Contention 1: Inherency

Gibbs, 11 Bob September 16 2011, Bob Gibbs is the U.S. Representative for the Eighteenth District of Ohio and was sworn into
office January 5, 2011. Congressman Gibbs sits on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and the House Agriculture Committee. Gibbs was chosen to chair the Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment, a subcommittee of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee that conducts oversight of the federal regulation of clean water, hearing on the economic importance and financial challenges of recapitalizing the Nations inland transportation waterway system,

Inland Waterways not sustainable in the status quo- process and funding

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-112hhrg68481/pdf/CHRG-112hhrg68481.pdf Challenges to maintaining the inland waterway system can be associated with both process and funding. In recent decades, it has become increasingly difficult to get projects through the congressional and Corps of Engineer process as well increasingly difficult to maintain a level of funding to keep up with repair and replacement needs. Those inland
waterway system projects authorized in the Water Development Act of 1896 were completed within an average of 6 years. However,

projects authorized since 1986 have on average taken twenty years to complete and cost more than twice the authorized amount. As an example, the recently completed McAlpine Locks and Dam near

Lousiville, Kentucky, took 10 years to complete in 1961. This difference reveals the difficulty in developing accuriate capital planning forecasts and demonstrates a multitude of issus surrounding the project delivery process. More alarming is the Olmsted Locks and Dam project on the Ohio River between Illinois and Kentucky. As authorized in 1988, the $775 million project was designed to replace two aging locks completed in 1929. The project broke ground in 1992 and was expected to be completed no later than 2005, today the project remains incomplete and the cost estimates have been revised upwards to approximately $2.124 billion and the expected completion date (barring additional factors or complications) is 2018. Many factors contribute to this scenario at Olmsted.

The cost escalation can be linked to factors such as design and scope changes, differing site conditions, reprogramming funds to other projects, and omissions, some factors which are within the control of the Corps of Engineers, while others can be attributed to insufficient funding and factors outside of the purview of the Corps of Engineers. These cost overruns have contributed greatly in the spending down of the Inland Waterways Trust Fund. While the economic benefits of this project outweigh the costs, frustration of the House of Representatives Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure and the Inland Waterway Users Board continues to mount. This has caused ripple effects throughout the entire Inland Waterways Transportation System. Because it is so costly, until the project at Olmsted is complete, it is difficult to initiate, much less complete, other projects on the Inland Waterways Transportation System. The Congress has been
appropriating $170 million per year on average for the Inland Waterway Transportation System. Compare this to the estimate that it will require $3.8 Billion to complete projects already under construction and there is another $4.3 billion of authorized projects for which construction has not started. To

completely modernize the system with new construction and rehabilitation of old structures would require an estimated $18 billion. That is what would be
required to fully realize the economice benefits of the Inland Waterways Transportation System. The system is falling apart faster than we are replacing. This

condition is not sustainable.

Absent improvements, delays and closures inevitable IWUB 10

http://www.waterwayscouncil.org/WCIExtras/IMTS_IWUB_Report.pdf, Inland Marine Transportation Systems (IMTS) Capital Projects Business Model, Final Report Revision 1, April 13, 2010 Given the issues with the current business model described in Chapter 1 and the need to improve the process so that the IMTS remains reliable and resilient for the foreseeable

future, change to the model is essential. The economic service life of locks and dams is 50 years, but currently 54 percent of the locks and dams in the IMTS are more than 50 years old and 36 percent are more than 70 years old. Without a comprehensive plan to ensure timely replacement and rehabilitation of deteriorating system components, unscheduled closures will become commonplace and a reliable system cannot be guaranteed to the waterways industry and the shippers who use it. At the same time that system components are deteriorating, the MARAD is predicting a dramatic growth in domestic freight volume. Since other surface modes of transportation (rail and truck) face capacity constraints during normal economic circumstances, many see the inland waterways, which do not suffer systemic capacity constraints, as part of the solution to the nations future freight transportation needs. Yet, increases in movement of the bulk commodities historically moved by water and new intermodal cargoes shifted to water from other modes could, without a sound program to maintain and, where appropriate, enhance our inland waterways infrastructure, lead to congestion within the waterways, higher risks for systems to be damaged, and expedited needs for repair. If more users come to rely on the waterways, especially for time-sensitive cargoes such as intermodal containers, maintaining system reliability becomes even more important. Without reliable waterways, not only will we lose the opportunity to take the strain off of other modes through increases in waterways transportation, we will risk shifting the vast quantities of cargo currently moved by water to truck and rail, further exacerbating congestion in these modes and increasing the costs of maintaining those systems.

Contention 2 is the economy

Inland waterways are the quiet underbelly of the economy; future congestion and waterway dilapidation risks losing exports and billions of dollars. Davisdon, 12, Paul, reporter at USA Today, an American macroeconomist who has been one of
the leading spokesmen of the American branch of thePost Keynesian school in economics. He is a prolific writer and has actively intervened in important debates on economic policy (natural resources,international monetary system, developing countries' debt) from a position that is very critical of mainstream economics., USAs creaking infrastructure holds back economy, May 5, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-05-20/creaking-infrastructure/55096396/1

Locks and dams raise or lower barges from one water level to the next, but breakdowns are frequent. For example, the main chamber at a lock on the Ohio River near Warsaw, Ky., is being
fixed. Maneuvering 15-barge tows into a much smaller backup chamber has increased the average delay at the lock from 40 minutes to 20 hours, including waiting time. The outage, which began last July and is expected to end in August, will cost American Electric Power and its customers $5.5 million as the utility ferries coal and other supplies along the river for itself and other businesses, says AEP senior manager Marty Hettel. As

the economy picks up, the nation's creaking infrastructure will increasingly struggle to handle the load. That will make products more expensive as businesses pay more for shipping or maneuver around roadblocks, and it will cause the nation to lose exports to other countries both of which are expected to hamper the recovery. "The good news is, the economy is turning," says Dan Murray, vice president of the American Transportation Research Institute. "The bad news is, we expect congestion to skyrocket."The ancient lock-and-dam system is perhaps the most egregious example of aging or congested transportation systems that are being outstripped by demand. Fourteen locks are expected to fail by 2020, costing the economy billions of dollars.
overtaxed. Inland waterways, for example, carry coal to power plants, iron ore to steel mills and grain to export terminals. But

Meanwhile, seaports can't accommodate larger container ships, slowing exports and imports. Highways are too narrow. Bridges are

inadequate investment led to nearly 80,000 hours of lock outages in fiscal 2010, four times more than in fiscal 2000. Most of the nation's 200 or so locks are past their 50-year design life. A prime example is an 83-year-old lock on the Ohio River near
Olmsted, Ill. Congress set aside $775 million to replace it and another nearby lock in 1988. The project began in 1993 and was scheduled to be finished by 2000 but still isn't complete, in part because of engineering modifications intended to save $60 million. Now, the cost has ballooned to $3.1 billion, and the new lock won't be ready until 2020 or later.

Infrastructure spending can solve the economy with a multiplier effect of 2.8 significantly larger than any other type of fiscal spending Xue Han 12 ( Luxembourg Garden Visiting Scholar. She specializes in applying quantitative analysis to unique investment
opportunities. Prior to joining Global Infrastructure, Ms. Han worked with Artio Global Investors providing industry and fundamental analyses on industries and companies for the High Yield Group. Prior to this, Ms. Han worked with KPMG China on audit projects for Sinopec's branches in Shanghai, Shandong and Heilongjiang. She has also worked as a project manager for Belmark Associates, a marketing research firm. Ms. Han holds a Bachelors degree in Mathematics and Economics from Beloit College, Global Infrastructure Asset Management, Feb 2012, http://www.globalinfrastructurellc.com/Leadership.html) Besides its improving effects on productive capacity as the major reason for the infrastructure contribution to the economic growth, a second reason is its relatively

investments larger multiplier effects on the overall economy compared to other types of investment of the same amount. The multiplier effect refers to the dollar amount impact on the economy, measured as GDP, that each dollar of spending could generate; since the effect of each dollar of spending is usually beyond

itself i.e. larger than 1 due to its stimulating effects on other components of the GDP, such as consumption, investment and net exports, it is often referred to as the multiplier effects. There is more than one kind of multiplier effect based on different investments, but
in most studies and ours as well, we are specifically interested in and refer to the fiscal multiplier, that is the dollar amount impact on the economy for each dollar of government spending. As discussed in details in a previous research of mine on the subject of the Automatic Budget Enforcement Procedures, the

size of the multiplier under current circumstances is estimated to be 1.88, with the interest rate at the zero lower bound taken into account in illustrations of a series of Keynesian models. With regards to the fact that multiplier specifically for infrastructure investments is larger than other types of investments and thus the general average fiscal multiplier, the theoretical reasons behind are quite easy to understand. The two major reasons infrastructure spending are: (1) less leakage to imports and (2) stronger stimulus in consumption compared to other types of spending such as tax cuts, where a higher proportion of the additional money is saved or spent on imported goods and services. In order to estimate the size of multiplier specifically for infrastructure investments, we utilize the employment effects estimated using the Input-Output Model in the research How Infrastructure Investments Support the U.S. Economy: Employment, Productivity and Growth (Heintz, Pollin and Peltier, 2009). According to their research, for each $1 billion infrastructure investment made, an average of 18,681 jobs will be created in core economic infrastructure through direct, indirect and induced effects. As of December 2010, the
total employment in the U.S. was 130.26 million, which translates an increase of 18,681 jobs into a percentage increase of 0.0143%. From there, based

on the solid basic assumption on the relationship between employment and GDP increases that was used by Romer and Bernstein in their paper The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (Romer and Bernstein, 2009), we can trace back to a reliable estimate of GDP increase in dollar amount for each $1 billion investments in infrastructure, and thus an infrastructure multiplier. The assumption made by Romer and Bernstein and also agreed by Heintz, Pollin and Peltier is that employment will rise by 0.75% for every 1% increase in GDP. Therefore, the 0.0143% increase in employment generated per $1 billion infrastructure investment can be translated as a 0.0191% increase in GDP. With a GDP of $14,660.2 billion in 2010, such percentage increase is equivalent to a dollar amount increase of 19 $2.8 billion in GDP. That said, the conclusion is that, for each $1 billion spending on infrastructure, an increase of approximately $2.8 billion in GDP can be observed, meaning that the multiplier for infrastructure investments specifically is about 2.8, much larger than the average size of 1.88 for all types of investments as estimated in previous study. This well established larger multiplier effects of infrastructure investments become particularly important due to the slow economic recovery we have faced since the crisis. Even without the more influential and fundamental effects of infrastructure investments on
productivity improvement, the larger multiplier such investments have is a strong enough reason to call for more spending, or at least less cuts, on infrastructure projects.

