C I V I L - M I L I T A R Y

F U S I O N

C E N T R E

AFGHANISTAN

RESOURCE DESK
RFI # 51-12

Potential Flood Scenarios & Afghanistans Disaster Management Framework

Rainer Gonzalez Palau Social and Strategic Infrastructure Desk Officer
rainer.gonzalez@cimicweb.org

March 2012

Request: Please provide information pertaining to a likely flood scenario in Afghanistan. What are the legal institutional mechanisms and frameworks in place? Does Afghanistan possess the necessary capabilities to provide assistance in case of severe floods? Is there any opportunity for collaboration with ISAF? Response: The Social and Strategic Infrastructure Desk Officer from the NATO Civil-Military Fusion Centre (CFC) reviewed a wide range of open-source materials, including news articles, reports of governmental and international organisations and academic studies, among others. While large volumes of information are available concerning the institutional and legal frameworks governing disaster management and response, there is little to no information concerning the actual capabilities or resources available for disaster response within the Afghan government. However, experience suggests that the Afghan army and the police often play leading roles, particularly in the initial phases of disaster response operations.

n 04 March 2012, Pajhwok Afghan News reported an avalanche buried the village of Deh Pashin in Shaki district in Badakhshan province. The rescue efforts, which included airlifts and assistance to the affected families, were primarily led by the Afghan National Army (ANA) alongside the Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA). In its most recent incident report concerning the avalanche, dated 08 March, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that 50 people were confirmed dead and that another 140 were believed to be buried under the snow. Subsequently, The New York Times published an article describing how this event had caught authorities unprepared. The article states that the United Nations had flown large amounts of supplies into the area prior to the avalanche as part of a new strategy with dual objectives: (i) to prepare remote mountainous areas for the harsh winter and (ii) to speed up any intervention in case of a disaster. Despite such measures, rescue teams took three days to reach the area hit by the avalanche. According to the Mohammad Daim Kakar, Director General of ANDMA, the impact of the avalanche

The Civil Military Fusion Centre (CFC) is an Information and Knowledge Management organisation focused on improving civil-military interaction, facilitating information sharing and enhancing situational awareness through the web portal, CimicWeb. CFC products are developed with open-source information from governmental organisations, non-governmental organisations, international organisations, academic institutions, media sources and military organisations. CFC products or links to open sourced and independently produced articles do not necessarily represent the opinions, views or official positions of NATO, ISAF or any other organisation.

Afghanistan Resource Desk: Flood Scenarios & Institutional Framework

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could be far surpassed by the effects of floods which are anticipated to start in the coming weeks as winter snows begin to melt. Hence, this document, per the requestors specifications, examines potential flood scenarios for Afghanistan and presents the institutional frameworks in place to enable the Afghan government and other stakeholders to respond.

Likely Flood Scenario

Afghanistans climate varies widely across the seasons and between different parts of the country. According to a Centre for Policy and Human Development (CPHD) report entitled Floods and Droughts: The Afghan Water Paradox, the climate ranges from arid in the South-West to semi-arid in the central, North and East, with some unique conditions in high-mountain areas. Fresh water is abundant in the country, with more than 1,000 cubic meters per person but is distributed unevenly among the different regions of the country. Most of the precipitation falls during the winter in form of snow, which accumulates in the high mountains. This water becomes available when snow melts between April and August. The CPHD report cited above says that the countrys reliance on snowmelt for water makes it possible to predict flooding with some degree of accuracy1. Figure 1 is a Flood Hazard Distribution Map of Afghanistan developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). Created in 2007, this map reflects general trends in elevation and snowfall in order to reflect those areas which are likely to have the greatest geographical vulnerability to flooding.

Figure 1. Afghanistan Flood Hazard Distribution Map

Source: World Health Organization

1

Due to the predictability of floods and droughts in Afghanistan, the CPHD advocates for the development of a monitoring and warning system which includes meteorological stations to collect essential climatic data in the Hindu Kush and generate predictions regarding future floods.

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In 2012, floods are expected to be destructive than in previous years given that Afghanistan is currently experiencing its harshest winter in 20 years, both in terms of temperatures and snowfalls, reports the BBC. The impact of flooding in a specific area will not only be determined by the magnitude of the flood and the surrounding topography but also by the areas socioeconomic vulnerability. For instance, an area such as a district or province with higher levels of poverty might be more vulnerable to floods than an area which is somewhat better off. Greater wealth enables communities to better prepare for disasters, to stockpile supplies, to build retaining walls or to pre-emptively move to a rental property to avoid floodwaters. The National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP) identifies four such vulnerability indicators for each province: poverty, population density, illiteracy and access to a health facility (Table 1).

