Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| January 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| January 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Brazil's 2012-13 soybean crop estimated at 84.7 MT- SAFRAS
Agricultural analysts Safras & Mercado have increased their estimate for 2012-13 soybean crop to 84.7 million tons from their December estimate of 84.3 million tons. Reportedly, the total planted area has expanded by 9 per cent from last season to 27.5 million hectares from 25.3 million. Yields are expected to be around 3.08 tonnes per hectare as compared to 2.69 tonnes last season. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Jan 28, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

20103 6075 54.06 96.44 1652

0.00 0.00 0.47 0.58 -0.24

0.01 -0.12 0.52 0.92 -2.03

3.48 2.87 -1.71 5.03 -1.34

19.21 19.41 8.98 -2.37 -4.54

Sugar mills body hikes output estimate to 24.3 mt

The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has revised sugar production estimate upwards to 24.3 mt (mt) from its earlier projection of 24 mt on higher than expected output in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. In Uttar Pradesh, the largest sugarcane producing State, the output is expected to touch 8.1 mt, up from the earlier estimate of 7.9 mt. In Maharashtra, the output is expected to reach 6.8 mt, up from the earlier projection of 6.5 mt. So far, Maharashtra has produced 3.3 mt of the sweetener. In Karnataka, the sugar output is expected to touch 3.2 mt from the earlier 3 mt as the northern part of the state has more cane on the fields. However, in Tamil Nadu, the sugar output may be lower due to the drought-like conditions which may impact the yields and recovery. ISMA has reduced the output forecast to 2.2 mt from the earlier estimate to 2.55 mt. (Source: Business Line)

.Source: Reuters

Icrisat-led global team decodes genome sequence of chickpea

In a major breakthrough, a team of global scientists led by the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics have decoded the genome sequence of chickpea or chana. The genome sequencing would help plant breeders develop newer varieties that can yield more and are drought and disease tolerant. The development assumes significance as India is the largest producer, consumer and importer of chickpea. It will be a boon to small farmers as genome sequencing will play a crucial role in accelerating the development of new and improved varieties, said William Dar, Director-General, ICRISAT. Genome sequencing could help raise the yield potential to about 2 tns per hectare from the current 1 tn per ha, he said. (Source: Business Line)

India to harvest wheat close to last year's record: Government

Wheat output is likely to be close to last year's record level of 93.90 mt and conducive weather in the next two months is crucial for better yields, Agriculture Secretary Ashish Bahuguna said today. He also said that the final food grains production estimate for last year would be revised upward by less than one per cent from the earlier estimated alltime high of 257.44 mt. "I am hopeful of achieving last year's wheat output level. Gains in crop yields would depend on good weather in February-March," Bahuguna told reporters. Bahuguna said, "Sowing of major rabi crops including wheat is almost over now. Wheat area is down by 0.4 lakh hectare as compared to last year. If you compared with average acreage in the last five years, the area coverage is higher by 4.1 lakh hectares. There is nothing to worry". According to official data, area sown under wheat has declined to 294.98 lakh hectares so far in the current rabi season, from 295.93 lakh hectares in the year-ago period. States like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are likely to be affected as area under rabi crops are lower, while Karnataka, Rajasthan and Gujarat (which suffered drought during Kharif season) are doing well, he said. (Source: Economic Times)

Argentina corn, soy areas getting thirsty, little rain seen

Argentine farmers are watching the cloudless Pampas horizon for signs they might get the rain they need to help replenish world corn and soybean stocks depleted by a poor U.S. grains harvest. Weather maps show little reason for optimism in the world's No. 3 corn and soybean exporter. Agronomists say it is still possible for the South American grains powerhouse to come through with record harvests this season, but those expectations depend on February being a lot wetter than January has been. "It's not an easy situation right now," Tomas Parenti, an agronomist at the Rosario grains exchange, said on Monday. "The crops in a lot of areas are still in good shape, but the weather forecasts are not encouraging." Last season's harvests were reduced by a drought that struck corn and soy fields just as they entered their delicate flowering stages. The current season started with unusually harsh rains that flooded wide swathes of the Pampas grains belt. (Source: Reuters)

Wheat ratings deteriorate across U.S. Plains

Winter wheat conditions across the U.S. Plains worsened in January as the drought in that key production region showed no signs of ending, according to reports by the U.S. Agriculture Department's National Agricultural Statistics Service issued on Monday. In Kansas, the top winter wheat-production state in the country, the crop was rated 20% good to excellent as of Jan. 27, down 4 percentage points from the end of December. No areas of the state received more than an inch of moisture during the past month, according to NASS's Kansas field office. Temperatures around the state averaged 2 to 5 degrees above normal which further depleted moisture supplies in the soil. (Source: Reuters)

