearsof schoolingindexandtheexpectedyearsofschoolingindex,equallyweighted.TheHDIweightsthe incomeindex,lifeexpectancyindex,andeducationindexequallyandtheaverageistheresult.The HumanDevelopmentIndexisimportanttothisgoalbecausethefactorsthatcompriseithelpindicate theexpectedshiftofAIDS,HIV,andmalariaprevalencerates.

Current Status
EcuadorhasbeeneffectiveinhaltingandreversingHIV/AIDSdeaths.In2003,theHIV/AIDS deathsperyearwere1,700.Theyremainedatthatapproximateleveluntil2009and2010whendeaths decreasedto1,400peryear.19Since2000,thetuberculosisprevalencerateper100,000hasbeen reversing.In2004,Ecuadorexperiencedareductioninprevalenceratefrom243to196per100,000 people.Thedeathratefromtuberculosisremainsaround12.4%oftheprevalencerate.Therecent decreaseintheprevalenceratewillcauseadecreaseinthedeathrate.Ecuadorhasachievedamedium statusonthehumandevelopmentindexandcontinuestogainmomentumtowardahighhuman developmentstatus.

Recommendations
ThereisanarrayofpossiblesolutionstohelpcombatHIV,AIDS,malaria,andotherdiseases.If

Ecuadoristobetterits77thHDIranking,theeducationindexneedstoimprove.Ahighereducation indexmeanstherehavebeenanincreaseintheaveragenumberofyearsofschoolingaswellasan increaseintheexpectednumberofyearsofschooling.Theeducatedyouthwillbemoreresilientto havingsexafterunderstandinghoweasilyHIVcanbetransmitted.Ecuadoralsoneedstoinvestina programthatwillhelppeoplealreadylivingwithHIVtoreceiveassistancewithmealsandotherdaily activities.Effortstocombatmalariaareaddressedbyparticipatinginthemosquitonetprogram suggestedasamethodtoreducechildmortalityrates.Thisprogramcanbeexpandedtoincludeadults aswellastheyouthpopulation.Otherdiseasescanbesignificantlyreducedwithanimmunization program.Immunizationscanbedistributedatthemobilehealthcentersandthecostscanbesubsidized byusingapercentoftheofficialdevelopmentassistancethatisreceivedannuallyasforeignaid.

Goal 7: Ensuring Environmental Sustainability

Targets and Measures

TheseventhMillenniumDevelopmentGoalistoensureenvironmentalsustainability.Four targetshavebeensettomeasuretheachievementofthisgoal.Thesetargetsincludeintegratingthe principlesofsustainabledevelopmentintocountrylawsandprograms;stoppingandreversingtheloss ofenvironmentalresources;reducingbiodiversitylossbyachievingasignificantreductionintherateof loss;halvingtheproportionofthepopulationwithoutsustainableaccesstosafedrinkingwaterand basicsanitationby2015;andachievingasignificantimprovementinthelivesoftheslumdwelling populationby2020.Biodiversitylosswillbemeasuredbyanalyzingtheproportionsofspecies threatenedwithextinctionandthelandareacoveredbyforest.

Current Status
ThereisavastarrayofenvironmentalissuesplaguingEcuadoranditssurroundingareas.The mostecologicallysensitivearea,justoffthecoastofEcuador,istheGalapagosIslands.Theissuesfaced bytheIslandsincludedeforestation,soilerosioninhighlandareas,desertification,waterpollution,and pollutionfromoilproductionwastes.Ecuadorhasmademinimaleffortstocombatflooding, desertification,anddeforestation,whichisoccurringatarateof840,000acresannually.20Landarea coveredbyforestdroppedover10%between1990and2005.Thisisasizablereductionconsidering landareacovers276,841sqkm.TheGalapagosIslandsarearguablythemostthreatenedareainSouth America.Currently,theIslandsarehometo95species,ofwhich,ninespeciesarecurrently endangered.21 ThepopulationexpansioninEcuador,representedinFigure2.1,isconsideredaseriousthreatto wildlifeintheGalapagosandonthemainland.Thecrudedeathrateremainsextremelylowandis

