09
,+ + -+
Today ,watch in the United States the release of the Factory orders for December due at 04.00 pm which are expected to pursue their
lasting drop trend as the global economic crises in the most developed countries reduce drastically the demand. Watch as well the non
farm productivity index for the fourth quarter , due at 02.30 pm expected to slightly improve as companies are cutting cost and are
restructuring .
Today ,watch in the Euro -Zone the release of the European Central Bank announces interest rate due at 13.00 am . As the recession is
deepening and as inflation is sharply showering we expect Mr Trichet to cut again its leading rate. Watch as well the release of the Bank of
England announces interest rate decision due at 13.45 am . We expect the BoE to cut again its repo rate for the same reason mentioned
above/JB
ate
ECONOMY
UNITED - STATES: MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS ROSE JANUARY 31 TH .
After a sharp drop January 23 th at -38.8% mortgage application in the U.S. rose last week mainly led by a sharp rebound in refinancing as
homeowners trimmed monthly payments . Indeed the refinancing measure rose 16 %. This rebound of mortgage applications should not
overshadow that credit crunch and rise of unemployment are shrinking household wealth and purchase power prolonging the housing
recession .
UNITED - STATES: THE ISM NON MANUFCTURING COMPOSITE CONTRACTED AT A SLOWER PACE IN JANUARY
U.S. service industries contracted in January ( 42.9) at a slower pace than forecast ( 39.0). This slight rebound can be explained by the
moderate slump in orders even if the employment is going down ( around 522 000 jobs have been destroyed by companies in
January).Nevertheless the ISM non manufacturing remained widely under the level of 50 ( representing the limit between a contraction and
an expansion of the activity) meaning than services are hit as well by the sharp recession
EURO AREA : THE PMI SERVICE AND THE PMI COMPOSITEPURSUED THEIR DROPPING TREND IN JANUARY
Europe’ services industries contracted for an eight month in January at 42.2 ( prior 42.5) as the area is hitting by its sharpest recession
ever. Indeed companies are cutting jobs as the demand is dramatically felling . The PMI service dropped in most of the Euro area
countries : France ( 42.6),Germany(45.2) underlining a sharp drop of the activity as the data are below 50 ( the border between contraction
and expansion ). In the mean time the composite index measuring the activity across the service and manufacturing industries dropped
from 38.5 to 38.3 showing the contraction of the manufacturing activity. As the revival plan and the decrease of the European Central
Bank leading rate will take 6 to 9 month to impact on the activity this situation should last till falls .
DOWN
DOWN
UP
UP
UP
ALSTOM 7,29 IBERDROLA SA -1,15 AMERICAN EXPRESS1,68
CO GENERAL MOTORS -4,56
CORP FURUKAWA CO LTD 7,41 -5,44
CHIBA BANK LTD/THE
6,74 SHARES
DAIMLER AG-REGISTERED BAYER AG -0,93 INTEL CORP 1,09 PFIZER INC -4,15 NSK LTD 5,68 -5,26
OKI ELECTRIC IND CO LTD
6,47LOUIS VUI
LVMH MOET HENNESSY -0,70
FRANCE TELECOM SA CITIGROUP INC 0,87 -3,01
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC NIPPON YUSEN 5,31 KONAMI CORP -5,16
VISA : Q4 Revenues $1.74bn ($1.68bn est.) / EPS $0.78 ($0.66 est.) / Payment volume grew 12% from the prior year /
Expects 2009 net revenue growth to be in the high single-digits & to be at the lower end of the 11% to 15% range in 2010
PROCTER & GAMBLE is working with Goldman Sachs to identify potential buyers for its pharmaceuticals brands (FT)
,
ZURICH FI : 2008 Gross Written Premiums $37.2bn ($48.5bn exp) / Operating $5.2bn ($5.3bn exp) / Plans further $200m in
cost cut / CR 98.1% (98.3% exp) / Dividend of CHF11 (in line) / Doesn’t see significant improvement in economy
SWISS RE : Warren Buffet will invest CHF3bn (12% coupon) in the company to boost capital & protect AA rating / Considers
further equity raising > CHF2bn / Sees FY net loss around CHF1bn including CHF-2bn CDS / CR 97.4% end 2008 / Div. cut
to CHF0.10
DEUTSCHE BANK : Q4 Revenue €-885m (€ -202m exp) / Trading Income € -6.5bn (€ -6.2bn exp) / Pretax Loss €6.2bn (€-
5.64bn exp) / Non-Interest costs €4.7bn (€4.2bn exp) / Tier1 Ratio at 10.1% / Propose div of €0.50, as announced
SEB A : Q4 Operating Sek 4.03 bn / Q4 NII Sek 5.51bn / No Dividend (2.00 e) / Announces sek15bn right issue (15-20bn
rumored )
STORA ENZO : Q4 sales €2.60bn (2.56bn exp) / Underlying Ebit €28.4m (51m exp) / Dividend €0.20 (0.33 exp)
FORTUM : Q4 Sales €1.60bn (€1.65bn exp) / Operating profit €611m (€622m exp) / Dividend €1
PEUGEOT : Chief Executive Christian Streiff' s position at the head of the French carmaker would be under pressure + may
announce a freeze on some investment projects + more job reductions when it discloses its results on Feb. 11 (La Tribune)
TOTAL reiterated it was happy with its 1% stake in Areva / An article in magazine Challenges said Total could take up to 5% of
Areva.
CREDIT AGRICOLE : Moody' s cut Credit Agricole's financial strength rating to B- from B
FRANCE TELECOM - VIVENDI - BOUYGUES : France plans to sell its 4th mobile phone licence for €210m (Le Figaro)
EADS : Kingfisher Airlines has deferred its purchase of five A380 aircraft for two years
PETROPLUS : Q4 sales $4.66bn (3.60bn exp) / Operating loss $800m (-283m exp) hit by writedowns on its inventory / Div.
SFR0.60
NOVARTIS - ROCHE (Minor) : U.S. health regulators said they were reviewing Novartis' s nail fungus treatment Lamisil and
Roche' s malaria drug Lariam, both for the risk of psychiatric events
SAP saw market conditions in Asia deteriorate rapidly starting near the end of the Q3 & said it will review its sales growth
target in the region (SAP previously aimed to achieve 30% growth in Asia software revenue up to the end of 2010)
INFINEON… : Hynix said falling prices of DRAM + losses from inventory revaluation outweighed its production cost cuts in the
Q4
DTE - FTE -TEF… : Top telecom operators will meet the European Commission Today to attempt to stall EU plans that would
force them to cut call routing fees by up to 70%
KESKO : Q4 sales €2.34bn, in line / Ebit €7m (55m exp) / Dividend €1 from €1.60 last year / Lowers ROE target at 12%
from 14%
CISCO : Q2 revenue $9.09bn (9.02bn exp) / EPS $0.32 (0.30 exp) / Book-to-bill ratio slightly < 1 as orders fell 14% in Q2 /
Weaker-than-expected start in 2009 / Sees Q3 sales down 15-20% to $7.83bn-8.32bn (8.71bn exp) / Plans to cut 2K jobs
PRUDENTIAL: Q4 Revenues $5.9bn ($6.35bn est.) / EPS $-2.69 ($-1.19 est.) / Reaffirmed 2009 guidance = EPS from $5.25
to $5.65
HYNIX : Q4 sales 1.51Trl won (1.57Trl won exp) / Operating loss 782bn won (-716bn exp) / Raised emergency funds in a
new share sale and bank lendings
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