STA 6166, Section 8489, Fall 2007, Homework #2, Due September 27, 2007

Student Name: Ramin Shamshiri

UFID#: 9021-3353

Ramin Shamshiri

STA6166 Homework#2,

Due. Sep.27.2007

B) Please read the two papers, Palleroni and Hauser (2003) and Arnold et al. (2002), that are attached. For each paper answer the following questions: Fluorescent Signaling in Parrots a. Is the study observational or experimental? Answer: Experiment b. What factors or explanatory variables are they interested in studying for their affects on the animals? Answer: Fluorescent plumage, UV reflectance c. What variables are they measuring on the animals? Answer: Sexual and social choice

d. State in words all sets of hypotheses that the authors are interested in testing (note that the authors could be interested in more than one set of hypotheses!) Answer: H0: there is no sexual preference for fluorescence between parrot sexes HA: there is sexual preference for fluorescence between parrot sexes H0: there is social preference for fluorescence between same sexes of parrots HA: there is no social preference for fluorescence between same sexes of parrots

e. Restate all sets of hypotheses in statistical terms, i.e. in terms of the population parameters that are believed to be affected by the treatments. Answer: H0: psexual preference 0.05 HA: psexual preference < 0.05 H0: psocial preference 0.5 HA: psocial preference > 0.5

Ramin Shamshiri

STA6166 Homework#2,

Due. Sep.27.2007

Experience-Dependent Plasticity for Auditory Processing in a Raptor a. Is the study observational or experimental? Answer: Observational b. What factors or explanatory variables are they interested in studying for their affects on the animals? a. Answer: - Experienced subject and Naive subject

c. What variables are they measuring on the animals? Answer: They measure Auditory processing

d. State in words all sets of hypotheses that the authors are interested in testing (note that the authors could be interested in more than one set of hypotheses!) Answer: H0: Experience affects auditory processing in harpy eagles HA: Experience has little effect on auditory processing in harpy eagles

e. Restate all sets of hypotheses in statistical terms, i.e. in terms of the population parameters that are believed to be affected by the treatments. Answer: Ho: p < 0.001 HA: p 0.001

Ramin Shamshiri

STA6166 Homework#2,

Due. Sep.27.2007

C) Use the three approaches we learned in class (histograms, Q-Q plots, and hypothesis testing) for determining if the sample data support the argument that the populations of FRACTION and L_FRACTION are Normally Distributed.

Statistic Mean

FRACTION

Variance Standard Deviation 95% Coefficient Interval

0.686 0.002592 0.050911688 0.029812943

L_FRACTION -0.37826 0.005518 0.074284 0.042114

Fraction Histogram

L_Fraction Histogram

Ramin Shamshiri

STA6166 Homework#2,

Due. Sep.27.2007

Histogram:
35

30

25

P e r c e n t

20

15

10

0 0. 36 0. 48 0. 6 0. 72 f r act i on 0. 84 0. 96 1. 08

Fraction Histogram: Mostly Normal, with a little skewd to the left

35

30

25

P e r c e n t

20

15

10

0 - 0. 975 - 0. 825 - 0. 675 - 0. 525 - 0. 375 - 0. 225 - 0. 075 0. 075

l _f r act i on

L_Fraction Histogram: Not Normal, Skewed to the left

Ramin Shamshiri

STA6166 Homework#2,

Due. Sep.27.2007

Q-Q Plot: Fraction

1. 2

1. 0

f r a c t i o n

0. 8

0. 6

0. 4

0. 2 -3 -2 -1 N m or al 0 Q uant i l es 1 2 3

1. 2

1. 0

f r a c t i o n

0. 8

0. 6

0. 4

0. 2 -3 -2 -1 N m or al 0 Q uant i l es 1 2 3

Fracton: Left end of the pattern is below the line and right end of pattern is also below the line, so we have long tail on the left and short tail on the right, So it is not Normal

