MALTHUS, MARX AND MAO Author(s): ALAN R. PLOTNICK Reviewed work(s): Source: Challenge, Vol. 12, No.

9 (JUNE 1964), pp. 9-12 Published by: M.E. Sharpe, Inc. Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40718848 . Accessed: 04/01/2013 00:03
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incomes are very high, as is the prove to be an importanttransfer rates. But, more significantly, inclearthateither payment. rates in some incase,thenit is fairly creasingovertime in hoardingor personal consumption Whetherthe transfers income dustrieswill lead to more automawith low multipliers, occur throughthe vehicle of budg- tion if the final demand for the expenditures, is taking place. Foreign travel by et deficits, differential decreasesin products sufficient justify is to higher the wealthy, purchases of goods taxes,subsidiesor other fiscaltech- costs.Or, more likely,high (differin fromabroad, investments what niques is mainlya questionof fiscal ential) overtimepenalties will reVeblencalled conspicuous and does not affect the duce production and employment in consump- technology tion on the whole tend to have a central economic argument. The manyindustries. worst, high At the lower multiplierthan investmentssuggested overtime wage penaltiesto labor costsmightpush up prices. in industry- the passivecapital induceemployers hiremorework- The properpolicy, seemsto me, to it e.g., of ski lodges,summer to homes,yachts ers are, in my view,a short-sightedis to create favorableconditions and expensiveapartment houses is and improper policy.One can doubt operate in, rather than dictating less economically than the the equity of differential effective overtime marketoperationsby fiat. active capital of mines, mills, factories.Therefore, modesttransfer a of incomefromthe verywealthy to theless wealthy not likelyto have Red China's is population and ideology an adverseeffect nationalinveston mentand income.On the contrary, it maywell have a highly beneficial effect. low incomepeoBy bringing many of ple into themainstream theeconomy, the demand for housing, consumer schools, goods of all sorts, moremodestluxurygoods, medical care and a varietyof serviceswill will not only This increase increase. to cause existing investment be used more fully,but an accelerationef- by ALAN R. PLOTNICK fectwill occur-that is, the increase in consumerdemand may lead to the and Caughtbetween harsh of new investments varioussorts at reality a vastpopulation of increasing a faster and s thus reactivatethe private invest- ratethanproductivity Karl Marx dogmathat"overpopulation* exist can an the mentmarket. Communists sevhave onlyunder exploitative capitalist society, Chinese reversed their on At will, eral times position population planning. one time, during Manyof theincometransfers the leaders evenproclaimed a spiralof course,go through that government- theGreatLeap Forward, Communist was asset.In morerecent will thatis, thegovernment provide ingpopulation a greateconomic and years famine of industrial farm and the services through its own budget. stagnant leaders havereversed themproduction, Chinese are to will the the birthrate are encountering but However, effect be thesame selves.Now they trying lower national resistance theuneducated, What stubborn as any otherincometransfer.. tradition-bound Alan R. Plotmasses. from if the transfers well nick is Assistant are at Professor Political of Economy the University Alberta. of mayhappen of as plannedis that, a result increasing the incomestatusof the lower most discussions concerning government certainsocial side have invariably vacillatquarterof society, will China's population, we are re- ed betweeneitheractingtoo late or effects occurwhichwill be highFor to ly beneficial. example,the prob- mindedof the Malthusiandilemma not at all withrespect thecrucial lem of the social integration the of too many people relativeto the population problem which affects of In Negro and the Puerto Rican will existingfood supply. Nobody dis- China's economic progress. still tend to be more readily solved in agreeswiththissocial and economic other ways, the tortuousroute of the marketplaceif the income of truism. What is perhapsless clearly China's demographic shows ideology such people is improved. understoodis how the Chinese re- much less than completededication One of themajorattacks segre- gime, over the past 15 years,has to Marxist-Leninist on doctrinewithin the its gationis to improve educational modified populationviewsin re- the Chinese Politburo. of sponseto changing econominternal on qualityof the depressedfraction By focusing China'spopulation which will make them ic conditions. the society, problemswe can gain valuable inmore sociallyacceptable,as well as The shifting of currents Chinese sightinto the country's recentdiffidue populationideology reveala strange culties in raising the level of ecoeligibleforfuture highearnings to theirimproved This and inconsistent productivity. pattern that par- nomic welfare. Also revealed are and certainblind spots in the thinking might imply subsidizingeducation allels China's past uncertainties fora periodof timeforlow income achievements domesticeconomic of the ChinesePolitburoas it wresin would planning. The leadersof theChinese tles to transform stagnant, a tradipeople,but the subsidyitself

MALTHUS, MARX AND MAO

Challenge

June, 1964

