DOKUZ EYLL UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF BUSINESS COURSE SYLLABUS 9/14/2011

Offered by Offered to Offered to Course Title Course Level Department of Business Administration MAN MAN ECN ECN IRL IRL THM THM IBT IBT Course Status Compulsory Elective

BUSINESS FORECASTING Course Code Year Semester ECTS Weekly Course Hours T A 0 L 0

Undergraduate / First Cycle

QMT 3001

Spring

6 4

Instruction Language Prerequisite

English FBA 1202

Mode of Delivery Prerequisite to

In Class

COURSE DESCRIPTION COURSE OBJECTIVE The course aims to provide students the core issues of generating and implementing business forecasts of which focus is on widely used modern statistical methods. Specific applications to business include forecasting sales, production, inventory, macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and exchange rates, and other aspects of both short- and long-term business planning.

LEARNING OUTCOMES On successful completion of this course, the students are expected to, 1. Have a knowledge understanding of the use of basic tools of forecasting and basic time series analysis techniques. 2. Have a knowledge understanding of the significance of data analysis and model selection criteria. 3. Demonstrate a good understanding of moving average and exponential smoothing forecasting techniques as well as their ability to forecast real economic, business and financial time series by moving average and exponential smoothing techniques using spreadsheet software. 4. Demonstrate a good understanding of the Box-Jenkins method of forecasting and apply their skills and knowledge to forecast real economic, business and financial time series by the Box-Jenkins method using a statistical package program. 5. Demonstrate their ability to analyze time series in the business environment using the appropriate methods with a high level of confidence. 6. Have experience developing a complete forecast and apply their skills in interpreting computer output and report writing

DOKUZ EYLL UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF BUSINESS COURSE SYLLABUS 9/14/2011

LEARNING AND TEACHING STRATEGIES 1. Lectures Class lecture is highly interactive and format is direct. The instructor prompts students for response to questions posed and solicits their thoughts on issues discussed. Lectures will focus on the transfer of basic tools of forecasting and basic time series analysis techniques where comprehension is substantially enhanced by additional elaboration and illustration. 2. Text Readings Each week, readings from the text will introduce new forecasting concepts and quantitative techniques. Readings provide both the theoretical background and technical skills necessary to generate and interpret business forecasts at an advanced level. 3. Review Sessions and Class Discussions Review sessions will be handled by the instructor each week in the last session of a lecture. In-class assignments and homework assignments are the basis of problems to be solved in these sessions. Individual participation by students in classroom discussion is strongly encouraged. 4. Computer Applications In the laboratory component, spreadsheet software and a particular statistical add-in package will be introduced to perform analyses of real economic, business and financial time series data. Instruction on the use of this software as it relates to forecasting problems will be provided in class and in the book.

ASSESSMENT METHODS 1. Exams

GRADING % %50

There will be two exams during the semester. Midterm Exam (%25) Final Exam (%25) Exams will measure the concepts introduced in the text readings and provide an opportunity to apply the techniques learned to solve practical forecasting problems. 2. Homeworks and Participation Homework problems will be assigned frequently. It is imperative that a student works and understands these problems to successfully complete the course. It is strongly recommended the students to work all homework problems as a study tool for the exams. By completing homework assignments, each student will enhance analytical skills, as well as, improve competency utilizing Spreadsheet Software and a statistical package for data entry and analysis. By actively participating in class discussions and in-class assignments, each student will improve communication and analytical skills through learning forecasting tools and business applications.

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3.

Forecast Project

Each student is required to complete an Independent Forecast Project which allows them to

DOKUZ EYLL UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF BUSINESS COURSE SYLLABUS 9/14/2011

apply the concepts and forecasting skills they have developed to a topic of personal or professional interest, like analysis of time series of an exchange rate, the price of a stock or a stock index, etc. Work on the project begins in week two as students select topics and begin identifying and gathering appropriate data. At the beginning of week three class, students submit a brief proposal (2-3 pages) addressing the following issues: specifying the objectives, determining what to forecast, identifying time dimensions, and addressing data considerations. This preliminary proposal is subject to approval of the instructor. After getting the approval, the students may go on further. Each week as making progress through the text and new forecasting techniques are introduced, the student will apply these new skills to their project. By the end of the term, students will have developed a rather sophisticated forecast. Due date is indicated on the course schedule below. Project reports will be submitted to the instructor prior to the start of the last week of class as both a handout and a digital file named as course, studentID and studentname (for example, Forecast_2001432999_XXX). Each report should be typed by using Microsoft Word and/or Excel and comprises the following: (i) a title page with the project title and full names of the authors, (ii) the main body of the report starting on the second page, and (iii) the report appendix. The main body of the report is where the forecast project is introduced and presented. It addresses the following: specify objectives, determine what to forecast, identify time dimensions, data considerations, model selection, model evaluation, forecast preparation, forecast presentation and discussion results and students own experiences. Report can be up to ten pages long. Numerical results, tables, exhibits, figures, etc., should be professionally presented in the report appendix. Using APA format, cite at least five (5) relevant, reliable sources properly to support your analysis. For APA assistance, A Guide for Writing Research Papers, APA-Style (http://webster.commnet.edu/apa/index.htm). Additional project requirements include to: Select a topic with adequate data available to allow for an appropriate holdout period in order to evaluate model performance both in and out of sample. Examine no fewer than five forecasting techniques as making the model selection. Include a regression model in the analysis. Include an evaluation of results for forecast models %30

