Cycle or Trend?

A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be... - Albert Einstein

Senate Environment and Energy Committee

January 22, 2013

Signal Amidst the Noise

Serial entrepreneur
9 Minnesota companies

Signal Amidst the Noise

Serial entrepreneur
9 Minnesota companies If I dont respond to data & trends Im road-kill Applied this same discipline to weather and climate trends.

Responding to Data
Skeptical about climate trends in 80s

Responding to Data
Skeptical about climate trends in 80s 90s: saw fingerprints of climate change in Minnesotas day to day weather

Responding to Data
Skeptical about climate trends in 80s 90s: saw fingerprints of climate change in Minnesotas day to day weather Normal Weather had shifted Frequency/Intensity of Weather Extremes

An Accumulation of Coincidences
No Overnight Epiphany Tracking weather patterns Are we imagining more extremes?

An Accumulation of Coincidences
No Overnight Epiphany Tracking weather patterns Are we imagining more extremes? Why doubt climate scientists?

What motive to they have to mislead?

Skeptical of conspiracy theories

2012: Warmest Year On Record

Climate Central - NCDC

2012: Off the Charts

3.2 F. warmer than 20th century average

36 Years of Global Temps. Above 20th Century Avg.

NASA GISS 2012 anomalies above

9 Warmest Years Observed Since 2000

132 year NASA GISS record

2000-2010

Art Warner Art Warner Little Falls MN Little Falls MN

Warmest decade in 1,000 years

an accumulation of coincidences

2012: Record Arctic Sea Ice Loss

September 13, 2012

Melting Happening Faster Than Computer Models Predicted

Polar Amplification

Weather systems moving slower, spike in extreme weather events

Trends: More Volatility/Extremes

Climate Extreme Index: national extremes in moisture

Weather On Steroids

Barry Bonds: you cant prove any one of his 762 home runs was caused by steroids Steroids influenced base state

Weather On Steroids

No single storm can be blamed on climate change But are we loading the dice?

Weather On Steroids

Natural Disasters have increased 3-4X since 1980

133 Billion $$ Disasters since 1980

46 between 1980 and 1995 86 between 1996 and 2011

Sandy: Freak Hybrid Storm

5-7 sea level rise Ocean Temps: more typical of Jacksonville, Florida in October

Weather Whiplash

2011 7 month flood on Missouri River

2012 Worst drought since 1956

Warmer Atmosphere
Warmer air holds more water

4-5% increase in water vapor over oceans

1-Day Precipitation Trends

Warmer air holds

Every 1 C. warming = 20% more rainfall

3+ Downpours Across Upper Midwest Have Doubled Since 1964

Duluth, June 19-20, 2012

97%
of Peer-Reviewed, Published Climate Scientists see a link between Warming and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Symptom of Growth & Progress

"All truth goes through three stages. First it is ridiculed. Then it is violently opposed. Finally it is accepted as self-

evident.
Schoepenhouer

NOAA, NASA, National Academy of Science Insurance Industry U.S. Military

Confuse Divide - Delay

Organized effort to delay meaningful action Reminiscent of smoking debate in 70s Denial from special interests, even after Surgeon Generals report

No Warming Since 98?

Senator McCain
.recent trip to the Yukon a Native American Elder presented me with a 4,000 year old tomahawk that was recently discoveredmelting snow revealed this ancient artifactchances of this being a coincidenceslim to nil
2007

We will see cold & snow

Cant look out the window and make long-term, global assumptions

Tracking subtle, yet critically important long-term (global) trends

Slow Motion Transformation

Make a note of new species of birds, insects, plants and flowers that creep into your yard in the coming years and decades

USDA Plant Hardiness

MSP Metro now in Climate Zone 5

Fast-Forward Climate

Magnolia trees in full bloom on March 27, 2012

Fast-Forward Climate

Magnolia trees in full bloom on March 27, 2012 Business as Usual Scenario for 2090 in Minnesota
- Lee Frelich, U of MN Center for Hardwood Ecology

Minnesotas Shrinking Winters

30 Year Trend

Shorter winters Fewer subzero nights More midwinter rain/ice Inconsistent and sporadic snowfall across the state Thumbprints of warming

Heating Degree Days

Winter Lows Trending Milder

Coldest Winter Lows @ MSP since 1963

MN Min Temp. Trends

Minnesota Climate Office

Average Ice Out Date

Lake Superior Water Temps.

3.3F. warming during summer between 1979 and 2006

Minnesotas Extended Outlook

Increasingly Hot & Dry with More Extreme Rainfall Events

Minnesotas Quality of Life

Heavier rain, but falling more infrequently

Minnesotas Quality of Life

Heavier rain, but falling more infrequently Warming trend = increased evaporation

Climate Assessment Report

More frequent and intense Midwest heat waves
Degraded air and water quality More intense rainstorms and floods

Climate Assessment Report

More frequent and intense Midwest heat waves
Degraded air and water quality More intense rainstorms and floods More stress on Great Lakes

Increasing public health risks

Environmental Conservatism
Im proud of having been one of the first to recognize that States and the Federal Government have a duty to protect our natural resources from the damaging effects of pollution that can accompany industrial development."

Environmental Conservatism
Im proud of having been one of the first to recognize that States and the Federal Government have a duty to protect our natural resources from the damaging effects of pollution that can accompany industrial development."

Long Range Outlook:

Mitigating Climate Change Will Require a Level of Sustained Innovation and American Reinvention that will propel the USA Into a New Competitive Paradigm

We Are Accountable

Man has been appointed as a steward for the management of Gods property, and ultimately he will give account for his stewardship Luke 16:2

We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, We borrow it from our children.
- Native American Proverb