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O N T H L Y

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O M P I L A T I O N

Volume 9, Issue 1 January 2013

President Obama: Looking Back and Looking Ahead

How does Barack Obama stack up against our early expectations of him? In the next three pages we look at early assessments of the president and compare them to views today. Then we look at views about the way Congress and the government are working. On page 3, we examine Americans expectations for themselves and for policy in Obamas second term. Early expectations for new presidents are always high. In 2009, 65 percent expected Barack Obama to be an outstanding or an above average president. In 2012, 38 percent said he had been outstanding or above average thus far. Evaluations of economic conditions were dismal four years ago and there has been some improvement. Fifty-nine percent in December 2008 described economic conditions as poor; today, 35 percent give that response. In December 2008, only 13 percent were satisfied with the way things were going in the country. That has inched up to 33 percent. Far more Americans today say the country is more divided politically than gave that response early in the presidents term. Whatever our political divisions, the editors of Political Report wish the best of luck to the 113th Congress and President Obama in his second term.
Q: What kind of president do you think . . . ? 2012 So far Barack Obama has been 13% 25 26 15 20 2009 Barack Obama will be 28% 37 24 4 3

An outstanding president Above average Average Below average Poor

Source: AP-GfK/Roper, latest that of NovemberDecember 2012.

Q: All in all, are you . . . ? Satisfied with the way things are going in the country today 13% 33

Q: How would you rate . . . ? Economic conditions in the country are . . . Excellent/good Only fair December 2008 7% 33% December 2012 15 50 Poor 59% 35

December 2008 December 2012

Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2012.

Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2012.

Q: Whats your view? Do you think the country is . . . ? December 2012 Country is more politically divided these days than in the past Not more divided 80% 17 January 2009 46% 45

Q: Thinking about the people you know, are they . . . ? The people you know are more divided over politics than in the past Not more divided 60% 35 47% 47

Note: In a November 2012 Gallup poll, 69 percent said Americans were greatly divided about the most important values, while 29 percent said they were united and in agreement about them. Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2012.

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The Broken Branches

Congresss approval rating hit new lows in several 2012 polls. In one recent poll, just 1 percent said members of Congress listen and care about what people like them think most of the time. The marks for the federal government are not good either. Nearly two-thirds say it is broken.
Q: Do members of Congress . . . ? Members of Congress listen and care about what people like you think most of the time Sometimes Not very often

1% 31 67

Source: Center on Congress at Indiana University, November 2012.

Q: Do you feel the . . . ? Tone of the debate in Congress over the past several years has gotten considerably worse Somewhat worse Basically unchanged Somewhat better Considerably better Blame for the incivility in Congress (major factor) Members themselves Party leaders Political campaigns The media Increased incivility in society The voters
Source: Center on Congress at Indiana University, November 2012.

52% 27 20 1 1

70% 65 54 51 33 24

Q: Which one of the following best describes your feelings about the way the federal government is working these days . . . ? Federal government is working pretty well Just okay Its broken
Note: Asked of registered voters. Source: Fox News, December 2012.

Q: Do you think . . . ? The way politics in Washington works these days is causing serious harm to the United States Effects are not that serious
Source: Gallup/USA Today, December 2012.

7% 26 65

77% 19

Q: Which comes closest to your feeling about the way things are going in Washington . . . ? Enthusiastic about the way things are going in Washington Satisfied but not enthusiastic Dissatisfied but not angry Angry
Source: CBS News, December 2012.

3% 19 54 21

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Highs and Lows

In spite of all our challenges, Americans are optimistic that we will meet them. We feel positive about our own prospects, although when asked about specific areas such as improving the economy or reducing the deficit, we are less optimistic than we were four years ago.
Q: As you know, the United States faces a number of challenges, including but not limited to a large budget deficit and national debt, a slow economy recovery from recession, high unemployment, and a deep political divide on many issues. Do you . . . ? Americans will overcome these challenges in the foreseeable future, just like weve done with other major challenges throughout our history Americans are facing a unique set of challenges that are so serious that we might not be able to overcome them
Source: Allstate/National Journal, NovemberDecember 2012.