And it is critical to all sectors of the economy and it is reverse causal: laundry list Mica 12, John L. Head chair of the transportation and infrastructure committee in the House of
Representatives, this article pertains to The Water Resources and Environment Subcommittee, head by Bob Gibbs, giving multiple peoples insight on the issue, transportation and infrastructure committee http://www.transportation.house.gov/News/PRArticle.aspx?NewsID=1609

The Inland Waterways System provides a cost-effective and energy efficient alternative to truck and rail transportation and is also important to State and local economies and job creation efforts. One 15-barge tow on a river can carry as much cargo as 216 rail cars or 1,050 large trucks. However, the unreliability of the aging locks and dams on the System is making waterways a less attractive means of transportation, and moving cargo from waterways to rail or truck would produce significant national economic impacts. Transportation savings are a key factor in economic growth, said Chairman Gibbs. As fuel prices continue to escalate, waterway transportation becomes an even more viable alternative for shippers. But, an unreliable transportation system will inject uncertainty into decisions made by U.S. farmers and manufacturers, making U.S. products uncompetitive in world markets. Letting the inland waterway system decline further would be an economic disaster to add to the Nations already significant fiscal problems, Gibbs continued. Having an inland waterways system that is a viable alternative will keep costs down among all modes of transport. If you take inland waterways out of the mix in terms of transportation options, costs go up and American products become less competitive in the global marketplace. And that means lost jobs. Mike Steenhoek, Executive Director, Soy Transportation Coalition, testified: Unfortunately, while Brazil and other countries are aggressively investing in their infrastructure, we remain anemic in investing in ours. It can be accurately stated that the U.S. is more a spending nation, not an investing nation. A high percentage of taxpayer dollars are used to meet immediate wants and needs, rather than providing dividends to future generations. Robert Dolence, Vice President, Leonardo Technologies Inc. (LTI), added: It is also interesting to note, in other work by LTI, it has been forecasted that even with sustained low natural gas prices (maintaining less than $4/MMBTU natural gas cost levels for 50 plus years) coal maintains a significant role in electric power generation, industrial and commercial use, and exports with a total coal demand staying above the 1 billion tons per year level for the next 50 years. Based on the combined detailed modeling performed, LTI concludes the Ohio River Navigation System is a vital component to ensuring safe, reliable, low cost, domestic energy including electricity to our country. Major General John Peabody, Mississippi River Valley Division, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, testified: Catastrophic failure of a lock or dam at a high-volume point along one of the major waterways would have significant economic consequences because other transportation modes generally lack the capacity to either quickly or fully accommodate the large volume of cargo moved on the inland waterways. Therefore, cost and congestion of other modes (mostly rail) could be greatly affected and some cargoes may be delayed for extended periods. For example, the Corps extended a planned 18 day closure at Greenup Locks in 2006 when extensive deterioration of the miter gates was discovered. This lengthy, unplanned delay cost shippers over $40 million and several utilities came within days of having to shut down due to exhausted supplies of coal.

Economic decline causes war, multiple warrants and studies Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic
Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)

periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic
Less intuitive is how decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent stales. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic and national levels. Several notable contributions follow. First, on the systemic level. Pollins (20081 advances Modclski and Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory, finding that rhythms in the

global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. As such, exogenous shocks such as
economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. 19SJ) that leads to uncertainty about power balances, increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fcaron. 1995). Alternatively,

even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. 1999).

economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major, medium and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic level. Copeland's (1996. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of states. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. However, if the expectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood for conflict increases, as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. Crises could potentially be the
Separately. Pollins (1996) also shows that global trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states.4 Third, others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. Mom berg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict, particularly during

The linkage, between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. Economic conflict lends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour. Moreover, the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other (Hlomhen? & Hess. 2(102. p. X9> Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blombcrg. Hess. & Wee ra pan a, 2004). which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. Furthermore, crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. "Diversionary theory" suggests that, when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline, sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. Wang (1996), DcRoucn (1995), and Blombcrg. Hess, and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence
periods of economic downturn. They write. showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirecti) correlated. Gelpi (1997). Miller (1999). and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that Ihe tendency towards diversionary tactics arc greater for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due

periods of weak economic performance in the United States, and thus weak Presidential popularity, are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. In summary, recent economic scholarship positively correlates economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises, whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict al systemic, dyadic and national levels.'
to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that This implied connection between integration, crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

Nuclear power wars

Nyquist 5 (J.R., Author and Geopolitical Columnist Financial Sense Online, "The Political Consequences of a Financial Crash," 24, http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2005/0204.html)

Should the United States experience a severe economic contraction during the second term of President Bush, the American people will likely support politicians who advocate further restrictions and controls on our market economy guaranteeing its strangulation and the steady pauperization of the country. In Congress today, Sen. Edward Kennedy supports nearly all the economic dogmas listed above. It is easy to see, therefore, that the coming economic contraction, due in part to a policy of massive credit expansion, will have serious political consequences for the Republican Party (to the benefit of the Democrats). Furthermore, an economic contraction will encourage the formation of anti-capitalist majorities and a turning away from the free market system. The danger here is not merely economic. The political left openly favors the collapse of America's strategic position abroad. The withdrawal of the United States from the Middle East, the Far East and Europe would catastrophically impact an international system that presently allows 6 billion people to live on the earth's surface in relative peace. Should anti-capitalist dogmas overwhelm the global market and trading system that evolved under American leadership, the planet's economy would contract and untold millions would die of starvation. Nationalistic totalitarianism, fueled by a politics of blame, would once again bring war to Asia and Europe. But this time the war would be waged with mass destruction weapons and the United States would be blamed because it is the center of global capitalism. Furthermore, if the anti-capitalist party gains power in Washington, we can expect to see policies of appeasement and unilateral disarmament enacted. American appeasement and disarmament, in this context, would be an admission of guilt before the court of world opinion. Russia and China, above all, would exploit this admission to justify aggressive wars, invasions and mass destruction attacks. A future financial crash, therefore, must be prevented at all costs. But we cannot do this. As one observer recently lamented, "We drank the poison and now we must die."

Specifically, Freight congestion tanks the economy Davisdon, 12, Paul, reporter at USA Today, an American macroeconomist who has been one of
the leading spokesmen of the American branch of thePost Keynesian school in economics. He is a prolific writer and has actively intervened in important debates on economic policy (natural resources,international monetary system, developing countries' debt) from a position that is very critical of mainstream economics., USAs creaking infrastructure holds back economy, May 5, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-05-20/creaking-infrastructure/55096396/1

The shortcomings were partly masked during the recession as fewer Americans worked and less freight was shipped, easing traffic on transportation corridors. But interviews with shippers and logistics companies show delays are starting to lengthen along with the moderately growing economy. "I call this a stealth attack on our economy," says Janet Kavinoky, executive director of transportation and infrastructure for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "It's not like an immediate crisis. It's something that's sneaking up on us." Freight bottlenecks and other congestion cost about $200 billion a year, or 1.6% of U.S.

economic output, according to a report last year by Building America's Future Educational Fund, a bipartisan coalition of elected officials. The chamber of commerce estimates such costs are as high as $1 trillion annually, or 7% of the economy. Yet, there's little prospect for more infrastructure investment as a divided Congress battles about how to cut the $1.3 trillion federal deficit, and state and local governments face their own budget shortfalls. Government investment in highways, bridges, water systems, schools and other projects has fallen each year since 2008. IHS Global Insight expects such outlays to drop 4.4% this year and 3% in 2013. The U.S. is spending about half of the $2.2 trillion that it should over a five-year period to repair and expand overburdened infrastructure, says Andrew Herrmann, president of the American Society of Civil Engineers. Inland
waterways, for example, carry coal to power plants, iron ore to steel mills and grain to export terminals. But inadequate investment led to nearly 80,000 hours of lock outages in fiscal 2010, four times more than in fiscal 2000. Most of the nation's 200 or so locks are past their 50-year design life. A prime example is an 83-year-old lock on the Ohio River near Olmsted, Ill. Congress set aside $775 million to replace it and another nearby lock in 1988. The project began in 1993 and was scheduled to be finished by 2000 but still isn't complete, in part because of engineering modifications intended to save $60 million. Now, the cost has ballooned to $3.1 billion, and the new lock won't be ready until 2020 or later. The cost overrun leaves little money for other projects. About $8 billion is needed to replace 25 locks and dams in the next 20 years, says Michael Toohey, president of the Waterways Council, an advocacy group. But Congress allocates only about $170 million a year, with the government and a 20-cent-a-gallon tax on tow operators each funding half. Toohey says $385 million a year is required to fund all the work. "We're the silent industry" because waterways are less visible, he says.