Centre sanctions Rs 60 cr for agri insurance claims in AP

The Union Government has released Rs 60 crore to Andhra Pradesh towards its contribution under the national crop insurance scheme for the 2011 kharif. This had been pending for a few months. Agriculture Minister Kanna Lakshminarayana had written to Union Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar, reminding him about the pending insurance amount. Responding to this, the Centre has released the funds, a State Government release said here on Monday. The Andhra Pradesh Government had disbursed Rs 181 crore for farmers who suffered heavily that kharif. (Source: Business Line)

Rain shift favors Brazil soy harvest, now at 3 pct

The latest forecasts favor Brazil's expected record soybean crop as they predict rain will move out of the center-west region to allow the harvest to continue and move to the south where dry fields need the moisture. Local crop analysts Celeres said on Monday that Brazil had harvested 3% of the crop as of last week, with the bulk of the harvest coming from the top two producing states of Mato Grosso and Parana -- at 6% and 5% respectively. Last year at this time, Mato Grosso had collected 3% and Parana 4% of its crop, Celeres said in its weekly report. Brazil is forecast to surpass the United States as the No. 1 exporter and producer of soybeans this season, with a record 85-mn-tn crop which has already begun to be harvested in the top soy growing state Mato Grosso. (Source:
Reuters)

Foodgrain output may touch 250 mt on better rabi harvest

Despite the erratic monsoon, the countrys foodgrain production in the current crop year may touch the targetted 250 mt. We are aiming for 250 mt this year. Though total foodgrain production cannot be the same as last year the kharif output is seen better-than-expected, Agriculture Secretary, Ashish Bahuguna, told. The Agriculture Secretary maintained that certain crops such as sunflower, jowar and bajra were facing stress. Rice transplantation was at a sluggish pace due to the poor availability of water in states such as Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, he said. (Source:
Business Line)

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| January 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures corrected marginally yesterday after gaining in the previous two sessions on account of profit booking. Reports of extreme cold and ground frost in north India may hamper chana cop yield. The spot settled unchanged while the Futures settled 0.52% lower on Monday. Although chana prices witnessed 17% gains in 2012 on the back of lower availability, sentiments prices remained under downside pressure during the period December 2012 till mid January 2013 on account of continuous supplies of imported chana from Australia coupled with higher output expectations.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3950 3605 Prev day 0.00 -0.52

as on Jan 28, 2013 % change WoW MoM 0.98 0.67 1.26 -6.12 YoY 23.44 14.08

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX April contract

Sowing progress
Total pulses acreage as on 18th Jan 2013 stood at 1142.33 lakh ha, down by 0.6% yoy. As on 11th Jan 2013, pulses acreage was up by 0.4%. Chana sowing is almost complete and acreage so far is at 91.9 lakh ha, up by 3.4% as on 18th Jan. Chana acreage is marginally higher by 3% this year in Rajasthan at 14.80 lakh ha, In Maharashtra, Chana acreage is up at 10.92 lakh ha as on 11th Jan 2013 vs normal area of 10.6 lakh ha and 2012 area of 7.04 lakh ha. While in AP it is up at 7.14 lakh ha as on 11th Jan 2013, up by 26%. (Source: State farm dept)

Demand supply fundamentals

Although Farm ministry has targeted 7.9 mn tn Chana output for 2012-13 season, higher compared to 7.58 mn tn in 2011-12, the final output would depend on the weather conditions in the major growing regions. Chana fresh crop arrivals have started in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and in small quantities in Maharashtra too. However, arrival pressure will built up February onwards when harvesting commence in MP. According to the first advance estimates of 2012-13 season, kharif pulses output is estimated lower by 14.6% at 5.26 million tonnes compared with 6.16 mn tn last year. The Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP) has suggested 10 per cent import duty on pulses to encourage domestic production. in the first six months of the new fiscal that is from April to September this year, imports were an estimated 12 lakh tonnes. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Jan 29, 2013 Resistance 3625-3645

3560-3582

Trade Scenario
In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record of around 746000 tones as compared with 485000 tons in 2011-12. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