67% 31

Q: Do you think the country will be . . . ? Better off four years from now Worse off
Source: Gallup/USA Today, November 2012.

54% 41

Q: Looking ahead to next year, are you . . . ? Optimistic about how you and your family will do in 2013 Pessimistic
Source: Gallup/USA Today, December 2012.

Q: And, thinking ahead four years from now at the end of President Obamas second term. By that time, do you think . . . ? Your taxes will Overall government spending will The gap in income between the rich and everyone else will Government spending on programs that help people like you will Increase 62% 51 36 26 Decrease 5% 17 15 24 Stay the same 31% 31 46 46

69% 27

Source: Allstate/National Journal, NovemberDecember 2012.

Q: Do you think it is . . . ? Likely that Barack Obama will be able to 2009 2012 Improve the economy 84% 54 Reduce the deficit 49% 40 Improve race relations 75% 56

Source: AP-GfK/Roper, NovemberDecember 2012.

Q: Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you . . . ? Feel optimistic about The state of the national economy 48% 48 Your own familys financial situation 68% 66 The way things are going in the country 51% 46 Obamas policies 68% 55*

Dec. 2008 Dec. 2012

Note: *Category reads the policies Obama will pursue in his second term in office. Source: ABC/Washington Post, latest that of December 2012.

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Abortion Attitudes: Roe v. Wade After Forty Y ears

It would be hard to find another issue on which public opinion has been as stable as it has been on abortion since the 1973 Supreme Court decision, Roe v. Wade. Gallups trend is one of the longest, and opinions have barely budged. Views about the circumstances under which it should be possible for a woman to obtain a legal abortion also show little movement. If the circumstances are beyond the womans control, such as rape, the public says a woman should be able to obtain a legal abortion. When the circumstances are under her control, the public is more divided. Although public opinion has been stable over the past forty years on abortion, our new AEI colleague Ramesh Ponnuru argues that the politics changed in 2012 because pro-lifers gave their opponents, and journalists sympathetic to them, ammunition. Senate candidates Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock took an unpopular positionopposition to abortion in the cases of rape and incestand expressed it in ways that drove their support down still further. As the National Opinion Research Center data below show, large majorities of Americans believe it should be possible for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if she becomes pregnant as a result of rape. The third page of the section looks at the politics of the abortion issue.
Q: Do you think abortions should be. . . ?
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Legal under certain circumstances Legal only under certain circumstances 52%

Legal under all circumstances Legal under all circumstances 25% 20%

Illegal in all circumstances Illegal in all circumstances

Source: Gallup, latest that of May 2012.

Q: Please tell me whether or not you think it should be possible for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion . . . . Should be possible for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if . . . The womans own health is seriously endangered by the pregnancy 1972 2010 83% 84 She is married and does not want any more children 38% 46 She became pregnant as a result of rape 75% 78 The woman wants it for any reason* 37% 42 There is a strong chance of a serious defect in the baby 75% 72 She is not married and does not want to marry the man 41% 41
(continued on the next page)

1972 2010

Note: *Question first asked in 1977. Source: National Opinion Research Center, latest that of 2010.

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(Abortion Attitudes, continued from the previous page)

Although Americans want to keep abortion legal, only small proportions favor abortion in the second and third trimesters. Again, opinion is very stable on these questions. Most see the issue as a national and not a state issue. Men and women do not differ on being pro-choice or pro-life. There are sharp differences by age and education.
Q: Thinking more generally, do you think abortion should be generally legal or generally illegal during each of the following stages of pregnancy? Abortion should be generally legal In the first three months 1996 2011
Source: Gallup, latest that of June 2011.