The biggest railroad bottleneck is in Chicago. A third of the nation's freight volume goes through the city as 500 freight trains jostle daily for space with 800 passenger trains and street traffic. Many freight rail lines crisscross at the same grade as other trains and cars a tangle that forces interminable waits. It takes an average freight train about 35 hours to crawl through the city. Shipping containers typically languish in rail yards several days before they can be loaded onto trains.

This alone damages US economic competitiveness

Strauss, 12 - associate director of Renewing America Publications at the Council on Foreign Relations (Rebecca, Road to Nowhere: Federal Transportation Infrastructure Policy, June, http://www.cfr.org/united-states/road-nowhere-federal-transportationinfrastructure-policy/p28419)//DH Concerns over the state of U.S. transportation infrastructure are higher on the federal policy agenda than at any time since President Dwight D. Eisenhower championed the creation of the interstate highway system in the 1950s. A generation of U.S. infrastructure built fifty years ago is reaching the end of its lifecycle, and new construction has not kept pace with population growth. Meanwhile, international competitors, particularly China, are making massive investments in state-of-the-art transportation systems. Moving people and goods efficiently matters for the U.S. economy. The economic cost of traffic congestion alone in wasted time and fuel was estimated at $101 billion, or $713 per commuter, in 2010.1 According to one estimate, the countrys economic growth would have been 0.2 percentage points higher in 2011 if necessary transportation infrastructure maintenance and improvements had been made.2 If current spending levels persist, by 2020 the drag on growth could be 1.2 percentage points. With interest rates remaining at historic lows and unemployment near double-digit highs, an opportunity exists to marry shorter-term job creation

with investments that will pay longer-term benefits to U.S. economic competitiveness.

And Competitiveness is key to prevent nuclear power wars. Khalilzad, 11 former United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United
Nations and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992, 11 [Zalmay Khalilzad was, The Economy and National Security, 2-8-11, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/print/259024]bg
as China, India, and Brazil have profound political, social, demographic, and economic problems, their economies

We face this domestic challenge while other major powers are experiencing rapid economic growth. Even though countries such

are growing faster than ours, and this could alter the global distribution of power. These trends could in the long term produce a multi-polar world. If U.S. policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow, it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will emerge. The closing of the gap between the United States and its rivals could intensify geopolitical competition among major powers, increase incentives for local powers to play major powers against one another, and undercut our will to preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of escalation. The stakes are high. In modern history, the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U.S. leadership. By contrast, multi-polar systems have been unstable, with their competitive dynamics resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers. Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars. American retrenchment could have devastating consequences. Without an American security blanket, regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats. Under this scenario, there would be a heightened possibility of arms races, miscalculation, or other crises spiraling into all-out conflict. Alternatively, in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers, weaker powers may shift their geopolitical posture away from the United States. Either way, hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions. As rival powers rise, Asia in particular is likely to emerge as a zone of great-power competition. Beijings economic rise has enabled a dramatic military buildup focused on acquisitions of naval, cruise, and
relations with South Korea, Japan, India, and Southeast Asian states. Still, the

ballistic missiles, long-range stealth aircraft, and anti-satellite capabilities. Chinas strategic modernization is aimed, ultimately, at denying the United States access to the seas around China. Even as cooperative economic ties in the region have grown, Chinas expansive territorial claims and provocative statements and actions following crises in Korea and incidents at sea have roiled its

United States is the most significant barrier facing Chinese hegemony and aggression. Given the risks, the United States must focus on restoring its economic and fiscal condition while checking and managing the rise of potential adversarial regional powers such as China. While we face significant challenges, the U.S. economy still accounts for over 20 percent of the worlds GDP. American institutions particularly those providing enforceable rule of law set it apart from all the rising powers. Social cohesion underwrites political stability. U.S. demographic trends are healthier than those of any other developed country. A culture of innovation, excellent institutions of higher education, and a vital sector of small and
medium-sized enterprises propel the U.S. economy in ways difficult to quantify. Historically, Americans have responded pragmatically, and sometimes through trial and error, to work our way through the kind of crisis that we face today.

And Nuclear wars cause the earth to explode CHALKO 2003 (Dr. Tom J., MSc., Ph.D., Head of Geophysics Research, Scientific E Research P/L, Can a Neutron Bomb Accelerate
Global Volcanic Activity? http://sci-e-research.com/neutron_bomb.html)

Consequences of using modern nuclear weapons can be far more serious than previously imagined. These consequences relate to the fact that most of the heat generated in the planetary interior is a result of nuclear decay. Over the last few decades, all superpowers have been developing so-called "neutron bombs". These bombs are designed to emit intensive neutron radiation while creating relatively little local mechanical damage. Military are very keen to use neutron bombs in combat, because lethal neutron radiation can peneterate even the largest and deepest bunkers. However, the military seem to ignore the fact that a neutron radiation is capable to reach significant depths in the planetary interior. In the process of passing through the planet and losing its intensity, a neutron beam stimulates nuclei of radioactive isotopes naturally present inside the planet to disintegrate. This disintegration in turn, generates more neutron and other radiation. The entire process causes increased nuclear heat generation in the planetary interior, far greater than the initial energy of the bomb. It typically takes many days or even weeks for this extra heat to conduct/convect to the surface of the
planet and cause increased seismic/volcanic activity. Due to this variable delay, nuclear tests are not currently associated with seismic/volcanic activity, simply because it is believed that there is no theoretical basis for such an association. Perhaps you heard that after every major series of nuclear test there is always a period of increased seismic activity in some part of the world. This observable fact CANNOT be explained by direct energy of the explosion. The mechanism of neutron radiation accelerating decay of radioactive isotopes in the planetary interior, however, is a VERY PLAUSIBLE and realistic explanation.

The process of accelerating volcanic activity is nuclear in essence. Accelerated decay of unstable radioactive isotopes already present in the planetary interior provides the necessary energy. The TRUE danger of modern nuclear weaponry is that their neutron radiation is capable to induce global overheating of the planetary interior, global volcanic activity and, in extreme circumstances, may even cause the entire planet to explode. Contention 3 is Soybeans Soybean prices steady now

Wilson 10/24/12, Jeff Wilson, Analyst for Bloomberg. "Soybeans Rise on Global Demand for U.S. Supplies; Corn Drops,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-24/soybeans-rise-on-global-demand-for-u-s-supplies-corn-drops.html

Soybeans rose to a three-week high on signs of improving demand for supplies from the U.S., the worlds largest grower last year. Corn declined. U.S. exporters sold 105,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery before Aug. 31 to unknown destinations, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today. China, the worlds biggest buyer, boosted imports by 20 percent in September from a year earlier with U.S. shipments almost four times higher than a year earlier, the Customs Administration reported today. Export business continues to be very good for soybeans, Greg Grow, the director of agribusiness for Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. There appears to be no slowdown in Chinese demand. Soybean futures for January delivery gained 1.1 percent to close at $15.7225 a bushel at 2 p.m. on the Chicago Board

of Trade, after reaching $15.77, the highest since Oct. 1. The price touched $14.8575 on Oct. 15, the lowest since July 3. Soybeanmeal futures for December delivery rose 1.2 percent to $481.90 for 2,000 pounds on the CBOT, capping the first six- day gain since July 20. U.S. export sales for delivery in the marketing year that began Sept. 1 are 35 percent higher than at the same time a year earlier, the USDA said Oct. 18. U.S. supply on Aug. 31 is forecast to drop to 4.4 percent of domestic use and exports, the smallest reserves since 1966. U.S. production was estimated by the government at the lowest since 2008 after the worst drought since 1956 reduced Midwest yields. Corn futures for December delivery declined 0.2 percent to $7.545 a bushel on the CBOT, the third straight drop. The price has tumbled 11 percent from a record $8.49 on Aug. 10, as demand slowed and overseas buyers shifted to cheaper grain from other suppliers. Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at $76.5 billion in 2011, followed by soybeans at $35.8 billion, government figures show. 89% of soybeans travel through inland waterwayslock closure would cause spikes in price USB 12 Crumbling Inland Waterway System Puts Farmers, Consumers at Risk, Jan 24, 2012 Soybean checkoff study finds that United States could lose global competitiveness, http://www.unitedsoybean.org/media-center/releases/crumbling-inland-waterway-system-putsfarmers-consumers-at-risk/ Just on the Ohio River alone, the

accumulated shipping delays at broken-down locks has more than tripled since 2000, rising from 25,000 hours to 80,000

annually. And that gets expensive. This study shows that a three-month lock closure would increase the cost of transporting 5.5 million tons of oilseeds and grain, the average shipped by barge during that period, by $71.6 million. A failure at any of the locks examined by the study could cost U.S. farmers up to $45 million in lost revenue. The U.S. inland waterways represent key infrastructure for transporting U.S. soybeans. Up to 89 percent of soybeans exported through the lower Mississippi ports, such as the Port of New Orleans, arrive at those ports in barges that must transit multiple locks for the trip downstream.The study, conducted by the Texas Transportation Institute at
Texas A&M University, examined the condition of locks on the Upper Mississippi River, Illinois River and Ohio River. The study also calculated the economic impact of specific lock failures on districts within states, showing the effect on agricultural commodity pricesand on fertilizer and coal prices, which also depend on upstream river barge shipping. It