significantlygreaterthanthecrudebirthrate.Ecuadorexperiencedanaveragepopulationgrowthrate between1.5%and2%inrecentyears.TheotherthreattotheGalapagosisanincreasedtourism industry.Tourismisverybeneficialtotheeconomyandcanhelpinbringingacountryintodevelopment quicker,butitneedstobecloselymonitoredtoensuretheIslandsdonotgetdamagedbeyond restoration.AnothergreatsignforEcuadoristhatevenasthepopulationcontinuestogrow,therehas beenadrawbackintheslumpopulation,whichwasreducedby4%between2001and2005.Figure2.2 showstheproportionofthepopulationusingimproveddrinkingwatersources.Figure2.3identifiesthe proportionofthepopulationusingimprovedsanitationfacilities.Anupwardtrendisprominentinboth figures.Ecuadorhasreachedanothertargetfordevelopmentbyhalvingtheproportionofpeople withoutsustainableaccesstosafedrinkingwaterbetween2000and2006.

Recommendations
Deforestationcanbereducedbyplacingstrictregulationsontraditionalfarmingandoil development.Desertificationandfloodingareresultingfromaninfluxofdomestic,industrial,and agriculturalcontaminants.Thesecontaminantscanbecontainedthroughstricterenvironmental regulationswhichneedtobeenactedbythegovernment.Onewayofreducingenvironmental destructionisbyprovidingcitizenswithaccesstosafedrinkingwaterandsanitationfacilitiesthrough environmentallyfriendlymethods.Itistheresponsibilityofthegovernmenttodevelopan infrastructurethatwillleadtoeconomicgrowth.Thiscanbedonebyincreasingtravelaccessibilityin termsofairports,roadways,railways,andwaterways.Althoughallofthesearenotfeasibleduringthe remainingtimeframesettoachievetheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals,itisimportanttomake developmentsovertime.Onepositiveeffectofdevelopingasoundinfrastructureisreducingtheslum populationinurbanareas.Peoplethatmayhavebeenunemployedorunderemployednowhaveaccess tomanynewandexcitingemploymentopportunitiesthatmayhavebeenpreviouslyunattainable.

Ecuadorcancombattheozonedepletionratebyillegalizingtheuseofhydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)inanyproductssoldorproducedinthecountry.

Goal 8: Developing a Global Partnership for Development

Targets and Measures

ThefinalMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsetbytheUNwastoestablishanddevelopaglobal partnershipforeconomicdevelopment.Therehavebeenanumberoftargetssettogaugeperformance inachievingthisgoal.Thesetargetsincludedevelopingandimplementingstrategiesfordecentand productiveworkforyouthincooperationwithdevelopingcountries,makingthebenefitsofnew technologyavailableincooperationwiththeprivatesector,anddevelopinganondiscriminatorytrading andfinancialsystem.Thesetargetswillbemeasuredbyanalyzingtheratioofadultunemploymentto youthunemployment,theamountofofficialdevelopmentassistancereceived,numberofinternet users,numberofcellularsubscribers,andEcuadorsaccesstodevelopedmarkets.

Current Status
Theratioofadultunemploymentratetoyouthunemploymenthasdeclinedfromahighof4.8in 1995to2.6in2003.Thisisapositivesignthatdecentandproductiveworkisbeingcreatedforthe youth.However,thatfailstoaddressthepossibilitythatthegrowthrateofyouthtototalpopulationis high.Studiesshowthattheshareofyouthunemployedtototalunemployedwas53.1in1995andhas decreasedto43.1in2003.Therefore,Ecuadorisdevelopingandimplementingstrategiestocreatework foryouth.Thecommunicationindustryhasbeensignificantlyimprovedsincetheearly1990s.The availabilityoftheinternetandcellularlinesaretwooftheeasiestwaystoaccessaworldofinformation. Ausercannowquicklyaccessrelevantdata.Theinternetisusedforthecontinuedimprovementof