64% 62

In the second three months 26% 24

In the last three months 13% 10

Q: In general do you agree or disagree . . . ? Agree with the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a womans right to abortion Disagree
Source: Quinnipiac, February 2012.

Q: Do you think . . . ? Laws about abortion should be decided at the national level Something each state should decide for itself
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, June 2012.

53% 36

64% 31

Q: With respect to the abortion issue, would you . . . ? National response Consider yourself Pro-choice Pro-life 47% 46 Responses of 1829 Men Women year olds 65+ 47% 46 H.S. grad 41% 53 48% 46 Some college 49% 46 53% 38 College grad 58% 36 37% 56

Pro-choice Pro-life
Source: Gallup, September 2012.

(continued on the next page)

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Resident Fellow; Henry Olsen, Vice President. Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew Rugg, Editor. Intern: Jesper Bodd.

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Abortion and the 2012 Election

Since 1992, the Gallup Organization has asked people how important abortion would be to their vote and here, too, the results have been stable. Between 13 and 17 percent have told interviewers that they could only vote for a candidate who shared their views on the issue. A Kaiser Family Foundation post-election survey found that 5 percent of self-identified voters indicated abortion was the most important issue to them in deciding for whom they voted. Four percent of Obama voters and 6 percent of Romney voters gave that response. Nearly three-in-ten people believe there is a wide-scale effort to limit womens reproductive health choices in the United States. Thirteen percent in a CBS News poll said Congressman Todd Akins views on abortion and women who have been raped represented the views of most Republicans.
Q: Thinking about how the abortion issue might affect your vote for major offices, would you only vote for a candidate who shares your views on abortion, consider a candidates position on abortion as just one of many important factors, or not see abortion as a major issue?
60 Just one of many important factors 50 Percentage 40 30 20 10 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 45% Do not see abortion as a major issue 34%

Only vote for a candidate who shares your views on abortion

17%

Source: Gallup, latest that of September 2012.

Q: Which comes closer to your view? In the United States today . . . There is a wide-scale effort to limit womens reproductive health choices and services such as abortion, family planning, and contraception There are some groups that would like to limit womens reproductive health choices and services, but it is not a wide-scale effort There has been no effort to limit womens reproductive health choices
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, May 2012.

Q: Do you think the statements made by Congressman Akin regarding abortion and women who have been raped reflect the views of most Republicans, or not? Akins comments reflect the views of most Republicans Do not Dont know/no answer
Source: CBS News, August 2012.

28%

13% 59 27

44 9

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Black Progress and Barack Obama

In 2008 the turnout rate among blacks on Election Day was almost equal to that of whites, and the turnout rate among young blacks was higher than that of young whites. In 2012, blacks were 12 percent of the eligible electorate, but they cast 13 percent of the votes. Census data on 2012 voting and registration will not be available for several months, but a Pew Research Center review of other available data from this election suggests that it is possible that the turnout rate of blacks will surpass than of whites for the first time. Ninety-three percent of blacks voted for President Obama in November. His approval rating among blacks has almost always been above 80 percent throughout his first term. Many questions were asked about race relations when the President was elected, but there have not been a lot of them in recent years. When he was elected, 70 percent said race relations in the country would improve. In 2011, 35 percent said they had improved, 23 percent gotten worse, and 41 percent remained unchanged.
2008 Voter turnout rate Voter turnout rate by race/ethnicity for 1829 year olds 66.1% 52.1 65.2 58.2 49.9 40.7 47.0 42.9 2012 Makeup of the electorate on Election Day 72% 13 10 3
Source: National Election Pool, survey of voters leaving the polls, November 2012.

White Black Hispanic Asian

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the Current Population Survey, November supplement.

Q: As a result of Barack Obamas election, do you think . . . ? 2008 Race relations will . . . Get a lot/little better Not change 17 Get a little/a lot worse 10
Source: Gallup/USA Today, November 5, 2008.