is important that we have a robust transportation system, adds Foell. Only by using a combination of the lock and dam system, rail system and truck system can we continue to move our products in a manner that will help us feed the world. The USB GO program and STC, which is made up of USB, the American Soybean Association and 11 state soybean
checkoff boards, plan to examine new and different ways to fund lock and dam and other rural transportation infrastructure improvements. USB made public and private investment in transportation infrastructure one of its top two priority issues. USB is made up of 69 farmer-directors who oversee the investments of the soybean checkoff on behalf of all U.S. soybean farmers. Checkoff funds are invested in the areas of animal utilization, human utilization, industrial utilization, industry relations, market access and supply. As stipulated in the Soybean Promotion, Research and Consumer Information Act, USDAs Agricultural Marketing Service has oversight responsibilities for USB and the soybean checkoff. Soybeans are the only internal link to Chinese food insecurity Dr. Wong and Dr. Huang , March 12 John Wong, Yanjie Huang, China's Food Security and Its Global Implications China: An International Journal, Volume 10, Number 1, March 2012, pp. 113-124 (Article), is Professorial Fellow at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore and Yanjie Huang (eaihuan@nus.edu.sg) is Research Assistant at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore.

Chinas soybean market can be singled out as the only case where imports have substituted for domestic production. The country consumed 60 million tons of soybeans in 2009, only a quarter of which were produced domestically. This begs the question whether soaring soybean imports will pose a threat to Chinas grain security. Apparently, an
over-reliance on imported soybeans does violate the principle of self-sufficiency and pose some challenges to food security. Food Security is integral to Chinese and Middle East diets and thus their stability American Interest 4/29 2012, Uh Oh: World Food Prices Spike As Soy Harvest Collapses, http://blogs.the-americaninterest.com/wrm/2012/04/29/uh-oh-world-food-prices-spike-as-soy-harvest-collapses/ Among the things we watch here at Via Meadia are trends in world food prices. Middle class Americans grumble when prices go up at the supermarket ($5 bucks for a box of cornflakes? Are these people insane?) but for

billions of people all over the world rising food prices can mean the difference between happy kids and hungry ones, between having a little money for extras at the end of the week and skipping meals. The news on that front is suddenly not good: as the FT reports, the soybean harvest in Latin America has been badly hit by La Nia caused droughts. That doesnt just mean a sharp increase in edamame prices at the local sushi spot and a sharp spike in tofu down at Whole Foods. For much of the world, soybeans are a primary source of protein and because they are used to feed animals, soybean price increases affect many other foods. Soybean is also an important source of cooking oil in baked goods (like bread), and this years spike in soy prices is made worse by rising prices for other edible oils.The US
Department of Agriculture believes that soybean production is headed for its biggest global drop ever or at least since 1965 which is when the US started tracking global soybean production.

Prices are now higher than they have been in four years, and could reach record levels later in the year. This is particularly bad news in China, where food inflation already worries a government facing social unrest and economic instability. Soybeans play a

major role in the Chinese diet. But it also suggests trouble across the Middle East and southern Europe, where economic unrest has shaken governments from Portugal to Pakistan. A lot of people are going to be hurting, and some of them will be hungry. 2012 could be even more interesting than we thought.
Chinese instability will trigger world war iii THE STRAITS TIMES 03, June 28, 2003, p. online But imagine a China disintegrating- on its own, without neo-conservative or Central Intelligence Agency prompting, much less outright military invasion because the economy (against all predictions) suddenly collapses. That

would knock Asia into chaos. A massive flood of refugees would head for Indonesia and other places with poor border controls, which dont want them and cant handle them; some in Japan might lick their lips at the prospect of of World War II revisited and look to annex a slice of China. That would send Singapore and Malaysia- once occupied by Japan- into nervous breakdowns. Meanwhile, India might make a grab for Tibet, and Pakistan for Kashmir. Then you can say hello to World War III, Asia style. Thats why wise policy encourages Chinese stability, security and economic growth the very direction the White House now seems to prefer.
Furthered Middle Eastern instability greatly increases risk of bioterror. Katz 11, Lee Michael December 23, Decades of worldwide experience as a top writer,editor, author, analyst, and interviewer. Writing, editing, analysis, interviewing, Question and Answer interviews for top websites, publications, foundations, corporations, books and magazines. Web writing/editing, print writing/editing, publications writing/editing, newsletter writing/editing. Grant analysis. Nonprofit/NGO writing and editing. Expertise in foreign policy writing/editing/analysis, national security writing,editing/analysis, business writing/editing/analysis, homeland security writing/editing/analysis. Mideast, Near East, Europe, Latin America, North Africa. Award-winning journalist and writer, Middle East Instability Increases Proliferation Threat, Former U.S. Official Says http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/middle-east-instability-increases-proliferation-threat-former-us-officialsays/ WASHINGTON --

Expanding instability in the Middle East is a matter we ought to be watching with some concern for the possible proliferation of biological or chemical weapons, according to a former top U.S. official who worked on containing these threats (seeGSN, Dec. 5). That's a part of the world in which all kinds of things can happen, said Donald Mahley, an arms control veteran who served as U.S. special negotiator for chemical and biological arms control issues, some with zealotry that defies all logic. Mahley noted that numerous Mideast nations are not bound by the Biological and Chemical weapons conventions. His comments toGlobal Security Newswire come amid the Assad regimes continued struggle to stay in power in Syria and recent revelations about undeclared chemical weapons in Libya (see GSN, Nov. 15). Syrias extensive chemical arsenal is believed to comprise hundreds of tons of nerve and blister agents. There have been concerns from outside that the ongoing internal strife in the nation might open the door for those materials to be put to use or acquired by violent extremists. Asked about Syrias potential use of chemical weapons, Mahley replied, With all of the Middle Eastern countries, you have a lot of irrational programs that have gone on for a long time. Mahley said Libya doesn't know exactly
which [political] faction is going to come out on top following the ouster and death of longtime dictator Muammar Qadhafi. He said, though, that the transitional government was cooperative in reporting newly discovered chemical weapons stockpiles. Although he was in charge of U.S. efforts to dismantle Libyas WMD programs in 2004, Mahley was never told of these chemical weapons in the aftermath of Qadhafis seeming decision the previous year to give up all of his nuclear, chemical and biological ambitions. The regime in Tripoli at that time declared only roughly 25 metric tons of mustard blister agent and a large stock of precursor materials. Mahley revealed that he only had a dozen U.S. and British inspectors to cover all of Libyas WMD programs on the ground. The team had no mandate or resources to make random, surprise inspections that could have discovered the undeclared chemical weapons, Mahley noted. The teams transportation was provided by the Libyan regime. Mahley

has long experience in dealing with weapons of mass destruction, from serving as a nuclear weapons officer in the Army to being a key U.S. figure in establishing the Chemical Weapons

Convention. His diplomatic roles have included serving as U.S. representative to the Organization for the Prohibition of
Chemical Weapons from 1997 to 2002 and as deputy assistant secretary of State for threat reduction, export controls and negotiations from 2004 until his retirement in 2008. In the lengthy interview, Mahley discussed the ability of North Korea and many other nations to produce biological weapons, the Chemical Weapons Convention and the new challenges facing its enforcement body. In the edited excerpts below,

Mahley, who emphasized he is only expressing his personal views, also spoke of how easily terrorists could make biological weapons.
Bioterrorism is extinction Kellman 2008, Barry Bioviolence: A Growing Threat The Futurist 42 no3 25-30 My/Je (director of the International Weapons Control Center at the DePaul University , Professor of Law, )

For people who seek to rattle the pillars of modern civilization and perhaps cause it to collapse, effective use of disease would set in motion political, economic, and health consequences so severe as to call into question the ability of existing governments to maintain their citizens' security. In an attack's wake, no one would know when it is over, and no government could credibly tell an anxious population where and when it is safe to resume normal life.
While it is difficult to specify when this danger will strike, there should be no doubt that we are vulnerable to a rupture. Just as planes flying into the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001, instantly became a historical marker dividing strategic perspectives before from after,

the day that disease is effectively used as an instrument of hate will profoundly change everything. If you want to stop modern civilization in its tracks, bioviolence is the way to go. The notion that no one will ever commit catastrophic bioviolence is simply untenable.
Plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its transportation infrastructure investment through the Wave 4 act and investment strategy. We will Clarify

Contention 4 is solvency
Wave4 is the only way to ensure that inland waterways are viable, consensus among experts. Also privates cant solve Woodruff 12, 5-9-12, matt, director of the waterways council inc. works for the Kirby Corporation for government affairs. Kirby corp is the leading operator of inland barges, and matt was selected to be on a special interst group for wave4 with the army corp of engineers heads, only 50 were allowed total, Support WAVE 4: Waterways are Vital for the Economy, Energy, Efficiency, and Environment Act of 2012 (H.R. 4342) This bill incorporates the elements of the Inland Waterways Capital Development Plan Invest in Americas Inland Waterways Transportation System, http://www.waterwayscouncil.org/index/capitalplansupport.pdf

