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CRISIS OF TRUST

A Growing Crisis of Trust is eroding Confidence and fostering slowing Capital Investment.
Though on the surface, Global Risk has decreased by traditional measures such as Credit Default
Swap rates, LIBOR-OIS, Ted Spread etc., there are many divergences that are historically major
indicators of serious problems ahead. The unprecedented moves by the central banks of the US, EU,
Japan (and indications by the UK) to establish a policy of 'unlimited' monetary expansion have
distorted many traditional macro analytics. Markets as a consequence are mispricing risk. Earnings
for Q4 2012 are presently coming in below expectations, top line revenue growth is under pressure,
and the Global Consumer Confidence indicators as reported by Nielsen are falling precipitously.
There appears to be an abrupt re-alignment of risk sentiment looming before the Ides of March.

GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - FEBRUARY 2013

1/26/2013

1 February 2013 Edition


Copyright 2012 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

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CRISIS OF TRUST
A Growing Crisis of Trust is Eroding Confidence and Fostering Slowing Capital Investment
GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - FEBRUARY 2013
TIPPING POINTS ........................................................................................................................ 9
GLOBAL MACRO: RISK ASSESSMENT ...................................................................................................................................................... 9
SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................................................................... 9
POSITIONAL FRAMEWORK: "WE ARE HERE!" ......................................................................................................................................................... 9
Q1 2013 DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH ..................................................................................................................................................................... 10
GLOBAL TRENDS - NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL ................................................................................................................................... 19
A BROKEN PONZI SCHEME - BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP .......................................................................................................................... 21
RISK CONTINUUM ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23

MACRO MONITORING INSTITUTIONS ............................................................................................................................... 24


WEF (WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM) .......................................................................................................................................................................... 24
IMF (INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND) .............................................................................................................................................................. 39
OECD (ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION & DEVELOPMENT) .............................................................................................. 54
NIELSEN (GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CONCERNS & SPENDING INTENTIONS) .......................................................................... 56
MAPLECROFT (SCANNING THE GLOBE) ................................................................................................................................................................ 67

GLOBAL RISK SIGNALS ...................................................................................................................................................... 69


RISK - SIGNS APLENTY, BUT NO ONE PANICKING - YET! .................................................................................................................................. 71
RISK - CANARIES SINGING AGAIN ........................................................................................................................................................................... 73
RISK - COMPLACENCY & REPRESSED FEAR ........................................................................................................................................................ 74
RISK - CENTER OF GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SHIFTING AWAY FROM DEVELOPED COUNTRIES....................................................... 75
RISK - TIED TO EU IN 2012 ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 76
RISK - GLOBAL DERIVATIVE COLLATERAL ............................................................................................................................................................ 77
RISK - GLOBAL IMBALANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG WITH FRAGILITY..................................................................................... 79
RISK - GLOBAL RISK MATRIX..................................................................................................................................................................................... 81
RISK - GLOBAL MACRO HEADWINDS / TAILWINDS .............................................................................................................................................. 82
RISK - FOOD A GROWING GLOBAL INFLATION & SOCIAL UNREST RISK ...................................................................................................... 83
RISK - SLOWING GLOBAL ECONOMIES .................................................................................................................................................................. 88
RISK - INCREASINGLY DYSFUNCTIONAL CAPITALS MARKETS ....................................................................................................................... 90
RISK - RISING GEO-POLITICAL EVENT RISK.......................................................................................................................................................... 92

GLOBAL MACRO: RISK LEVELS ................................................................................................................................................................ 96