Q: As a result of Barack Obamas election, do you think . . . ? 2011 National Race relations have . . . Gotten a lot/little better Not changed Gotten a little/lot worse
Source: Gallup, August 2011.

70%

Responses of Whites Blacks 31% 45 22 48% 27 24

35% 41 23

Q: Here is another series of statements on some different topics. The first one is . . . . 2012 Agree, in the past few years, there hasnt been much real improvement in the position of black people in this country National response Response of whites Responses of blacks
Source: Pew Research Center, April 2012.

Q: Do you . . . ? 2012 Disagree, discrimination against blacks is rare today 61% 60 71

National Response of whites Response of blacks

38% 33 61

Source: Pew Research Center, April 2012.

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Affirmative Action Reconsidered

In February 2012, the Supreme Court agreed to hear a major case, Fisher v. the University of Texas, involving race conscious college admissions and in October, the Court heard oral arguments. Only a few pollsters have regularly tracked public attitudes on affirmative action, and we show their results below. We look at national attitudes and separately at the attitudes of blacks and whites.

Past Discrimination
Q: Some people say that because of past discrimination, blacks should be given preference in hiring and promotion. Others say that such preference in hiring and promotion of blacks is wrong because it discriminates against whites. What about your opinionare you . . . ?
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

National response
Against preferences in hiring and promotion of blacks 81%

For

19%

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 White responses: for preferences in hiring and promotion of blacks 12%

Black responses: for preferences in hiring and promotion of blacks 44%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: National Opinion Research Center, latest that of 2010.

(continued on the next page)

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Blacks and Past Immigrant Groups

Q: Do you agree strongly, agree somewhat, neither agree nor disagree, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly with the following statement: Irish, Italians, Jewish and many other minorities overcame prejudice and worked their way up. Blacks should . . . ? National response
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Disagree Neither agree nor disagree 15% 13% Agree, blacks should do the same without special favors 72%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

White responses: Agree, blacks should do the same without special favors 76%

60%

Black responses: Agree, blacks should do the same without special favors

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: National Opinion Research Center, latest that of 2010.

(continued on the next page)

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Preferential Treatment
Q: We should make every possible effort to improve the position of blacks and other minorities, even if it means giving them preferential treatment. Do you . . . ?
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of 2012.
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 White responses: Agree Agree that we should make every possible effort to improve the position of blacks and other minorities, even it means giving them preferential treatment (national) Black responses: Agree 62%

33% 22%

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

University Admissions
Q: What do you think the chances are these days that . . . ?
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 White responses: Very likely

Source: National Opinion Research Center, latest that of 2010.

Very likely that a white person won't get admitted to a college or university program while a less qualified black person gets admitted instead (national)

2012

2011

16% 15% 14%

Black responses: Very likely

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

(continued on the next page)

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College Freshmens Attitudes on Affirmative Action

80

70 College freshmen: Affirmative action in college admissions should be abolished 52% 50%

60

50

40

30

20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Cooperative Institutional Research Program, Higher Education Research Institute, and University of California Los Angeles, latest that of 2010.

Now For Some Fun: Where Congress Really Stands

Q: What do you have a higher opinion of: Congress or . . . ? Congress 45% 45 32 29 19 49 32 48 61 53 45 31 54 Congress 31% 34 43 43 42 60 37 37 57 32 53 23 Telemarketers John Edwards Root canals NFL replacement refs Lice The Kardashians Nickelback Lobbyists North Korea Ebola Lindsey Lohan Colonoscopies Fidel Castro 35% 29 56 56 67 36 39 30 26 25 41 58 32 Carnies Traffic jams Cockroaches Playground bullies Donald Trump Meth labs France Genghis Khan Communism Used car salesman Gonorrhea Brussel sprouts [sic] 39% 56 45 38 44 21 46 41 23 57 28 69

Source: Public Policy Polling, January 2012.

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