Americas inland waterways are a precious resource, and the envy of the world because of the natural water highway the waterways system provides for commerce. Modern lock and dam infrastructure is critical to U.S. competitiveness in the world market, to environmental protection, to energy efficiency, to the sustainment of well-paying American jobs and to congestion relief. Inland waterways transportation is a key component of the intermodal transportation network, and is essential to our nations economy, environment, and quality of life. A Consensus Plan to Improve Inland Waterways Navigation Infrastructure Business leaders and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers worked together for 18 months to develop a comprehensive, consensus package of recommendations to improve the continued vitality of this critical system. The Capital Development Plan, unanimously endorsed by the congressionally established Inland Waterways Users Board, and included in the WAVE 4 bill (introduced March 30, 2012) will: Prioritize the completion of navigation projects across the entire system; Improve the Corps of Engineers project management and processes to deliver projects on time and on budget; Reform project cost allocations; Deliver 25 modernization projects and $8 billion of job creation; Recommend an affordable user fee funding mechanism to meet the systems needs, and Realize a sustainable annual appropriation of $380

million. The Plan represents a new approach to meet the longstanding need for efficient delivery and timely completion of critical projects and sustainable funding for the Inland Waterways Trust Fund. The nations transportation system and taxpayers would benefit from the completion of essential navigation infrastructure and the containment of cost overruns. Recommended Reforms The proposal would: Preserve the existing 50% industry/50% federal cost-sharing formula for new lock construction and major lock rehabilitation projects costing $100 million or more. Adjust the current model to provide 100% federal funding for dam construction and major rehabilitation and smaller lock rehabilitation projects, recognizing the value derived by other beneficiaries from dams and the pools created by dams. Include a cost share cap on new lock construction projects to incentivize keeping projects on budget and prevent shippers from bearing the burden of paying for unreasonable cost overruns. This will strengthen the ability of the Inland Waterways Trust Fund to fund more priority projects in the pipeline. The proposed new funding parameters will necessitate a 30% to 45% increase (between 6 and 9 cents per gallon) in the
existing fuel tax of 20-cents-per-gallon that is paid by the barge and towing industry, the only users of the system who currently are taxed. At the same time, the recommended reforms to the Corps of Engineers project management and delivery process would ensure that these additional resources are spent wisely. Wave4 will boost jobs, U.S. exports and spur the economy JOC, 12 (3/30/2012, Journal of Commerce Online, Rep. Ed Whitfield and Co-Sponsors Introduce Wave4 Inland Waterways Infrastructure Investment Bill, Waterways Council, Inc. Applaudes Move, http://www.joc.com/press-release/rep-ed-whitfield-andco-sponsors-introduce-wave4-inland-waterways-infrastructure-inves) Arlington, VA Waterways Council, Inc. (WCI) applauds Congressman Ed Whitfield of Kentucky (R-KY), along with co-sponsors Rep. Jerry Costello (D-IL), Rep. John Duncan (R-TN), Rep. Tim Johnson (R-IL), Rep. Robert Alderholt (R-AL), Rep. Terri Sewell (D-AL) and Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO) for their vision and leadership in introducing a bill (H.R. 4342) to modernize the lock and dam infrastructure on the inland waterways system. Known as Waterways are Vital for the Economy, Energy, Efficiency, and Environment Act of 2012 or WAVE4, this legislation incorporates the elements of the Inland Waterways Capital Development Plan. The bill will

address the critical needs of the inland waterways system, create American jobs, enable growth in U.S. exports, and continue to fuel multiple economic benefits that our waterways generate. The Capital
Development Plan applies objective criteria to prioritize essential construction and major rehabilitation projects, revises current beneficiaries cost-sharing for these projects, reforms the Corps of Engineers internal project delivery process, and suggests a revenue enhancement a 30 to 45% increase in the existing diesel fuel user fee the navigation industry pays to fund vital infrastructure investments that return so much to the American economy and to consumers. We thank Congressmen Whitfield, Costello, Duncan, Johnson, Alderholt, Sewell and Carnahan for their strong leadership in addressing the critical needs of the inland waterways system. The present business model for modernizing our lock and dam infrastructure is broken, with too few lock and dam projects being built on time and on budget. Recognizing the failings in the current system, this WAVE4 legislation will

modernize our essential inland navigation infrastructure and in so doing will benefit the U.S. agricultural sector, our construction industry, our energy sector, our environment, our economy, and all the beneficiaries of the waterways system, said WCI President/CEO Michael J. Toohey.

Investment prevents congestion, air pollution and emissions, and starvation- its key to jobs, economic competitiveness, and energy security.
Toohey, 2011 Michael J. Toohey, president and chief executive of Waterways Council Inc. in
Arlington, Va, Waterways Council Inc., JOC TENS: U.S. National Policy Should Include Capital Investment for Inland Waterways Infrastructure September 26, www.waterwayscouncil.org

Americas inland waterways system is the silent workhorse of our export market, moving some 60 percent of the nations grain to the world market. This system also transports 22 percent of our domestic petroleum and petroleum products, and 20 percent of the coal used in our
nations electric power generation, along with many other vital commodities. This segment of the transportation network is often out of sight, out of mind, but without

this critically important mode, our nations roadways would

clog and crumble from the weight of those commodity movements, our air quality would be reduced from increased emissions, our consumption of and cost for energy would go up significantly, our economic competitiveness in the world market would erode, and our quality of life would be affected. The United States needs a national policy that includes the waterways and its infrastructure, and helps put Americans back to work at the same time. Here are 10 ways why: 1. Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! The most important advantage our waterways can bring to America is
family wage jobs. There are currently more than 20 navigation projects authorized by Congress that could begin putting U.S. workers back on the job. Let us invest in our nations lock and dam system today for a more prosperous tomorrow. 2. Exports

for U.S. products: President Obama has called for the doubling of our nations exports over the next five years. A noble goal that will increase our countrys prosperity, yes, but without an efficient waterways infrastructure to move increased volumes of grain, for example, this will not be an achievable goal. 3. Traffic congestion relief: One 15-barge tow of dry bulk cargo keeps 1,050 trucks off our nations already overly congested highways, or another 216 railcars rolling through our communities. 4. Fresher air: The inland
waterways transportation sector has a lower carbon footprint because it generates fewer carbon dioxide emissions than rail or truck for each ton of cargo compared to transporting that same cargo by these other modes. 5. Energy efficiency: Barges on our inland system can move one ton of cargo 576 miles on one gallon of fuel more the 100 miles more than rail transport and 400 miles more than truck transport. This matters now more than ever as we seek ways to be less dependent on foreign oil. 6.

Bolstering our economy: 624 million tons of cargo moves annually on the inland waterways, equaling around $70
billion that goes back into the U.S. economy. And more than $9 is returned to the nation in transportation cost savings for every $1 that is invested in a navigation project. 7. Multibeneficiaries: The inland waterways system benefits many Americans, including those who use it for recreation, municipal and industrial water supply, hydropower and flood control. Many communities along our inland waterways benefit from economic development opportunities, and private property owners enjoy higher property values because of the steady pools of water created by locks and dams on our inland waterways. 8. Safest mode: Our fundamental goal is to return our workers safely home to their families. Thus, inland waterways transportation boasts the lowest injury and fatality rates compared to rail or truck. Safety-related statistics for all modes of freight transportation show one injury in the inland marine sector for every 125.2 in the rail sector and 2,171.5 in the highway sector, and one fatality in the inland marine sector for every 22.7 in rail and 155 in highway. 9. Connecting the country: Our inland waterways system includes 12,000 miles of commercially navigable channels and around 240 lock sites. These inland marine highways transport commodities to and from 38 states throughout the nations heartland and the Pacific Northwest; they serve industrial and agricultural centers, and facilitate imports and exports at gateway ports along the Gulf Coast. Just like Lewis and Clarks discovery expedition to find new trade routes for a young America, our waterways keep America moving today and will do so tomorrow as well. 10. Capacity

to feed the world: Our capital development plan for the United States navigable waterways system is building for the future. Unlike the truck or rail industries, we can accommodate the Panama Canal expansion, containers on barge, and the increased exports that will help feed the worlds inhabitants, expected to grow to 9 billion by 2050.