Ramin Shamshiri

STA6166 Homework#2,

Due. Sep.27.2007

L_Fraction
0. 25

- 0. 25 l _ f r a c t i o n

- 0. 50

- 0. 75

- 1. 00

- 1. 25 -3 -2 -1 N m or al 0 Q uant i l es 1 2 3

0. 25

- 0. 25 l _ f r a c t i o n

- 0. 50

- 0. 75

- 1. 00

- 1. 25 -3 -2 -1 N m or al 0 Q uant i l es 1 2 3

L_Fracton: Left end of the pattern is very below the line and right end of pattern is also below the line, so we have a long tail on the left and a short tail on the right. (as observed in the Histogram), So it is not Normal

Ramin Shamshiri

STA6166 Homework#2,

Due. Sep.27.2007

Hypothesis testing: H0: the population has a specified theoretical distribution (Is Normal) : P>0.05 HA: the distribution is Not the theoretical distribution (Is not Normal) : P<0.05 So, based on the test result, we decide whether to reject H0 or not. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test shows that Pr>0.15 which is larger than 0.05, so Null hypothesis is not rejected for Fraction which means that the distribution is Normal. For L-fraction, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test shows that P>0.0137 which is smaller that 0.05, thus the Null hypothesis is rejected and the distribution is not Normal.
Tests for Normality (Fraction) Test Shapiro-Wilk Kolmogorov-Smirnov Cramer-von Mises Anderson-Darling --Statistic--W D W-Sq A-Sq 0.982163 0.066056 0.058087 0.379258 -----p Value-----Pr Pr Pr Pr < > > > W D W-Sq A-Sq 0.2751 >0.1500 >0.2500 >0.2500

Tests for Normality (L_Fraction) Test Shapiro-Wilk Kolmogorov-Smirnov Cramer-von Mises Anderson-Darling --Statistic--W D W-Sq A-Sq 0.921818 0.107913 0.218273 1.366205 -----p Value-----Pr Pr Pr Pr < > > > W D W-Sq A-Sq <0.0001 0.0137 <0.0050 <0.0050

Ramin Shamshiri

STA6166 Homework#2,

Due. Sep.27.2007

The UNIVARIATE Procedure Variable: l_fraction Moments N Mean Std Deviation Skewness Uncorrected SS Coeff Variation 87 -0.2619755 0.19759871 -1.2963243 9.32880233 -75.426408 Sum Weights Sum Observations Variance Kurtosis Corrected SS Std Error Mean 87 -22.791868 0.03904525 3.08046089 3.3578914 0.02118481 (l_fraction)

Basic Statistical Measures Location Mean Median Mode -0.26198 -0.23067 -0.26919 Variability Std Deviation Variance Range Interquartile Range 0.19760 0.03905 1.15493 0.24003

Basic Confidence Limits Assuming Normality Parameter Mean Std Deviation Variance Estimate -0.26198 0.19760 0.03905 95% Confidence Limits -0.30409 0.17197 0.02957 -0.21986 0.23228 0.05395

Tests for Location: Mu0=0 Test Student's t Sign Signed Rank -Statistict M S -12.3662 -37.5 -1875 -----p Value-----Pr > |t| Pr >= |M| Pr >= |S| <.0001 <.0001 <.0001

Tests for Normality Test Shapiro-Wilk Kolmogorov-Smirnov Cramer-von Mises Anderson-Darling --Statistic--W D W-Sq A-Sq 0.921818 0.107913 0.218273 1.366205 -----p Value-----Pr Pr Pr Pr < > > > W D W-Sq A-Sq <0.0001 0.0137 <0.0050 <0.0050

Ramin Shamshiri

STA6166 Homework#2,

Due. Sep.27.2007

The UNIVARIATE Procedure Variable: fraction Moments N Mean Std Deviation Skewness Uncorrected SS Coeff Variation 87 0.7833908 0.13988221 -0.4673428 55.074765 17.8559928 Sum Weights Sum Observations Variance Kurtosis Corrected SS Std Error Mean 87 68.155 0.01956703 0.66359871 1.68276471 0.01499695 (fraction)

Basic Statistical Measures Location Mean Median Mode 0.783391 0.794000 0.764000 Variability Std Deviation Variance Range Interquartile Range 0.13988 0.01957 0.76300 0.18800