Forecast project presentations will also be performed in the last week of class. The report will be presented using a PowerPoint, keeping it within 10-15 minutes for the presentation.

DOKUZ EYLL UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF BUSINESS COURSE SYLLABUS 9/14/2011

Students will be prepared to answer questions regarding data sources, analysis techniques, and findings. By completing the project, students will improve analytical and communication skills through identifying and applying forecasting techniques to the real economic, business and financial problems. Project reports and presentations will enable students improve their competency using the language of modern statistics to communicate the results.

ASSESSMENT CRITERIA 1. In exams, there will be one major part for each chapter. In each part, one or more questions are asked. Depending upon the general performance level of the students and the instructors own initiative, the bell-curve calculations might be used to transform the grades. In this situation, a student is supposed to get at least 10 points from each exam so that he/she can be included in the bell-curve calculations. If any exam question is left unanswered, the value of that question will be subtracted from the exam score. If only the answer is given (i.e., no work showing how that answer was determined), the question will be graded at 25% of its value.

2.

Grade for Student Participation will depend on (i) class attendance, (ii) the quality of the answers student provide to questions posed by the instructor during class, and (iii) the general contribution the student make to the creation of a positive learning environment. A good attendance record will bring the grade up one level, for grades on the boundary between two grade levels. The forecasting project will be graded by the instructor. Project will be evaluated for such factors as apparent understanding of the topic, originality of treatment and discussion, accuracy of results, comprehensiveness of the reports content and depth of the analysis, clarity and mechanics of presentation such as organization, format, punctuation, grammar, and quality of exhibits and charts.

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4.

DOKUZ EYLL UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF BUSINESS COURSE SYLLABUS 9/14/2011

TEXT BOOK(S)/ REFERENCES / MATERIALS 1. Text Books: Practical Business Forecasting, Michael K. Evans, Blackwell Pub., 2003, UK Business Forecasting, Wilson, J.H. and Barry Keating, 5th Ed. or later Ed. Irwin/McGraw-Hill. Forecasting Methods and Applications, S. Makridais, S.C. Wheelwright and R. J. Hyndman, 3th Ed or later Ed. John Wiley and Sons Inc. Statistics for Business and Economics by Paul NEWBOLD, William L. Carlson and Betty Thorne, 7th Ed. or later Ed., Prentice-Hall. 2. Lecture Slides: Complementary of the text book. Software: Spreadsheet Software with Data Analysis add-in. SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences) Minitab (Optional) R Statistical Package (Optional)

3.

4.

Calculator: Students will need a scientific calculator for various calculation problems in and out of class, and during exams.

COURSE POLICIES AND RULES 1. Attending at least 70 percent of lectures is mandatory. 2. Plagiarism of any kind will result in disciplinary action. 3. Absence will not be considered an excuse for submitting homework assignments late. 4. Delayed forecast project reports will suffer grade decay equivalent to one letter grade per day late. 5. Students are required to have their own calculator for this course. It will not be allowed to share a calculator during exams. Cellular phones cannot be used as a calculator during an exam.

DOKUZ EYLL UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF BUSINESS COURSE SYLLABUS 9/14/2011

COURSE OUTLINE WEEK 1 2 3 TOPICS Introduction to Forecasting Simple Regression Analysis Multiple Regression Analysis Select a Forecast Project Topic Submission of Project Proposal to the instructor via email and printout (Due at the beginning of the class) Lag, Autoregression, Autocorrelation, Durbin Watson Tests Lab Exercises Review Session 6 Index Numbers Weighted and Unweighted Indexes, Laspeyres, Paasche, Fisher Ideal Indexes and Consumer Price Index Moving Averages, Seasonal Adjustments, Decomposition Exponential Smoothing, Holt Winters Methods, Trend and Seasonal Components Introducing p, d, q terms, Optimizing ARIMA models 10 Combining Forecast Results and Forecast Implementation Computer Applications 11 Forecast Project Presentations Submission of Forecast Project to the instructor via email and printout (Due at the beginning of the class) Lab Exercises Review Session NOTES

Multiple Regression Additional Topics

Computer Applications

Time Series Analysis:

Smoothing Techniques

ARIMA (Box-Jenkins)-Type Forecasting Models

12

Forecast Project Presentations