A federal investment strategy is key to effectively expand inland waterways --- imposes obligations on government planners and decision makers Bray, 11 --- Center for Transportation Research, University of Tennessee, Knoxville (9/21/2011, Larry G., Congressional Documents and Publications, House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment Hearing - "The Economic Importance and Financial Challenges of Recapitalizing the Nation's Inland Waterways Transportation System, Factiva, JMP) Does Economic Theory Support a Federal Role in the Creation of Renewed Inland Navigation Capacity and, If So, What is the Proper Course? Even after decades of mergers, it is still common to find two or more competing railroads running side-by-side. Moreover, even when one rail route is not visible from the tracks of another, there is generally railroad competition. Literally hundreds of thousands of US city pairs are linked by two, three, four, or five different rail carriers or rail carrier combinations. If there is any lack of competition at all it is generally over the last few miles over which railroad customers connect to the greater railroad network. This is not true of the inland navigation system. With

waterway network links. In most cases, there is only one waterway route between any origin-destination pair and
little or no opportunity to create competing routes. Within economics, this outcome is referred to as a natural monopoly. n21 Unimpeded, any single firm that controlled the waterway network (or any of its component parts) could impose monopoly prices. Again, competition, through the development of a competing navigation network is impossible. Thus, the

only few exceptions there are not duplicate

federal government is faced with only two choices, it could lease control of the inland navigation system to one or more franchise holders and carefully

regulate their activities (pricing, network access, service levels, etc.) or it must retain control of the system and operate it equitably to the benefit of all waterway users. We have very wisely chosen the latter course. The efficient federal control of the inland waterway network imposes obligations on government planners and decision makers that are relatively easy to describe. They must design a network sufficient in extent and capacity to ensure that any further expansion would impose incremental costs that are greater than corresponding additional benefits. The cost of actually constructing, operating, and maintaining the resulting system must then be recovered through fees charged to those who benefit from the waterway's use. Fees faced by
each group of users should (at least) reflect any costs that are directly incremental to that group's use. n22 I've chosen these words very carefully so that they conform to my discipline's practice. However, simpler language can convey similar notions without a catastrophic loss of precision. The most extensive system possible. Instead, it should

investment seems silly. If our children don't understand this concept, our parents surely did. Building, operating, and maintaining such a system requires money. Thus, those who benefit must be made to "contribute" toward this end. Differences in who pays which share of the bill depend on whether or not it's
possible to assign specific costs to distinct subsets of users - if you cause us to buy it and we can demonstrate that connection, then you pay for it.

inland navigation system need not be the biggest, be built out to the point where further

The implications of this common sense (or if you prefer, theoretically sound) prescription for renewed investment in inland waterway capacity are simple. If, as some
maintain, the only groups to benefit from the required investment are waterborne carriers and their customers, then the full burden of new investment should rest with them. Alternatively, if you conclude as I have, that a

much broader set of Americans will benefit from this assured navigation capacity, then the burden must be spread equitably across this broader array of beneficiaries.
Contention 5: Pre-Empts

The Transportation bill would have triggered the link

Fram and Lowy 6/29, Writers of the Huffington Post just stating fact. I dare you to question the source of this card, it is providing factual information. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/29/transportation-bill-student-loans_n_1638116.html

Congress emphatically approved legislation Friday preserving jobs on transportation projects from coast to coast and avoiding interest rate increases on new loans to millions of college students, giving lawmakers campaign-season bragging rights on what may be their biggest economic achievement before the November elections. The bill sent for President Barack Obama's signature enables just over $100 billion to be spent on highway, mass transit and other transportation programs over the next two years, projects that would have expired Saturday without congressional action.

It also ends a bare-knuckle political battle over student loans that raged since spring, a proxy fight over which party was best helping voters muddle through the economic downturn. Obama signed a one-week temporary measure Friday evening, permitting the highway and loan programs to continue until the full legislation reaches his desk. Under the bill, interest rates of 3.4 percent for subsidized Stafford loans for undergraduates will continue for another year, instead of doubling for new loans beginning on Sunday as scheduled by a law passed five years ago to save money. Had the measure failed, interest rates would have mushroomed to 6.8 percent for 7.4 million students expected to get the loans over the coming year, adding an extra $1,000 to the average cost of each loan and antagonizing students and their parents four months from Election Day. The

Democratic-led Senate sent the measure to Obama by a 74-19 vote, just minutes after the Republican-run House approved it 373-52. The unusual display of harmony, in a bitterly partisan year, signaled lawmakers' eagerness to claim credit for providing transportation jobs, to avert higher costs for students and their families and to avoid being embarrassed had the effort run aground.
This year has seen the two parties mostly drive each other's plans for tax breaks and economic revival into a stalemate, although lawmakers have enacted bills retaining the Social Security payroll tax cut for a year and renewing a government agency that promotes U.S. exports. "It's

important for Congress to act, not just talk about problems we have but to get things done," said Rep. John Mica, R-Fla., a chief House author of the transportation measure. "We have a bill that will boost this economy," said Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., a sponsor who said

the measure would create or save 2.8 million jobs. "We

have a bill that is supported by conservatives and liberals, progressives and moderates. I think this is a great day." All the no votes were cast by Republicans. The
compromise ended up sprinkled with unrelated nuggets dealing with Asian carp, roll-your-own tobacco and federal timber aid. But its most significant provisions dealt with transportation and student aid. The final transportation measure dropped a provision which had drawn an Obama veto threat that would have forced government approval of the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada to the Texas coast. But it contains curbs on environmental reviews of transportation projects. Republicans sought those curbs in hopes of cutting construction time almost in half. The bill consolidates federal transportation programs and gives states more flexibility in spending money from Washington. It

also contains an array of safety initiatives including requirements aimed at enhancing bus safety. And it makes advocates of bike and pedestrian paths compete for
money with other transportation projects. White House spokesman Jay Carney said the administration was glad Congress acted "before middle class families pay the price for inaction." He said Obama will keep pressing for approval of more of his job-creating proposals from last year, to hire teachers, police officers and firefighters and for tax credits to companies that hire new workers. Most of the overall measure was financed by extending federal taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel for two more years. Those levies, unchanged for nearly two decades, are 18.4 cents a gallon for gasoline and 24.4 cents for diesel and now fall well short of fully financing highway programs, which they were designed to do. About $20 billion would be raised over the next decade by reducing tax deductions for companies' pension contributions and increasing the fees they pay to federally insure their pension plans. In return, a formula was changed to, in effect, let companies apportion less money for their pensions and to provide less year-to-year variation in those amounts. To raise other revenue, the government will start charging interest on subsidized Stafford loans no more than six years after undergraduates begin their studies. Today no interest is charged until after graduation, no matter how long that takes. In addition, a loophole was tightened to make it harder for businesses with roll-your-own cigarette machines to classify the tobacco they sell as pipe tobacco which is taxed at a lower rate than cigarette tobacco. The change is expected to raise nearly $100 million. Some federal workers would be allowed to work part-time as they gradually retire, saving the government money because the workers would receive only partial salaries and retirement annuities. As often happens with bills that are certain to win the president's signature, the measure became a catch-all for other unrelated provisions. One would order the government to accelerate work on a plan for preventing Asian carp, which devour other species, from entering the Great Lakes from the Mississippi River. It drew opposition from Sen. Dan Coats, R-Ind., and some other lawmakers arguing that blocking the fish could interfere with shipping, but the Senate turned their objections aside. Federal flood insurance programs that protect 5.6 million households and businesses were extended, allowing higher premiums and limiting subsidies for vacation homes to help address a shortfall in the program caused by claims from 2005's Hurricane Katrina. The measure also steers 80 percent out of billions in Clean Water Act penalties paid by BP and others for the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion to the five Gulf states whose beaches and waters were soiled by the disaster. The money would have otherwise gone to federal coffers. Federal timber subsidies worth $346 million would be distributed for another year to rural counties, while other funds would be steered to rural school districts. The

bill also eases restrictions that force most American food aid to be shipped abroad on U.S.-flagged vessels.
Political prediction is impossible Nicholas Rescher, Professor of Philosophy at Pitt, Predicting the Future, 1998, p. 201 Political prediction. To

think that we shall ever be in a position reliably to forecast next years is pie in the sky. Even routine short-term predictions in politicselection outcomes as a prime exampleare hard to forecast with unqualified confidence. And the longer term as an imponderable. For elections eight or ten years down the wad, we cannot say who the candidates will be, let alone which of them will win. Even in the most orderly of nations, politics is too volatile and chancy a process for confident prediction. It would be a foolhardy thing to place much reliance on the declarations of a seer who claimed to be able to forecast political developments in national or international affairs
newspaper headlines though given the numerousness of those who try it is unsurprising that here or there some came to look competent with the wisdom of hindsight. We cannot hope to predict what the United States of the year 3000 will be like: indeed we cannot even claim with confident assurance that it will exist

Criticism is based on generalizations, which become transferred to universal truths. This leads to universal failure in praxisthe subject of criticism now, was the result of previous theoretical changes; it's better to live with uncertainty, than a flawed, fractured epistemology Penna 2004 (Sue, Ph. D., Lecturer in the Applied Social Theory department of Applied Social Science at Lancaster University, writing for Critical Social Work, a journal for social justice: On the Perils of Applying Theory to Practice http://www.uwindsor.ca/criticalsocialwork/on-the-perils-of-applying-theory-to-practice ) What we call 'theory'

can be understood as a form of social action that gives direction and meaning to what we do. To be human is to search for meaning, and all of us hold theories about how and why particular
things happen or do not happen. Some of these theories are little more than vague hypotheses about what will happen if we act in a certain way in a certain situation and what we might expect from others. But many of the theories we hold are more complex and express our understandings of, for example, how organisations work, of how people become offenders, or why the distribution of resources is as it is. In this sense theories

are generalisations about what exists in the world and

how the components of that world fit together into patterns. In this sense also theories are
'abstractions' in as much as they generalise across actual situations our expectations and suppositions about the reasons why certain patterns exist (O'Brien and Penna, 1998). In the same way that we use theory in our everyday lives, we also draw upon various theories as part of the ways we act in the world, so understandings of the social dimension of social work are also built upon different theoretical foundations. As O'Brien and Penna (1998) point out, theories about the validity of data and research procedures, theories about what motivates individual behaviour, theories about what will happen if we intervene in particular situations in x way rather than y way, become embedded in social, economic and criminal justice policies developed, implemented and managed by different social groups. Theories about the proper relationship between the individual and the state, men and women, homosexual and heterosexual, inform policy and practice frameworks so that the frameworks that legally bound social work, as well as practice priorities and interventions, differ substantially from country to country. Theory

