,
_
,
_
+
+
,
_
,
_
3
2
2
2
53 . 1
2
66 . 3
2
13 . 3 3
2
1
2
1
a D
D
a D
D
a D
D
a D
D
a D
D
SCF (2)
In the more likely case of a joint with real cohesion,
the stress concentration factor must be found by ana-
lysing the problem using a finite element or finite
difference package.
The stress concentration which will cause failure of
rock with a uniaxial compressive strength UCS is
equal to (by rearrangement of (1))
H
V
failure
UCS
SCF
+
(3)
Adopting the suggestion of Priest (1993) the most
sensible choice of a probability distribution of ran-
domly occurring joints is the inverse exponential
function. Because the tunnel is located at random
within the rockmass, the probability of the joint oc-
curring within a given distance of the tunnel is:
s
x
e x a P
< 1 ) ( (4)
where x is the distance within which failure will oc-
cur, a is the distance between the tunnel joint and
the crown, and s is the mean spacing of the planes
of weakness.
For each length of tunnel being investigated, the
horizontal and vertical stress should be tabulated,
and the stress concentration factor found for which
failure will occur. By interpolation from the results
of formula (2) or from finite element analyses, the
distance from the tunnel which causes failure can be
found. Then (4) will give the probability that a
plane of weakness will be found which is equal or
closer to this distance, which is the probability of
failure at that point.
D
a