companiesandeconomicgrowth.AnanalysisofthedevelopmentofcommunicationsinEcuadorsince 1990ispresentedinFigure2.4.Figure2.4showstherehasbeensignificantgrowthinthenumberof usersaccessingtheinternetasawholeandasapercentofpopulation.Thenumberofinternetusers hasrisentomore15%ofthetotalpopulationsinceitsinductioninEcuadorin1993.Thenumberof cellularsubscribersasapercentofpopulationnearlydoubledfrom22.98%to39.08%,between2003 and2005. Todevelopaglobalpartnershipforeconomicdevelopment,underdevelopedcountriesoften receiveasubstantialamountofforeignaidfromtheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)andfrom specificcountries.TheUnitedStatesoffersthelargestamountofassistancetoEcuadorintermsof foreignaid.TheaidfromtheU.S.hasgoalstostrengthendemocracy,reducepoverty,protectthe environment,andsecuretheirborders.Between2007and2009,Ecuadorreceived$89.7millioninU.S. aid,including$39.8millionincounternarcotics.22Thesefundsonlyincludemonetaryaidthatisdirectly senttoEcuadoranddoesntcountanysortoftrade.TheforeignaidreceivedfromtheIMFisallocated totheimprovementofthetransportationinfrastructure,thereductionofpoverty,andthe improvementoftheeducationalsystem.TheOfficialDevelopmentAssistance(ODA)receivedby EcuadorfromtheIMFisgraphicallyrepresentedinFigure2.5.Foreignaidhasremainedrelativelystable between1997and2006rangingfrom$150millionto$250million.However,aidasapercentofGDP hasbeendiminishing.Ecuadorhasbeenimprovingtheprimaryeducationrateforgirlsandboys,the childmortalityrate,theaccessibilitytocleandrinkingwater,andsanitationfacilities.These improvementshavebeenmadeeventhoughaidasapercentofGDPhasbeendiminishing.This representsEcuadorsabilitytobecomeselfsufficient,andinturnadevelopedcountry.

Recommendations
Ecuadorismakinggreatstridesinitseffortforglobalconnectedness.Theinternetandcell

phoneshaveflattenedtheworldtoaonceunimaginablesize.Theinternetoffersanunlimitednumber ofbenefitstofamiliesandbusinesses.Someofthemostimportantbenefitsincludetheabilityto telecommutewhichallowsuserstoaccessalloftheirresourcesthatcouldbestoredonanoffice computeroracoworkerscomputeroverseas;theabilitytosearchquickly,easily,andeffectivelyfor informationthatwouldbeverytimeconsumingtofindinbooks;theabilityforbusinessestooffer onlinetrainingprogramsandteleconferences;theoptionforonlinebanking;andtheabilitytoemail, Skype,orinstantmessage.Ecuadorneedstoexecuteonaprogramthatprovidesmorefamilieswiththe opportunitytoaccesstheWorldWideWeb. Intheworld,thetotalnumberofinternetusersasapercentageofthetotalpopulationis28.7%. Currently,only15%ofEcuadorianshaveaccesstotheinternet.Ecuadorshouldstrivetoreachthe averagelevelwiththerestoftheworld.Aprogramthatcouldhelpincreasethispercentusesrecycled cellphonesfromdevelopedcountries.Thesephonescanbesetupwithdataplanstoallowuserstocall anywhereintheworldandaccesstheweb.Cellphonesubscribersthathaveadataplanshouldbe providedadiscountonthetaxesthatarepaidonthemonthlybillaswellassmallbusinessesowners thatareusingtheinternetintheirbusiness.DebthasbeenaseriousprobleminEcuadorinrecentyears andthegovernmentneedstotakeaction.TheEcuadorianGovernmentshouldreevaluatetheir spendingtoensurethattherewillbenomoreinstancesofdefaultingonbonds.TheOfficial DevelopmentAssistancereceivedannuallyshouldonlybeusedtodeveloptheinfrastructureorprovide neworimprovedservicestocitizens.TheODAshouldnotbeusedtofundprogramsthatarenotself sustainingbutratherareusedtoinvestinresearchinginnovativewaystoturnmoneypitprograms intoonesthatareselfsustaining.Ecuadorcanalsoestablishfreetradeagreementswithmany countriesinSouthAmericatoincreasetradeandexportrevenues.Thecurrentnegotiationstakingplace

withMexico,Brazil,Argentina,Paraguay,andUruguayshowEcuadorscommitmenttoloweringtrade barriers,diversifyingtheireconomy,andhavingafavorablebalanceoftrade.Theincreasedrevenues fromexportscanbeusedtohelpaccomplishthegoalsthatarecurrentlybeingfundedbytheU.S.and theIMF.

