OCT-DEC 2010

Conflict and Peace Studies (Volume 3, Number 4)

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OCT-DEC 2010

Conflict and Peace Studies (Volume 3, Number 4)

A PIPS Research Journal

Conflict and Peace Studies

VOLUME 3

OCT-DEC 2010

NUMBER 4

Editor Muhammad Amir Rana Associate Editor Najam U Din

Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)

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Conflict and Peace Studies (Volume 3, Number 4)

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Conflict and Peace Studies (Volume 3, Number 4)

Contents
Editors Note 04

Report Conflict and Insecurity in Balochistan: Assessing Strategic Policy Options for Peace and Security 05

Safdar Sial and Abdul Basit Abstracts 89

Papers A Progressive Understanding of Pashtun Social Structures amidst Current Conflict in FATA Brian R. Kerr Understanding FATA Syed Manzar Abbas Zaidi Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan: A Global Threat Khuram Iqbal 91

109

125

Analysis Analyzing Suicide Attacks in Pakistan Akbar Nasir Khan Notes on Contributors 147 139

Guidelines for Contributors

149

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Conflict and Peace Studies (Volume 3, Number 4)

Editors Note
The current issue of Conflict and Peace Studies is divided into two parts. The first part carries the outcome of a recently concluded study on Balochistan by Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), whereas the second part explores the dynamics of the conflict in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The PIPS report on Balochistan presents a strategic analysis of the conflict in the province, the first in-depth study of its kind, which intends to advance an understanding of the causal factors, key players and dynamics of the conflict in Balochistan, which have a direct bearing on national and regional security. The PIPS report endeavors to explore the strategies and options of programmatic and policy interventions which may be feasible and effective in reducing the risk of violence and insecurity in the province. The second part is an attempt by PIPS to develop a better understanding of FATA. Brian R. Kerr has tried to unfold the Pashtun social structures in the context of the ongoing militancy in FATA. Syed Manzar Abbas Zaidi has endeavored to provide insight into the tribal socio-economic and socio-political dynamics and argues that comprehending them is as important as understanding the religious indoctrination that has prompted the tribal lashkars (raiding parties) to take on the form of a formidable army. Khuram Iqbal has looked into the potential and capabilities of the Pakistani Taliban expanding their operations beyond the tribal region. Akbar Nasir Khan argues that Papes thesis about the genesis of suicide terrorism, which he developed through analysis of an extensive database of suicide attacks in many countries, is not valid in the case of Pakistan and there is a need to look for other explanations for suicide attacks in the country. It is hoped that these studies will help promote a better understanding of the context and contours of the conflict in Balochistan and FATA.

Muhammad Amir Rana

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Abstracts

A Progressive Understanding of Pashtun Social Structures amidst Current Conflict in FATA

Brian R. Kerr The conflict in FATA has global ramifications. Many terrorist attacks in the West have been logistically or ideologically linked to Pakistans tribal areas. In recent years, there has been a shift in the US and Pakistani policies towards the region, with a greater emphasis on gaining the allegiances of the local population, a strategy crucial for a successful counterinsurgency. Historically, the Pashtun tribes of FATA have largely been left to their local political and administrative structures. However, the institution of jirga as well as the individual positions of power such as maliks, mullahs, and tribal elders have experienced significant consequences as a result of the ongoing wave of violence in FATA. A blend of Pashtun governance and societal structures aided by an influx of infrastructure and development could be a realistic, long-term peace-building mechanism in the region. However, before applying this model, a stable security climate is necessary and militant administrations must be eliminated at the very least.

Understanding FATA Syed Manzar Abbas Zaidi Islam as a religion of peace is being overshadowed by the Islam of politics. This political variant is the struggle of the small tribal clique of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) against the state, which, they feel, has marginalized them. The society is divided into tribes in FATA; the number is around 400 if all sub-clans are counted. Pashtunwali is the pre-Islamic Pashtun code of conduct whose effects on social dynamics in FATA have sometimes been exaggerated. FATA is an extremely poor area by any comparison. Adherence to Islamic ritualism is inbred in the lifestyle of the tribesmen, regardless of whether they really are religious or not. But before the Taliban, Islamic extremism had never really managed to gain a foothold in the Pak-Afghan tribal belts. FATA is a complicated area to comprehend by any standards, and thus any attempt to win hearts and minds in the area needs to be augmented by intense efforts to understand the ground realities. Barring that, FATA may well continue to be branded as the 'most dangerous area in the world' for a long time to come.

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Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan: A Global Threat Khuram Iqbal Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has undergone radical transformation since its inception in December 2007. An entity that was formed to safeguard and strengthen Afghan Talibans movement against the foreign forces in Afghanistan is gradually enhancing its global profile through its aggressive propaganda against the West in general and the US in particular. This paper seeks to measure the scale of global threat posed by TTP through a close observation and analysis of the post-9/11 shifts in the links between Afghan Taliban, Al Qaeda and Pakistani Taliban. The threat assessment also incorporates the content analysis of randomly selected statements and interviews of TTPs top leadership, which provide important insights into the groups ambitions and capabilities to transform into a global entity. The paper emphasizes enhanced regional and global collaboration to counter Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, which is no longer a challenge for Pakistan alone but a global threat.

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