Table 1. Socioeconomic Factors Associated with Vulnerability to Natural Disasters

Vulnerability Indicator
Laghman Nangharhar Paktika Khost Ghor Dai Kundi Urozgan Zabul Ghazni Kunar Bamian Nuristan Takhar Kunduz Sar-e Pul Badghis Kandahar Helmand Paktiya Parwan Kabul Kapisa Baghlan Faryab Jowzjan Balkh Samangan Badakhshan Loghar Wardak Farah Nimroz Herat Panjshir

Poverty
High High High High High High Low Low High High High High Medium Medium Medium Medium Low Low High Low Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Low Low Medium Low Medium Low

Population Density
High High Low High Low Low Low Low Medium Medium Low Low Medium High Low Low Low Low Medium High High High Medium Medium Medium Medium Low Low Medium Medium Low Low Low Low

Illiteracy
High Medium High Medium Medium Medium High High Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High High High High Low Low Low Low Medium Medium Medium Low Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Low Medium

Access to health facility

Medium Medium Medium Low High High High High Medium Medium Medium Medium Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium Low Low Low Low Medium Medium Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Low Low

Source: Afghanistans National Disaster Management Plan, 2010

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Institutional Framework
While natural disasters cannot necessarily be prevented, experience demonstrates that a strong institutional framework for preparing for and responding to them can lessen the harm they cause. The institutional framework for disaster management in Afghanistan is shaped by the Law on Disaster Response, Management and Preparedness. The law implicitly divides the institutional structure for disaster management into three levels: strategic, coordination and operational (Figure 2). At the strategic level, the National Commission for Disaster Management (NCDM), which is chaired by the Second Vice-president and involves relevant ministries, acts as the lead entity. The Executive Committee of the NCDM consists of representatives of the following ministries: Ministry of Interior (MoI), Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD), Ministry of Public Health (MoPH), Ministry of Finance (MoF), Ministry of Defense (MoD), Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT), Ministry of Education (MoE), Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and Ministry of Womens Affairs (MoWA). According to the Afghan governments National Disaster Management Plan, the NDMC has the following responsibilities: (i) determine direction of disaster management and preparedness (policy formulation, supervision, monitoring); (ii) convene meetings when any major disaster occurs; (iii) declare a National Emergency Situation and specify when the emergency period has ended; (iv) adopt measures to save lives and eradicate causes that lead to disasters; and (v) allocate funding from the National Emergency Fund.

Figure 2. Institutional Disaster Management Structure

STRATEGIC LEVEL
NCDM

COORDINATION LEVEL

ANDMA

National Lead Ministries Provincial Governor's Office (PDMC, Ministerial Departments)

OPERATIONAL LEVEL

District Governor's Office (DDMCs, DDAs, etc.) Local Implementing Partners (CDCs, CBOs, shuras, schools and health facilities)
Source: Adapted from Afghanistans National Disaster Management Plan, 2010

Disaster preparedness, response and management are coordinated by ANDMA, which also acts as the Secretariat of the NCDM. ANDMA is mandated to coordinate and manage disasters and emergency responses in Afghanistan. Ministers, departments, NGOs and provincial and local partners are obliged by law to provide support to ANDMA, which has an office in each of Afghanistans 34 provinces. Currently ANDMA has the following responsibilities: i. ii. Convene meetings of the NCDM; Periodically convene national and provincial platforms to address disaster-related issues;

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iii.

Mobilise a Rapid Response Force to carry out assessments, coordinate stakeholders and provide support at the provincial level in the aftermath of a disaster; iv. Mobilise and facilitate humanitarian assistance to those affected by disasters; v. Coordinate disaster responses with all partners; vi. Promote disaster management plans at the national and provincial levels; vii. Follow up the implementation of disaster management guidelines and provide reporting to the NCDM; viii. Maintain and share information concerning disaster management; and ix. Promote capacity building efforts related to disaster management. Furthermore, ANDMA works closely with international donors to prepare proposals which comply with the Afghan governments national objectives for natural disaster risk/vulnerability reduction. During emergencies, international organisations and NGOs are coordinated by ANDMA via its National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC). The NEOC manages emergency operations, provides communication and warnings regarding disasters, requests resources from multiple provinces (including those not directly affected) to respond to a disaster, coordinates international support and issues instructions and information to central government ministries. Additionally, ANDMA manages the Mobile Rapid Response Task Force (MRRTF), a group which is expected to enhance the response to natural disasters at the provincial level. The MRRTF has the following responsibilities: i. ii. iii. iv. v. Disseminate early warnings; Carry out the initial damage, needs and capacity assessments; Provide advice on using humanitarian assistance efficiently; Synchronise the local, provincial and national responses; and Support the local, district and provincial governments in securing the affected areas.