about social life is either used or promoted in particular policy and welfare frameworks in order to make them more effective' or 'appropriate', and is invariably embedded in the social programs that ensue from them. In this way theories make up the premises and assumptions that guide the formulation of particular policies and practices in the first place, as well as their later implementation. Such premises are essentially theoretical: they are 'imaginary' in
the sense that the conditions they describe, the logics of action and the structures of provision on which they focus are not proven, definite realities. This use of theory in the ways described above developed from the intellectual sea-change of the eighteenth century European Enlightenment. Prior to the Enlightenment, social organisation was understood through theological worldviews, and government of the population justified largely according to divine right and religious edict: the Sovereign ruled over a subject population because he or she was divinely ordained to so. However, from the middle of the seventeenth century onwards a shift in intellectual thinking occurred which was to have major implications for the development of European societies. This historical period - The Enlightenment marks a time when people start to be understood as self-creating, rather than as products of divine creation. A philosophical shift, questioning theological understandings of the human world and establishing the legitimacy of scientific explanations of the natural world, results eventually in a humanist understanding of social organization. The Enlightenment sees the establishment of new philosophical systems for understanding both the natural and human worlds and the development of rational responses to social problems. The Enlightenment promises progress and represents a faith in science as a progressive force which can understand, and hence solve, problems in the natural and social worlds. In this intellectual movement, new ways of thinking overlay those they were in the process of replacing, so that the cosmic transcendence of religious thought was replaced by the universalism of philosophy, and the methods and principles of the natural sciences. It was assumed that a theory could be developed that would substitute for the truth of religion. Eighteenth and nineteenth century social thought was focused, in the social sciences, on the search for one theory that could explain the social world and hence provide a guide to action - a theory that could be used in practice famously captured by the term praxis. However, as the twentieth century developed, this conception of theory came under increasing attack, and this attack is one which has many implications for the use of theory in social work education and practice. Some Problems With Theory Several events in Europe contributed to a questioning of the application of theory to practice. The establishment of a communist society based upon the premises of Marxist theory was one such event. As

the mass exterminations, abuses of power and repressions of the communist state came to widespread notice, so did the rationales underlying them. The communist leadership, following
particular strands of Marxist theory, imposed upon populations conditions which, in theory, were necessary for the development of a communist society. Those individuals who did not fit the predictions of theory, or questioned the premises upon which action was based, were considered deviant and sent for retraining in labour camps when they were not killed. The endless compulsory selfcriticism that members of various Marxist groups carried out was aimed at making individual behaviour conform to the tenets of theory. Yet when many thousands of individuals failed to conform, it was their behaviour that came under scrutiny, rather than the premises and assumptions of the theory, resulting in tragedy for thousands. The second tragedy was the application of theory to practice by Germanys Nazi leadership. These two examples provide perhaps the most extreme illustrations of the application of theory to practice, but the

history of social welfare is littered with more mundane examples that nevertheless cause great misery to those subject to theory application. We have seen the eugenics

movement in the early twentieth century whose influence contributed to the institutionalisation (and worse) of people with learning difficulties, the widespread use in the mid-twentieth century of lobotomies in treating people with mental health problems and, to take two examples from this authors practice career, the use of psychodynamic and behaviour modification theory in practice. I observed the use of psychodynamic theory in practice in the social work department of an acute unit in a psychiatric hospital. A senior social worker specialized in dealing with depressed female lone-parents. Reading through dozens of case-notes (meant to aid my practice) I was struck by the way that these womens depression was attributed to various failures in their early psycho-sexual development, whilst their practical circumstances victims of domestic violence, poor housing, lack of money were completely ignored. Needless to say, these women failed to improve, but the point to note here is that this failure was not attributed to the faulty premises of the theory and the way in which it was being applied, but to the womens innate psychopathology. My second example is taken from two years in a residential home for children with learning disabilities. Here a behaviour modification regime was implemented by management with no critical appreciation of debates in psychology about what it means to be human, what motivates behaviour and how behaviour should be understood. Those children who did not respond to positive reinforcement (the majority) were labelled and punished, whilst the underlying problems of the theory itself left unexamined. In short, in both these cases, where service-users failed to fulfil predicted outcomes derived from particular theoretical paradigms, the response displayed a notably similar characteristic as in the examples from totalitarian societies the

users were pathologised, rather

than theoretical premises examined. An objection could be made here that these examples merely demonstrate atypical historical circumstances or incompetent practitioners. However, whether at the level of whole societies, whole social groups,

or numerous disparate individuals, a

backlash against the conjoining of knowledge and power has been manifest in many locations, including: the overthrow of communism in the Soviet Union, the critical interrogation of totalising discourses, the decline in membership of organised, hierarchical political movements, the widespread development of rightsbased and user movements, and a suspicion of expert practice and bureaucracies. In
social theory, the last three decades or so has seen a particularly sustained interrogation of the status of Enlightenment theory. Under the impact of post-structuralism, particularly that associated with Foucault and Derrida , an unpackaging of the assumptions and premises of theory construction has severely undermined the theory as truth and guide to practice position. This is not to say such challenges to Enlightenment theory did not exist before, for a long tradition of hermeneutic and phenomenological thought had posed alternative understandings of human and social action. Post-structuralism, however, has mounted a comprehensive and thorough critique of the epistemological basis of structuralism and realism. In the current examination of Enlightenment thought, Derrida 'deconstructed' major traditions in western social thought, showing how accounts of human knowledge depended on the use of key textual devices for obscuring problematic philosophical categories, or for revealing and endorsing particular interpretations and meanings of social and political progress. The construction of any text lends itself to several meanings and interpretations, such that it is impossible to arrive at any one fixed, true account. Foucault, on the other hand, examined the epistemology underpinning the Enlightenment belief in the replacement of an institutionalised theological belief system with one which emphasised Reason and the limitless capacity of human knowledge. Enlightenment philosophy suggests that what occurs in the world is subject to entirely knowable and explainable laws that can be discovered and used in the progress of human society and human mastery over the natural and social world. Foucaults contribution to the unpicking of this position was to show, through examinations of historical understandings of punishment and sexuality, that there are other ways of understanding this history which suggest a very different interpretation of the Enlightenment and its effects on social life, and demonstrate that many truths and experiences of social life coexist that make it impossible to provide an overarching account that explains everything. At the same time, science constantly shifts its parameters, so that what may be true at one historical moment is rendered false later. This brief outline cannot do justice to the sophistication and breadth of the critique of Enlightenment theory, critiques which have resulted in major debates over how we can know our world and what valid knowledge claims can be made (c.f., Lemert, 1999). Even where the foundations of poststructuralist epistemology are rejected there is a much greater appreciation of the problems associated with universalism and linear structures, two of the major props of Enlightenment theory. The permeation of these critiques is perhaps most evident in mainstream emphases on difference and social constructivism, 'difference' and postmodernism, (c.f.,Briskman, 2001), and a general rejection in many disciplines of overarching, grand theory (Leonard, 1997). Here attention

shifts to the assumptions embedded in theory and the way in which these assumptions become embedded in projects of nation-building, in legal and organisational structures, and in policy initiatives. Goldbergs
(1993, 2002) work on race and racialization traces this process of embedding through an examination of the ways in which Enlightenment thought depended upon a racialized subject of social action and object of social theory. The pervasiveness of this discourse entrenches and normalizes symbolic representations and values both culturally and materially within the institutions of modern life (c.f., Goldberg, 1993: 8). The social sciences are deeply implicated in the building of a racist culture and in the hegemony of symbolic violence underpinning social systems (Goldberg, 1993: 12, 9). Roediger (1994) examines a similar process in American history and nation-building, pointing to a normalization of Whiteness in the construction of conceptual and political subjects. This legacy enters social work in various ways (see Taylor, 1993), but

appreciating the role of theory as cultural artefact, as a cultural product, produced in, and reproducing, social assumptions of normativity and relations of domination and subordination, can be similarly achieved in relation to gendered and sexualized categories, for example. This leads us to a
situation in which theory itself can be understood as a key resource in forging a modern consciousness, and socio-political spheres shot through with asymmetries of power (Penna and OBrien, 1996/7), where exploitation and oppression operate through complex and unstable socio-economic mechanisms (OBrien and Penna, 1996). Not

only can the social upon which we work not be known in its entirety, not be predicted, not be subject to fool-proof risk assessment, evaluation and so on, but theory production has arguably been a contributory mechanism in the creation of precisely many of those socially problematic circumstances that social work sets out to address. In short, Parton (2000:452) hits the nail on the head in claiming that we need to learn to live with uncertainty, confusion and doubt. Where then, does that
leave theory in social work, if we accept this position? I want to turn briefly, and finally, to some suggestions of the use of theory in social work education.