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at believe that It is now growing about two per indus- The Sovietsapparently tionalsociety into a dynamic trializedpowerplayinga dominant theycan adopt any population hy- cent annually, which means that are rolein worldaffairs. yearthere about 14 million breaking every theywishwithout pothesis To understandthe relationship the umbilicalcord that binds them or 15 million more people to feed. In a country whereonly 11 per cent between China'spopulationideology to theirideologicalancestors. Soviet economists of the land is arable, the constant and her philosophyof economic Furthermore, and malnutrition we growth, must review the back- apparently disagree among them- threatof famine, of death hangs heavilyover the counChinese thinking selves regardingthe desirability groundof current where 90 per cent of the on the population question. Com- a populationcontrol They tryside, program. could people live. munist demographicideology was know that a rapid birthrate Before the leaders of China inby greatlyinfluenced Karl Marx's Thomas Malthus. augurated their firstnational ecopolemicagainst the nomicplan, theycentralized adWe mayrecall thatthe Malthusiministrationof governmentand was actually an theory population of fastened their political control a critique of the hypothesisthat the mankindwas makingreal progress. throughout nation. Concerning the population problem, Chinese was in thatpoverty By emphasizing leaders were uncertain.Sometimes large measurethe resultof human Malthus created an antheyargued in supportof Marxian fertility, tithesis betweenthe social ills that orthodoxy,and then they would contradictthemselves accepting in by originate man's biological drives Westernneo-Malthusianism. efNo and thosethat resultfromsociety's fortwas made, until 1962, to perwealth to producesufficient inability suade the people to reduce the size and distribute fairly. it of theirfamilies. The complete state On the otherhand, Marx refused of indecision this to viewthe overpopulation regarding keyissue problem not only reflected lack of undera in terms the Malthusianconcept of Marx thought of man vs. resources. standing of the economic foundationsof Chinesepoliticalpower, but insofar as it that overpopulation, also discloseda peculiar unwillingwas a peculiarlycapitalist existed, ness to recognize the presenceof a in labormarket Malthus problem whichthere economicundertow withwerealwaysmoremen seeking dangerous jobs thantherewereemployment create labor shortagesby in theeconomy. oppor- actually The Communists launched their From this "surpluslabor" removingwomen from the labor tunities. Marx's exceptional force. This mightbe desirablewhen firstFive-YearPlan in 1953. The premise, plus China from an in abilityto engage in semanticacro- automationtakes full effect the goal was to transform into an industrialnabatics, there emergeda "scientific SovietUnion,but fortheimmediate agricultural thathas become futurelabor is still an asset rather tion. Prioritieswere given to depopulationtheory" in On theaccepteddoctrine thepresent- than a liability. the otherhand, veloping heavy industry with a world. a slowerbirthrate mightcause the minimal emphasis on agricultural day Communist who loss of certain planned economies expansion. Measured against proThe Chinese Communists, the seized power in theirown country of scale as well as endangerthe de- ductionachievements, plan was success:steeloutputgrew of severaldecades afterthe Bolsheviks velopment the easternregionsof a material from 1.35 million to 5.35 million theirrule in Russia, ex- theSovietUnion. established metrictonsbetween1952 and 1957; hibited a strong devotion to the and Marxistpopulationphilosophy pig iron increasedfrom1.9 to 5.94 of When the Chinese Communists million tons; coal productionfrom naivelydenied the applicability doctrine seizedpowerin 1949,theywerecon- 63.5 to 130 million tons; electric socioeconomic 19th-century 7.26 to 19.3millionkilosituation powerfrom to a world which, in their case, fronted a demographic by seemscloserto the one depictedby that hardlyseemed favorableto a watt-hours. Malthus. Had the Chinese leaders long-run economic program. The population was not only "regressed"and accepted classical country's howbut also steeped in In terms of human welfare, population theoryas a guide to impoverished Accordthey might archaicwaysof economicexistence; ever,the plan was a failure. population planning, foun- to Chinese planners the vast pool ing to Prof.AlexanderEcksteinof have had a firmer intellectual of musthave appeared as the University Michigan,the per dation on which to build policies. of humanity The Soviet Union, on the other an amorphous, and, on capita supply of food did not inundeveloped hand,has had moretimeto examine the whole, unproductiveresource. creaseat all in the yearsfrom1953 for Marxist during to 1957. Moreover,the population Allowing a netdecrease adapting populationtheory, an totalof 602 in grewfrom estimated it to meet her own circumstances.the lean yearsof 1959-62, experts As a result,Marxist demographic Hong Kong estimatethat China's million in 1953 to more than 656 somewhere millionin 1957. dogma has exerted much less in- population is presently A review the first of ChineseFiveSoviet ideology. between millionand 720 million. 715 fluenceon official