As detailed in the National Disaster Management Plan, different actors work at the provincial, district and local levels in coordination with but institutionally separate from ANDMA. At the provincial level, Provincial Disaster Management Committees (PDMCs) function as the counterpart of the NCDM. They also are intended to coordinate with other subnational institutions, particularly District Disaster Management Committees (DDMCs) and Community Development Councils (CDCs).2 A PDMC is headed by the provincial governor and supported by representatives from the various province-level departments. The DDMCs are led by the district administrator and are supported, under Afghan law, by District Development Assembly (DDAs)3 as well as by municipal governments. At the local level, NGOs and CDCs are directly involved in responding to emergencies. Local councils (shuras) and community groups along with schools and health centers also frequently provide assistance during an emergency. In order to enhance coordination and avoid overlap among the wide range of stakeholders and institutions involved in preparing for and responding to disasters, the National Disaster Management Plan proposes a cluster approach. The cluster approach has been widely used by different United Nations (UN) agencies, in particular by OCHA. According to OCHA, the aim of the cluster approach is to strengthen partnerships and ensure more predictability and accountability in international responses to humanitarian emergencies, by clarifying the division of labour among organisations, and better defining their roles and responsibilities within the key sectors of the response. In the case of the Afghan government, each sector is led by a ministry or governmental body or a combination of several which are charged with coordinating disaster management within their domain of expertise (Figure 3).
2

CDCs were introduced in 2003 by the government of Afghanistan under the National Solidarity Programme. CDCs are tasked with contributing to social infrastructure and strengthening local participation in local development and planning. 3 DDAs were introduced by the National Area-Based Development Programme and are intended to foster joint actions to promote development from the community level up to the district level. In this respect, they are partly intended to coordinate and link together the work of CDCs.

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Figure 3. Afghan Governments Cluster Approach to Disaster Management

Shelter (MRRD & Independent Directorate of Local Governance) Education (MoE)

Diaster Risk Reduction (MRRD, Ministry of Urban Development & Municipalities)

Agriculture and Livestock (MAIL)

NDMC & ANDMA

Health (MoPH)

Nutrition (MoPH &MRRD)

Water & Sanitation (Ministry of Energy & Water)

Source: Adapted from the National Disaster Management Plan, 2010

Initial Disaster Response

According to ANDMAs Roles and Responsibilities Memorandum, initial assets for responding to a disaster will be provided by the MoD and MoI. The Afghanistan National Army (ANA), under the auspices of the MoD, will assist civilian authorities by, primarily, undertaking search and rescue operations, conducting reconnaissance surveys and damage assessments, providing transportation and carrying out emergency repairs. In a similar way, the MoI will provide assistance to the NDMC through the Afghan National Police (ANP) and fire services departments. The ANP will be in charge of maintaining order and protecting life and property during disasters. Furthermore, the ANP will act as a control agency for search and rescue and will coordinate resources and services. Likewise, international organisations and NGOs provide technical assistance as well as supplies during natural disasters. For instance, during the floods in 2010, the provision of assistance and supplies by UN agencies and NGOs was reportedly vital to support the response efforts. During that crisis food and non-food items were provided primarily by international organisations and NGOs and were delivered by ANA helicopters. By law, according to the Roles and Responsibilities Memorandum, international organisations and NGOs must be coordinated by the ANDMA through a permanent disaster management focal point. NGOs and international organisations are relevant as they frequently have capabilities and resources for disaster management which Afghan government institutions may lack. Under the Afghan governments National Disaster Management Plan the Afghan authorities can draw from the countrys National Emergency Fund (NEF) in order to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of government support to communities affected by a disaster. The NEF provides assistance to provinces which lack the independent resources and capacity to respond to a earthquakes, droughts, floods, landslides, fires, avalanches,
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hailstorms and harsh winters. The National Disaster Management Plan specifies a number of activities which are eligible for NEF support. These include immediate disaster response activities such as damage and needs assessment, the pre-positioning of relief materials in advance of a disaster and the provision of emergency aid (e.g., water, food, shelter, medical care, etc.). In addition, the funds may support broader implementation of the National Disaster Management Plan, including by enhancing staff capacities for disaster management and raising awareness regarding natural disasters among the Afghan population and, in particular, vulnerable groups. Currently, the NEF has very limited resources and is not intended to replace the dominant role of foreign governments, international organisations and NGOs in financing most disaster preparedness and response activities.

Conclusion: Institutions vs Implementation

As this document has highlighted, Afghanistans institutional framework for disaster preparedness and response is in place. However, the recent avalanche in Badakhshan province described by The New York Times shows that provincial and district authorities have neither the resources nor the skills to operationalize many parts of this framework. There thus appears to be a need to take steps to help ensure that the Afghan government and its international partners have the resources and capacities to implement the NDPM and the NEF consistently and without significant external support.

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