AGGREGATED GLOBAL FINANCIAL RISK INDEX.............................................................................................................. 96
BANKING RISK - LIBOR-OIS SPREAD (Updated) .................................................................................................................................................... 97
BANKING RISK - TED SPREAD (Updated) ................................................................................................................................................................ 97
CREDIT RISK - GLOBAL CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS (Updated) .......................................................................................................................... 98
CREDIT RISK - EU CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS (Updated) ..................................................................................................................................... 99
CONSUMER RISK - HOUSING - RATE OF CHANGE (Reference) ...................................................................................................................... 100
ECONOMIC RISK - ECRI LEADING INDEX (Updated) ........................................................................................................................................... 101
INFLATION RISK - MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH - M3 (Updated) .......................................................................................................................... 102
INFLATION RISK - MONEY VELOCITY (Updated) .................................................................................................................................................. 103
MONETARY RISK - BANK LIABILITIES (Updated) ................................................................................................................................................. 103
COST OF MONEY RISK - INTEREST RATES (Updated)...................................................................................................................................... 105

AGGREGATED RISK LEVEL .............................................................................................................................................. 107


TIPPING POINTS: CHANGES .................................................................................................................................................................... 108
TIPPING POINT MAPPING: 2013 UPDATE ........................................................................................................................ 108
TIPPING POINTS: TOP 5 FOCUS - FEBRUARY 2013 .......................................................................................................................... 117
I - RISK REVERSAL............................................................................................................................................................ 117
II - JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION ............................................................................................................................................ 120
III-BOND BUBBLE .............................................................................................................................................................. 123
IV - EU BANKING CRISIS ................................................................................................................................................... 123
V - SOVEREIGN DEBT ....................................................................................................................................................... 124
VI - CHINA HARD LANDING ............................................................................................................................................... 126

February 2013 Edition


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DRIVER$: RISK-ON - RISK-OFF ANALYTICS ......................................................................................................................................... 130


1- G10 MACRO SURPRISE INDEX .................................................................................................................................... 133
2- CUMULATIVE GLOBAL PMI........................................................................................................................................... 136
3- SLOWING GLOBAL EXPORTS ...................................................................................................................................... 142
4- US NON-REVOLVING CONSUMER CREDIT................................................................................................................. 145
5- IBES' RELATIVE GLOBAL PE RATIOS .......................................................................................................................... 148
6- CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES - Sell Side Analysts .......................................................................................... 154
7- INFLATION PRESSURES - Global Food Prices.............................................................................................................. 156

GLOBAL MACRO ................................................................................................................... 160


GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK .............................................................................................................................................................. 162
IMF CUTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK..................................................................................................................................... 162
IMF Cuts Advanced Economies Growth by 25% from 2.0% to 1.5% ............................................................................................................... 162
IMF Cuts Growth from 3.9% to 3.6% and Increases Deficit Multiplier by 100 to 200% ................................................................................ 169

WARNINGS ........................................................................................................................................................................ 172


IMF WARNS ....................................................................................................................................................................... 172
Japanese & Spanish Debt Unsustainable .................................................................................................................................................................. 172
Global Recovery Faltering, Reduces Global Growth to Just Above 3% Global Recession Level ....................................................................... 174

BIS WARNS ........................................................................................................................................................................ 176


Monetary Policy At Its Limits ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 176

WORLD BANK WARNS ...................................................................................................................................................... 177


Social Unrest Stems from Shrinking Disposable Income. Jobs are the central issue. ............................................................................... 177

GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKING ................................................................................................................................................................... 179


Global Balance Sheet Expansion ............................................................................................................................................................................ 179
First Remove Gold Standard, Now Remove Debt ................................................................................................................................................ 182

GLOBAL INDICATORS ............................................................................................................................................................................... 185


GROWTH............................................................................................................................................................................ 185
Slowing Global Growth - Air Cargo Shipments ......................................................................................................................................................... 185
Global Slwoing- Export / Import Confirmations ..................................................................................................................................................... 186
Further Confirmations Global Growth Has Collapsed ........................................................................................................................................ 187
Europe Continues to Force Global Growth Estimate Reductions ........................................................................................................................... 188
GDP Reductions - By Region ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 189
Manufacturing PMI - By Country ................................................................................................................................................................................ 196