Outlook
Chana Futures is expected to continue to trade with upward bias today on account of adverse weather conditions in North India. Although prices may remain firm in the near term, arrival pressure will cap sharp upside in the short term.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| January 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures declined for the sixth consecutive session yesterday on poor demand and comparatively higher supplies and settled marginally lower by 0.13% on Monday. There are reports that drought in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka has hurt fresh sugarcane plantings, which may affect cane availability for sugar year 2013-14 starting October. Although this will have long term implications, outlook for short term remains bleak amid sufficient supplies. Government has allocated total 70 lac tons of non-levy sugar quota for Dec-March 2012-13 period which is higher from 59.5 lac tons last year. Raw sugar futures on ICE as well as Liffe white sugar bounced back sharply yesterday on account of short coverings and settled higher by 1.58% and 1.9% respectively. A supply glut situation on the back of a sugar surplus for the third consecutive year has led to a sharp downside in the prices. Currently the prices are trading around 2 year lows.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Feb'13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3250

as on Jan 28, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.12 -0.64 MoM -0.70 YoY 11.75

Rs/qtl

3191

-0.13

-2.18

-1.82

11.61

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMar'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 494.4 416.22

as on Jan 28, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.58 1.90 0.94 1.96 MoM -4.28 -1.52 YoY -22.04 -21.47

Domestic Production and Exports

Mills in the country have produced 7.96 mln tn sugar in the first three months of the season, up nearly 2.5% a year ago. In Maharashtra, the largest sugar producer in the country, 155 mills are operational and have produced 1.88 mln tn sugar till Dec 15, compared with 1.83 mln produced a year ago by 165 mills. In Uttar Pradesh, the second largest sugar producer in the country, total output as on Dec 15 was 1.03 mln tn, about 20% lower on year, as some mills in the eastern part of the state are still to commence cane crushing. The producers body has estimated sugar output lower at 24 mn tn, down by 2mn tn compared to the current year. Industry body ISMA has estimated 6.5 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may export 1.5 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.5 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5mln tn for 2012-13.

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Feb contract

Source: Telequote

Global Sugar Updates

According to the Brazil Agriculture Ministry, The 2012/13 cane crush was at 531.35 million tonnes as of Dec. 31, up from 491.16 million tonnes crushed the previous year. The 2013/14 crush will likely surpass the current one. Brazil's main center-south cane crop will produce between 580 million and 590 million tonnes of sugar cane in 2013/14. Brazil will likely favor ethanol production over sugar from the 2013/14 cane crop. The 2012/13 sugar crop in Thailand, the world's second-biggest exporter, could drop below a forecast 9.4 million tonnes due to lower-thanexpected yield. The crushing season started on Nov. 15 and 1.9 million tonnes of sugar has been produced so far (Source: Reuters)

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Feb NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Jan 29, 2013 Resistance 3205-3220

3170-3180

Outlook
Sugar prices may trade with downward bias on account of higher supplies and poor demand in the domestic markets. However, sharp downside may be capped on reports of lower cane plantings for next season in some parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka. Further, it is expected that government will take some measure to control prices, which are below the cost of production levels, from falling further so as to protect the interest of the millers.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| January 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean opened on a positive note yesterday but
corrected towards the end on account of profit taking at higher levels. The spot settled marginally higher by 0.03% while the Futures settled 0.28% lower. Dwindling supplies in the domestic markets have led to an increase in the prices over the last fortnight. Arrivals in the domestic markets declined to 1.5 lakh bags, while demand is comparatively lower amid crushing disparity. Soy meal exports fell by 34% in December to 5.10 lakh tn, according to SOPA. The country had exported 7,78,382 tn in December 2011. During the first three months of the current oil year (Oct-Sep), exports declined by 27% to 10.78 lakh tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Feb '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Feb '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3333 3247 757.8 725.4

as on Jan 28, 2013 % Change Prev day 0.03 -0.28 0.28 -0.58 WoW 2.97 0.26 1.59 0.23 MoM 1.06 0.12 6.56 3.21 YoY 32.84 29.50 7.79 4.03

International Markets
Soybean futures on the CBOT settled 0.47% higher on Monday on the back on concerns about rains in Argentina. Soybean prices have gained on reports of downward revision in Argentina soy crop forecast by oil world. The weather conditions in Argentina in coming weeks will determine further price trend in Soybean. Oil World forecasts Argentinas 2012-13 harvest at 52.0 mn tn, down from 53 mn tn in December 2012, however, it is still higher compared with 39 mn tn produced in 2011-12 season. According to the USDA monthly crop report, Brazil will produce a record 82.5 mn tn of soybeans in 2012-13 due to hefty expansion in acreage and improving yield prospects. With the harvest just beginning in some areas, Brazil's planted area will likely increase by 9.2 percent to 27.34 mn ha.
International Prices Soybean- CBOTMar'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMar'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1448 51.89 Prev day 0.47 -0.40 WoW 1.29 0.41