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had been re- dustryhas firstbeen developed is productionachievements Year Plan revealsthe following distorted. the end At con- debatable. If in practice this doc- substantially sultsin relationto demographic we trineis followed, maygain heavy of 1958 Peking boasted of an inditions: The ChinesePolitburodelayed industry only to lose man; we may crease of 103 per cent for food was gainingheavy staples;thisfigure laterreduced launchinga programto limit the evenloseman without to a more modest36 per cent. Innation's population growth. The industry." The responsibility the failure dustrial productionoriginallywas for of publication the 1953 censuscoinwith said to have increased by 65 per of cided withthe beginning theeco- of thefirst plan rested primarily statistical of nomic plan, and, despite the un- the Central Committee the Chi- cent; later it underwent reduced to 20 per Its chairman, surgery, trends thatwererevealed, neseCommunist favorable being party. all output figures nothingwas done to restrainthe Mao Tse-tung,and the five vice cent. Practically chairmen sacrificed fundamental eco- for key commodities, including populationexplosionuntil 1962. The procrastination demo- nomicconsiderations broaderpo- steel, grain and cotton,had to be for on whichactuallybe- reduced,and even the new figures createdunnecessary litical objectives, graphicmatters internalsocial tensionsthat threat- came a threatto political security. wereopen to doubt. The Great Leap Forward worsthe chairman preened thegovernment's politicalcon- Unfortunately, cru- ened the demographic troloverthepeople.Moraleslumped ferredto give his countrymen equilibrium, exceeded both in rural and urban areas as sading slogans instead of practical forthe populationgrowth foodexpansion, of economicreforms. foodbecamescarce. causinga renewal famine. Conditions wereso bad that Between1953and 1957 China's theaveragecalorieintakeperperson urban populationgrewby as much 2,100calories as 30 per cent,and theruralbynine Undaunted by their failures,the was approximately per cent. Nearlyhalf of the urban Chinese Communists proceeded day. The government, desperateto per at from migration with anotherdevelopment the resulted increase program findexcusesfor its failures, first rural known as the "Great Leap For- pinned the blame on weatherconthe of peoplefrom food-starved to enough, regions the cities.As the popula- ward." Under this plan (1958-62) ditions.Then, surprisingly made the incredible the Communist leaders admitted ra- thegovernment tion pressureincreased,stricter away all restraints that theireconomicplan, especially tioningwas applied in the cities, decisionto throw social discontent. on populationexpansionon the as- the highlytoutedcommunesystem, to existing adding Westernanalystsof the Chinese sumptionthat people were an asset was the cause of the nation's ecoto economy agree that China's first contributing economic growth. nomicmisery. Since the collapse of the Great becauseof inade- The otherside of the question,the failedlargely plan in sector. Leap Forward,the Chinese regime quate investments thefarm has taken care to enlightenitself This mistakewas compoundedby on what the People's Daily recently collectivization of the demoralizing to referred as the "laws of economfarmland.These conditions,plus ic development."This particular numerousnatural disastersduring led and 1956-57, to a sharp 1953-55 thinking change in Communist apIf fallin livingstandards. thecalampears firstof all to be a delayed admissionthat, Marxist views notFive-Year ities that befell the first a Plan convincedthe nation'sleaders withstanding, core of truthexists of in the Western classicaldoctrines that a betterallocationof material classicalpopulaMalthus.Secondly, resourceswas needed, they must tionviewswentignoredbecause the have also seen theimportance surely the economy'smost of controlling political-mindedmembers of the Chinese Politburodid not want to human beings. vital resource, exsurrender conYet the Chinesegovernment powerto theeconomic in tinued to procrastinate the matperts. Finally, many party leaders with terof humancapital planning, apparentlydoubted that a population controlprogramcould be efdisastrous Chou En-lai consequences. Yet, without has said on severaloccasions: "We fectively implemented. some form of population control, can wait, the Chinese know how Marx the regime Chinese to wait."This characteristic onlysucceededin undertraditionalChinese society a attitude not necessarily modernis mining of raisingthegeneralstandard risinglevels without day virtue, especially when each possibility sustaining passingyear increasesthe disparity of food production,was somehow of living. Westernpopulation betweenpeople and resources. By accepting ignored. Population expansion, it be would somehow ab- attitudesthe Chinese are, in effect, Disillusionment with the first was thought, thatMarxistdemographic resilien- admitting the Five-YearPlan set in quickly. In sorbedthrough internal do 1957 one Peking newspaperstated cy of China's economic structure. theories not help China achieve Like thefirst whichteaches that that"thedoctrine plan, theGreatLeap economic progress.Acceptance of It and of agriculture light Forwardended disastrously. grad- neo-Malthusianism points to a new development outlook that contrasts is industry possibleonlyif heavyin- ually transpiredthat the original demographic