SENTIMENT ....................................................................................................................................................................... 199


Europe has a Growing Sentiment /Confidence Problem .......................................................................................................................................... 199

CREDIT MARKETS............................................................................................................................................................. 206


Stable but Tenuous ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 206

INFLATION ......................................................................................................................................................................... 208


Food Prices, Driver of Social Unrest ........................................................................................................................................................................ 208
Where Do these Deflators Come From? .................................................................................................................................................................... 209

TRENDS ............................................................................................................................................................................. 210


Commodities and Brands Tell the Global Story......................................................................................................................................................... 210

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 222


IRAN ................................................................................................................................................................................... 222
Watch Out for a "False Flag" or "Covert" Activity Event ................................................................................................................................... 222
Who Is Threatening Who Here? ............................................................................................................................................................................... 222

CURRENCY WARS ............................................................................................................................................................ 224


The Race to Debase .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 224

EUROPE - MUDDLE STAGE ENDS - CRISIS STAGE BEGINS ........................................................................................................................ 226


SUMMITS ........................................................................................................................................................................... 227
The 20th Summit ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 227
Muddle" Stage has ended. "Crisis" Stage has Begun ........................................................................................................................................ 227
A Banking Union & Central Budget ........................................................................................................................................................................ 229
Government Debt Dynamics Interactive Model .................................................................................................................................................... 230
Roadmap of EU Hurdles and Surprises Ahead .................................................................................................................................................... 231
"19th Nervous Breakdown" .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 233

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MEDICAL CHARTS - Situation Critical ............................................................................................................................... 240


Perceived Reduction in Risk - A Temporary Aberration ........................................................................................................................................... 240
Dangerous Delusional Divergences ............................................................................................................................................................................ 242
IMF Projections for Euro Area and GIIPS .................................................................................................................................................................. 243
Euro-Area Manufacturing Shrank in September ....................................................................................................................................................... 244
Misery Indices Never Been Higher.............................................................................................................................................................................. 244

EUROSIS - A Terminal Disease ........................................................................................................................................ 252


PROGNOSIS: Why the European Situation Will Get Worse ................................................................................................................................... 252
PROGNOSIS: Increasing Structural Imbalances ...................................................................................................................................................... 255
PROGNOSIS: $22T Unaccounted - A Hidden World of Contingent Liabilities, Government Backing & Guarantees. ................................... 257
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB's LTRO Not a Solution but ................................................................................................................ 262
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB's SMP Effort Futile ............................................................................................................................. 265
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB Accepts BBB Collateral ..................................................................................................................... 267
PROGNOSIS: EU Banking Overbanked, Undercapitalized and Now Insolvent .................................................................................................... 268
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - TARGET2 "Contingent Liabilities"............................................................................................................. 269
PROGNOSIS: Bailouts - Unsustainable & Unfundable ............................................................................................................................................ 275

IBERIAN PENINSULA - Spain & Portugal Imploding ........................................................................................................... 277


Credit Downgrades - At Precipice of "Non Investment Grade" ................................................................................................................................ 277
Regional Bailout Bailouts a Massive Problem ........................................................................................................................................................... 278
NPL Going Ballistic ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 279
Spanish Funding Problem ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 280
Banks on Artificial "Ponzi Bond" Life Support ............................................................................................................................................................ 290

ITALY - Cracks Impossible to Hide and Contain .................................................................................................................. 297


Bad Debt Continue to Soar .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 297

UK ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 302
QE Extension Coming .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 302

FRANCE ............................................................................................................................................................................. 304


Has Turned back to Socialism ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 304

ASIA - CHINA-JAPAN CONFLICT EMERGES ................................................................................................................................................... 306