Extinction outweighs ethics Schell, 82 (Jonathan, Professor at Wesleyan University, The Fate of the Earth, pages 136-137) Implicit in everything that I have said so far about the nuclear predicament there has been a perplexity that I would now like to take up explicitly, for it leads, I believe, into the very heart of our response-or, rather, our lack of response-to the predicament. I have pointed out that our species is the most important of all the things that, as inhabitants of a common world, we inherit from the past generations, but it does not go far enough to point out this superior importance, as though in making our decision about ex- tinction we were being asked to choose between, say, liberty, on the one hand, and the survival of the species, on the other. For the species not only overarches but contains all

the benefits of life in the common world, and to speak of sacrificing the species for the sake of one of these benefits involves one in the absurdity of wanting to destroy something in order to preserve one of its parts, as if one were to burn down a house in an attempt to redecorate the living room, or to kill someone to improve his character. but even to point out this absurdity fails to take the full measure of the peril of extinction, for mankind is not some invaluable object that lies outside us and that we must protect so that we can go on benefiting from it; rather, it is we ourselves, without whom everything there is loses its value. To say this is another way of saying that extinction is unique not because it destroys mankind as an object but because it destroys mankind as the source of all possible human subjects, and this, in turn, is another way of saying that extinction is a second death, for one's own individual death is the end not of any object in life but of the subject that experiences all objects. Death, how- ever, places the mind in a quandary. One of-the confounding char- acteristics of
death-"tomorrow's zero," in Dostoevski's phrase-is that, precisely because it removes the person himself rather than something in his life, it seems to offer the mind nothing to take hold of. One even feels it inappropriate, in a way, to try to speak "about" death at all, as. though death were a thing situated some- where outside us and available for objective inspection, when the fact is that it is within us-is, indeed, an essential part of what we are. It would be more appropriate, perhaps, to say that death, as a fundamental element of our being, "thinks" in us and through us about whatever we think about, coloring our thoughts and moods with its presence throughout our lives.

Hey Race Teams! No Link of Omission Here: Raising discursive analysis above concrete action obscures ways for us to fight against social oppression and serves to only further silence oppressed peoples. Only through concrete action can we hope to bring about change of any sortscholars from marginalized groups agree

Taft-Kaufman 95
(Jill, Professor of Speech at Central Michigan University, Ph.D. from UC Berkeley. Other Ways Southern Comm. Journal, Spring, v. 60, Iss. 3) The postmodern passwords of polyvocality, Otherness, and difference, unsupported by substantial analysis of the concrete contexts of subjects, creates a solipsistic quagmire. The political sympathies of the new cultural critics, with their

ostensible concern for the lack of power experienced by marginalized people, aligns them with the political left. Yet, despite their adversarial posture and talk of opposition, their discourses on intertextuality and inter-referentiality isolate them from and ignore the conditions that have produced leftist politicsconflict, racism, poverty, and injustice. In short, as Clarke (1991) asserts, postmodern emphasis on new subjects conceals the old subjects, those who have limited access to good jobs, food, housing, health care, and transportation, as well as to the media that depict them. Merod (1987) decries this situation as one which leaves no vision, will, or commitment to activism. He notes that academic lip service to the oppositional is
underscored by the absence of focused collective or politically active intellectual communities. Provoked by the academic manifestations of this problem Di Leonardo (1990) echoes Merod and laments: Has there ever been a historical era characterized by as little radical analysis or activism and as much radical-chic writing as ours? Maundering on about Otherness: phallocentrism or Eurocentric tropes has become a lazy academic substitute for actual engagement with the detailed histories and contemporary realities of Western racial minorities, white women, or any Third World population. (p. 530) Clarkes assessment of the postmodern elevation of language to the sine qua non of critical discussion is an even stronger indictment against the trend. Clarke examines Lyotards (1984) The Postmodern Condition in which Lyotard maintains that virtually all social relations are linguistic, and, therefore, it is through the coercion that threatens speech that we enter the realm of terror and society falls apart. To this assertion, Clarke replies: I can think of few more striking indicators of the political and intellectual impoverishment of a view of society that can only recognize the discursive. If the worst terror we can envisage is the threat not to be allowed to

speak, we are appallingly ignorant of terror in its elaborate contemporary forms. It may be the intellectuals conception of terror (what else do we do but speak?), but its projection onto the rest of the world would be calamitous.(pp. 2-27) The realm of the discursive is derived from the requisites for human life, which are in the physical world, rather than in a world of ideas or symbols.(4) Nutrition, shelter, and protection are basic human needs that require collective activity for their fulfillment. Postmodern emphasis on the discursive without an accompanying analysis of how the discursive emerges from material circumstances hides the complex task of envisioning and working towards concrete social goals (Merod, 1987). Although the material conditions that create the situation of marginality escape the purview of the postmodernist, the situation and its consequences are not overlooked by scholars from marginalized groups. Robinson (1990) for example, argues that the justice that working people deserve is economic, not just textual (p. 571). Lopez (1992) states that the starting point for organizing the program content of education or political action must be the present existential, concrete situation (p. 299). West (1988) asserts that borrowing French post-structuralist discourses about Otherness blinds us to realities of American difference going on in front of us (p. 170). Unlike postmodern textual radicals who Rabinow (1986) acknowledges are fuzzy about power and the realities of socioeconomic constraints (p. 255), most writers from marginalized groups are clear about how discourse interweaves with the concrete circumstances that create lived experience. People whose lives form the material for postmodern counter-hegemonic discourse do not share the optimism over the new recognition of their discursive subjectivities, because

such an acknowledgment does not address sufficiently their collective historical and current struggles against racism, sexism, homophobia, and economic injustice. They do not appreciate being told they are living in a world in which there are no more real subjects. Ideas have consequences. Emphasizing the discursive self when a person is hungry and homeless represents both a cultural and humane failure. The need to look beyond texts to the perception and attainment of concrete social goals keeps writers from marginalized groups ever-mindful of the specifics of how power works through political agendas, institutions, agencies, and the budgets that fuel them.
Journalists cant understandpolitical science shows most political journalism to be widely inaccurate

Marx 2010
(Greg Marx, Political Scientist, editor of the Columbia Journalism Review. Embrace the Wonk http://www.cjr.org/feature/embrace_the_wonk_1.php?page=2 June 10th, 2010)

While Bais tone verged on the scornful, most journalists arent looking to start a fight with political science. But theyre not often looking to it for inspiration, either. Diligent reporters may turn to political scientists for a useful primer on a new beat; lazy ones know how to use the fields quote machines to pad a story. But when it comes to daily coverage of the core subjects of political lifeelections and campaigns, public opinion and voter behavior, legislative deal-making and money-grubbingthe relevance of a field in which an idea might gestate for two years before seeing print to a news cycle that turns over three times a day is not always obvious. As journalists go, Jeff Zeleny of The New York Times is hardly averse to political sciencehe studied it as an undergraduate, and can list the names of academics hes relied on. But for most of what he writes, he says, The reality is, its a newspaper story or a Web story. You cant go into abstract theories. In recent years, though, there have been signs that views are shifting. In June 2007, Ezra Klein, then an associate editor for the liberal journal The American Prospect, put out a request for links to bloggers who aggregate and keep track of political science research. The call yielded almost no responseevidence that, while economists had colonized the wonkier regions of the blogosphere in the same way theyd taken over many D.C. policy shops, political scientists had largely ceded the terrain. But Kleins item caught the eye of Henry Farrell, a professor of political science at George Washington University and a contributor to the early group blog Crooked Timber. The post, Farrell says, made it very clear that there was a demand out there for political scienceand he encouraged his GW colleague John Sides, whod been tinkering with the idea of a blog devoted to expanding the fields audience, to meet it. In November 2007, The Monkey Cagethe name comes from an H.L. Mencken line about the nature of democracywas launched. It had two central goals: to publicize political science research, and to provide commentary on current political eventsa task, Sides presciently acknowledged in a mission statement, that might involve testing and perhaps contesting propositions from journalists or commentators. The site quickly established credibility among political scientists. And it has attracted a respectable audience as a niche blog, drawing more than 30,000 unique visitors in peak months. But perhaps The Monkey Cages greatest influence has been in fostering a nascent poli-sci blogosphere, and in making the fields insights accessible to a small but influential set of journalists and other commentators who have the inclinationand the opportunityto approach politics from a different perspective. That perspective differs from the standard journalistic point of view in emphasizing structural, rather than personalitybased, explanations for political outcomes. The rise of partisan polarization in Congress is often explained, in the press, as a consequence of a decline in civility. But there are reasons for itsuch as the increasing ideological coherence of the two parties, and procedural changes that create new incentives to band togetherthat have nothing to do with manners. Or consider the president. In press accounts, he comes across as alternately a tragic or a heroic figure, his stock fluctuating almost daily depending on his ability to connect with voters. But political-science research, while not questioning that a presidents effectiveness matters, suggests that the occupant of the Oval Office is, in many ways, a prisoner of circumstance. His approval ratingsand re-election prospectsrise and fall with the economy. His agenda lives or dies on Capitol Hill. And his ability to move Congress, or the public, with a good speech or a savvy messaging strategy is, while not nonexistent, sharply constrained. These powerful, simple explanations are often married to an almost monastic skepticism of narratives that cant be substantiated, or that are based in datalike voters accounts of their own thinking about politicsthat are unreliable. Think about that for a moment, and the challenge to journalists becomes obvious: If much of whats important about politics is either stable and predictable or unknowable, whats the value of the sort of newsa hyperactive chronicle of the days events, coupled with instant speculation about their meaning that has become a staple of modern political reporting? Indeed, much of the media criticism on The Monkey Cage is directed at narratives that, from the perspective of political science, are either irrelevant

or unverifiable. In the wake of the special election in Massachusetts, Sides wrote numerous posts noting the weakness of the data about voter opinion there and faulting journalistic efforts to divine the meaning of Scott Browns victory. Yes, I know political science is a buzzkill, he wrote in one. And no one gets paid to say We dont and cant know. But thats what we should be saying. This is the sort of thing that John Balzthe son of veteran Washington Post political reporter Dan Balz, and a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of Chicagomight be referring to when he says the field produces what are, from a journalistic perspective, unhelpful answers.