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withthe 1950s.Duringthose cropsgrownon small plotsset aside capital were available,whichis the sharply use. The communes have main handicap,China's arable land wereexam- forprivate yearsnationalproblems an ined from almostparanoieview- been brokenup into much smaller could be doubled. Anotherchoice, with danger,would be for point; feudallandlordsand bureau- units, called "production teams," fraught to its of craticcapitalists were held responsi- each consisting 20 to 30 families. China to intensify efforts shift Birthcontroland agricultural re- part of its population into Southble for the nation's woes. Foreign visitors weretoldthata "population organizationare a double-barreled eastAsia. PresidentKennedyregardedChiproblem"did not exist and that it answerto the Malthusianproblem of was only an invention "the for- that has harrassedMao Tse-tung na as America's foreign polgreatest to eign capitaliststrying shift the since he came to power. But the icy problem in the decade of the werebased not only of blame for their oppressionof the synthesis a completepopulation 1960s.His fears will also dependon on the likelihood that Communist Chinese people onto the backs of control program measures thatraiseproductivity and China would soon acquire nuclear the people themselves." withEarlier weapons,but also on pressures These and similar fantasieswill morale in Chinese industry. no longerbe so easilydispensedto mistakeshave taught the Chinese in China formorespace as itspopufarm and city workerswho have leadership to give top priorityto lation approached the one billion beforethe end of the lived through harshyearsof two agriculturerather than industry, mark,a certainty economic ineffectual plans.The Chi- but the emphasiswill probablybe this century.Though China is a nese people are also becomingin- changedonce again whenthecrucial serious threat to the countriesof between man and avail- Southeast Asia, it is perhaps an aware that the govern- equilibrium creasingly menaceto the U.S.S.R. even greater ment'sown economicplanningcan able food is re-established. We must considerhow valuable lead to disaster programof populaquite independently A successful tion controlin China would offer Cambodia or Thailand appear to devils. of foreign capitalist thelong-run of possibility a substan- the Chinese in comparison with tial decline in the level of human southern Siberiaor OuterMongolia. thistend- These latterareas wereonce partof Ihe present demographiccontrol fertility. Ironically enough, and thecurrent Malthus, who be- theManchuempire, programin Red China consistsof ency contradicts remains Chinese regimemaintainsthat it is fourmajor parts: (1) family plan- lieved that human fertility heir to all territories the rightful ning; (2) recommendationthat underManchu whichwereformerly of sterilization husband or wife be alSino-Soviet rule.The current undertaken wherelarge families dispute of providesthe Chinesewithan added readyexist; (3) toleration aborof excuse to press their claim to the tion;and (4) postponement marwho have not lands lostbyChina in pastcenturies. students riage among The failureto resolvetheinternal theireducation. yetcompleted ChiThe birth controlcampaignhas populationproblemencourages in affairs. nese aggressiveness foreign been widelyacceptedin apparently Yet we are told by the Chinesethat the cities,but therehas been little in the rural areas, where domesticconditionshave now improgress A 90 per cent of China's people live. provedconsiderably. recentissue of the PekingReview,forinstance, Reportsindicatethat the traditionassertedthat "since 1961 the ecobound peasants,as well as the unare nomic situationhas improvedyear educatedindustrial workers, opand the use to late marriages by year,and thisyear (1963) there posed Since the measures. of birthcontrol has been a generalturnforthe betis faster ter.The situation changing by peasantry and largestillclingsto than anyoneexpected." the old notionthatearlymarriages These reportsmust be accepted and large numbersof childrenare Mao in withcaution, viewof China'spast the best security againstold age, it is unlikely thatChina's leaderswill moireor less constant.If Chinese practiceof dressingup failuresas In successes. any case, the solve their immediate population family controlefforts successful, statistical are entirelythrough they could furnisha demographic China of today is still less indusgrowthproblems aimed at lim- modelforother Asian trializedthan Russia was in 1917, propagandaprograms overpopulated size. has countries emulateas theytryto and theChineseeconomy probato iting family recovered fromthe reSlowingdown populationgrowth attaineconomicmaturity. bly not fully verses of past years. China may birthcontrolprovides only through half the answerto China's problem. menace to appear to be a terrible Asiatic neighWhile limitingpopulation growth, I here are other alternatives open her underdeveloped leadersare endeavor- to the Chineseas theyreach foran bors. But in relationto the Soviet theCommunist China by optimumpopulation. Besides birth Union and the UnitedStates, ing to increasefood production and farm of the remainssomething a "paper tireorganization, giving farmersgreater incentives. control Once again the peasant is being Chinesecould extendthe cultivated ger." It is about the future strength If allowed to sell,on the open market, surfacein theircountry. enough of China thatwe mustbe wary.
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