CHINA - POLITICAL TRANSITION ..................................................................................................................................... 308
China' Political Transition & Ongoing Emergence as a Super Power ..................................................................................................................... 310
An Implicit Social Contract ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 312
China Manipulated Statistics due to Upcoming Decade Long Regime Change .................................................................................................... 314
Declining Reserve Accumulation................................................................................................................................................................................. 315
China Has Caught the Gold Bug big time! ................................................................................................................................................................. 317
Increasing Leverage is China's Way of Monetary Easing ........................................................................................................................................ 318
Possible Interest-Rate Liberalization .......................................................................................................................................................................... 319
Shanghai Composite at 2008 Low Levels .................................................................................................................................................................. 320
Shanghai Composite Warnings Signs ........................................................................................................................................................................ 321
China's Credit to GDP .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 323
A Slow Recovery Through 2013 .................................................................................................................................................................................. 324
Manufacturing PMI in Contraction Territory ............................................................................................................................................................... 326
SHADOW BANKING .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 327
Shadow Banking System Report ............................................................................................................................................................................. 327
Shadow Banking in China ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 328
Socit General Sees a Likely Soft Landing! ............................................................................................................................................................ 329

JAPAN: AUTO EXPORTS TO CHINA PLUMMET 44.5%. JAPAN'S LARGEST EXPORT MARKET ................................... 337
Exports Continue To Tumble ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 339
Intervention Fails Again - It's a Whole new Ball Game ............................................................................................................................................. 340
Japan in Negative PMI and GDP Territory ................................................................................................................................................................. 342

EMERGING MARKETS - SYNCHRONIZED MARKETS ................................................................................................................................. 345


Synchronized Markets .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 346
Export Growth Looks Similar to pre-2008 .................................................................................................................................................................. 348
Global Slowing: A Quickly Worsening Situation Across Asia................................................................................................................................... 349
Risks All on the Downside for Asia ............................................................................................................................................................................. 350
Demographic Headwinds ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 353
Pronounced Flight to Safety......................................................................................................................................................................................... 354
India: Watch Out For RE-Emergence of Food Price Inflation .................................................................................................................................. 355

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THE GLOBAL MACRO OVERLAY ............................................................................................................................................................. 358


MACRO POSITIONING: A Serious Global Slowdown Underway ........................................................................................ 358
MACRO POSITIONING: Credit Fueled Globalization in Retreat .......................................................................................... 362
MACRO POSITIONING: Notion of Eurozone "Decoupling" Has Ended. .............................................................................. 364
MACRO POSITIONING: Nielsen's Global Survey - "Consumers Cutting Back & Worrying about a Recession" ................... 367
MACRO POSITIONING: Executives Report Deteriorating Economic Environment .............................................................. 370
PROSPERITY AT RISK: Harvard Strategy Study Spells Out US Problem ........................................................................... 373

US INVESTMENT CYCLE........................................................................................................................................................................... 377


GORD'S BIG PICTURE ECONOMIC CYCLE ...................................................................................................................... 377
ECONOMIC INDICATORS.................................................................................................................................................. 378
MONTHLY INDICATORS OF NOTE .......................................................................................................................................................................... 378

THE CURRENT BUSINESS CYCLE - SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS ....................................................................................... 384


ECONOMIC CYCLE, INVESTMENT CYCLE, SECTOR ROTATION .................................................................................................................... 384
JOBS - CONFIDENCE - CONSUMPTION - GROWTH CYCLE ............................................................................................................................. 388
JOBS .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 389
CONSUMER & BUSINESS SENTIMENT .................................................................................................................................................................. 398
CONSUMPTION ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 415
GROWTH ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 429

US GOVERNMENT SURRENDERS 'RISK FREE" .................................................................................................................................. 441


Exorbitant Privilege ............................................................................................................................................................. 441
US Firmly in Stage 5 of the "Sovereign Life Cycle" .............................................................................................................. 446
The Price of Political Chicanery ........................................................................................................................................... 449
"Kick the Can" Politics .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 449