Basic Confidence Limits Assuming Normality Parameter Mean Std Deviation Variance Estimate 0.78339 0.13988 0.01957 95% Confidence Limits 0.75358 0.12174 0.01482 0.81320 0.16443 0.02704

Tests for Location: Mu0=0 Test Student's t Sign Signed Rank -Statistict M S 52.23669 43.5 1914 -----p Value-----Pr > |t| Pr >= |M| Pr >= |S| <.0001 <.0001 <.0001

Tests for Normality Test Shapiro-Wilk Kolmogorov-Smirnov Cramer-von Mises Anderson-Darling --Statistic--W D W-Sq A-Sq 0.982163 0.066056 0.058087 0.379258 -----p Value-----Pr Pr Pr Pr < > > > W D W-Sq A-Sq 0.2751 >0.1500 >0.2500 >0.2500

Ramin Shamshiri

STA6166 Homework#2,

Due. Sep.27.2007

Concept Questions 1. If two events are mutually exclusive then P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B) Answer: True, Mutually exclusive means that two events can not occur simultaneously, or can not happen together which is equal to say P (A and B) = 0. As a conclusion, we have the two following results; if two events are independent, but NOT mutually exclusive, then P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B) if two events are independent, and mutually exclusive, then P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B) 2. If A and B are two events, then P (A and B) =P (A).P (B), no matter what the relation between A and B. Answer= False, P (A and B) =P (A).P (B) only if two events are independent. It should be noted that if two events are NOT independent, more complex methods must be applied. 3. The probability distribution function of a discrete random variable can not have a value greater than 1. Answer: True For P(y) to be considered as a discrete value of a variable Y, it should satisfy the following conditions; 0=<p(y) <=1 SUM [p(y)] =1 4. The probability distribution function of a continuous random variable can take on any value, even negative ones. Answer: False The probability distribution function of a continuous random variable f(y) does not give the probability that Y= y as did p(y) in the discrete case. This is because Y can take on an infinite number of values in an interval, and therefore it is impossible to assign a probability value for each y. In fact the value of f(y) is not a probability at all; hence f(y) can take any nonnegative value, including values greater than 1. 5. The probability that a continuous random variable lies in the interval 4 to 7, inclusively, is the sum of P(4)+P(5)+P(6)+P(7) Answer: False The probability the a continuous random variable lies in the interval 4 to 7 is equal to the area between the curve and horizontal axes from the values 4 to the value 7. 6. The variance of the number of success in a binomial experiment of n trails is 2=np(p-1) Answer: True

Ramin Shamshiri

STA6166 Homework#2,

Due. Sep.27.2007

7. A normal distribution is characterized by its mean and its degree of freedom. Answer: False A normal distribution has only two parameters, and and knowing the values of these two parameters completely determines the distribution. 8. The standard normal distribution has the mean zero and variance 2 Answer: False In the standard normal distribution, the Mean () is zero and =1 Practice Exercises 1- The weather forecast says there is a 40% chance of rain today and 30% chance of rain tomorrow. a. What is the chance of the rain on both days? Let Today: A Tomorrow: B Answer: Since the two events are independent, P (A and B) =P (A).P (B) So: The chance of the rain on both days= (0.4).(0.3)=0.12 or 12% b. What is the chance of rain on neither day? Answer: The chance of rain on neither day = (1 chance of rain on today).(1- chance of rain on tomorrow)= (0.6).(0.7)=0.42 or 42% c. What is the chance of rain on at least one day? Answer: Since the two events are NOT mutually exclusive, they can also happen together, so P(A or B)= P(A)+P(B)- P(A).P(B)= 0.4+0.3-0.12= 0.58 or 58% 2- The following is the probability distribution of the number of defects on a given contact lens produced in one shift on a production line: Number of defects: 0 1 2 3 4 Probability: 0.5 0.2 0.15 0.10 0.05 Let A be the event that one defect occurred, and B the event that 2, 3 or 4 effects occurred. Find: a. P(A) and P(B) Answer: P (A) =P (1) =0.2 P (B) =P (2 or 3 or 4) =P (2) +P (3) +P (4) =0.15+0.1+0.05=0.3 b. P(A and B) Answer: The events A and B are mutually exclusive, meaning that they can not happen together, so P (A and B) =0 c. P(A or B) : Answer: P (A or B) =P (A) +P (B) =0.2+0.3=0.5