Transnational Issues
Illicit Drugs
TherearetwomajortransnationalissuesplaguingtheEcuadorianeconomy.Transnational

issuesareissuesinvolvingorimpactingcountriesoutsideofonecountrysborders.Thefirstissueis illicitdrugs.Ecuadorissurroundedbytwolargecocaineproducingcountries,PeruandColumbia.There issignificanttransitoftheseillicitdrugsandothernarcotics.TheUnitedStatesisthedestinationfora largeportionoftheharvestedcocaine,anditneedstopassthroughtheEcuadorianwaterstoreachthe UnitedStates.Ecuadorisnearlytheperfectlocationfordrugtraffickerstostoretheircashbecauseof theweakantimoneylaunderingregimeaswellastherecentdollarizationthatoccurredin2000, allowingtraffickerstouseU.S.currencyfortheirtransactions.23Thesedrugsarenotbeingproduced withinthecountry,onlymerelytransportedacrosstheborderfromtheirneighbors.Ecuadorneedsto identifythetransportationroutesandmethodsoftransportationaswellascombatanynewshipments fromcrossingtheborder.

Political: Relationship with the United States

ThesecondissueaddressespoliticalinstabilityandtheirpositionwiththeUnitedStates.

Ecuadorexperiencedpoliticalinstabilitybetween1997and2006.In1996,PresidentAbdalaBucaram waselectedanddismissedshortlyafteronthegroundsofcorruption.In1998,JamilMahuadwas electedPresidentandwasassistedbyGustavoNoboa.Mahuadleadthecountryduringatimeof

increasingeconomicandfinancialdifficultiesbutwasunabletocompletehisterm,ashefledthepalace onJanuary21,2000,atwhichtimeNoboabecamehissuccessor.NoboahelpedtorestoreEcuadortoa levelofstabilityandgrowthprimarilyledbytheadoptionoftheU.S.dollarastheofficialcurrency. NoboawasabletoleadEcuadorintoatimeofeconomicexpansionbecauseofthelackofcorruption duringhistenure. BoththeUnitedStatesandEcuadorareinterestedincombatingthedrugtraffickingoriginating

ontheEcuadorianborders,improvingeconomicdevelopmentinEcuador,andreducingpovertyforall citizens.Thestrongrelationshipbetweenthesetwocountriesislargelyinpartduetothenumberof EcuadorianslivingintheU.S.andthenumberofAmericansvisitingtheGalapagosIslands.TheU.S. providedcloseto$60millionineconomicassistancetoEcuadorin2009.24TheU.S.assistsEcuador throughorganizationsthatincludetheU.S.PeaceCorps,theStateDepartmentsNarcoticAffairs Section,andtheAgencyforInternationalDevelopment.

Conclusion
Current Status
EcuadorisstrivingtoachievethetargetsthatweresetfortheMillenniumGoals.Theyhave

seenadrawbackinthelevelofextremepoverty;experiencedahighlevelingrossandnetenrollment withintheprimary,secondary,andtertiaryeducationlevels;reducedthegenderequalitygapinterms ofemploymentintheindustryandservicesectors;andincreasedinthenumberofwomenengagedin parliament.Inaddition,childmortalityratesandmaternaldeathrateshavebeenconsiderablyreduced. ThespreadofHIV,AIDS,malaria,andotherdiseaseshasbeenhaltedandareversalprocesshasbegun. Boththereductioninmortalityratesandspreadofdiseaseshasledtopopulationgrowth.Ecuadoris verycapableofreachingadevelopedlevelby2015.Politicalcorruptionhasbeenreduced, environmentalissuesarebeingaddressedandcorrected,andtheyareworkingtoachieveself

sufficiencyfromforeignaid.However,Ecuadormustincreaseitseducationalexpendituresifithopes forfurtherfuturedevelopment.