Source: Reuters

as on Jan 28, 2013 MoM 1.63 7.45

Source: Reuters

YoY 22.15 3.26

Crude Palm Oil

as on Jan 28, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.16 -0.97 1.66 -1.24

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Feb '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Jan '13 Futures

Last 2382 436.8

MoM 4.34 4.35

YoY -24.07 -15.38

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil & CPO corrected on Monday and
settled 0.58% and 0.97% lower respectively. India's palm oil imports rose 27.4% on month at 783,091 tn in December, boosted mainly by poor domestic supply of alternatives and attractive overseas prices due to record stocks in key supplier Malaysia. To reduce imports and protect domestic industries, govt lifted duty on crude palm oil from 0 % to 2.5 % and also stated that the base import price on crude palm oil which is currently $447 per ton may be reviewed fortnightly. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jan. 1-20 fell 19.9 percent to 813,778 tonnes compared with 1,015,440 tonnes shipped during Dec. 1-20, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Monday.

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4210 3435 Prev day 0.24 -1.15

as on Jan 28, 2013 WoW -2.43 -0.55 MoM -0.94 -17.67

Source: Reuters

YoY 21.37 2.63

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX Feb contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard seed Futures corrected sharply

yesterday on account of higher sowing and settled 1.15% lower on Monday. Extreme cold in north India supported prices last week. Rabi oilseeds sowing are now up by 2.23% at 8.54 mn ha as of Jan. 18. Arrivals are expected to commence in February and thus no major upside in the prices is seen if weather condition improve in the coming days. Rapeseed area stood at 6.7 mn ha as of Jan. 18, up by 2.8% from a year ago.

Outlook
Soybean complex may extend the losses of the previous session on profit taking. However, no major downside is expected due to dwindling supplies in the domestic markets. Mustard seed prices may correct tracking higher sowing of oilseeds. However, prices may find support at lower levels on reports of ground frost in Rajasthan which may hamper the mustard crop yield. CPO may open higher due to covering of short positions.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Feb NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Feb Futures RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures CPO MCX Jan Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Jan 29, 2013 Support 716.50-721 3215-3233 3400-3415 431-434 Resistance 732-739 3267-3290 3455-3475 441-445

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| January 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures corrected sharply yesterday on account of profit taking. Prices have gained over the last few days on account of low stocks and thin supplies. There is a delay in harvesting due to lack of skilled labourers. Good winter demand also supported the prices. Prices have also increased due to arrivals of good quality pepper from Kerala. Earlier, prices had corrected as Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Harvesting of the fresh crop has commenced and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days. However, winter demand coupled with low stocks in the domestic markets has supported prices at lower levels. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is also weak due to price parity. The Spot settled higher by 0.04% while the Futures settled 2.28% lower on Monday. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,100/tn(C&F Europe). Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia Austa variety are quoted at $7,000/tn and Brazil black pepper is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Feb'13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 39794 37315 % Change Prev day 0.04 -2.28

as on Jan 28, 2013 WoW 2.18 -0.41 MoM 5.41 9.59 YoY 22.87 14.80

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX Feb contract

Exports and Imports

According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of pepper during Jan-Oct 2012 stood at 102,340 mt, lower by 12% as compared to 1,15,780 mt in the same period last year. Total exports in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,10,000 tonnes. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 26% during January-September 2012 period to 41,923 tn as compared to 52,489 tn in the same period previous year. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Feb Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Jan 29, 2013 Support 36460-37000 Resistance 37700-38300

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 35 tonnes while off takes were reported at 34 tonnes on Monday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to previous estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Currently, pepper is in the fruit formation stage in Kerala.