Ramin Shamshiri

STA6166 Homework#2,

Due. Sep.27.2007

3- Using the distribution in Excersise 2, let the random variable Y be the number of defects on a contact lens randomly selected from lenses produced during the shift. a. Find the Mean and Variance of Y for the shift. Answer: Mean ()=SUM [y . p(y)] = [(0)(0.5)+(1)(0.2)+(2)(0.15)+(3)(0.1)+(4)(0.05)]=1 Variance () = SUM [(y-) 2 . p(y)] b. Assume that the lenses are produced independently. What is the probability that five lenses drawn randomly from the production line during the shift will be defect-free. Answer: P(y) = ( y.e-y)/y! = p (5) = 0.05615 4- Using the distribution in exercise 2, suppose that the lens can be sold as if there are no defects for 20$. If there is one defect, it can be reworked at a cost of 5$ and then sold. If there are two defects, it can be reworked at a cost of 10$ and then sold. If there are more than two defects, it must be scrapped. What is the expected revenue generated during the shift if 100 contact lenses are produced? Answer: The question can be considered as the expected revenue during the shift of producing 100 contact lenses, with the probability that 1 or 2 lenses are defected. P(1)=20% Reworked charge for 1 defect=5$ P(2)=15% Reworked charge for 2 defect2=10$ We know that =SUM (y.p(y)) so we will have: 5$(0.2)+10$(0.15)=1+1.5=2.5$ is the expected revenue in the process of producing 100 contact lenses. 5- Suppose that Y is a normally distributed random variable with =10 and =2, and X is an independent random variable, also normally distributed with =5 and =5 a. P(Y>12 and X<4) Answer: Since both variables are normally distributed, we can use the normal distribution rules and the appendix table. Transforming the Y and X value to the standard normal distribution Z, we have: Z=(y-)/

Ramin Shamshiri

STA6166 Homework#2,

Due. Sep.27.2007

Exercises 1- A lottery that sells 150,000 ticket has the following prize structure: (1)First prize of 50,000$ (2) 5 second prizes of 10,000$ (3) 25 third prizes of 1000$ (4) 1000 fourth prizes of 10$ a. Let Y be the winning amount of a randomly drawn lottery ticket. Describe the probability distribution of Y. Answer: If a ticket is drawn randomly from the total amount of150,000 ticket, there is a probability of 1/150,000 that it will be the first prize winner, and 5/150,000 that it becomes the 2nd prize winner and so on. 1+5+25+1000=1031 150,000-1031=148969 So the probability that a ticket wins NOTHING is 148969/150,000 Outcome 0: No Win 1st prize 2nd prize 3rd prize 4th prize Probability 148969/150,000=0.9931266 1/150,000=0.000006 5/150,000=0.00003 25/150,000=0.00015 1000/150,000=0.006 Winning Prize$ 0$ 50,000$ 10,000$ 1000$ 10$

b. Compute the Mean or expected value of the ticket Answer: =y.p(y) =[0.(0.9931266)+50,000.(0.000006)+10,000.(0.00003)+1000.(0.00015)+10.(0.006)] =0.81 c. If the ticket cost 1$, is the purchase of the ticket worthwhile? Answer: Calculating the expectation value of winning prize, considering that if there is no Win then there is a( -1$) prize, =[-1.(0.9931266)+50,000.(0.000006)+10000.(0.00003)+1000.(0.00015)+10.(0.006)] =(-0.9931266)+(0.3)+(0.3)+(0.15)+(0.06)=-0.1831266 Since the mean is negative, it does not worth to buy the ticket. d. Compute the standard deviation of this distribution, comment on the usefulness of the standard deviation as a measure of dispersion.

Ramin Shamshiri

STA6166 Homework#2,

Due. Sep.27.2007