Program Recommendations
Stage 1 Ihaveofferedasignificantnumberofrecommendationsforprogramsandinitiativesthatwill

allowEcuadortomeetorexceedtheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.Theserecommendationscanbe brokenintothreestages,eachofwhichwilladdvaluetothepreviousefforts.Overall,thegoalofthe UNistoimprovethequalityoflifeforallindividualsintheworld.EcuadorcanhelptheUNachieveits goalbyimplementingmyrecommendationsinthreestages.Thefirststagewillidentifyprogramsin Ecuadorthatarebeingannuallyfunded,butnotimproved,andrequirelittletonocapitaltoimplement Expertsshouldbehiredtoresearchalternatemethodsofprovidinggoodsorservicesinprogramsthat canbeselfsustaining,ratherthanprogramsthatareburdenonthegovernmentsfinancialresources. Theseselfsustainingprogramsareresponsibleforcreatingarevenuestreamthroughfeesandother methodstocoveralloftheirexpenses.Theseprogramswillbemanagedinthesametraditionalmanner asnonforprofitprograms.Thefreetradeagreementsthatarecurrentlyinnegotiationsneedtobe completedasawaytoincreaseexportsandcreateaccesstonewmarkets.Afterthegovernment restructuresexistingprogramstoeliminatewastefulspending,theirspendingcanberedirectedinto subsidizedfarming.Throughsubsidizedfarming,Ecuadorwillseeanincreaseinagricultural productivity.TheincomereceivedfromtheIMF,U.S.,andothercountriesshouldcontinuetobespent forthepurposesthatithasbeensenttoachieve.Anotherrecommendationinthisstageistoillegalize HCFCsandotherharmfultoxinstocombatozonedepletion.Myotherrecommendationscallfor stricterenvironmentalregulationstocombatdeforestationandalsoenactingalawthatrequireswomen toholdacertainpercentageofseatsinnationalparliament.

Stage 2 Thesecondstageofrecommendationsfocusesonimprovingbusinessesandhealth.Thefirst programofthisstageistocreateastrongmicrofinancesectorthatencouragesEcuadorianstocreate theirownbusinesseswhentheyareunemployed.Thegovernmentneedstosetasidefundsthat guaranteeacertainamountofmoneytostartupbusinesses.Thiswillallowpeopletheopportunityto createabusinesseveniftheywouldnotbeabletogettheloanfromabankwithoutthehelpofthe government.Instage1,governmentfundedprogramswererestructuredtoeliminateallwasteful spending.InthisstageitisnecessarytofocusoneducationalexpendituresasapercentageofGDP.By increasingeducationalexpenditures,therewillbetheabilityeducateteachers;providenewtextbooks andtechnology;andensurethateverystudentcanattendaschoolthatisinreasonableproximityto theirhomes.Improvementsingenderequalityshouldalsooccurinthesecondstage.Thegovernment shouldlaunchanincentiveprogramprovidingtaxcreditstobusinessesthathaveestablishedtraining andrecruitingprogramsthatrecognizegenderequalityanddonthaveapayscalethatisgenderbiased. Myfinalrecommendationinthesecondstageistoprovidewomenwithanincentivetobreastfeed.This couldbeanincreasedtaxoninfantformulaorcreatingamandatorydocumentthatneedstobesigned whenpurchasinginfantformulawhichoutlinesthebenefitsofbreastfeeding. Stage 3 Thethirdstageofrecommendationsfocusesonimprovingmortalityratesbycombatinga

numberofproblems.Afterimplementingtherecommendationsinthefirsttwostages,thegovernment shouldnolongerbefinanciallyobligatedtopoorlydesignedprograms.Myfirstrecommendationin stagethreeistosetupmobilehealthcentersthroughoutthecountry,withmorehealthcentersbeing placedinhighpopulationdensityareas.Atthesehealthcenters,patientswillbeprovidedmosquito netstohelpstopthespreadofdisease.Thesecenterswillalsohavefreeinformationonhealthyliving

andonsitehealthprofessionals.Thesehealthprofessionalscanaidwithsafebirth,offerassistanceto peoplelivingwithdeadlydiseases,andadministerimmunizationsagainstdeadlydiseases.Thereare manybenefitsofhavingthesehealthcentersasmobileunitsinthisstageofEcuadorsdevelopment. Twobenefitsincludebeingabletoreachpeoplethatcanttravel,theywillbeabletotraveltowhere theyareneededmost.Myfinalrecommendationinthisstageistoprovidetaxrelieftocellphone subscribersandsmallbusinessesthathaveembracedtheinternettogrowtheirbusiness.Thecoststo benefitsofeachprograminthethreestagesarealigned.Themostcapitalintensiveprogramsarefound inthethirdstage.Afterimplementingallofmyrecommendationsinthethreestages,Ecuadorshould befinanciallysecureandhavecapitaltoinvestinitspermanentinfrastructure.Improvementstoits permanentinfrastructureincludecreationofnewroadways,airports,hospitals,andanupgradeto telecommunications.