US PUBLIC POLICY - SOME NOTABLE POLICY PROBLEMS............................................................................................................. 450


POLICY: Congressman Ron Paul's Farewell Speech to Congress ...................................................................................... 452
POLICY: Credit Growth Solely Government Funded ........................................................................................................... 457
POLICY: Government's Consumption Spending versus Investment Spending .................................................................... 459
POLICY: FHA is a Case Study in Failed Public Policy ......................................................................................................... 461
POLICY: What Was Intentionally Avoided During the Election Promises By Both Parties .................................................... 465
What about the $84T in Unfunded Federal Entitlements? ....................................................................................................................................... 465
What about the $5T in Unfunded State & Local Government Pension Obligations? ............................................................................................ 466
What about the $1T in Student Loan Bubble? ........................................................................................................................................................... 469
What about the ...... ? ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 470

POLICY: Failure to Recognize & Alter Policy When it is Clearly Not Working ...................................................................... 470
Stimulus Hasn't Worked. It is Camouflaging Something Deeper ..................................................................................................................... 475

POLICY: A Capitalist System No Longer Realistically Operate When the State Borrows at a Negative Cost ....................... 477
MONETARY POLICY - ELECTILE DYSFUNCTIONAL .................................................................................................................................... 480
HIGHLIGHTS ...................................................................................................................................................................... 480
QE III POST MORTEM - BROKEN FED MODEL ................................................................................................................ 482
POST MORTEM: Market Reacts Badly...................................................................................................................................................................... 482
POST MORTEM: Currency War Salvos & The $67T Shadow Banking Currency Cartel ..................................................................................... 484
POST MORTEM: Fed's Broken Model ....................................................................................................................................................................... 493
POST MORTEM: QEfinity Working Psychologically the same as 1987 Pre-Crash Portfolio Insurance ............................................................ 495

FED'S NEXT STEP ............................................................................................................................................................. 497


NEXT STEP: Current Fed Thinking ............................................................................................................................................................................ 497
NEXT STEP: Fed Lays Foundation for Further Policy Changes ............................................................................................................................. 498
NEXT STEP: High Probability Direction ..................................................................................................................................................................... 504
NEXT STEP: Communications to Ensure "Duration" Understood .......................................................................................................................... 506

FED INDICATORS .............................................................................................................................................................. 507


PATTERNS: Velocity of Money ................................................................................................................................................................................... 507
PATTERNS: Real Negative Rates .............................................................................................................................................................................. 509
PATTERNS: Short Interest Rates a Fed Problem .................................................................................................................................................... 511
CHARTS: Fed Deliberately ignoring data on both growth and inflation .................................................................................................................. 512

FISCAL POLICY - FROM POLITICAL POLLING TO POLITICAL BRINKSMANSHIP ......................................................................... 515


HIGHLIGHTS ...................................................................................................................................................................... 515

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TIMELINE: Calendar of Events Ahead ................................................................................................................................ 519


PREDICTIONS.................................................................................................................................................................... 520
PREDICTION: The High Probability Outcome .......................................................................................................................................................... 520
PREDICTION: Political Brinksmanship & Vigilantes ................................................................................................................................................. 521
PREDICTION: US Unwittingly Surrenders "Risk Fee" Status.................................................................................................................................. 529

PERSPECTIVES................................................................................................................................................................. 530
PERSPECTIVE: One Non-Mainstream Analyst's Views .......................................................................................................................................... 530
PERSPECTIVE: One Mainstream Analyst's Views .................................................................................................................................................. 533
PERSPECTIVE: A Collection of Wall Street Views................................................................................................................................................... 538
PERSPECTIVE: Barron's Weigh In ............................................................................................................................................................................ 540
PERSPECTIVE: Goldman's Fiscal Cliff Scenarios ................................................................................................................................................... 543

CHARTS ............................................................................................................................................................................. 547