Outlook
Pepper is may open lower extending yesterday losses. However, no major downside is expected on back of low stocks coupled with thin arrivals. Winter buying demand may also support prices. However, higher output expectations may cap sharp upside. FSSAIs sealing of huge quantity of pepper and FMCs probe into complaints against price movement may also pressurize the prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| January 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures opened higher due to short coverings, but corrected towards the end hitting fresh contract lows. Prices have corrected sharply tracking higher sowing figures. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region have pressurized prices. Sowing is complete. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.244 lakh ha till Jan, 2013 compared with 3.64 lakh ha last year. In Rajasthan, sowing is expected to increase by 10-15%. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.53% and 0.5% lower on Monday. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,925 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 14020 13378 Prev day -0.53 -0.50

as on Jan 28, 2013 % Change WoW -1.92 -2.28 MoM -5.65 -10.08 YoY -11.41 -11.96

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX March contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 3,125 tn on Monday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected around 40 lakh bags as against 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (55 kgs each). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day -0.45 -2.42

as on Jan 28, 2013 % Change

Outlook
Jeera is expected to continue to trade lower. Higher sowing figures coupled with conducive weather in Gujarat may pressurize prices. However, export demand at lower levels may support prices. Demand from domestic traders and millers at lower levels may also support prices. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped shipments.
Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures

Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 5427 6050

WoW -2.79 -5.02

MoM -2.04 -8.22

YoY 12.78 31.46

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures corrected sharply on yesterday on account of sluggish export demand. Huge carryover stocks have also pressurized prices over the last few days. Good demand from upcountry market has supported the prices. Lower production estimates have also supported the prices. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. Production is expected around 55 lakh bags. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. There are reports that Turmeric Farmers Association of India have decided to fix their own MSP of Rs.10000/qtl. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.45% and 2.42% lower on Monday.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX April contract

Source: Telequote

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 4,000 bags and 2,000 bags respectively on Thursday. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 55 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric is expected to continue to trade lower today as higher carryover stocks and weak overseas demand is expected to pressurize prices. However, lower output concerns coupled with demand from stockists may support prices at lower levels.
.

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX March Futures Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Jan 29, 2013

Support 13190-13280 5910-5980 Resistance 13530-13690 6160-6280

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| January 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas settled 1.49% lower on account on long liquidation. Upward revisions in downward revision in the output estimates had created positive market sentiments last week. The Cotton Advisory Board, which met in Mumbai on Wednesday, has estimated cotton production this season (Oct 2012 to Sep 2013) will be 330 lakh bales against the previous estimates in October at 334 lakh bales. Also, exports and domestic consumption has been revised upward to 253 and 80 lakh bales respectively from 250 and 70 lakh bales estimated earlier. As on January 9 this year, nearly 38 lakh bales were registered for exports. Cotton Association of India (CAI) expects output to be around 353 lakh bales in 2012-13. According to the data released by Cotton Corporation of India, Supplies until Jan 13 are down 6.3 percent to 12.5 mn bales of 170 kg each, down from 12.9 mn bales a year earlier. Arrivals were down by 10 percent as th on 16 Dec. ICE Cotton recovered from lower levels and settled 0.66% higher on Monday. Prices have traded on a bullish note hitting a fresh 8 month high last week on back of index buying. Hopes of demand from China led to a sharp increase over the week. Concerns about the quality of cotton to be released by China also supported the prices.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 895 16310

as on Jan 28, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -1.49 -2.77 -0.37 -0.43 MoM -9.32 -0.43 YoY #N/A -4.68

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 81.05 81.35

as on Jan 28, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.66 3.18 0.00 0.00 MoM 6.09 0.00 YoY -13.91 -29.20

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) estimates (23 Jan 2013) for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 330 lakh bales, down from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.
Source: Telequote
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Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Jan contract

Global Cotton Updates

China, the world's biggest buyer of cotton, began selling a tiny fraction of its massive stockpile of the fibre on Monday, in a move to ease domestic supply shortages. Beijing has been building a strategic stockpile of cotton since 2011, paying above global prices to support its farmers, but the policy has hurt China's textile mills, which have been struggling with tight supplies, and high prices, at home. Many in the industry were expecting China to reward mills that buy state reserves with new import quotas enabling them to buy cheaper overseas supplies. But no such deal was announced. Brazils 2012-13 cotton production forecast at 6.3 million bales, down 27 percent from 2011/12 production now estimated at 8.6 million bales. (USDA attach report)
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX Jan Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Jan 29, 2013 Support 880-887 16200-16250 Resistance 906-919 16370-16430

Outlook
Cotton prices may trade sideways with a negative bias today. Higher output expectations by Cotton Association of India have turned the sentiments negative for the cotton prices. However, downside may be limited as farmers may not sell their stocks at lower prices. Reports that the Government may purchase cotton from farmers to avoid distress sales may also support prices. Also, anticipated export demand from the neighboring countries may support prices.

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