Appendix
Figure1.1

CrudeOilPriceperBarrel
$160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0

Source:IOGA

DailyOilPrice

Table1.1
. regress gdppercap avgoil Source Model Residual Total gdppercap avgoil _cons
Source:IOGA

SS 19791191.6 5050507.24 24841698.8 Coef. 42.65477 680.5615

df 1 27 28

MS 19791191.6 187055.824 887203.53 t 10.29 4.53 P>|t| 0.000 0.000

Number of obs F( 1, 27) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE

= = = = = =

29 105.80 0.0000 0.7967 0.7892 432.5

Std. Err. 4.146839 150.0769

[95% Conf. Interval] 34.14616 372.6291 51.16338 988.4939

Figure1.2
Source:CIATheWorldFactbook

Figure1.3

GrowthRateofGDPperPersonEmployed
7,000,000 6,500,000 6,000,000 5,500,000
Population

0.14% 0.12% 0.10% 0.08% 0.06% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GrowthRate

5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000

PopulationEmployed(15+)
Source:IndexMundi,myCalculations,U.S.CensusBureauIDB

GrowthrateofGDPperPersonEmployed

Figure1.4

100% 90% 80%

PercentageofIncome

LorenzCurve

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 1995 40% 2003 50% 2005 60% 70% 2007 80% 90% 100%
PercentageofPopulation

Source:WorldBank

LineofPerfectEquality

Figure1.5

GiniCoefficient
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1998 2000 2003 2006 2009 2010

Figure1.6 Figure1.7

Figure1.8

2010AgeDistribution
100+ 9094 8084 7074
AgeGroups

Females

Males

6064 5054 4044 3034 2024 1014 04 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800

Population(Thousands)
Source:U.S.CensusBureau,InternationalDataBase

Figure1.9

100% %of1YearofChildrenImmunized 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990 1991 1992 1993

ReducedChildMortality

70 MortalityRateper1,000Births 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Infantmortalityrate(per1,000births) Under5mortalityrate(per1,000births) Child1yr.oldimm.measles

Sources:U.S. CensusInternationalDatabase&IndexMundi

2010

Figure2.0

GDP(PPP)/IncomeIndex
$8,000 $7,000 $6,000 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.500 0.400 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

GDP(PPP)

$5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $

IncomeIndex
2007

Figure2.1

HumanDevelopmentIndex
0.900 0.850 0.800 0.750 0.700 0.650 0.600 0.550 0.500 2000 HDI 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year IncomeIndex 2005 2006 2008

IndexValue

EducationIndex

LifeExpectancyIndex

Source: 2008WorldDevelopmentIndicatorsCD&Authors'Calculations

Figure2.2 Figure2.3

ProportionofPopulationUsing ImprovedDrinkingWaterSources
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1995 Year

ProportionofPopulation

RuralDrinkingWater UrbanDrinkingWater

2000

2006

Figure2.4

ProportionofPopulation UsingImprovedSanitationFacilities
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990
Source:IndexMundi

ProportionofPopulation

RuralSanitationFacilities UrbanSanitationFacilities TotalSanitationFacilities

1995 Year

2000

2006

Figure2.5

TotalInternetUsersandCellularSubscribers (per100Population)
6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 TotalUsers 3,000,000 InternetUsers 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1989
Source:IndexMundi

CellularSubscribers

1994

1999 Year

2004

2009

Note:Bubblesize representsusersper 100population

Figure2.6

OfficialDevelopmentAssistance(IMF)
300 2.50%

250

2.00%

200 1.50% Millions 150 1.00% 100 0.50% ForeignAid Aidas%ofGDP

50

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

0.00%

Year
Source: WorldBank

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May 2011. <http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/ecuador/births-attended-by-skilled-health-staff>.

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UnitedNationsStatisticsDivision

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23