KEY CHARTS: Growth & Jobs .................................................................................................................................................................................... 547
KEY CHARTS: Taxes & Spending .............................................................................................................................................................................. 550
KEY CHARTS: Politics & Policy .................................................................................................................................................................................. 553
KEY CHARTS: The Stakes .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 554
KEY CHARTS: Payroll Tax Holiday ............................................................................................................................................................................ 557
CHARTS: Tax Rate Comparisons ............................................................................................................................................................................... 558
CHARTS: Risk Perceptions ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 559
CHARTS: 2013 Quarterly Impact ................................................................................................................................................................................ 560
CHARTS: Budget Deficit .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 561
CHARTS: Sovereign Debt ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 563
CHARTS: State & Local Government Drag ............................................................................................................................................................... 564
CHARTS: Government Dependence .......................................................................................................................................................................... 567
CHARTS: Coming Demographic Shock ..................................................................................................................................................................... 567

TREASURY FUNDING ....................................................................................................................................................... 570


TREASURY DEBT: Latest TIC Table ......................................................................................................................................................................... 570
TREASURY DEBT: Who is Buying? ........................................................................................................................................................................... 571

BUDGET ............................................................................................................................................................................. 573


STATEMENTS: As A Corporation it is Both Insolvent & Exhibits Fraudulent GAAP Accounting Practices ....................................................... 573
QUARTERLY US BUDGET UPDATE ........................................................................................................................................................................ 580

KEY DRIVERS - CATALYSTS OF CHANGE ............................................................................................................................................ 585


EMPLOYMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 589
1- CAPITAL SPENDING .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 589
2- SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM .............................................................................................................................................................................. 592
3- DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 596
RESEARCH OF NOTE................................................................................................................................................................................................. 601

REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME ............................................................................................................................................ 606


RESEARCH OF NOTE................................................................................................................................................................................................. 610

US RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE ...................................................................................................................................... 615


OVERVIEW.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 615
CURRENT SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................................................................................... 619
CURRENT HOME OWNERSHIP TRENDS ............................................................................................................................................................... 619
NEW HOME SALES - Not as Strong as Headlines & Excitement Suggests ......................................................................................................... 623
HOUSING - Potentially Increasing Supply v Demand Problem ............................................................................................................................... 627
NATIONAL STATISTICS: PRICE ............................................................................................................................................................................... 629
NATIONAL STATISTICS: EXISITNG HOME SALES ............................................................................................................................................... 631
NATIONAL STATISTICS: NEW HOME SALES ........................................................................................................................................................ 633
RESEARCH OF NOTE................................................................................................................................................................................................. 634

US COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE ..................................................................................................................................... 640


OVERVIEW.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 640
NATIONAL STATISTICS: COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE...................................................................................................................................... 641
RESEARCH OF NOTE................................................................................................................................................................................................. 642

CAPITAL SHRUGGED ................................................................................................................................................................................ 646

February 2013 Edition


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February 2013 Edition


7

Copyright 2012 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential


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MONTHLY PROCESS OF ABSTRACTION


The Global Macro Tipping Points (GMTP) Service is an integral part of our monthly Process of Abstraction research
methodology. The process starts monthly with the Tipping Points and completes with a final Synthesis. The
sequence is optimized to align with the established Macro Economic Data releases.

Plan

Release
Date

III.

Monday following
3rd Saturday
of the Month

IV.

II.

1st Day of the


Month

Day Following
Monthly Labor
Report
(~ 1st Saturday)

Service

Coverage

Tipping Points

Tipping Points

Abstraction

Global Macro

Abstraction

US Economy

Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

Market Analytics

Fundamental Analysis

Market Analytics

Risk Analysis

Synthesis

Commentary

Synthesis

Commentary

Thesis

Conclusions

Global Macro Tipping Points


(GMTP)

Market Analytics & Technical


Analysis (MTA)

Monthly Market Commentary


(MMC)

February 2013 Edition


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Focus

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